Simulation 8Z14 Main

Long Suit or Punt V

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I, II, III and IV]

Jim Munday asked — on a Tuesday but who’s counting — how the numbers would be affected if West had “a little something” on the side but no obvious entry. Suppose we add the Q to the West hand.

Which card would you lead?

	Any vul		West	North	East	South
10 2						1 NT
10 9 8 7 6			Pass	3 NT	Pass	Pass
J 10 9			Pass
Q 8 2
	3 NT

Leads compared: 10, 10, J. The club holding has potential to be an entry, which fuels the case for a heart; but there’s hardly any assurance, so a spade might still be better. I suspect this will be close, but there’s only one way to find out. Spin the wheel!

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 15-17 HCP; balanced (5-card major allowed if doubleton is J-x or better). North: 8-14 HCP; 10-14 revalued points; no 5+ major; no 7+ minor unless 7-2-2-2; no 4-card major unless 4-3-3-3. East: no 8+ card suit; no 7-card suit unless less than 6.5 playing tricks; else less than 7.5 playing tricks or freakness less than 6 (i.e., to bid without a 7-card suit East would need 7.5+ playing tricks and extreme shape).

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

A split decision. The 10 wins at total points and IMPs, while the 10 wins at Won-Lost. In fact the 10 is worst at Won-Lost, losing to the J as well. It might be interesting to see how strong the club holding has to be for the 10 to win at IMPs: Q-9-x? Q-10-x? But then again, it might bore you to death.

I should clarify that results of these simulations (Parts I-V) apply only to the given auction, where partner had no chance to bid below the four level. Some of the cases for a successful short-suit lead would be eliminated if partner eschewed the opportunity to bid at a low level; i.e., if you could rule out a good long spade suit.

Another caveat is that many experts have an agreement that double of 3 NT (in a blind auction) says “Deduce my major,” which is almost surely leader’s weaker or shorter major. Hence, without such a double the chance of finding partner with a good spade suit is diminished, reducing the merit of the short-suit lead.

Results for 10,000 Deals

Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
10	2.7315	9.76	15.82
10	2.7710	9.14	16.89
J	2.7356	7.75	18.10

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
10 vs. 10	-418	+17,590	+135	+41,590	+300
10 vs. J	-245	+86,410	+1584	+144,710	+2005
10 vs. J	+181	+68,820	+1472	+103,120	+1733

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1.	8 4 3 A K 2 Q 6 5 4 3 J 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 9 J 5 3 8 2 A 10 4 3
10 → 4 10 → 3 J → 3	K 7 6 5 Q 4 A K 7 K 9 7 6

2.	A K 9 Q K Q 8 4 3 6 5 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 7 5 4 A J 5 4 2 7 6 J 10
10 → 2 10 → 3 J → 2	J 8 6 3 K 3 A 5 2 A K 9 7

3.	Q 9 6 Q 5 4 2 K 4 2 A K 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 8 7 5 3 K J 6 5 3 10 6 3
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 1	A J 4 A 3 A Q 8 7 J 9 7 5

4.	Q 6 A 3 2 A 6 5 4 3 A 9 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A J 9 8 7 3 4 Q 8 7 J 7 6
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	K 5 4 K Q J 5 K 2 K 10 5 3

5.	Q J 9 A 4 7 6 4 3 A J 9 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		8 6 5 4 3 J 2 A K Q 10 6 4
10 → 3 10 → 3 J → 3	A K 7 K Q 5 3 8 5 2 K 7 5

6.	7 4 K 3 2 K 8 6 2 A K 9 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 9 8 5 3 5 4 A 5 J 7 6 3
10 → 3 10 → 3 J → 2	K Q J 6 A Q J Q 7 4 3 10 4

7.	Q J 7 4 K 5 2 K J 7 6 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 5 4 A K J 3 8 7 6 4 10
10 → 1 10 → 2 J → 1	A 8 6 3 Q 5 2 A Q 3 A 9 4

8.	A K 9 8 A 4 3 K 7 4 10 9 7
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 7 5 3 K Q 2 6 5 2 6 5 4
10 → 2 10 → 3 J → 2	J 6 4 J 5 A Q 8 3 A K J 3

9.	8 6 3 K J 2 7 6 3 A K 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 7 4 A 4 3 Q 8 4 2 J 6 3
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	A K J 9 5 Q 5 A K 5 10 9 7

10.	9 8 5 K 5 3 A K Q 8 3 10 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A J 4 3 J 4 4 A 9 7 6 5 3
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	K Q 7 6 A Q 2 7 6 5 2 K J

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

11.	A K 4 2 A 6 3 2 J 7 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 9 8 3 J 5 4 K 5 K 10 3
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 4	7 6 5 A K Q 3 Q 8 7 4 A 9

12.	A 7 Q 5 K 8 4 3 J 9 7 6 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 6 5 A K 10
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 4	Q J 3 A K J 4 A Q 7 2 5 3

13.	A 8 5 5 4 A 7 5 4 3 A J 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K J 7 6 3 J 2 6 2 K 9 6 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	Q 9 4 A K Q 3 K Q 8 10 7 3

14.	9 8 6 Q 3 A 7 4 A K 10 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K J 7 5 3 5 4 2 6 5 9 7
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	Q 4 A K J K Q 8 3 2 J 6 5

15.	5 4 Q J 3 A Q 8 4 2 J 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 9 8 7 3 A 4 5 3 A K 10 7
10 → 4 10 → 5 J → 4	A K Q 6 K 5 2 K 7 6 9 6 4

16.	Q 5 4 Q 5 K 7 6 K J 7 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 7 6 3 A 2 A Q 8 2 10 9 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A K J 8 K J 4 3 5 4 3 A 5

17.	K 6 Q 3 2 A 8 4 3 2 J 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 9 7 4 Q 7 5 K 9 7 5
10 → 6 10 → 6 J → 6	8 5 4 3 A K J 5 K 6 A 10 4

18.	A Q 5 4 3 K 3 2 K 10 9 6 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 7 4 A J 5 2 A 7 6 5 7 3
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	K 9 8 6 3 K Q Q 8 4 A J 5

19.	5 3 K 5 Q 7 4 2 A J 10 7 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A J 8 7 6 4 A J 4 3 6 6 5
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	K Q 9 Q 2 A K 8 5 3 K 9 4

20.	J 7 J 2 K Q 5 2 K 9 7 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q 9 6 3 K Q 5 3 8 7 4 J
10 → 1 10 → 3 J → 1	K 8 5 4 A 4 A 6 3 A 10 5 4

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

95.	9 5 4 A J 4 2 A J 10 7 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 3 4 3 2 A K Q 7 3 9 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A K 8 7 6 K Q 5 8 6 5 K 6

145.	7 6 5 K Q 5 K 8 K 10 7 6 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 9 8 3 3 A Q 6 4 2 4 3
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 5	A K 4 A J 4 2 7 5 3 A J 9

204.	7 6 A K 5 5 3 K 10 9 6 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 8 5 4 J 3 K Q 8 7 2 A 7
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 5	A K J 9 3 Q 4 2 A 6 4 J 4

225.	A 8 4 K J K 6 4 10 9 5 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 9 7 6 A Q 8 7 5 2 J 6
10 → 4 10 → 6 J → 4	K 5 3 5 4 3 2 A Q 3 A K 7

285.	Q 6 4 A 4 A 7 3 2 10 7 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 5 3 K 5 3 2 K 5 A J 4
10 → 4 10 → 6 J → 4	A K J 7 Q J Q 8 6 4 K 9 5

464.	K 9 4 4 A 7 5 3 A J 9 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 8 7 5 3 A K J 5 3 4 10 7
10 → 0 10 → 5 J → 0	A J 6 Q 2 K Q 8 6 2 K 6 3

480.	K J 9 4 K 5 3 5 3 2 A J 7
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		8 7 5 J 4 A K Q 7 4 9 5 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A Q 6 3 A Q 2 8 6 K 10 6 3

644.	Q 7 4 K 5 3 Q 7 2 K J 7 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 8 6 5 3 Q 4 A K 8 6 4 6
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A K 9 A J 2 5 3 A 10 9 5 3

760.	Q 8 6 A 5 K 5 4 J 10 9 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 5 3 Q J 4 3 A 8 7 3 7
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 4	A J 7 4 K 2 Q 6 2 A K 5 4

948.	7 6 Q J Q 8 5 4 2 A K J 10
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q 5 4 3 2 7 6 3 7 4 3
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	J 9 8 A K 5 4 3 A K 9 6 5

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

1017.	K 6 3 5 4 3 A Q 5 4 3 10 9
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A J 8 5 A K 8 6 J 7 6 4 3
10 → 4 10 → 5 J → 6	Q 9 7 4 K Q J 2 7 2 A K 5

1308.	K J 7 K 5 Q 8 5 3 2 5 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 6 4 A Q 3 2 6 A J 7 6
10 → 3 10 → 6 J → 3	A Q 5 3 J 4 A K 7 4 K 10 9

1454.	9 7 4 A J K 8 6 4 3 2 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 6 5 3 K 5 3 2 A K 6 5
10 → 3 10 → 5 J → 2	A K 8 Q 4 Q 7 5 A J 10 9 7

1776.	K 5 Q 4 2 A 5 3 2 A 10 9 7
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q 9 8 6 4 3 K 8 7 4 5 4
10 → 7 10 → 2 J → 2	J 7 A J 5 3 K Q 6 K J 6 3

1801.	7 6 3 Q 5 K 8 A K J 10 9 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 8 5 4 4 2 A Q 7 6 5 4 6
10 → 0 10 → 0 J → 6	A Q J 9 A K J 3 3 2 7 5 3

2142.	A 7 K 2 Q 8 5 2 10 9 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K Q 9 8 5 4 5 4 A 7 A 7 3
10 → 7 10 → 4 J → 4	J 6 3 A Q J 3 K 6 4 3 K J

2373.	Q J 7 3 K Q J Q 5 3 K 7 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		8 6 5 5 3 A K 7 4 2 9 4 3
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A K 9 4 A 4 2 8 6 A J 10 5

2499.	K 9 3 2 Q 8 7 4 K J 9 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 8 5 3 A 5 6 3 2 10 5
10 → 7 10 → 2 J → 2	7 6 4 K Q J 4 A K 5 A 7 6

2611.	9 8 Q 3 2 A 7 2 K J 9 7 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q 6 5 3 J 5 4 5 3 10 5
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	J 7 4 A K K Q 8 6 4 A 4 3

2638.	K 3 Q 5 4 7 5 3 A J 9 7 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 8 6 5 3 2 A 4 2 10 5
10 → 7 10 → 2 J → 2	9 7 4 A K J K Q 8 6 K 6 3

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

2815.	J 3 Q 4 A 7 5 4 K 10 6 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K Q 9 7 6 5 3 2 Q 8 6 A 4
10 → 6 10 → 2 J → 2	A 8 4 A K J 5 K 3 2 J 9 7

2906.	K 5 3 A 4 3 2 K 8 6 A 9 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 7 6 J 5 7 5 4 6 4 3
10 → 5 10 → 2 J → 2	9 8 4 K Q A Q 3 2 K J 10 7

3050.	J 7 5 A 2 K 8 5 A J 10 6 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q 8 6 4 5 4 7 4 2 7 4
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	9 3 K Q J 3 A Q 6 3 K 9 3

3127.	K 7 6 3 2 K 8 6 5 K 10 9 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 9 8 5 A 5 7 3 2 6 3
10 → 7 10 → 2 J → 2	4 3 K Q J 4 A Q 4 A J 7 4

3628.	9 6 5 A K 2 Q 3 J 10 9 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 8 3 J 5 3 K 8 7 4 2 A 5
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 6	K Q J 7 4 Q 4 A 6 5 K 7 4

3656.	Q 9 5 Q J 3 2 Q 6 2 K 10 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 8 7 6 3 5 A K 7 5 3 7 3
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 5	A J 4 A K 4 8 4 A J 9 5 4

3705.	A 9 3 A 5 3 2 Q 8 7 10 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 6 5 4 Q 4 K 6 5 3 K J 4
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 6	Q J 8 7 K J A 4 2 A 9 7 5

3793.	J 9 4 K J 3 K 7 A J 9 7 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 8 6 5 3 5 A Q 6 5 3 6 4
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 5	A K 7 A Q 4 2 8 4 2 K 10 3

3977.	J 8 7 A 4 K 8 7 5 4 2 6 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 9 3 K 5 2 A 3 A 10 9 7 3
10 → 5 10 → 7 J → 4	A K 6 5 4 Q J 3 Q 6 K J 4

4032.	A J 4 Q 2 Q 8 6 4 2 J 7 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 6 5 K J 3 A 7 A 10 9 3
10 → 3 10 → 6 J → 3	K Q 7 3 A 5 4 K 5 3 K 6 4

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

4153.	K 9 3 2 7 6 4 3 A J 9 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		7 6 5 3 K Q J 4 K Q 2 K 3
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 3	A Q J 8 4 A 5 A 8 5 10 7 6

4508.	A Q 3 3 Q 8 7 6 4 3 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K J 9 6 5 Q 4 A 5 K J 10 7
10 → 7 10 → 5 J → 3	8 7 4 A K J 5 2 K 2 A 9 3

4903.	4 A K 3 Q 8 7 4 3 2 10 7 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 7 6 3 5 2 A 6 J 9 6
10 → 6 10 → 2 J → 2	K 9 8 5 Q J 4 K 5 A K 4 3

4905.	Q 7 5 A Q 7 6 5 4 3 2 A 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 8 4 3 K J 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	K J 9 6 4 3 2 A K 8 K J 7

5002.	K 9 6 K J 5 2 Q 4 3 J 10 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 8 7 3 4 8 5 2 A 6 5
10 → 7 10 → 4 J → 4	5 4 A Q 3 A K 7 6 K 9 7 4

5155.	K Q 7 J Q 8 4 K 9 7 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		8 6 3 A K 4 3 2 K 6 5 3 3
10 → 1 10 → 5 J → 1	A J 9 5 4 Q 5 A 7 2 A J 10

5193.	J 9 3 J 4 3 K 2 A J 10 6 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 8 4 A 2 A 6 5 4 3 9 7 3
10 → 3 10 → 3 J → 6	K Q 7 6 5 K Q 5 Q 8 7 K 5

5261.	J 8 6 A 4 K 6 4 K 10 9 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 7 3 K J 3 2 A 8 7 5 6
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	A Q 5 4 Q 5 Q 3 2 A J 7 5

5567.	A K 7 5 4 8 5 3 K J 6 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 9 8 4 3 A K 3 2 7 6 9 7
10 → 0 10 → 5 J → 0	J 6 5 Q J A K Q 4 2 A 10 5

6005.	A 8 3 Q 4 Q 6 A 10 7 6 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 7 5 4 3 A K 8 5 4 9 5
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	Q J 6 A K J 5 2 7 3 2 K J

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

6675.	A 7 4 J 2 K Q 6 4 2 10 7 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 9 8 5 3 A Q 3 A 5 3 9 6
10 → 5 10 → 6 J → 4	K Q 6 K 5 4 8 7 A K J 4 3

6947.	J 9 Q 5 4 A Q 8 4 K 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K 8 6 5 4 3 J 3 3 J 7 3
10 → 7 10 → 3 J → 3	Q 7 A K 2 K 7 6 5 2 A 10 9

7484.	K 9 6 3 K 7 5 4 2 K 9 7 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 7 5 3 K Q J 4 8 A 6 4
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	A 8 4 A 5 2 A Q 6 3 J 10 3

7716.	9 3 J 4 A 7 5 4 A 9 5 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K J 8 6 4 A K 5 2 6 2 10 6
10 → 1 10 → 5 J → 1	A Q 7 5 Q 3 K Q 8 3 K J 7

7888.	K 4 3 A 4 K 6 5 3 2 J 10 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 8 7 6 K Q 5 3 8 7 9 5 3
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	Q J 9 5 J 2 A Q 4 A K 7 6

7890.	K J Q 2 8 7 6 3 2 A 10 9 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q 9 5 4 3 J 4 5 4 K J 4
10 → 6 10 → 4 J → 3	8 7 6 A K 5 3 A K Q 7 6 3

7966.	K 7 4 Q 2 K 8 6 K J 7 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 6 5 A K 5 4 Q 5 4 3 5
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	A Q J 3 J 3 A 7 2 A 10 9 6

8015.	9 8 J 4 3 A Q 7 A J 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q 7 6 4 5 5 4 2 10 9 7
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	J 5 3 A K Q 2 K 8 6 3 K 3

8084.	9 6 K 4 8 6 5 A K 7 6 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q J 4 3 Q 5 4 3 2 9 3
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	8 7 5 A J 3 2 A K Q 7 J 10

8402.	K J J 4 3 7 4 A J 10 9 7 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q 9 6 4 3 A Q 5 6 3 2 3
10 → 7 10 → 2 J → 2	8 7 5 K 2 A K Q 8 5 K 6 5

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

8578.	7 6 4 A 4 Q 5 2 A J 10 9 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 5 3 K 3 A K 8 6 3 7 4
10 → 2 10 → 3 J → 5	A K Q J Q J 5 2 7 4 K 5 3

8677.	8 5 4 K 4 2 K 2 A J 10 9 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 7 6 3 A 5 A Q 7 5 3 7 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 6	A K Q 9 Q J 3 8 6 4 K 6 3

8925.	J 9 8 Q J 4 2 K 7 4 K J 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 7 6 5 — A Q 8 5 2 10 9 7 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 5	A Q 4 3 A K 5 3 6 3 A 5 3

9103.	8 7 5 K 5 K Q 7 5 3 2 10 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K 4 3 A Q 4 3 6 J 9 5 4
10 → 4 10 → 7 J → 4	Q J 9 6 J 2 A 8 4 A K 7 6

9115.	J 9 7 A Q 4 5 4 2 K 9 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A 6 5 4 3 5 2 A K 7 6 3 10
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 6	K Q 8 K J 3 Q 8 A J 7 6 3

9173.	J 8 6 A 4 8 7 2 K J 7 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 9 7 K Q 5 2 A 6 5 3 10 9
10 → 2 10 → 5 J → 2	A K 5 4 3 J 3 K Q 4 A 6 4

9318.	7 5 A 5 2 8 7 A J 9 7 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K Q J 9 4 Q 3 6 4 3 10 3
10 → 6 10 → 0 J → 0	8 6 3 K J 4 A K Q 5 2 K 6

9592.	A J 9 J 3 K 8 7 K J 10 9 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 8 6 3 4 2 A Q 6 5 4 7 6
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 5	K 7 5 4 A K Q 5 3 2 A 5 4

9753.	8 6 K J 2 8 7 A J 9 7 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 4 3 4 3 A Q 6 5 4 2 K
10 → 3 10 → 2 J → 6	A K 9 7 5 A Q 5 K 3 10 6 3

9912.	J 8 K J 5 K Q 3 2 K J 6 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K 9 7 6 5 3 2 5 4 10 7 4
10 → 7 10 → 1 J → 1	Q 4 A Q 4 3 A 8 7 6 A 9 3

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

9981.	K 9 8 6 A Q 5 7 6 2 A 10 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 3 4 3 2 A Q 8 3 7 5 3
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 3	A 7 5 4 K J K 5 4 K J 9 6

9982.	A J 5 J 2 A 8 3 2 9 5 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K Q 9 8 A 4 Q 6 5 4 J 10 7
10 → 5 10 → 5 J → 5	7 6 4 3 K Q 5 3 K 7 A K 6

9983.	A K J 5 3 A 8 3 2 J 10 9 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 5 4 3 2 K 5 4 K 7 6 4
10 → 3 10 → 3 J → 3	9 8 7 6 A K Q 4 Q 7 6 A 5

9984.	6 5 Q J 2 Q 7 5 4 K J 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 8 4 3 A 4 A 6 2 9 6 5
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	A Q J 7 K 5 3 K 8 3 A 10 7

9985.	J 4 3 4 3 K Q 4 3 A 9 4 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		9 8 7 6 5 A K 5 2 5 2 K 6
10 → 5 10 → 5 J → 5	A K Q Q J A 8 7 6 J 10 7 5

9986.	Q 8 3 3 A Q 8 6 J 10 9 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 4 A Q 5 4 5 3 2 K 7 5
10 → 2 10 → 3 J → 3	A J 7 6 5 K J 2 K 7 4 A 4

9987.	9 5 Q J 2 A Q 8 4 3 K J 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 8 7 3 3 6 5 2 A 9 7 5
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 1	A K 6 4 A K 5 4 K 7 10 4 3

9988.	8 3 Q 3 2 A K 8 7 3 J 9 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 7 4 4 6 4 2 A 10 6 5
10 → 3 10 → 3 J → 3	K 9 6 5 A K J 5 Q 5 K 7 4

9989.	9 5 4 3 A J 3 Q 8 3 K 6 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q J 6 2 A 7 4 2 J 9 7 3
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 5	K 8 7 K Q 5 4 K 6 5 A 10 5

9990.	J 7 4 K J 3 A 6 5 3 2 K J
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K Q 9 6 5 2 Q 7 10 9 7 6 4
10 → 2 10 → 1 J → 1	A 8 3 A Q 5 4 K 8 4 A 5 3

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

9991.	K 6 5 5 K 6 4 3 K J 9 6 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A Q 8 4 3 Q 4 2 Q 8 7 5 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 3	J 9 7 A K J 3 A 2 A 10 7 5

9992.	K 5 Q 2 7 5 3 K J 7 6 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 9 8 6 3 K J 5 K 8 4 A 9
10 → 4 10 → 5 J → 3	A Q 7 4 A 4 3 A Q 6 2 10 4

9993.	Q J 6 A Q 4 6 5 4 2 J 10 5
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		8 5 4 3 J 2 K 3 A K 7 6 3
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 4	A K 9 7 K 5 3 A Q 8 7 9 4

9994.	Q 9 3 K 5 3 5 4 A J 10 9 6
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 8 7 5 4 Q 2 A 6 3 K 7 4
10 → 2 10 → 2 J → 2	A J 6 A J 4 K Q 8 7 2 5 3

9995.	A 6 3 K 2 Q 4 K 10 9 7 5 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		K 9 5 4 Q 4 3 K 8 6 5 3 2 —
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 1	Q J 8 7 A J 5 A 7 A J 6 3

9996.	A Q 9 K 2 K 8 6 5 3 2 6 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		J 7 6 5 4 J 4 4 A K 9 7 3
10 → 1 10 → 1 J → 1	K 8 3 A Q 5 3 A Q 7 J 10 5

9997.	9 5 3 A 6 5 3 2 A 7 6 5 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q 8 7 6 4 5 2 A K 8 4 K 10
10 → 4 10 → 4 J → 5	A K J K Q J 4 3 Q 7 J 9 4

9998.	Q 7 K 3 Q 7 4 3 K 10 9 7 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K J 8 5 4 4 2 K 8 6 J 5
10 → 6 10 → 5 J → 6	9 6 3 A Q J 5 A 5 2 A 6 3

9999.	K 7 5 Q J 2 6 4 3 2 A K 3
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		Q J 8 4 K 4 3 Q 8 9 7 5 4
10 → 2 10 → 3 J → 3	A 9 6 3 A 5 A K 7 5 J 10 6

10000.	Q 6 4 Q 4 3 A K 4 2 K 10 4
10 2 10 9 8 7 6 J 10 9 Q 8 2		A K J 9 5 3 2 8 6 5 9 6 3
10 → 6 10 → 1 J → 1	8 7 A K J 5 Q 7 3 A J 7 5

Simulation 8Z14 Main

Top Long Suit or Punt V

© 2017 Richard Pavlicek