Simulation 8Z12 Main

Long Suit or Punt III

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I and II]

Having shown in Part II that even an unsafe punt (leading a short suit trying to hit partner) is better than a safe lead in your own suit, let’s move up a notch to see just far this unsafety prevails.

Which card would you lead?

Any vul West North East South
J 2 Table 1 NT
10 9 8 7 6 Pass 3 NT Pass Pass
10 9 8 Pass
4 3 2
3 NT

Leads compared: 10, 10, 10. The concern now is that J-2 is much more risky than 10-2, while the safe red suits remain the same. Is a spade still the winner? I would have thought not, but the previous results may be an omen. Let’s find out.

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 15-17 HCP; balanced (5-card major allowed if doubleton is J-x or better). North: 8-14 HCP; 10-14 revalued points; no 5+ major; no 7+ minor unless 7-2-2-2; no 4-card major unless 4-3-3-3. East: no 8+ card suit; no 7-card suit unless less than 6.5 playing tricks; else less than 7.5 playing tricks or freakness less than 6 (i.e., to bid without a 7-card suit East would need 7.5+ playing tricks and extreme shape).

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

Another surprise. Even with J-2 being very unsafe, it still fares much better than a heart at total points or IMPs, though a heart prevails slightly at matchpoints. I am certainly enlightened, and I’ll have to take this one step further hoping to redeem my senses. On to Part IV.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
J 2.6132 9.60 11.63
10 2.5992 6.80 10.91
10 2.5033 4.33 12.89

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
J	2.6132	9.60	11.63
10	2.5992	6.80	10.91
10	2.5033	4.33	12.89

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
J vs. 10 -307 +127,100 +2364 +210,350 +2981
J vs. 10 +95 +261,070 +5260 +409,720 +6382
10 vs. 10 +482 +133,970 +2929 +199,370 +3443

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
J vs. 10	-307	+127,100	+2364	+210,350	+2981
J vs. 10	+95	+261,070	+5260	+409,720	+6382
10 vs. 10	+482	+133,970	+2929	+199,370	+3443

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. 8 6 3
J 4 3
K Q 6 2
A 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 7
K Q
J 7 4 3
K Q 10 7
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 A Q 9 5 4
A 5 2
A 5
J 8 5

2. K 8
Q 3 2
A K 6 5 3
J 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 6 4 3
J 5 4
2
K Q 8 7
J → 1
10 → 2
10 → 2 Q 9 7 5
A K
Q J 7 4
A 10 5

3. 10 7 3
J
K Q J 7 6 5
A 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 8 6 5 4
A 5 3
2
Q 9 8
J → 2
10 → 1
10 → 1 A 9
K Q 4 2
A 4 3
K J 10 6

4. A 8 5
3
K 6 5
Q 10 9 7 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 9 7 6 4 3
Q 5 4 2
A J
A K
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 K Q 10
A K J
Q 7 4 3 2
J 8

5. 10 7 6
A Q 2
A 7 6 3 2
Q 10
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 5 3
3
K J 5
J 9 8 6 5
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 Q 9 8 4
K J 5 4
Q 4
A K 7

6. 8 5 4
A J 4
A Q 5 2
10 9 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 7 6 3
K 5
J 7 3
J 7 6
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 Q 10 9
Q 3 2
K 6 4
A K Q 8

7. 10 6 4
A 3
K Q 7 6 5 4
9 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 9 5 3
K 4 2
3
A Q 10 5
J → 4
10 → 3
10 → 3 K 8 7
Q J 5
A J 2
K J 8 6

8. 9 6 5
K J 3 2
A K 3
10 9 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 10 8 7
5
Q 7 6 2
A 8 5
J → 5
10 → 3
10 → 3 K 4 3
A Q 4
J 5 4
K Q J 6

9. A 9 7
J 5 4
K Q 6 3
K 9 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 8 6
3 2
J 7 5 4
A Q 8 5
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 Q 10 5 4 3
A K Q
A 2
J 10 6

10. Q 7 6
Q J
A J 4 3
K J 10 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 8 3
A 5 4 3
Q 6 5
A 8 6
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 2 A K 9 5 4
K 2
K 7 2
Q 9 7

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

11. A K 7 3
K 3 2
Q 5 2
J 10 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table Q 10 4
5
J 7 4 3
A Q 7 6 5
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 9 8 6 5
A Q J 4
A K 6
K 8

12. 10 9
K Q 4
A J 7 3 2
K 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 8 7 6
5 3 2
Q 6
Q 10 8
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 1 K 5 4 3
A J
K 5 4
A J 7 5

13. A Q
5 3
K J 6 4
J 10 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 9 6 5 4
Q J
A 7 5
A 9 6
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 K 8 7 3
A K 4 2
Q 3 2
K Q

14. K 9 6
Q 3 2
Q 6 4 3
K 9 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 8 5 3
K 4
A J 7
8 7 6
J → 5
10 → 4
10 → 4 10 7 4
A J 5
K 5 2
A Q J 10

15. 6 3
K 4 2
K 6 4
A K 9 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 10 9 8 4
Q 5
J 3
Q J 10
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 1 A 7 5
A J 3
A Q 7 5 2
8 6

16. 9 6
K Q 2
A K J 5
10 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 8 7 4 3
J 4 3
7 3
K J
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 1 A 10 5
A 5
Q 6 4 2
A Q 9 7

17. 8 6 4
4
A Q 7 4 2
A J 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 5 3
A Q 5 3 2
J 3
K Q 10
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 1 A K Q 9 7
K J
K 6 5
9 8 7

18. Q 5 4
5 3
K J 7
A Q 10 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 9 6
Q 4
Q 6 5 2
K 9 7
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 K 8 7 3
A K J 2
A 4 3
J 6

19. Q 8
A J 2
K 7 5
Q 9 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 9 7 6 5 4
—
J 6 3 2
A K 7
J → 4
10 → 2
10 → 2 A 10 3
K Q 5 4 3
A Q 4
J 10

20. K 6 4
5
J 7 4 3 2
A Q 10 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 9 8 5
A K Q
5
J 9 6 5
J → 4
10 → 4
10 → 4 Q 7 3
J 4 3 2
A K Q 6
K 7

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

87. K 10 4
4 2
A J 5 3 2
Q 10 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 6 5 3
A J 5 3
7 6
A 9 8
J → 4
10 → 6
10 → 4 Q 9 8 7
K Q
K Q 4
K J 7 6

151. 7 4
Q J
Q J 6 5
K Q 10 9 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 9 8 3
A 5 4 2
7 4 2
A 7
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 2 A Q 10 6 5
K 3
A K 3
J 8 6

199. 6 3
5 4
A K J 7 2
9 7 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 8 7 5 4
A J
5 3
A J 8
J → 7
10 → 5
10 → 4 A 10 9
K Q 3 2
Q 6 4
K Q 10

221. K 6 3
K 5 3 2
7 4 3
A 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 9 8 7 5
J
A K Q J 6
Q 10 7
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A Q 10 4
A Q 4
5 2
K J 9 8

223. Q 10 5
K 4
K J 7 6
9 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 9 7 6
A Q 5 3
A 3 2
K Q 10
J → 3
10 → 7
10 → 3 A K 8 4 3
J 2
Q 5 4
A J 7

247. K Q 9
A 5 2
5 4 3
K 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
J 3
A K J 7 2
Q 10 9
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 5 A 10 7 6 3
K Q 4
Q 6
A J 6

254. Q 6 5 4
A K Q
J 7 2
J 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 8
4 3
A Q 6 4 3
10 7 5
J → 2
10 → 4
10 → 5 K 9 7 3
J 5 2
K 5
A K Q 8

309. 8 6 4
K J
K 7 2
A J 10 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table Q 10 9 3
5 2
A Q J 4 3
Q 7
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 5 A K 7 5
A Q 4 3
6 5
K 9 6

697. Q 9 6
K 3
Q 7 4 3 2
Q 8 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 8 5
A Q 5 2
5
K J 9 7
J → 4
10 → 7
10 → 4 K 7 4 3
J 4
A K J 6
A 10 5

927. K 9 3
Q J 5
A 7 3
10 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 8 7 6
A 2
K Q 6 5 4
9 6
J → 4
10 → 4
10 → 6 Q 10 5 4
K 4 3
J 2
A K Q J

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

1761. Q 9
K J
7 6 5 3 2
A 10 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 8 5 4 3
A Q 3 2
4
K 9
J → 6
10 → 7
10 → 4 K 7 6
5 4
A K Q J
Q J 8 5

1840. 8 6 3
Q 4 3
Q 3
A Q 10 9 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 9 5
5 2
A K J 7 5
J 7 6
J → 0
10 → 3
10 → 5 A Q 10 7 4
A K J
6 4 2
K 5

2004. K 6 5
A K 3
7 5 4
10 9 8 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 9 8 7 4
Q 2
Q 3
A 7 5
J → 7
10 → 3
10 → 2 10 3
J 5 4
A K J 6 2
K Q J

2346. K 9 3
5 3
A K 4 2
J 9 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 10 7 6 5
A Q 2
J 6 5
10
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 8 4
K J 4
Q 7 3
A K Q 8 6

2353. K 8 6
Q 3 2
A Q 7 5 2
J 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
A 4
J 4
A K 10 9 6 5
J → 3
10 → 7
10 → 3 A Q 10 9 3
K J 5
K 6 3
Q 8

2681. K Q 4 3
K J 5
6 5 2
K J 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 6 5
4
A K Q J 4
10 8 6 5
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A 10 9 7
A Q 3 2
7 3
A Q 7

2694. Q 10 9
K 2
K 5 4
Q J 9 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 5 4 3
Q 5
A Q 6 3 2
A 10
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A K 7 6
A J 4 3
J 7
K 8 5

2932. 8 7
A 2
A J 5 3
Q 10 9 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 10 6 4
5 3
Q 6
J 8 6
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 9 5 3
K Q J 4
K 7 4 2
A K

3093. A K 5
Q J 5 4
6 4 2
Q 9 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 8 7 6
3
A K 7 5 3
A J 5
J → 4
10 → 4
10 → 6 Q 9 4 3
A K 2
Q J
K 10 7 6

3149. K 9 4
5 4
A 7 5 4 3
A J 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 10 8 5 3
A 2
J 2
10 9 5
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 7 6
K Q J 3
K Q 6
K Q 8 7

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

3471. 4 3
K J
K Q J 7 6 4
Q 10 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table Q 8 6 5
A Q 3
5 2
K J 9 5
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 2 A K 10 9 7
5 4 2
A 3
A 8 7

3628. Q 8 6
Q 3
Q J 4
K J 10 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 4 3
K J 4 2
A 7 5 2
9 7
J → 1
10 → 5
10 → 2 A 10 9 7 5
A 5
K 6 3
A Q 6

3648. 8 6 5
K 4
A J 6 3
J 9 8 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 9 3
A Q 3 2
5 4 2
10 5
J → 4
10 → 7
10 → 4 Q 10 7 4
J 5
K Q 7
A K Q 6

4052. 10 9 6
A Q
J 5 3 2
K 9 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 5 4 3
K 4 3 2
A K 6
A 10 6
J → 3
10 → 7
10 → 3 A K Q 8 7
J 5
Q 7 4
Q J 7

4149. Q 7 4
K 3
7 5 3 2
K Q 10 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 8 6 5
A Q 4 2
6
A 9 8
J → 4
10 → 7
10 → 3 A 9 3
J 5
A K Q J 4
J 7 5

4157. A 6 5
A Q 2
7 5 2
K J 10 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 8 4 3
J 3
A K J 4 3
8 5
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 K Q 9 7
K 5 4
Q 6
A Q 9 7

4318. 10 4
K 5 3
Q 7 3
K J 9 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 9 6 5 3
A 4
A 4 2
10 8
J → 7
10 → 5
10 → 4 K 8 7
Q J 2
K J 6 5
A Q 7

4636. Q 9 8 4
K J 3
5 4 2
K J 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 6 5 3
Q 5
A K Q J 7
10 7 5
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A K 10 7
A 4 2
6 3
A Q 9 6

4657. K Q 9
A Q 2
6 4 2
Q J 9 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 7 6 5 3
J 5
A K Q 7 3
7
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A 10 4
K 4 3
J 5
A K 10 6 5

4843. 10 9
A K 3
7 4 3
Q 9 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 5 4 3
J 4 2
Q 5
J 6
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 8 7 6
Q 5
A K J 6 2
A K 10

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

5061. 9 8 6
A K 5
7 4
K 9 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 7 5 3
J 2
J 6 2
Q 7
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 10 4
Q 4 3
A K Q 5 3
A J 10

5067. 5 3
Q J
A J 7 5 4 2
K 10 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 10 9 7
5 4 2
Q 3
7 5
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 8 6 4
A K 3
K 6
A Q J 8 6

5083. 10 9 6
Q 3 2
7 6
A K J 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 7 4
K 4
A K Q 5 4 2
9 8
J → 0
10 → 0
10 → 6 A K Q 5 3
A J 5
J 3
Q 10 5

5233. K 8 6
K J 4 2
J 4 3
K 9 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 9 5 4 3
5
K 5
A 10 7 5
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 10 7
A Q 3
A Q 7 6 2
Q J 6

5704. 10 6 4
Q 5 3
K Q J 7 2
Q 10
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 9 8 3
K 2
5 3
8 7 5
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 7 5
A J 4
A 6 4
A K J 9 6

5809. 10 8 4
K 4
K 7 5 3
A 10 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 7 6 5 3
A Q J 5
4
K 7 5
J → 4
10 → 7
10 → 4 K Q 9
3 2
A Q J 6 2
Q J 8

5900. K 5 4
4 2
Q 5
A K 8 7 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 10 8 7 6
A J 3
7 6 3
J
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 9 3
K Q 5
A K J 4 2
Q 10 9

6322. Q 5
K Q 3
K Q J 7 4 2
J 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 10 8 7 3
4
6 3
Q 9 7 6
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 9 6 4
A J 5 2
A 5
A K 10 5

6918. 8 6 5
A J 4
A K J 4 2
9 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 9 7 4 3
3 2
6 5
Q 10 6
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 Q 10
K Q 5
Q 7 3
A K J 8 7

6926. Q 9 8
J 5 2
K 5
A J 9 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 6 4 3
Q 4
A Q J 7 4
10 8
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 6 K 10 7 5
A K 3
6 3 2
K Q 5

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

6942. 9 7
4 2
K J 7 5 3
A J 10 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 8 5 4 3
A 5 3
A 2
Q 8
J → 7
10 → 6
10 → 4 A 10 6
K Q J
Q 6 4
K 9 7 6

6971. Q 8 3
K Q 3 2
J 7 4
A Q 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 9 6 5 4
5
A K Q 5 2
8 7 6
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 5 A K 10 7
A J 4
6 3
K J 10 5

7427. K 10 8
K 4
K J 6 5 3
K 10 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table Q 9 5 4 3
A 5 3 2
A 7
J 9
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 2 A 7 6
Q J
Q 4 2
A Q 8 7 5

7466. 9 8
Q 3
A 7 6 4 2
K Q J 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 7 5 3
K J 5 4
J 3
A 6
J → 1
10 → 5
10 → 1 A Q 6 4
A 2
K Q 5
10 8 7 5

7868. 10 5
A J 5
Q 6
K J 10 7 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 8 7 4
3 2
A J 5 3 2
A 8
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 5 A Q 9 6 3
K Q 4
K 7 4
Q 9

7889. A Q
Q 3 2
K 7 5
Q 10 9 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 9 7 5 4
A 4
A 6 4
7 6
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 8 6 3
K J 5
Q J 3 2
A K J

8089. K
Q J 2
K 7 3 2
Q J 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 9 8 7 3
A 4
A 5
10 9 6
J → 7
10 → 5
10 → 4 Q 6 5 4
K 5 3
Q J 6 4
A K

8250. Q 7
Q J
K J 7 6 5 3 2
K 10
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 10 9 6 3
5 3
Q
Q J 8 5
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 8 5 4
A K 4 2
A 4
A 9 7 6

8379. K 6 4
A Q
K J 7 4 3
10 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 10 9 8 7
J 4 2
A 5
9 8
J → 7
10 → 2
10 → 2 5 3
K 5 3
Q 6 2
A K Q J 5

8559. Q 4 3
K 4
A J 5 2
J 10 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 7 6
A J 5 2
Q 7 3
K 8 5
J → 1
10 → 5
10 → 2 A 10 9 8 5
Q 3
K 6 4
A Q 7

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

8809. Q 10 6
K J 5
J 5
Q J 10 9 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 9 3
A 4
K Q 7 6 4 3
8 7
J → 3
10 → 4
10 → 7 K 8 7 5 4
Q 3 2
A 2
A K 5

8877. A 7 6
Q 3
Q 7 4
A J 9 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table Q 8 5 4
A J 4 2
A 6 5
10 8
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 2 K 10 9 3
K 5
K J 3 2
K Q 7

8889. Q 10 9 7
Q 5 3
A J 3
K 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 8 6
4
K Q 7 5 2
A 9 7 6
J → 2
10 → 3
10 → 5 A 5 4 3
A K J 2
6 4
Q J 10

8908. 9 5 4
A
A 7 6 5 4
Q 10 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 7 3
K Q J 2
3 2
K 9 8 7
J → 1
10 → 5
10 → 1 K Q 10 8 6
5 4 3
K Q J
A J

9070. 9 7 6
Q J
A Q 3
A 10 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 10 8 5 3
4 3
7 6 2
Q 6
J → 6
10 → 0
10 → 0 Q 4
A K 5 2
K J 5 4
K J 9

9145. 8 4
5 4 3
A J 7 5 2
K Q 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 9 7 6
K Q 2
K 3
J 10 7 6
J → 4
10 → 6
10 → 4 K Q 10 5 3
A J
Q 6 4
A 8 5

9418. Q 9 5
A Q 4
Q 7
10 8 7 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 8 4
K 2
K J 6 4 3
A Q 9
J → 2
10 → 3
10 → 5 A K 7 6 3
J 5 3
A 5 2
K J

9490. 10 9 8
K
K J 5 3
Q J 9 7 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 7 4 3
A Q 3 2
A 7 4 2
A 5
J → 4
10 → 6
10 → 5 A K Q 6 5
J 5 4
Q 6
K 10 8

9763. Q 9 4
5 4 3
K J
K Q 9 8 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 7 6 3
A Q
A Q 7 6 5 4
J
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 7 A K 8 5
K J 2
3 2
A 10 6 5

9834. 8 7 4
K 5
K 6 5
Q J 10 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 6 3
A Q 3 2
A 4 3 2
9 7
J → 3
10 → 7
10 → 5 K Q 10 9 5
J 4
Q J 7
A K 8

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

9981. Q 6 3
2
K J 5 3
A J 10 8 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 5 4
K Q J 4 3
Q 7 4
7
J → 2
10 → 5
10 → 3 K 9 8 7
A 5
A 6 2
K Q 9 5

9982. Q 8 5 3
K Q J
Q 5 3
Q 10 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 6 4
A 3
A J 7
K 9 8 6 5
J → 4
10 → 4
10 → 4 A K 9 7
5 4 2
K 6 4 2
A J

9983. Q 8 5 3
5 4 2
A 4 3
K J 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 4
K J 3
J 7 6
9 7 6 5
J → 2
10 → 4
10 → 2 10 9 7 6
A Q
K Q 5 2
A Q 10

9984. 10 5 3
K 5 3
A J 6
Q 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 8 7 6 4
A J
5 3
K 10 7
J → 4
10 → 2
10 → 2 K 9
Q 4 2
K Q 7 4 2
A J 9

9985. 8 7 5
K Q
K 6 3
K Q 9 8 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 6 3
J 3 2
A 7 5 4 2
J
J → 1
10 → 1
10 → 1 A Q 9 4
A 5 4
Q J
A 10 6 5

9986. 9 5 4
A J
K J 5 3
A 8 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 8 7 6
Q 5 4 3
Q 7 4
K J
J → 2
10 → 4
10 → 3 A Q 10 3
K 2
A 6 2
Q 10 9 7

9987. 8 7 3
A 3
K Q 6 4
Q 10 9 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 9 6 4
Q 5 2
5 3 2
J
J → 6
10 → 1
10 → 1 10 5
K J 4
A J 7
A K 7 6 5

9988. A 4 3
5 4
A 6 4 2
K 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 7 5
K Q J
K 7 3
10 9 6
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 Q 9 8 6
A 3 2
Q J 5
A Q J

9989. Q 6 3
A K 4
Q 6 5
10 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 10 9 7
5 3
4 3 2
K Q 9
J → 5
10 → 3
10 → 3 8 5 4
Q J 2
A K J 7
A J 6

9990. Q 7 3
Q J 4
K 7 4 3
A 8 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 9 8 6 5
5 3
A J 6 2
J 6
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 K 10 4
A K 2
Q 5
K Q 10 9 7

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

9991. K Q 9 4
J 4 2
A J 6
Q 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 8 7 6
A
Q 7 5 3 2
K J 10 9
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 A 10 5 3
K Q 5 3
K 4
A 8 7

9992. 9 7 6
A 4
A J 7 2
10 8 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K Q 10 4 3
3 2
K Q 4
J 6
J → 6
10 → 4
10 → 4 8 5
K Q J 5
6 5 3
A K Q 9

9993. A 9 5
K Q 5 2
J 5 2
K 10 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table 10 8 7 4 3
J 3
K 3
A Q 9 6
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 K Q 6
A 4
A Q 7 6 4
J 8 7

9994. Q 8 6
J 4 2
K J 7 6 5 3
A
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 7 5 3
K Q 3
A
J 10 9 7
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 1 A 9 4
A 5
Q 4 2
K Q 8 6 5

9995. 8 6 3
A
A 3 2
Q J 10 9 7 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A K 10 9 7
5 3
J 7 6 4
A 8
J → 5
10 → 3
10 → 3 Q 5 4
K Q J 4 2
K Q 5
K 6

9996. 8 5 4 3
A J 4
J 7 5
A Q 8
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 9
Q 3
A 6 4 3 2
K 9 7
J → 3
10 → 3
10 → 3 A Q 7 6
K 5 2
K Q
J 10 6 5

9997. A Q 5
J 3
K 7 6 5 3
Q 10 7
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K 10 9 8 7
5 2
A 2
K J 6 5
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 6 4 3
A K Q 4
Q J 4
A 9 8

9998. A 8 4
Q 3 2
J 7 3
A J 6 5
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table K Q 7 6
J
K 6 5 4
Q 9 8 7
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 10 9 5 3
A K 5 4
A Q 2
K 10

9999. 3
K J 5
J 3 2
K Q 10 9 8 6
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A Q 9 7 5 4
A 3
7 6 4
A 7
J → 4
10 → 4
10 → 3 K 10 8 6
Q 4 2
A K Q 5
J 5

10000. 9 7 5 4
A Q J
6 5 4
K Q 9
J 2
10 9 8 7 6
10 9 8
4 3 2 Table A 10 6
4 3 2
A Q 3 2
J 10 7
J → 2
10 → 2
10 → 2 K Q 8 3
K 5
K J 7
A 8 6 5

Simulation 8Z12 Main Top Long Suit or Punt III

	Any vul	West	North	East	South
J 2					1 NT
10 9 8 7 6		Pass	3 NT	Pass	Pass
10 9 8		Pass
4 3 2
	3 NT

1.	8 6 3 J 4 3 K Q 6 2 A 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 7 K Q J 7 4 3 K Q 10 7
J → 3 10 → 3 10 → 3	A Q 9 5 4 A 5 2 A 5 J 8 5

2.	K 8 Q 3 2 A K 6 5 3 J 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 6 4 3 J 5 4 2 K Q 8 7
J → 1 10 → 2 10 → 2	Q 9 7 5 A K Q J 7 4 A 10 5

3.	10 7 3 J K Q J 7 6 5 A 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 4 A 5 3 2 Q 9 8
J → 2 10 → 1 10 → 1	A 9 K Q 4 2 A 4 3 K J 10 6

4.	A 8 5 3 K 6 5 Q 10 9 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 7 6 4 3 Q 5 4 2 A J A K
J → 3 10 → 3 10 → 3	K Q 10 A K J Q 7 4 3 2 J 8

5.	10 7 6 A Q 2 A 7 6 3 2 Q 10
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 5 3 3 K J 5 J 9 8 6 5
J → 3 10 → 3 10 → 3	Q 9 8 4 K J 5 4 Q 4 A K 7

6.	8 5 4 A J 4 A Q 5 2 10 9 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 7 6 3 K 5 J 7 3 J 7 6
J → 3 10 → 3 10 → 3	Q 10 9 Q 3 2 K 6 4 A K Q 8

7.	10 6 4 A 3 K Q 7 6 5 4 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 9 5 3 K 4 2 3 A Q 10 5
J → 4 10 → 3 10 → 3	K 8 7 Q J 5 A J 2 K J 8 6

8.	9 6 5 K J 3 2 A K 3 10 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 10 8 7 5 Q 7 6 2 A 8 5
J → 5 10 → 3 10 → 3	K 4 3 A Q 4 J 5 4 K Q J 6

9.	A 9 7 J 5 4 K Q 6 3 K 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 8 6 3 2 J 7 5 4 A Q 8 5
J → 3 10 → 3 10 → 3	Q 10 5 4 3 A K Q A 2 J 10 6

10.	Q 7 6 Q J A J 4 3 K J 10 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 8 3 A 5 4 3 Q 6 5 A 8 6
J → 2 10 → 5 10 → 2	A K 9 5 4 K 2 K 7 2 Q 9 7

11.	A K 7 3 K 3 2 Q 5 2 J 10 9
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 4 5 J 7 4 3 A Q 7 6 5
J → 2 10 → 2 10 → 2	9 8 6 5 A Q J 4 A K 6 K 8

12.	10 9 K Q 4 A J 7 3 2 K 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 7 6 5 3 2 Q 6 Q 10 8
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 1	K 5 4 3 A J K 5 4 A J 7 5

13.	A Q 5 3 K J 6 4 J 10 8 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 6 5 4 Q J A 7 5 A 9 6
J → 2 10 → 2 10 → 2	K 8 7 3 A K 4 2 Q 3 2 K Q

14.	K 9 6 Q 3 2 Q 6 4 3 K 9 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 5 3 K 4 A J 7 8 7 6
J → 5 10 → 4 10 → 4	10 7 4 A J 5 K 5 2 A Q J 10

15.	6 3 K 4 2 K 6 4 A K 9 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 9 8 4 Q 5 J 3 Q J 10
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 1	A 7 5 A J 3 A Q 7 5 2 8 6

16.	9 6 K Q 2 A K J 5 10 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 7 4 3 J 4 3 7 3 K J
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 1	A 10 5 A 5 Q 6 4 2 A Q 9 7

17.	8 6 4 4 A Q 7 4 2 A J 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 5 3 A Q 5 3 2 J 3 K Q 10
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 1	A K Q 9 7 K J K 6 5 9 8 7

18.	Q 5 4 5 3 K J 7 A Q 10 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 9 6 Q 4 Q 6 5 2 K 9 7
J → 2 10 → 2 10 → 2	K 8 7 3 A K J 2 A 4 3 J 6

19.	Q 8 A J 2 K 7 5 Q 9 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 7 6 5 4 — J 6 3 2 A K 7
J → 4 10 → 2 10 → 2	A 10 3 K Q 5 4 3 A Q 4 J 10

20.	K 6 4 5 J 7 4 3 2 A Q 10 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 9 8 5 A K Q 5 J 9 6 5
J → 4 10 → 4 10 → 4	Q 7 3 J 4 3 2 A K Q 6 K 7

87.	K 10 4 4 2 A J 5 3 2 Q 10 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 6 5 3 A J 5 3 7 6 A 9 8
J → 4 10 → 6 10 → 4	Q 9 8 7 K Q K Q 4 K J 7 6

151.	7 4 Q J Q J 6 5 K Q 10 9 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 8 3 A 5 4 2 7 4 2 A 7
J → 2 10 → 5 10 → 2	A Q 10 6 5 K 3 A K 3 J 8 6

199.	6 3 5 4 A K J 7 2 9 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 7 5 4 A J 5 3 A J 8
J → 7 10 → 5 10 → 4	A 10 9 K Q 3 2 Q 6 4 K Q 10

221.	K 6 3 K 5 3 2 7 4 3 A 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 8 7 5 J A K Q J 6 Q 10 7
J → 2 10 → 2 10 → 5	A Q 10 4 A Q 4 5 2 K J 9 8

223.	Q 10 5 K 4 K J 7 6 9 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 7 6 A Q 5 3 A 3 2 K Q 10
J → 3 10 → 7 10 → 3	A K 8 4 3 J 2 Q 5 4 A J 7

247.	K Q 9 A 5 2 5 4 3 K 8 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		8 5 4 J 3 A K J 7 2 Q 10 9
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 5	A 10 7 6 3 K Q 4 Q 6 A J 6

254.	Q 6 5 4 A K Q J 7 2 J 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 8 4 3 A Q 6 4 3 10 7 5
J → 2 10 → 4 10 → 5	K 9 7 3 J 5 2 K 5 A K Q 8

309.	8 6 4 K J K 7 2 A J 10 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 3 5 2 A Q J 4 3 Q 7
J → 1 10 → 1 10 → 5	A K 7 5 A Q 4 3 6 5 K 9 6

697.	Q 9 6 K 3 Q 7 4 3 2 Q 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 8 5 A Q 5 2 5 K J 9 7
J → 4 10 → 7 10 → 4	K 7 4 3 J 4 A K J 6 A 10 5