Simulation 8Z21 Main

Stayman or Not IV

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Stayman or Not? and Parts II and III]

What about an almost flat hand (4-4-3-2) when the doubleton consists of two honors? Suppose:

West
North
1 NT East
Pass South
? J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Should you use Stayman? Or bid 3 NT directly?

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the South hand fixed. North: 15-17 HCP; balanced; 4-5 spades (if 5 spades, doubleton must be J-x or better). Further, East was constrained not to have any appropriate action (bid or double) over 1 NT; and West not to have extreme shape (freakness 6+) with 7+ playing tricks.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Percent shows how often the contract is made (including with overtrick) and Overtrick Percent how often an overtrick is made. The second table compares the bids directly, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

I thought this would be close, but results clearly favor the spade fit, and the edge is certainly great enough to overcome any loss from revealing information to the defenders. While one example hand is hardly proof, it appears that 4-3-3-3 shape is the only justification to eschew Stayman.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract Trick Average Make Percent Overtrick Percent
3 NT 9.0023 68.33 34.30
4 9.9873 72.30 27.82

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract	Trick Average	Make Percent	Overtrick Percent
3 NT	9.0023	68.33	34.30
4	9.9873	72.30	27.82

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
4 vs. 3 NT +3050 +322,640 +9809 +461,390 +11,175

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
4 vs. 3 NT	+3050	+322,640	+9809	+461,390	+11,175

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (30 for each option). Numbers after each contract show the tricks won by declarer with double-dummy play all-around.

1. A Q 10 8 6
Q 7
A 8 6
K 10 3
K 5 2
A 10 6 3 2
K 10 9
J 6 Table 9
J 9 8
7 5 4 3 2
Q 8 5 4
3 NT → 11
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2. A Q 9 2
8 2
A K 4 3
K J 10
8 6 5
Q J 10 7 6
10 7 5
8 6 Table K 10
A 9 3
9 8 6 2
Q 5 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3. A 8 6 2
A 6
A 10 9
K J 10 5
K 10
Q J 10 9 8 3
5 4 2
Q 3 Table Q 9 5
7 2
K 8 7 6 3
8 6 4
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4. A Q 6 2
A J 8 6
K 7 3
K 8
8 5
Q 10 9 7 3
9 2
Q 6 4 3 Table K 10 9
2
A 10 8 6 5 4
J 10 5
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

5. A K 8 5
A 10
10 8 4
K J 10 6
—
J 9 7 2
K 9 5 3 2
Q 8 5 3 Table Q 10 9 6 2
Q 8 6 3
A 7 6
4
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

6. A K 10 9
A 8 3
10 8 4
K Q 6
Q 8 5
Q 10 9 7 2
K 6 5
5 3 Table 6 2
J 6
A 9 7 3 2
J 10 8 4
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

7. K Q 10 2
A 10 7 3
A K
J 6 5
A 9
Q J 9 8 6
10 9 7 3 2
10 Table 8 6 5
2
8 6 5 4
K Q 8 4 3
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8. A Q 10 8
A 8 2
A 9 2
Q 5 3
K 9 5
Q 9 7 6 3
4
K J 8 4 Table 6 2
J 10
K 10 8 7 6 5 3
10 6
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9. A K Q 2
Q J 9
10 7 5
Q J 3
10 9 8
A 8 6 2
A 8
K 8 6 5 Table 6 5
10 7 3
K 9 6 4 3 2
10 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

10. A K 8 2
J 6 3
A 7 6
K 4 3
10 5
A 2
K 5 4 3 2
Q J 6 5 Table Q 9 6
Q 10 9 8 7
10 9 8
10 8
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

11. A Q 9 5
A 9
K 7 4 3
Q 5 3
K 6
Q J 10 8 7
9 6 5
K 6 4 Table 10 8 2
6 3 2
A 10 8 2
J 10 8
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

12. A K Q 9
Q 3
9 5 4
K Q 8 5
10 5
J 9 7 2
K 10 8 6
10 4 3 Table 8 6 2
A 10 8 6
A 7 3 2
J 6
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

13. A Q 9 6 2
Q 6
A 4 3
K J 6
10 8
J 9 7
K 7 6 2
8 5 4 3 Table K 5
A 10 8 3 2
10 9 8 5
Q 10
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

14. A K 9 8 6
Q J 6
A 9 3
Q 8
10 2
10 9 8 3 2
10 6 4
K 10 4 Table Q 5
A 7
K 8 7 5 2
J 6 5 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

15. Q 10 6 2
A J
K 9 6 2
K Q 5
K 5
10 8 7 6 2
10 8 7 4 3
4 Table A 9 8
Q 9 3
A 5
J 10 8 6 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

16. A Q 10 8
Q J 2
A 6
Q 10 5 3
9 6 5
10 9 8 3
10 5 4 3
J 6 Table K 2
A 7 6
K 9 8 7 2
K 8 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

17. K 6 5 2
A J
A K 8 3
6 5 3
Q 8
Q 9 3
10 9 7 5 2
Q 8 4 Table A 10 9
10 8 7 6 2
6 4
K J 10
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

18. A K 8 5
J 7 3
K 4 3
K J 10
10 6
Q 10 8
A 9 8 5 2
6 5 4 Table Q 9 2
A 9 6 2
10 7 6
Q 8 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

19. K Q 9 5
A Q 8 6
10 4 3
K J
8 2
10 7 3 2
A 8 2
Q 8 4 3 Table A 10 6
J 9
K 9 7 6 5
10 6 5
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

20. K Q 9 2
Q J 7
A 8 6 4
K 4
6 5
A 9 6
K 5 3 2
J 10 6 3 Table A 10 8
10 8 3 2
10 9 7
Q 8 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

137. A K Q 5
Q J
7 4 3
Q J 10 4
9 6 2
7 6 3
A K 10 9 8 5
K Table 10 8
A 10 9 8 2
6 2
8 6 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

170. A K Q 2
Q 8 6
9 3
K Q 6 3
8 5
A 2
K 10 7 6 5 4
J 10 8 Table 10 9 6
J 10 9 7 3
A 8 2
5 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

488. 10 8 6 2
A Q 10
A K 9
Q 8 3
K
8 6
10 6 4 3 2
K J 6 5 4 Table A Q 9 5
J 9 7 3 2
8 7 5
10
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

564. K Q 8 2
A 7
K 9 8
K Q 10 8
A 9
2
A 10 7 6 4 3 2
6 5 4 Table 10 6 5
Q J 10 9 8 6 3
5
J 3
3 NT → 11
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

588. K Q 10 8
Q 7
K 9 7 4
K Q 10
A
A J 9 8 3 2
10 6 5 3
J 8 Table 9 6 5 2
10 6
A 8 2
6 5 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

786. K Q 8 2
A Q 8 7
8 6
K J 6
A
10 9 3
A 10 7 5 3 2
Q 5 3 Table 10 9 6 5
J 6 2
K 9 4
10 8 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

805. A Q 6 2
J 8 6
A 7 5
K J 10
K 9
A Q 9 7 3 2
10 8 4 2
8 Table 10 8 5
10
K 9 6 3
Q 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

862. A K Q 6
Q 8 7
7 5
K Q J 8
8 5
A J
K 10 9 8 4 2
10 5 3 Table 10 9 2
10 9 6 3 2
A 6 3
6 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

994. A Q 9 6
A 8 2
K 10 5 3
Q 3
K 10 8 5 2
Q 9 7
9
K J 10 8 Table —
J 10 6 3
A 8 7 6 4 2
6 5 4
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1091. A K Q 8
Q 10 8
7 4 2
K Q 10
6 5
A 9 7 6 2
10 8
J 5 4 3 Table 10 9 2
J 3
A K 9 6 5 3
8 6
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

1191. K Q 9 8
A J 10 9
6 4
K Q J
A 10 5 2
8 6 3
K 10 7
10 8 4 Table 6
Q 7 2
A 9 8 5 3 2
6 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1223. K Q 10 9
A Q 10 3
10 4
K Q J
8 6
9 7
A 9 7 6 5 2
10 8 3 Table A 5 2
J 8 6 2
K 8 3
6 5 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1285. K Q 10 8
A Q J 7
5 4
K J 10
A 9 5 2
9 8 6 2
A K 2
8 6 Table 6
10 3
10 9 8 7 6 3
Q 5 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1293. A K Q 9
Q J 2
K 4 2
6 5 4
10 8 2
A 10 9 8 7 6
A 10 9 7
— Table 6 5
3
8 6 5 3
K Q J 10 8 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 6 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1309. A K Q 9 2
Q J
8 3 2
K J 6
10 6 5
10 9 6 3 2
A K
5 4 3 Table 8
A 8 7
10 9 7 6 5 4
Q 10 8
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1365. A Q 5 2
A Q
10 9 8
K 10 8 3
K 10 8 6
10
K 5 4 3
Q J 6 5 Table 9
J 9 8 7 6 3 2
A 7 6 2
4
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1399. A 9 8 6
Q 10 6
K 10 5
K Q J
Q 2
A 8
A 7 6
10 8 6 5 4 3 Table K 10 5
J 9 7 3 2
9 8 4 3 2
—
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1410. K 10 8 2
Q J 10
A 8 7 3
K Q
5
A 9 7 6 3
10 9 2
J 6 5 4 Table A Q 9 6
8 2
K 6 5 4
10 8 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1489. A K 10 9
Q J
A 6 3
Q J 10 8
6
A 10 9 8 7 6
7 4 2
K 6 5 Table Q 8 5 2
3 2
K 10 9 8 5
4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

1562. A K 10 9 8
A J 7
7 4 3
K 6
Q
8 2
A K 10 9 8 5 2
J 5 4 Table 6 5 2
Q 10 9 6 3
6
Q 10 8 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

1565. K Q 9 5
9 7
A K 10 2
K Q 6
10 6
A Q J 10 6 3
7 4
8 5 3 Table A 8 2
8 2
9 8 6 5 3
J 10 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2296. K Q 10 8
J 7 3
A 9 5
K Q 8
A 6 5
9
K 8 3 2
J 10 6 4 3 Table 9 2
A Q 10 8 6 2
10 7 6 4
5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2303. K Q 10 9 2
Q 3 2
K 6 4
K Q
A
A J 10 9 8 7
A 9 5
8 6 5 Table 8 6 5
6
10 8 7 3 2
J 10 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2687. A K Q 9
Q J 9 2
8 7 5
K Q
6 5
A 10 8
K 10 6 4 3 2
J 10 Table 10 8 2
7 6 3
A 9
8 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2769. K Q 10 5
A Q 8
8 4
K J 6 3
8 6
9 7
A K 10 9 3 2
Q 10 4 Table A 9 2
J 10 6 3 2
7 6 5
8 5
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

2806. K Q 10 2
Q 8
A 8 6
K Q 8 6
A 9
J
K 10 9 7 5 2
J 10 5 4 Table 8 6 5
A 10 9 7 6 3 2
4 3
3
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3041. A Q 9 2
A 6
K 10 9 3
Q 5 3
K 10
Q 9 8 7
6
K J 10 8 6 4 Table 8 6 5
J 10 3 2
A 8 7 5 4 2
—
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3103. Q 9 8 5
J 3
A K 5 2
K Q J
K
A Q 8 7 6
10 3
8 6 5 4 3 Table A 10 6 2
10 9 2
9 8 7 6 4
10
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3134. A K Q 2
Q J 2
A 6 2
J 6 5
8
A 10 9 8 3
9 8 5 3
Q 8 4 Table 10 9 6 5
7 6
K 10 7 4
K 10 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3443. A K 6 5
Q J 10 6
K 8 6
Q 8
9 2
A
10 9 7 5 4 3
K J 5 4 Table Q 10 8
9 8 7 3 2
A 2
10 6 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

3490. A 8 5 2
Q 9 7
A K 7 6
Q 5
—
A 10 2
9 8 5 4 2
K J 8 6 4 Table K Q 10 9 6
J 8 6 3
10 3
10 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

3699. A K Q 6 5
Q J 9
9 6 3
K 8
9
A 10 8 2
A 4
Q J 6 5 4 3 Table 10 8 2
7 6 3
K 10 8 7 5 2
10
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4056. K Q 5 2
A J 10 2
6 3 2
K Q
10 9 8
9 8 3
A K
J 10 8 5 4 Table A 6
Q 7 6
10 9 8 7 5 4
6 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4059. K Q 9 2
A 3 2
K 8 4
K J 8
10 8
Q J 10 9 8 7
A 10 7 6 2
— Table A 6 5
6
9 5 3
Q 10 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4110. A Q 9 5
9 7 2
A 8
K Q 10 5
K 2
A Q J
10 5 2
J 8 6 4 3 Table 10 8 6
10 8 6 3
K 9 7 6 4 3
—
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4487. Q 10 8 5
A J 8
K 8 3 2
K Q
A K 9 6 2
9 7 6 2
10
J 10 8 Table —
Q 10 3
A 9 7 6 5 4
6 5 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4549. A K 9 5
9 3
K 8 4 3
K Q 3
Q 10
A Q J 10 8 7
7 5
J 6 5 Table 8 6 2
6 2
A 10 9 6 2
10 8 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

4663. A K Q 10 2
Q 6
9 7 3
K Q 5
9 8
9 3 2
A K 10 6 5 2
J 4 Table 6 5
A J 10 8 7
8 4
10 8 6 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

5318. A K Q 2
A 8 7 3
8 5
K J 4
10 8
Q J 10 9 6 2
A 4
Q 10 6 Table 9 6 5
—
K 10 9 7 6 3 2
8 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

5520. A K 8 2
A J 8
10 9 8 7
Q J
9
Q 10 7 6 3 2
5 4 3
K 10 3 Table Q 10 6 5
9
A K 6 2
8 6 5 4
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

5734. A K 10 6 2
Q 9 8
K 9 5
K 3
9 5
A J 10 7 3 2
A
Q 10 6 5 Table Q 8
6
10 8 7 6 4 3 2
J 8 4
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

5848. A Q 10 5
Q 6 2
K 10 7 2
K J
K 2
8
A 9 8 6 5 4
10 6 4 3 Table 9 8 6
A J 10 9 7 3
3
Q 8 5
3 NT → 11
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

6026. K 9 8 6
A Q 7
K 5 3
K 10 5
A 10
J 10 8 6 3 2
A 8 2
8 6 Table Q 5 2
9
10 9 7 6 4
Q J 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

6058. K Q 8 6
A Q 10
10 8
K J 8 6
A 10 5 2
9 8 7 2
K 9 4
10 4 Table 9
J 6 3
A 7 6 5 3 2
Q 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

6463. K Q 6 5
A J 10
7 6
K Q 4 3
10 8
7 6
K 10 8 4 3 2
8 6 5 Table A 9 2
Q 9 8 3 2
A 9 5
J 10
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

6947. K Q 6 5
Q 10 2
A 10 4
K Q 4
—
A 9 7 6
8 7 6 5
J 10 8 5 3 Table A 10 9 8 2
J 8 3
K 9 3 2
6
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

7147. A K Q 6
8 6 3
A K 10
J 8 6
9 8
A J
8 7 6
K Q 10 5 4 3 Table 10 5 2
Q 10 9 7 2
9 5 4 3 2
—
3 NT → 10
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

7296. A Q 10 2
A J 9
8 2
K J 10 4
K
Q 7 2
A 10 7 6 5 4 3
8 6 Table 9 8 6 5
10 8 6 3
K 9
Q 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

7310. A K Q 6 5
Q J 6
6 3 2
K 8
—
A 10 9 7
A 10 8 7 5 4
J 6 5 Table 10 9 8 2
8 3 2
K 9
Q 10 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

7538. A K 6 2
Q 3
K 8 4 2
K 8 5
—
J 10 8 7 6
10 7 6 5 3
10 6 4 Table Q 10 9 8 5
A 9 2
A 9
Q J 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

8180. A K 10 8 2
Q J 3
K 7 5
Q 10
9 5
6
A 10 9 6 4 3 2
K J 5 Table Q 6
A 10 9 8 7 2
8
8 6 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 6 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8192. K Q 9 6 2
A Q 9
6 4 3
K J
10 5
10 8 6
A K 10 9 5 2
8 5 Table A 8
J 7 3 2
8 7
Q 10 6 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8193. A Q 10 8
A 9
7 5 3
K Q J 10
9 2
10 2
A K 10 8 6 4 2
8 4 Table K 6 5
Q J 8 7 6 3
9
6 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8501. A 9 5 2
A Q 9
8 5
K Q 10 8
K Q
3 2
K 10 9 7 6 4 3
J 6 Table 10 8 6
J 10 8 7 6
A 2
5 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8883. A K Q 9
8 3
6 4 2
K Q J 3
10
10 9 7
A K 9 8 7 5 3
6 5 Table 8 6 5 2
A Q J 6 2
10
10 8 4
3 NT → 5
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

8957. K Q 8 6
Q 10 7 3
K 4 2
K Q
A 2
J 9 8 6 2
A 9 5
10 8 6 Table 10 9 5
A
10 8 7 6 3
J 5 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9324. K Q 9 2
6 2
A K 4 3
K 6 4
8 5
A Q J 10 8 3
10 6 2
8 5 Table A 10 6
9 7
9 8 7 5
Q J 10 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9344. K Q 10 8
Q 9 8 2
K 10 8
K Q
9 2
A J 10 6 3
A 9 6
J 4 3 Table A 6 5
7
7 5 4 3 2
10 8 6 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9892. A K Q 9
Q 7
6 3 2
K Q 8 3
8 6
10 2
A 9 8 7 5 4
J 6 5 Table 10 5 2
A J 9 8 6 3
K 10
10 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9896. A Q 10 5
9 6
A 8 5 3
K Q 8
8 2
A Q J 10 7 2
K 10 4
6 4 Table K 9 6
8 3
9 7 6 2
J 10 5 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

9981. K Q 9 6 5
A 10
K 9 4
K 8 6
A 8 2
Q 8 6
10 8 6 3
Q 10 3 Table 10
J 9 7 3 2
A 7 5 2
J 5 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9982. A K 5 2
A 10
K 7 3 2
Q 5 3
Q 9 8 6
Q J 6 3 2
5
J 10 6 Table 10
9 8 7
A 10 9 8 6 4
K 8 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9983. K Q 10 5
A 10
K 10 8
Q J 8 3
A 2
Q J 9 7 3
7 3
K 10 5 4 Table 9 8 6
8 6 2
A 9 6 5 4 2
6
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9984. K Q 10 6
A Q 9 3
A 10 3
Q 5
A 5
J 8 7 6
K 8 5 2
K J 8 Table 9 8 2
10 2
9 7 6 4
10 6 4 3
3 NT → 11
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9985. A Q 8 6
A Q 7
7 6 2
K J 8
K 5
10 9 6
A K 10 8 3
Q 6 3 Table 10 9 2
J 8 3 2
9 5 4
10 5 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9986. A K 8 6 5
A J 2
K 2
J 6 5
Q 10
10 8 7 6
9 8 6 5 3
4 3 Table 9 2
Q 9 3
A 10 7 4
K Q 10 8
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9987. K Q 8 5
6 2
A K 7 4
K 6 5
9 6 2
A J 10
9 8 5 2
Q 10 3 Table A 10
Q 9 8 7 3
10 6 3
J 8 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9988. A K Q 8 6
J 9
K 5 3
K 6 5
9 2
Q 10 3
9 7 6 4
Q 10 8 4 Table 10 5
A 8 7 6 2
A 10 8 2
J 3
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9989. A Q 8 6
A Q 8
7 6
K 10 8 6
K 9 2
10 9 7 6
9 5 4 3 2
Q Table 10 5
J 3 2
A K 10 8
J 5 4 3
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9990. A 8 6 5
A Q 10 3
5 4
K Q 3
K 10 9
9 6
K 7 6 3 2
10 8 6 Table Q 2
J 8 7 2
A 10 9 8
J 5 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

9991. A Q 9 6
A Q 6 3
K 6
Q 10 4
8 5 2
10
10 8 7 4 3 2
K J 8 Table K 10
J 9 8 7 2
A 9 5
6 5 3
3 NT → 7
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9992. A K 9 5 2
A 10 9
10 4 2
K Q
Q 8 6
8 7 3 2
A 9 7 5
J 5 Table 10
Q J 6
K 8 6 3
10 8 6 4 3
3 NT → 11
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9993. A 10 9 6
A 9 7
A K 9 6
J 4
K Q 8
10 2
7 3 2
K 10 8 6 3 Table 5 2
Q J 8 6 3
10 8 5 4
Q 5
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9994. A Q 9 6
A 7 6 3
6 4 3
K Q
5 2
Q 9
A K 10 5 2
8 6 4 3 Table K 10 8
J 10 8 2
9 8 7
J 10 5
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9995. K Q 6 5
A 10
A 10 9 4
Q 4 3
9 8
J 9 6 3
K 3 2
J 10 8 5 Table A 10 2
Q 8 7 2
8 7 6 5
K 6
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9996. A K 10 2
J 10 7 6
A 7 4
K 5
Q 9 6 5
A 9 8 2
K 10 8
J 4 Table 8
Q 3
9 6 5 3 2
Q 10 8 6 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9997. A K Q 10
A J 9
10 5
K 10 8 5
9 8
Q 10 8
A 9 7 3
Q J 4 3 Table 6 5 2
7 6 3 2
K 8 6 4 2
6
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9998. Q 8 5 2
A Q
A 10 8 4
Q J 5
A 10 6
J 10 9 8
9 7 6 5
8 3 Table K 9
7 6 3 2
K 3 2
K 10 6 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

9999. A K Q 6
J 8 7
A K 5 4
8 5
9 8 2
A 9 2
10 8
K Q 10 6 3 Table 10 5
Q 10 6 3
9 7 6 3 2
J 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

10000. K 10 6 5
A 10 7 6
A 5 3
K J
A
Q J 9 8 2
K 10 7 6
8 5 4 Table Q 9 8 2
3
9 8 4 2
Q 10 6 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
K 5 4
Q J
A 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z21 Main Top Stayman or Not IV

1.	A Q 10 8 6 Q 7 A 8 6 K 10 3
K 5 2 A 10 6 3 2 K 10 9 J 6		9 J 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 Q 8 5 4
3 NT → 11 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

2.	A Q 9 2 8 2 A K 4 3 K J 10
8 6 5 Q J 10 7 6 10 7 5 8 6		K 10 A 9 3 9 8 6 2 Q 5 4 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

3.	A 8 6 2 A 6 A 10 9 K J 10 5
K 10 Q J 10 9 8 3 5 4 2 Q 3		Q 9 5 7 2 K 8 7 6 3 8 6 4
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

4.	A Q 6 2 A J 8 6 K 7 3 K 8
8 5 Q 10 9 7 3 9 2 Q 6 4 3		K 10 9 2 A 10 8 6 5 4 J 10 5
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

5.	A K 8 5 A 10 10 8 4 K J 10 6
— J 9 7 2 K 9 5 3 2 Q 8 5 3		Q 10 9 6 2 Q 8 6 3 A 7 6 4
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

6.	A K 10 9 A 8 3 10 8 4 K Q 6
Q 8 5 Q 10 9 7 2 K 6 5 5 3		6 2 J 6 A 9 7 3 2 J 10 8 4
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

7.	K Q 10 2 A 10 7 3 A K J 6 5
A 9 Q J 9 8 6 10 9 7 3 2 10		8 6 5 2 8 6 5 4 K Q 8 4 3
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

8.	A Q 10 8 A 8 2 A 9 2 Q 5 3
K 9 5 Q 9 7 6 3 4 K J 8 4		6 2 J 10 K 10 8 7 6 5 3 10 6
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

9.	A K Q 2 Q J 9 10 7 5 Q J 3
10 9 8 A 8 6 2 A 8 K 8 6 5		6 5 10 7 3 K 9 6 4 3 2 10 4
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

10.	A K 8 2 J 6 3 A 7 6 K 4 3
10 5 A 2 K 5 4 3 2 Q J 6 5		Q 9 6 Q 10 9 8 7 10 9 8 10 8
3 NT → 8 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

11.	A Q 9 5 A 9 K 7 4 3 Q 5 3
K 6 Q J 10 8 7 9 6 5 K 6 4		10 8 2 6 3 2 A 10 8 2 J 10 8
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

12.	A K Q 9 Q 3 9 5 4 K Q 8 5
10 5 J 9 7 2 K 10 8 6 10 4 3		8 6 2 A 10 8 6 A 7 3 2 J 6
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

13.	A Q 9 6 2 Q 6 A 4 3 K J 6
10 8 J 9 7 K 7 6 2 8 5 4 3		K 5 A 10 8 3 2 10 9 8 5 Q 10
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

14.	A K 9 8 6 Q J 6 A 9 3 Q 8
10 2 10 9 8 3 2 10 6 4 K 10 4		Q 5 A 7 K 8 7 5 2 J 6 5 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

15.	Q 10 6 2 A J K 9 6 2 K Q 5
K 5 10 8 7 6 2 10 8 7 4 3 4		A 9 8 Q 9 3 A 5 J 10 8 6 3
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

16.	A Q 10 8 Q J 2 A 6 Q 10 5 3
9 6 5 10 9 8 3 10 5 4 3 J 6		K 2 A 7 6 K 9 8 7 2 K 8 4
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

17.	K 6 5 2 A J A K 8 3 6 5 3
Q 8 Q 9 3 10 9 7 5 2 Q 8 4		A 10 9 10 8 7 6 2 6 4 K J 10
3 NT → 9 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

18.	A K 8 5 J 7 3 K 4 3 K J 10
10 6 Q 10 8 A 9 8 5 2 6 5 4		Q 9 2 A 9 6 2 10 7 6 Q 8 3
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

19.	K Q 9 5 A Q 8 6 10 4 3 K J
8 2 10 7 3 2 A 8 2 Q 8 4 3		A 10 6 J 9 K 9 7 6 5 10 6 5
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

20.	K Q 9 2 Q J 7 A 8 6 4 K 4
6 5 A 9 6 K 5 3 2 J 10 6 3		A 10 8 10 8 3 2 10 9 7 Q 8 5
3 NT → 9 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

137.	A K Q 5 Q J 7 4 3 Q J 10 4
9 6 2 7 6 3 A K 10 9 8 5 K		10 8 A 10 9 8 2 6 2 8 6 5 3
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

170.	A K Q 2 Q 8 6 9 3 K Q 6 3
8 5 A 2 K 10 7 6 5 4 J 10 8		10 9 6 J 10 9 7 3 A 8 2 5 4
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

488.	10 8 6 2 A Q 10 A K 9 Q 8 3
K 8 6 10 6 4 3 2 K J 6 5 4		A Q 9 5 J 9 7 3 2 8 7 5 10
3 NT → 9 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

564.	K Q 8 2 A 7 K 9 8 K Q 10 8
A 9 2 A 10 7 6 4 3 2 6 5 4		10 6 5 Q J 10 9 8 6 3 5 J 3
3 NT → 11 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

588.	K Q 10 8 Q 7 K 9 7 4 K Q 10
A A J 9 8 3 2 10 6 5 3 J 8		9 6 5 2 10 6 A 8 2 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

786.	K Q 8 2 A Q 8 7 8 6 K J 6
A 10 9 3 A 10 7 5 3 2 Q 5 3		10 9 6 5 J 6 2 K 9 4 10 8 4
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

805.	A Q 6 2 J 8 6 A 7 5 K J 10
K 9 A Q 9 7 3 2 10 8 4 2 8		10 8 5 10 K 9 6 3 Q 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

862.	A K Q 6 Q 8 7 7 5 K Q J 8
8 5 A J K 10 9 8 4 2 10 5 3		10 9 2 10 9 6 3 2 A 6 3 6 4
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

994.	A Q 9 6 A 8 2 K 10 5 3 Q 3
K 10 8 5 2 Q 9 7 9 K J 10 8		— J 10 6 3 A 8 7 6 4 2 6 5 4
3 NT → 10 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2

1091.	A K Q 8 Q 10 8 7 4 2 K Q 10
6 5 A 9 7 6 2 10 8 J 5 4 3		10 9 2 J 3 A K 9 6 5 3 8 6
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 K 5 4 Q J A 9 7 2