Simulation 8Z18 Main

Stayman or Not?

by Richard Pavlicek

Expert consensus is not to use Stayman with 4-3-3-3 shape. The lack of ruffing potential often produces the same number of tricks in notrump, which means the only game when that number is nine. Nonetheless, the principle is hardly cast in stone, so a simulation might be enlightening.

Suppose partner opens 1 NT (15-17), next hand passes, and you hold:

West
North
1 NT East
Pass South
? J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Should you use Stayman to seek a spade fit? Or bid 3 NT directly?

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the South hand fixed. North: 15-17 HCP; balanced; 4-5 spades (if 5 spades, doubleton must be J-x or better). Further, East was constrained not to have any appropriate action (bid or double) over 1 NT; and West not to have extreme shape (freakness 6+) with 7+ playing tricks.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Percent shows how often the contract is made (including with overtrick) and Overtrick Percent how often an overtrick is made. The second table compares the bids directly, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

Not even close, as the results are a runaway for 3 NT at any form of scoring and vulnerability. The gain would be even greater in practice, as the direct 3 NT gives away no additional information about opener’s hand to the opponents. For a follow-up see Stayman or Not II.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract Trick Average Make Percent Overtrick Percent
3 NT 8.9430 67.88 26.99
4 9.5768 54.18 13.73

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract	Trick Average	Make Percent	Overtrick Percent
3 NT	8.9430	67.88	26.99
4	9.5768	54.18	13.73

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
3 NT vs. 4 +838 +585,520 +11,422 +949,570 +14,500

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
3 NT vs. 4	+838	+585,520	+11,422	+949,570	+14,500

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (30 for each option). Numbers after each contract show the tricks won by declarer with double-dummy play all-around.

1. A 10 8 6 5
K J
A J 2
K 10 4
K Q
8 2
Q 10 4
Q J 7 6 5 3 Table 9 2
A 9 7 6 5 3
9 6 5 3
8
3 NT → 11
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2. A K Q 5
6 3
A 5 4 2
Q 10 6
9 6
A J 8 7 5
Q 10 3
K J 4 Table 10 8 2
K 9 2
J 9 6
8 7 5 3
3 NT → 7
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3. A K Q 10 2
K 6
A 5 2
10 7 6
9 6
7 5 3
Q J 3
K Q 8 5 4 Table 8 5
A J 9 8 2
10 9 6 4
J 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4. A K Q 2
A J
Q 5 3 2
6 5 3
9 6
K 8 3 2
J 9
Q J 10 8 7 Table 10 8 5
9 7 6 5
A 10 6 4
K 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

5. A K Q 10 9
9 8 5
A Q 6
J 4
8 6
A 3
J 9 5 3 2
Q 10 7 3 Table 5 2
K J 7 6 2
10 4
K 8 6 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

6. A Q 9 6
A 9 6
Q 5
K 10 7 6
K 8
J 5 3 2
A 10 6
J 5 4 3 Table 10 5 2
K 8 7
J 9 4 3 2
Q 8
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7. A 9 6 5
A 9 5
A Q 10 6
Q 7
8
K 7 3
5 4 2
K 10 8 6 5 3 Table K Q 10 2
J 8 6 2
J 9 3
J 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8. K Q 10 8
K 9 8
A Q 2
Q J 4
A 9 6 5
J 7 6
6 5 4 3
8 6 Table 2
A 5 3 2
J 10 9
K 10 7 5 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9. A K 6 2
A 3 2
A 4 3 2
Q 5
Q 9 5
K J 9 8 5
Q 10 9
4 3 Table 10 8
7 6
J 6 5
K J 10 8 7 6
3 NT → 7
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

10. K 10 9 6
A 8 6
A 9
K Q J 5
Q 8 2
J 9 7 3
Q J 5 4
10 4 Table A 5
K 5 2
10 6 3 2
8 7 6 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

11. K 10 8 2
A K J 5
Q 10 5
K 7
9
9 8 7 3
A 9 3
Q 8 6 5 3 Table A Q 6 5
6 2
J 6 4 2
J 10 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

12. A K 9 8
K J 6
J 10 6 4
K 8
Q 5 2
9 8 7 5
9 5
J 10 6 4 Table 10 6
A 3 2
A Q 3 2
Q 7 5 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

13. Q 9 8 2
K 3
A Q J 3
K 7 5
A 10 5
8 5
9 6 5
Q 10 6 4 3 Table K 6
A J 9 7 6 2
10 4 2
J 8
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

14. K Q 8 6
A 9 7 6
A Q 4
Q 3
10 9 5
J 5 3 2
3 2
K 10 8 7 Table A 2
K 8
J 10 9 6 5
J 6 5 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

15. A K 6 2
A K 7
10 5
J 7 5 4
10 5
J 6 2
J 9 6 4
K 10 8 3 Table Q 9 8
9 8 5 3
A Q 3 2
Q 6
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

16. K 10 9 8 2
A K 7
A 6
Q J 8
A Q 5
J 8 5 2
Q 9 5 4
K 6 Table 6
9 6 3
J 10 3 2
10 7 5 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

17. A Q 8 5
A K J
5 4 3
Q 5 3
K 9 6 2
6 3
A Q 10 2
J 10 6 Table 10
9 8 7 5 2
J 9 6
K 8 7 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

18. K 9 8 5
A K 3
A Q 9 2
J 6
Q 10 6 2
J 8 7 6
J 10 3
10 5 Table A
9 5 2
6 5 4
K Q 8 7 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

19. K 9 6 2
A 6 3
A J 10 3
K 3
A 10 5
9 5
Q 4
J 8 7 6 5 4 Table Q 8
K J 8 7 2
9 6 5 2
Q 10
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

20. A Q 9 8 5
K 9 2
A 4 3
K 10
2
7 6 5
J 9 5 2
J 8 7 4 3 Table K 10 6
A J 8 3
Q 10 6
Q 6 5
3 NT → 10
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

124. A 10 8 6
K 8
A J 10
Q J 7 5
9
A 6 3
Q 6 4 3 2
K 8 4 3 Table K Q 5 2
J 9 7 5 2
9 5
10 6
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

314. K Q 10 9
K J 6
A Q 6
7 5 3
A
A 8 3 2
J 10 9 5 4 3
10 4 Table 8 6 5 2
9 7 5
2
K Q J 8 6
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

335. K Q 9 2
7 6
A J 3
K Q 7 3
10
A J 9 8 3 2
10 9 2
8 6 5 Table A 8 6 5
K 5
Q 6 5 4
J 10 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

480. A K Q 5
9 8 3
A Q J 6
J 5
8
K J 7 2
10 9 5 4 3 2
K 10 Table 10 9 6 2
A 6 5
—
Q 8 7 6 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

494. A K 10 8
K 7 5
A 9 6 4
Q J
—
J 6 3
Q 10 5 3 2
K 10 6 5 4 Table Q 9 6 5 2
A 9 8 2
J
8 7 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

528. A Q 9 8
8 7
A Q J 6
K J 7
K 10
A K J 6 2
9 5
Q 8 4 3 Table 6 5 2
9 5 3
10 4 3 2
10 6 5
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

675. A 9 8 5
A K 5
10 9
K Q 8 3
2
J 7 6
A Q 4 2
J 7 6 5 4 Table K Q 10 6
9 8 3 2
J 6 5 3
10
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

1380. A K 6 2
A J 8 5
J 6 3
K 4
10 9
K 9 7 6 3 2
A
Q J 8 3 Table Q 8 5
—
Q 10 9 5 4 2
10 7 6 5
3 NT → 10
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2017. A K Q 10
K J 7
9 5
K J 8 3
9 5 2
8 5 3
A Q J 10 2
Q 6 Table 8 6
A 9 6 2
6 4 3
10 7 5 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2108. A K 10 8
A K 6 3
5 3
Q 7 5
Q 9 2
9
A Q 10 9 6 4
8 4 3 Table 6 5
J 8 7 5 2
J 2
K J 10 6
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

2177. K Q 10 8
A K 9
J 10 9 3
Q 10
A 9 6
8 3 2
A Q 6 5
J 8 7 Table 5 2
J 7 6 5
4 2
K 6 5 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2235. K Q 9 6
A 7
Q J 10
K Q 4 3
8 5
K J 5
A 9
J 10 8 7 6 5 Table A 10 2
9 8 6 3 2
6 5 4 3 2
—
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2525. A K 8 6
A K 9
J 10 4 3
8 6
9
J 7 6 5 3 2
A Q 6 2
Q 4 Table Q 10 5 2
8
9 5
K J 10 7 5 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2618. Q 9 8 5
A 5
A Q 10 3
Q J 7
K 10
K J 9 8 7 2
9 4
8 5 3 Table A 6 2
6 3
J 6 5 2
K 10 6 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2790. K Q 10 2
A 7 5
Q 2
K Q 10 8
A 9 5
K J 9 8 6 3
9
7 5 3 Table 8 6
2
A J 10 6 5 4 3
J 6 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2876. A K Q 8
K J 8 5
Q J 10
5 4
10 6
—
9 6 5 4 3 2
K Q J 8 3 Table 9 5 2
A 9 7 6 3 2
A
10 7 6
3 NT → 9
4 → 6 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2885. A K Q 5
K J 6
Q J 10 5
10 7
8 6 2
A 5 3
9 4
Q J 8 6 4 Table 10 9
9 8 7 2
A 6 3 2
K 5 3
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

2969. A 10 8 6
A J 8
A Q 5 2
J 5
K 9 2
K 7 6
J 9 6 4 3
8 3 Table Q 5
9 5 3 2
10
K Q 10 7 6 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3000. K Q 5 2
K 7 3
A Q 6 2
Q 3
10 9 8
A J 6 5
10 9 5 3
6 5 Table A 6
9 8 2
J 4
K J 10 8 7 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3236. K Q 9 8
A 3
Q J 9 6
K 8 4
A 2
J 9 8 7 2
—
Q J 10 7 5 3 Table 10 6 5
K 6 5
A 10 5 4 3 2
6
3 NT → 10
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

3525. K Q 9 5
A K 9 5
A 4 3
J 6
A 10 8 6 2
3
Q J 9
K 8 4 3 Table —
J 8 7 6 2
10 6 5 2
Q 10 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3827. A K Q 10
K 2
J 6 5 4
Q 10 6
9 6 5 2
A J 8 6
A Q
K 4 3 Table 8
9 7 5 3
10 9 3 2
J 8 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3830. K Q 10 5
A 2
Q 10 5
K J 7 6
9 6
K J 9 6 5 3
A 6 2
Q 3 Table A 8 2
8 7
J 9 4 3
10 8 5 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

3946. K 10 6 2
K J 7
A 10 3
K Q 4
Q 9
A
Q J 5 4
J 10 8 6 5 3 Table A 8 5
9 8 6 5 3 2
9 6 2
7
3 NT → 10
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4103. K Q 10 8 5
K 3
Q J 6
K Q 10
A
A J 8 7 6 2
10 4 3
J 5 3 Table 9 6 2
9 5
A 9 5 2
8 7 6 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4125. A K Q 5
K J 5 3
10 4 3
Q 10
10 2
A 9 7 6 2
A Q 2
6 4 3 Table 9 8 6
8
J 9 6 5
K J 8 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4595. A 6 5 2
K 9
A Q J 6
Q 10 5
K Q 9 8
6 3
5 4
K J 6 4 3 Table 10
A J 8 7 5 2
10 9 3 2
8 7
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4833. K Q 6 5
A K 3
Q J 2
10 8 6
10 9 2
J 8 5 2
5
K Q J 7 4 Table A 8
9 7 6
A 10 9 6 4 3
5 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4903. K 6 5 2
K 3 2
A Q
Q J 10 5
A
9 7
10 9 6 5 4 2
K 8 7 6 Table Q 10 9 8
A J 8 6 5
J 3
4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

4975. A K Q 10 8
J 3
J 4 2
K Q 8
9 6
A K 9 8 7 5
—
J 7 6 4 3 Table 5 2
6 2
A Q 10 9 6 5 3
10 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

5413. A Q 9 5
A J 2
Q J 9 5
J 8
8 2
9 7 6 3
10
K Q 10 6 5 3 Table K 10 6
K 8 5
A 6 4 3 2
7 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

5458. K Q 5 2
7 2
A Q 9 6
K J 6
A 8
K J 9 8 6 3
J 10 5
Q 8 Table 10 9 6
A 5
4 3 2
10 7 5 4 3
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

5474. A Q 10 6
A K 7
Q 10 6 2
J 8
K 9 8
9 8 6 2
J 5 3
K 5 4 Table 5 2
J 5 3
A 9 4
Q 10 7 6 3
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

5713. Q 9 8 5
A K 7
Q 4
K Q 7 5
K 10
9 6 2
A 9 6 5 3 2
10 6 Table A 6 2
J 8 5 3
J 10
J 8 4 3
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

5797. A Q 10 6
8 5
A Q 10 5
K Q 7
9
A J 9 7 3 2
J 3
J 8 6 3 Table K 8 5 2
K 6
9 6 4 2
10 5 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7172. A K 10 8
K J 7 3
A J 9
10 3
Q
A 9 2
10 4 3
K Q J 7 5 4 Table 9 6 5 2
8 6 5
Q 6 5 2
8 6
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7424. A K Q 9
K 3 2
9 4
K Q 7 3
8 5 2
9 7 6 5
A Q J 3 2
J Table 10 6
A J 8
10 6 5
10 8 6 5 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7482. A Q 10 9
A 2
J 6 3
K Q 6 4
6 5
K 8 6
A Q 9 5 4 2
J 3 Table K 8 2
J 9 7 5 3
10
10 8 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7484. A K 10 9
A K 8 6
J 6 2
6 3
8 6
J 7 2
A 5 3
K 10 8 7 5 Table Q 5 2
9 5 3
Q 10 9 4
Q J 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7733. K Q 8 5
K 7 5
Q 6 2
K Q 10
A 10
J 6 3
A 9
J 8 7 6 5 4 Table 9 6 2
A 9 8 2
J 10 5 4 3
3
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

7909. A Q 8 5
K 6 2
A Q 6 5
8 7
K 10 2
A 5 3
10
K Q J 6 5 3 Table 9 6
J 9 8 7
J 9 4 3 2
10 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

7971. K Q 10 2
A K J 6
A 3 2
8 4
A 8
9 7
J 10 5
K Q J 10 5 3 Table 9 6 5
8 5 3 2
Q 9 6 4
7 6
3 NT → 7
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8087. A K 10 6
5 3
A J 3
K Q 4 3
Q 8
A K J 8 7 2
10 9 5
7 6 Table 9 5 2
9 6
Q 6 4 2
J 10 8 5
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8392. K Q 9 8
A K 9 8
10 4
K 6 3
A 10
5 3 2
J 9 5 3 2
J 7 4 Table 6 5 2
J 7 6
A Q 6
Q 10 8 5
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8493. K 9 6 2
A K 2
A 6 3
Q J 7
5
7 6 3
Q 5 4 2
K 10 8 6 5 Table A Q 10 8
J 9 8 5
J 10 9
4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8603. A K Q 5
A 8 3 2
A 4 2
5 4
10 8 6
9 6
Q 10 6 5 3
Q 6 3 Table 9 2
K J 7 5
J 9
K J 10 8 7
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8697. A K Q 6
K 8 7 3
A 3 2
5 3
10 5 2
J 9 6 5
Q J 6 4
J 6 Table 9 8
A 2
10 9 5
K Q 10 8 7 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8756. A 10 5 2
A 9 2
Q J 4 3
K J
8 6
K J 8 7 6
2
Q 10 7 6 5 Table K Q 9
5 3
A 10 9 6 5
8 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8875. Q 8 5 2
A K J 6
Q 4
Q J 7
9 6
7 5
A 9 5 3 2
10 8 4 3 Table A K 10
9 8 3 2
J 10 6
K 6 5
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

8984. A K 6 2
J 6
A Q 9 3
J 10 8
—
K 9 7 5 3 2
10 6 4
K 7 6 5 Table Q 10 9 8 5
A 8
J 5 2
Q 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

9048. A K Q 5
J 5 2
A Q 9
J 7 4
2
9 7
J 10 6 5 4
K 8 6 5 3 Table 10 9 8 6
A K 8 6 3
3 2
Q 10
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9115. A K 8 2
8 6
A 6 4
K Q 4 3
9 6 5
K J 9 5 2
Q J
10 8 7 Table Q 10
A 7 3
10 9 5 3 2
J 6 5
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9355. A K Q 10
A K 8 3
10 2
10 8 5
9 8
J 9 7 5
A J 9 6 5 3
J Table 6 5 2
6 2
Q 4
K Q 7 6 4 3
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9593. A K Q 5
5 2
Q J 6 5
K 8 3
10 9
K J 9 8 7 3
A 10 4
7 4 Table 8 6 2
A 6
9 3 2
Q J 10 6 5
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9703. A K Q 6
8 3
Q 6 4
K Q 5 3
10 2
A K 9 7 6 2
J 10
10 8 6 Table 9 8 5
J 5
A 9 5 3 2
J 7 4
3 NT → 6
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9720. Q 6 5 2
A K 9 7
A 3
K 10 7
A K
6 5
10 9 6 4 2
Q 8 6 3 Table 10 9 8
J 8 3 2
Q J 5
J 5 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9790. A Q 10 2
A K 6 5
6 3
K 4 3
9 8
J 7 2
A 10 9 4 2
8 7 6 Table K 6 5
9 8 3
Q J 5
Q J 10 5
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9861. A 9 6 5
A K 6
Q J 5
Q 10 8
—
J 8 5 3
9 4 2
K J 7 6 4 3 Table K Q 10 8 2
9 7 2
A 10 6 3
5
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9896. K Q 9 8
A K 3
Q 10 5
K 6 4
A 10 5
9 8 7 6 5 2
3
Q J 8 Table 6 2
J
A J 9 6 4 2
10 7 5 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 7 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9975. A K 8 2
K 8 2
J 4
K Q J 8
Q 10 9 6 5
9 5
A Q 9 6
10 7 Table —
A J 7 6 3
10 5 3 2
6 5 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 8 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

9981. A K 8 6
A K 9 7
J 3 2
7 6
9
6 3 2
A 10 9 6 4
J 10 8 4 Table Q 10 5 2
J 8 5
Q 5
K Q 5 3
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9982. K Q 5 2
K J 2
A 4 3
K 8 7
8 6
A 8 6
J 10 9 6 2
Q 10 5 Table A 10 9
9 7 5 3
Q 5
J 6 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9983. A K 10 6
A 9 7
Q 9 4 2
K J
9 8
K J 8 3
J 10 6 5
10 7 4 Table Q 5 2
6 5 2
A 3
Q 8 6 5 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9984. K Q 6 2
A 9 7 5
A 10 6
K 7
A 8
K 8 6
Q J 9 5 4
10 6 5 Table 10 9 5
J 3 2
3 2
Q J 8 4 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9985. K Q 9 5 2
A 9 8
Q J 3
K Q
—
6 3 2
A 10 9 6 2
10 8 6 5 4 Table A 10 8 6
K J 7 5
5 4
J 7 3
3 NT → 10
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9986. A K 8 2
6 5
A 10 6
K Q J 8
10 5
A K J 9 8 2
5 2
6 5 3 Table Q 9 6
7 3
Q J 9 4 3
10 7 4
3 NT → 7
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9987. A K 8 6
J 8 3 2
A Q 2
K 8
Q 9
K
J 9 5 4
Q J 7 6 5 3 Table 10 5 2
A 9 7 6 5
10 6 3
10 4
3 NT → 11
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9988. A 10 8 5 2
A 2
A 3 2
Q J 4
K
J 7 5
Q 10 9 6 5
K 8 6 3 Table Q 9 6
K 9 8 6 3
J 4
10 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9989. A 10 9 2
A K J 6
6 4
Q J 3
K Q 8 5
5 2
A Q J 10
10 8 5 Table 6
9 8 7 3
9 5 3 2
K 7 6 4
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9990. A 10 5 2
A K 2
A 4
Q 8 6 4
9 8
7 6 5 3
Q 10 9 3 2
10 3 Table K Q 6
J 9 8
J 6 5
K J 7 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

9991. A Q 9 8
A J 7
A 3
Q 10 7 4
K 5 2
K 8
J 10 6 4 2
K 5 3 Table 10 6
9 6 5 3 2
Q 9 5
J 8 6
3 NT → 12
4 → 12 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9992. K Q 9 2
A K 7 3
A 9
10 7 5
A 10
J 8 5
J 6 4 2
J 8 6 4 Table 8 6 5
9 6 2
Q 10 5 3
K Q 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9993. Q 10 9 2
A K 6
A J
K 8 7 4
A 8 6
9
Q 6 5 4 3 2
Q 6 3 Table K 5
J 8 7 5 3 2
10 9
J 10 5
3 NT → 10
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9994. Q 10 9 5
A 7
A Q 10 2
K Q 10
K 6
K 9 6
J 9 6 5
J 6 5 4 Table A 8 2
J 8 5 3 2
4 3
8 7 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9995. A Q 5 2
A 9
A 4 2
Q 10 7 6
K 9 6
K J 6 5
J 9 5
K J 5 Table 10 8
8 7 3 2
Q 10 6 3
8 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9996. A Q 8 6
J 8
A Q 3
K 7 5 3
K 10 9
K 9 6
10 9 6 4 2
8 6 Table 5 2
A 7 5 3 2
J 5
Q J 10 4
3 NT → 8
4 → 9 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9997. A K 5 2
K J 5 3
Q 10
K 8 7
Q 6
9 7 6
J 9 6 5 3
J 10 5 Table 10 9 8
A 8 2
A 4 2
Q 6 4 3
3 NT → 9
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9998. K 9 8 6 2
A K 3
A Q 9
J 6
A
J 9 7 2
10 5 4
K 10 8 4 3 Table Q 10 5
8 6 5
J 6 3 2
Q 7 5
3 NT → 8
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

9999. A 10 9 2
K J 3 2
A 10
K Q 8
K 8
9 7 6
Q 5 4 3
J 7 4 3 Table Q 6 5
A 8 5
J 9 6 2
10 6 5
3 NT → 9
4 → 11 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

10000. K 9 6 5
K 8 7 5
A Q 4
Q J
10
J 6 3
10 9 3
10 7 6 5 4 3 Table A Q 8 2
A 9 2
J 6 5 2
K 8
3 NT → 9
4 → 10 J 7 4 3
Q 10 4
K 8 7
A 9 2

Simulation 8Z18 Main Top Stayman or Not?

1.	A 10 8 6 5 K J A J 2 K 10 4
K Q 8 2 Q 10 4 Q J 7 6 5 3		9 2 A 9 7 6 5 3 9 6 5 3 8
3 NT → 11 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

2.	A K Q 5 6 3 A 5 4 2 Q 10 6
9 6 A J 8 7 5 Q 10 3 K J 4		10 8 2 K 9 2 J 9 6 8 7 5 3
3 NT → 7 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

3.	A K Q 10 2 K 6 A 5 2 10 7 6
9 6 7 5 3 Q J 3 K Q 8 5 4		8 5 A J 9 8 2 10 9 6 4 J 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

4.	A K Q 2 A J Q 5 3 2 6 5 3
9 6 K 8 3 2 J 9 Q J 10 8 7		10 8 5 9 7 6 5 A 10 6 4 K 4
3 NT → 8 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

5.	A K Q 10 9 9 8 5 A Q 6 J 4
8 6 A 3 J 9 5 3 2 Q 10 7 3		5 2 K J 7 6 2 10 4 K 8 6 5
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

6.	A Q 9 6 A 9 6 Q 5 K 10 7 6
K 8 J 5 3 2 A 10 6 J 5 4 3		10 5 2 K 8 7 J 9 4 3 2 Q 8
3 NT → 9 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

7.	A 9 6 5 A 9 5 A Q 10 6 Q 7
8 K 7 3 5 4 2 K 10 8 6 5 3		K Q 10 2 J 8 6 2 J 9 3 J 4
3 NT → 9 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

8.	K Q 10 8 K 9 8 A Q 2 Q J 4
A 9 6 5 J 7 6 6 5 4 3 8 6		2 A 5 3 2 J 10 9 K 10 7 5 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

9.	A K 6 2 A 3 2 A 4 3 2 Q 5
Q 9 5 K J 9 8 5 Q 10 9 4 3		10 8 7 6 J 6 5 K J 10 8 7 6
3 NT → 7 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

10.	K 10 9 6 A 8 6 A 9 K Q J 5
Q 8 2 J 9 7 3 Q J 5 4 10 4		A 5 K 5 2 10 6 3 2 8 7 6 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

11.	K 10 8 2 A K J 5 Q 10 5 K 7
9 9 8 7 3 A 9 3 Q 8 6 5 3		A Q 6 5 6 2 J 6 4 2 J 10 4
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

12.	A K 9 8 K J 6 J 10 6 4 K 8
Q 5 2 9 8 7 5 9 5 J 10 6 4		10 6 A 3 2 A Q 3 2 Q 7 5 3
3 NT → 9 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

13.	Q 9 8 2 K 3 A Q J 3 K 7 5
A 10 5 8 5 9 6 5 Q 10 6 4 3		K 6 A J 9 7 6 2 10 4 2 J 8
3 NT → 8 4 → 9	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

14.	K Q 8 6 A 9 7 6 A Q 4 Q 3
10 9 5 J 5 3 2 3 2 K 10 8 7		A 2 K 8 J 10 9 6 5 J 6 5 4
3 NT → 9 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

15.	A K 6 2 A K 7 10 5 J 7 5 4
10 5 J 6 2 J 9 6 4 K 10 8 3		Q 9 8 9 8 5 3 A Q 3 2 Q 6
3 NT → 8 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

16.	K 10 9 8 2 A K 7 A 6 Q J 8
A Q 5 J 8 5 2 Q 9 5 4 K 6		6 9 6 3 J 10 3 2 10 7 5 4 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

17.	A Q 8 5 A K J 5 4 3 Q 5 3
K 9 6 2 6 3 A Q 10 2 J 10 6		10 9 8 7 5 2 J 9 6 K 8 7 4
3 NT → 8 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

18.	K 9 8 5 A K 3 A Q 9 2 J 6
Q 10 6 2 J 8 7 6 J 10 3 10 5		A 9 5 2 6 5 4 K Q 8 7 4 3
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

19.	K 9 6 2 A 6 3 A J 10 3 K 3
A 10 5 9 5 Q 4 J 8 7 6 5 4		Q 8 K J 8 7 2 9 6 5 2 Q 10
3 NT → 9 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

20.	A Q 9 8 5 K 9 2 A 4 3 K 10
2 7 6 5 J 9 5 2 J 8 7 4 3		K 10 6 A J 8 3 Q 10 6 Q 6 5
3 NT → 10 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

124.	A 10 8 6 K 8 A J 10 Q J 7 5
9 A 6 3 Q 6 4 3 2 K 8 4 3		K Q 5 2 J 9 7 5 2 9 5 10 6
3 NT → 9 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

314.	K Q 10 9 K J 6 A Q 6 7 5 3
A A 8 3 2 J 10 9 5 4 3 10 4		8 6 5 2 9 7 5 2 K Q J 8 6
3 NT → 9 4 → 7	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

335.	K Q 9 2 7 6 A J 3 K Q 7 3
10 A J 9 8 3 2 10 9 2 8 6 5		A 8 6 5 K 5 Q 6 5 4 J 10 4
3 NT → 6 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

480.	A K Q 5 9 8 3 A Q J 6 J 5
8 K J 7 2 10 9 5 4 3 2 K 10		10 9 6 2 A 6 5 — Q 8 7 6 4 3
3 NT → 9 4 → 7	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

494.	A K 10 8 K 7 5 A 9 6 4 Q J
— J 6 3 Q 10 5 3 2 K 10 6 5 4		Q 9 6 5 2 A 9 8 2 J 8 7 3
3 NT → 9 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

528.	A Q 9 8 8 7 A Q J 6 K J 7
K 10 A K J 6 2 9 5 Q 8 4 3		6 5 2 9 5 3 10 4 3 2 10 6 5
3 NT → 8 4 → 11	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

675.	A 9 8 5 A K 5 10 9 K Q 8 3
2 J 7 6 A Q 4 2 J 7 6 5 4		K Q 10 6 9 8 3 2 J 6 5 3 10
3 NT → 9 4 → 8	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

1380.	A K 6 2 A J 8 5 J 6 3 K 4
10 9 K 9 7 6 3 2 A Q J 8 3		Q 8 5 — Q 10 9 5 4 2 10 7 6 5
3 NT → 10 4 → 7	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

2017.	A K Q 10 K J 7 9 5 K J 8 3
9 5 2 8 5 3 A Q J 10 2 Q 6		8 6 A 9 6 2 6 4 3 10 7 5 4
3 NT → 7 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2

2108.	A K 10 8 A K 6 3 5 3 Q 7 5
Q 9 2 9 A Q 10 9 6 4 8 4 3		6 5 J 8 7 5 2 J 2 K J 10 6
3 NT → 7 4 → 10	J 7 4 3 Q 10 4 K 8 7 A 9 2