Simulation 8Z09 Main

Trump Lead Part IV

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I, II and III]

Now suppose your trumps are J-2 instead of 3-2, where a trump lead is more likely to lose a trump trick. Would this change the picture?

Which card would you lead?

Any vul West North East South
A J 9 2 Table 1
J 2 Pass 1 NT¹ Pass 2
J 3 2 Pass 4 Pass Pass
J 4 3 2 Pass
4
1. forcing (6-12)

Leads compared: 2, 2, 2. I suspect the increased jeopardy in leading from J-2 will reverse the results, returning the 2 to the fore. What do you think?

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 5+ spades; 4+ hearts; 13-14 total points (minimal for better chances to set); freakness at most 7. North: 4+ hearts; not 4+ spades; 11+ support points (a stretch perhaps but leaving higher hopes to set). East: inappropriate hand for an overcall or takeout double.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

As anticipated, the risky trump lead does not overcome the advantage in curbing ruffs. Another way of looking at it: Holding J-2, J-3-2 and J-4-3-2, leading from the longest jack is surely safest, especially with declarer likely short in the suit. Did we learn anything? Who knows, but a hand with all four jacks marks a fitting end to this project.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
2 3.2156 38.44 40.55
2 3.2557 40.81 40.07
2 3.2782 41.28 40.75

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
2	3.2156	38.44	40.55
2	3.2557	40.81	40.07
2	3.2782	41.28	40.75

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2 +567 +143,460 +3174 +213,760 +3728
2 vs. 2 +201 +27,690 +664 +40,090 +773
2 vs. 2 +378 +115,770 +2515 +173,670 +2961

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2	+567	+143,460	+3174	+213,760	+3728
2 vs. 2	+201	+27,690	+664	+40,090	+773
2 vs. 2	+378	+115,770	+2515	+173,670	+2961

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. Q 6
A 5 4 3
A Q 9 5
8 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
9 8 6
K 10 8 6 4
Q 10 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 10 8 5 4 3
K Q 10 7
7
A K 9

2. 8 7 5
Q 8 7 4
A Q 8 7
A 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 3
10 9 6
K 10 9 5 4
K Q 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 6 4
A K 5 3
6
9 7 5

3. 10
K Q 7 5
Q 10 9 7 5 4
10 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 4
9 6 3
A 8 6
A K 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 5 3
A 10 8 4
K
Q 7 5

4. 8 7
A 9 8 7
Q 10 8 4
A 10 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
6 5 4
A K 6 5
Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 5 4 3
K Q 10 3
9 7
K 8

5. 10 7
A 7 4 3
K Q 7 5
Q 10 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
8 6 5
A 10 8 6 4
A 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 5
2 → 5 K 8 5 4 3
K Q 10 9
9
K 9 8

6. 8 6
A K Q 5
Q 9 8 7
8 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
10 8 4
A K 10 6
Q 10 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 5 4 3
9 7 6 3
5 4
A K

7. 8
Q 9 6 3
A Q 9 7 6 5
9 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6 4
K 7 5
K 10 4
A 10 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 7 5 3
A 10 8 4
8
K Q 5

8. 6 4
K 10 9 8
10 4
A Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5
A 7 5
A 9 8 7 5
K 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 7 3
Q 6 4 3
K Q 6
7

9. 10
K 9 8 6 5
K 10 6 4
A 9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 4 3
Q 3
A Q 8 7 5
Q 10 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 K Q 7 6 5
A 10 7 4
9
K 8 6

10. 10 5 4
Q 10 8 3
K Q 4
A 10 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
7 6 4
A 8 7 6 5
K Q 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 8 6 3
A K 9 5
10 9
8 5

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

11. Q 8
A 8 7 4
K Q 6 5 4
10 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 3
9 6 3
A 10 8
A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 7 6 4
K Q 10 5
9 7
K 8

12. 8
K 7 5 4 3
8 7 5 4
A K 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 4
10 9
K 10 9
Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 1 10 7 6 5 3
A Q 8 6
A Q 6
7

13. 6
A 6 5 3
K 10 9 4
K 8 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 5 3
10 9 7
A Q 8 5
A 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
K Q 8 4
7 6
Q 10

14. 8
10 9 6 3
A 10 9 4
K Q 9 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
A Q 5
K Q 8 6
8 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 3
K 8 7 4
7 5
A 10

15. 5
K 10 9 5 4
9 8 6 4
K Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
Q 6
K Q 10 7
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
A 8 7 3
A 5
9 6

16. 7 6
A K 8 5
K 10 8 5
10 9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
Q 7 6
Q 7 6 4
A Q 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 8 5 4
10 9 4 3
A 9
K 8

17. Q
K Q 8 7
K 10 7 4
10 9 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 3
A 10 5
Q 8 6 5
K Q 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 8 7 5 4
9 6 4 3
A 9
A 6

18. Q 8
10 9 8 7 3
A 5
K Q 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4 3
A 5
K 10 9 8 7 6 4
7 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 10 7 6 5
K Q 6 4
Q
A 10 8

19. Q
10 6 5 4
A K 10 8 6 5
10 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 3
9 8 7
9 7 4
A K Q 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 4
A K Q 3
Q
9 8 6

20. Q 7 3
Q 10 6 3
A K 9
Q 10 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6
9 5 4
8 6 5 4
A K 9 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 5 4
A K 8 7
Q 10 7
7

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

412. 7
K 10 5 4
9 6 5 4
A K 10 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
Q 6 3
K Q 10 8 7
Q 9 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 8 6 5 3
A 9 8 7
A
8 6

426. Q
9 8 5 4
Q 10 8 7 6
A K 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 4
Q 10 7
A K 9 5
Q 10 9 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 6 3
A K 6 3
4
7 6

471. 8 6 5
A Q 10 9 5
Q 6
K Q 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
3
A 10 9 8 7 5 4
10 9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 7 4 3
K 8 7 6 4
K
A 8

495. Q
K Q 8 6 5
10 7 6 5
K Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
A 10
K Q 9
9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 7 6 3
9 7 4 3
A 8 4
A

615. K
K 8 7 5
Q 10 7 4
Q 8 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 3
6 4
K 9 8 6
A K 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 10 8 6 5 4
A Q 10 9 3
A 5
10

1017. 3
10 9 8 4
K 9 8
A K 7 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 6
Q 7
A Q 10 5
Q 10 9 8
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 8 7 5 4
A K 6 5 3
7 6 4
—

1232. 5 4
K Q 9 8 4
Q 9 7 4
K 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
10 5
K 8 6 5
A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 7 3
A 7 6 3
A 10
10 8

1324. 7 4 3
A 10 8 5
10 9 8
A K 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
9 3
A K 7 5 4
10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 6 5
K Q 7 6 4
Q 6
Q

1462. 7
K Q 9 5 3
8 7 6
K Q 10 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 4 3
A 10
A Q 9 5
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 6
8 7 6 4
K 10 4
A

1525. 6
10 7 6 3
10 8 7
A K Q 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
Q 9 5
A K Q 9
10 9 7
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 7 3
A K 8 4
6 5 4
8

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

1622. Q 3
10 9 6 3
A Q 9 8 6
K 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4
K 7 5
10 5 4
A Q 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 5
A Q 8 4
K 7
10 9

1776. Q 10 4
A K 10 8
Q 10 6 4
9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5
7 6 5
K 9 8 7
A Q 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 7 6 3
Q 9 4 3
A 5
K 10

2081. 5
K 10 9 4
A 7 6 5 4
Q 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 4
7 6 3
K Q 8
A 9 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 Q 10 7 6 3
A Q 8 5
10 9
K 10

2165. 6 3
Q 7 6 5
A Q 10 4
K 10 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
K 3
9 8 7 5
A Q 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 10 8 5 4
A 10 9 8 4
K 6
6

2459. 8 5
Q 10 9 6 5
K Q 9 8
K 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q
8 4
10 7 5 4
A Q 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 7 6 4 3
A K 7 3
A 6
10 9

2661. 6 5
Q 7 4 3
A K 10 9 8
Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10
K 6 5
7 5 4
A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 1
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4 3
A 10 9 8
Q 6
K

2773. 10
10 6 4 3
Q 5 4
A K 10 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5 4
K 7
A K 7 6
Q 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 8 7 3
A Q 9 8 5
10 9 8
—

2954. Q 10
Q 8 6 3
K Q 10 9 7
10 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 4
K 9 5
A 8 5 4
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K 8 6 5 3
A 10 7 4
6
K Q 9

3026. —
K Q 9 5
9 8 7 5 4
K 10 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8 5
A 10 7
K Q 6
Q 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
8 6 4 3
A 10
A 7

3116. Q
K 10 9 3
K 7 6 5
Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 4
A 7 6
A 9 8
K 8 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 6 5 3
Q 8 5 4
Q 10 4
A

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

3387. —
6 5 4 3
K Q 10 9
A 10 9 8 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 6 3
A K 8
7 5 4
K Q 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 K Q 8 5 4
Q 10 9 7
A 8 6
5

3429. 6
A 8 6 4
8 5 4
A Q 9 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
K 7 5
K Q 9 6
K 10 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 8 5 4 3
Q 10 9 3
A 10 7
—

3466. —
10 8 7 4
A 10 9 8 7
Q 10 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 4 3
A Q 5
Q 5
A K 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 7 6 5
K 9 6 3
K 6 4
9

3532. K 10 6
K 9 5 3
Q 9 4
A 10 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
Q 7 6
K 10 8 7 5
K 9 8 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 8 5 4 3
A 10 8 4
A 6
Q 7

3740. 5 4
K 7 6 3
8 4
A K 9 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
Q 5
A 10 9 7 6 5
10 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 10 8 6 3
A 10 9 8 4
K Q
Q

3753. —
10 9 8 7
K 7 6 5
A Q 8 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6 5 4
A K 4
10 9
K 10 9 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 3
Q 6 5 3
A Q 8 4
—

4026. 7 5
Q 7 6 5
K 10 5
A Q 9 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
K 8 3
A Q 8 6 4
10 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K Q 8 6 4
A 10 9 4
9 7
K 7

4248. 6 4
A K 9 7
Q 10 9 8 6 4
8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
8 6 5
A K 5
K 10 9 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 K 10 8 5 3
Q 10 4 3
7
A Q 5

4356. 8 3
K 9 7 5 3
A Q 9 4
9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q
Q 8
10 7 6 5
A 10 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 7 6 5 4
A 10 6 4
K 8
K Q

4554. 10
K 9 8 4
A 10 9 6
K 7 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5 3
10 7 3
Q 7 4
A Q 10 8
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 Q 8 7 6 4
A Q 6 5
K 8 5
9

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

4733. 8
Q 10 8 5
A Q 7 6
Q 10 9 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 10
9 4 3
K 9 8 4
K 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 7 6 5 4 3
A K 7 6
10 5
A 5

4962. 8
10 9 5 4
A 7 6 4
K Q 9 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 6
8 6 3
Q 8 5
A 10 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 10 7 5 4 3
A K Q 7
K 10 9
8

5046. Q 5
Q 8 7 6
A K 10 5 4
10 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
K 9 3
9 7 6
A 9 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 6 4 3
A 10 5 4
Q 8
K Q

5833. Q 7
K 8 7 4
K 10 9
K 10 7 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6
Q 9 6
Q 6 4
A Q 9 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 5 4 3
A 10 5 3
A 8 7 5
—

6310. K 8 3
K 8 6 4
Q 8 6
A 9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
Q 9 3
K 10 7 5 4
K Q 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 5 Q 10 6 5 4
A 10 7 5
A 9
10 6

6503. K Q 6
Q 10 9 6 5
Q 10 5
K 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4
7 3
K 9 8 7 6
A 10 9 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 8 7 5 3
A K 8 4
A 4
Q 6

6554. 6
10 8 7 5
9 8 7
A K Q 8 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 4 3
K 9 6
A K Q 10
9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 8 7 5
A Q 4 3
6 5 4
10

6609. 10 6
A 9 8 3
10 8 7 5
K Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4 3
Q 6 5
K Q 4
A 9 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 5
K 10 7 4
A 9 6
6

6701. Q
Q 8 6 5
K 10 9 6 5
K Q 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 4
K 9 4
Q 8 7
A 10 8 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 7 5 3
A 10 7 3
A 4
7 6

7204. —
K 10 7 5
Q 10 9 7 6 5 4
10 9
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 8 7
Q 8 3
A 8
A 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 Q 6 5 4 3
A 9 6 4
K
K Q 5

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

7294. 10
K Q 4 3
Q 9 7 5
K 10 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 5
10 7 5
A 10 8 4
Q 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 8 7 6 4 3
A 9 8 6
K 6
A 5

7384. K 4
10 9 8 6
K Q 10 9 8
K 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 5
K 7 4
6 5 4
A Q 9 8 6
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 10 8 7 6 3
A Q 5 3
A 7
10 7

7397. 6
9 8 7 5
A K 9 6 5
K 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 4
K 6 4
10 8 4
A Q 10 8
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 10 5 3
A Q 10 3
Q 7
7 5

7400. 10 7
K 8 7 5 4
K Q 8 7
K 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
Q 6
9 5 4
A Q 10 9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 5 4 3
A 10 9 3
A 10 6
8

7422. Q 3
K 10 6 5 3
K 10 9 5 4
10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
Q 9
A 8 6
Q 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 10 8 6 5 4
A 8 7 4
Q 7
A K

7456. —
8 6 5 3
9 6 5 4
A Q 8 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 10 8
A K 4
10 7
K 10 9 7
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 7 6 5 4 3
Q 10 9 7
A K Q 8
—

7796. 6 5
9 8 6 5
K 10 7
A K 10 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
Q 7
A Q 9 6 5
Q 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 3
A K 10 4 3
8 4
6

7803. K 5 3
Q 8 4 3
Q 6 4
A Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
K 7 6
K 10 9 8 7
K 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 Q 10 7 6 4
A 10 9 5
A 5
8 5

7865. —
K 6 5 4
K 9 7 6 5
8 7 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 4 3
A Q 7
Q 4
K Q 10 9
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 6 5
10 9 8 3
A 10 8
A

8161. —
Q 8 5 3
Q 8 7 6
K 9 8 7 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 7 6
A K 4
9 5
A Q 10 6
2 → 6
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 5 4 3
10 9 7 6
A K 10 4
—

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

8178. K
10 7 5 4 3
K Q 6 4
A 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 3
A 6
10 9 8 7 5
K Q 9
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 7 6 5 4
K Q 9 8
A
10 7 6

8334. 6
A 9 7 3
Q 8 7 5
K 10 8 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 10
K 10 5
K 10 9 4
9 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 8 7 5 4 3
Q 8 6 4
A 6
A Q

8591. 4
K 10 9 5
K Q 8 7 4
Q 8 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 6
Q 4 3
A 10 9 5
K 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 10 7 5 3
A 8 7 6
6
A 10 9

8926. 3
K 10 8 6
A Q 7 5 4
10 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
Q 7 5
K 9 8 6
A 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 5 K 10 8 6 5 4
A 9 4 3
10
K Q

8958. 10
7 6 5 3
A 7 6
K Q 10 9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 4
K 9 4
K Q 10 5
A 8 6
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 7 5 3
A Q 10 8
9 8 4
5

9134. Q 4
Q 10 8 5 3
Q 9 8
K Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5
K 7
K 10 7 6
A 9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 3
A 9 6 4
A 5 4
7

9184. 7
A 8 6 4
K Q 8 6 4
10 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 4 3
Q 7 3
10 7 5
A K Q 9
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 6 5
K 10 9 5
A 9
7 6

9220. 8
9 7 6 4
Q 10 9 8 7 6
A 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 5
A K
A K 5 4
9 7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
Q 10 8 5 3
—
K Q 8

9608. 8 5
Q 10 9 4
A 10 6
A 9 8 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 4
6 5 3
Q 7 5 4
K Q 10 7
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 Q 10 7 6 3
A K 8 7
K 9 8
5

9973. 3
A 7 5 3
A Q 8 5 4
9 8 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 4
Q 6 4
10 7 6
A K 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 8 5
K 10 9 8
K 9
Q 10

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

9981. K 7 3
9 8 7 6
A K 6 4
Q 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6
K 4 3
Q 10 9 5
A 9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 8 5 4
A Q 10 5
8 7
K 10

9982. 10 6
K Q 10 5
10 9 5
K Q 10 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5
A 9 6
K 8 7 6 4
9 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 8 7 4 3
8 7 4 3
A Q
A 8

9983. 10 4
8 7 4 3
A 8 4
A K 9 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5
A K 5
10 9 6 5
Q 10 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 7 6 3
Q 10 9 6
K Q 7
8

9984. K
9 8 6 4
K Q 7 6 5 4
Q 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 4
10 5 3
A 9
A 10 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 8 7 6 5 3
A K Q 7
10 8
K 9

9985. 7 3
A 10 9 8
9 6 4
A K 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 4
K 5 3
A 10 8 7
Q 9 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 5
Q 7 6 4
K Q 5
10

9986. Q
9 8 4 3
A 10 9 4
A Q 8 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 3
A K
7 6 5
K 10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 6 4
Q 10 7 6 5
K Q 8
—

9987. 5 3
A K 6 4
A 9 6
10 8 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6
9 8 5
K Q 8 5 4
A 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
Q 10 7 3
10 7
K Q

9988. —
Q 10 8 7 5
K 10 8 7 6
A 9 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 7 3
6
A 9 5 4
K 10 8 6
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 2 K 10 6 5 4
A K 9 4 3
Q
Q 7

9989. 3
A 10 9 8
A 7 6 4
Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 4
7 6 3
K 10 8 5
A 10 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 8 7 6 5
K Q 5 4
Q 9
K 8

9990. 6 4
A 10 9 6
K 9 7 6
K 10 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
Q 7 5
A Q 10 5
Q 9 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 5
K 8 4 3
8 4
A 8

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

9991. 8 6
K 10 9 3
K Q 7
K 9 7 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 3
7 5 4
A 9 8 6 5
A Q 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 5 4
A Q 8 6
10 4
10 8

9992. Q 5 3
Q 9 5 3
Q 8 4
A Q 10
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4
10 8 6
A 10 9 7 6 5
K 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 6
A K 7 4
K
9 7 5

9993. 6 3
A 6 4 3
K Q 10 7 5
Q 8
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
K 10
A 8 6 4
K 9 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 8 5 4
Q 9 8 7 5
9
A 10

9994. 8 6
Q 8 7 3
10 8 5
A K Q 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
K 10 4
A 7 6 4
10 9 8 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 5 Q 10 7 5 4 3
A 9 6 5
K Q 9
—

9995. 10 7
A Q 6 3
K 9 8 7
Q 10 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4
K 8 4
10 6 5
A 9 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 8 5 3
10 9 7 5
A Q 4
K

9996. —
Q 10 7 6 4
K 8 7 6 5
A 6 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 4
9 5
A 10 9 4
K 10 9 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 10 7 6 5 3
A K 8 3
Q
Q 8

9997. 5
Q 9 8 7 3
Q 9 8 7
A Q 5
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 3
6 5
A K 5
K 10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 8 6 4
A K 10 4
10 6 4
8

9998. K
Q 6 4 3
A Q 10 9 7
10 8 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
9 8 7
8 5 4
A K 9 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 2 10 8 7 6 5 3
A K 10 5
K 6
Q

9999. 7
Q 9 4 3
K 10 9 6 4
A 9 7
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 5
10 8 6
A 8
K Q 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 2 K 10 6 4 3
A K 7 5
Q 7 5
10

10000. Q
Q 9 8 7
10 7 5
A Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2
J 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 3
K 10 4
A 9 6 4
K 10 8
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 8 6 5 4
A 6 5 3
K Q 8
5

Simulation 8Z09 Main Top Trump Lead Part IV

	Any vul	West	North	East	South
A J 9 2					1
J 2		Pass	1 NT¹	Pass	2
J 3 2		Pass	4	Pass	Pass
J 4 3 2		Pass
	4
		1. forcing (6-12)

1.	Q 6 A 5 4 3 A Q 9 5 8 7 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 7 9 8 6 K 10 8 6 4 Q 10 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	10 8 5 4 3 K Q 10 7 7 A K 9

2.	8 7 5 Q 8 7 4 A Q 8 7 A 10
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		3 10 9 6 K 10 9 5 4 K Q 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 10 6 4 A K 5 3 6 9 7 5

3.	10 K Q 7 5 Q 10 9 7 5 4 10 9
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 6 4 9 6 3 A 8 6 A K 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 8 5 3 A 10 8 4 K Q 7 5

4.	8 7 A 9 8 7 Q 10 8 4 A 10 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 6 5 4 A K 6 5 Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 10 5 4 3 K Q 10 3 9 7 K 8

5.	10 7 A 7 4 3 K Q 7 5 Q 10 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 8 6 5 A 10 8 6 4 A 7 6
2 → 5 2 → 5 2 → 5	K 8 5 4 3 K Q 10 9 9 K 9 8

6.	8 6 A K Q 5 Q 9 8 7 8 7 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 7 10 8 4 A K 10 6 Q 10 9 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 5 4 3 9 7 6 3 5 4 A K

7.	8 Q 9 6 3 A Q 9 7 6 5 9 8
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 4 K 7 5 K 10 4 A 10 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 10 7 5 3 A 10 8 4 8 K Q 5

8.	6 4 K 10 9 8 10 4 A Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 5 A 7 5 A 9 8 7 5 K 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 10 7 3 Q 6 4 3 K Q 6 7

9.	10 K 9 8 6 5 K 10 6 4 A 9 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 4 3 Q 3 A Q 8 7 5 Q 10 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	K Q 7 6 5 A 10 7 4 9 K 8 6

10.	10 5 4 Q 10 8 3 K Q 4 A 10 9
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 7 6 4 A 8 7 6 5 K Q 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 8 6 3 A K 9 5 10 9 8 5

11.	Q 8 A 8 7 4 K Q 6 5 4 10 9
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		5 3 9 6 3 A 10 8 A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 7 6 4 K Q 10 5 9 7 K 8

12.	8 K 7 5 4 3 8 7 5 4 A K 6
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K Q 4 10 9 K 10 9 Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 1	10 7 6 5 3 A Q 8 6 A Q 6 7

13.	6 A 6 5 3 K 10 9 4 K 8 6 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 5 3 10 9 7 A Q 8 5 A 9 7
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 K Q 8 4 7 6 Q 10

14.	8 10 9 6 3 A 10 9 4 K Q 9 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 5 4 A Q 5 K Q 8 6 8 7 6
2 → 3 2 → 4 2 → 3	K Q 10 6 3 K 8 7 4 7 5 A 10

15.	5 K 10 9 5 4 9 8 6 4 K Q 10
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 8 Q 6 K Q 10 7 A 8 7 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 7 6 4 3 A 8 7 3 A 5 9 6

16.	7 6 A K 8 5 K 10 8 5 10 9 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 3 Q 7 6 Q 7 6 4 A Q 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 8 5 4 10 9 4 3 A 9 K 8

17.	Q K Q 8 7 K 10 7 4 10 9 8 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 3 A 10 5 Q 8 6 5 K Q 7
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 8 7 5 4 9 6 4 3 A 9 A 6

18.	Q 8 10 9 8 7 3 A 5 K Q 9 6
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		4 3 A 5 K 10 9 8 7 6 4 7 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	K 10 7 6 5 K Q 6 4 Q A 10 8

19.	Q 10 6 5 4 A K 10 8 6 5 10 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 6 3 9 8 7 9 7 4 A K Q 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 3	K 10 7 5 4 A K Q 3 Q 9 8 6

20.	Q 7 3 Q 10 6 3 A K 9 Q 10 8
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		6 9 5 4 8 6 5 4 A K 9 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 8 5 4 A K 8 7 Q 10 7 7

412.	7 K 10 5 4 9 6 5 4 A K 10 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 4 Q 6 3 K Q 10 8 7 Q 9 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K 10 8 6 5 3 A 9 8 7 A 8 6

426.	Q 9 8 5 4 Q 10 8 7 6 A K 8
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		5 4 Q 10 7 A K 9 5 Q 10 9 5
2 → 5 2 → 4 2 → 3	K 10 8 7 6 3 A K 6 3 4 7 6

471.	8 6 5 A Q 10 9 5 Q 6 K Q 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 3 A 10 9 8 7 5 4 10 9 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K 10 7 4 3 K 8 7 6 4 K A 8

495.	Q K Q 8 6 5 10 7 6 5 K Q 10
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 5 4 A 10 K Q 9 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K 10 7 6 3 9 7 4 3 A 8 4 A

615.	K K 8 7 5 Q 10 7 4 Q 8 7 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 7 3 6 4 K 9 8 6 A K 9 6
2 → 4 2 → 2 2 → 3	10 8 6 5 4 A Q 10 9 3 A 5 10

1017.	3 10 9 8 4 K 9 8 A K 7 6 5
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 6 Q 7 A Q 10 5 Q 10 9 8
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	K 8 7 5 4 A K 6 5 3 7 6 4 —

1232.	5 4 K Q 9 8 4 Q 9 7 4 K 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 10 5 K 8 6 5 A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 5	K 10 8 7 3 A 7 6 3 A 10 10 8

1324.	7 4 3 A 10 8 5 10 9 8 A K 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 9 3 A K 7 5 4 10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K Q 10 6 5 K Q 7 6 4 Q 6 Q

1462.	7 K Q 9 5 3 8 7 6 K Q 10 7
A J 9 2 J 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		5 4 3 A 10 A Q 9 5 9 8 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 5 2 → 3	K Q 10 8 6 8 7 6 4 K 10 4 A