Simulation 8Z06 Main

Trump Lead Part I

by Richard Pavlicek

Suppose you’re on lead against 4 after the auction shown. Should you lead a trump? A diamond from jack-third? A club from jack-fourth? Your spade holding suggests a trump, as does the infamous “never-lead-from-a-jack school,” but this might be helpful to declarer.

Which card would you lead?

Any vul West North East South
A J 3 2 Table 1
3 2 Pass 1 NT¹ Pass 2
J 3 2 Pass 4 Pass Pass
J 4 3 2 Pass
4
1. forcing (6-12)

Leads compared: 2, 2, 2. When asked about this problem, I said I would lead trump but had no strong feelings about it. Certainly a club (longer minor) is reasonable in an attempt to establish or cash a trick or two in time. Let’s see what the computer has to say.

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 5+ spades; 4+ hearts; 13-14 total points (minimal for better chances to set); freakness at most 7. North: 4+ hearts; not 4+ spades; 11+ support points (a stretch perhaps but leaving higher hopes to set). East: inappropriate hand for an overcall or takeout double.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

C’est la vie. My trump lead came up a loser at any form of scoring. Leading from the longer jack gets the gold ring. For an interesting follow-up see Part II.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
2 3.0953 31.68 46.08
2 3.1054 31.92 46.59
2 3.1288 32.77 46.95

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
2	3.0953	31.68	46.08
2	3.1054	31.92	46.59
2	3.1288	32.77	46.95

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2 +301 +58,150 +1323 +85,750 +1547
2 vs. 2 +217 +44,300 +1001 +65,250 +1171
2 vs. 2 +75 +13,850 +326 +20,500 +384

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2	+301	+58,150	+1323	+85,750	+1547
2 vs. 2	+217	+44,300	+1001	+65,250	+1171
2 vs. 2	+75	+13,850	+326	+20,500	+384

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. 9 8 6
Q 9 8 5
A Q 8 7
A 10
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4
J 10 7
K 10 9 5 4
K Q 8 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 7 5
A K 6 4
6
9 7 5

2. 9 8
A 10 9 8
Q 10 8 4
A 10 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
7 6 5
A K 6 5
Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 6 5 4
K Q J 4
9 7
K 8

3. 10 8
A 8 5 4
K Q 7 5
Q 10 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
9 7 6
A 10 8 6 4
A 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 9 6 5 4
K Q J 10
9
K 9 8

4. 9 7
A K Q 6
Q 9 8 7
8 7 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8
J 9 5
A K 10 6
Q 10 9 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 6 5 4
10 8 7 4
5 4
A K

5. 10 6 5
Q J 9 4
K Q 4
A 10 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
8 7 5
A 8 7 6 5
K Q 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 9 7 4
A K 10 6
10 9
8 5

6. Q 9
A 9 8 5
K Q 6 5 4
10 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4
10 7 4
A 10 8
A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 5
K Q J 6
9 7
K 8

7. 9
K 8 6 5 4
8 7 5 4
A K 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 5
J 10
K 10 9
Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 1 10 8 7 6 4
A Q 9 7
A Q 6
7

8. 7
A 7 6 4
K 10 9 4
K 8 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 4
J 10 8
A Q 8 5
A 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 9 8 5
K Q 9 5
7 6
Q 10

9. —
K J 10 4
Q 9 6 5 4
10 9 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 9 8 4
Q 5
K 8 7
A K Q 8
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 10 7 6 5
A 9 8 7 6
A 10
5

10. 9
J 10 7 4
A 10 9 4
K Q 9 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 5
A Q 6
K Q 8 6
8 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 2 K Q 10 7 4
K 9 8 5
7 5
A 10

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

11. 6
K J 10 6 5
9 8 6 4
K Q 10
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 9
Q 7
K Q 10 7
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 5 4
A 9 8 4
A 5
9 6

12. Q
K Q 9 8
K 10 7 4
10 9 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 4
A J 6
Q 8 6 5
K Q 7
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 9 8 6 5
10 7 5 4
A 9
A 6

13. Q
J 7 6 5
A K 10 8 6 5
10 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 7 4
10 9 8
9 7 4
A K Q 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 3 K 10 8 6 5
A K Q 4
Q
9 8 6

14. K Q
Q 10 8 7 4
A 7 6
10 9 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 8
J 9
K 10 8 5 4
A Q 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 10 7 6 5 4
A K 6 5
Q 9
K 6

15. 5
9 7 5 4
A 10 7 6 4
A 9 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 9 6
J 8 6
K 9 5
K Q 10 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 8 7 4
A K Q 10
Q 8
8 7

16. 9 8
Q 10 9 8 7
A 8 7
A 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 4
K J
K 10 9 5 4
K 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 7 6 5
A 6 5 4
Q 6
Q 10

17. —
J 9 6 5
A 10 8 5 4
K 9 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 6 4
K 10 8
K 9 7 6
A Q
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 9 8 5
A Q 7 4
Q
10 8 7

18. —
K 7 6 4
A 10 8 6 4
Q 10 9 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9 8 7
8 5
K Q 5
A K 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 6 5 4
A Q J 10 9
9 7
8

19. 8
Q J 7 5 4
A K 6 5
8 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 9 4
8 6
Q 9 8 4
A K Q 10
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 7 6 5
A K 10 9
10 7
9 7

20. Q 6
K 10 7 6
Q 10 9 5
K Q 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 8
Q J 8
K 8 7 6
A 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 10 7 5 4
A 9 5 4
A 4
9 7

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

212. —
K 10 5 4
9 8 7 6
K Q 8 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 9 6
A Q 8
K Q 10 4
10 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 8 7 5 4
J 9 7 6
A 5
A 9

293. 10
Q 8 6 4
10 5 4
A Q 9 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7 5
10 7
A K Q 7
K 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 9 8 6 4
A K J 9 5
9 8 6
—

551. 8 7
A J 9 4
10 7 4
K Q 10 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 5
Q 10 7
K Q 8 5
A 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 4
K 8 6 5
A 9 6
8

644. Q 6 5
10 9 6 4
K 10 9
A K 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
K 8 7
A Q 8 7 6
10 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 9 8 4
A Q J 5
5 4
Q 9

751. —
A 8 6 5
K 9 8 7 4
Q 7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 9 7 4
K 7 4
Q 10 5
A 10 9
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 Q 10 8 6 5
Q J 10 9
A 6
K 8

887. 6 5
K Q 10 9 5
Q 9 7 4
K 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
J 6
K 8 6 5
A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 9 8 4
A 8 7 4
A 10
10 8

940. 6
A 9 8 7 6
10 9 7
A 10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
K 5
K Q 6 5
K 9 8 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 9 7
Q J 10 4
A 8 4
Q

975. 8 7
8 7 6 5
A K Q 10 6
Q 10
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10
Q 4
9 7 4
A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 9 6 5 4
A K J 10 9
8 5
K

1315. Q 6
J 8 7 6
A K Q 8 7
8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5
Q 4
10 9 6 5 4
A K 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 5 10 9 8 7 4
A K 10 9 5
—
Q 10 9

1324. 6
A J 9 8
A 9 8 7 5
10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 9
K 7 5
K Q 10 6
Q 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 5 4
Q 10 6 4
4
A K 9

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

1580. —
9 7 6 5
A 9 8 5 4
K 10 9 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 9 7
A J 8
K Q 10 7
Q 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 8 6 5 4
K Q 10 4
6
A 8 7

1850. —
J 10 9 4
10 8 7 5
A Q 10 9 8
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 6 4
A 8 6
K Q 6
7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 10 9 7 5
K Q 7 5
A 9 4
K

1905. 9 7 4
K 10 9 8
Q 10
A Q 10 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 5
A K 9 7 6 4
9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 5
2 → 2 K 10 8 6 5
A Q 7 6 4
8 5
K

2108. 4
K 7 6 5
7 5 4
A K 7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 7
A J 9
K Q 9 8
10 9 8
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 9 6 5
Q 10 8 4
A 10 6
Q

2230. 7 6
K Q 10 5
K 10 9 7
K 10 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8
J 9 8
8 6 5 4
A Q 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 Q 10 9 5 4
A 7 6 4
A Q
8 5

2332. 7 6
A 10 9 7 4
9 7 5
A Q 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 8
J 8
A K Q 8
10 9 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 5 4
K Q 6 5
10 6 4
K

2455. 8 4
Q J 10 8
K Q 10 7 4
K 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
K 6 5
8 6 5
A Q 9 8 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 9 6 5
A 9 7 4
A 9
10 7

2570. —
7 6 5 4
K Q 10 9
A 10 9 8 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 7 4
A K 9
7 5 4
K Q 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 K Q 9 6 5
Q J 10 8
A 8 6
5

2689. 8
A J 5 4
10 8 5
K Q 10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9 4
K 8 7
K 9 7
A 9 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 K 10 7 6 5
Q 10 9 6
A Q 6 4
—

2744. Q 10
J 10 7 4
Q 10 9 7 4
A Q
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6
A 8 5
K 6 5
K 10 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 9 8 5 4
K Q 9 6
A 8
8 6

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

2875. Q 10 8
A K 6 4
Q 10 4
10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9
J 9 5
9 8 7 6 5
A K Q 8
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 7 6 5 4
Q 10 8 7
A K
9 5

2877. 7
10 9 8 5
A 10 9 6 4
K 10 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 6
K Q 6
Q 8 7 5
Q 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 9 8 5 4
A J 7 4
K
A 9 6

3029. K
A Q 7 4
8 6 5
K 9 8 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5 4
K J 9
K Q 10 4
Q 10 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 10 9 8 7
10 8 6 5
A 9 7
A

3946. —
J 10 9 8
K Q 10 9 6 4
7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8 6
A Q 7
8 5
A K 10 9
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 9 7 5 4
K 6 5 4
A 7
Q 8

3991. 10
J 7 6 5
A Q 5
K 9 8 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 5
A Q 9
8 7 6
A Q 10 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 9 8 4
K 10 8 4
K 10 9 4
—

4201. 8 6
K 10 8 7 6
A K 10 7
9 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
9 4
9 6 5 4
A K 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 9 7 5 4
A Q J 5
Q 8
Q 10

4293. 8 4
10 9 8 4
A K 10 9 7
K 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
Q J 7
8 5 4
A 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 9 7 6 5
A K 6 5
Q 6
Q 10

4878. 5
A 10 5 4
A Q 8 6
8 7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 9
K 7 6
9 7 5 4
A Q 10
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 6 4
Q J 9 8
K 10
K 9

5139. 6 5
J 9 7 4
K 6 4
A K 10 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
Q 8
A Q 10 8 7 5
9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 9 8 7 4
A K 10 6 5
9
Q 8

5205. Q 8
J 10 9 5 4
A 8 7
K Q 8
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4
7 6
K Q 10 4
A 10 9 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 9 7 5
A K Q 8
9 6 5
6

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

5738. 9
K Q J 8
A 10 7 4
10 8 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 5
A 10 9
Q 9 8 6
K Q 9 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 6 4
7 6 5 4
K 5
A

5780. 4
A Q 9 6
K 10 9 8
10 9 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 5
J 8 7
Q 7 5 4
A K Q
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 9 8 6
K 10 5 4
A 6
7 5

5855. K
Q 8 7 5
9 7 5 4
A K 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 8
A 9 4
K Q 8 6
Q 9 8 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 10 7 6 5 4
K J 10 6
A 10
10

5935. 9 5
K 6 5 4
Q 9 6
A Q 10 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8
J 8
A K 10 4
K 8 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 7 6 4
A Q 10 9 7
8 7 5
—

6132. 10 6
Q 10 7 4
A K Q 8
8 7 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 4
J 6 5
9 7 6 5
A K Q 9
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 9 7 5
A K 9 8
10 4
10 6

6138. 5
K Q 10 8 7
K Q 10 6
10 9 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 4
9 6
A 8 7 5 4
K Q 7
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 9 7 6
A J 5 4
9
A 8 5

6313. 8 7 5
9 7 6 4
K 5
A K Q 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
K 10
A Q 8 6 4
10 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 9 6 4
A Q J 8 5
10 9 7
—

6657. 8 7
K 10 9 7
A Q 9 8 4
Q 8
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9
J 4
10 7 6 5
A K 10 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 6 5 4
A Q 8 6 5
K
9 5

6770. 7 6 4
K 10 8 4
Q 10 7
A Q 8
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 7 6
A K 8 6 5
10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 10 9 8 5
A Q 9 5
9 4
K 5

6782. —
A J 7 6
K 9 8 5 4
9 7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 9 8 6
K Q 9
A Q 10 6
Q 8
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 7 5 4
10 8 5 4
7
A K 10

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

6973. 9
10 8 7 5
Q 10 9 8 7 6
A 10
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 6
A K
A K 5 4
9 7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 8 7 5 4
Q J 9 6 4
—
K Q 8

7146. 6 5
A J 6 5
A Q 8 4
10 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 4
Q 9 4
9 7 6 5
A K Q 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 9 7
K 10 8 7
K 10
9 7

7277. 10 6
J 9 5 4
A K Q
9 8 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5
Q 6
10 9 7 6 4
A Q 10 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 9 8 7 4
A K 10 8 7
8 5
K

7653. K
Q 10 9 5
10 6 5
A K 9 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 5
8 6
A K Q 7
Q 10 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 10 9 7 4
A K J 7 4
9 8 4
—

7661. 5
9 7 5 4
A 10 6
K Q 10 9 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 4
Q J 10
K Q 8 7
A 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 9 6
A K 8 6
9 5 4
8

8194. Q 5
Q 10 6 5
10 7 4
A K 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 4
A 8 4
K Q 9 5
10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 8 7 6
K J 9 7
A 8 6
Q

8208. —
Q 10 8 6
A 9 7 6 5
Q 9 8 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 9 4
A K 4
10 8 4
K 10 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 8 7 6 5
J 9 7 5
K Q
A 6

8224. 9 6
J 10 8 7 4
A Q 8 7 4
K
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
A Q
10 9 6 5
Q 10 8 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 10 8 5 4
K 9 6 5
K
A 9 5

8236. 5
Q 10 9 6
A K 7 5
10 9 7 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 4
A J 7
9 8 6 4
K 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 Q 9 8 7 6
K 8 5 4
Q 10
A Q

8588. —
9 8 7 5
K Q 8 6 5
A 9 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 7 6
K Q 6
A 9 7 4
K 7
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 9 8 5 4
A J 10 4
10
Q 10 6

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

8615. 10 6
K Q J 8
9 6 5
K Q 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
7 6 5
A K Q 10
10 9 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 9 8 7 5
A 10 9 4
8 7 4
A

8752. 7 6
J 10 7 4
A K Q 8
10 9 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 4
Q 9 5
9 7 6 4
A K Q 7
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 8 5
A K 8 6
10 5
8 5

8855. 10
Q 10 5 4
A Q 7 5 4
Q 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 5
9 7 6
K 9 8
K 10 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 9 8 7 6 4
A K J 8
10 6
A 9

8861. K 5
Q J 10 6
10 9 8 5
K Q 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8
9 8 4
K Q 7 6 4
A 9 8
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 10 9 7 6 4
A K 7 5
A
10 7 6

9051. Q
Q J 8 6
K 9 8 7
A 9 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 9 8
A 9 5
Q 6
K Q 10 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 7 6 5 4
K 10 7 4
A 10 5 4
—

9108. 7 4
A 9 7 5
A Q 9 6
7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6
K 8
10 8 7 5 4
A K 10 9
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 9 5
Q J 10 6 4
K
Q 8

9310. 7
10 9 7 5
A 9 4
K Q 10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5 4
Q J 4
K Q 8 5
A 9 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 10 9 8
A K 8 6
10 7 6
8

9565. Q 5
K Q 9 7 4
10 8 6
K Q 9
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 7
10 6
K Q 7 4
A 10 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 8 6 4
A J 8 5
A 9 5
8

9600. —
J 10 8 4
A 9 8 6 4
K 8 7 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8 5
A 9 6
Q 7 5
A 10 9
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 9 7 6 4
K Q 7 5
K 10
Q 6

9778. K
Q 10 5 4
A 6 4
K 10 9 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 4
K J 6
Q 10 9 7
Q 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 9 8 7 6 5
A 9 8 7
K 8 5
A

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

9981. 8
K 10 8 6 4
K 10 8 7 4
K 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
Q 7
A Q 9 5
A 10 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 9 6
A J 9 5
6
Q 9 8

9982. Q 9
J 10 9 4
Q 10 8 7 6 5
A
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
A 7 5
A 9 4
Q 10 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 6 5 4
K Q 8 6
K
K 9 8

9983. —
J 9 6 5
A K 10 8 6
9 8 7 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 6
A 10 8
9 5 4
A K 10 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 9 7 5 4
K Q 7 4
Q 7
Q

9984. 5
J 10 7 4
Q 10 8 4
A Q 8 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9 4
A 6 5
K 9 6 5
K 10 9
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 6
K Q 9 8
A 7
7 5

9985. 4
A K 7 6
Q 10 9 6 4
8 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9 5
Q 10 5
A 8 5
A 10 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 6
J 9 8 4
K 7
K Q

9986. 8 7
A 10 9 5
A Q 10 8
10 7 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 5
K J 8
K 7 5 4
K 9 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 9 6 4
Q 7 6 4
9 6
A Q

9987. 5
Q J 10 7 4
10 7 6 5
A Q 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 8
6 5
A K 9 4
10 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 2 10 9 7 6 4
A K 9 8
Q 8
K 5

9988. K 4
A Q 9 8
Q 9 5 4
10 8 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5
7 6 5
K 10 8 6
A K 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 9 8 6
K J 10 4
A 7
Q 5

9989. Q 4
10 9 8 7 5
A K 6 5
Q 6
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5
Q 4
Q 10 9 8 7 4
A K 8
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 9 8 7
A K J 6
—
10 9 7 5

9990. —
10 9 8 5
A 10 9 6 4
K 8 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 5 4
K 7 6
7 5
A Q 10 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 10 9 8 7 6
A Q J 4
K Q 8
9

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

9991. 7 6 4
A K 9 5
10 8 6
K Q 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9
10 6 4
A 9 7 5 4
A 10 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 8 5
Q J 8 7
K Q
8 7

9992. 10 8 7
K Q J 8 6
K 8 5
K 10
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
10 7
Q 10 9 7 6 4
A 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 9 6 5 4
A 9 5 4
A
Q 8 5

9993. 9 6 5
Q 8 5 4
A 9 7 6 5
A
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 7 6
K 10 8 4
K 10 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 4
A K 10 9
Q
Q 6 5

9994. 6
K Q 9 8 7
9 7 6 5 4
A 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
6 5
A K Q 8
K Q 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 9 8
A J 10 4
10
10 9 8

9995. 5
K J 9 8 6
A 9 7 5
Q 9 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 6
Q 4
Q 10 8 6 4
A 8 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 9 8 7 4
A 10 7 5
K
K 10 6

9996. 6
9 8 5 4
A Q 5
A 10 7 6 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 9 8 7
Q J 10
K 10 9 7
K Q 9
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 5 4
A K 7 6
8 6 4
8

9997. 9
J 10 8 5
10 8 5 4
A K 10 8
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 5
A 7 6
A Q 9 7 6
Q 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 7 4
K Q 9 4
K
9 7 5

9998. 8 4
J 8 7 6
K 10 9
A K 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6
K Q 4
A 6 5 4
10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 9 5
A 10 9 5
Q 8 7
Q

9999. 10
Q 10 7 5
K 10 8 7 5
A 8 7
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 9 6
J 8 4
A 9 4
K Q 9 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 5 4
A K 9 6
Q 6
10 6

10000. Q 10
Q 10 5 4
K Q 5 4
Q 8 5
A J 3 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7
K 9 7
10 9 8 6
A K 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 9 6 5 4
A J 8 6
A 7
10 9

Simulation 8Z06 Main Top Trump Lead Part I

	Any vul	West	North	East	South
A J 3 2					1
3 2		Pass	1 NT¹	Pass	2
J 3 2		Pass	4	Pass	Pass
J 4 3 2		Pass
	4
		1. forcing (6-12)

1.	9 8 6 Q 9 8 5 A Q 8 7 A 10
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		4 J 10 7 K 10 9 5 4 K Q 8 6
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 10 7 5 A K 6 4 6 9 7 5

2.	9 8 A 10 9 8 Q 10 8 4 A 10 7
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 7 7 6 5 A K 6 5 Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 10 6 5 4 K Q J 4 9 7 K 8

3.	10 8 A 8 5 4 K Q 7 5 Q 10 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 7 9 7 6 A 10 8 6 4 A 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 9 6 5 4 K Q J 10 9 K 9 8

4.	9 7 A K Q 6 Q 9 8 7 8 7 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 8 J 9 5 A K 10 6 Q 10 9 6
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 6 5 4 10 8 7 4 5 4 A K

5.	10 6 5 Q J 9 4 K Q 4 A 10 9
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 8 7 5 A 8 7 6 5 K Q 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 9 7 4 A K 10 6 10 9 8 5

6.	Q 9 A 9 8 5 K Q 6 5 4 10 9
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		6 4 10 7 4 A 10 8 A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 8 7 5 K Q J 6 9 7 K 8

7.	9 K 8 6 5 4 8 7 5 4 A K 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K Q 5 J 10 K 10 9 Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 1	10 8 7 6 4 A Q 9 7 A Q 6 7

8.	7 A 7 6 4 K 10 9 4 K 8 6 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 4 J 10 8 A Q 8 5 A 9 7
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 9 8 5 K Q 9 5 7 6 Q 10

9.	— K J 10 4 Q 9 6 5 4 10 9 7 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 9 8 4 Q 5 K 8 7 A K Q 8
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	Q 10 7 6 5 A 9 8 7 6 A 10 5

10.	9 J 10 7 4 A 10 9 4 K Q 9 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 6 5 A Q 6 K Q 8 6 8 7 6
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 2	K Q 10 7 4 K 9 8 5 7 5 A 10

11.	6 K J 10 6 5 9 8 6 4 K Q 10
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 9 Q 7 K Q 10 7 A 8 7 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 8 7 5 4 A 9 8 4 A 5 9 6

12.	Q K Q 9 8 K 10 7 4 10 9 8 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 7 4 A J 6 Q 8 6 5 K Q 7
2 → 5 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 9 8 6 5 10 7 5 4 A 9 A 6

13.	Q J 7 6 5 A K 10 8 6 5 10 7
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		9 7 4 10 9 8 9 7 4 A K Q 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 3	K 10 8 6 5 A K Q 4 Q 9 8 6

14.	K Q Q 10 8 7 4 A 7 6 10 9 7
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		9 8 J 9 K 10 8 5 4 A Q 8 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	10 7 6 5 4 A K 6 5 Q 9 K 6

15.	5 9 7 5 4 A 10 7 6 4 A 9 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 9 6 J 8 6 K 9 5 K Q 10 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	Q 10 8 7 4 A K Q 10 Q 8 8 7

16.	9 8 Q 10 9 8 7 A 8 7 A 6 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 4 K J K 10 9 5 4 K 9 8 7
2 → 3 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 7 6 5 A 6 5 4 Q 6 Q 10

17.	— J 9 6 5 A 10 8 5 4 K 9 6 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 7 6 4 K 10 8 K 9 7 6 A Q
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 9 8 5 A Q 7 4 Q 10 8 7

18.	— K 7 6 4 A 10 8 6 4 Q 10 9 7
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 9 8 7 8 5 K Q 5 A K 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 6 5 4 A Q J 10 9 9 7 8

19.	8 Q J 7 5 4 A K 6 5 8 6 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 9 4 8 6 Q 9 8 4 A K Q 10
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 7 6 5 A K 10 9 10 7 9 7

20.	Q 6 K 10 7 6 Q 10 9 5 K Q 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		9 8 Q J 8 K 8 7 6 A 10 8 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 10 7 5 4 A 9 5 4 A 4 9 7

212.	— K 10 5 4 9 8 7 6 K Q 8 7 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 10 9 6 A Q 8 K Q 10 4 10 5
2 → 5 2 → 4 2 → 3	Q 8 7 5 4 J 9 7 6 A 5 A 9

293.	10 Q 8 6 4 10 5 4 A Q 9 7 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 7 5 10 7 A K Q 7 K 10 8 5
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	Q 9 8 6 4 A K J 9 5 9 8 6 —

551.	8 7 A J 9 4 10 7 4 K Q 10 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		9 5 Q 10 7 K Q 8 5 A 9 7 6
2 → 3 2 → 5 2 → 3	K Q 10 6 4 K 8 6 5 A 9 6 8

644.	Q 6 5 10 9 6 4 K 10 9 A K 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 K 8 7 A Q 8 7 6 10 8 7 6
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K 10 9 8 4 A Q J 5 5 4 Q 9

751.	— A 8 6 5 K 9 8 7 4 Q 7 6 5
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 9 7 4 K 7 4 Q 10 5 A 10 9
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 2	Q 10 8 6 5 Q J 10 9 A 6 K 8

887.	6 5 K Q 10 9 5 Q 9 7 4 K 7
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 7 J 6 K 8 6 5 A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 5	K 10 9 8 4 A 8 7 4 A 10 10 8

940.	6 A 9 8 7 6 10 9 7 A 10 7 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 5 4 K 5 K Q 6 5 K 9 8 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K Q 10 9 7 Q J 10 4 A 8 4 Q

975.	8 7 8 7 6 5 A K Q 10 6 Q 10
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 10 Q 4 9 7 4 A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 4	Q 9 6 5 4 A K J 10 9 8 5 K

1315.	Q 6 J 8 7 6 A K Q 8 7 8 6
A J 3 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 5 Q 4 10 9 6 5 4 A K 7 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 5	10 9 8 7 4 A K 10 9 5 — Q 10 9