Simulation 8Z07 Main

Trump Lead Part II

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I]

Bothered by Part I, I decided to make West’s spades slightly stronger, adding the nine spot (A-J-9-2) to make it more difficult to establish the spade suit. Would this change the outcome?

Which card would you lead?

Any vul West North East South
A J 9 2 Table 1
3 2 Pass 1 NT¹ Pass 2
J 3 2 Pass 4 Pass Pass
J 4 3 2 Pass
4
1. forcing (6-12)

Leads compared: 2, 2, 2. Perhaps a trump lead will regain its glory. Place your bets, as I am about to spin the wheel.

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 5+ spades; 4+ hearts; 13-14 total points (minimal for better chances to set); freakness at most 7. North: 4+ hearts; not 4+ spades; 11+ support points (a stretch perhaps but leaving higher hopes to set). East: inappropriate hand for an overcall or takeout double.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

A complete turnaround. The extra spot in spades makes a trump lead best at any form of scoring. Leading from the longer jack now gets second place. Intermediate cards in declarer’s first suit are clearly a key factor. For another follow-up see Part III.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
2 3.3293 43.28 40.04
2 3.2335 38.81 42.76
2 3.2723 40.31 42.55

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
2	3.3293	43.28	40.04
2	3.2335	38.81	42.76
2	3.2723	40.31	42.55

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2 +911 +231,240 +5238 +357,540 +6396
2 vs. 2 +565 +152,300 +3452 +237,850 +4264
2 vs. 2 +354 +78,940 +1796 +119,690 +2153

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
2 vs. 2	+911	+231,240	+5238	+357,540	+6396
2 vs. 2	+565	+152,300	+3452	+237,850	+4264
2 vs. 2	+354	+78,940	+1796	+119,690	+2153

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. 8 7 5
Q 9 8 5
A Q 8 7
A 10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 3
J 10 7
K 10 9 5 4
K Q 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 6 4
A K 6 4
6
9 7 5

2. 8 7
A 10 9 8
Q 10 8 4
A 10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
7 6 5
A K 6 5
Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 5 4 3
K Q J 4
9 7
K 8

3. 10 7
A 8 5 4
K Q 7 5
Q 10 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
9 7 6
A 10 8 6 4
A 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 5
2 → 5 K 8 5 4 3
K Q J 10
9
K 9 8

4. 8 6
A K Q 6
Q 9 8 7
8 7 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
J 9 5
A K 10 6
Q 10 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 5 4 3
10 8 7 4
5 4
A K

5. 10 5 4
Q J 9 4
K Q 4
A 10 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
8 7 5
A 8 7 6 5
K Q 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 8 6 3
A K 10 6
10 9
8 5

6. Q 8
A 9 8 5
K Q 6 5 4
10 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 3
10 7 4
A 10 8
A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 7 6 4
K Q J 6
9 7
K 8

7. 8
K 8 6 5 4
8 7 5 4
A K 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 4
J 10
K 10 9
Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 1 10 7 6 5 3
A Q 9 7
A Q 6
7

8. 6
A 7 6 4
K 10 9 4
K 8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 5 3
J 10 8
A Q 8 5
A 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
K Q 9 5
7 6
Q 10

9. —
K J 10 4
Q 9 6 5 4
10 9 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 7 3
Q 5
K 8 7
A K Q 8
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 10 6 5 4
A 9 8 7 6
A 10
5

10. 8
J 10 7 4
A 10 9 4
K Q 9 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
A Q 6
K Q 8 6
8 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 2 K Q 10 6 3
K 9 8 5
7 5
A 10

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

11. 5
K J 10 6 5
9 8 6 4
K Q 10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
Q 7
K Q 10 7
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
A 9 8 4
A 5
9 6

12. Q
K Q 9 8
K 10 7 4
10 9 8 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 3
A J 6
Q 8 6 5
K Q 7
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 7 5 4
10 7 5 4
A 9
A 6

13. Q
J 7 6 5
A K 10 8 6 5
10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 3
10 9 8
9 7 4
A K Q 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 4
A K Q 4
Q
9 8 6

14. K Q
Q 10 8 7 4
A 7 6
10 9 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7
J 9
K 10 8 5 4
A Q 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 10 6 5 4 3
A K 6 5
Q 9
K 6

15. 4
9 7 5 4
A 10 7 6 4
A 9 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 5
J 8 6
K 9 5
K Q 10 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 7 6 3
A K Q 10
Q 8
8 7

16. 8 7
Q 10 9 8 7
A 8 7
A 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
K J
K 10 9 5 4
K 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 6 5 4
A 6 5 4
Q 6
Q 10

17. —
J 9 6 5
A 10 8 5 4
K 9 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 5 3
K 10 8
K 9 7 6
A Q
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
A Q 7 4
Q
10 8 7

18. —
K 7 6 4
A 10 8 6 4
Q 10 9 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 7 6
8 5
K Q 5
A K 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 5 4 3
A Q J 10 9
9 7
8

19. 7
Q J 7 5 4
A K 6 5
8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 3
8 6
Q 9 8 4
A K Q 10
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 6 5 4
A K 10 9
10 7
9 7

20. Q 5
K 10 7 6
Q 10 9 5
K Q 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7
Q J 8
K 8 7 6
A 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 10 6 4 3
A 9 5 4
A 4
9 7

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

212. —
K 10 5 4
9 8 7 6
K Q 8 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 8 5
A Q 8
K Q 10 4
10 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 7 6 4 3
J 9 7 6
A 5
A 9

293. 10
Q 8 6 4
10 5 4
A Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6 4
10 7
A K Q 7
K 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 8 7 5 3
A K J 9 5
9 8 6
—

887. 5 4
K Q 10 9 5
Q 9 7 4
K 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
J 6
K 8 6 5
A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 7 3
A 8 7 4
A 10
10 8

891. K 7
K 10 8 4
9 8 4
K Q 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 3
Q 9 5
K Q 7 5
A 9 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 10 6 5 4
A J 7 6
A 10 6
10

961. 7 4 3
A J 9 6
10 9 8
A K 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
10 4
A K 7 5 4
10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 6 5
K Q 8 7 5
Q 6
Q

975. 7 6
8 7 6 5
A K Q 10 6
Q 10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10
Q 4
9 7 4
A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 8 5 4 3
A K J 10 9
8 5
K

1215. Q 10 7
K 10 9 8
K 10 9 7
K 10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
7 6 5
Q 8 5 4
A Q 9 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 8 6 5 4 3
A Q J 4
A 6
8 5

1315. Q 5
J 8 7 6
A K Q 8 7
8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 4
Q 4
10 9 6 5 4
A K 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 10 8 7 6 3
A K 10 9 5
—
Q 10 9

1324. 5
A J 9 8
A 9 8 7 5
10 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
K 7 5
K Q 10 6
Q 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 7 6 4 3
Q 10 6 4
4
A K 9

1486. —
J 9 8 5
K 10 8 5 4
K 10 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 7 6
A 10 6
A Q 7 6
Q 8
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 8 5 4 3
K Q 7 4
9
A 9 7

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

1614. 6 3
Q 8 7 6
A Q 10 4
K 10 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
K 4
9 8 7 5
A Q 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 8 5 4
A J 10 9 5
K 6
6

1623. K 5
J 7 6 4
10 9 5
A K 10 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
A 8
K Q 6 4
Q 9 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 8 6 4 3
K Q 10 9 5
A 8 7
—

1850. —
J 10 9 4
10 8 7 5
A Q 10 9 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7 5 3
A 8 6
K Q 6
7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 10 8 6 4
K Q 7 5
A 9 4
K

1905. 8 6 3
K 10 9 8
Q 10
A Q 10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 5
A K 9 7 6 4
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 4
A Q 7 6 4
8 5
K

2049. 4 3
J 9 8 4
Q 10 9
A K 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5
A Q 10
K 8 7 5
Q 10 9 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 10 8 6
K 7 6 5
A 6 4
8

2108. 3
K 7 6 5
7 5 4
A K 7 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 6
A J 9
K Q 9 8
10 9 8
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 8 5 4
Q 10 8 4
A 10 6
Q

2230. 6 5
K Q 10 5
K 10 9 7
K 10 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
J 9 8
8 6 5 4
A Q 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 Q 10 8 4 3
A 7 6 4
A Q
8 5

2324. 8
Q 10 9 4
9 6 5 4
A K 10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 3
7 5
A K Q 8
Q 9 8 6
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 7 6 5 4
A K J 8 6
10 7
5

2332. 6 5
A 10 9 7 4
9 7 5
A Q 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7
J 8
A K Q 8
10 9 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 4 3
K Q 6 5
10 6 4
K

2453. K 8 7
J 9 7 5
A 8 7
K Q 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6
K Q 8
K Q 10 5
10 8 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 10 5 4 3
A 10 6 4
9 6 4
A

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

2455. 7 3
Q J 10 8
K Q 10 7 4
K 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
K 6 5
8 6 5
A Q 9 8 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 5 4
A 9 7 4
A 9
10 7

2478. 4 3
A Q 9 7
K Q 8 6
10 9 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
K 5 4
10 9 5 4
K Q 6 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 7 6 5
J 10 8 6
A 7
A 7

2744. Q 10
J 10 7 4
Q 10 9 7 4
A Q
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5
A 8 5
K 6 5
K 10 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 7 4 3
K Q 9 6
A 8
8 6

2875. Q 10 7
A K 6 4
Q 10 4
10 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
J 9 5
9 8 7 6 5
A K Q 8
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 6 5 4 3
Q 10 8 7
A K
9 5

2877. 6
10 9 8 5
A 10 9 6 4
K 10 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 5
K Q 6
Q 8 7 5
Q 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 8 7 4 3
A J 7 4
K
A 9 6

2889. 8 4
K J 6 5
K Q 10 8 6
Q 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
A 10 9
A 7 5 4
10 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 10 6 5 3
Q 8 7 4
9
A K 8

3219. 10 8
Q J 9 4
10 9 8 7
A K 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6
K 10 7
K Q 5 4
10 9 8 7
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 7 5 4 3
A 8 6 5
A 6
Q 6

3255. 6 4
A K 10 8
Q 10 9 8 6 4
8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
9 7 6
A K 5
K 10 9 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 K 10 8 5 3
Q J 5 4
7
A Q 5

3571. 7 6
A Q 5 4
Q 8 7 5
K 10 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4 3
K 9 6
K 10 9 6
A 9 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 5
J 10 8 7
A 4
Q 7

3649. K
J 10 7 6
Q 10 9 7
A Q 7 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5
K Q 8
K 8 5
K 10 9 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 Q 10 7 6 4 3
A 9 5 4
A 6 4
—

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

3827. Q
K 10 6 4
Q 10 9 7 4
A 8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 4
Q J 5
K 8 6
K Q 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 7 5 3
A 9 8 7
A 5
10 9

3910. Q 5
10 9 8 7 4
A K 10 5
10 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 4
Q 5
8 7 6 4
A Q 9 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 8 7 6 3
A K J 6
Q 9
K 8

3946. —
J 10 9 8
K Q 10 9 6 4
7 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 7 5
A Q 7
8 5
A K 10 9
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 8 6 4 3
K 6 5 4
A 7
Q 8

4067. 4
A J 5 4
9 7 6 4
A 8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 6
K 9 7
K 10 5
K Q 9 7
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 8 5 3
Q 10 8 6
A Q 8
10

4201. 7 5
K 10 8 7 6
A K 10 7
9 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
9 4
9 6 5 4
A K 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 6 4 3
A Q J 5
Q 8
Q 10

4293. 7 3
10 9 8 4
A K 10 9 7
K 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
Q J 7
8 5 4
A 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 6 5 4
A K 6 5
Q 6
Q 10

4316. 10 8 7
K 10 7 4
A 9 5
K Q 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4
A 9 5
K Q 10 4
10 9 8 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 6 5 3
Q J 8 6
8 7 6
A

4561. 10 5 3
K Q 8 6
A 10 8 6
K 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
10 9 4
Q 5 4
A Q 10 7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 8 7 6 4
A J 7 5
K 9 7
9

4772. Q 8 7
J 10 9 8
A Q 8 7
K 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
7 6
10 9 6 5 4
A Q 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 6 5 4 3
A K Q 5 4
K
10 9

4959. 10 7
J 10 7 5
K Q 10 8 4
K Q
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8
K 6 4
A 7 6 5
10 9 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 6 5 4 3
A Q 9 8
9
A 8 5

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

5139. 5 4
J 9 7 4
K 6 4
A K 10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
Q 8
A Q 10 8 7 5
9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 8 7 6 3
A K 10 6 5
9
Q 8

5154. 7
Q 9 8 6
A K 7 6 4
8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
A 10 5
Q 10 9 8 5
K Q 9
2 → 6
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 5 4 3
K J 7 4
—
A 10 7

5273. 3
A Q J 8
9 8 7 6 5 4
9 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 5
K 10 4
A K 10
10 8 7 6
2 → 6
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 8 6 4
9 7 6 5
Q
A K Q

5627. Q 3
K J 7 6 4
K 10 9 5 4
10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
Q 10
A 8 6
Q 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 10 8 6 5 4
A 9 8 5
Q 7
A K

5899. 6 5
10 9 7 6
K 10 7
A K 10 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
Q 8
A Q 9 6 5
Q 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 3
A K J 5 4
8 4
6

6138. 4
K Q 10 8 7
K Q 10 6
10 9 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 3
9 6
A 8 7 5 4
K Q 7
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 8 6 5
A J 5 4
9
A 8 5

6310. 6
A 10 8 4
Q 8 7 5
K 10 8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 10
K J 6
K 10 9 4
9 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 8 7 5 4 3
Q 9 7 5
A 6
A Q

6657. 7 6
K 10 9 7
A Q 9 8 4
Q 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8
J 4
10 7 6 5
A K 10 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 5 4 3
A Q 8 6 5
K
9 5

6782. —
A J 7 6
K 9 8 5 4
9 7 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 7 5
K Q 9
A Q 10 6
Q 8
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 6 4 3
10 8 5 4
7
A K 10

6833. 7 5
Q J 10 9 6
A Q 8 4
Q 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
K
10 9 7 6 5
A 10 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 6 4 3
A 8 7 5 4
K
K 9

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

7381. 5
Q J 10 6 5
10 7 4
A Q 10 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 3
A 7
K Q 6 5
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 8 6 4
K 9 8 4
A 9 8
K

7653. K
Q 10 9 5
10 6 5
A K 9 8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
8 6
A K Q 7
Q 10 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 10 8 6 3
A K J 7 4
9 8 4
—

7661. 4
9 7 5 4
A 10 6
K Q 10 9 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 3
Q J 10
K Q 8 7
A 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 5
A K 8 6
9 5 4
8

8311. 8
A 9 7 4
K 10 9 8
K 9 8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 3
K 8 6
Q 6 4
A Q 10 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 7 5 4
Q J 10 5
A 7 5
7

8926. K
J 8 6 5
A Q 10 9 7 6
10 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 4
A K Q
K 8 5 4
9 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 8 5 3
10 9 7 4
—
A K Q 8

9108. 6 3
A 9 7 5
A Q 9 6
7 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5
K 8
10 8 7 5 4
A K 10 9
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 10 8 4
Q J 10 6 4
K
Q 8

9225. 7
A 10 9 4
A 10 9 8
10 8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 3
K 8 7
Q 7 5
A Q 9 7
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 10 6 4
Q J 6 5
K 6 4
K

9565. Q 4
K Q 9 7 4
10 8 6
K Q 9
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6
10 6
K Q 7 4
A 10 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 3
A J 8 5
A 9 5
8

9755. Q 7 4
K 9 8 6
Q 8 5
A Q 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5
J 5
A K 7 6 4
10 9 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 8 6 3
A Q 10 7 4
10 9
K

9778. K
Q 10 5 4
A 6 4
K 10 9 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 3
K J 6
Q 10 9 7
Q 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 2 8 7 6 5 4
A 9 8 7
K 8 5
A

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

9981. 7
K 10 8 6 4
K 10 8 7 4
K 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4 3
Q 7
A Q 9 5
A 10 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 5
A J 9 5
6
Q 9 8

9982. Q 8
J 10 9 4
Q 10 8 7 6 5
A
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6
A 7 5
A 9 4
Q 10 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 5 4 3
K Q 8 6
K
K 9 8

9983. —
J 9 6 5
A K 10 8 6
9 8 7 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 5
A 10 8
9 5 4
A K 10 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 8 6 4 3
K Q 7 4
Q 7
Q

9984. 4
J 10 7 4
Q 10 8 4
A Q 8 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 3
A 6 5
K 9 6 5
K 10 9
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 5 K 10 7 6 5
K Q 9 8
A 7
7 5

9985. 3
A K 7 6
Q 10 9 6 4
8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 4
Q 10 5
A 8 5
A 10 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 7 6 5
J 9 8 4
K 7
K Q

9986. 7 6
A 10 9 5
A Q 10 8
10 7 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
K J 8
K 7 5 4
K 9 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 8 5 3
Q 7 6 4
9 6
A Q

9987. 4
Q J 10 7 4
10 7 6 5
A Q 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 7
6 5
A K 9 4
10 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 2 10 8 6 5 3
A K 9 8
Q 8
K 5

9988. K 3
A Q 9 8
Q 9 5 4
10 8 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4
7 6 5
K 10 8 6
A K 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 8 7 5
K J 10 4
A 7
Q 5

9989. Q 3
10 9 8 7 5
A K 6 5
Q 6
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 4
Q 4
Q 10 9 8 7 4
A K 8
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 8 7 6
A K J 6
—
10 9 7 5

9990. —
10 9 8 5
A 10 9 6 4
K 8 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 4 3
K 7 6
7 5
A Q 10 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 10 8 7 6 5
A Q J 4
K Q 8
9

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

9991. 6 5 3
A K 9 5
10 8 6
K Q 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
10 6 4
A 9 7 5 4
A 10 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 7 4
Q J 8 7
K Q
8 7

9992. 10 7 6
K Q J 8 6
K 8 5
K 10
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
10 7
Q 10 9 7 6 4
A 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 8 5 4 3
A 9 5 4
A
Q 8 5

9993. 8 5 4
Q 8 5 4
A 9 7 6 5
A
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 7 6
K 10 8 4
K 10 9 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 7 6 3
A K 10 9
Q
Q 6 5

9994. 5
K Q 9 8 7
9 7 6 5 4
A 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 4 3
6 5
A K Q 8
K Q 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 7
A J 10 4
10
10 9 8

9995. 4
K J 9 8 6
A 9 7 5
Q 9 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 5
Q 4
Q 10 8 6 4
A 8 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 K 8 7 6 3
A 10 7 5
K
K 10 6

9996. 5
9 8 5 4
A Q 5
A 10 7 6 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 6
Q J 10
K 10 9 7
K Q 9
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 4 3
A K 7 6
8 6 4
8

9997. 8
J 10 8 5
10 8 5 4
A K 10 8
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
A 7 6
A Q 9 7 6
Q 6
2 → 5
2 → 5
2 → 5 K Q 10 6 3
K Q 9 4
K
9 7 5

9998. 7 3
J 8 7 6
K 10 9
A K 8 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5
K Q 4
A 6 5 4
10 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 4
A 10 9 5
Q 8 7
Q

9999. 10
Q 10 7 5
K 10 8 7 5
A 8 7
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 5
J 8 4
A 9 4
K Q 9 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
A K 9 6
Q 6
10 6

10000. Q 10
Q 10 5 4
K Q 5 4
Q 8 5
A J 9 2
3 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6
K 9 7
10 9 8 6
A K 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 5 4 3
A J 8 6
A 7
10 9

Simulation 8Z07 Main Top Trump Lead Part II

	Any vul	West	North	East	South
A J 9 2					1
3 2		Pass	1 NT¹	Pass	2
J 3 2		Pass	4	Pass	Pass
J 4 3 2		Pass
	4
		1. forcing (6-12)

1.	8 7 5 Q 9 8 5 A Q 8 7 A 10
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		3 J 10 7 K 10 9 5 4 K Q 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 10 6 4 A K 6 4 6 9 7 5

2.	8 7 A 10 9 8 Q 10 8 4 A 10 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 7 6 5 A K 6 5 Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 10 5 4 3 K Q J 4 9 7 K 8

3.	10 7 A 8 5 4 K Q 7 5 Q 10 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 9 7 6 A 10 8 6 4 A 7 6
2 → 5 2 → 5 2 → 5	K 8 5 4 3 K Q J 10 9 K 9 8

4.	8 6 A K Q 6 Q 9 8 7 8 7 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 7 J 9 5 A K 10 6 Q 10 9 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 5 4 3 10 8 7 4 5 4 A K

5.	10 5 4 Q J 9 4 K Q 4 A 10 9
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 8 7 5 A 8 7 6 5 K Q 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 8 6 3 A K 10 6 10 9 8 5

6.	Q 8 A 9 8 5 K Q 6 5 4 10 9
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		5 3 10 7 4 A 10 8 A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 7 6 4 K Q J 6 9 7 K 8

7.	8 K 8 6 5 4 8 7 5 4 A K 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K Q 4 J 10 K 10 9 Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 1	10 7 6 5 3 A Q 9 7 A Q 6 7

8.	6 A 7 6 4 K 10 9 4 K 8 6 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 5 3 J 10 8 A Q 8 5 A 9 7
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 K Q 9 5 7 6 Q 10

9.	— K J 10 4 Q 9 6 5 4 10 9 7 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 8 7 3 Q 5 K 8 7 A K Q 8
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	Q 10 6 5 4 A 9 8 7 6 A 10 5

10.	8 J 10 7 4 A 10 9 4 K Q 9 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 5 4 A Q 6 K Q 8 6 8 7 6
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 2	K Q 10 6 3 K 9 8 5 7 5 A 10

11.	5 K J 10 6 5 9 8 6 4 K Q 10
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 8 Q 7 K Q 10 7 A 8 7 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 7 6 4 3 A 9 8 4 A 5 9 6

12.	Q K Q 9 8 K 10 7 4 10 9 8 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 3 A J 6 Q 8 6 5 K Q 7
2 → 5 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 8 7 5 4 10 7 5 4 A 9 A 6

13.	Q J 7 6 5 A K 10 8 6 5 10 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 6 3 10 9 8 9 7 4 A K Q 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 3	K 10 7 5 4 A K Q 4 Q 9 8 6

14.	K Q Q 10 8 7 4 A 7 6 10 9 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 7 J 9 K 10 8 5 4 A Q 8 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	10 6 5 4 3 A K 6 5 Q 9 K 6

15.	4 9 7 5 4 A 10 7 6 4 A 9 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 8 5 J 8 6 K 9 5 K Q 10 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	Q 10 7 6 3 A K Q 10 Q 8 8 7

16.	8 7 Q 10 9 8 7 A 8 7 A 6 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 3 K J K 10 9 5 4 K 9 8 7
2 → 3 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 6 5 4 A 6 5 4 Q 6 Q 10

17.	— J 9 6 5 A 10 8 5 4 K 9 6 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 5 3 K 10 8 K 9 7 6 A Q
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 A Q 7 4 Q 10 8 7

18.	— K 7 6 4 A 10 8 6 4 Q 10 9 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 8 7 6 8 5 K Q 5 A K 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 5 4 3 A Q J 10 9 9 7 8

19.	7 Q J 7 5 4 A K 6 5 8 6 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 8 3 8 6 Q 9 8 4 A K Q 10
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 6 5 4 A K 10 9 10 7 9 7

20.	Q 5 K 10 7 6 Q 10 9 5 K Q 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 7 Q J 8 K 8 7 6 A 10 8 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 10 6 4 3 A 9 5 4 A 4 9 7

212.	— K 10 5 4 9 8 7 6 K Q 8 7 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 10 8 5 A Q 8 K Q 10 4 10 5
2 → 5 2 → 4 2 → 3	Q 7 6 4 3 J 9 7 6 A 5 A 9

293.	10 Q 8 6 4 10 5 4 A Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 6 4 10 7 A K Q 7 K 10 8 5
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	Q 8 7 5 3 A K J 9 5 9 8 6 —

887.	5 4 K Q 10 9 5 Q 9 7 4 K 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 J 6 K 8 6 5 A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 5	K 10 8 7 3 A 8 7 4 A 10 10 8

891.	K 7 K 10 8 4 9 8 4 K Q 6 5
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 3 Q 9 5 K Q 7 5 A 9 8 7
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	Q 10 6 5 4 A J 7 6 A 10 6 10

961.	7 4 3 A J 9 6 10 9 8 A K 7
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 10 4 A K 7 5 4 10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K Q 10 6 5 K Q 8 7 5 Q 6 Q

975.	7 6 8 7 6 5 A K Q 10 6 Q 10
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 10 Q 4 9 7 4 A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 4	Q 8 5 4 3 A K J 10 9 8 5 K

1215.	Q 10 7 K 10 9 8 K 10 9 7 K 10
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 7 6 5 Q 8 5 4 A Q 9 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 5	8 6 5 4 3 A Q J 4 A 6 8 5

1315.	Q 5 J 8 7 6 A K Q 8 7 8 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 4 Q 4 10 9 6 5 4 A K 7 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 5	10 8 7 6 3 A K 10 9 5 — Q 10 9

1324.	5 A J 9 8 A 9 8 7 5 10 7 6
A J 9 2 3 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 8 K 7 5 K Q 10 6 Q 8 5
2 → 5 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 7 6 4 3 Q 10 6 4 4 A K 9