Study AB01   Main

# Opening Bid Stats

by Richard Pavlicek

The purpose of this study is to determine statistics for opening bids based on the Pavlicek methods. System structure includes five-card majors, strong notrumps (15-17 HCP) and convenient minors (longer or stronger) which is always 3+ cards. Further, when a choice exists between 1 NT and a major, 1 NT requires no doubleton worse than Q-x.

For each of the five one-bids, random hands were dealt until 100,000 fitting examples were found. The following table shows the empirical frequency of each opening bid. This assumes opener is the dealer, as after one hand passes, the frequency of the next hand opening would be greater; and in third and fourth seat, requirements are often shaded for tactical benefit.

Frequency
OpeningPercent of Hands
1 9.3094
1 9.4789
1 6.2499
1 6.5183
1 NT*4.6877
Any one-bid36.2442

*In practice this would be slightly higher because off-shape 1 NT bids were ignored.
Hence 1 and 1 would be slightly lower to compensate.

Each of the tables that follow summarize a specific statistic for each opening bid. Each table cell shows the number of hands out of 100,000 which fit that criterion. The numbers are easily converted to percent by placing a decimal point three digits from the right.

## Suit Lengths

Club Length
Opening012345678910
1 00089013186235127188074533696704
1 1833128322957932883187034085805000
1 34321632229553264591804960761063000
1 40221776029606255221724157381083000
1 NT00189594351629226829900000

Diamond Length
Opening012345678910
1 18781303830495342311962673200000
1 00082953014937835186234347700492
1 33581656029430264891816158741262000
1 39601752029693256261727758021202000
1 NT00189514356129194829400000

Heart Length
Opening012345678910
1 19441135424465297953171472800000
1 22671258324859290463055868700000
1 00000638822837066599801054
1 39011735629955255001735258221086000
1 NT00194404474429240657600000

Opening012345678910
1 18601146624359298143177872300000
1 23001234024732293773057168000000
1 413118713311922675618182102600000
1 0000065886267986308918891
1 NT00192494458229737643200000

 Study AB01   Main Top   Opening Bid Stats

## Hand Strength

For explanations of any statistic see Hand Evaluation Stats.

Controls
Opening0123456789
1 048561781732910290191277150211486116
1 069081783933081286191290250801451114
1 03859194523242427446132865284117373
1 02907196783226827601131455189111793
1 NT022063250171393623731372113674270

High-Card Points
Opening78910111213141516171819202122
1 048486256794931913223806202685906452132065722368077730187
1 140437291596941889823522196076146477532825747371878533796
1 155734477212718181281819815235967771634932408826151123453108
1 257703521313191179331776515121969371654892404426041127374116
1 NT0000000043186331052370900000

Revalued Points
Opening1314151617181920212223
1 260882424816484872859305604565639381910876538
1 256672365416356898661715893578239662002987536
1 20259198871624512568953074255614382123881424839
1 20214194291661912505961974065640393423931396845
1 NT001695533536299031584537601000

Playing Tricks
Opening44.555.566.577.588.599.51010.51111.512
1 4433483911815651167831425514012111547129406822839984361443373
1 414332585431484415953141461469111720758445252435113447513755181
1 08821726684131081755619381158471122169644019184378723469234
1 09820936427124791657219762164081164372684102193385825283175
1 NT027059011353029972348881397714412100000000

Defensive Tricks
Opening00.511.522.533.544.555.56
1 211610313498209212903224875958069593044966543
1 15149713441210382893924518994769853129960403
1 3926141040782192526506236631116075072762843774
1 2816137941172214226448235631132774022671843586
1 NT002651992125013353134098163231488000

Losing Tricks
Opening0123456789
1 01678464627151082851733626158361372
1 04989194975161502944632420146711317
1 0711714708002228973767525343443653
1 0414216158131236393809623945438048
1 NT00000216738436494089873116

 Study AB01   Main Top   Opening Bid Stats

## Hand Pattern

Freakness
Opening01234567891011121314
1 92942503491311719619285360780154044192919871732653154
1 8656237058848166621903236881039947281866184815837520132
1 0014767163512907056321941282782782275123763459234
1 0014222154752747150762234290512657272021169748291
1 NT234014699829601000000000000

Generic Shape
Opening44325332543154224333632264216331552144417321
1 25034913113592107619294569357563607064352316
1 23705884813451105798656558156803688259660832218
1 01476720405163510866585875632754603317
1 014222194301547508041805250761106603148
1 NT46998296010023401000000

Opening64305440553065116520722274117420733082218311
1 1728164301046977616556563327273174
1 17151566795932944557563457371263184
1 25282380243313901337899870783522385246
1 25692359333413791344865751775527362239

Opening751083206610841092119310922076008500A2109400
1 1551730713919120540
1 1791587889291287620
1 26223722610442312811844
1 2322113269940262221711

 Study AB01   Main Top   Opening Bid Stats