Simulation 8Z26 Main

Lead vs. One Notrump

by Richard Pavlicek

Which card would you lead?

Any vul West North East South
10 8 6 Table 1 NT
J 7 4 3 Pass Pass Pass
A 10 5 4
A 4
1 NT

Leads compared: 6, 3, 4, A.

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 15-17 HCP; balanced (5-card major allowed if doubleton is J-x or better). North: 1-7 HCP; no 5+ major; no 6+ minor; 2+ clubs (else Stayman). East: 7-13 HCP; no 6+ major; no 7+ minor; balanced or less than 10 revalued points.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

A clear win for the 3, beating all other leads in all categories. Note the narrow win of the 6 over the 4, though losing one category.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
6 5.7605 25.41 31.30
3 5.8635 29.13 30.14
4 5.7255 26.09 28.88
A 5.6593 22.70 30.97

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
6	5.7605	25.41	31.30
3	5.8635	29.13	30.14
4	5.7255	26.09	28.88
A	5.6593	22.70	30.97

Comparison Net W-L NV Net Score NV Net IMPs Vul Net Score Vul Net IMPs
3 vs. 6 +768 +75,860 +2214 +104,560 +2790
3 vs. 4 +1140 +77,860 +2385 +100,610 +2844
3 vs. A +1697 +139,550 +4188 +190,600 +5211
6 vs. 4 +437 +2000 +190 -3950 +73
6 vs. A +909 +63,690 +1968 +86,040 +2414
4 vs. A +457 +61,690 +1779 +89,990 +2348

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
3 vs. 6	+768	+75,860	+2214	+104,560	+2790
3 vs. 4	+1140	+77,860	+2385	+100,610	+2844
3 vs. A	+1697	+139,550	+4188	+190,600	+5211
6 vs. 4	+437	+2000	+190	-3950	+73
6 vs. A	+909	+63,690	+1968	+86,040	+2414
4 vs. A	+457	+61,690	+1779	+89,990	+2348

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (15 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. K J
9 5 2
K 9 8 7 2
8 7 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 5 4 3
10 8
J 3
10 6 3 2
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 6 9 7 2
A K Q 6
Q 6
K Q J 9

2. Q J 9
K 10
7 3 2
9 8 7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 4 2
Q 9 6 5
K Q
Q J 10 3
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 6 A K 5 3
A 8 2
J 9 8 6
K 6

3. Q 9 3
Q 6
J 9 7 6 2
Q 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 4 2
K 9 5
K 3
10 9 8 6 2
6 → 4
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A J 7 5
A 10 8 2
Q 8
K J 5

4. A 9 7 3
8
Q 7 2
J 9 7 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K J 4 2
Q 9 6
J 9 3
8 6 2
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 4
A → 4 Q 5
A K 10 5 2
K 8 6
K Q 10

5. K 9 5 3
Q 6
Q 7 3
6 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 2
K 10 9 5
9 8 6 2
K J 7
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 6 A J 7 4
A 8 2
K J
Q 10 9 8

6. 9 5
K 5 2
9 8 7 3
J 10 8 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 4 3
10 6
K Q 6
Q 7 5 2
6 → 7
3 → 6
4 → 7
A → 6 A K 7 2
A Q 9 8
J 2
K 9 3

7. Q 9 7 3
9 5 2
8 6
Q 10 9 8
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 5 4 2
K Q 6
K Q 7
6 5 2
6 → 6
3 → 8
4 → 8
A → 6 A K
A 10 8
J 9 3 2
K J 7 3

8. Q 7 5
8 6 5
J 8 3 2
8 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 9 4
Q 10 9
K 9 7
Q 9 5 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 6
A → 6 K J 3 2
A K 2
Q 6
K J 10 6

9. A 7 5
8 5 2
9 7 6 3
7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q 3 2
K 10 6
Q J 2
10 9 3
6 → 7
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 J 9 4
A Q 9
K 8
K Q J 8 6

10. A 7 2
10 9 8 6
J 9 8
9 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 9 5
Q 5 2
K 7
Q J 8 7 5
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 K Q 4 3
A K
Q 6 3 2
K 10 6

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

11. K 9 5 3
K 10 8
7
10 8 7 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q J 7
9 6 2
Q 8 6
J 9 5
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 6 4 2
A Q 5
K J 9 3 2
K Q 2

12. 9 7
K 9 6
9 8 7
K J 8 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 5 4 3 2
Q 8
K Q J 3
10 2
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A K Q
A 10 5 2
6 2
Q 9 7 5

13. K 7 4 3
10 5
J 3 2
9 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 9 2
A Q 6
9 6
J 10 8 7 6
6 → 7
3 → 8
4 → 7
A → 8 Q J 5
K 9 8 2
K Q 8 7
K Q

14. K 9 4 2
8 6
K J 9 7
10 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 7 3
K 10 9 5
6 3
Q 8 6 5
6 → 2
3 → 4
4 → 2
A → 2 A J 5
A Q 2
Q 8 2
K J 9 2

15. 4 3
K 9
J 9 7 6
Q J 8 7 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 9 7 5 2
10 6 5 2
Q 8
K 3
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 4
A → 4 A Q J
A Q 8
K 3 2
10 9 5 2

16. 9 5
10 9 5
K Q 8 3
9 8 7 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K J 7 3 2
Q 2
J 9 2
Q J 6
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A Q 4
A K 8 6
7 6
K 10 3 2

17. K 9 7 4
8 5 2
K 9 7 6
9 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 5 3
A 9 6
Q 3 2
K 8 6 3
6 → 5
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 5 A Q 2
K Q 10
J 8
Q J 10 7 5

18. J 5 3
5 2
K J 8 6 2
6 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 7 4
A 10 8
Q 7
K Q 10 9 7
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 7 A K Q 2
K Q 9 6
9 3
J 8 5

19. J 4 3
9 8
J 9 7 3
Q 10 8 7
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 7
Q 10 5
K 8 2
J 6 5 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 7 K 9 5 2
A K 6 2
Q 6
K 9 3

20. J 9 4 2
2
K 7 2
9 8 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A K 5
K 10 9 5
9 8
Q 10 7 6
6 → 6
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 7 Q 7 3
A Q 8 6
Q J 6 3
K J

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

97. 4 3 2
2
8 7 6 3
K 10 9 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 9 5
K 9 6
K 9 2
J 6 3
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 6 K J 7
A Q 10 8 5
Q J
Q 8 5

254. K 7 4 2
9 6 5 2
8 6
J 9 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 5 3
A Q 10
Q J 9 7
10 8 3
6 → 6
3 → 8
4 → 5
A → 6 A J 9
K 8
K 3 2
K Q 7 6 2

263. 9 7 3 2
A 10 6 2
7
Q 10 6 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q
8 5
Q J 9 6 3 2
K 8 7 3
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 3
A → 8 A K J 5 4
K Q 9
K 8
J 9 2

382. A 5 4 2
K 10 5 2
8 6
9 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 3
9 6
Q J 9 7 3
K Q 10 6
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 4
A → 8 K Q 9 7
A Q 8
K 2
J 8 5 3

732. J 5 3
8
8 7 6 3
J 9 7 6 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 2
A Q 6 5 2
Q J 9
Q 3
6 → 9
3 → 10
4 → 8
A → 6 A K 7 4
K 10 9
K 2
K 10 8 5

979. K 9 4 3
9 6
9 7
J 8 7 6 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 5 2
K Q 10 8 5
Q J 8
5 3
6 → 4
3 → 9
4 → 4
A → 4 A J 7
A 2
K 6 3 2
K Q 10 9

1022. 7 3 2
A 9 5 2
Q 6
7 6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 5
8 6
K J 9 8 7
K J 8
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 8
A → 7 A K J 4
K Q 10
3 2
Q 10 9 2

1200. Q J 9
A 10 9 6
9 8 3
10 8 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 2
5 2
Q J 2
K J 9 7 5 2
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 3
A → 10 A K 5 4 3
K Q 8
K 7 6
Q 6

1362. A Q 9 5
5 2
9 8 7 3
5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 7 3
K Q 10 9 8
Q J
9 8 7
6 → 4
3 → 8
4 → 3
A → 4 K 4 2
A 6
K 6 2
K Q J 10 6

1512. 9 7 3 2
A 2
9 6 3
10 9 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 5 4
K 9 8 6 5
Q J 2
Q J
6 → 8
3 → 9
4 → 8
A → 4 A K J
Q 10
K 8 7
K 8 7 6 5

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

1743. K Q 9 5
10 6
7 3
8 7 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A J 7 4
8 5 2
Q J 9 6
J 6
6 → 8
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 3 2
A K Q 9
K 8 2
K Q 10 9

1758. J 9 5 3
8 6 2
J 2
K J 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 2
A K 10 5
Q 8 6
9 8 7 5
6 → 6
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 6 A K Q 4
Q 9
K 9 7 3
Q 10 6

2077. Q J 4 3
Q 8 6
9 6
Q 10 7 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 7 5
A 10 5 2
K Q 8 7
3 2
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 8
A → 6 A K 2
K 9
J 3 2
K J 9 8 6

2344. J 9
K 10 6 2
8 3 2
10 6 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 5 2
Q 9
Q J 6
K 9 8 7 3
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 6
A → 9 K Q 7 4 3
A 8 5
K 9 7
Q J

2400. A 7 2
10 8 5
7 3
Q 8 7 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 5
K 9 2
Q J 9 8 6
K J 5
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 8 K Q J 4 3
A Q 6
K 2
10 9 6

2475. J 9 5
10 8
7 6 3
Q J 9 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 4
K Q 9 6 2
Q J 9
7 5 2
6 → 3
3 → 9
4 → 4
A → 5 A Q 7 3 2
A 5
K 8 2
K 10 8

2547. K 9 7 4
Q 10 8 6
9 3 2
Q 7
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q
5 2
Q J 8 7
K J 10 8 6 2
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 3
A → 10 A J 5 3 2
A K 9
K 6
9 5 3

2911. 9 7 5 3
10 5
8 7
K 10 8 6 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 2
A Q 9 8
Q J 9 6
J 9
6 → 7
3 → 8
4 → 5
A → 6 A K 4
K 6 2
K 3 2
Q 7 5 3

3470. Q J 7
8 5
8 3 2
9 8 7 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 9 5 2
A Q 10 9
Q J 9
J 5
6 → 7
3 → 8
4 → 5
A → 6 A 4 3
K 6 2
K 7 6
K Q 10 2

3590. 9 7 3 2
K 9 5
8 3
7 6 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q
Q 8 6 2
K Q 7
J 9 8 3
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 8
A → 6 A J 5 4
A 10
J 9 6 2
K Q 10

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

3610. A 7 5
9 8 6 5
J
10 8 7 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 4
Q 2
K Q 7 6 3
J 9 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 6 K 9 3 2
A K 10
9 8 2
K Q 6

3656. K 5 3
10 9
8 7 2
10 6 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 9 7
K Q 8 5
Q J 9 6
Q 7
6 → 4
3 → 8
4 → 4
A → 4 A Q 4 2
A 6 2
K 3
K J 9 8

3777. 5 3
K Q 9 5
8 6
J 10 8 7 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q J 7 4
8 6 2
Q J 3
9 5
6 → 8
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 K 9 2
A 10
K 9 7 2
K Q 3 2

3936. J 5 3
A 10 8 6
9 7 3
Q 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 7 4
Q 5
Q J 6
K J 10 9 8
6 → 7
3 → 5
4 → 6
A → 9 A K Q 2
K 9 2
K 8 2
7 6 3

4022. J 7 2
8 6 5
8 6
K 10 9 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 9
K Q 9
Q J 9 3 2
J 8 2
6 → 3
3 → 9
4 → 5
A → 5 A Q 5 4 3
A 10 2
K 7
Q 7 5

4040. 9 2
K 8
8 7 3 2
J 9 8 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q J 5 4
10 9 6
Q J 6
Q 6
6 → 8
3 → 5
4 → 4
A → 5 A 7 3
A Q 5 2
K 9
K 10 7 2

4442. Q 9 5 4
Q 9
8 6
Q 9 7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 3
A 8 6 5 2
Q J 9 3
10 6
6 → 6
3 → 8
4 → 5
A → 6 A K 7 2
K 10
K 7 2
K J 8 3

4745. A Q 9 2
10 9 5
9
10 7 6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 4 3
6
Q J 8 7 6 3
K Q 9
6 → 6
3 → 4
4 → 5
A → 9 K J 5
A K Q 8 2
K 2
J 8 2

4997. J 7
K 10 8
7 6 3
J 10 9 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 9 3
9 2
Q J 9 8
8 5 3
6 → 8
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 K 5 4 2
A Q 6 5
K 2
K Q 6

5066. 9 7 5
K 8 6
7 3 2
J 8 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q J 4 2
10 9 2
Q 9
Q 5 3
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 6 K 3
A Q 5
K J 8 6
K 10 9 6

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

5128. J 5 4 3
A 6 2
9 7 2
9 8 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 9 7
9 8
Q J 8
Q J 10 7 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 6
A → 9 K Q 2
K Q 10 5
K 6 3
K 5 3

5276. A 5 4 2
Q 10 6 5
2
7 6 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 7 3
9 8
K Q J 6
K J 10 9
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 8
A → 6 K Q J
A K 2
9 8 7 3
Q 8 3

5384. J 9 4
K 8 5
9 7 3
J 9 8 7
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q 7 5
Q
Q J 8 2
10 6 3 2
6 → 8
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 A 3 2
A 10 9 6 2
K 6
K Q 5

5470. Q 9 4
A 10 5
9 3 2
J 9 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 5 3 2
6 2
Q J 7
K Q 10 6
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 8 A K 7
K Q 9 8
K 8 6
8 5 2

5529. 5 4 3
10 9
K 6 3
10 7 6 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A J
K Q 5 2
J 8 7 2
Q 9 8
6 → 6
3 → 9
4 → 7
A → 8 K Q 9 7 2
A 8 6
Q 9
K J 5

5662. K 4
10 9 6
6 3 2
K 10 8 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 9 7 2
K Q 8
Q J 9
J 9 5
6 → 7
3 → 8
4 → 4
A → 5 A Q 5 3
A 5 2
K 8 7
Q 7 6

5988. 7 5 4 2
A K 8 5
2
9 7 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9
10 2
K J 8 7 6 3
Q J 10 2
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 8
A → 7 A K Q J 3
Q 9 6
Q 9
K 8 5

6262. K 9
9 8 5 2
K 9 7 6
7 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 3 2
10 6
Q 3
Q J 10 8 5 2
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 8
A → 7 Q J 7 5 4
A K Q
J 8 2
K 9

6475. J 9 3
K 10 8 2
9 3
K 10 9 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 7 5
9 5
Q J 8 7
8 7 2
6 → 8
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 K 4 2
A Q 6
K 6 2
Q J 6 3

6743. 9 7 5
A 9 2
8 7 3
K 5 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 3
10 8 5
Q J 2
Q 10 9 8 7
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 9 K Q J 4 2
K Q 6
K 9 6
J 6

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

6811. K J
9 6 2
8 7 3 2
10 8 6 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 5 4 2
Q 10 5
Q J 9
Q J
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 5
A → 5 A 7 3
A K 8
K 6
K 9 7 5 3

7034. K Q 4 2
Q 10 8 5
7
8 6 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 9
6 2
Q J 6 2
K 10 9 7 3
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 4
A → 8 A 7 5 3
A K 9
K 9 8 3
Q J

7327. J 7 3
Q 8 5 2
7 3
K J 8 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q 5 4 2
6
Q J 9 8
10 9 5
6 → 8
3 → 5
4 → 4
A → 5 A 9
A K 10 9
K 6 2
Q 7 3 2

7717. 9 5
10 9 6 5
K 8 7 3
7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q J 7 3
Q 8
Q 9 2
J 10 3
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 5 A 4 2
A K 2
J 6
K Q 9 8 6

7786. Q J 9 5
10 8 5
9
J 10 8 7 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 4
A 6 2
Q 8 7 6 3
K 3 2
6 → 6
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 7 A 7 3 2
K Q 9
K J 2
Q 9 5

7813. J 7
K 6 2
9 7 6 3 2
8 7 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 9 5 4 3
Q 9 8
K Q
J 10 2
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 5 A Q 2
A 10 5
J 8
K Q 9 5 3

7845. 9 4 3
K Q 9
J 3
8 7 6 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A J 7 5 2
10 8 2
Q 2
J 10 9
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 5 K Q
A 6 5
K 9 8 7 6
K Q 5

7869. A K 9 5
9 8
8 7 6 3
6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 4 2
A 10 2
J 9 2
K J 10 8 7
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 8
A → 6 Q J 7 3
K Q 6 5
K Q
Q 9 2

7972. 7 4 3
K Q 6 2
6
J 8 6 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 5 2
10 9
Q J 9 8 3
K Q 9
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 8 A K Q J
A 8 5
K 7 2
10 7 5

7992. 7 4 2
Q 10 9 6
J 3
J 8 6 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 3
K 5
K 9 7 6 2
K 10 5
6 → 7
3 → 5
4 → 8
A → 7 A K J 5
A 8 2
Q 8
Q 9 7 2

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

8450. 7 5 2
K 9 5
6 3
9 7 6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q J 9 3
10 8 2
Q J 8
Q 10
6 → 9
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 K 4
A Q 6
K 9 7 2
K J 8 2

8600. A 9 5 2
9 6 2
9 3
9 8 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 7 3
A 8
J 8 7 6 2
K 10 7
6 → 6
3 → 7
4 → 8
A → 7 K J 4
K Q 10 5
K Q
Q J 6 5

8793. A 9 7 4
Q 9 2
J
10 9 7 6 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 3
K 10 8
Q 9 7 6 3 2
8 3
6 → 8
3 → 10
4 → 6
A → 7 Q J 5 2
A 6 5
K 8
K Q J 2

8953. 9 3
A 9 5 2
7 6 3
10 6 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q J 5 4
10 8 6
K J 2
9 8
6 → 9
3 → 5
4 → 7
A → 5 A 7 2
K Q
Q 9 8
K Q J 7 5

9127. A J 9 4
5 2
7 3 2
8 7 6 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 5 2
Q 9
Q J 8
K Q 9 3 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 6
A → 9 K Q 3
A K 10 8 6
K 9 6
J 10

9228. K J 7 4
Q 10 2
J 9
7 6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 2
9 8
K Q 8 3
Q J 9 8 2
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 9
A → 5 A Q 5 3
A K 6 5
7 6 2
K 10

9265. 7 5 3 2
Q 10 6
9 7 2
K J 8
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 4
A 8 2
Q J 3
Q 7 5 3 2
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 8 A K Q 9
K 9 5
K 8 6
10 9 6

9367. Q J 9 4
9 8
9 8 3
K J 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 5 2
A Q 10
Q J 7 2
10 9 6 2
6 → 6
3 → 8
4 → 5
A → 6 A K 7 3
K 6 5 2
K 6
Q 8 5

9665. A 3 2
8 5
9 7 3
8 7 6 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 9 7 5
A Q 2
Q J 6
10 9 2
6 → 9
3 → 8
4 → 6
A → 7 Q J 4
K 10 9 6
K 8 2
K Q J

9766. 9 7
10
K 8 7 6 3
10 9 7 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A Q 4 3 2
9 6 2
Q 9
K Q 2
6 → 7
3 → 6
4 → 8
A → 7 K J 5
A K Q 8 5
J 2
J 8 6

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

9981. Q J
K 9 8 5
9 7 3 2
J 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 9 4 3 2
A Q
Q 8 6
9 8 6 5
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A K 7 5
10 6 2
K J
K Q 10 7

9982. 9 7 2
A 9 5
K 9 7
9 8 7 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 5 4
Q 6 2
J 2
Q 10 6 2
6 → 5
3 → 4
4 → 5
A → 5 A K 3
K 10 8
Q 8 6 3
K J 5

9983. 9 3 2
A 9 5
8 7 2
K 7 6 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 5 4
Q 10 6
Q J 9
J 10 8 2
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 4
A → 5 A K Q 7
K 8 2
K 6 3
Q 9 3

9984. Q J 3
Q 6
J 9 7 6 3
J 9 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 7 5 4 2
9 8 5 2
Q
K Q 7 3
6 → 4
3 → 4
4 → 4
A → 4 A K 9
A K 10
K 8 2
10 8 5 2

9985. A 4 3 2
10 2
J 9 8 7 2
Q 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 7 5
K 9 8
Q
J 10 8 7 2
6 → 3
3 → 4
4 → 3
A → 3 K J
A Q 6 5
K 6 3
K 9 6 5

9986. 7 4
Q 6
7 6 3 2
K Q 8 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 9 5 3 2
K 10 9
Q
10 9 6 5
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 7 K Q J
A 8 5 2
K J 9 8
J 3

9987. J 7 5 3
—
K Q J 9 6
10 8 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 4
Q 9 8 6 2
7
Q J 7 6 5
6 → 3
3 → 2
4 → 3
A → 2 A K 9 2
A K 10 5
8 3 2
K 9

9988. 7 4
K 5 2
Q J 2
10 9 7 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 5 2
Q 9 8 6
K 6 3
Q 8 6
6 → 4
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 5 A Q J 9 3
A 10
9 8 7
K J 2

9989. 9 4 2
8 5
Q 9 8 7 3
K 8 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 7
K Q 6 2
J 2
J 9 7 3
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 6 A K 5 3
A 10 9
K 6
Q 10 5 2

9990. J 7 4 2
K 2
6 2
Q 10 9 7 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 9 3
9 6 5
Q J 9 3
J 3 2
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 K Q 5
A Q 10 8
K 8 7
K 8 5

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

9991. J 7 3
A 9 6 5
9 7
8 7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A 5 4 2
10 8 2
Q 6 3 2
K J
6 → 6
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 6 K Q 9
K Q
K J 8
Q 10 9 6 3

9992. 7 5 4
K 2
K J 8 6 3
10 8 6
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 9 2
A 9 8 6
7 2
K J 7 3
6 → 6
3 → 5
4 → 6
A → 5 A K Q 3
Q 10 5
Q 9
Q 9 5 2

9993. 9 4
10
K J 9 8 6
10 9 8 7 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table J 7 5 3
A Q 9 8 5
Q
J 5 3
6 → 5
3 → 6
4 → 5
A → 6 A K Q 2
K 6 2
7 3 2
K Q 6

9994. 9 5 3
Q 5
J 8 2
K 9 7 5 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K J 7 2
A 8 6
Q 9 3
10 8 3
6 → 6
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A Q 4
K 10 9 2
K 7 6
Q J 6

9995. 9 4
6 2
K J 9 7
10 9 7 5 3
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table A K Q 5 3
Q 8 5
8 3
8 6 2
6 → 8
3 → 8
4 → 7
A → 7 J 7 2
A K 10 9
Q 6 2
K Q J

9996. 9 3 2
A 9 5
8 7 3
J 10 8 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q J 5 4
Q 10
Q J 9
K 7 6 3
6 → 8
3 → 7
4 → 6
A → 7 A K 7
K 8 6 2
K 6 2
Q 9 2

9997. 3 2
6 2
Q J 7 6 2
K 8 7 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table Q 9 7 5 4
A K 5
8 3
J 10 6
6 → 5
3 → 5
4 → 5
A → 5 A K J
Q 10 9 8
K 9
Q 9 3 2

9998. 7 5 4
K 10 9 8
J 8 6
K 6 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K Q 3
Q 5
9 3 2
Q 10 9 8 3
6 → 4
3 → 3
4 → 5
A → 6 A J 9 2
A 6 2
K Q 7
J 7 2

9999. Q 9 4
Q 10 5 2
9
10 8 7 3 2
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table K 7 5
9 6
Q 7 6 2
K Q J 6
6 → 5
3 → 6
4 → 6
A → 6 A J 3 2
A K 8
K J 8 3
9 5

10000. K J 9
9 2
9 6 3
J 9 8 7 5
10 8 6
J 7 4 3
A 10 5 4
A 4 Table 5 3 2
Q 10 8
K J 8
K Q 3 2
6 → 7
3 → 7
4 → 7
A → 7 A Q 7 4
A K 6 5
Q 7 2
10 6

Simulation 8Z26 Main Top Lead vs. One Notrump

	Any vul	West	North	East	South
10 8 6					1 NT
J 7 4 3		Pass	Pass	Pass
A 10 5 4
A 4
	1 NT

1.	K J 9 5 2 K 9 8 7 2 8 7 5
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A Q 5 4 3 10 8 J 3 10 6 3 2
6 → 6 3 → 6 4 → 6 A → 6	9 7 2 A K Q 6 Q 6 K Q J 9

2.	Q J 9 K 10 7 3 2 9 8 7 5 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		7 4 2 Q 9 6 5 K Q Q J 10 3
6 → 7 3 → 7 4 → 7 A → 6	A K 5 3 A 8 2 J 9 8 6 K 6

3.	Q 9 3 Q 6 J 9 7 6 2 Q 7 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		K 4 2 K 9 5 K 3 10 9 8 6 2
6 → 4 3 → 5 4 → 5 A → 5	A J 7 5 A 10 8 2 Q 8 K J 5

4.	A 9 7 3 8 Q 7 2 J 9 7 5 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		K J 4 2 Q 9 6 J 9 3 8 6 2
6 → 4 3 → 4 4 → 4 A → 4	Q 5 A K 10 5 2 K 8 6 K Q 10

5.	K 9 5 3 Q 6 Q 7 3 6 5 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 2 K 10 9 5 9 8 6 2 K J 7
6 → 6 3 → 6 4 → 6 A → 6	A J 7 4 A 8 2 K J Q 10 9 8

6.	9 5 K 5 2 9 8 7 3 J 10 8 6
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q J 4 3 10 6 K Q 6 Q 7 5 2
6 → 7 3 → 6 4 → 7 A → 6	A K 7 2 A Q 9 8 J 2 K 9 3

7.	Q 9 7 3 9 5 2 8 6 Q 10 9 8
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 5 4 2 K Q 6 K Q 7 6 5 2
6 → 6 3 → 8 4 → 8 A → 6	A K A 10 8 J 9 3 2 K J 7 3

8.	Q 7 5 8 6 5 J 8 3 2 8 7 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A 9 4 Q 10 9 K 9 7 Q 9 5 2
6 → 7 3 → 7 4 → 6 A → 6	K J 3 2 A K 2 Q 6 K J 10 6

9.	A 7 5 8 5 2 9 7 6 3 7 5 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		K Q 3 2 K 10 6 Q J 2 10 9 3
6 → 7 3 → 6 4 → 5 A → 6	J 9 4 A Q 9 K 8 K Q J 8 6

10.	A 7 2 10 9 8 6 J 9 8 9 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 9 5 Q 5 2 K 7 Q J 8 7 5
6 → 6 3 → 6 4 → 5 A → 6	K Q 4 3 A K Q 6 3 2 K 10 6

11.	K 9 5 3 K 10 8 7 10 8 7 6 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A Q J 7 9 6 2 Q 8 6 J 9 5
6 → 8 3 → 7 4 → 8 A → 6	4 2 A Q 5 K J 9 3 2 K Q 2

12.	9 7 K 9 6 9 8 7 K J 8 6 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 5 4 3 2 Q 8 K Q J 3 10 2
6 → 5 3 → 5 4 → 5 A → 5	A K Q A 10 5 2 6 2 Q 9 7 5

13.	K 7 4 3 10 5 J 3 2 9 5 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A 9 2 A Q 6 9 6 J 10 8 7 6
6 → 7 3 → 8 4 → 7 A → 8	Q J 5 K 9 8 2 K Q 8 7 K Q

14.	K 9 4 2 8 6 K J 9 7 10 7 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 7 3 K 10 9 5 6 3 Q 8 6 5
6 → 2 3 → 4 4 → 2 A → 2	A J 5 A Q 2 Q 8 2 K J 9 2

15.	4 3 K 9 J 9 7 6 Q J 8 7 6
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		K 9 7 5 2 10 6 5 2 Q 8 K 3
6 → 4 3 → 4 4 → 4 A → 4	A Q J A Q 8 K 3 2 10 9 5 2

16.	9 5 10 9 5 K Q 8 3 9 8 7 5
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		K J 7 3 2 Q 2 J 9 2 Q J 6
6 → 5 3 → 5 4 → 5 A → 5	A Q 4 A K 8 6 7 6 K 10 3 2

17.	K 9 7 4 8 5 2 K 9 7 6 9 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 5 3 A 9 6 Q 3 2 K 8 6 3
6 → 5 3 → 6 4 → 6 A → 5	A Q 2 K Q 10 J 8 Q J 10 7 5

18.	J 5 3 5 2 K J 8 6 2 6 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		9 7 4 A 10 8 Q 7 K Q 10 9 7
6 → 7 3 → 7 4 → 8 A → 7	A K Q 2 K Q 9 6 9 3 J 8 5

19.	J 4 3 9 8 J 9 7 3 Q 10 8 7
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A Q 7 Q 10 5 K 8 2 J 6 5 2
6 → 7 3 → 7 4 → 7 A → 7	K 9 5 2 A K 6 2 Q 6 K 9 3

20.	J 9 4 2 2 K 7 2 9 8 5 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A K 5 K 10 9 5 9 8 Q 10 7 6
6 → 6 3 → 7 4 → 7 A → 7	Q 7 3 A Q 8 6 Q J 6 3 K J

97.	4 3 2 2 8 7 6 3 K 10 9 7 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		A Q 9 5 K 9 6 K 9 2 J 6 3
6 → 7 3 → 7 4 → 8 A → 6	K J 7 A Q 10 8 5 Q J Q 8 5

254.	K 7 4 2 9 6 5 2 8 6 J 9 5
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 5 3 A Q 10 Q J 9 7 10 8 3
6 → 6 3 → 8 4 → 5 A → 6	A J 9 K 8 K 3 2 K Q 7 6 2

263.	9 7 3 2 A 10 6 2 7 Q 10 6 5
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 8 5 Q J 9 6 3 2 K 8 7 3
6 → 4 3 → 4 4 → 3 A → 8	A K J 5 4 K Q 9 K 8 J 9 2

382.	A 5 4 2 K 10 5 2 8 6 9 7 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 3 9 6 Q J 9 7 3 K Q 10 6
6 → 5 3 → 5 4 → 4 A → 8	K Q 9 7 A Q 8 K 2 J 8 5 3

732.	J 5 3 8 8 7 6 3 J 9 7 6 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 9 2 A Q 6 5 2 Q J 9 Q 3
6 → 9 3 → 10 4 → 8 A → 6	A K 7 4 K 10 9 K 2 K 10 8 5

979.	K 9 4 3 9 6 9 7 J 8 7 6 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 5 2 K Q 10 8 5 Q J 8 5 3
6 → 4 3 → 9 4 → 4 A → 4	A J 7 A 2 K 6 3 2 K Q 10 9

1022.	7 3 2 A 9 5 2 Q 6 7 6 5 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		Q 9 5 8 6 K J 9 8 7 K J 8
6 → 6 3 → 6 4 → 8 A → 7	A K J 4 K Q 10 3 2 Q 10 9 2

1200.	Q J 9 A 10 9 6 9 8 3 10 8 3
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		7 2 5 2 Q J 2 K J 9 7 5 2
6 → 4 3 → 4 4 → 3 A → 10	A K 5 4 3 K Q 8 K 7 6 Q 6

1362.	A Q 9 5 5 2 9 8 7 3 5 3 2
10 8 6 J 7 4 3 A 10 5 4 A 4		J 7 3 K Q 10 9 8 Q J 9 8 7
6 → 4 3 → 8 4 → 3 A → 4	K 4 2 A 6 K 6 2 K Q J 10 6