Simulation 8Z23 Main

# Notrump or Five Diamonds?

by Richard Pavlicek

An occasional bidding problem occurs when partner opens 2 NT and you hold a weak hand with a long minor suit. Few systems allow any way to stop in a minor-suit partscore — and rightfully so — so the inevitable choices are to pass, raise to 3 NT, or bid game in your minor. None of these is appealing, so it’s more like choosing the least of evils.

Marion Gebhardt of Richardson, Texas, asked how to bid the following hand after partner opens 2 NT (20-21).

 West North2 NT EastPass South? 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

Should South pass, raise to 3 NT, or bid 5 ?

On a good day partner will have A-K-x, and 3 NT will make in a breeze (unless you’re off five tricks first); and 3 NT will usually have chances opposite any three diamonds. But if partner has a doubleton diamond, it could be a miserable ride, as even 2 NT will usually fail. For this reason many players would exclude passing; if you’re going to risk playing notrump, you want the game bonus when it’s right.

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the South hand fixed. North: 20-21 HCP; balanced; 5-card major allowed if the doubleton is at least J-x. Further, to eliminate deals likely to breed interference, East playing tricks less than 7 or freakness less than 6; i.e., East would need 7+ playing tricks and extreme shape to interfere. Likewise for West, although less relevant.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Percent shows how often the contract is made (including with overtrick) and Overtrick Percent how often an overtrick is made. The second table compares the bids directly, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

Results may be surprising, particularly that raising to 3 NT is the worst choice at any form of scoring and vulnerability. The bottom line is that undertricks matter, so trying for the gold ring doesn’t pay when the success rate is so low. Five diamonds is the all-around winner, though not by a wide margin over passing 2 NT.

In practice I think the IMP advantage of 5 would be lower, because opener needs an exceptional hand to succeed, and with some of those hands he will continue to 6 . Certainly, a typical 5 bid would be at least a king better than the actual hand. If you contend that opener is forced to pass 5 , you will miss some nice slams in other cases.

Results for 10,000 Deals
ContractTrick AverageMake PercentOvertrick Percent
2 NT N7.184438.0018.51
3 NT N7.184418.514.03
5 S9.824421.581.89

ComparisonNet W-LNet ScoreNet IMPsNet ScoreNet IMPs
5 S vs. 2 NT N+48+268,170+4762+627,020+8331
5 S vs. 3 NT N+3432+446,750+12,257+842,850+18,518
2 NT N vs. 3 NT N+6298+178,580+11,039+215,830+11,784

### Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each option). Numbers after each contract show the tricks won by declarer with double-dummy play all-around.

 1. A 7 K Q 8 7 K J 2 A K J 10 Q 10 9 8 5 2 J 6 7 Q 9 5 4 K J 6 A 10 9 4 3 2 A 8 3 7 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 2. K 8 2 A Q 10 9 3 A 3 A K J A 10 9 7 6 8 7 6 2 K 7 2 Q Q J 5 K J 4 J 8 10 9 7 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3. K Q 10 7 Q 6 4 A K J 7 A J A J 8 6 5 K 10 3 2 2 K 5 4 9 2 A J 9 8 7 8 3 Q 10 9 7 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4. J 9 A 8 6 A K 8 3 A K Q 9 A K Q 10 6 5 J 10 3 7 2 J 7 8 7 2 K Q 9 7 4 2 J 10 5 4 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 5. A 6 5 K 9 8 A K 2 A K 9 4 K Q 10 8 2 J 7 6 2 J Q J 5 J 9 7 A Q 10 4 3 8 7 3 10 7 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 6. A Q 7 K 7 6 4 2 A 3 A K J 10 6 5 2 A J 3 K J 7 Q 9 7 K J 9 8 Q 10 9 8 8 2 10 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7. A 9 8 Q J 9 8 A K A K 10 9 K Q J 7 6 6 4 3 7 3 Q 7 5 10 5 2 A K 10 7 2 J 8 2 J 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8. K 8 2 A J 10 8 A J A K 7 4 Q 10 9 7 6 K 6 4 3 J 10 9 5 A J 5 Q 9 7 3 2 K 8 7 2 Q 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9. A K 5 2 K 10 8 2 K J 8 A Q J 10 9 8 A J 7 7 3 2 K J 10 Q 7 6 Q 9 6 4 3 A 9 7 5 4 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 10. J 10 7 A K J 10 7 A K K J 5 A K Q 8 6 2 9 6 3 J 3 2 4 9 5 Q 8 4 2 8 7 A Q 10 9 7 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 11. A K Q 9 A Q 7 2 A J 3 9 4 8 6 5 K J 10 K 8 7 2 K Q 7 J 10 7 2 9 8 6 4 3 — A J 10 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 12. A K J 9 10 7 2 K J 3 A K J Q 10 7 2 Q 8 6 4 8 2 Q 10 7 8 6 5 A K J 9 3 A 7 9 5 4 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 13. A K 10 9 A Q 2 J 3 A Q 10 5 Q J 7 2 J 9 6 4 3 K 7 9 7 8 6 5 K 10 8 7 A 8 2 K J 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 14. A 6 9 6 2 A K J 8 7 A K J Q J 10 7 5 A Q 8 4 2 9 7 4 K 9 8 2 K J 10 7 3 3 Q 10 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 15. K 6 5 A K J 7 3 2 A K Q 4 A Q 10 Q 7 4 3 K 8 J 10 7 5 J 9 8 7 2 10 9 8 6 2 A J 9 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 16. A Q J K Q J 7 K J K J 10 7 10 8 6 2 A 8 6 4 A 8 3 9 4 K 9 7 5 10 9 3 2 7 2 A Q 5 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 17. A K J 6 5 K 3 2 A K 3 K 9 Q 10 7 Q 8 6 4 J 8 7 A Q 7 9 8 2 A J 10 9 7 2 J 10 5 4 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 18. K Q 7 A K 9 6 3 A 8 2 K Q J 10 6 2 Q J 10 8 4 — J 7 5 4 A 9 8 5 7 2 K J 7 3 A 10 9 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 19. A K J 7 K J 6 A K 8 2 J 5 Q 10 9 2 A 10 9 4 3 J 10 9 4 8 6 5 Q 8 7 2 7 3 A K Q 7 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 20. A K Q A K 9 7 K J 3 2 9 7 J 10 2 6 3 2 8 7 A K Q 5 4 9 8 7 6 5 Q J 10 8 4 A J 10 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 151. A Q 9 7 A 4 A 7 2 K Q J 9 K J 10 5 10 9 7 2 K J 8 A 7 8 6 2 K Q J 8 6 3 3 10 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 240. K 6 A Q 10 3 A K J K J 9 7 Q J 8 2 K J 9 4 8 7 3 10 4 A 10 9 7 5 8 7 6 2 2 A Q 5 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 425. K 10 9 K Q 9 7 A K 7 K Q J A 7 2 A 10 8 2 J A 10 9 5 4 Q J 8 6 5 J 6 4 3 8 3 2 7 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 447. Q J 8 A K J 7 A K 3 Q J 9 A K 6 2 Q 10 9 6 4 J 8 7 4 10 9 7 5 8 3 2 2 A K 10 7 5 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 548. K Q 10 8 Q 4 A J 2 A K Q 4 A J 6 5 2 7 6 3 K 7 3 J 5 9 7 A K J 10 9 8 2 8 10 9 7 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 883. K Q J 10 A K 10 A 8 3 K 9 5 9 7 J 9 8 7 6 3 2 K 2 J 10 A 8 6 5 2 Q 4 J 7 A Q 7 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 931. A K 9 5 K Q 10 A K 8 J 9 5 Q 8 7 6 8 7 6 4 3 — A Q 10 4 J 10 2 A J 9 2 J 7 3 2 K 7 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 1074. 10 7 6 A K 8 A K J K Q 7 4 Q J 5 2 10 9 7 6 3 2 8 2 9 A K 9 8 Q J 4 7 3 A J 10 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 1188. K Q 8 7 Q J 10 A K A Q 10 9 9 5 A K 9 6 3 8 7 2 K J 7 A J 10 6 2 8 7 4 2 J 3 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 1189. K J 5 K J 7 6 A K J K Q 4 10 8 7 6 2 A 10 4 3 2 8 2 10 A Q 9 Q 9 8 7 3 A J 9 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 1311. Q J 5 A K Q 7 2 A K Q 7 5 A K 9 7 2 10 6 4 2 A 8 3 9 10 8 6 J 9 8 7 3 K J J 10 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 1663. A 8 5 2 A J 8 K 7 A K J 7 J 10 9 7 6 Q 4 2 A 3 Q 10 4 K Q K 10 9 7 6 3 J 8 2 9 5 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 2562. Q J 9 5 2 K Q A K J A 9 7 K A J 9 8 7 6 4 7 3 10 5 4 A 10 8 7 6 10 3 2 8 2 K Q J 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 2748. K J 10 A J 8 A J 8 7 K Q J A 9 7 9 7 6 3 K 3 2 A 10 9 Q 8 6 5 2 K Q 10 4 2 — 7 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 2790. Q J 2 K Q 10 6 A K 2 A Q 9 K 9 5 A 9 8 4 3 8 7 3 10 5 A 10 8 7 6 J 7 2 J K J 7 4 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3135. A Q 9 5 K 9 A K 2 K J 10 7 J 10 7 6 A Q J 10 4 J 7 3 5 K 8 2 8 7 6 3 2 8 A Q 9 4 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3383. A K 8 5 K J 7 A J 7 3 A 10 Q J 7 2 10 4 K 2 K Q 9 5 4 10 9 6 A Q 9 8 6 3 2 8 J 7 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3451. K Q J 10 A 10 8 A K J K 10 9 6 5 K Q J 6 4 3 2 8 7 2 J A 9 8 7 2 9 7 3 A Q 7 5 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3517. A Q 7 2 K J A K 8 K J 7 4 K 9 8 6 5 Q 6 4 3 7 3 2 10 J 10 A 10 9 8 7 2 J A Q 9 5 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 3629. Q 10 9 8 6 A K A K 3 K Q 9 A K 5 2 J 8 2 7 A J 10 5 4 J 7 Q 10 9 7 6 4 3 J 8 2 7 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 3968. Q J 9 5 2 A 8 4 A K A Q J K 10 8 J 9 3 J 8 2 K 7 5 4 A 7 6 K Q 10 7 6 2 7 3 10 9 2 NT N → 53 NT N → 55 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4194. K J 9 8 A 2 K 8 3 2 A K Q A 10 7 2 Q 10 8 4 A J 10 5 4 Q 6 5 K J 9 7 6 3 J 7 9 7 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4421. K Q 7 2 Q J 8 7 A K A Q 10 J 10 8 5 9 4 2 J 8 2 K J 4 A 9 6 A K 10 6 3 7 3 9 7 5 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4566. A J 2 K Q J K 7 K Q J 10 4 10 9 8 7 6 5 8 6 3 2 A 3 2 — K Q A 10 9 7 4 J 8 A 9 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4659. A K J 5 K J 2 J 2 A Q J 5 Q 6 2 Q 10 9 7 6 3 8 3 9 4 10 9 8 7 A 8 4 A K 7 K 10 7 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4671. A Q K J 3 2 A K 8 7 K 9 7 J 9 8 7 6 2 Q 8 6 4 J 3 J K 10 5 A 10 9 7 2 A Q 10 5 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4690. A K 7 2 K Q J A K 8 10 9 5 Q J 10 9 8 6 5 9 7 7 A J 4 — A 10 8 6 4 3 2 J 3 2 K Q 7 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4848. A J 6 Q 8 6 A J 3 2 A K J K Q 10 8 2 A 3 2 K 8 Q 7 4 9 7 5 K J 10 9 7 4 7 10 9 5 2 NT N → 53 NT N → 55 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4888. K 10 2 A K J 9 A K 2 Q 10 7 J Q 10 8 7 4 3 2 J 7 3 A K A Q 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 J 9 5 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 4892. A Q J 10 K Q 7 6 A 8 A 5 4 K 9 7 5 8 J 7 3 2 K 10 9 7 8 6 2 A J 10 9 4 3 2 K Q J 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 4895. A K 10 6 5 A 10 A J 8 K Q 9 7 J 9 7 6 4 3 2 K 7 7 5 4 Q J 9 8 2 K Q 8 3 2 A J 10 2 NT N → 53 NT N → 55 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 5192. A K 8 K J 9 4 7 2 A K Q 4 J 2 A Q 10 A K J 8 3 J 9 5 Q 10 9 7 6 5 8 7 6 3 2 — 10 7 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 5644. A Q 8 6 A 10 8 4 A 2 A Q 5 K J 7 5 K J 9 3 8 3 K 7 4 10 9 2 Q 7 6 2 K J 7 J 10 9 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 5814. A Q 7 2 8 6 2 A K A Q J 10 J 9 5 K Q 10 9 4 3 8 7 K 5 K 10 8 6 A J 7 J 3 2 9 7 4 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 5856. Q 10 2 A K Q 10 A K J Q 7 5 K J 8 7 J 7 6 4 3 A J 9 4 A 9 6 5 9 8 3 2 8 7 2 K 10 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 6279. K Q 8 A K J A K 3 J 10 7 5 10 2 Q 10 9 8 6 4 J 7 2 Q 9 A J 9 7 6 5 7 3 2 8 A K 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 6320. K Q A 9 7 K 8 3 2 A K J 4 A J 9 8 7 2 J 6 3 J 7 Q 9 10 6 5 K Q 10 8 4 2 A 10 7 5 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7239. A 7 6 A Q 9 7 4 A K A 5 4 Q J 5 2 K 10 3 J 2 K J 10 9 K 10 9 8 J 8 6 2 8 7 3 Q 7 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7245. A K J 9 7 Q 10 4 K J A Q 10 10 8 2 A 9 A 8 7 3 K J 9 4 Q 6 5 K J 8 7 6 3 2 2 7 5 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7274. A Q 5 A Q 2 K J 7 K J 9 7 J 10 7 6 K 9 8 7 4 3 8 2 5 K 9 8 2 J 10 6 A 3 A Q 10 4 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 7457. K Q 8 K J 10 7 A K J Q J 9 A 10 6 5 A 9 4 3 8 3 2 10 5 J 9 7 2 Q 8 6 2 7 A K 7 4 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7607. K J 7 A K Q 4 A 8 7 K 7 4 Q 10 9 5 2 10 7 3 J 3 Q 9 5 A 8 6 J 9 8 6 2 K 2 A J 10 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7762. Q 9 7 6 K Q A K J 2 A Q 4 K 10 8 A J 9 8 6 4 3 7 J 10 A J 5 2 10 7 2 8 3 K 9 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 7828. A K 7 J 8 A K 3 K Q 9 7 4 Q 8 6 5 Q 10 3 2 J 7 2 A 5 J 10 9 2 A K 9 7 6 4 8 J 10 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8146. A Q J 10 K 9 7 K J 7 A Q 10 9 7 5 2 Q J 8 6 4 3 3 2 4 K 8 6 A 10 2 A 8 K J 9 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8229. A K J 10 A 8 7 4 K 8 K Q 7 7 6 5 2 Q 9 2 7 3 2 A 10 9 Q 9 8 K J 10 6 3 A J J 5 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8246. A K 7 K 9 4 2 A K K J 7 4 J 10 8 6 5 Q 10 7 7 2 A Q 5 Q 9 2 A J 8 6 3 J 8 3 10 9 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8503. A K Q J A 7 6 A J 7 2 Q 9 8 2 K 10 9 4 2 K 8 J 10 5 4 10 9 7 6 5 Q J 8 3 3 A K 7 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8577. A K Q K J 9 8 A 8 K 10 7 5 10 6 5 2 A Q 10 K 7 2 J 9 4 J 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 J 3 A Q 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 8731. Q J 9 8 7 A K A K 7 K 9 7 K 5 2 Q J 8 6 3 2 8 Q 10 4 A 10 6 10 9 7 4 J 3 2 A J 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 8787. K Q 10 A Q 2 A K 7 Q 9 7 5 9 8 6 5 2 K 7 6 4 3 8 2 J A J 7 J 10 9 8 J 3 A K 10 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9125. A Q 10 A Q J 7 K J 2 Q J 4 J 8 7 5 K 8 6 4 3 7 3 10 9 K 9 6 2 10 9 2 A 8 A K 7 5 2 NT N → 103 NT N → 105 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9284. A K Q A K Q J 10 J 2 J 9 4 J 10 9 6 5 7 6 4 2 A 8 3 10 8 7 2 9 8 3 K 7 A K Q 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9336. K 2 A J 4 3 A J 8 A Q J 4 J 9 7 6 5 K Q 9 7 6 7 3 2 — A Q 10 8 10 8 2 K K 10 9 7 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9355. K 2 A Q 7 A K 2 K J 10 9 7 J 9 8 6 5 K J 8 6 2 J 3 4 A Q 10 7 10 9 4 3 8 7 A Q 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9393. K 10 6 A J 9 4 A K 8 K Q 7 J 7 5 2 K 10 8 6 3 2 7 2 4 A Q 9 8 Q 7 J 3 A J 10 9 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9425. Q 10 8 6 A K A K 7 A J 10 9 A J 7 Q 10 2 J 3 K Q 7 5 4 K 9 5 2 J 9 8 7 6 4 3 8 2 — 2 NT N → 103 NT N → 105 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9470. 9 5 A K Q 7 A K 2 A J 10 7 Q 10 8 6 10 6 4 8 K Q 9 5 4 A K J 7 2 J 9 8 3 2 J 7 3 — 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 7 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9725. A J 6 K Q 9 4 A K 3 K J 7 K Q 10 5 2 A 7 6 3 2 J 7 10 9 8 7 J 10 8 8 2 A Q 9 5 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9911. K J 9 8 6 K Q 6 K J A K 10 10 2 A J 8 3 2 8 7 3 2 J 9 A Q 7 5 10 9 7 4 A Q 7 5 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 9981. A K Q 9 6 8 7 6 A 8 2 A K 10 8 7 5 A J 10 4 K J 3 Q 7 J 2 K Q 9 3 2 7 J 10 9 5 4 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9982. Q 8 7 A K 10 K J 8 2 A K J A 6 Q J 9 7 4 3 2 7 Q 9 5 K J 10 9 5 2 8 6 A 3 10 7 4 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9983. K Q 5 2 Q J 6 A K 3 K Q 10 A J 10 9 7 K 9 8 J A 9 7 4 8 6 A 10 7 4 3 2 8 7 2 J 5 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9984. A 8 7 Q J 7 3 A K 8 A Q 9 9 5 K 10 9 8 4 J 2 K 7 5 4 K Q J 10 6 2 A 6 2 7 3 J 10 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9985. A 8 5 A 7 3 A K J 8 3 K Q Q 10 2 K 9 8 6 4 2 2 9 5 4 K J 9 7 6 Q J 10 7 A J 10 7 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9986. K 7 A Q J 8 7 A J 2 A Q 9 A J 2 K 10 9 2 7 3 J 7 5 4 Q 10 9 8 6 5 6 4 3 K 8 K 10 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9987. A J 2 J 10 2 A 3 A K Q J 7 Q 10 8 5 8 7 6 3 K J 7 9 5 K 9 7 6 A K Q 9 4 8 2 10 4 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9988. A J 2 A K Q K J 3 2 Q 9 7 9 8 7 5 9 7 4 3 2 8 K J 4 K Q 10 6 J 10 8 6 A 7 A 10 5 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9989. A K Q 5 A 8 7 3 A K 9 7 5 10 8 7 10 9 2 8 7 A Q J 10 4 J 9 6 2 K Q J 6 4 J 3 2 K 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9990. A K 6 2 K Q J 9 A 7 Q J 4 J 10 7 5 A 8 7 6 J 8 2 9 5 Q 9 8 10 4 3 2 K 3 A K 10 7 2 NT N → 63 NT N → 65 S → 8 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

 9991. A Q A Q 8 6 2 K J 3 A 5 4 K 5 2 K 10 9 4 3 8 7 K Q 9 J 10 9 8 7 6 J 7 A 2 J 10 7 2 NT N → 103 NT N → 105 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9992. A K 10 9 A K 9 K 8 7 K 9 7 5 J 10 7 6 4 2 J 3 2 A Q 5 Q J 8 7 6 2 Q 8 3 A J 10 4 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9993. A Q J 9 2 A 9 3 A K 8 Q 9 10 8 5 K 7 4 J 7 2 A 10 7 4 K 7 6 Q J 10 8 6 2 3 K J 5 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9994. A J K J 7 6 K 8 3 A K Q 7 Q 10 7 5 10 9 4 A J 7 10 9 4 K 9 8 6 2 A Q 8 3 2 2 J 5 2 NT N → 53 NT N → 55 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9995. Q 7 6 5 2 K Q K J 3 A K Q A K J 9 8 J 9 A 8 2 J 9 4 10 A 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 7 10 7 5 2 NT N → 43 NT N → 45 S → 9 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9996. K 9 K J 9 A K J 3 K Q J 9 A Q 5 2 A 10 7 4 3 2 7 5 4 J 10 8 7 6 Q 8 6 2 8 7 A 10 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9997. A K J 10 K 6 4 2 A 7 2 K Q Q 8 7 5 A Q 7 3 8 3 7 5 4 9 6 2 J 10 9 8 K J A J 10 9 2 NT N → 83 NT N → 85 S → 10 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9998. A K 2 A Q 8 7 2 K 3 A 5 4 Q 6 5 J 6 4 3 7 2 K Q 10 7 J 10 9 8 7 K 10 9 A J 8 J 9 2 NT N → 73 NT N → 75 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 9999. A J 5 A K Q 8 6 K 8 7 A 7 K 10 8 7 9 7 4 3 2 Q 10 5 4 Q 9 6 2 J 10 3 2 A J K J 9 2 NT N → 93 NT N → 95 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 10000. K 7 K 10 8 7 A K 8 A K J 5 A Q J 9 8 2 Q J 2 J 2 Q 9 10 6 5 A 9 6 4 3 7 3 10 7 4 2 NT N → 103 NT N → 105 S → 11 4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

 Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?