Simulation 8Z22 Main

Spades or Longer Fit?

by Richard Pavlicek

Herbert Wilton of Fredericksburg, Texas, asked about the black two-suiter below, or more specifically, what is the best bidding strategy after a 1 opening on your right.

West

North

East 1

South ?

Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

As I see it, there are two reasonable options for South: (A) Jump directly to 4 ; or (B) plan to show both suits, expecting to play 4 or 5 according to partner’s better fit (or 4 with equal length or 3+ spades).

Option A has a number of pros: simplicity, preemption, 10-trick game (vs. 11), higher scoring strain, and a good-textured suit that might survive without a fit. In the last case, however, it has one glaring con: Enemy taps could force you out of trump control, inflicting a severe set when clubs would fare much better. So which strategy is better? Stay tuned to find out.

In order to level the playing field regarding preemption, Option B will employ one of my pet conventions: super Michaels, by which a jump to 4 (over 1 ) shows a pronounced two-suiter with spades and a minor. Partner will bid 4 with 3+ spades, or with an equal number of spades as his shorter minor. For example, with x-x K-x-x-x-x Q-x-x-x J-x, partner would bid 4 because your minor is probably clubs; though with x-x K-x-x-x Q-x-x-x J-x-x, he would bid 5 (pass or correct) because a better fit is assured. Further, with extremely short black suits partner might bid a long, self-sufficient diamond suit, which he would not have done over 4 .

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the South hand fixed. East: 13-22 total points; 5+ hearts (unsuitable for 1 NT or 2 NT); no longer suit or equal spade length; at most 9 playing tricks. No constraints were placed on West and North (no turn yet).

When South chooses Option B, North will be declarer in 4 or 5 (rarely 5 ) as determined by computer based on the logic described above. To simplify the comparison, I will ignore possibilities of slam and further enemy competition, as these might occur after either option and would tend to balance out.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Percent shows how often the contract is made (including with overtrick) and Overtrick Percent how often an overtrick is made. The second table compares the options directly, with the better option leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

Results clearly show that offering both suits is the winner, a huge advantage at IMPs (especially vulnerable) but lesser at matchpoints. In practice I think the IMP edge would be greater, because the contract will sometimes be doubled, whence playing 4 opposite a stiff or void with a great club fit could be costly.

Jim Munday of Albuquerque, New Mexico, wrote, “Two practical issues favor Option A: (1) No information leak as to South’s shape, which might aid South in the play of 4 , or not aid East-West should they end up declaring. (2) Prevents East from making a 4 cue-bid (as he could over 4 ) or a non-committal double.”

Certainly valid points. While difficult to quantify, they might narrow the gap. In rebuttal, Option B is more likely to have partner do the right thing in competition, or to reach a successful slam. Who knows which factors are more dominant, but I think any impact will be small.

Results for 10,000 Deals

Option	Trick Average	Make Percent	Overtrick Percent
A. 4 S	9.2078	50.42	27.69
B. ?? N	9.7871	52.32	27.01

Comparison	Net W-L	NV Net Score	NV Net IMPs	Vul Net Score	Vul Net IMPs
B. ?? N vs. A. 4 S	+429	+163,160	+3701	+316,210	+5742

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (30 for each option). Numbers after each contract show the tricks won by declarer with double-dummy play all-around.

1.	K 6 A K 7 3 K Q J 10 6 J 9
9 3 J 8 2 A 9 8 4 3 8 7 5		A 4 2 Q 10 9 6 5 4 7 5 A 10
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

2.	K 9 6 J 9 8 5 3 K Q 10 8 5
4 2 A 10 4 A J 9 4 3 J 9 7		A 3 K Q 7 6 2 8 7 6 5 A 10
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

3.	K 2 Q J 10 9 5 K Q 8 A J 9
4 A 3 2 10 9 7 5 4 3 10 7 5		A 9 6 3 K 8 7 6 4 A J 6 8
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4.	A 9 4 10 4 2 K Q 7 4 J 9 8
3 2 A 9 8 7 6 J 9 8 5 10 7		K 6 K Q J 5 3 A 10 6 3 A 5
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5.	K 3 2 K 5 K J 9 7 6 3 10 7
A 9 6 4 A J 9 Q 5 4 J 9 8		— Q 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 A 10 8 A 5
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6.	A 9 6 Q J 10 4 A 10 9 7 3 9
3 8 6 3 2 J 6 4 A J 10 7 5		K 4 2 A K 9 7 5 K Q 8 5 8
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

7.	9 3 2 10 7 6 5 A J 10 9 7 5
A K Q 9 3 2 K 9 8 6 4 3 J		6 4 A K J 8 4 Q 7 5 A 10 8
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

8.	9 6 2 K 10 6 A Q J 10 3 9 8
A 4 9 7 2 8 7 6 4 A J 10 7		K 3 A Q J 8 5 4 3 K 9 5 5
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9.	9 3 9 8 3 J 9 6 A J 8 7 5
A 6 2 A Q J 7 2 K Q 10 4 9		K 4 K 10 6 5 4 A 8 7 5 3 10
4 S → 10 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

10.	A 9 Q 6 4 3 2 A 8 6 5 3 9
K 4 3 9 7 5 10 7 A J 10 8 7		6 2 A K J 10 8 K Q J 9 4 5
4 S → 7 4 N → 7	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

11.	— K Q 10 9 5 2 A J 10 9 4 10 7
6 4 3 J 3 Q 8 6 5 3 J 9 5		A K 9 2 A 8 7 6 4 K 7 A 8
4 S → 9 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

12.	9 6 4 3 10 9 5 2 Q 7 4 3 J
2 K 8 6 4 K 10 8 6 5 A 10 5		A K A Q J 7 3 A J 9 9 8 7
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

13.	A 4 3 Q 8 6 5 4 Q 10 A J 8
9 6 K 9 2 A J 8 6 5 4 10 5		K 2 A J 10 7 3 K 9 7 3 9 7
4 S → 11 4 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

14.	K 9 4 3 2 A J 6 4 8 6 4 8
A K 10 5 2 A 10 9 7 J 9 7 5		6 Q 9 8 7 3 K Q J 5 3 A 10
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

15.	K 9 6 — A Q 7 5 3 J 10 8 7 5
A 4 2 Q 8 7 4 3 2 K 10 9 A		3 A K J 10 9 6 5 J 8 6 4 9
4 S → 11 4 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

16.	A 2 8 6 5 4 3 8 7 A J 10 7
K 6 4 3 A 10 K Q J 9 3 9 5		9 K Q J 9 7 2 A 10 6 5 4 8
4 S → 11 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

17.	4 2 K Q J 10 5 3 A 10 6 5 9
K 6 8 2 K Q 9 7 4 3 J 7 5		A 9 3 A 9 7 6 4 J 8 A 10 8
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

18.	A 9 6 J 9 7 3 2 K 10 3 J 10
3 2 K 10 6 J 9 6 5 A 9 8 7		K 4 A Q 8 5 4 A Q 8 7 4 5
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

19.	A K J 4 3 A J 5 4 3 10 7 5
9 4 3 2 Q 9 8 K Q 9 8 6 J		K 6 A 10 7 6 5 2 10 7 A 9 8
4 S → 9 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

20.	3 2 A K Q 4 Q 9 5 4 3 8 7
A K 9 6 4 7 5 8 7 6 J 10 5		— J 10 9 8 6 3 2 A K J 10 A 9
4 S → 7 4 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

29.	— J 9 8 7 2 10 7 4 3 A 9 7 5
A 9 6 4 3 6 4 3 A K 8 5 J		K 2 A K Q 10 5 Q J 9 6 10 8
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

293.	6 J 9 8 6 K Q J 9 7 6 3 A
4 3 2 Q 7 4 3 A 5 4 J 9 5		A K 9 A K 10 5 2 10 8 10 8 7
4 S → 10 5 N → 7	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

578.	2 8 6 4 2 10 7 5 A 10 8 7 5
K 3 A 9 7 3 A Q 9 8 6 4 3 —		A 9 6 4 K Q J 10 5 K J J 9
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

615.	K 4 J 10 4 K 10 6 5 3 A 8 7
A 9 6 2 8 6 5 3 Q 9 8 J 10		3 A K Q 9 7 2 A J 7 4 9 5
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

812.	K 2 A K 9 2 Q 6 5 3 A J 5
A 9 6 3 J 5 4 3 10 9 4 9 7		4 Q 10 8 7 6 A K J 8 7 10 8
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

849.	4 2 K Q 10 7 6 3 A J 10 8 5
A K 9 6 3 2 Q 10 9 5 4 J 4 —		— A K J 8 7 6 3 A 9 8 5 9 7
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1098.	A 6 J 8 7 4 3 K Q 4 J 10 9
9 4 3 2 A 10 5 A J 10 3 8 7		K K Q 9 6 2 9 8 7 6 5 A 5
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1177.	— J 10 6 Q 10 8 6 5 4 A 10 8 7
9 6 3 A 8 4 A K 9 7 3 J 5		A K 4 2 K Q 9 7 5 3 2 J 9
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1329.	4 K 7 4 2 J 7 5 A J 10 9 5
A K 9 6 3 10 8 K Q 10 9 6 7		2 A Q J 9 6 5 3 A 8 4 3 8
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1365.	A 2 7 6 5 4 3 J 9 3 10 8 7
4 3 A 8 2 A K Q 10 7 6 J 9		K 9 6 K Q J 10 9 8 5 4 A 5
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

1667.	— J 9 5 2 Q J 3 A J 9 8 7 5
K 9 6 2 A Q 4 K 9 7 6 5 10		A 4 3 K 10 8 7 6 3 A 10 8 4 —
4 S → 4 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1743.	— Q 10 4 Q 9 8 7 5 4 A J 9 8
K 6 4 3 J 9 8 6 3 K J 10 10		A 9 2 A K 7 5 2 A 6 3 7 5
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1845.	— Q 10 7 4 10 8 7 6 3 A 10 9 7
A K 9 3 K 6 2 K J 5 4 J 5		6 4 2 A J 9 8 5 3 A Q 9 8
4 S → 5 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1851.	2 9 3 K J 8 7 A J 10 8 7 5
A K 9 6 3 K Q 10 7 10 6 5 4 —		4 A J 8 6 5 4 2 A Q 9 3 9
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

1962.	9 6 Q 9 7 2 A Q 6 3 9 7 5
K 4 3 A 8 5 J 10 9 7 4 A 8		A 2 K J 10 6 4 3 K 8 5 J 10
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

2730.	K K Q 6 A K Q 8 7 6 5 4 7
4 2 9 7 5 2 J 10 3 J 10 8 5		A 9 6 3 A J 10 8 4 3 9 A 9
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

2823.	9 6 J 7 5 2 10 8 7 3 A 8 5
4 3 2 Q 8 A Q 9 6 5 J 10 7		A K A K 10 9 6 4 3 K J 4 9
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

2961.	— Q J 2 J 10 8 5 4 3 J 9 8 5
A K 3 2 9 7 5 3 A K 7 6 10		9 6 4 A K 10 8 6 4 Q 9 A 7
4 S → 4 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

3256.	K 4 K 6 Q J 8 7 4 A J 9 8
A 9 6 2 A 9 8 4 2 10 5 3 10		3 Q J 10 7 5 3 A K 9 6 7 5
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

3464.	A 7 6 2 K J 10 8 7 6 3 A 9
K 6 3 J 4 3 Q 9 5 J 10 7 5		9 4 2 A K Q 10 9 8 5 A 4 8
4 S → 10 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

3561.	K Q 7 6 5 A K Q 7 6 3 8 7
A 6 4 J 8 2 J 10 9 J 10 9 5		9 3 2 A K 10 9 4 3 8 5 4 A
4 S → 10 5 N → 6	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

3777.	6 K Q 10 9 7 3 A J 10 8 7 5
A K 9 3 10 9 8 6 4 3 A 5 9		4 2 A Q J 7 5 2 K J 8 6 4 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

3949.	6 7 6 3 2 9 6 3 A 10 8 7 5
9 4 A Q 9 4 K Q J 7 4 J 9		A K 3 2 K J 10 8 5 A 10 8 5 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4103.	A K 9 5 4 A Q 9 8 6 5 3 7
9 6 4 Q 8 2 K J 10 4 J 8 5		K 3 2 A J 10 7 6 3 7 A 10 9
4 S → 10 5 N → 6	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4152.	K 2 Q 10 7 K 8 7 5 A 10 8 5
A 6 4 3 6 3 2 Q J 10 6 J 7		9 A K J 9 8 5 4 A 9 4 3 9
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4306.	— J 9 7 4 2 9 6 4 J 9 8 7 5
A K 9 4 2 6 K Q 10 8 3 A 10		6 3 A K Q 10 8 5 3 A J 7 5 —
4 S → 4 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4314.	K 6 A Q 9 8 7 4 K 6 A 10 9
9 5 3 Q J 10 9 8 7 5 8 7 5		A 4 3 2 K J 10 6 2 A 4 3 J
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4712.	— J 9 7 5 3 K J 9 6 J 9 7 5
A K 6 2 Q 8 Q 8 7 5 4 3 A		9 4 3 A K 10 6 4 2 A 10 10 8
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

4921.	9 2 A 10 4 A Q 7 6 4 9 8 5
K 6 3 9 8 6 3 2 J 8 3 A J		A 4 K Q J 7 5 K 10 9 5 10 7
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5131.	— 10 4 K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 —
K 9 A K 8 6 2 A 10 9 8 7 5		A 6 4 3 2 Q J 9 7 5 3 — A J
4 S → 4 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

5151.	A 4 Q 5 4 Q J 10 5 3 8 7 5
6 3 2 10 7 A K 9 8 7 6 A 10		K 9 A K J 9 8 6 3 2 4 J 9
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5168.	6 8 7 6 3 A 5 J 10 9 8 7 5
9 3 Q J 9 5 Q J 10 9 8 3 A		A K 4 2 A K 10 4 2 K 7 6 4 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5209.	9 J 9 6 2 8 7 4 3 A J 7 5
A K 4 3 8 7 4 3 K Q J 10 10		6 2 A K Q 10 5 A 9 6 5 9 8
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5366.	K 6 Q 9 7 2 K 7 6 3 A J 7
A 9 3 2 A 10 6 Q 9 5 9 8 5		4 K J 8 5 4 3 A J 10 8 4 10
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5786.	2 10 6 3 10 9 4 3 A 10 9 8 7
A K 6 4 J 9 8 7 5 A Q 8 7 —		9 3 A K Q 4 2 K J 6 5 J 5
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

5961.	— 7 5 4 K Q J 9 8 7 10 9 8 7
K 6 3 K 10 9 8 3 A 10 6 3 J		A 9 4 2 A Q J 6 2 5 4 A 5
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6066.	— 10 9 7 6 J 9 4 3 A 10 8 7 5
A 3 2 K J 8 5 A K 10 6 5 J		K 9 6 4 A Q 4 3 2 Q 8 7 9
4 S → 5 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6553.	— Q 8 A J 10 8 7 3 A 10 8 7 5
A K 9 6 4 10 7 5 3 2 9 J 9		3 2 A K J 9 6 4 K Q 6 5 4 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 13	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6648.	A 2 9 7 4 3 10 7 4 3 9 8 5
9 4 A K Q 6 A Q 9 8 6 10 7		K 6 3 J 10 8 5 2 K J 5 A J
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6697.	— A 6 3 J 7 5 4 3 J 9 8 7 5
K 9 6 2 Q 10 8 4 2 K Q 6 10		A 4 3 K J 9 7 5 A 10 9 8 A
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

6712.	— 7 3 Q 10 9 7 6 4 3 A 10 8 5
A 9 4 3 A Q 10 8 6 4 8 9 7		K 6 2 K J 9 5 2 A K J 5 J
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6863.	2 J 10 8 6 A Q J 10 5 3 A 8
A 6 3 7 4 2 K 9 6 4 J 9 5		K 9 4 A K Q 9 5 3 8 7 10 7
4 S → 10 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

6933.	K 2 Q 9 4 2 10 5 4 3 A 10 7
A 9 6 3 J 6 5 K J 8 7 8 5		4 A K 10 8 7 3 A Q 9 6 J 9
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

7051.	9 J 9 3 2 9 4 3 A 10 9 8 7
6 3 K Q 7 5 Q J 10 8 6 J 5		A K 4 2 A 10 8 6 4 A K 7 5 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

7266.	— J 9 2 Q 8 7 5 4 J 10 9 8 5
A K 6 2 K 8 6 4 3 A K 9 6 —		9 4 3 A Q 10 7 5 J 10 3 A 7
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

7735.	K 2 K J 9 3 A K 6 5 10 9 7
3 Q 10 8 2 Q J 10 9 8 4 8 5		A 9 6 4 A 7 6 5 4 7 3 A J
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

8168.	K 6 Q 10 5 2 J 9 8 7 A J 7
A 9 3 2 J 7 4 K 6 5 4 8 5		4 A K 9 8 6 3 A Q 10 3 10 9
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

8635.	— Q 2 J 9 7 5 3 J 10 9 8 7 5
K 4 2 A 7 6 5 4 K 10 8 6 4 —		A 9 6 3 K J 10 9 8 3 A Q A
4 S → 4 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

8641.	A J 9 4 K 7 5 4 3 10 8 7 5
K 9 3 2 7 6 5 3 2 Q 10 8 A		6 4 A K Q 10 8 A J 9 6 J 9
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

8885.	K 3 K 10 8 3 10 9 6 4 9 7 5
A 4 2 Q 6 5 K 8 7 5 3 A 10		9 6 A J 9 7 4 2 A Q J J 8
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

9121.	K A 7 6 3 2 K Q J 8 6 3 A
9 6 4 3 K J 9 9 7 4 8 7 5		A 2 Q 10 8 5 4 A 10 5 J 10 9
4 S → 11 5 N → 7	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9163.	2 9 5 4 2 Q 10 5 A J 10 8 7
6 4 Q J 6 A J 9 7 6 4 9 5		A K 9 3 A K 10 8 7 3 K 8 3 —
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9249.	6 10 4 8 7 6 4 3 A 10 9 8 5
A K 9 4 3 A 9 8 6 K 9 5 J		2 K Q J 7 5 3 2 A Q J 10 7
4 S → 5 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9288.	A Q 9 7 4 A K Q 9 8 7 9 5
9 6 2 10 8 5 10 6 5 3 J 8 7		K 4 3 A K J 6 3 2 J 4 A 10
4 S → 11 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9550.	— J 8 6 5 9 8 7 5 A J 9 8 5
6 3 2 A K 10 7 A J 10 6 4 7		A K 9 4 Q 9 4 3 2 K Q 3 10
4 S → 5 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9714.	A K 9 2 A Q 10 8 6 5 4 J 9
9 4 3 2 Q 7 3 K J 10 8 7 5		K 6 A J 10 8 6 5 4 9 7 3 A
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9732.	A K 10 8 7 4 A K J 7 6 5 J
K 9 6 9 6 Q 9 8 4 10 8 7 5		4 3 2 A Q J 5 3 2 10 3 A 9
4 S → 10 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9921.	K 9 Q 10 6 K Q 6 4 3 9 8 7
6 4 3 2 J 8 5 4 3 J 7 A 10		A A K 9 7 2 A 10 9 8 5 J 5
4 S → 10 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9937.	A A 7 6 5 4 2 A K 10 9 10 5
4 3 10 8 Q J 7 6 4 3 J 9 8		K 9 6 2 K Q J 9 3 8 5 A 7
4 S → 11 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9954.	K 9 A 9 K J 10 6 4 3 10 7 5
4 K J 8 4 3 Q 9 8 7 J 9 8		A 6 3 2 Q 10 7 6 5 2 A 5 A
4 S → 10 5 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

9981.	6 3 5 2 A K 6 4 3 A J 10 8
9 4 K Q 10 9 6 4 J 10 8 7 9		A K 2 A J 8 7 3 Q 9 5 7 5
4 S → 10 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9982.	K 6 3 K Q J 8 6 4 K 8 4 9
9 2 3 2 J 10 7 3 A J 10 7 5		A 4 A 10 9 7 5 A Q 9 6 5 8
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9983.	9 6 2 A 4 A K J 9 4 3 8 7
3 Q J 9 5 10 8 7 6 5 A J 10		A K 4 K 10 8 7 6 3 2 Q 9 5
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9984.	A 4 2 K 7 5 3 A 8 6 5 J 10
K 9 8 2 K 10 9 7 4 9 8 7 5		9 6 3 A Q J 10 6 4 Q J 3 A
4 S → 12 4 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9985.	6 4 2 A Q 7 6 A 8 7 5 4 7
A K J 9 8 3 Q 9 6 3 J 8 5		9 3 K 10 5 4 2 K J 10 A 10 9
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9986.	A 9 9 4 J 10 7 3 A 9 8 7 5
K 3 A J 10 5 3 2 Q 9 8 4 J		6 4 2 K Q 8 7 6 A K 6 5 10
4 S → 12 5 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9987.	9 3 2 J 7 3 Q 8 6 A 9 7 5
— A K 9 6 4 K 10 9 7 5 3 J 10		A K 6 4 Q 10 8 5 2 A J 4 8
4 S → 8 4 N → 8	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9988.	9 3 2 A 9 8 7 Q 8 6 3 7 5
K 4 J 10 6 2 10 7 5 4 A J 9		A 6 K Q 5 4 3 A K J 9 10 8
4 S → 9 4 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9989.	6 4 K 9 4 K 10 7 6 5 3 J 7
9 J 8 6 3 2 A Q 8 A 10 8 5		A K 3 2 A Q 10 7 5 J 9 4 9
4 S → 6 4 N → 7	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9990.	2 K 9 7 6 4 2 A 9 6 5 3 8
9 6 3 J 3 J 10 8 7 A J 10 7		A K 4 A Q 10 8 5 K Q 4 9 5
4 S → 6 4 N → 6	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

9991.	2 J 7 3 2 A J 5 4 9 8 7 5
A 9 6 4 3 10 9 5 K 10 9 8 7 —		K A K Q 8 6 4 Q 6 3 A J 10
4 S → 5 5 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9992.	K 4 3 Q J 10 6 A 9 7 4 3 7
A 2 8 5 3 2 K Q J 10 6 5 9		9 6 A K 9 7 4 8 A J 10 8 5
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9993.	A 9 4 3 2 J 3 2 10 6 10 9 7
6 A K 10 8 6 A Q J 9 5 4 3 —		K Q 9 7 5 4 K 8 7 A J 8 5
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9994.	A 6 J 10 9 6 3 A Q 10 6 A 10
K 9 4 2 8 4 J 9 7 4 3 J 7		3 A K Q 7 5 2 K 8 5 9 8 5
4 S → 12 4 N → 12	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9995.	6 4 2 Q 10 8 7 2 K Q 6 A 9
A 9 A J 4 9 8 7 5 3 10 8 5		K 3 K 9 6 5 3 A J 10 4 J 7
4 S → 10 4 N → 10	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9996.	K 6 J 10 6 2 K 10 5 3 10 8 7
A 4 3 8 7 5 A 8 7 6 4 9 5		9 2 A K Q 9 4 3 Q J 9 A J
4 S → 10 5 N → 9	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9997.	A 2 J 8 7 6 4 2 A 10 7 7 5
6 4 3 K Q K J 9 8 5 4 J 10		K 9 A 10 9 5 3 Q 6 3 A 9 8
4 S → 10 4 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9998.	— Q 10 9 7 6 J 10 J 10 9 8 7 5
A 9 3 2 A K 8 K Q 8 7 5 3 —		K 6 4 J 5 4 3 2 A 9 6 4 A
4 S → 4 5 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

9999.	4 3 2 4 Q J 9 8 5 4 3 10 9
A K 6 10 8 7 5 3 2 K 7 6 J		9 A K Q J 9 6 A 10 A 8 7 5
4 S → 7 4 N → 7	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

10000.	K 9 6 4 3 K 3 A J 9 6 5 9
2 A J 8 5 2 10 4 3 A J 8 5		A Q 10 9 7 6 4 K Q 8 7 10 7
4 S → 11 4 N → 11	Q J 10 8 7 5 — 2 K Q 6 4 3 2

Simulation 8Z22 Main

Top Spades or Longer Fit?

© 2019 Richard Pavlicek