Analyses 8Y64 MainChallenge


Shadow of a Doubt


Scores by Richard Pavlicek

These six problems were published on the Internet in August 2007 as a contest open to all bridge players. As West, your opening lead wins the first trick, and you had to choose your next lead from the choices offered.

Problem 123456Final Notes

“Good evening. I am pleased to inform you that the perpetrator of these problems has been indicted. Mr. Pavlicek may have fooled the local police, but when questioned by the FBI, a scrap piece of paper fell out of his wallet. Scribbled there were six hand diagrams that matched these deals. This alone was not proof, but forensic tests show the ink had dried in June, giving prosecutors an air-tight case. Trial is set to begin October 15, and bond has been set at $6 million.”

Nice try, Hitch, but can you say “Peanuts for PavCo?” I posted that bail on pocket change, then headed for the Amtrak station. (Only retards fly these days with all the security checks.) After six days on the rails and five train changes, I’m now in Paraguay, which may soon become Pavaguay if President Frutos accepts my $10 billion offer. Oh, and about the trial… What trial was that, Hitch? Good luck with extradition!

To my participants: Due to the present situation I will be working from Asuncion to prepare the remaining contests. I feel safe here, as the U.S. has no extradition treaty with Paraguay.

Barry Rigal Wins!

This contest had 725 participants from 108 locations, and the average score was 43.28. Congratulations to Barry Rigal (New York), who was the first of two to submit perfect scores. Barry is well-known to most players through his many books and articles. I’m delighted he enters these contests (since October 2000) and he’d probably win more often, save his tendency to answer quickly. Also scoring 60 was Rob Stevens (California). Close behind at 59 were Ding-Hwa Hsieh (Missouri), Wuping Lu (China), Jordi Sabate (Spain), Wojtek Urban (Poland), John Lusky (Oregon), Jim Munday (California) and Joon Pahk (Massachusetts).

When I relayed the good news to Barry Rigal, he booked a flight to Florida (oops, Paraguay) to claim the top prize, an oak tree branch signed by Alfred Hitchcock… well, actually I carved ‘AH’ into a palm frond, but close enough for PavCo Scams. Alas, nobody wanted the Cotten balls in formaldehyde, which I offered down to 12th place. Too bad; it was the actor’s Last Will and Testicle.

Could attendance be on the rise? Last month’s low of 690 was depressing, and 35 more is hardly a windfall but may be just throwing me another bean before the nuclear fallout in October. I wouldn’t show up in October either, but Fritz has threatened to blackmail me, so I do what I have to do.

The average score (43.28) was the highest ever (since October 2000) which may be because the hoi polloi have departed. Seriously, the average is also affected by problem difficulty and my scoring decisions, though I try to keep an even keel. A total of 364 persons scored above average (44+) to make the listing. Consensus score was 48, curiously taking second place on each problem. Two problems were close, and Problem 4 was a judgmental photo that I called as I saw it — or more appropriately, the top award is not beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Overall standings count your best four scores in the last six contests (March through August). Retaining the top spot is Ding-Hwa Hsieh (Missouri), increasing her remarkable average to 59.75. Only half a point back with 59.25 are Darek Kardas (Poland), John Lusky (Oregon) and Lajos Linczmayer (Hungary). Next with 58.75 is Carsten Kofoed (Sweden), then Rainer Herrmann (Germany) and Joanna Sliwowska (Poland), each with 58.50. Two ladies in the top seven is nice to see.

The form of scoring in this contest is rubber bridge, because Alfred Hitchcock’s cameo role* in Shadow of a Doubt was on a train playing rubber bridge, where he held a hand of 13 spades — alas, omitted from this contest with the defense to beat 7 S somewhat elusive. Strategy at rubber bridge is similar to IMPs but even less concern about overtricks. As a defender your only goal is to defeat the contract.

*In almost all his movies Hitchcock made a token appearance early on, which came to be his trademark and something his fans watch for closely.

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and you use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each defensive problem offered six plausible leads for West at trick two. The merit of each lead is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which may be influenced by comments received.

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 1

Rubber Bridge
E-W Vul
S K 10 6
H J 10 7 5 3
D K 4 2
C 4 2
You
West

3 D
Dummy
NORTH
Pass
3 H
Partner
East
2 D
All Pass
Declarer
South
2 H
S A Q 8 3 2
H 8 2
D J 10
C K 9 7 5
Table3 H South

Trick
1 W
Lead
D J
2nd
2
3rd
6
4th
7

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
S 31015221
D 10835249
H 27223
S A613118
S Q3314
C 51375

Before you routinely put the D 10 on the table, you should ask yourself how you might beat this. Four tricks are obvious: two diamonds (partner must have A-Q sixth), the S A and C K. Unless partner has an outside ace, the only chance for a fifth trick is in spades, which requires partner to have S J-x or a singleton. Consider a plausible deal:

Rubber BridgeS K 10 6TrickLead2nd3rd4th
E-W VulH J 10 7 5 31 WD J267
D K 4 22 WD 10?KA8
C 4 23 ED 9H QS 24
S A Q 8 3 2TableS J 74 SH A239
H 8 2H 95 SH 48JD 3
D J 10D A Q 9 6 5 36 NC 26JK
C K 9 7 5C Q 8 6 3Declarer succeeds
S 9 5 4
H A K Q 6 4
D 8 7
3 H SouthC A J 10

If you continue diamonds, partner will try to give you a trump promotion. You would surely defend this way with H Q-x, but H 8-2 is insignificant (even if partner held a blank honor, declarer would ruff with the H 9). Instead this gives declarer a picnic, as he is able to finesse clubs twice to avoid a second spade loser.

On a spade shift it’s a different story, as you can establish the setting trick before declarer can develop clubs. The only question is which spade. Superficially it seems right to cash the ace in case partner has a singleton, but this is flawed. Besides the unlikely chance of two singletons — and even then partner might overtake at Trick 1 to return his spade — South may have S J-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C Q-J-10-x* and take the spade finesse to rid his diamond loser. Ouch!

*This gives East S x-x-x H x D A-Q-9-x-x-x C A-x-x, which is not a one-bid in the default system (even including the C 10).

Therefore, first place goes to the S 3, after which declarer is history — and he’d better put up the king, else he’ll be down two. Curiously, the S 3 shift may even work when declarer has S J-x-x, as he is almost sure you have the ace, so he may hop with the king to block the suit when East has S Q-x.

Second place would seem to go to the S A, which works just as well in the diagram (assuming a continuation) but closer scrutiny shows otherwise. Leading spades is necessary only when (1) South has S x-x-x and C A-Q-J, A-Q-10 or A-J-10; else a passive defense is as good. In contrast, ace and another spade costs the contract when (2) South has S J-x and C Q-J-x-x. Case 1 has 4×3 = 12 holdings; Case 2 has 4×6 = 24. This must be adjusted, as Case 1 permits any five hearts to the ace (5×12 = 60); while Case 2 must be H A-K-Q-x-x (3×24 = 72). Hence there are more failing cases for the S A than successful ones.

Consequently, the runner-up must be a passive defense, which includes the D 10 and H 2. Declarer will either make or fail depending on the club layout and S J location. The overwhelming vote for the D 10 gives it second place. This means third place for the H 2, so the S A must settle for a close fourth.

[Addendum August 2016: An oversight in my original award scale overrated the S Q, and the present scale has been adjusted to fix it. Few if any competent participants chose this poor lead, so the change will not affect the Top 100 of any leaderboard. I won’t bother to rescore the original contest, so if you picked this lead, consider yourself lucky!]

A distant fifth goes to the S Q, which is much worse than the ace, because it may fail when partner has S J-x, the one holding you need most. Note in the diagram how it blocks the spade suit, allowing declarer to draw trumps and finesse clubs twice.

Last and surely worst is to lead a club. Not only does this have no possible advantage, but it gifts a trick when South has C A-Q. Recalling my theme, when the Merry Widow killer fell off the moving train, he had better chances than this lead.

While irrelevant to the problem, declarer probably erred by not playing the D K at Trick 1, as a spade shift by East is unlikely. I qualify it as ‘probably’ because there’s a lot of cat-and-mouse. East will wonder why declarer played the D K, and the obvious reason is that he doesn’t want a spade shift and is happy with a club or more diamonds. Hence it’s not as black-and-white as the filming of Shadow of a Doubt.

Comments for the S 3

Barry Rigal: We need a second spade trick before it goes on a club, e.g., if South has S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10.

Rob Stevens: To defeat this, South must be 3=5=2=3 without the S J. Leading the S Q blocks the suit; and S A and another [allows] declarer to finesse with 2=5=2=4 and the S J. A low spade preserves our options.

Wuping Lu: South may have S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-J.

Jordi Sabate: … The [main] possibility to make five tricks is to find partner with S J-x. …

John Lusky: This works if partner has S J-x or the C A. Other spade plays either risk losing our other diamond trick (if South has S J-x) or make it impossible to unscramble our spade tricks in time.

Jim Munday: I can see four tricks: two diamonds, one spade and one club. I need partner to hold an ace or the S J to have a chance, and a low spade caters to either case. Partner will not know to attack spades if I continue diamonds; so I must lead them myself. The S Q blocks the suit when partner has S J-x… The S A works when partner has S J-x; but I’m committed to continue regardless of partner’s card, which allows declarer to shake a diamond loser when holding S J-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C Q-J-10-x.

Joon Pahk: If partner has the C A, we’re beating this anyway. If he has the S J, I need to get spades going right away in case declarer has strong clubs.

Julian Wightwick: Hoping partner has S J-x. This switch is necessary if South has C A-Q-J, A-Q-10 [or A-J-10].

Charles Blair: I hope to see, once again, your cartoon of a blackboard, on which is written “Always lead fourth best.”

I aim to please, but a player of your caliber may choose the fourth-best club.

Steve White: Chances seem nearly impossible unless partner has S J-x, then we may score two spades, two diamonds, and a club. If partner had a stiff spade, he would have overtaken and shifted. If partner somehow has the C A instead, we’ll still get five tricks.

Leonard Helfgott: … Partner [probably] needs the S J to set the contract. A low spade is best, as it might induce declarer (with S J-x-x) to rise with the king…

David Grainger: I need to develop a fifth trick before the C K gets knocked out… South may have something like S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-J.

Adrian Barna: Playing South for S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-J. Leading the S A and a low spade also works, but it fails if South has S J-x [and partner has the C A].

Dean Pokorny: … If I continue diamonds, partner will not know to switch to spades with S J-x H x D A-Q-x-x-x-x C Q-x-x-x.

Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible East hand: S J-x H x D A-Q-x-x-x-x C 10-8-6-3. I need to set up a second spade trick before declarer can pitch a spade from dummy on the third club. …

Bruce Neill: … I need to open spades early if South has S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10. Leading the S A could let declarer pitch his diamond loser with S J-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C Q-J-x-x.

Jean-Christophe Clement: Hoping partner has the S J, and trying to get two spade tricks before clubs get going.

Imre Csiszar: This is necessary if East holds S J-x H x D A-Q-x-x-x-x C Q-x-x-x…

Will Engel: Playing partner for S J-x H x D A-Q-x-x-x-x C 10-x-x-x, or so.

Thijs Veugen: Hopefully, partner has the S J, so we can win two spades, two diamonds and the C K. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: I must switch to a spade in case South has S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-J-10, or similar. The S Q is interesting and might make South misguess — but it’s fatal on this layout if he covers.

Tong Xu: South probably has something like S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10.

Travis Crump: The danger of a second diamond is that…partner will lead a third diamond trying for a trump promotion, giving away the timing. The S A risks a diamond going on the third spade [when South has S J-x]; the S Q threatens to block the suit when partner has S J-x.

Kauko Koistinen: Four defensive tricks are obvious, and the setting trick must come from spades when partner has S J-x. If I continue diamonds, partner will lead a third diamond to try for a trump promotion (or shift to clubs), giving declarer nine tricks with something like S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-Q-J.

Xavier Dantan: Partner’s diamond trick, my S A and C K cannot disappear, but a spade might be discarded from dummy on South’s club winner. …

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: It is necessary to develop spades when South has S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10.

John Reardon: I must lead a spade (not the S Q) in case South has S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10. The low spade preserves my options.

Okan Ozcan: We need two spades, two diamonds and a club to defeat this, so I hope partner has S J-x. …

Brad Theurer: This maintains the option to develop a spade trick if South has S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-Q-J, or to [cash out] if South has S J-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C Q-J-10-x.

Rob Wijman: I won’t continue diamonds, because partner will play a third round. In clubs we have only one trick, so we need two from spades; partner may have the S J.

Neelotpal Sahai: Looking for two spade tricks, apart from two diamonds and a club. I must shift to a spade; only question is which. I rule out the S Q, as it may [block the suit] later. Choosing the S 3 gives some amount of deception.

John Auld: Playing partner for S J-x.

Prabhakar Oak: South has five hearts and two diamonds. The contract can be set only if partner has S J-x or the C A. …

Barry White: We need two spade tricks.

Franco Chiarugi: South may have S x-x-x H A-K-9-x-x D x-x C A-J-10,…so I have to play a spade to assure two spades, two diamonds and a club — down one if declarer plays the S K, or down two otherwise.

Sebastien Louveaux: We need an extra trick in spades, so I hope partner has S J-x. Leading low ensures that I can cash two spades when on lead with the C K. Our second diamond trick can wait.

Carsten Kofoed: Our fifth trick must come in a black suit. South can’t have a singleton spade, so I lead low hoping partner has the S J.

Mark Chen: I need to be active and set up a spade trick in case South has S x-x-x H A-K-Q-x-x D x-x C A-J-10. If I continue diamonds, partner may try for a trump promotion.

Baron Ng: South may have S x-x-x H A-K-x-x-x D x-x C A-Q-10.

Wei Victor Zhang: If partner holds S J-x, we can win two spade tricks.

Douglas Dunn: Looks like partner has D A-Q, so he’s [unlikely] to have another ace; but maybe the S J.

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 2

Rubber Bridge
Both Vul
S A 10 6 5
H 8
D 10 9 8 7
C A 10 6 5
You
West

1 H
2 H
All Pass
Dummy
North

Dbl
3 H
Partner
East

Pass
Pass
Declarer
SOUTH
1 D
2 D
3 NT
S K J 4
H K Q J 9 6 2
D Q
C K Q 9
Table3 NT South

Trick
1 W
Lead
H K
2nd
8
3rd
3
4th
5

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
S K1014220
H J734347
C K616322
D Q5406
C 94213
S 41162

Continuing hearts seems obvious — indeed, if only all your leads were this easy. But then, the Master of Suspense never directed a film without a plot twist, so a sense of uncertainty permeates the air. Could it really be right to shift? Wait a second… Doesn’t declarer already have nine tricks? He should have A-K sixth in diamonds and the H A for his bidding.

But wait! Dummy’s diamond holding seems to have too much sparkle. The open-end straight flush is ominous, like the diamond jewelry Uncle Charlie had hidden in his suitcase. Could the diamond suit be blocked? Yes! All partner needs is D J-x, and declarer cannot win six diamond tricks. Consider a plausible layout:

Rubber BridgeS A 10 6 5TrickLead2nd3rd4th
Both VulH 81 WH K835
D 10 9 8 72 WH J?D 7!410
C A 10 6 53 WH 9D 8!7A
S K J 4TableS Q 9 7 3Declarer succeeds
H K Q J 9 6 2H 7 4 3
D QD J 4
C K Q 9C 8 7 4 2
S 8 2
H A 10 5
D A K 6 5 3 2
3 NT SouthC J 3

Declarer has a plan. To overcome the blockage he pitches diamonds on the second and third heart leads, then the suit runs free and clear. Declarer can even do this on his own; e.g., if you switch to the D Q, he will win and lead the H 10 (pitching a diamond), then when he wins the D A, he can jettison dummy’s last diamond on the H A to unblock the suit.

The Pinochle Defense

To defeat the contract, you must switch to the black suit that can establish three tricks for the defense, and spades is the clear answer. You need partner to have a pinochle (D J and S Q). If declarer ducks the S K, you will continue with the S J. If he ducks again, you must mastermind another plot twist and shift to the C K. Take that! No matter how declarer struggles, he cannot come to nine tricks.

What if partner has the C J instead of the S Q? Wouldn’t the C K switch then work as well? No, because the club suit is blocked. Declarer can win the C A, cross in diamonds, and concede a heart; then all you can win are two club tricks. Alternately, if declarer has S Q-x, he can duck two clubs. The bottom line: You need partner to have the S Q, so play for it.

What if South has a doubleton heart, say, S Q-x H A-5 D A-K-x-x-x-x C J-x-x? Illogical, as this gives partner H 10-7-4-3, and he would encourage a continuation. Partner would know South had only two hearts, so he would hardly turn you off with the H 3.

If South has D A-K sixth* as expected (and the obvious H A) no other defense has a chance. Counterplay exists if South is missing the D K in a slim opener like S Q-x-x H A-x-x D A-J-x-x-x-x C x, or S Q-x H A-10-x-x D A-J-x-x-x-x C x, in which case a non-spade lead may succeed. These hands are further diminished because 3 NT is a dubious bid (especially with 6-4 shape) as evidenced by 5 D being cold.

*I consider it implausible for South to have only five diamonds, as an expert would then prefer to rebid 1 NT or a three-card spade suit.

Differences among the H J, D Q, C K and C 9 are small, so they’re ranked by the voting.

Worst of all is the S 4, after which I don’t believe there is any layout to beat the contract, but in this contest I can’t be sure, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Comments for the S K

Barry Rigal: Could South have S x-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x with no D J? If I play a second heart, he ducks (pitching a diamond) and can unblock his nine tricks. … I think I need partner to have the S Q to set this.

Rob Stevens: Clearly, 3 NT is cold unless diamonds are blocked; then we need to have three cashing tricks when declarer leads another low heart. The club blockage leaves no choice but to play partner for at least S Q-7-x-x.

Wuping Lu: South may have S x-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x.

Jordi Sabate: If South has six diamonds, I need partner to have D J-x, so the suit will block. But then, a passive defense allows declarer to play a small heart then the H A (pitching a diamond each time) to unblock the suit. So I have to be active, and partner needs at least S Q-x-x-x.

John Lusky: Declarer might have S x-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x,…and be struggling to overcome the diamond blockage, in which case the S K works if partner has as little as S Q-7-x-x. Another possibility is that partner has the D K (South having the S Q and C J), in which case I don’t think we can beat 3 NT if South is 2=3=6=2, and he might have rebid 1 NT with that pattern anyway. The S K also works if South is 1=3=6=3 or 1=4=6=2…

Jim Munday: Even if South has only five diamonds, I need partner to hold a black-suit honor, lest I be strip-squeezed. There is a very real chance that South’s diamond suit is temporarily blocked by partner’s D J-x; then a second heart will be fatal, as declarer can duck (pitching a diamond) and pitch another on the H A to unblock the suit. Declarer can arrange this himself, so I must threaten to win five tricks our way. Clubs are not good enough…due to blockage;…so I’ll play partner for S Q-7-x-x or better. Declarer must duck spades twice, then a club shift will set up our fifth trick…

Joon Pahk: Hoping to establish two spade tricks…before declarer can unblock dummy’s diamonds.

Julian Wightwick: If South had only five diamonds, the H A and a black honor, he would probably rebid 1 NT. Therefore, I will play him for S x-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x (or similar), in which case diamonds are blocked until another heart is ducked. …

Charles Blair: I need to assume more than blockage in diamonds.

Steve White: Declarer likely has six diamonds, but maybe they’re blocked. Declarer must duck the first two spades (I hope) lest we establish enough tricks to beat him, then I’ll lead a high club…

David Grainger: Continuing hearts will allow declarer to unblock dummy’s diamonds…if partner has D J-x. … Partner probably needs the missing quacks to beat this, and spades is the key suit [to attack].

Lajos Linczmayer: I hope South has S x H A-10-5 D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x-x, so diamonds are blocked. If I play one more heart, declarer pitches a diamond and ducks.

Bruce Neill: Declarer looks to have six diamond tricks and three aces; but if partner has D J-x, the suit blocks. A heart continuation lets declarer throw two diamonds from dummy to unblock. We need to set up three black winners, so I hope partner has S Q-x-x-x; then declarer can’t afford to duck a heart.

Perry Groot: Best chance is that diamonds are blocked: South with D A-K-x-x-x-x and partner with D J-x. The S K is the only shift that may set up five tricks before declarer has nine.

Will Engel: Hopefully, if South holds S 9-8 H A-10-x D A-K-6-5-3-2 C J-x, partner with S Q-7-3-2 won’t signal with the seven to show he likes my lead. :)

Would it make you feel any better if he overtakes your S J with the queen to return a heart?

Jonathan Mestel: My clubs are too strong!

Thijs Veugen: The diamond suit may be blocked — unless I lead hearts (or diamonds). Clubs have no future because of the blocking C 9; so I hope partner has the S Q

Leif-Erik Stabell: I need a bit from partner, and S Q-x-x-x H x-x-x D J-x C x-x-x-x would be ideal. I can’t continue hearts and let declarer unblock diamonds.

Thibault Wolf: … If declarer has D A-K-x-x-x-x, a heart continuation helps him unblock the suit; so I have to shift, and the S K seems best. Dummy’s D 10-9-8-7 may be a trap, but I like to fall in. :)

Tong Xu: Hoping partner has D J-x and the S Q.

David Caprera: Diamonds are blocked if declarer has S 9-x H A-10-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C J-x, and a second heart (ducked) allows him to unblock.

Jerry Fink: On the reasonable assumption that diamonds are blocked, I must act immediately to set up three [black] tricks before declarer unblocks diamonds on [hearts]. The club suit is blocked for us, so my only hope is to find partner with at least S Q-x-x-x.

David Lindop: Best hope is that partner has D J-x, blocking the suit; but declarer can discard two diamonds on hearts if I continue. Partner having the C J won’t be good enough, since declarer can win the C A, and our clubs are blocked; so I need partner to have at least S Q-7-x-x. …

Kauko Koistinen: Declarer’s diamonds are blocked if partner has D J-x; but if I continue hearts [or lead the D Q], declarer can pitch blocking diamonds from dummy. … I need to [set up] three black tricks, and clubs won’t do (even if partner has C J-8-x-x); so partner must have at least S Q-7-x-x. If declarer ducks two spades, I will shift to the C K.

Martin Byrne: To prevent the impending unblock [of diamonds on hearts]. If I switch to clubs, declarer could block our suit in revenge.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: When declarer has S 9-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C J-x, this will beat him, as diamonds are blocked. If he has S Q-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x [and I lead the C K], our clubs block.

John Reardon: Declarer has nine top tricks if he can cash them; however, if he holds S x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x-x-x, this switch will defeat him.

Rainer Herrmann: To beat the contract, I need partner to have D J-x and the S Q — but not the C J. Declarer will try to discard diamonds from dummy on hearts.

Tim DeLaney: I hope South has S x-x H A-10-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x, or similar, so diamonds are doubly blocked. The S K sets up three tricks, preventing South from ducking another heart to untangle diamonds. If South ducks two spades, I shift to the C K.

Dale Freeman: Playing partner for at least S Q-7-x-x. I think declarer has six diamonds and three bullets, but diamonds are blocked.

Bas Oosthoek: To set up enough tricks before declarer gets rid of two blocking diamonds on his hearts.

Len Vishnevsky: It looks like declarer has H A-x-x, so he should have six diamonds to rebid 2 D instead of 1 NT. If he has something like S Q-2 H A-4-3 D A-K-6-5-4-3 C J-2, 3 NT is cold; but if partner has the S Q, the S K shift will set the contract. If I continue hearts, he can unblock diamonds.

Sebastien Louveaux: Bidding and early play point to South having the H A and six diamonds; if D A-K-x-x-x-x, dummy’s blocking spots can be discarded on hearts… So I need to decide which black suit to develop, and spades is the answer, merely needing S Q-x-x-x. If spades are ducked twice, I’ll lead the C K.

Carsten Kofoed: My clubs are too good, and I can’t defeat 3 NT if South has the S Q. If South has S 9-x H A-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C J-x, we can take five tricks before diamonds can be unblocked on hearts.

Baron Ng: South may have S x-x H A-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x C J-x.

Emmanuel Amiot: … If South has the S Q, I am sunk anyway.

Roger Sun: If partner has D J-x, the diamond suit is blocked — until declarer is able to pitch two diamonds on hearts. … If partner has the C J, clubs will block; so partner needs the S Q

Amiram Millet: To cater for partner holding S Q-x-x-x H 10-3 D J-x C x-x-x-x-x. If declarer ducks, I go on with the S J.

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 3

Rubber Bridge
E-W Vul
S J 8
H A K J
D J 9 6 4 2
C K 8 4
You
West

Pass
Pass
Dummy
NORTH
1 D
1 NT
4 H
Partner
East
Pass
Pass
All Pass
Declarer
South
1 S
3 H
S 10 9 6 5
H 9 4 3
D A 8
C Q J 10 5
Table4 H South

Trick
1 W
Lead
C Q
2nd
4
3rd
7
4th
2

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
C 101018826
C J923933
H 4616222
D A511015
S 104203
S 5161

“Worked so well, I’ll try it again” is the obvious strategy after winning the C Q, but then you have visions of Hitchcock, or doubt that I would even use this problem if a club continuation were right. Aha! Maybe my plot is to engulf you so much with Hitchcock that you’re blinded to reality, which brings another question: What is reality?

South is likely to be 5-5 in the majors, though 5-4 is possible*, but his minor-suit pattern is unknown. Partner’s C 7 signal is attitude not count. (For those who think attitude is foolish when the queen wins, see December 2001 Problem 1.) Therefore, it’s not clear how many clubs you can win; but a club lead can wait if there is something more urgent.

*Most experts would use “new minor forcing” with five spades and four hearts, reserving the jump to show 5-5, but this is moot. While NMF is included in the default system, specific details about when to use it are not; so you can’t conclude that South must be 5-5.

Dummy’s spade holding suggests declarer will have to ruff two spades (barring S A-K-Q-x-x) because your S 10-9 will become high after partner’s K-x or Q-x falls with dummy’s jack. Therefore, a trump shift may be a viable defense. Consider a plausible layout:

Rubber BridgeS J 8TrickLead2nd3rd4th
E-W VulH A K J1 WC Q472
D J 9 6 4 22 WH 4A26
C K 8 43 NS 84A5
S 10 9 6 5TableS Q 44 SS K6JQ
H 9 4 3H 5 25 SS 29H KC 3
D A 8D Q 10 7 56 NC 89H 75
C Q J 10 5C A 9 7 6 37 SS 310H JD 5
S A K 7 3 28 NC KAH 810
H Q 10 8 7 69 SH Q3D 25
D K 310 SH 109
4 H SouthC 2Declarer succeeds

Suppose you switch to a trump at Trick 2, won in dummy. Declarer’s play flows easily: S A-K; spade ruff; club ruff; spade ruff; club ruff; draw trumps, then win the last spade. If South’s minor-suit lengths were reversed, a trump shift would work fine, as declarer could not reach his hand for a second spade ruff. C’est la vie.

Now suppose you continue clubs, ruffed by South. If declarer continues as above, he will reach this position with dummy on lead:

H win 4STrickLead2nd3rd4th
H J1 ND 27KA
D J 9 6 4 22 WH 4J2Q
C3 SH 103D 45
STableSDeclarer fails
H 9 4 3H 5 2
D A 8D Q 10 7
C 5C 9
S 7
H Q 10 8
D K 3
North leadsC

A dead end. Declarer cannot overtake the H J without promoting your nine; and if he wins it separately he will lose trump control. Best chance is to lead to the D K, which loses, then a trump return leaves the same predicament. Down one.

A club continuation is looking better! If South is only 5-4 in the majors, it is just as effective, unless South has D K-Q-x, in which case no defense works with hearts so friendly. The only question is which club. It’s probably academic, but I see no reason to violate the standard expert practice of leading the 10. Leading the jack indicates a short holding (at most three) and partner may fear Q-J doubleton, though overtaking to give you a ruff is far-fetched (declarer would not duck twice with 10-x-x). The C J gets a close second.

Shifting to a trump must settle for a distant third. It was hard to find a layout where this works and a club fails, but I succeeded: If South has S A-7-4-3-2 H Q-x-x-x D K-Q-x C 2, a second club allows a dummy reversal, while a trump (or anything else for that matter) sets the contract. Nonetheless, catching partner with S K-Q doubleton is a long shot.

Fourth place is a close call between the passive S 10 and the attacking D A. The latter may seem foolish, but if South has S A-K-Q-x-x H Q-x-x-x D Q-x-x C 2, he has 10 tricks (dummy reversal) if you don’t take three diamonds with a ruff. Far more often, however, the D A will gift the contract. Rather than pursue these poor leads in detail, I’ll yield to the voting, which greatly preferred the D A.

Leading a low spade is clearly worst, as declarer will deduce that you wouldn’t lead from a high honor in his first suit; hence, the S 8 from dummy may force partner’s queen or king. Nothing like a freebie!

Comments for the C 10

Barry Rigal: … I assume 3 H can be 5-4 shape and was forcing. So long as we cash our clubs, I can’t see game making — if it can be set. What am I missing?

Rob Stevens: If I lead a heart and declarer holds S A-K-Q-x-x H 10-x-x-x-x D K C x-x, he will probably just cash H A-K then [run spades] to discard clubs. A heart lead will defeat S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K C x-x; but so will three rounds of clubs…

Wuping Lu: South may have S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x.

John Lusky: I need to tap declarer if he has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x, making it impossible to enjoy his long spade. Playing the C 10 next eliminates any chance that partner will play me for Q-J doubleton, and South a hand like S A-Q-10-9-x H Q-10-9-x-x D C 10-x-x, or S A-Q-10-9-x H Q-10-9-8 D A C 10-x-x; but partner probably should not [overtake], since declarer would have to be inspired to duck the second club…

Jim Munday: Declarer should be 5-5 in the majors, something like S A-Q-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x. A major-suit shift is not enough, as declarer has the entries to set up the long spade; a diamond is also fatal. I must tap declarer to kill the long spade, and the C 10 will clarify the suit for partner if it proves critical.

Joon Pahk: … Even if declarer ruffs, it’s a good idea to remove his hand entries before he can get spades going.

Julian Wightwick: Takes away an entry to declarer’s hand (in case he has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x) and shows partner I have the C 10, which might avoid an accident later on.

Steve White: I need to force declarer if he has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x. (South is not marked with the C 9, since partner didn’t know I had the 10).

Leonard Helfgott: I’ll let declarer do his own work. [Maybe] partner will score his H Q on a spade overruff. [Leading] a diamond risks declarer holding D K-x.

Adrian Barna: Destroying declarer’s timing if he holds S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x.

Dean Pokorny: An immediate club force is needed when declarer holds S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x.

Lajos Linczmayer: Partner may have C A-9-7-6-3, as [he would not signal with the nine] when South may have C 10-x. If declarer has, say, S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x, I must continue clubs to prevent him from establishing spades — so this time I vote for the obvious.

Imre Csiszar: The obvious lead appears best… Declarer may hold S A-K-Q-x-x and H 10-x-x-x-x; then if clubs aren’t cashed, he may play H A-K intending to discard clubs on spades. If we cash our clubs, he will see no reason to reject the heart finesse.

Perry Groot: It seems best to force declarer, removing an entry that he needs to establish spades. The C 10 seems better [than the jack] as it [clarifies the layout], and I want clubs continued if dummy’s king is played.

Jonathan Mestel: Attacking entries when South has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x. Could partner really go wrong if I led the C J? I have more than a shadow of a doubt that I’ve missed the point here…

Thijs Veugen: I must continue clubs, in case South has something like S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x, to destroy his communication to set up the spade suit. The C 10 makes things clear for partner.

Thibault Wolf: If declarer has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x, continuing clubs is important to leave him with only one more hand entry (club ruff). I hope for a trump promotion of the H 9.

Martin Byrne: Declarer can’t do everything — unless I help him. Partner shouldn’t have a problem with the systemic C 10.

Xavier Dantan: South should be 5-5,…so we have only three minor winners and need a spade (or heart) trick. I [probably] need a spade honor from partner. … Continuing clubs may be fatal to declarer’s communication. A heart shift loses our timing advantage.

Paulino Correa: South should be strong with 5-4 or 5-5 in the majors, …maybe S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x; …then only a club continuation is successful. … Another pleasant surprise would be S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x D K-Q C x-x, but beating the contract then will be easy…

Ron Landgraff: Pedestrian; but what is better? Best chance is that declarer has only four hearts and handling difficulties. South’s jump in hearts warns against partner having much more than the C A.

Tim DeLaney: There’s [little] hope unless partner has a spade honor, but leading spades does declarer’s work. … Leading a trump fails if South has S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D C x-x-x. So I lead the C 10, eventually intending to force declarer in a minor. Declarer cannot crossruff or set up spades, because my H 9 will be promoted. The C J would needlessly conceal the C 10 from partner; why confuse him?

Neelotpal Sahai: Club ruffs are hand entries for declarer to ruff spades. The C 10 is better than the C J, as it denotes the honor sequence [to partner].

John Auld: Declarer may try to ruff two spades and enjoy his long spade (with H Q-10-x-x-x). Forcing in clubs disrupts his entries.

Len Vishnevsky: Declarer has something like S A-K-4-3-2 H Q-10-8-5-2 D K-3 C 2, and I have to tap him before he sets up spades. …There’s no danger partner will misread the C 10.

Amiram Millet: Partner may have S K-x H x-x D Q-10-x-x C A-9-7-x-x…

N. Scott Cardell: Partner has the C A. If I switch to a major, declarer with S A-K-J-x-x H 10-8-x-x-x D K C x-x will cash H A-K, planning to leave the H Q out and discard two clubs on spades;…but if I continue clubs, he should take the losing heart finesse. … Leading the D A gives declarer his 10th trick with an ordinary hand like S A-K-Q-x-x H Q-x-x-x D K-x C x-x.

Comments for the C J

Charles Blair: If declarer is 6=5=1=1, perhaps he will play me for four hearts and S K-x-x.

Leif-Erik Stabell: South didn’t bid 4 H over 1 NT, so may be slam interested with (1) S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x-x D K-x C x, or has only four hearts with (2) S A-x-x-x-x H Q-x-x-x D K-Q-x C x, (3) S A-K-Q-x-x H Q-10-x-x D Q-x-x C x, or (4) S A-K-x-x-x H Q-10-x-x D K-x-x C x. Hand 1 is defeated by a club; Hand 2, a trump; Hand 3, a diamond; and Hand 4, anything but a diamond. A trump is passive but gives declarer the right tempo in Hand 1, a likely layout. A diamond is sometimes needed but more often fatal — and partner might have discouraged clubs with good diamonds. A club might assist with a dummy reversal (South 5=4=3=1) but keeps most options open. I prefer the C J, in case declarer has a guess in diamonds and misreads the C 10 as suit preference.

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 4

Rubber Bridge
None Vul
S Q J 9 3
H 5 2
D A 8 7 6 5
C K 9
You
West

1 H
2 H
All Pass
Dummy
NORTH
Pass
Dbl
3 S
Partner
East
Pass
Pass
Pass
Declarer
South
1 C
1 S
4 S
S A 2
H K Q 9 8 7 3
D Q J 9 4
C 4
Table4 S South

Trick
1 W
Lead
H K
2nd
2
3rd
10
4th
6

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
H 91010214
C 4938854
H 38659
D Q59814
S A4689
S 2141

Leading your singleton is obvious, right? If not on the opening lead, surely now. Evidently, from the majority vote. The problem is how to get to partner for a club ruff, and the H 10 does not provide an answer. While partner might have the H A, the 10 is routine from H 10-4 (declarer holding up with A-J-6).

Well, which is it? The H A with partner? Or a Bath coup by declarer? The bidding favors the latter, as South has most of the high cards. Restricted choice does also: Declarer’s play is forced from H A-J-6*, which makes it about twice as likely as a chosen spot from H J-6-4. Further evidence is that East might have bid 2 H with H A-10-x, or overtaken at Trick 1 with H A-10 doubleton. Another clue is that South rates to be short in diamonds (probably a singleton) suggesting East’s only high card will be the D K.

*Some respondents felt that declarer would win the ace with H A-J-x, but I don’t buy it. Declarer is in a precarious contract and may need all the tempo advantage he can muster. Even if West has seven hearts (unlikely) a second-round ruff is not necessarily fatal.

While hardly beyond a shadow of a doubt, all indications point to a layout like this:

Rubber BridgeS Q J 9 3TrickLead2nd3rd4th
None VulH 5 21 WH K2106
D A 8 7 6 52 WC 4?9JA
C K 93 SD 24A3
S A 2TableS 10 5 44 ND 5KS 69
H K Q 9 8 7 3H 10 45 SS 7A35
D Q J 9 4D K 10 3Declarer succeeds
C 4C Q J 8 7 3
S K 8 7 6
H A J 6
D 2
4 S SouthC A 10 6 5 2

After winning the H K, suppose you lead the C 4. Red flag! Declarer will expect a singleton and abandon clubs. After winning the C A, he will cross to the D A, ruff a diamond, and lead a trump. Suppose you win the S A to preserve your chance for a ruff. What can you do? Nothing, in fact any return will aid declarer’s cause.

Now consider the play with a heart continuation. This seems to help declarer by completing his Bath coup, but in truth it is diabolical. Logical play is to start with a low spade*, which you take with the ace to lead a third heart. Curtains! Whether declarer ruffs high or discards, there is no path to 10 tricks. I won’t go into the many variations, but failure is beyond a shadow of a doubt.

*Declarer can succeed with: D A; diamond ruff; low spade won by West who leads a heart, ruffed high; diamond ruff; S K; C K; S J (last trump); C 9 to the 10 (or duck if East splits). Wonderful but clearly double-dummy. Declarer has no tip-off to the bad club break, so normal play is to establish clubs.

As to which heart, the nine is correct as suit preference for diamonds.* If declarer pitches on the third heart and East ruffs, you don’t want him to blow the defense with a club return.

*Some might argue that West could lead the H 3, then give suit preference on the next round, but this is wrong. The first chosen card is primary, so a mixed offering (H 3 then H 9) in theory would suggest only a slight club preference, but in practice just leads to confusion.

This problem emphasizes a wise tactic. With a singleton in declarer’s suit, the best way to get a ruff is usually not to lead it. Don’t set off the alarm bells! Declarer will usually play to establish his suit, then bang, you get your ruff and it’s over. Hitchcock would be proud.

Second place goes to the club shift, and I’ll make it a close second per the majority vote. Despite my disapproval, it may be better than I think. Coming at Trick 2 (not the opening lead) the “singleton alarm” is less clear.

The H 3 gets a close third. While technically no different than the H 9, the message it delivers could cause partner to err. A case could be made for its deceptive value, but so could this entire contest. After all, was there really an Alfred Hitchcock?

Other leads are basically passive, posing no immediate threat and leaving declarer to his own devices. Fourth place goes to the D Q, which at least retains hope for a club ruff. Leading trumps loses this hope, though ace and another has some merit. Leading the S 2 first boggles the mind to find any justification.

Comments for the H 9

Barry Rigal: Trying to weaken dummy’s trumps by leading a third heart later.

Rob Stevens: If partner has the H A, a club easily sets the contract; but that doesn’t leave declarer with much. A likely South hand is S K-10-x-x H A-J-x D x C A-x-x-x-x; then an unlikely heart continuation temporarily gives a trick, but declarer will have to ruff the third heart anyway. Now my hearts are set up, and declarer cannot succeed [barring double-dummy play].

Lajos Linczmayer: If South has S K-10-x-x H J-x-x D K-x C A-Q-J-x, I should switch to the C 4; but I expect he has H A-J-6, and partner has the C A or D K. … Shifting to spades may result in a heart-diamond squeeze or a diamond throw-in. I prefer to continue hearts then kill the H A

Perry Groot: The C 4 seems the obvious switch, which is right when partner has the H A or C A; however, this is highly unlikely given the bidding. A heart continuation is probably into H A-J, but a third heart [nullifies] the H A, and may kill a possible squeeze in the process; e.g., when South has S 10-x-x-x H A-J-x D K C A-J-10-x-x.

Jonathan Mestel: Playing South for something like S 10-x-x-x H A-J-x D K C A-Q-x-x-x. Leading the H 3 might suggest a club void.

True, and leading the S 2 might suggest a mental void.

Thijs Veugen: I will lead a third heart later to guarantee three spade tricks when South has S x-x-x-x H A-J-x D K-x C A-x-x-x. The H 9 shows diamond values to partner.

Bill Cubley: Now partner knows I have diamond cards…

John David Phillip: I would have led the singleton club in the first place! [Now it seems wrong].

Zoran Bohacek: This seems safer than a club, which will lose a trick in some layouts. Choice is between the H 9 and H 3.

George Klemic: Why do I get the feeling that the solution is to play partner for S K-10-x and continue hearts for a trump promotion?

Comments for the C 4

John Lusky: Partner appears to have one ace or king, and either H A-10-x, A-10 or 10-x. … If partner has the H A, I need to play a club now; and it also works if partner has the C A. If partner’s high card is something else, perhaps he can convey that by playing a low spot on the first round of clubs, then I can shift gears to a passive defense.

Jim Munday: My best chance is for partner to hold the H A. Partner can defeat the scissors coup [if South has H J-x D K-x] by ruffing the third diamond. Can partner hold H A-10-x and not raise? It’s possible, particularly with sterile distribution. The club lead also succeeds on several other layouts.

Steve White: Best chance is that partner has the H A and can use it to give me a club ruff. This is somewhat contraindicated, since he didn’t raise hearts; but he could be 3=3=3=4 or 3=3=2=5 with no honor except the H A.

David Grainger: If partner has the H A (or C A), this will beat the contract — as long as partner ruffs the third diamond (South having H J-x D K-x) or plays the D 10 on the second round if South is 4=2=1=6 and [overtakes] a stiff D K. …

Manuel Paulo: If [partner has the H A], I need a club ruff to set the contract. If South holds S K-8-x-x H A-J-6 D 10 C A-8-x-x-x, or S 10-8-x-x H A-J-6 D K C A-Q-8-x-x, I must lead a heart; but declarer [might] not try a Bath coup with either hand.

Bruce Neill: Our agreement is that partner will play high from 10-x at trick one; but declarer might win with A-J-x, not risking a 7-1 break. If partner has H A-10 doubleton, he can deduce to keep his heart entry to give me a club ruff.

Will Engel: I don’t expect partner to have H A-10-x, so I’ll play South for something like S K-10-x-x H J-x-x D K C A-Q-J-10-x.

Jerry Fink: Relying on partner to hold a club trick is too dangerous. Without a heart raise, partner most likely has two…hearts; and if H A-10, I have enough time to get a club ruff…

Brad Theurer: This wins if partner has the C A (unlikely), or if he has H A-10 and correctly retained his entry… Partner is unlikely to have H A-10-x (no raise); but if he does, I’m sure he will prevent declarer’s scissors coup attempt (with S K-10-x-x H J-x D K-x C A-Q-J-x-x) by ruffing the third diamond.

Amiram Millet: Partner may have S x-x-x H A-10 D K-x-x C x-x-x-x-x, so I’ll get a club ruff later…

Comment for the H K

George W. Bush: I know I already played this card, but I’ll lead it again. Defense is nicer, when you do it twicer. If it wins again, I’ll try for three… La dee dah, dee dah, dee dee.

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 5

Rubber Bridge
N-S Vul
S Q 6
H A 3 2
D Q 5 4 3
C K Q 9 5
You
West

1 S
Pass
Dummy
North

2 C
5 D
Partner
East

3 S1
All Pass
Declarer
SOUTH
1 D
4 D
S A K 10 9 5 4
H Q 8 7
D 6
C J 3 2
Table5 D South

Trick
1 W
Lead
S K
2nd
6
3rd
8
4th
3
1. weak

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
C J109213
S A836951
D 67416
C 26264
H 7315421
H Q1436

What could be more obvious than leading the S A next? It won’t cash of course (partner must have four spades for his weak jump raise) but it will erase dummy’s threat in case you need to guard hearts later. But then, what could be more obvious than the solution to x3 = 8? I suppose your answer is 2, but just as correct is -1 +i√3. In Hitchcockian fare, the obvious might be an illusion; parallel lines sometimes cross; and leading the S A might be as crazy as Norman Bates in Psycho.

Consider declarer’s tricks: South surely has six strong diamonds, which must be solid in view of dummy; and he should have the C A to justify his aggression. If South has C A-x-x, he has 11 tricks (clubs split 3-3) so you hope for C A-x, which gives South 1=4=6=2 shape. Partner must have the H K to have a chance. Consider a likely layout:

Rubber BridgeS Q 6TrickLead2nd3rd4th
N-S VulH A 3 21 WS K683
D Q 5 4 32 WS A?Q2D 8
C K Q 9 53 SD A632
S A K 10 9 5 4TableS J 8 7 24 SD JS 447
H Q 8 7H K 9 65 SD 9S 5QS 7
D 6D 7 26 NH 26JQ
C J 3 2C 10 8 6 47 WC J54A
S 38 SH 47A9
H J 10 5 49 ND 5S JKS 9
D A K J 10 9 8continued below…
5 D SouthC A 7

Suppose you defend routinely with a second spade lead, ruffed. After drawing trumps, declarer might eliminate clubs then play H A and a heart hoping for honor-doubleton in either hand, or run the H J hoping for H K-Q in the same hand; but there is a better play. Spades are surely 6-4 (East would bid 4 S with five) so East is likely to guard clubs; if he also has a heart honor, declarer is home.

Three rounds of trumps are led ending in dummy, then a low heart (East must duck else West can be finessed) to the jack and queen. Win the club return (best) with the ace, cross to the H A (Vienna coup) and return to hand in trumps to reach this ending:

D win allSTrickLead2nd3rd4th
H 310 SD 10S 10H 3?
DEast is squeezed
C K Q 9
S 10TableS
H 8H K
DD
C 3 2C 10 8 6
S
H 10 5
D 10
South leadsC 7

On the last trump, a heart is thrown from dummy, and East must part with the H K or his club stopper.

Well done by declarer! Not so by the defense. At Trick 2 you must shift to club. Any club will do as the cards lie, but the jack is correct in case South has C A-8. When you gain the lead with the H Q, a second club will remove the entry for the squeeze. Note that the H A entry is useless to declarer, as East will simply keep whatever dummy keeps.

A club shift is also necessary when South has H J-9-x-x, as the same squeeze develops. If East hops with the H K (from K-10-x), declarer can run the H J to force a cover, then squeeze East with the H 9 threat.

Several respondents mentioned the danger of a club shift when South has a hand like S 3 H K-10-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C 10-x. Certainly true, but few experts would bid 4 D on minimal values with nothing in clubs. (I would pass, as partner might bid 3 NT next.) Bidding 4 D should show extras, or at least a hand that improved with the 2 C bid (note how much nicer C A-x looks in the diagram).

From the discussion so far, the C 2 would seem to deserve second place, but closer scrutiny shows otherwise. Besides losing to C A-8, it also loses when declarer has a singleton club (1=4=7=1 shape), as he will duck in dummy (one pitch doesn’t help); then East will win the ace (even with C A-10-8-x-x) expecting West to have the singleton. Wouldn’t you? Hence a passive lead (S A or a trump) is better, ranked second and third by the voting, and the C 2 must settle for fourth.

Curiously, if the contract were six diamonds, the S A would be the winner, as failure to erase the S Q allows a double squeeze when South has S 3 H K-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x.

Leading a heart is worst by far. This can never be necessary to establish a heart trick (declarer must have the C A or H K) so all it does is minimize your chance to win heart tricks. Between the H 7 and H Q, low is certainly better. Indeed, the H Q might be the only lead to give away a hopeless contract. Oops, scratch that! Fritz would find a low spade.

Comments for the C J

Barry Rigal: Trying to break up a squeeze when South has S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-10-9-x-x C A-x; and the jack in case of C A-8.

Rob Stevens: Breaking up the squeeze when South holds S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C A-8.

Wuping Lu: South may have S x H K-x-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x-x C 8.

Jordi Sabate: South must have the C A, so I need partner to have the H K and C 10-x-x-x. Problem is to protect against declarer having H J-10-x-x, as he will lead a heart from dummy (partner must duck) and play for divided honors, later squeezing partner. I have to lead clubs twice to break the squeeze, and I lead the C J first in case South has C A-8.

John Lusky: Necessary to protect partner from a heart-club squeeze if declarer has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C A-8 and starts hearts low from dummy.

Jim Munday: Partner’s S 8 suggests a heart card, and I’ll need him to hold the H K to defeat the contract. … Partner is susceptible to a rounded-suit squeeze when declarer holds something like S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C A-x. To kill the squeeze, I must lead clubs twice (once now, once when in with a heart), and the C J first lest declarer have C A-8.

Joon Pahk: … Maybe South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8, and I need to save partner from a heart-club squeeze.

Leonard Helfgott: Partner needs either the C A or the H K (more likely) to defeat this. I must attack clubs to destroy a squeeze position (hoping partner has C 10-x-x-x), as anything else allows declarer with H J-10-x-x or J-9-x-x to [succeed]. …

David Grainger: Partner can only have one high card, so the only shape declarer might fail with is 1=4=6=2, lacking the H K. I must play the C J, in case declarer’s spot is the eight; and when declarer leads toward his H J-10-x-x (or J-9-x-x), another club will break up the squeeze on partner.

Dean Pokorny: If South has S x H K-10-9-x D A-K-J-x-x-x-x C 8, only the C J shift destroys a potential throw in against partner.

Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible East hand: S J-8-7-2 H K-9-x D x-x C 10-7-6-4. If I lead the S A or D 6, declarer has an easy task: [squeeze described]. To protect partner’s C 10, I lead the jack.

Lajos Linczmayer: If South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C A-8, we can win two heart tricks — [provided] I protect partner’s C 10 and prevent a heart-club squeeze.

Bruce Neill: If South has S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x, I can’t afford to defend passively. [Squeeze described]. To defeat the squeeze, I must break communication in clubs — leading the jack in case South has C A-8.

Jean-Christophe Clement: To break the club-heart squeeze if South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8.

Imre Csiszar: This can hardly be beaten unless we win two hearts, possible if South is 1=4=6=2 lacking the H K and C 10. If he has the critical holding: H J-10-x-x C A-8, only the C J beats 5 D. [Play described].

Perry Groot: To prevent a squeeze when South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C A-8.

Will Engel: If declarer has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-9-x-x C A-8,…partner will be squeezed if I don’t [lead a club], and I can’t afford to lead a small club. …

Jonathan Mestel: Maybe South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8, then this breaks up a heart-club squeeze.

Thijs Veugen: Necessary when South has S 3 H K-10-9-x D A-K-J-x-x-x-x C 8, allowing partner to win and escape with a spade.

Leif-Erik Stabell: I must prevent partner from being squeezed with S J-x-x-x H K-10-x D x-x C 10-x-x-x, or similar.

Thibault Wolf: To avoid a heart-club squeeze against partner, if South has S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C A-x.

Tong Xu: To avoid an endplay when South has S x H K-J-9-x D A-K-x-x-x-x-x C 8. Partner can win the C A and exit safely.

David Caprera: If South has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C A-8, I need to break up the rounded-suit squeeze.

Jerry Fink: Declarer may have a working heart-club squeeze against partner (who will have to duck the first heart led from dummy), unless I Sabotage communication…

David Lindop: [Little] chance if declarer has seven diamonds or three clubs, so I will assume he has something like S 3 H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C A-x. I need to switch to a club to stop partner from being squeezed,…and the jack caters to South having C A-8.

Kauko Koistinen: If declarer has S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8 and I continue spades or shift to diamonds, he will draw trumps ending dummy and play a small heart. [Squeeze described]. To break communication, I must play the C J, then another club after winning the H Q.

Martin Byrne: Protecting partner from the impending rounded-suit squeeze.

John Reardon: This is the only defense if South has S x H J-x-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8, danger being that partner could otherwise be squeezed in hearts and clubs.

Rainer Herrmann: This is needed if declarer has something like S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-x-x-x-x C A-x, else he will play a low heart from dummy then squeeze partner in clubs and hearts.

Brad Theurer: Beginning the process of breaking transportation for a rounded-suit squeeze against partner (South having, say, S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x). Only the C J will do when South has C A-8.

Tim DeLaney: If declarer has S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x, he will have to duck a heart to put pressure on partner in the rounded suits. I need to lead clubs twice to sever communication — and not the C 2 first, as it gives away a trick to South’s C A-8.

Dale Freeman: Playing partner for H K-9-x and C 10-x-x-x. The C J followed by another later breaks up the squeeze on partner.

Neelotpal Sahai: If declarer has something like S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-10-x-x C A-x, it is important to play a club now and again when I win a heart trick.

Franco Chiarugi: If declarer has three clubs, a heart can be pitched on the fourth club, and the contract is made; so I have to play him for S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x. If I do not attack communication immediately (with the C J of course), declarer can squeeze partner…

Carsten Kofoed: Often it won’t matter, but if South has S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8, it’s necessary to attack with the C J to break the heart-club squeeze against partner.

Douglas Dunn: Looks like there is only one spade trick. If South has something like S x H J-10-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-x, partner is going to get squeezed — unless I play clubs twice.

N. Scott Cardell: … Declarer must have six or seven good diamonds and the C A. If he has three clubs or seven diamonds (or H K, H J-10-9 or C 10), we are up the proverbial creek; so I’ll give him 1=4=6=2 distribution. The critical hand is S x H J-9-x-x D A-K-J-x-x-x C A-8 (or H J-10-x-x), [play described], in which case I must lead the C J. If declarer runs his trumps immediately then leads to the H A, I trust partner to unblock the H K

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Problem 6

Rubber Bridge
Both Vul
S 10 9
H A 10 7 6 5
D 9 7
C J 9 6 3
You
West

Pass
Pass
Pass
All Pass
Dummy
North

1 H
2 NT
4 H
Partner
EAST
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Declarer
South
1 D
2 S
4 C1
6 D
S 7 6 5
H K 8
D 10 4 3
C K Q 8 5 2
Table6 D South

Trick
1 W
Lead
C K
2nd
3
3rd
7
4th
4
1. Gerber

Next LeadAwardVotesPercent
D 101013819
C 5722932
D 3613218
S 75345
H K412718
H 83659

South is a bidding machine, forcing to game then driving to slam after finding an ace. Poor North; he could stop the bidding in 1 D or 6 D but nowhere in between. ‘Tis ever thus. Sometimes there is no way to determine if partner has the right cards, so you must guess whether to overbid or underbid. Therefore, I would not conclude that South needed only the H A for slam; more likely, he was hoping for a smidgen more and was disappointed. Been there, done that!

The auction suggests South has six or seven solid diamonds and four strong spades. Further, he could hardly have two fast losers in the unbid suit, so a singleton club is virtually assured. Consider the following likely layout:

Rubber BridgeS 10 9TrickLead2nd3rd4th
Both VulH A 10 7 6 51 WC K374
D 9 72 WC 5?910D 6
C J 9 6 33 SD A372
S 7 6 5TableS J 4 3 24 SS A594
H K 8H J 9 3 25 SS K6102
D 10 4 3D 5 26 SS 87D 93
C K Q 8 5 2C A 10 77 NC 6AD 82
S A K Q 88 SD K4H 55
H Q 49 SD Q10H 6H 2
D A K Q J 8 6continued below…
6 D SouthC 4

South may be strong enough to open 2 C but in my view chose correctly to avoid a clumsy sequence like: 2 C 2 D; 3 D 3 NT; 4 S… help! By opening at the one level, he was able to show spades at a convenient level, and in the end chose to stretch, lest a good slam be missed (e.g., opposite the H K and C A).

Suppose you follow the popular defense and continue clubs. Declarer will ruff, cash one trump, S A-K and ruff a spade, ruff a club, and draw trumps to reach this ending:

D win allSTrickLead2nd3rd4th
H A 10 710 SD JC 8H 7H 3
D11 SS Q?
C JWest is squeezed
STableS J
H K 8H J 9 3
DD
C Q 8C
S Q
H Q 4
D J
South leadsC

On the last trump you have a safe discard, but the S Q seals your fate. Will you surrender quietly, or jump from the moving train?

Alas, you assisted your own demise! Leading a second club was poison. Instead you should have found a plot twist to assist declarer with his demise. After all, every good Hitchcock movie favors murder over suicide, so why be any different?

What about a spade shift instead? No, the S 10-9 in dummy poses another danger. East is likely to have one spade honor, and whether he covers or not, declarer will have an extra entry to dummy. Then he can ruff two clubs on his own, resulting in the same squeeze.

A heart shift is certainly fatal, which leaves only trumps. Careful! A low trump won’t do, as the trick can be won in dummy, allowing two club ruffs as before. The top award goes to the D 10, which can only be won by South. This leaves only one entry to dummy (spade ruff) without touching the H A, so declarer cannot isolate the club threat. Partner, of course, will play low if one club is ruffed.

The winning choice is a standout, as I couldn’t find any layout where another lead defeats the slam and the D 10 doesn’t. If you’re thinking that partner could have D Q-J doubleton, please! Nowhere did I say that Fritz was South. But beware in October!

A distant second goes to the popular C 5, which is superior to other also-rans. For example, holding S A-K-J-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4, declarer cannot ruff two spades (your D 10 scores), and he cannot finesse in spades without removing the H A. Leading the D 3, S 7 or a heart allows declarer to succeed.

The D 3 gets a close third. While losing in my previous examples, it gains over a club in a few cases. For instance, if South has S A-K-x-x H x D A-K-Q-x-x-x-x C 4, a second club leads to a double squeeze after ruffing a spade and another club; while the D 3 (or anything else) defeats the slam. Also, if South bid like a maniac with S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-x-x-x C 4, a club is fatal, while a low diamond is fine.

Fourth place goes to the S 7, which is worse still, creating an extra entry when South has S A-K-Q-x or A-K-J-x. This also reveals the spade lie and allows two finesses when South has S A-K-8-x or A-Q-8-x with 4=1=7=1 shape.

Worst of all is to lead a heart. Take me, I’m yours! Between the H K and H 8, voting preferred the king, which is indeed the lesser of evils. Besides blotting out a stiff queen, the H K defeats this South hand: S A-K-8-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4, while the H 8 lets declarer succeed with a major-suit squeeze.

Extra credit: If you found the defense to defeat 6 D on my example deal, how many points would you score? Let’s see… South would be down one, vulnerable, so 100 points? I would like to agree, but the Master of Suspense insists on plot twists. The answer is zero, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Comments for the D 10

Barry Rigal: Could declarer really have S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x? This time I’ll protect myself against a squeeze.

Rob Stevens: This succeeds when South has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x. The H K will break up the impending double squeeze when South has S A-K-x-x H x D A-K-Q-x-x-x-x C x; but so does the D 10 by preventing declarer from isolating the club menace.

Isolating the club menace is easy… Bar him from the clubhouse.

Jordi Sabate: South has a singleton club. If I play a club or allow two club plays from dummy without using the H A, declarer will eliminate partner’s clubs and squeeze me (if he has H Q-x). Playing the D 10 is the only sure way [to prevent this].

John Lusky: If we can beat this, South must have taken a chance on getting help from partner in hearts or spades. He could have (1) S A-K-Q-J H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, (2) S A-K-8-x H x D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x, or (3) S A-K-J-x H x D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x. The D 10 works against Hand 1 and 2, while a low diamond allows declarer to ruff two clubs and set up a squeeze; but declarer makes on Hand 3 with a spade finesse. The H K obviously fails against Hand 1; succeeds against Hand 2; and gives declarer a losing option to ruff two spades (unless the S Q comes down) on Hand 3 — but declarer should reject that option when the defense does not play to limit spade ruffs.

Jim Munday: South has bid strongly and should hold something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x. Squeeze chances are present, so I must not let declarer isolate the club guard. He has one entry (spade ruff), and I must not give him another. A heart is out, as is a club; a spade creates a second entry (S 10-9) as does a low diamond (D 9). That leaves the D 10

Joon Pahk: If declarer has something like S A-K-8-x H Q D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x, the H K also works; but I don’t want to give away the contract if he has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x.

Julian Wightwick: If South has S A-K-8-4 H Q D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x, a club continuation sets up a double squeeze, as does the D 3 allowing the D 9 entry; and a spade picks up the suit. The H K works but will look foolish if South has solid spades and H Q-x.

Charles Blair: Playing South for S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x.

Steve White: I don’t want declarer to squeeze me in hearts and clubs. This limits him to one club ruff (only one dummy entry outside hearts), so he can’t isolate the threat.

Leonard Helfgott: If I allow declarer two [club ruffs] when he holds S A-K-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-8-x-x-x C x, or S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-8-x-x C x, he will isolate the menace and squeeze me. …

Dean Pokorny: If South has S A-K-8-x H Q D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x, either the H K or D 10 works; but the D 10 is better, because he sometimes will hold an unusual S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x.

Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible South hand: S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4. Leading hearts is obviously wrong; if I lead a black suit or a low trump, declarer is able to ruff two clubs in hand, then I’ll be squeezed in the rounded suits.

Lajos Linczmayer: Declarer’s most likely hand is S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, so I must not give him a 12th trick in hearts or an extra entry to dummy.

Bruce Neill: If declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, a heart at trick two is sudden death; and anything but the D 10 is slow death…

Jean-Christophe Clement: To break the heart-club squeeze if South has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-x-x-x C x.

Imre Csiszar: If declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, he can make 6 D on a heart-club squeeze if he can ruff out partner’s C A while preserving dummy’s H A. The D 10 lead protects against this. Strangely, if South has S A-K-Q-J, a spade lead is just as good.

Perry Groot: A safe exit, which may be necessary if South has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x.

Will Engel: To avoid the ignominy of being squeezed when declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-8-x C x. If I lead a low diamond, declarer has enough dummy entries to get rid of partner’s clubs.

Jonathan Mestel: This time, the heart-club squeeze is on me.

Leif-Erik Stabell: Denies dummy a second entry, in case South has something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4.

Tong Xu: This restricts dummy to one entry (besides the H A), so partner can keep his C A to prevent me from being squeezed.

David Caprera: Preventing declarer (with S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-x-x-x C x) from getting an extra entry to dummy to isolate the club threat.

Jerry Fink: This time, I am the one about to get squeezed in hearts and clubs. Any other lead may give away the position immediately, or create a second dummy entry, enabling declarer to ruff out partner’s C A.

David Lindop: If declarer has something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4, I have to avoid being squeezed in hearts and clubs. The D 10 is necessary to avoid giving declarer two dummy entries to isolate the club menace.

Kauko Koistinen: Declarer’s hand is something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-8-x C x, and he can squeeze me if able to isolate the club guard. [Play explained].

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: I won’t give dummy two entries when declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x

Paulino Correa: South has a singleton club, of course, suppose with S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4. [Losing options explained]. Leading the D 10 does not allow a second dummy entry and destroys the squeeze.

John Reardon: Looks as though the danger is a double squeeze when South has S A-K-x-x H x D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x; however, he may have bid this way with S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x. Either way, the D 10 wins. There’s no way South would have bid like this with S A-K-Q-x-x H x D A-K-x-x-x-x C x, where the D 10 costs.

Okan Ozcan: I think declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, in which case anything but the D 10 allows him to make. [Play described].

Brad Theurer: Declarer should have something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, in which case a rounded-suit squeeze threatens if he can ruff two clubs to isolate the menace. …

Tim DeLaney: South probably has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, or similar. Danger is a heart-club squeeze against me, for which declarer must ruff two clubs to exhaust partner of clubs. [Play described].

Rob Wijman: If declarer has something like S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-8-x C x,…I must not allow him to ruff two clubs lest I become victim to a heart-club squeeze.

Nico Klaver: … If South bid 2 S with S A-K-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x-x C x, either a club continuation or a low diamond leads to a squeeze.

Nigel Guthrie: Hoping to prevent clubs from being ruffed twice for a squeeze.

Bas Oosthoek: To prevent isolating the menace when South has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x.

John Auld: An expert South has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x, or very similar. (Other doubleton hearts make the hand uninteresting.) The D 10 prevents declarer from reaching dummy twice to ruff clubs, then squeezing me.

Franco Chiarugi: South must be very strong to use Gerber after the weak answer of 2 NT — probably close to a 2 C opening: S A-K-J-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x. Leading the [D 3 or S 7] allows me to be squeezed, but the D 10 limits entries to dummy…

Mark Chen: Playing South for S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C x. I need to prevent a second entry to dummy,…else I will be squeezed in hearts and clubs.

Javier Carbonero: Preventing declarer from isolating the club threat.

George Klemic: No free dummy entries!

Roger Sun: If declarer has S A-K-Q-x H Q-x D A-K-Q-J-x-x C 4, this prevents him from eliminating partner’s club guard.

Bill Powell: To prevent declarer from isolating the club menace.

Final Notes

I hope you enjoyed the contest, as well as the memory of perhaps the greatest director of all time. Shadow of a Doubt was Hitchcock’s personal favorite of all his movies, though its critical acclaim was mediocre, at least for Hitchcock. Thanks to all who participated, and especially those who offered kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected only from those scoring 47 or higher (top 232) in this contest or in the prior Overall Top 100 and above average here. On each problem, I only include comments supporting the winning defense, except for some insightful runner-up views on Problems 3 and 4, which were close. This may seem biased, but I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and to avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are off base. Of all the eligible comments, I included about 80 percent. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly, except for corrections in spelling and grammar. If I use only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) shows where text was cut. In some cases I have inserted text [in brackets] to supply an omitted word or phrase, or to summarize a cut portion. Comments appear in the order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing.

I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems (combined with the input of comments) has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

Before leaving, the police need your help to pick the culprit out of this lineup:

Jim Munday: Tough set. I hope my errors will at least constitute reasonable doubt.

Barry Rigal: Hope I haven’t Hitch-cocked up too many of these!

David Lindop: “You see them in the hotels, the best hotels, every day by the thousands, drinking the money, eating the money, losing the money at bridge, playing all day and all night, smelling of money, proud of their jewelry but of nothing else.” -Uncle Charlie

Rob Wijman: I have more than a shadow of a doubt on most of my answers — but hey, what else is new?

Mike Frentz: I don’t think I’ll be getting Vertigo looking down from my perch atop the scores!

Joseph Dimuro: Does this remark even exist, beyond a shadow of a doubt?

Analyses 8Y64 MainChallengeScoresTop Shadow of a Doubt

Acknowledgments to Alfred Hitchcock (1899-1980) and Shadow of a Doubt (1943)
© 2007 Richard Pavlicek