Challenge 8Y57 Main Analyses

Shadow of a Doubt

by Richard Pavlicek

How many things are beyond a shadow of a doubt? Think about it. Does an oak tree really exist? Of course, you say; but how can you be sure? Scientists can only conjecture about the space-time continuum we call the Universe; so why is a tree any different? Maybe an oak tree is just an illusion of our senses. Of course I wouldn’t drive my car into it to find out! But then, I might not even have a car, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Defensive card play evokes a similar mystery. Your next lead often looks obvious; but is it beyond a shadow of a doubt? Perhaps there’s a subtle lead that’s better; or maybe the obvious is right after all. You can’t really be sure, and you can’t rely on partner, because he faces the same troubling question. And for that matter, you might not even have a partner, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Think about the Master of Suspense as you try to master the defense on these six problems. As West, your opening lead and the plays to the first trick are shown. Decide your next lead from the six options, each of which is ranked on a 1-to-10 scale per my judgment.

Bidding is standard (unless noted), and you use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

In August 2007 these problems were presented as a contest with 725 entrants from 108 locations. The contest is closed, but you can still quiz yourself and find your score immediately. If you’re lucky, you may win a valuable prize.*

*Prizes include a bronzed oak tree branch autographed by Alfred Hitchcock, and two Cotten balls preserved in formaldehyde.
Winners must be at least 18 years of age and born before the 20th century. Employees of PavCo Scams are inedible.

Get ready for some suspense! Warm up your leading arm, but think twice before doing the obvious.

Problem 1

Rubber	K 10 6		West	`North`	East	`South`
E-W vul	J 10 7 5 3		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	K 4 2			Pass	2	2
	4 2		3	3	Pass	Pass
A Q 8 3 2			Pass
8 2
J 10
K 9 7 5		3 South

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W J 2 6 7

Your next lead? A Q 3 2 10 5

Problem 2

Rubber	A 10 6 5		West	North	East	South
Both vul	8		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	10 9 8 7					1
	A 10 6 5		1	Dbl	Pass	2
K J 4			2	3	Pass	3 NT
K Q J 9 6 2			Pass	Pass	Pass
Q
K Q 9		3 NT South

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W K 8 3 5

Your next lead? K 4 J Q K 9

Problem 3

Rubber	J 8		West	`North`	East	`South`
E-W vul	A K J		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	J 9 6 4 2			1	Pass	1
	K 8 4		Pass	1 NT	Pass	3
10 9 6 5			Pass	4	Pass	Pass
9 4 3			Pass
A 8
Q J 10 5		4 South

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W Q 4 7 2

Your next lead? 10 5 4 A J 10

Problem 4

Rubber	Q J 9 3		`West`	`North`	`East`	`South`
None vul	5 2		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	A 8 7 6 5			Pass	Pass	1
	K 9		1	Dbl	Pass	1
A 2			2	3	Pass	4
K Q 9 8 7 3			Pass	Pass	Pass
Q J 9 4
4		4 South

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W K 2 10 6

Your next lead? A 2 9 3 Q 4

Problem 5

Rubber	Q 6		`West`	North	`East`	South
N-S vul	A 3 2		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	Q 5 4 3					1
	K Q 9 5		1	2	3 ¹	4
A K 10 9 5 4			Pass	5	Pass	Pass
Q 8 7			Pass
6
J 3 2		5 South	1. weak

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W K 6 8 3

Your next lead? A Q 7 6 J 2

Problem 6

Rubber	10 9		West	North	East	South
Both vul	A 10 7 6 5		You	Dummy	Partner	Declarer
	9 7				Pass	1
	J 9 6 3		Pass	1	Pass	2
7 6 5			Pass	2 NT	Pass	4 ¹
K 8			Pass	4	Pass	6
10 4 3			All Pass
K Q 8 5 2		6 South
			1. Gerber

Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W K 3 7 4

Your next lead? 7 K 8 10 3 5

Click to see how you did

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