Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Who’s On Lead?

Scores  by Richard Pavlicek

Scoring Debate 

Bud: How did you score last month?	Lou: Great! In the last week I had six dates.
No, no. I mean your score in the contest.	I never grade ‘em. They’re all winners to me.
Did you overtake the queen on Number 1?	No, after a little foreplay she called it a night.
Find the squeeze defense on Number 6?	Missed that one too… nothing could stop her.
Forget the misses! Did you get any right?	No… [sigh]… still waiting for Mrs. Right.

Hopefully you’re in better sync with partner than our comedy team, but even two blind defenders will sometimes see the light, if only by the law of averages. With only five inferior choices on each problem, you can’t pick a loser every time — except perhaps in HAL’s case, but he’s now in the history books.

Problem 1

2

3

4

5

6

Final Notes

During the month of February 2007, these six defensive-play problems were published on the Internet as a contest. All bridge players were invited to participate. As East, you were asked to choose your defense from the options listed.

Tim DeLaney Wins!

This contest had 1091 participants from 121 locations, and the average score was 40.83. Congratulations to Tim DeLaney (South Bend, Indiana) who submitted the only perfect score. Tim was a regular participant in my past series, winning in September 2005, and one of few who were consistently top-ranked in both bidding and play. All alone in second with 59 is arch-contender Leif-Erik Stabell (Zimbabwe). Next with 58 are Herb Lavine (New York) and Junyi Zhu (Singapore).

Participation this month was down from the first contest, but that was more or less expected. Defensive play has always scared off some of the cream-puff crowd, though it’s a necessary skill for any serious bridge player, and twice as important as declarer play.* The average score (40.83) was lower than January (42.61) but still above the all-time average (39.66) in past play contests; and 562 persons scored 41 or higher to make the listing. Three of the problems were aced by the consensus, which is better than usual (particularly in defensive play) suggesting an overall rise in card-play skills. One problem (#3) proved to be a photo, with the winning option not as originally intended.

*You will be declarer only about one-fourth of the time, and a defender about half the time — unless you’re like Victor Mollo’s Hideous Hog, whose stats were about the reverse.

Overall standings began this month for those who participated in both January and February. Not surprisingly, Tim DeLaney leads the pack with 59.50, but only by tiebreaker (highest finish) over Leif-Erik Stabell. One point behind at 58.50 are Darek Kardas (Poland) and Jordi Sabate (Spain). Next with 58.00 are Bruce Neill (Australia), Ding-Hwa Hsieh (Missouri) and Dale Freeman (Ontario).

Bidding is standard, and you use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each problem offered six plausible defensive options (A-F). The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which is sometimes influenced by comments received.

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 1

IMPs N-S Vul	Q J 3 J 9 4 2 5 4 K Q 5 3		Who West Pass Pass	No Idea North 2 4	You East Pass All Pass	What SOUTH 1 3
4 South		6 4 Q 7 5 K 10 7 3 J 10 9 6

Trick 1 W

Lead Q

2nd 4

3rd ?

4th 2

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
A. Overtake; lead 4	10	475	44
B. Overtake; lead 5	8	189	17
F. Play the 3	6	52	5
E. Play the 7	5	273	25
C. Overtake; lead 3	4	54	5
D. Overtake; lead J	2	48	4

A few respondents questioned the bidding, particularly South’s old-fashioned game try. Didn’t know what shape to expect, huh? Welcome to the tough game. Since my recent diamond strike, I now pay my opponents to use help-suit game tries, and I triple the amount for Costello (short-suit) tries, as their primary feature is to pinpoint the defense. Mama-papa game tries (1-2-3) may be less accurate, but this is more than offset by their lack of disclosure.*

*This is not to say it is the best method. Greater accuracy can be achieved without disclosure by an asking method (closed hand asks, dummy answers). Though not applicable to these contests, I devised a method called the Relay Major-Suit Game Try.

This is the kind of situation in which most defenders are lazy, routinely signaling with the 7 (Option E) and giving little thought to taking an active role. Presented as a problem, the winning defense emerged (congrats team), but I wonder how many would overtake at the table. It is easy to resign yourself to a simple play when South is marked with the A. Why do anything out of the ordinary? Tempo and position! In this common holdup situation, declarer will relish the opportunity to keep West on lead. Overtaking is safe barring a silly lead from Q-x, and even if you can’t do anything effective, you will at least cause some discomfort. Consider the following layout:

IMPs	Q J 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	J 9 4 2		1 W	Q	4	7?	2
	5 4		2 W	6	5	K	A
	K Q 5 3		3 S	2	7	K	6
K 7 2		6 4	4 N	2	5	A	3
10 6 3		Q 7 5	5 S	4	A	3	9
Q J 9 6		K 10 7 3	Declarer succeeds
A 8 7		J 10 9 6
	A 10 9 8 5
	A K 8
	A 8 2
4 South	4 2

Suppose you signal with the 7, and partner routinely continues. Declarer wins the A and leads a club, ducked (best) to the king; then a heart to hand and another club, taken by the ace. No matter what West does next, declarer can ruff a diamond in dummy and pitch his heart loser on the Q. What’s the problem? Easy hand.

Now watch what happens if you become active. Overtaking at trick one makes the situation uncomfortable for declarer. He will probably still duck* as stipulated in the conditions, and you shift to a trump (Option A) ducked to West’s king. Declarer wins the trump return in hand but can’t do everything. If he leads a club immediately, West hops with the ace to clear trumps. If he ruffs his diamond, West can win the second club to prevent the heart pitch.

*Declarer can succeed at double-dummy: Win the first trick and lead a club (ducked) to the king; exit with a diamond, won by the 10; East leads a spade to West’s king; win the spade return in hand; ruff a diamond; lead the J (covered) to transfer the stopper; then run trumps to strip-squeeze West. That’s exactly how I’d play it — in my audition for Abbott and Costello Meet Frankenstein.

A case can also be made to overtake and shift to a heart (Option B), as it may be necessary to force declarer to guess hearts if he holds A-K-x-x-x-x K-x A-x-x x-x. True, but then it seems declarer would win the first trick and lead a club, making the defense more difficult, as well as to locate the A before facing a heart guess.

Another case for Option B is to establish a heart trick before declarer can knock out the A; e.g., if South has A-10-9-x-x-x A-x A-x-x x-x, a heart shift is necessary, though partner could also do so if you ducked. This would be a viable alternative, except that in most such layouts West has a routine double of 1  (e.g., K-x K-10-x-x Q-J-9-x A-x-x), particularly at the vulnerability. Thus, the diagrammed layout is far more realistic*, and Option B must settle for second place.

*Some might counter that South would open 1 NT with five spades and a balanced hand — certainly true if he held the A (in which case the contract is probably unbeatable) — but I strongly disagree. Few experts would open 1 NT with five spades and x-x (deranged in my view). The default system doesn’t stipulate when to open 1 NT with a five-card major, as it’s mostly a matter of judgment, though I have expressed my opinion in the past.

Third place goes to discouraging a diamond continuation (Option F), as it suggests a heart honor and opens the door for partner to shift to a heart if necessary, or perhaps trumps without the K. If you’re not going to be active, it seems better to give partner more leeway to exercise judgment, rather than request a diamond continuation. Thus, Option E must settle for fourth place — though it’s still better than overtaking and continuing diamonds yourself (Option C), since partner may judge to shift anyway.

Last and surely worst is to overtake and lead a club (Option D) as it seems to be playing for the wrong side. I suppose there’s some merit in the shock factor; i.e., partner and declarer will briefly think you have a singleton, before concluding you’re nuts. A club shift wouldn’t be so bad if South held the A, attacking communication; but indications are that West has that card, particularly if there is a chance to set the contract.

Comments for A. Overtake; lead 4

Tim DeLaney: If South has 10-x-x-x-x A-K-x A-x-x A-x, I need to play three rounds of trumps to erase the diamond ruff. Also, if South has K-x-x-x-x-x K-x A-x A-x-x and starts trumps himself, I don’t want partner to duck (he might if he thought I could have a stiff king).

Leif-Erik Stabell: Hoping partner has K-10-8 A-10-6-3 Q-J-9 7-4-2, in which case declarer has no chance; but even with weaker spades in partner’s hand, declarer might go wrong.

Junyi Zhu: I hope South has something like A-x-x-x-x A-K-x A-x-x x-x. Declarer can either ruff a diamond or get two club tricks, but not both. Failure to lead a trump on this bidding sequence also suggests that partner may have strength in trumps.

Jordi Sabate: I hope declarer has some diamond and heart losers. Our best defense may be to lead trumps every time.

Eugene Dille: I need to get rid of dummy’s entries, e.g., if South has A-8-7-5-2 A-K-6 A-9-2 8-7.

Zoran Bohacek: This will help partner make the right continuation.

Adrian Barna: Breaking communication; declarer will not be able to play clubs twice toward dummy and ruff a diamond.

Jerry Fink: A pair of diamond ruffs are ominous; but why did South duck? I suppose partner’s spades are K-10-x.

John Lusky: If partner has something like 10-8-x K-10-x Q-J-9-x A-x-x, I need to lead a trump from my side either to stop the diamond ruff or to effect a trump promotion.

John makes a good point. Declarer must win the A and lead a club (ducked); cross to A; club to ace; trump to dummy; Q to pitch a heart; then the last club is led from dummy. Declarer can succeed if he pitches his remaining low heart, but this would fail if East held the remaining trump; so he has to guess. -RP

Perry Groot: I’ll play West for something like K-10-x 10-x-x Q-J-x-x A-x-x. South can’t win the A and ruff a diamond without giving up a trick in spades. After two rounds of spades, West will either be able to play a third spade (killing the diamond ruff) or stop a second club trick by holding up the ace one round.

Toby Kenney: This is necessary if declarer has A-10-x-x-x A-K-x A-x-x x-x. If declarer takes his diamond ruff before we draw trumps, he has no entry to dummy [to pitch his heart loser].

D.C. Lin: When in doubt, lead trumps!

Gerald Murphy: I’ll play partner for the K and A-10.

Alan Schwartz: We can’t lead a second round of hearts [if South has A-x-x], so I might as well play to limit diamond ruffs.

Gerald Cohen: Trumps look safest and best, and the lead should come from my side.

Lajos Linczmayer: I overtake, as I want to be on lead. This play is required if South has A-9-7-5-2 K-x A-8-6-2 A-x. After winning the K, partner switches to clubs; if not I’ll be squeezed in three suits.

Another cute layout, and all true; though it may be asking a lot from partner. I’d better reread “Natural Therapy for Defense Disorders” — for those unaware, an excellent book by Lajos — before planning a trip to Hungary. -RP

Roland Voigt: There is probably no point in playing clubs; and returning a heart can easily cost a trick, since declarer must have some heart values. Looking at dummy’s short diamonds, a trump shift seems reasonable and might be the winning move if declarer…held up with A-x-x-x-x A-K-x A-x-x x-x.

Chuck Lamprey: This defense doesn’t seem to cost, and it may make declarer’s road more difficult, [especially] if he has four diamonds.

Bill Powell: Trying to disrupt communication.

Rob Wijman: Trying to prevent two diamonds ruffs in dummy. …

N. Scott Cardell: I need to stop two diamond ruffs in dummy if South has something like A-10-8-x-x K-x A-x-x-x A-x, or A-10-8-x-x K A-x-x-x A-x-x.

Do I hear Gypsy music? Or Eva Gabor, darling? No! It’s the sound of Lajos being squeezed.

Travis Crump: I can’t stop the diamond ruff, but hopefully I can force declarer to take it before the second club is established. I’ll play South for A-x-x-x-x A-K-x A-x-x x-x.

Richard Stein: Neither of dummy’s side suits looks especially threatening as a source of tricks, so it looks like we have to stop diamond ruffs in dummy.

Marvin Levine: I won’t break hearts; if partner has the A, we’ll [probably] get two heart tricks. A spade lead helps if partner started with three diamonds (Q-J-9), and he might also have the K among his 10 HCP [or so] which will cut down on declarer’s trumping diamonds.

Dirk Enthoven: This may be unrewarding, as declarer probably has six spades (no help-suit game try), but I’ll let partner get his K and return a spade. A heart lead is dangerous, as declarer may let it run to the jack.

Ari Eisenberg: Timing is everything. I have to get rid of [dummy’s] trumps, and I hope partner has A-x-x or K-x-x…

Arpan Banerjee: South should have the A and a total of 15-16 HCP, giving partner 9-10… Possible defensive tricks are one diamond, one club, and two hearts (or one heart and one spade). Cutting down dummy ruffs may be effective, as declarer’s losers are [probably] not running away.

Nutescu Bogdan: Partner [probably] has a maximum of 10 HCP; if this includes the A or K, we may limit declarer to one diamond ruff.

Frans Buijsen: If South has A-10-x-x-x K-x A-x-x-x A-x, I need to stop him from ruffing two diamonds in dummy.

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 2

IMPs Both Vul	K 10 4 K J 9 7 K 9 7 6 J 5		Who West Pass All Pass	No Idea North 3 1	You EAST 1 Dbl	What South 1 3
3 South		Q 9 3 2 A Q 4 A K 10 8 6 4

Trick 1 W

Lead Q

2nd 5

3rd ?

4th 2

1. 4-card limit raise

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Play the 10	10	157	14
E. Play the 8	9	57	5
F. Play the 4	6	609	56
C. Overtake; win A	4	196	18
B. Overtake; lead 2	2	35	3
A. Overtake; lead 3	1	37	3

Partner’s lead marks South with three clubs (maybe four), so you are sure to win two club tricks. Together with your two diamond tricks poised behind dummy, declarer is booked; so you need one more trick. This could come from spades if partner has the J; diamonds if partner has J-10-x; or even trumps if partner has Q-x-x and declare fails to guess it.

When partner leads a suit in which you have shown 5+ cards (here from the double* of 3 , not your opening), default agreements are to encourage with a middle card, reserving high and low for suit preference. First instincts would be to play your lowest club to request a diamond shift, but a closer look shows that your diamond tricks won’t go away — except in the rare event South holds A-J A-Q-x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x. An early spade shift, however, may be a dire necessity when partner has the J, as in the diagrammed deal that follows.

*Some experts define the double of a cue-bid of your suit as takeout, but this is nonstandard. The default system (like most textbooks) provides no special definition for such a double, so the logical meaning, “I’ve got more in this suit than already shown,” must apply.

IMPs	K 10 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	K J 9 7		1 W	Q	5	10!	2
	K 9 7 6		2 W	2	4	9	A
	J 5		Declarer fails
J 7 5 2		Q 9 3
8 4 3		2
J 10 8 3		A Q 4
Q 7		A K 10 8 6 4
	A 8 6
	A Q 10 6 5
	5 2
3 South	9 3 2

If partner fails to lead a spade at trick two, declarer will develop a diamond trick by ruffing out your ace (he knows you have it) to pitch his spade loser. Therefore, you should signal with the 10* (Option D) to ask for a spade switch. If it turns out that declarer has A-J-x, nothing is lost, as you weren’t going to make a spade trick anyway.

*Some respondents assumed the 10 would be suit preference without special agreement, since you would overtake if you wanted clubs continued. Not true, as partner doesn’t know you have A-K. You could be making a standard signal from K-10-9-8-x-x, with declarer holding up the ace. Thus, suit preference applies only because of default system agreements.

It appears you can effect the same defeat by overtaking and returning the 3 (Option A) to the jack and king; then when declarer leads a diamond, partner will play an honor to hold the lead (if declarer covers with the K, there is nothing to establish) and return a spade through dummy’s 10. True if thus played, but declarer has a stronger line: Concede a club (optionally after drawing one or two trumps), ruff the club loser, then run trumps to reach 10-4 K-9 opposite A-8 5-2. If East keeps Q-9 A-x (cleverly unblocking the Q), cash the A and exit with a spade. If he keeps Q-9 A and a good club, exit with a diamond.

Second place goes to playing the 8 (Option E), and despite my disdain for wishy-washy signals*, I feel obliged to make it a close second. Partner should read the eight as high (rather than middle) because you may hold A-K-8-6-4-2 (or maybe only five clubs). Consider this your lucky day to get 9.

*My students will affirm. I once had a lady who insisted on giving count with the five from 10-6-5-2 and continually argued about not wasting the six. She is now breeding mules on the island of Borneo. Need I say more?

Third place goes to playing the 4 (Option F). As mentioned previously, an immediate diamond shift could be necessary, albeit unlikely, and this is the only defense to suggest it. The massive vote for Option F surely indicates that most respondents followed their first impression, perhaps too anxious to win tricks. We all do this sometimes; it’s hard to be patient.

Overtaking partner’s lead is clearly inferior, as it gives up the opportunity for a beneficial shift. Cashing a second club (Option C) is surely the least of evils. A trump shift (Option B) accomplishes nothing and might pick off partner’s Q-x-x. Worst of all is to lead a spade (Option A), which is the only defense to let declarer succeed with A-x A-Q-x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x.

Comments for D. Play the 10

Tim DeLaney: Suit preference; I need a spade shift to beat the contract if South has something like A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x. I could be wrong if South has A-J A-Q-x-x-x 8-x-x x-x-x, but that holding is much less likely a priori.

Herb Lavine: Partner, please have the J and switch to spades.

Junyi Zhu: To signal for a spade switch before declarer establishes the diamond suit. …

Dale Freeman: I want a spade through… If partner has the J, we might get a needed spade trick.

Jordi Sabate: We have four tricks in the minors, and I think the best shot for a fifth is for West to have the J and South three spades. Spades must be led by West, so I play the 10 to ask for that suit.

Eugene Dille: I hope partner takes this as suit preference for spades — and I also hope he has the J.

Zoran Bohacek: I need spade shift now.

Bruce Neill: Asking for a spade. If partner has J-x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x-x Q-x, this is the only chance for him to lead through dummy’s 10.

Adrian Barna: Asking for a spade switch, and hoping partner has the J. (I cannot lead spades twice from my side.)

Jerry Fink: Best guess is that we need a spade trick to set this contract; and that won’t happen unless partner holds the J, and I tell him to shift to a small spade at trick two. By the way, what is the signal for partner to tell me about the J when declarer calls for a small diamond from dummy?

Easy. In the old days I would point to my ring finger. Now I can just tip my PavCo miner’s cap.

John Lusky: We are much more likely to need a spade shift than a diamond shift, e.g., if partner has J-x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x-x Q-x. A diamond shift could be necessary if partner has x-x-x-x-x x-x-x J-10-x Q-x, but this hand is much less likely…

Rainer Herrmann: Asking for a spade switch. Diamond tricks can hardly disappear.

Imre Csiszar: Requesting a spade shift to prevent declarer’s spade discard on the K if West has the J and South is 3=5=2=3. Sure, this helps declarer if he has the J, but it is unlikely to let 3  make when it could be set, unless West has exactly J-10-x.

Jarek Gasior: Lavinthal for spades, I hope. Diamonds can wait.

Toby Kenney: I believe this asks for a spade switch, which is necessary if declarer has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x.

D.C. Lin: To allow for the case in which partner has J-x-x-x, and South: A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x.

Charles Blair: “There is nothing in all of bridge quite so infuriating as to give partner a high card to tell him to continue, and then to see the wise look in his eye and the knowing smile on his lips as he shifts to a high-ranking suit.” -Edgar Kaplan

Gerald Cohen: Looks like our best shot is for partner to lead spades from his side…

John Reardon: The best chance seems to be to win one spade, two diamonds and two clubs. If South has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x, partner must switch to a low spade now, so I play the 10 to alert him.

Nigel Guthrie: I hope South has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: A clear signal… I need a spade switch when partner has J-x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x-x Q-x.

Lajos Linczmayer: To defeat the contract, South must have either x-x-x or A-x-x. I’ll give suit preference for spades.

Steve White: Best chance for a fifth trick is in spades, partner holding J-x-x-x; but I need partner to attack the suit.

Johnny Utah: Suit preference… I can [probably] take A-Q, together with two clubs, so I’m trying to take one spade trick.

Julian Pottage: I hope partner reads this as suit preference; I want to set up a spade trick before declarer sets up a diamond.

Dean Pokorny: Signaling for a spade switch, which is essential if partner has something like J-8-x-x x-x-x 10-x-x-x Q-x.

Todd Anderson: If South has two diamonds, I need to [develop] a spade trick before diamonds are established for a spade pitch; therefore, I call for a spade lead now. If declarer has three diamonds,…our defense is [unlikely] to matter.

Barry White: South may hold A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x x-x x-x-x, so we may need to get spades started. If the nine forces the ace, I will lead the Q next time.

Paulino Correa: To beat the contract, partner should have Q-x and the J, and he will have to lead a small spade. I hope he understands my 10 as a hint to that.

Rob Stevens: Does the 10 ask for a switch to the higher ranking suit? I think so… Best chance to beat the contract is to find South with A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x, or similar.

Roger Webb: Best chance for a fifth trick is for partner to have the J, and this is his last chance to be on lead. …

Roland Voigt: It might be essential to get a spade lead from partner, in case South holds A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x x-x x-x-x, before my A can be ruffed out for a spade discard.

Eric Leong: We need to establish a spade trick before declarer ruffs out my A, if he has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x x-x x-x-x.

David Caprera: Low from odd, third from even. :) My best attempt to get a spade switch if declarer has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x x-x x-x-x.

Chris Willenken: My defense [probably] only matters when declarer holds A-x-x and a doubleton diamond. Then we need to establish our spade trick before it goes away on the K.

David Kenward: Best chance is that partner has J-x-x-x, and we can set up a spade trick. The problem with attacking spades from my side is that declarer, holding A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x 10-x x-x-x, can play a partial elimination and throw me in with Q. This can be avoided if the first spade lead comes from partner; hence the 10 at trick one. …

Jim Munday: Playing for declarer to hold A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-10 x-x-x. We need to get spades going, and I need partner to lead them now. …

Julian Wightwick: I hope partner has the J, and that he reads this as a request for a spade switch. This is more likely than hoping for J-10-x.

Dmitri Shabes: It seems that our defense doesn’t matter, unless declarer has something like A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x; then I want a spade switch. In the unlikely event declarer has four diamonds, I’ll blame partner for not switching to a diamond.

Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible South hand: A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x 9-7-3. Partner must lead a low spade, which I suggest by playing the 10.

Bill Powell: I think 3 is making if South has the J, so I’ll try to get partner to lead from J-x-x-x before declarer can get a spade away on K.

Rob Wijman: Partner might just have the J, so we may need to establish a spade trick before declarer has a discard on the K.

Brad Theurer: Dummy’s diamonds represent a threat. This should be suit preference for spades, and I need partner to have the J and a shift from his side; South holding, say, A-x-x A-Q-10-x-x J-10 x-x-x.

Branislav Protega: I want a spade switch, and hopefully the J to be in partner’s hand.

Thijs Veugen: If South has A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x, we need a spade shift now.

Roefi Vilier: I would like partner to lead a spade from his assumed jack.

David Lindop: Hopefully, partner will read this as suit preference… A spade switch by partner is necessary if South has something like A-x-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x x-x-x. I’ll be careful to lead the Q after winning the second club, so I don’t get endplayed…

Neelotpal Sahai: Assuming we can win A-K and A-Q, our fifth trick has to come from spades, and the suit pips are such that it has to be opened by partner. The  Q is the last chance when partner is on lead, so I signal vehemently for a spade shift; giving South a hand like A-8-x A-Q-x-x-x J-x 9-x-x.

Comments for E. Play the 8

Leif-Erik Stabell: I would like a spade from partner with J-x-x-x x-x-x 10-x-x-x Q-x; but I will not play the 10 to demand a spade, as a diamond is required if he has x-x-x-x-x x-x-x J-10-x Q-x. (He would probably obey my signal with this hand, playing me for A-Q-x x A-x-x-x A-K-10-x-x.) I hope partner will do the right thing, even though he might not be able to tell whether the eight is a [middle] or big club.

Debbie Cohen: The 8 tells partner to lead a diamond with x-x or J-10-x, or to lead a spade with J-x-x-x or J-x-x.

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 3

IMPs None Vul	8 4 Q 5 3 10 4 2 A K 10 5 2		Who West Pass	No Idea North 3 NT	You EAST 2 All Pass	What South 2 NT
3 NT South		A Q 10 7 6 2 8 7 J 7 J 8 3

Trick 1 W

Lead J

2nd 4

3rd ?

4th 5

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
E. Play the 7	10	373	34
A. Overtake; win A	9	200	18
D. Overtake; lead J	6	199	18
C. Overtake; lead 8	5	173	16
F. Play the 2	3	70	6
B. Overtake; lead 10	2	76	7

It looks like South has landed in the perfect contract. Prospects seem bleak with your entryless hand, as declarer is marked with three spades (possibly four), and a routine holdup with the K will shut out your long spades. Perhaps you should overtake with the Q and switch to a red suit. Alas, this requires a miracle — indeed, as I couldn’t come up with any layout consistent with the bidding* where this would defeat the contract.

*Assuming South has 16-19 HCP per system guidelines, or possibly 15 HCP compensated by a five-card suit.

But wait! Your hand may have an entry after all. The only realistic hope to set the contract is for partner to have the Q, in which case your jack prevents declarer from running the suit. Consider a plausible layout:

IMPs	8 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	Q 5 3		1 W	J	4	7	5
	10 4 2		2 W	3	8	A	9
	A K 10 5 2		3 E	2!	K	Q!	3
J 3		A Q 10 7 6 2	Declarer fails
J 10 9 6 4		8 7
Q 9 8 6		J 7
Q 6		J 8 3
	K 9 5
	A K 2
	A K 5 3
3 NT South	9 7 4

Suppose you signal with the 7 (Option E) and South ducks. West continues with the 3 to your ace, then a third round clears the suit. Further, you should lead the 2 (suit preference) to indicate a club entry, and West must pitch the Q to get out of your way. (An expert partner would do this routinely with Q-x, but your guiding light would be crucial if he had Q-x-x.) Declarer has eight top tricks, but there is no way to make a ninth without developing the club suit. Note that you can’t be thrown in for a club lead, since declarer has no more spades.

Deciding the winner on this problem was a photo, as either Option A (overtake) or Option E (encouraging signal) works fine when partner has two spades. When composing the problem, I thought Option A would be better, as leaving partner on lead could suffer immediate consequences if partner has no more spades and shifts to a red suit. Alas, a deeper study produced no layout that would cost the contract; only an occasional overtrick. Further, overtaking could also yield an overtrick if declarer wins* (with K-9-x-x), strips your red suits, runs clubs, and exits with a spade to force a second spade trick. Considering that the latter danger is outright, and that partner might have a safe exit, Option E deserves the edge. It’s also refreshing that a mundane play can be the winner once in a while — at least more respondents will be pleased.

*Even though my problem stipulates that South ducks the first trick, this is not a precondition but to allow your next play to be chosen from all available information. Conditions emulate actual play, so volunteered information is authorized only when it would be known at the table. Therefore, any listed option is liable to whatever might happen after.

Other plays offer no realistic hope to beat the contract, and can only be judged by their overtrick allowance. Third place is a close call between shifting to a heart (Option C) or a diamond (Option D); with no convincing evidence either way, they’re ranked by the voting. Worse yet is to signal with the 2 (Option F) to ask partner to lead a diamond* — pretty silly, but I guess there’s a chance partner will continue spades anyway, fearing you couldn’t spare a higher card (e.g., K-Q-10-9-2) if the jack were singleton.

*Having shown 5+ spades in the bidding, a middle card encourages; high and low are suit preference. In view of dummy, clubs should be ruled out, so a low spade asks for diamonds.

Last and surely worst is to overtake and return the 10 (Option B), but I must admit it fits well in the Abbott and Costello theme. Who knows? Declarer might pull the wrong card and lose the first six tricks. I can almost picture Lou tossing his cards carelessly and not realizing what happened. Hey Abbot-t-t-t… I thought I had a stopper!

Comments for E. Play the 7

Tim DeLaney: Both the Q and 7 accomplish the same thing when partner has a doubleton. There is zero chance that partner will switch if his J wins the trick, especially when I encourage with the seven. … When partner continues spades, I will win the ace and lead the 2; then he will jettison the Q. The  7 gains by forcing declarer to play safe when he holds K-9-x-x A-K-J-x A-Q x-x-x; he dare not win the K (resulting in 11 tricks) because I might have A-Q-10-x-x-x x-x x-x Q-J-x, and defeat the contract. If I overtake with the Q, he can safely win the K because his 9 is a second stopper. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: I plan to play the A and 2 next, expecting partner to unblock the Q if he has it. If partner has no more spades (e.g., J 10-9-x-x-x K-Q-9-x Q-x-x), I cannot overtake, as South might guess to duck the J (right if I were 6=3=1=3 or diamonds are blocked), then a small diamond at trick two defeats 3 NT.

Jerry Fink: What would be sweet is to take the Q, then the ace, and lead the two to tell partner to jettison the Q. But what if partner has a singleton J, K-Q-x-x-x and Q-x-x? … In that case I have to signal partner to continue spades; and if he can’t, hope he finds the brilliant lead of a small diamond to my jack. Then I can do the spade thing, and partner the Q jettison.

John Lusky: The best chance is for partner to be able to jettison the Q on the third spade, if he has something like J-x x-x-x-x-x Q-9-x-x Q-x. Either Option A or E accommodates this; however, if partner has something like J 10-x-x-x-x K-Q-9-x Q-x-x, Option A makes it easy for declarer to win at trick one, while Option E makes him guess whether I might have a five-card spade suit [or Q-x-x]. If he misguesses and ducks, partner can shift to a low diamond with good effect. …

Leif-Erik, Jerry and John make a valid point, though it gives South a dubious bid in the system (a barren 15 HCP when showing 16-19). Some experts would overcall 2 NT with K-9-x-x A-K-J A-8-x-x x-x, but I think pass is the percentage call. Trust me; I used to be a 2 NT bidder. -RP

Gerald Murphy: … I want partner to continue spades, then ace and the 2 back will indicate an entry in clubs. Hopefully, partner will discard his Q, then declarer can no longer set up clubs since I have the entry.

Gerald Cohen: Only easy one. If partner has one spade, there is no chance. Assuming the expected doubleton, I will win and lead the 2 for partner to dump the Q.

Roland Voigt: Three notrump can be defeated if partner has the Q and another spade; declarer has to duck, then two more rounds of spades give partner the chance to discard the Q, killing dummy’s clubs. Option A seems to work as well, but there are some layouts where overtaking gives away the contract; e.g., if South has made an off-shape overcall with K-9-x-x A-K-x-x K-Q-x-x x.

Marvin Levine: Encouraging partner to continue. … If declarer started with K-x-x, he can hold up; but I still may have an entry in clubs if partner has the Q [and pitches it]. If I overtake the J, declarer may get two spade tricks if he has K-9-x-x.

Ari Eisenberg: If partner has a stiff jack, overtaking [may] give declarer a second spade trick. …

Comments for A. Overtake; win A

Herb Lavine: Partner must throw the Q. South may have K-x-x A-K-x-x A-K-x-x x-x.

Junyi Zhu: Seems the only hope is that clubs don’t run. I plan to play a third spade so partner can unblock the Q.

Dale Freeman: I’ll play partner for the Q and continue with the 2, hoping he gets the message to get rid of it.

Jordi Sabate: I need partner to have J-x and the Q. Next I play the 2, hoping he will discard the Q.

Eugene Dille: I hope partner has the Q and will discard it on the third spade to set up my J as an entry. Partner needs two spades to make it work.

Bruce Neill: One plan is to overtake the J and switch to hearts, hoping partner has A-J-10-x-x; but declarer should realize what’s happening and play his K on the first heart to break our communication. So I’ll hope partner has the Q and realizes to unblock it when I lead the 2. Playing the 7 also asks for a spade continuation, but this is more emphatic.

True, but slapping down the 7 with a steely glare and reaching for a handgun works well enough for me.

Adrian Barna: Overtaking, winning A and leading 2. Only chance I see is that partner has two spades and will unblock the Q on the third round of spades.

Rainer Herrmann: Hopefully, the Q will appear on the 2.

Imre Csiszar: For a reasonable chance to defeat 3 NT, partner has to hold the Q. Then the 2 continuation lets partner shine, discarding the Q to kill dummy’s suit.

Grant Peacock: I am going to play three rounds of spades so partner can discard his Q. The question is how to make this clear to him; I think this line is more communicative.

Perry Groot: Looks like the only chance is if declarer needs club tricks, lacks the Q, and has at most three spades. Then after three rounds of spades, partner can throw the Q to create an entry for me — else declarer could lead clubs twice through West, ducking when the queen appears.

Jarek Gasior: Next continue with the 2, with the moment of truth coming. Congrats, partner!

Toby Kenney: Partner is clever, so he’ll discard the Q on the third spade (I’ll lead the 2 as suit preference).

D.C. Lin: Then the 2 for partner to shine and receive all the applause by dropping the Q. How unfair!

Charles Blair: My brilliant partner will have no difficulty discarding the Q.

Terry Henry: I will continue with a third round of spades to let partner pitch the Q, playing for South to have K-9-x A-K-x-x A-K-x-x x-x.

John Reardon: The best chance may be that South has something like K-x-x K-x-x A-K-Q-x x-x-x, in which case I will continue with the 2 to tell partner to jettison the Q.

Jonathan Mestel: Then the 2. Partner may get the glory, but we share the IMPs.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: I continue with the 2 to signal a club entry, so partner can discard the Q when South has K-x-x A-K-x A-K-x-x x-x-x. Otherwise, declarer could lead clubs twice from hand and duck the queen.

Lajos Linczmayer: I guess South has K-x-x A-K-x A-K-x-x x-x-x. On the 2 partner pitches the Q.

Steve White: Best chance is for partner to have J-x and the Q; if declarer ducks the first round, partner can unblock his Q. Encouraging with the 7 is equally good if partner continues, and at least as good if his jack is singleton; but encouragement is not a command. Chances are so poor if partner has a singleton spade that overtaking is justified.

Johnny Utah: Then I will play the 2 for partner to throw the Q if he has it.

Dean Pokorny: Intending to follow with 2, inducing partner to throw away the Q.

Wei Victor Zhang: I hope partner will discard the Q on the third spade.

Barry White: Next I lead the 2. If South holds K-x-x A-K-x A-K-x-x x-x-x, partner can pitch the Q…

Eric Leong: Chances of setting 3 NT are dim if the club suit runs, so I must assume…South has something like K-x-x A-K-x-x A-K-x-x x-x, and partner will be aware enough to pitch his Q…on my spade continuation…

David Caprera: Assuming partner follows, I will play the 2 to get the Q unblock. I can’t see how we can beat 3 NT with three red-suit tricks. I overtake the first spade so that partner doesn’t screw up.

Chris Willenken: If declarer has at least 15 HCP, he has nine easy tricks unless partner has the Q. So I overtake to force a duck from declarer, cash the A, and exit with the 2, hoping partner gets the message to discard the Q.

David Kenward: Hopefully, partner has two spades; then I continue with the 2, which should prompt him to discard the Q. I think this is better than Option E in case partner happens to hold only one spade. I remember seeing a hand similar to this, where West discarded the Q from Q-J-x-x to throw declarer off the scent.

Jim Munday: Our best chance is that partner has J-x and the Q. I will return the 2, and partner should get the message to get the Q out of the way.

Julian Wightwick: Then the 2, so partner can pitch his Q. I bet partner gets the credit for this one.

Dmitri Shabes: I don’t think we stand a chance if declarer has the Q, so I lead three rounds of spades (assuming J-x in partner’s hand) and pray for partner to remember this is a problem hand and be alert enough to jettison the Q.

Chuck Lamprey: If partner follows to the second spade, I’ll continue with the 2, hoping partner can contribute the Q.

Manuel Paulo: Consider these possible South’s hands: K-9-5 A-K-J A-K-8-x x-x-x, and K-9-5 A-K-10-x A-Q-9 x-x-x. I next lead the 2 and trust partner to pitch the Q.

Linda Lubeck: If declarer has only three spades, I lead the 2 to entice partner to ditch his Q.

Bill Powell: Then the 2 for partner to unblock the Q.

Rob Wijman: Then continue with the 2, hoping partner holds the Q and has the inspiration to unblock her.

Alon Amsel: Leading the 2 next, so partner can unblock his Q.

Paul Inbona: If the J is a singleton, I may get a valuable discard from partner.

Brad Theurer: Things look bleak unless partner has the Q. This way I can get him to unblock it on the third spade, then hope he has enough in the red suits to stop nine tricks; e.g., if South has K-x-x A-K-x A-K-x-x x-x-x.

Richard Stein: Obviously, I need clubs not ready to go (West to hold the Q). [Assuming South has only three spades], I lead a third round, on which partner jettisons his Q. This will lead to defeat unless South already has nine tricks.

Thijs Veugen: If South has K-x-x A-K-x-x A-K-x-x x-x, I have to play a third spade so West can discard his Q.

Martin Kane: Go on, partner, discard the Q! The 7 is a better switch than the J.

Roefi Vilier: Playing South for something like K-x-x A-K-x A-K-x-x x-x-x; on the next spade partner will discard the Q. This only needs partner to have the Q, while a heart switch will need [at least] A-J-9-x.

Frans Buijsen: Playing partner for J-x x-x-x-x-x K-9-x-x Q-x, where declarer needs the club suit. I will [show] my J entry by continuing with the 2.

Guven Dalkilic: Then I will play the 2 for partner to throw away the Q.

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 4

IMPs E-W Vul	K Q 9 4 K 8 6 2 A 8 5 10 4		Who West Pass All Pass	No Idea NORTH 1 2	You East Pass Pass	What South 1 4
4 South		7 6 A Q 9 Q 9 7 4 K J 9 3

Trick 1 W

Lead J

2nd 2

3rd ?

4th 4

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Overtake; lead Q	10	50	5
F. Play the 9	9	456	42
C. Overtake; lead 9	8	175	16
D. Overtake; lead 4	6	77	7
E. Overtake; lead J	5	278	25
A. Overtake; lead 6	2	55	5

Partner’s lead with the K in dummy looks like a sweet start for the defense, but in fact it’s a boon for declarer. Your heart tricks aren’t going anywhere (barring rare layouts), and the end result will be to establish the K in dummy, perhaps declarer’s 10th trick. You must look to the minor suits to develop a trick before declarer can benefit.

Analysis of the heart spots indicates that partner has at most three; probably J-10-x, but possibly J-10 alone.* This deduction is based on strategy supported by almost all references, that the jack should not be led from J-10-x-x without the nine or eight; hence, with those two cards in view, partner is not leading a long suit. This means you have three heart tricks due, so only one more trick is needed from a minor suit to defeat the contract.

*If partner held J-x (no 10), declarer would surely cover, as the loss of three heart tricks is inevitable; and failure to force the defensive ruff could cost the contract, e.g., if South held A-J-x-x-x 10-x-x-x x A-Q-x, and the lead were a singleton with trumps 4-0 (note that if South held four hearts he should also have five spades from the bidding).

With the apparent need to switch to a minor, it remains to decide which and by whom. Partner might have the Q, in which case a club shift may be necessary; or he might have the J (or the K albeit remote), where a diamond shift is needed. The main factor in deciding is tempo; a club shift can wait, but a diamond shift is urgent. Further, a club shift is only necessary if South holds A-x (or rarely A-x-x with K-J doubleton), as otherwise declarer cannot avoid a club loser. Consider the following layout:

IMPs	K Q 9 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	K 8 6 2		1 W	J	2	Q!	4
	A 8 5		2 E	Q!
	10 4		Declarer is likely to fail
10 5 3		7 6
J 10 5		A Q 9
J 6 2		Q 9 7 4
8 7 5 2		K J 9 3
	A J 8 2
	7 4 3
	K 10 3
4 South	A Q 6

A diamond shift is clearly needed, but even then it is difficult (impossible at double-dummy) for the defense to establish a diamond trick. Normal technique is to overtake and lead the 9 (Option C) as a surrounding play; South will cover, as does West to force the ace; then West can lead through dummy’s eight. Alas, West can be kept off lead altogether, so declarer cannot be stopped from establishing the fourth heart for a diamond pitch. Ducking the J (Option F) also does no good, as partner’s diamond shift rides to the queen and king, leaving the suit frozen against further attack from either side.

The best chance to defeat the contract is to overtake and shift to the Q (Option B). In all likelihood, declarer will take this play at face value, winning the ace.* Partner will signal with the 6 (attitude) to aid your cause; then no matter how declarer plays, you can win the second heart and continue diamonds to seal his fate. If partner held the Q and not the J, he would discourage diamonds; then you would switch to clubs next as your second chance.

*From declarer’s point of view, you appear to have A-Q doubleton, which suggests diamond length. Note that you could not afford to lead low from Q-J-x-x-(x) in case South held K-10 doubleton. Further, declarer does not know the K is onside, so it may be crucial to avoid a diamond loser by his own means; hence, it would seem double-dummy for declarer to win the K.

Second place is a close call between the surrounding play (Option C) and the routine duck (Option F). After much deliberation, I went with Option F, as it caters to cases where a cash-out is necessary* while allowing partner to shift. The  9 confirms only three hearts, as you couldn’t afford that card with A-Q-9-3; and with A-Q-9-7 you would play the seven to allay fears. Therefore, partner will have fair knowledge to do something intelligent (for a change?) albeit with no chance in the diagram.

*South could have K-J doubleton or a diamond void (and three hearts).

Option C gets a close third. In theory it loses in the diagram, but partner should put up the 10 on the second round, then declarer may duck hoping the ace falls.* My reason for ranking Option C below F is that it fails outright if South has A-J-x-x-x x-x-x J-10 A-Q-x ( 8 establishes), or you’ll be endplayed if he has A-J-x-x-x x-x-x K-10-x-x A (strip clubs and finesse hearts into East).

*Declarer usually shouldn’t fall for this trap, as splitting with J-10-9-5 offers an opportunity to win two heart tricks, but special circumstances here cloud the issue. It’s more of a cat-and-mouse game — or a Bud and Lou script.

Leading the 4 (Option D) gets fourth place, as it still lets you defeat the contract when partner has J-10-x (or K) or the Q. Alas, the technical error has a serious downside, gifting a trick to K-10-x-(x) and potentially vitalizing a hopeless contract.

Fifth place goes to overtaking and shifting to the J (Option E), which ignores the chance in diamonds and banks on partner having the Q. Shifting to a trump (Option A) may be theoretically the same, as there is still time for a club shift; but those who fail to see the need to attack are unlikely to wise up later.

Comments for B. Overtake; lead Q

Tim DeLaney: I must set up the setting trick in a minor before South can pitch on the fourth heart. Playing diamonds first gives me two bites at the apple; if wrong, I’ll have time to switch to clubs. Which diamond? Any diamond is OK if partner has J-10-x, or if I must switch to clubs; but if partner has J-x-x, leading the 4 or 9 virtually forces South to make the winning play, while the Q gives him a chance to go wrong.

Leif-Erik Stabell: A club is right if South has A-J-x-x-x x-x K-10-x-x A-x; but would West lead the J from J-10-x-x? Looks much more likely that partner has led from J-10-x, and South has something like A-J-x-x-x x-x-x K-10-x A-Q. Holding the 10, declarer can make the contract at double-dummy, but probably won’t.

Rainer Herrmann: West has no further entry. Besides, PavCo does not consider surrounding plays much of a challenge; more suitable for traps. :)

Grant Peacock: I’m hoping declarer will misguess diamonds… If partner has the Q, I get a chance to change my mind and guess that later.

Perry Groot: Technically, if South has K-10-x, the nine is the correct play to create a diamond trick; however, West will never be able to lead another diamond. Hence, a psychological lead of the queen looks like the only option.

Alan Schwartz: Partner is not getting in, so I might as well hope declarer misguesses the diamond situation.

John Reardon: South may have something like A-J-x-x-x-x x-x J-x A-x-x, in which case I must switch to diamonds immediately. I lead the queen in case South has A-J-x-x-x-x x-x-x K-10-x A (the technical nine would fail because partner will not regain the lead).

Rob Stevens: Partner will not regain the lead, so the technical 9 is not of much use. A club is only correct when South is 5=2=4=2, which is less likely than 5=2=3=2 and 6=2=3=2.

Eric Leong: This is the only play to give declarer a problem if he has A-J-10-x x-x-x K-10-x A-Q-x.

David Kenward: We probably need to set up a diamond trick to take this off. If South has… K-10-x, neither the 4 nor the 9 work; but the Q does, unless declarer guesses very well.

David Lindop: Partner can’t hold much more than the J and J, so the best I can hope for is three hearts and a diamond. Overtaking and leading the 9 won’t work if declarer has K-10-x, since I’ll have to lead diamonds next time. Better to lead the Q and put declarer to a guess if he has something like A-J-x-x-x x-x-x K-10-x A-Q;…perhaps he should play for split diamond honors, but many would not…

Neelotpal Sahai: Defense can probably collect three heart tricks; but if done too early, dummy’s K is set up for a minor-suit discard. South’s minor suits could be K-x-x A-Q or K-J-x A-x. Diamonds have to be attacked first, as declarer has two sure top tricks; while in clubs he may not. If he is well-guarded in diamonds, I can shift to clubs on winning the second heart; but if clubs are led first,…it is too late for diamonds. The moot point is which diamond. I start with the Q, so I can’t be stripped…and endplayed; hopefully, partner will signal for a continuation if he has the J…

Comments for F. Play the 9

Herb Lavine: Let partner figure it out. He knows how many hearts declarer has… Overtaking to lead the 9 won’t work if declarer has K-10-x, as he can keep partner off lead.

Junyi Zhu: I need partner to decide the best defense: diamond, trump or heart; any could be right. [Overtaking] to attack diamonds immediately seems dangerous, and is only required if South is [3-3 in the red suits].

Bruce Neill: This is a close one. Looks like I should overtake to switch to the 9 to surround the 10; but if declarer has A-J-x-x x-x-x K-10-x A-Q-x, he can make against any defense by guessing well; or with A-J-10-x-x x-x-x K-10-x-x A, I’ve made the “unlucky expert” play if declarer ruffs a club before playing another heart. … On balance, I think our best chance is that we have four tricks [due], if I leave partner on lead to play another heart.

Adrian Barna: Playing diamonds is vital if declarer has A-J-x-x x-x-x K-x-x A-Q-x; or it could give him the [contract] if he has A-J-x-x x-x-x K-10-x-x A-Q. Partner should be able to decide.

Charles Blair: My brilliant partner will (I hope) know the heart situation, and that I don’t know what should be done. “When a player fails to lead up to an obvious weakness in dummy, he has a high card in the suit, ace or king.” -Terence Reese

“When a player strikes out with a chance to take the lead, the dummy has an obvious weakness.” -Peewee Reese

Steve White: I’m hoping partner has the 7, which will make the position easier for him to read; but even without it, I hope he judges that I’m leaving him on lead because either minor can be attacked from his side; he should lead his stronger one.

Chuck Lamprey: We must play diamonds if South has A-x-x-x-x x-x-x K-x-x A-Q, or A-x-x-x-x x-x-x x-x A-Q-x, or A-x-x-x-x x-x x-x-x A-Q-x. We must play clubs if he has A-x-x-x-x x-x K-x-x-x A-x, or A-x-x-x-x x-x-x K-J-x A-x. Sometimes we may have a second chance, but since I don’t know what to do, I’ll leave the choice to partner. He can probably work out the heart situation (I wouldn’t waste the 9 unless forced to)… I’m hoping he shifts to his stronger minor; but if he continues hearts, I’ll treat his card as suit preference.

Brad Theurer: It’s not clear which minor will provide the potential setting trick, so I will let partner help out. If I could not stand a shift to either minor, I would overtake; so he should shift to clubs holding the Q, else a diamond from the king (more likely J-10). South could have either A-J-x-x x-x-x K-J-x-x A-x, or A-J-x-x x-x-x K-x-x A-Q-x; in the latter case a diamond shift is needed immediately.

Dirk Enthoven: I’ll let partner have his jack — he has so few tricks to look forward to. … Declarer [may misguess] the Q, since I did not put my 12 HCP on the bidding block.

Ari Eisenberg: Not sure this hand requires an aggressive move, so I’ll be passive and let declarer figure out how to play his suits. … Seems too simple; I smell a rat.

Frans Buijsen: I have to assume we have three heart tricks, plus partner [may] have the K or Q; he knows, so I’ll let him switch to establish our minor-suit trick before the K is established.

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 5

IMPs N-S Vul	A K 5 3 A 9 3 10 5 J 7 3 2		Who West Pass Pass	No Idea North 1 3 NT	You East Pass All Pass	What SOUTH 1 1 NT
3 NT South		9 8 7 K 10 2 Q 9 7 4 Q 10 9

Trick 1 W

Lead Q

2nd 3

3rd ?

4th 6

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
F. Play the 2	10	196	18
C. Overtake; lead Q	8	68	6
D. Overtake; lead 4	7	131	12
A. Overtake; lead 9	5	61	6
E. Play the 10	4	160	15
B. Overtake; lead 10	3	475	44

First reactions suggest that partner struck gold with his heart lead, but a closer look at the spot cards reveals that the mother lode belongs to declarer. Partner would not lead the Q from Q-J-8-x-(x) or weaker; fourth best is correct.* Therefore, continued heart leads will only help declarer establish his long heart. A shift is in order; but to what, and by whom?

*At notrump, accepted practice is to require at least Q-J-10-x or Q-J-9-x to start with the queen; hence, partner must be leading a short suit (Q-J-x).

What is South’s shape? Marked with four hearts, and having opened 1 and rebid 1 NT, only two possibilities exist: 3=4=3=3 or 2=4=3=4. In either case, diamonds is the defenders’ long suit and the likely source of a setting trick. It is tempting to overtake (safe since you have the 10) and lead a diamond through declarer; but don’t be too hasty. Consider a plausible layout:

IMPs	A K 5 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	A 9 3		1 W	Q	3	2!	6
	10 5		2 W	3	5	9!	J
	J 7 3 2		Declarer fails
10 6 2		9 8 7
Q J 8		K 10 2
A 8 6 3		Q 9 7 4
8 5 4		Q 10 9
	Q J 4
	7 6 5 4
	K J 2
3 NT South	A K 6

If you overtake and shift to the 4, declarer will duck and have a picnic with his double stopper; indeed, 10 tricks are routine. Leading the Q does no good either, only simplifying declarer’s play. Alas, a diamond shift is not so attractive after all.

But wait! A diamond shift is fine if it comes from partner, as a first-round intrafinesse against the 10 will restrict declarer to one diamond trick. Therefore, you should allow partner to hold the lead but discourage with the 2 (Option F). Looking at dummy, an expert should have no problem switching to the 3; low, nine, jack. Declarer cannot develop a ninth trick without letting you gain the lead, then the Q traps the king to run the rest of the suit; down one.*

*Declarer could succeed by winning the first trick and clearing clubs, but this is double-dummy. If hearts were 4-2 (or 5-1), ducking could be essential.

Second place goes to attacking diamonds yourself by leading the queen (Option C). While failing in the diagram, this would buy the Ponderosa, er I mean, reap a bonanza, if partner held A-J-x-x (down two). Almost as good is a low diamond (Option D), which is effective anytime partner has the J, although losing the ability to run four fast tricks.

Fourth place goes to leading a spade (Option A), which offers some hope to defeat the contract. For example, if South has Q-10 x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x-x, he cannot come to nine tricks before the defense can win five. Try it, as it’s a good exercise to show the value of tempo. Alas, I couldn’t find any layout where overtaking to lead a spade does better than a diamond shift from partner, so this does not deserve a good score.

Worst is to continue hearts, but signaling with the 10 (Option E) is better than doing it yourself (Option B); e.g., forcing partner to win the third heart lets declarer succeed with J-x x-x-x-x A-J-x A-K-x-x, while a timely spade shift by you renders defeat. Further, there’s a chance partner may shift anyway, as with Q-J-8 he can deduce that you couldn’t spare the 10 from four cards, since his lead could be Q-J doubleton. The plurality vote for Option B caused me to be generous in awarding it 3. No doubt, many respondents missed the inference that partner was leading a short suit. The moral? Watch the spot cards!

Comments for F. Play the 2

Tim DeLaney: My card is just attitude, and I want partner to make an intelligent switch. Most likely, this will be a diamond, which I cannot lead from my side to advantage.

Leif-Erik Stabell: I won’t encourage since partner (missing 10 and 9) most likely has only three hearts. My main hope is that declarer has guessed to duck with something like Q-J x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x-x, and that partner now shifts to a small diamond. Note that it would have been right for declarer to duck the opening lead if I had the A instead of the 10.

Herb Lavine: Partner must shift to low diamond from A-8-x-x, as South may have Q-x-x x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x. If South has A-J-x, we aren’t going to set it.

Junyi Zhu: [I don’t want] partner to continue with only three hearts. Also, the diamond suit is better to play from partner’s hand in case South has K-J-x.

Dale Freeman: With Q-J-x-x most experts lead low (especially at IMPs); therefore, partner likely has Q-J-x. I want partner to lead a diamond; if South has K-J-x, my nine will force the jack; then when I win the Q, the Q will smother the 10 in dummy.

Jordi Sabate: Asking for a switch, [obviously] to diamonds. Maybe South has K-J-x.

Eugene Dille: Hoping partner shifts to a low diamond. South may have Q-10-4 7-6-5-3 K-J-6 A-K-6.

Bruce Neill: The lead suggests partner has only three hearts. If he is 4=3=4=2, maybe he chose a heart because he didn’t want to lead from A-8-x-x. [Therefore], I discourage hearts to ask for a diamond switch, so I can intrafinesse dummy’s 10.

Take me to your leader? “I would but I didn’t know who my leader was.” -Jonathan Winters

Rainer Herrmann: Option C would be indicated if the defense has to take their tricks immediately, playing South for K-x-x. But what if South has K-J-x? Let partner switch!

Imre Csiszar: The heart suit has to be abandoned, as West would have led fourth-best from length (lacking 10 or 9). The most promising suit is diamonds, but Option D isn’t good enough if South holds Q-x-x x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x — only partner’s diamond shift can defeat 3 NT. Playing the 2 does run the risk of an unwelcome spade shift, but partner knows South has no more than three diamonds,…and will likely lead a diamond when it is right.

Perry Groot: With the 9 in dummy, the lead looks like a short suit, so tricks will be needed from the diamond suit. To kill the 10, West needs to shift to a diamond.

Jarek Gasior: Partner now has a chance to shift to a low diamond if needed (he has only three hearts).

Gerald Murphy: I want partner to hold A-8-x-x, then a diamond [shift] will [trap] dummy’s 10.

Marco Catellani: Hoping for a diamond switch to my nine.

John Reardon: Partner has led from a [short] suit. South may have Q-J-x x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x, in which case we need to broach diamonds from partner’s side, while maintaining my heart entry. I discourage and expect partner to know what to do.

Julian Pottage: Since I can see the 9 and 10, the lead is probably from Q-J-x. A diamond lead is better from partner’s side if South has K-J-x.

Rob Stevens: We need a diamond switch, since South appears to have four hearts; and it must come from partner, lest South hold K-J-x.

Brad Theurer: The lead is likely from Q-J-x (since the 9 and 10 are visible), so a shift is needed. Partner should work out the diamond shift (necessary from his side if he has A-8-x-x), which will establish the setting trick before declarer establishes his ninth trick in clubs or hearts; South having, say, Q-x-x x-x-x-x K-J-x A-K-x.

Dirk Enthoven: [Discouraging], as I worry about setting up declarer’s fourth heart. …

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Problem 6

IMPs None Vul	10 9 3 J 6 5 A 8 6 2 A K 6		Who West 3 1 Pass All Pass	No Idea NORTH 1 Pass 5	You East 1 Pass Dbl	What South 1 4 NT 6
6 South		7 5 A K Q 7 3 J 10 3 Q 9 4

Trick 1 W

Lead 10

2nd 5

3rd ?

4th 4

1. weak

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Overtake; lead K	10	382	35
F. Play the 3	8	256	23
E. Play the 7	6	33	3
C. Overtake; lead J	5	298	27
A. Overtake; lead 5	4	94	9
D. Overtake; lead 4	1	28	3

One thing is clear: If a second heart trick will cash, both partner and South are insane — else working on a new Abbott and Costello script, or arguably both. Therefore, you’re not beating this one off the top.

South’s aggressive bidding is likely based on seven solid spades and the K, which makes 11 top tricks; so if he also has the Q, there is no chance. Even with only six spades, a holding of K-Q-x-(x) will produce 12 tricks. Therefore, you should assume partner has the Q, and your defense must be aimed at avoiding a squeeze. Consider this layout:

IMPs	10 9 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	J 6 5		1 W	10	5	3?	4
	A 8 6 2		2 W	2	A	4	5
	A K 6		3 N	10	5	2	6
6		7 5	4 N	3	7	A	2
10 9 8 2		A K Q 7 3	5 S	K	3	9	7
Q 9 5 4		J 10 3	6 S	Q	8	6	Q
10 8 3 2		Q 9 4	7 S	J	9	2	3
	A K Q J 8 4 2		8 S	8	4	6	10
	4		continued below…
	K 7
6 South	J 7 5

Squeeze defense often involves an attack on declarer’s entries, so suppose you play the 3 (letting partner’s 10 win) and partner shifts to a club. Declarer will win the A and lead six rounds of trumps to reach this position:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	J 6		9 S	K	5	8	J
	A 8		10 S	7	9	A	?
	K		East is squeezed
—		—
—		A K
Q 9 5		J
10 8		Q 9
	4
	—
	K 7
South leads	J 7

Next comes the K and A, and you are caught in a ruffout squeeze. If you pitch a heart, one ruff establishes the jack. If you pitch a club, the K drops your queen, and the J is good.

The ruffout squeeze is eradicated by leading a second heart (Option B) at Trick 2. Leaving a blank J in dummy forces declarer to rely on a traditional squeeze, any of which is destined to fail.* Evidently this is the kind of defense that a beginner would get right, hoping to cash a second heart, but an advanced player might miss.

*Entries are the hang-up. East cannot be squeezed in hearts and clubs, because he discards after dummy (the J if good will be unreachable). Entry conditions also foil a double squeeze, e.g., if declarer ruffs a diamond to isolate the threat to West.

Second place goes to playing the 3 (Option F) which systemically asks for a club shift. While failing in the diagram, this succeeds if South has K-Q doubleton and only six spades; i.e., it removes the second club entry and breaks up the ruffout squeeze. Despite the narrow window for success, there’s a good chance an expert partner will continue hearts anyway after your preference for clubs; i.e., a club shift could only be necessary if you were void, which is far-fetched.

Third place goes to playing the 7 (Option E) which asks for a diamond shift.* Even so, for similar reasons as the last paragraph, this could hardly be essential from partner’s perspective. If you were void, you would have doubled 6  (Lightner) for a diamond lead. If you held the K, a heart continuation is just as good.

*Per default carding agreements, suit preference applies when third hand has shown 5+ cards in the auction, whereupon a middle card is used to encourage a continuation. In this case, however, partner will know your exact holding after the 10 wins, so the 7 is illogical to ask for a continuation, as you could easily overtake for that.

Fourth place is a toss-up between Options A and C. Leading a trump or a diamond is essentially a passive defense. I couldn’t come up with any realistic layout* where either effects the outcome, so they’re ranked by the voting.

*In theory, the J shift could gain if partner were void, or lose if partner held a blank K or Q; but I consider these cases implausible at IMPs in an expert game. Even with solid spades, e.g., A-K-Q-J-x-x x K-9-x-x-x x, South would be aware of the danger of a diamond ruff playing in spades, and the easy Lightner double by East; so he’d place the contract in 6 . Then again, this is Abbott and Costello month, so I could be wrong.

Last and surely worst is to overtake and shift to a club, which borders on folly, presenting declarer with a free gift. I’d hate to have to explain to my teammates how 6  came home with A-K-Q-J-x-x x K-x J-10-x-x, so when they ask, “How did it make?” I suggest you reply, “Yes, How made it.”

Comments for B. Overtake; lead K

Tim DeLaney: Playing a second round of hearts forces South to ruff prematurely, disrupting the heart-club ruffout squeeze.

Leif-Erik Stabell: I must prevent the trump squeeze.

Herb Lavine: To avoid a crisscross or trump squeeze, whatever it’s called.* South may have A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x and end up in dummy with J-x A opposite x J-x; then I am in bad shape.

*Best term is “ruffout squeeze” which describes the technique well. I think George Coffin originated this, although he reversed the words as “squeeze ruffout” which sounds awkward or contrived. “Ruffing squeeze” is also OK, but the commonly used “trump squeeze” should be put to pasture. Card play is difficult enough without adding cryptography. -RP

Junyi Zhu: At least this will kill the heart-club ruffout squeeze. …

Dale Freeman: There is a mild chance of a trump squeeze. I see nothing else.

Jordi Sabate: The dangerous position is a heart-club ruffout squeeze against me. Two rounds of hearts will break it, so I overtake to make sure.

Eugene Dille: I need to take command to return a heart; otherwise, declarer may execute a ruffing squeeze.

Bruce Neill: If declarer has A-K-Q-J-x-x x K-Q J-10-8-x, or A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-10-8, a trump squeeze threatens. Against the first hand, either a club [from partner] or a heart breaks the squeeze; against the second, only another heart will do; so I’ll do it myself. If I duck, partner will assume I don’t want another heart.

Adrian Barna: Continuing hearts will break a possible trump squeeze in hearts and clubs.

Jerry Fink: Actually, I would overtake and lead the Q* at trick two, to assure partner that I stop clubs — which is why I have to cut off the impending trump squeeze by trimming dummy’s hearts down to size.

*Most experts would consider overtaking with the queen and leading the king as strongest suit preference for clubs, since you played lowest honors at each opportunity. Overtaking with the king would suggest neutrality, then if followed by the queen, perhaps a slight preference for clubs (versus diamonds). -RP

John Lusky: Necessary to break up the ruffing squeeze if South has A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

Rainer Herrmann: Safest way of killing the trump squeeze.

Nuno Damaso: If declarer has something like A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, he will win any return (but a heart), cash one club, the K and all but one spade to reach: J-x A A opposite x x J-x. On the next diamond lead, I’m done by a ruffing squeeze. The only way to stop it is to lead a second heart.

Imre Csiszar: Else declarer might make an impossible slam via a trump squeeze in hearts and clubs.

Grant Peacock: This prevents a trump squeeze.

Perry Groot: There is a possible threat of a trump squeeze against me in clubs and hearts. North has more than enough entries, so the only other option is to kill the heart suit.

Jarek Gasior: To destroy the trump squeeze.

Toby Kenney: Maybe it’s cashing. :) Seriously, this prevents a trump squeeze if South holds A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

D.C. Lin: There is a trump squeeze if declarer has 11 tricks, such as A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x. To break it, I have to continue hearts.

Charles Blair: Over the years, we’ve seen a lot of ruffing squeezes.

Gerald Murphy: Partner must hold Q-x-x-(x) for me to do any harm. In all likelihood, South is 6=1=2=4 or 6=1=3=3.

Alan Schwartz: To kill the trump squeeze.

John Reardon: If South has A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, I am in danger of a ruffing squeeze. Continuing hearts now prevents this possibility.

Nigel Guthrie: Hoping (1) declarer has A-K-x-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, (2) a heart continuation destroys the trump squeeze, and (3) declarer is not up to playing for some other weird Pavlicek compound squeeze.

Jonathan Mestel: What trump squeeze? I thought you might have another heart!

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Breaking the heart-club trump squeeze when South has A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

Lajos Linczmayer: To beat this, we must win a club trick. I suppose South has A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, and this play prevents the squeeze.

Debbie Cohen: Breaks up a trump squeeze.

Julian Pottage: This prevents declarer from using hearts as a threat if he needs a trump squeeze.

Edith Olson: This is my only “kick the cat” if I’m going to set this. It might be trumped,…but I’d better do it before declarer can throw away any loser.

I like your style, but I’ll still have to report you to the SPCA.

Dean Pokorny: Breaking the heart-club trump squeeze.

Todd Anderson: Giving declarer six running spades and a heart singleton: If he has K-Q-x-x, he has no club loser; if K-Q-x, diamonds are splitting and he can pitch his club loser; if K-Q tight, it is necessary to lead another heart now to prevent a trump squeeze in hearts and clubs. If declarer has seven spades and only the K, a trump squeeze is also possible, which a second heart will prevent. Even a club switch by West at trick two is bad if declarer has A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

Paulino Correa: [I can] beat the contract if declarer holds A-K-Q-x-x-x 4 K-Q J-x-x-x; but if I duck and partner leads a trump or a diamond, declarer will be able to squeeze me… Why tempt the devil?

Rob Stevens: The only squeeze open to declarer is a ruffing squeeze, which this play destroys. The J would be dreadful: South might hold A-K-Q-J-x-x x K-9-x-x-x x, or even worse, Q-9-x-x-x.

Roger Webb: If South has A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, I must remove the heart threat to avoid a trump squeeze in an ending of J-x A opposite x J-x.

Roland Voigt: This will break up the heart-club squeeze, in case South began with A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, or similar.

Eric Leong: This is necessary to break up the possible impending squeeze in hearts and clubs. If declarer has A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, I don’t want him to reach a position of J-x A opposite x J-x with the lead in dummy (I can’t protect both hearts and clubs).

David Caprera: Maybe we’ll cash two hearts? (Foiling the trump squeeze against A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.)

Chris Willenken: If South has A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x, a non-heart continuation will lead to me getting trump-squeezed.

Jim Munday: Beware the trump squeeze! Declarer will try for this end position with the lead in dummy: J-x A opposite x J-x. There is one sure way for me to kill the squeeze: Overtake and return a heart.

Julian Wightwick: Otherwise, I can be trump-squeezed in hearts and clubs.

Dmitri Shabes: To avoid a ruffing squeeze in hearts and clubs.

Chuck Lamprey: Simplest seems best, and I don’t want to be trump-squeezed should South have something like A-K-Q-x-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible South hand: A-K-Q-J-x-x-x 4 K-x J-x-x. To destroy the impending trump squeeze, the defense must continue hearts; as I know what to do, I overtake.

Javier Carbonero: To avoid the likely trump squeeze.

Bill Powell: The only thing I can protect against is a heart-club ruffout squeeze.

Travis Crump: If South has A-K-Q-J-x x K-Q-x J-x-x-x and I defend passively, I will be trump-squeezed after four spades and four diamonds. Continuing hearts prevents this…

Marvin Levine: [Declarer’s success] hinges on diamonds; if he has K-Q-x (and six spades), he has his contract; but if he has less than that, or K-Q stiff, [my] club trick will come home.

Thijs Veugen: Although a club shift by partner works on certain hands, this will definitely kill all of declarer’s chances for a club-heart squeeze.

Dirk Enthoven: This is pedestrian but may give me a shot at winning the Q. …

Roefi Vilier: Defending against the trump squeeze.

Jonathan Ferguson: … This wins anytime both West and South missorted their hands (West had a diamond with his hearts, and South vice versa). :) …

David Lindop: I want to get rid of two hearts from dummy to remove the threat of a trump squeeze if South has something like A-K-Q-J-x-x-x x K-x J-x-x.

Neelotpal Sahai: Continuing hearts is important to break up a trump squeeze (South could have something like A-K-Q-J-x x K-Q-x-x J-x-x). … I won’t take chances, so I overtake and continue.

Final Notes

I hope you enjoyed this contest, as well as the memory of Abbott and Costello. I can remember many happy hours watching their movies when I was a child… or a teenager… or last week (I may never grow up). The world was a kinder place in their day — well, except for gigs like Abbott and Costello Meet the Mummy. Thanks to all who participated, and especially those who offered kind remarks.

I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems (combined with the input of your comments) has determined the best defensive plays in theory. Nonetheless, it is possible that I overlooked something. Feedback is always welcome.

Comments are selected from those scoring 46 or higher (top 263) in this contest. For each problem, I only included comments that support the winning option or close seconds (9 awards). This may seem biased, but I feel it’s the most practical way to ensure solid content and avoid potential embarrassment in publishing comments that are off the mark. I included about 80 percent of the eligible comments. Inclusion of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they’re all worthy. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Comments are quoted exactly, except for corrections in spelling and grammar. If I use only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) shows where text was cut. In some cases I have inserted text [in brackets] to supply an omitted word or phrase, or to summarize a cut portion. Comments appear in the order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing.

It’s time to say good-bye. We all know “Who’s on first” so let’s see who’s on last:

Jon Greiman: Clearly, my answers are out in left field. Why? Yes!

Anthony Golding: I hate these defensive problems, which means they must be good for me. Keep them coming!

Jim Munday: Another pertinent question: Who’s In First? After these problems, I expect the answer will be: Not me!

Gabrielle Uz: What if who’s on lead is a she, and our shorter leader’s a lady? Who plays the lesser leader, Lou or Sue?

Peter Hall: Thank Goodness I wasn’t on lead. (Goodness was declarer.)

Mike Frentz: I’m not saying who’s second hand; but Who’s on lead. I don’t know. Third hand!

Analyses 8Y16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Who’s On Lead?

Acknowledgments to Bud Abbott (1897-1974), Lou Costello (1906-59) and “Who’s On First?”
© 2007 Richard Pavlicek