Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

The Man Who Bid Too Much

Scores  by Richard Pavlicek

These six play problems were published on the Internet in August 2005 as a contest open to all bridge players. As declarer on each problem, all you had to do was choose your line of play from the choices offered.

Problem 1

2

3

4

5

6

Final Notes

A happy ending! Perhaps it was the Ambassador’s good heart, or the low heart he led to beat that 5  redoubled you misplayed, but his spirits lifted. After the last hand, he even asked Jo to perform her signature song. Then somewhere between, “Should I paint pictures?” and “This was her wise reply,” you hear a faint voice from another room, “That’s my mother.” It gets louder, “She’s here!”

Discreetly, you leave the ballroom to investigate, and moments later you can’t hold back the tears as you are reunited with your son. “Daddy! Daddy!” he shouts, as the next strain echoes from the ballroom, “Now we have children of our own…” You hurry back with your son in hand, and even the guards break down in tears, while Jo rushes up to embrace her son. “When are you going to teach me bridge?” the boy asks his mother. “I wanna bid like Daddy!”

“The future’s not ours to see,” Jo replies. “What will be, will be.”

The Ambassador adds, “What will be, I hope, is for Muslims, Christians and Jews to respect each other and live in peace.”

Jordi Sabate Wins!

This contest had 897 entrants from 113 locations, and the average score was 40.99. Congratulations to Jordi Sabate (Spain) who was the first of five to submit perfect scores. This is Jordi’s second win (also October 2004) so the Spanish connection is on the uprise. Also scoring 60 were previous contest winners: Rainer Herrmann (Germany), Perry Groot (Netherlands), Rob Stevens (California) and Jim Munday (California). Close behind with 59 were Leif-Erik Stabell (Zimbabwe), Thijs Veugen (Netherlands) and John Lusky (Oregon).

Participation was down considerably, and the trend is disappointing. Is bridge really on the decline? Or is it time to pack these in? Anyway, I just heard from Fritz, who was hanging out in Morocco, and he promised to return in October for payback… don’t say I didn’t warn you! The average score (40.99) was up (fourth highest), and 468 persons topped it (41 or higher) to make the listing. Only one problem (#5) turned out to be a close call for the top spot.

Rainer Herrmann (Germany) took the lead in the overall rankings with a 59.00 average (back-to-back 60s help) but only by tiebreaker over Jim Munday (California). Next with 58.50 is Rob Stevens (California); followed by Charles Blair (Illinois) and previous leader Lajos Linczmayer (Hungary), each with 58.25; and Bruce Neill (Australia) is a just a koala whisker back at 58.00.

Hurricanes! I thought we were unfortunate to have four days without power after Katrina, but now I see how lucky we were to catch her as a baby. My heart and prayers go out to the Gulf Coast victims. This is the 16th hurricane I’ve been through since Donna back in 1960. Why doesn’t Europe get any hurricanes? Let’s see if that Dutch boy can really plug the dikes, or how about an airborne Tower of Pisa.

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and opponents use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. The Ambassador (West) and General (East) are good players, not experts.

Each problem offered six plausible lines of play (A-F). The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which is also aided by some of the comments received.

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 1

Rubber Bridge None Vul	A 6 4 A 10 9 8 3 2 Q 10 5 4		Ambass. West Dbl 3 All Pass	Jo North 2 Dbl	General EAST 1 Pass Pass	You South 1 2 4
Lead: 7		East plays A
4 South	Q 10 9 8 7 2 A J 10 5 3 K 4 —

You play the 10 and ruff East’s ace.

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Win A; K	10	116	13
A. Win A; finesse J	8	396	44
E. Win A; finesse J	5	134	15
D. Lead the 3	4	48	5
C. Win A; lead 3	3	47	5
F. Win K; A; finesse J	2	156	17

Ahh, there’s nothing like partnership trust. Rather than nail the speeding Ambassador, you put on a one-man show. Jo is used to this, of course, and blithely puts down dummy without a word — nor a smile, so you’d better make this or you’re sleeping on the couch tonight.

It is tempting to play low from dummy at trick one, but the 7 (fourth best) looks too readable, and you correctly finesse the 10; ace, ruff. West’s negative double indicates four hearts, so developing hearts will necessitate losing two tricks (barring a miraculous K-Q doubleton). Therefore, you can afford only one trump loser, which means finding an opponent (obviously West) with J-x. On the bidding, this is a fair chance, but even then you will have control problems. Consider a typical layout:

Rubber Bridge	A		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	6 4		1 W	7	10	A	2
	A 10 9 8 3 2		2 S	7	4	A	3
	Q 10 5 4		3 N	4?	2	J	Q
J 4		K 6 5 3	4 W	7	6	K	A
Q 9 8 7		K 2	5 S	Q	J	2	K
7 5		Q J 6	6 E	3!	?
K J 8 7 2		A 9 6 3	Declarer fails
	Q 10 9 8 7 2
	A J 10 5 3
	K 4
4 South	—

Assume you follow the popular Line A and cross to dummy with a trump to lead a heart to the jack, queen. Suppose West returns a heart to the king, ace; then you lead the Q to smash the jack, won by East. Curtains. East returns a club, and you are skewered. If you ruff, you must exhaust trumps to draw all of East’s, then West will have the K to cash when he wins a heart trick. If you pitch, West will win the K and give East a heart ruff. Either way, you’re down one. Opponents could also set you if East put up the K on the first heart lead.

Leading hearts at trick three is premature; you don’t need to finesse hearts twice with the marked 4-2 break. Instead you should return to hand with the K (Line B) and pound away trumps. If East tries to tap you as before, you can now safely pitch a heart. This will establish the Q, so all you need is one extra heart trick, which is easily developed with one finesse. If East returns anything else, you can establish hearts and retain control.

Line B is not foolproof. If East is 4=2=2=5 and returns a diamond when he wins the K, you will fail; dummy is now entryless, so West can tap you with a diamond when he wins his first heart trick. Whereas, Line A will succeed because you can take the club tap and catch West in a three-suit squeeze. Even so, such a layout is far less likely — not based on pattern frequency but because of West’s 3  bid. He would hardly compete with a balanced hand and only four clubs on a deal that may be a misfit, especially with four cards in the suit you just bid. Thus, the distribution of my example stands out a mile.

Other lines fail against all layouts (except maybe K-Q doubleton), even with a favorable spade lie. Crossing to the A to finesse hearts (Line E) gives the defense many ways to beat you; West can return anything but a club, and you’ll eventually face the predicament of being tapped out or suffering a heart ruff. Leading the 3 from hand (Line D) is effectively the same, and cashing the A first (Line C) is worse as it leads to more two-trick sets.

Worst of all is to open up the diamond suit (Line F), as you will have to tap yourself later just to get off dummy. In fact, down two is inevitable with best defense (given J-x but not K-Q doubleton). Any ideas of ruffing a heart with the A are foolish.

Comments for B. Win A; K

Jordi Sabate: For the bidding, I play West for four hearts and five clubs (with only four clubs and around 7 points he wouldn’t compete to the three level), so East probably has 4=2=3=4 distribution. If East has K-J-x-x, I have no hope; so my only chance is J-x in West. I need not to be shortened in trumps and avoid a heart ruff, and this followed by the Q is the only way.

Rainer Herrmann: The only realistic chance seems to be that West is 2=4=2=5 with J-x. Other lines of play lose even then.

Perry Groot: Bidding and play give West 2=4=2=5 and East 4=2=3=4. I next lead the Q, hopefully to pin the jack in West. (To cross in hearts is dangerous, as it may lead to a ruff by East, or my losing trump control.)

Rob Stevens: I am almost sure to lose two heart tricks, which means I must find the J doubleton; and with spades 4-2, I am in danger of losing control. This means that West will have to have the K. The key is to make sure that East cannot lead a club at a time when he is in a position to ruff a heart; so I must not play hearts early. I will also need to find West with a doubleton diamond to avoid the diamond force.

Jim Munday: Playing for West to hold J-x — not too unreasonable since East is likely to be 4=2=3=4 on the bidding. If I tackle hearts too early, a second heart from West will leave me in trouble. When East wins the K, he will play a club, and I will either get tapped out if I ruff, or suffer a heart ruff if I pitch. I must lose the spade to East first, retaining the A entry to dummy; then I can safely pitch a heart on a club return (and another on the Q). If no club is led, I will have time to set up the long heart.

Leif-Erik Stabell: Hoping to find West with J-x Q-9-8-x x-x K-J-x-x-x, or similar.

Thijs Veugen: When East has something like K-x-x-x K-x Q-x-x A-x-x-x, I can succeed. I continue with the Q; then if East leads a club, I will discard a heart. I can’t start with the heart finesse (Line A) because East might [get a heart ruff].

John Lusky: Hoping for East to have something like K-x-x-x K-x Q-J-x A-x-x-x. I will continue with the Q, and pitch a heart on a club return. Lines A and E appear to be foiled if East plays high on the first heart lead.

Chris Willenken: Unless East has K-Q doubleton, I need to play for West to be 2=4=2=5 with J-x and only one heart honor. On this line, if East plays a club when he wins the K, I can pitch a heart [then another on the good Q]. On any other sequence, I lose control.

Tim DeLaney: This caters to West holding J-x Q-x-x-x x-x K-J-x-x-x, and Line A caters to J-x Q-x-x-x J-x-x K-J-x-x. The first looks much more like a 3  bid.

Dale Freeman: I will next knock out the K from East [by leading the Q]. If he plays a club, I will pitch a heart to keep trump control. Later I will use the A entry to play for a doubleton heart honor in East.

N. Scott Cardell: West has shown four hearts and bid 3 on what must be very limited values, so he should have five clubs. Apparently, he has led fourth highest from K-J-x-x-x, and is very likely to have the K or Q. East has the A and needs the K as well. … My best chance is to hope the J drops doubleton with West…, so I can win five trumps, three hearts and two diamonds. To succeed, I must avoid ruffing another club (unless West leads the K) until all my hearts are set up. … When I next lead the Q, East has no winning option;…if he returns a club, I simply discard a heart…

Weidong Yang: From the bidding and play, I know West has the K and four hearts with one honor. There are two heart losers, so only one trump trick can be lost, and I will play West for J-x. This is better than Line A because I can [pitch a heart] on a club return from East.

Bruce Neill: I need lots of luck! West may well be 2=4=2=5 (four hearts for the negative double, five clubs for the raise, and no singleton diamond lead). If so, I hope East has something like K-x-x-x K-x Q-x-x A-x-x-x. Then I can draw trumps, and dummy’s Q prevents opponents from forcing me [to ruff]. I have to defer leading hearts, else East may get a heart ruff.

Barry White: I think I can make 4 if East has something like K-x-x-x K-x Q-J-x A-x-x-x. This is consistent with the bidding and allows me to score five spades (my next play will be the Q, smothering West’s J-x), two diamonds, and either three hearts or two hearts and a club.

Gilles Korngut: Playing West for J-x H-x-x-x x-x K-J-x-x-x.

Lajos Linczmayer: Next I play the Q, playing the Consul General for K-x-x-x K-x Q-J-x A-x-x-x.

Bill Powell: To minimize the chance of a heart ruff.

John Reardon: Playing for West to hold J-x, and East to hold K-x or Q-x. East’s K must be knocked out immediately; then if East returns a club, I will pitch a heart (and another on the Q).

Dean Pokorny: Preventing the loss of trump control when West has J-x H-x-x-x x-x K-J-x-x-x.

Albert Ohana: Followed by the Q, hoping for J-x in West’s hand.

Frans Buijsen: I have to find J-x and develop hearts with only two losers. Since West will have four hearts, I’ll play East for K-x-x-x K-x Q-x-x A-x-x-x.

Gonzalo Goded: … It seems East has 4=2=3=4 shape with honor-doubleton in hearts. Having to lose two hearts, I need to hope for J-x with West, and I better draw trumps before East can manage a heart ruff.

Julian Pottage: I hope West has J-x, and East a doubleton heart honor. I may lose control with Line A.

Burak Yurdakul: Interesting. The A may be a falsecard, which could be a nightmare in keeping my major-suit losers to three. If the A is a true card, I hope East holds K-x or Q-x (or K-Q), and West holds J-x…

Gerald Murphy: Next lead the Q, dropping the jack [from West]. If East returns a club, I will pitch a heart…

Janet Dugle: Presumably, the negative double showed four hearts in West, so finessing hearts [early] doesn’t seem very helpful. I would guess that East has four spades…

Douglas Dunn: Then play the Q, hoping to pin the jack.

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 2

Rubber Bridge N-S Vul	Q J 10 A 7 5 4 3 K 2 K 5 4		Ambass. West Pass Pass All Pass	Jo North 2 3 NT	General East Pass Pass	You SOUTH 1 NT 3 6
Lead: J		East plays 3
6 South	A 2 Q 10 9 2 A Q 5 Q J 7 3

After making a travesty of Jacoby transfers…

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
C. Win K; lead 4	10	271	30
D. Win Q; lead Q	8	224	25
E. Win Q; lead 10	7	158	18
A. Win K; A (unblock 9)	6	121	13
F. Win Q; lead 2	3	73	8
B. Win K; A (play 2)	2	50	6

Our “man who bid too much” seems to be in full stride, but the jump to slam is not so ridiculous if you consider that many experts give a special meaning to Jo’s 3 NT bid. Opener could hardly prefer to play in notrump after a superacceptance, so I use 3 NT as a slam try with no singleton or void; hence, bidding a new suit is a splinter. Translation: Always look for an opportunity to blame the wife.

One thing is clear: You must pick up trumps without a loser, which means finding West with a blank king or East with a blank jack — two equal possibilities a priori. West’s J lead indicates nothing about his diamond length, so it provides no information about the distribution, other than negligible clues that West probably doesn’t have a singleton club or the A. The only significant edge seems to be that playing for K-x-x has a chance to steal; i.e., the Ambassador may not cover with K-x. Of course, if you make 6  this way, your future may be toast. Is this the origin of “Down one is good bridge?”

Anyway, back to the task at hand. Even if you pick up trumps, there’s another problem: avoiding a spade loser if the king is offside. If clubs split 3-3, or if the A captures air, you can avoid the spade finesse, and this may be within your control; whereas, you can only hope for a favorable trump lie. Consider this plausible layout:

Rubber Bridge	Q J 10		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	A 7 5 4 3		1 W	J	2?	3	Q
	K 2		2 S	Q	6	3	J
	K 5 4		3 S	9	K	A	4
K 7 6 3		9 8 5 4	4 N	4	2	Q	6
K 8 6		J	5 S	10	8	4	5
J 10 9 4		8 7 6 3	6 S	5	4	K	6
9 6		A 10 8 2	7 N	5	A!	3	9
	A 2		8 E	8!
	Q 10 9 2		Declarer fails
	A Q 5
6 South	Q J 7 3

Hearts are sitting pretty, so assume you win the Q and lead the Q (Line D) which West ducks; then the 9 is covered by the king and ace. Suppose you lead a club to the queen, draw West’s last trump, then cross to the K. If you lead another low club, East will hop with the ace and shift to a spade. Curtains! Despite your J being good, the club suit is blocked, and the A is the only entry to your hand. You’re obliged to take the spade finesse; down one. It would be better to draw trumps completely, cross to the K, lead a club to the queen, and a club to the king, ace. Then you can rise with the A and combine chances, playing for 3-3 clubs or a spade-club squeeze. Alas, this fails, too.

Entries are delicate. If you win the K and immediately lead a low club (Line C), you can take advantage of a Morton’s fork coup. East is obliged to duck and let you win the Q. Now lead the Q, and assume West ducks and covers the next; win the ace and draw West’s last trump. Cross to dummy with a fourth trump, and lead another low club. If East hops, you have two side entries to your hand and can claim; so suppose he ducks and lets you win the J. End of clubs! Cash your diamonds to pitch the K, then lead ace and another spade to establish the queen.

Line C does risk a club ruff, but it’s negligible. If West had a singleton club, he probably would have led it (plus East may duck the ace anyway). If East had a singleton club, West probably would have led the A in view of his likely trump trick. Therefore, the only realistic danger is a club void in West — quite a long shot compared to the advantage of succeeding any other time East has the A.

Among choices A, D and E, there’s little difference. Entries do not permit the Morton’s fork of Line C*, so after finessing in trumps, best technique is simply to lead a club to the king, ace; then refuse the finesse on a spade return and play for 3-3 clubs** or a black-suit squeeze*** (fluid thanks to the heart unblock). Playing for K-x-x (Line D) gets the edge because West might not cover with K-x. Line E gets third place per the voting.

*Actually, Line E allows a dangerous fork: Win the Q; lead 10, king, ace; club to queen; diamond to king; club. This caters to A-x-x-x in East, but playing for it loses to A-x (or x-x if West ducks the first club). Further, considering the known heart lie, A-x-x-x is less likely, and the dangerous holdings are more likely.

**Another possibility is a third-round club finesse if West has 10-9, 10-8 or 9-8 doubleton. This is the percentage play in clubs based on restricted choice (losing only to 10-9-8), but just be happy you didn’t face this decision as well.

***Even if East returns a non-spade, you should still win the A and play for the squeeze. East’s charity of allowing you to test clubs before finessing in spades should be viewed as a Trojan horse, no doubt because a squeeze against West is working.

Line F (blocking hearts) is much worse. A squeeze might still be effected by drawing trumps and leading the Q, forcing East to win (else you can cross to the K and lead a low club for a Morton’s fork); but whenever the squeeze would be needed (West has four clubs and the K), East can kill it with a club return. On a spade return, therefore, the combo of hopping and playing for 3-3 clubs or a squeeze against East is barely better than a simple spade finesse.

Line B is worst, as utilizing the K immediately and blocking hearts allows East to duck the Q without risk. He will then take the second club and return a spade, committing you to a single chance.

The field was on the ball with this problem. Not only did the consensus find the winning answer, but the voting followed the exact order of my ranking. Not exactly Hitchcock, but neat.

Comments for C. Win K; lead 4

Jordi Sabate: I’d like to play clubs twice from dummy (in case East has the A) after drawing trumps, but the lack of entries means the first time [must be at trick two]. After guessing [and drawing] trumps (starting with Q or 10), I will reach dummy with a fourth trump to play a second club. If East has the A, I am home whatever he does.

Rainer Herrmann: Even though the contract is unlikely to succeed, there is no need to rely on the spade finesse if clubs break 3-3, or if East has the A.

Perry Groot: If I can make three club tricks, the spades can be thrown away…and I will not depend on the location of the K. To cater for A-x or A-x-x-x in East, I have to play clubs twice from dummy. Hearts need to be played for no loser, i.e., singleton king in West or singleton jack in East. This keeps my communication [flexible] and both lines open; the club spots …may indicate how to play hearts.

Rob Stevens: Luckily for me, the correct answer is the one which does not require me to guess hearts. Our quizmaster has relieved me of that necessity, since I am about zero for 30. :) Hearts must cooperate, but I want to take advantage of clubs, even when they are 4-2. The way to do this is to lead twice toward the Q-J, the second after the miracle trump drop and reaching dummy with a fourth trump. If East has the A with one, two or three others, I am home. …

Jim Munday: Since I’ll need a minor miracle in hearts, I won’t press my luck by taking the spade finesse if I can avoid it. If East holds the A, I can put him on Morton’s fork by leading low clubs twice from dummy (once now and once after pulling trump). If he wins either club, I’ll have two pitches for dummy’s spades; if not, I will throw the third club on a diamond and establish a spade for my 12th trick.

Leif-Erik Stabell: I must try to play clubs twice through East. I will lead the Q next…which works fine if West has K-x-x-x K-x-x J-10-9-x x-x.

Thijs Veugen: I want to preserve communication to combine my (small) chances: clubs 3-3, A with East or a spade finesse. When the Q holds, I will (hopefully) pick up trumps, ending with a fourth trump to dummy to play another club.

John Lusky: I need a miracle in hearts but would like to avoid playing for any more luck in the black suits than I have to. Only this line works with the K offside and A-x-x-x…with East. If the Q wins, I will play West for a stiff K by leading the 10; then three more rounds of hearts ending in dummy, and another club creates a Morton’s fork for East.

Craig Satersmoen: It appears I’m doomed if West has the A (he would have led it holding the K), so it looks right to lead clubs from dummy twice to avoid the spade finesse. I will play East for a stiff jack in trumps.

Chris Willenken: Assuming I can pick up trumps, my best chance is a Morton’s fork against East by leading clubs through him twice. If I don’t lead a club at trick two (which only risks a ruff against sane opposition if West is void), my entries will be tangled…

Tim DeLaney: I must place the K in West to have a chance, either singleton or K-x-x. If West also had the A, he would surely cash it, so I place that card with East. … [I will play] East for a singleton J, but Line D doesn’t suffice. This will overcome a 4-2 club division with a Morton’s fork [against East].

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: I need a favorable trump lie (K opp. J-x-x, or K-x-x opp. J). This increases my chances in case West has K-x-x-x K J-10-x-x x-x-x-x; by playing clubs twice from dummy, I don’t need the K onside. …

Jonathan Mestel: Morton’s fork ups my odds considerably. If the Q holds, I’ll draw trumps with the Q and claim. Oh, and if West hasn’t seen our slam bidding before, he may not cover with K-x.

Rinus Balkenende: This problem needs a different presentation: Win K, lead towards Q; then how do you play?

Charles Blair: If the Q wins, I’ll lead the 9 next.

Julian Wightwick: If West has J-10, he is favorite to have short hearts; so I’ll play him for a singleton K. But I still need something more in the black suits and don’t want East to win the A and lead a spade before I know whether clubs are breaking. If the Q holds, I lead the 9 to the king and ace, draw trumps, cross back to dummy with the 2, and lead another club. …

Joshua Donn: I guess partner should have had more? The heart play seems a guess, but I want to lead clubs twice from dummy in case East has A-x [or A-x-x-x]. … If West wins the Q with the ace and returns a club, I may decide to win in hand (blocking the suit) to keep a crisscross squeeze alive.

Brad Theurer: I need a miracle in hearts (singleton king with West or singleton jack with East) but also have to try to avoid the spade hook if possible. East may take the A on air, or duck twice (possible Morton’s fork), or clubs may be 3-3. …

Subhransu Patnaik: Gives an additional chance if East has A-x [or A-x-x-x] by preserving entries.

Weidong Yang: Most cards are located from the need of the contract. This offers the best chance when the K is offside.

Carsten Kofoed: I’ll avoid the spade finesse and pick up J-x-x in East (unblocking the 10).

Daniel Bertrand: I have enough problems already; but if East has the A, I will not need the spade finesse. This also gives me one more round before deciding how to play trumps for no loser.

Bruce Neill: It seems better to play West for K-x-x than a singleton king, since it improves chances of East having the K or A… If East has, say, x-x-x-x J x-x-x-x A-x-x-x, I have to play towards the Q-J at trick two; otherwise, I will have entry problems. This is not very risky, since West might have led the A with five clubs and a possible trump trick.

Shawn Tate: I like to have more information before I commit to playing for the stiff king or stiff jack in hearts.

Barry White: This gives me the chance of East holding x-x-x-x-x J x-x-x-x-x A-x. … My next play will be to run the Q, winning five hearts, three clubs, three diamonds and a spade. … I like the idea of making 6  with the K offside, clubs 4-2, and trumps not splitting. Unlucky hand!

Ergun Bolek: I need a [lucky heart lie], but the K offside is no problem [if East has the A].

Wei Victor Zhang: … Plan is to play East for the A, so the location of the K won’t matter. If East ducks, I will next lead the 10; king, ace; then finesse East’s J, clear trumps, 2 to dummy, and another low club. If East ducks again, I’ll cash A-Q to pitch the K; then A and a spade…

Lajos Linczmayer: If the Consul General has the A, I don’t need the spade finesse; so I’ll play him for short hearts, e.g., x-x-x-x J x-x-x-x A-x-x-x.

Neelotpal Sahai: … If the Consul General has A-x or A-x-x-x, this [avoids the spade finesse]. The Ambassador may have led the A if held it. … Also, I must be sure to unblock when hearts are played next.

Barry Rigal: I need to get clubs going fast if East has the A. I may also get an idea about how to play hearts after the first round of clubs.

Manuel Paulo: Assuming West has K-x-x or a blank king, I can lead the suit from hand in each case. This postpones the crucial decision to trick three or later, and it wins against several West hands, such as K-x-x-x K-8-6 J-10-9-x x-x.

David Turner: I want to avoid the spade finesse with the A on my right. If the Q holds, I’ll lead the 10 to dummy (stiff king on my left); draw trumps; fourth trump to dummy; low club.

Jean-Christophe Clement: To see if it is possible to avoid the spade finesse.

Albert Ohana: Assuming clubs are 4-2 and hearts [can be picked up], I need to play clubs twice from dummy. If East does not play his ace, I have only one spade to lose [after pitching dummy’s last club].

Paul Inbona: To gather information.

Kevin Conway: Discovery play? If West wins, I will play West for a stiff K. If the Q holds, I will play East for a stiff J…

Len Vishnevsky: I need to pick up hearts, but I don’t necessarily need the spade finesse if East has the A — and I lead through him twice.

Lorand Dali: I plan to lead clubs twice from dummy. If East goes up with the ace, I can discard two spades…

Richard Stein: This will pick up [many] club lies…and the enemy plays may tell me which way to play trumps for no loser.

Paulino Correa: If East has the A, I will not have to finesse for the K by playing clubs from dummy twice. I’ll be able to discard either two spades on the A and J, or the K on the A. I cannot lose a trump trick, so I [must decide whether] to lead the Q to play East for a singleton jack, or the 10 to play West for a singleton king — and also unblock to reach dummy later via the 7.

Micah Fogel: I am going to have to guess trumps one of these days, but I want to find out about clubs first. Besides getting the right entry setup, this might help me figure out how to play trumps.

Sandy Barnes: Trying to avoid the spade finesse.

Jack Shinehoft: I need to lead clubs twice from dummy… and I must start early to have the entries to [benefit].

Ed Barnes: East is likely to have the A, as West didn’t lead it. Therefore, I can throw East onto the prongs of Morton’s fork twice — once now and once after drawing trumps. … [Picking up] trumps seems to be guesswork…

Anthony Golding: Keeping communications open to play clubs twice from dummy while drawing trumps…

Paul Huggins: I have a certain club loser, so I need…to pick up trumps with no loser (singleton K with West or singleton J with East). Leading the Q is perhaps more likely to succeed [because of] the Chinese finesse possibility that West doesn’t cover with K-x; however, I will play a round of clubs to see if anyone wins the ace before deciding my trump play.

Jack Presser: Playing West for a singleton K, and East for the A. If East takes the A, I can pitch two spades; or if he holds up twice, I can pitch the K. …

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 3

Rubber Bridge None Vul	7 3 K 5 3 2 A K 4 A K 4 2		Ambass. WEST 2 Pass	Jo North Dbl Pass	General East Pass Pass	You South 3 NT1
Lead: K		East wins A
3 NT South	10 6 4 2 A 6 4 Q 10 6 3 Q 6		1. four sixes must be worth something

East shifts to the J (West will play the 5).

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Win Q; K (both follow); A	10	116	13
C. Win Q; K (both follow); A	9	45	5
A. Win Q; duck a heart	8	305	34
B. Win Q; K (both follow); duck a heart	7	268	30
E. Win Q; K (both follow); lead 4	4	29	3
F. Duck the J	3	134	15

Despite the egregious 3 NT bid, you stumbled into a sound contract — even without a spade stopper — as the spade suit will always block unless West holds A-K-Q-J (or rarely, a five-bagger with three honors). All you need is your fourth diamond to be good, either by the J falling or a successful finesse against East. That decision, however, can wait. First you should try to find out as much as you can about the enemy distribution.

For starters, you know West has six spades (else the defense is too deep for this planet). Therefore, if you cash two rounds of clubs and hearts, and West follows to both, you have a lock: Cash the other top club to pitch a heart, then play three rounds of diamonds finessing the 10. If it loses, West can have nothing but spades left, so he must give you the 10, as well as an entry to recover the lost Q. Sweet, but there is no assurance that West will follow to two clubs and two hearts. If he shows out of either suit, it will be difficult to get a complete count of his distribution. Consider this layout:

Rubber Bridge	7 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	K 5 3 2		1 W	K	3	A	2
	A K 4		2 E	J	Q	5	2
	A K 4 2		3 S	4?	10	2?	7
K Q J 9 8 5		A	4 W	Q	7	8	4
10		Q J 9 8 7	5 W	7	A	3	6
9 5		J 8 7 2	6 N	3	9	A	5
9 8 7 5		J 10 3	7 S	3	5	A	2
	10 6 4 2		8 N	K	10	6	8
	A 6 4		9 N	K	J	6	8
	Q 10 6 3		10 N	K	7	6	9
3 NT South	Q 6		Declarer can succeed w/guess

Suppose you win the Q and follow the popular Line A, ducking a heart. This is safe for the moment (West cannot set you) and provides the extra chance of a 3-3 heart break; but you’ll eventually have to guess the distribution. The same problem arises if you win the K first (Line B). The obstacle you can’t overcome is to find out who has the fourth club.

Therein lies the solution. If you first find out how many clubs West has, you have a guaranteed path against any distribution. Only Line D is foolproof. If West follows to three clubs, there are several sure continuations. Simplest is to cash the A, K*, A-K, and finesse the 10. If this loses, West must be 6=1=3=3, and he will be endplayed to give you the 10 and the stranded Q.

*Exception: If West is void in hearts, instead cross to the A and lead the fourth club (pitching your last heart). If West wins, diamonds must be 3-3; if East wins, West must have four diamonds, so he can be endplayed with a spade after winning the K and K. Also note the importance of cashing the A first: If you cash the K and West is void, then lead a club to discover the club lie, your hand will be squeezed if West has the fourth club. Ouch!

Alternatively, you could lead the fourth club immediately after both follow to three rounds. This will reveal the club layout without risk, then cashing both top hearts will disclose West’s complete distribution. Even if West has J-x-x-x, you will have a read-out for the sure endplay.

What about ducking a club early (Line E or F)? Won’t this also discover the exact club layout? Yes, but the information will be insufficient if West has one or two clubs. You then won’t be able to find out how many hearts West has, as it is too late to duck a heart, because West may win and cash the setting tricks (remember, you already lost a club).

With Line D, you can cope with any contingency. If West shows out on the third club (you pitch a heart), you will know the club layout. Next cash A-K.* If West follows to both hearts, lead three rounds of diamonds, finessing the 10; if West can win, he will be endplayed in spades. If West shows out on the second heart, he must have four diamonds; so cash A-K, then endplay him with a spade.

*Alternatively, also a lock, is to win the A and duck a heart. Whoever wins cannot have enough tricks to set you, and you will later win the K to get a complete count. Ducking the first heart would be a mistake, as West might win, cash one spade and exit with a diamond; then you can’t benefit from the free finesse with hearts blocked, nor negotiate an endplay, so you’ll fail if West is 6=1=4=2 with J-x-x-x.

An interesting variation (unrelated to the problem) occurs if West has a singleton club. Then you must stop leading clubs, cash the K* (key play) and duck a heart. If West wins with 6=2=4=1, he will be endplayed after cashing one spade; the blocked diamond suit doesn’t matter since you have the A entry.

*If you duck the first heart, West may win, cash one spade and exit with a heart. You can still succeed, but there is no lock. For example, if you win the K and continue with A, A-K and A, catering to the endplay, you might discover that West has four hearts (6=4=2=1) leaving you dead in the water. Of course, the Ambassador may have this in mind anyway.

A close second goes to Line C (winning the Q and cashing two hearts) which loses in the rare event West is 6=4=2=1*, or possibly if he is void in hearts and you guess wrong. Note that if West has a singleton heart and follows to three clubs, it makes no difference who has the fourth club, as three rounds of diamonds, finessing the 10 provides a lock.

*If West has one club and follows to two hearts, best continuation is to lead a third heart. Unless West is 6-4 in the majors, this will either establish dummy’s fourth heart or obtain a complete count.

Third place is a toss-up (decided by the voting) between Lines A and B, either of which loses the lock when West has a singleton heart and follows to three clubs. Once a trick is lost, you lose the opportunity for the free diamond finesse, so you must guess the layout. Line E is considerably worse, losing a lock in the more common case when West has two clubs and 2-3 hearts. Line F is worst, losing additionally when West has one club.

Comments for D. Win Q; K (both follow); A

Jordi Sabate: I have to know if West has a maximum of two diamonds (or the exact number). Playing three rounds of clubs is a good start. If he has two clubs, I will play A and duck a heart. If he has 3+ clubs, I will play my last club. Either way, I will have a complete count… If West has two diamonds, A-K then finesse; if exactly three, A-K-Q; if four or more, a squeeze throw-in.

Rainer Herrmann: Cashing clubs first until West shows out guarantees the contract. Of course, in [some] cases an endplay against West will be required.

Perry Groot: With 4+ diamonds in West, I will easily get a count and can throw West in if necessary. The problem occurs when West has two or three diamonds. … If West follows to three clubs, play the fourth club, as West can only have one or two hearts. If West has only two clubs, [win the A] and duck a heart, as West may have two or three hearts. This gives a complete count without surrendering more than four tricks.

Jim Munday: I must get a count on the West hand, then play diamonds accordingly. … If West shows out on the third club, I will duck the second heart, as either player will have only two winners to cash. If West is 6=1=4=2, I can squeeze him; otherwise, I will be able to play diamonds for four tricks with a complete count. Lastly, if West follows to all three clubs, I will play a fourth club; whoever wins the trick, I will have a full count on the West hand without ducking a heart. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: I will play a fourth club if everyone follows; otherwise, [win the A] and duck a heart. This should give a complete count. …

Thijs Veugen: Given that both follow on the K, I’ll succeed assuming West has six spades. Continue with A-K, A-K and the diamond finesse (assuming East follows). If West has J-x-x, he will have to give me a spade trick.

John Lusky: The trick is to get a complete count…so I know how to play diamonds. If both follow to three clubs, I will continue with a fourth round as I pitch hearts from hand; then two top hearts will find out what I need to know. … If West shows out on the third club, I will play a heart to the ace and a second heart, planning to duck if West follows; then the K later will get the count. If West shows out on first or second heart, I will know he has diamond length and throw him in with a spade after cashing A-K.

Chris Willenken: Playing clubs allows a 100-percent claim. If West shows out on the third club, [winning the A] and ducking a heart will allow a complete count, with neither opponent able to cash more than two other tricks. If West follows to three clubs, play the fourth club, after which cashing A-K in both red suits will yield a complete count.

Tim DeLaney: The sure-trick plan is to play clubs until somebody shows out. … The prettiest variation occurs when West is 6=2=3=2 [with J-x-x]. After cashing all the clubs and hearts, I play A-K and finesse the 10; West wins but is endplayed in spades, and the Q gets resurrected.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: [If West follows to three clubs], cash A-K, A-K and play a diamond to the 10 (unless East shows out, in which case I play the queen then the 10, and West has to give me the 10). If the diamond finesse loses to the jack, West will have only spades left; he can take two high spades but I make the last two tricks with the 10 and Q. … Exception: If West is void in hearts (e.g., K-Q-J-x-x-x — J-x-x J-x-x-x), I must play differently and [lead a fourth club].

Jonathan Mestel: If I avoid losing a heart or club, I can afford a losing diamond finesse. …

Julian Wightwick: I am 100 percent now, a vindication of my bold bidding. Once I have a complete count, I can arrange a fourth diamond trick. If West follows to three clubs, I lead a fourth round, pitching hearts. If he shows out on the…third club, I [win the A] and duck a heart. If it turns out that West guards diamonds, either East will [rectify the count] for a squeeze, or I will cash A-K and throw West in with the 7.

N. Scott Cardell: This one I know I can make! Given that West has six spades, this is a sure-trick play. … I discard a heart on the third club; and if both follow, I lead dummy’s last club, discarding another heart. Regardless of who wins, two rounds of hearts will be sufficient to count the hand. … If West discards on the third club, I [win the A] and duck a heart. If West wins,…he hasn’t room for four diamonds; if East wins, I get my count. … If West had discarded on the first or second club, I would have switched to hearts immediately, cashing the K and ducking a heart.

Brad Theurer: I need to get a count without giving up too many tricks or options. If West discards on the third club, I’ll [win the A] and duck a heart to cater for 3-3 hearts and to get a [complete] count. If West follows to three clubs, I’ll play a fourth club to get the club count, then A-K later will get enough information to know what to do in diamonds. If West is 6=1=4=2, he may get strip-squeezed later on.

Dale Freeman: If West has only two clubs, I will [win the A] and duck a heart (neither opponent can cash more than two more tricks). If both follow in clubs, I’ll exit with the last club to find the club distribution. In both cases the distribution will be apparent to play diamonds to advantage.

Daniel Bertrand: If clubs are 4-3, I will give up a club (pitching two hearts from hand). If West wins, he cannot hurt me; if East wins, I’ll win A-K to know what to do in diamonds. If clubs are 5-2, I’ll win A-K. If West is 6=1=4=2, I’ll unblock A-K and endplay West with a spade. If West follows to two hearts, I’ll cash A-K and finesse the 10; if West wins the jack, he is down to all spades and must give me the 10 [and the Q].

Bruce Neill: I’ll keep playing clubs until someone shows out. If all follow to three clubs, play a fourth; [whoever] wins, I will get a complete count by cashing A-K. … If West shows out on the third club, [win the A] and duck a heart to get the count for a finesse, drop, or throw-in… If West shows out on second club, cash the K and duck a heart; if West wins with 6=2=4=1, he is endplayed; else I get the count for a finesse or drop. …

Shawn Tate: Depending on what West does on the third club and second heart, I’ll know whether to try for the endplay against West or the finesse against East.

Barry White: The most fun hand of the set. Playing the third top club is the road to determine West’s distribution. If he follows, ace and another heart does the job. If he shows out, [ace] and ducking a heart [will discover] if West has two or three hearts… If West has only one heart (6=1=4=2), he is subject to a squeeze [and throw-in].

Bill Powell: Then the red A-Ks and a diamond finesse. …

John Reardon: I want to get a count before I broach diamonds. My 10 has become a stopper, so I can duck a heart; the only problem is that West might be 6=1=2=4 or 6=1=3=3. The solution is to exit with the fourth club if both followed to three rounds. If West wins, he has three red cards; if East wins, West has four red cards. If West shows out on the third club, [win the A] and duck a heart. East can win only two clubs, or West two spades, so they may as well return a heart at once. If hearts don’t split, I’ll know either that West is 6=2=3=2 and diamonds are splitting, or 6=1=4=2 and West can be thrown in.

Paul Misso: Getting the most information about West’s distribution may lead to a proved finesse against East’s J…

Frans Buijsen: Trying to count the hand. I’ll play the A and duck a heart next [if West has two clubs]. This gives me maximum data for the diamond decision, and may [uncover] an extra chance to throw West in.

Jon Greiman: The trick is to get a count of the hand safely. After this, depending on how many round cards West has, I will know how to play the diamond suit.

Robert Meakins: … If West has [two clubs] and follows to two hearts, he can be endplayed by playing off all winners except the Q and taking the diamond finesse (unless East shows out, then play Q, 10). …

Dick Yuen: Clarifying the club situation is a great help. For example, if West shows out on the third club [and follows to one heart], cashing A-K, A-K and a diamond finesse is a certainty.

Manfred Schwab: Since West is marked with six spades, I want to find out if he has room for more than two diamonds. Next I’ll cash the high hearts before deciding [how to play diamonds].

Ove Nilsson: I’ll strip West of his cards in hearts and clubs; then A-K and finesse if East follows low. [If the finesse loses], West must now give me a ninth trick in spades.

Robert Howard: [I expect] to endplay West if he has four diamonds; otherwise, finesse.

David Goldstein: I want to get a count on West to determine how to play the diamonds. I may end up with a marked finesse through East, or a case in which a 3-3 split [and a losing finesse would endplay West].

Douglas Dunn: I aim to find out West’s shape before playing diamonds. Throw a heart on third club. If West has two clubs, I’ll play A and duck a heart. If West follows to three clubs, I’ll play a fourth round (discarding another heart) to find out if West has three or four clubs; if West wins and returns a diamond, I’ll play the ace.

Gordon Humphrys: Lets get a count, then diamonds may not be a guess.

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 4

Rubber Bridge N-S Vul	A K 10 3 J 6 2 10 6 2 K Q 4		Ambass. West Pass Pass All Pass	Jo NORTH 1 1 5	General East Pass Pass Pass	You South 1 4 NT 6 NT
Lead: J		East plays 5
6 NT South	J 5 Q 8 5 4 A K Q J 3 A 2

Your 1 must be an audition for Psycho.

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Win A; lead 5	10	189	21
F. Win A; K-Q	8	51	6
B. Win A; run J	7	162	18
A. Win Q; lead 2	6	189	21
E. Win A; run diamonds	4	173	19
C. Win A; finesse 10	2	133	15

Well, there you are; up another creek without a paddle. Stopping the heart lead didn’t really help much, as even a successful spade finesse gives you only 11 tricks. On the surface it looks like the only hope is to find a stiff Q. Line E or F will cater to that, but it feels like chasing rainbows. Help!

What about a squeeze? If West holds Q-x-x-x and A-K, he can be squeezed without the count (delayed-duck type) by any of Lines B, C and F. Alas, that’s impossible, as West was on lead against 6 NT. What if East has 9-x-x-x and A-K, i.e., the spade finesse works but East stops the fourth round? No, East cannot be squeezed because he will just keep parity with dummy, and you have no late hand entry to reach the heart you establish.

Perhaps a throw-in? If you run your minor suits and West has Q-x-x-x, he will have to discard down to one heart. If that card is an honor, you have a chance. Consider this layout:

Rubber Bridge	A K 10 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	J 6 2		1 W	J	4	3	A
	10 6 2		2 S	2?	8	Q	5
	K Q 4		3 N	K	6	4	10
Q 9 7 2		8 6 4	4 N	2	4	A	5
K 9 3		A 10 7	5 S	3	7	10	8
7 5		9 8 4	6 N	6	9	K	3
J 10 9 8		7 6 5 3	7 S	Q	9	2	7
	J 5		8 S	J	9	6	4
	Q 8 5 4		continued below…
	A K Q J 3
6 NT South	A 2

After cashing clubs first (Line F) then diamonds, you will reach this ending:

NT win 4	A K 10 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	J		9 S	5	K	J
	—		Declarer fails
	—
Q 9 7 2		8 6
K		A 10
—		—
—		7
	J 5
	Q 8 5
	—
South leads	—

Alas, when you exit with a heart, the defense has three ways to beat you: (1) East can win and cash his club, (2) East can win and lead a spade, or (3) West can win and lead the Q. If the heart honors were switched, you’d have greater hopes; but even then, West should know you have at most two spades and lead the Q.* Even so, the Ambassador had a big dinner, so you might catch him napping.

*Alternatively, West could pitch the A to avail the other two options.

The way to provide a fair chance is to lead one round of hearts yourself. Then, if the second heart isn’t cashed, you may have a squeeze. The next question is which way to attack hearts. Second hand will usually play low, so consider the outcome: Leading to the queen (Line A) is unlikely to leave a squeeze because your remaining threats ( J and fourth spade) are both in dummy, and East pitches after.* Conversely, leading to the jack (Line D) is promising because your remaining threats ( Q and fourth spade) are split. Further, if East wins the heart, a diamond return is likely in view of dummy — diamonds were unbid in your sneaky operation.

*A squeeze will work then only if East has both 10-9 so the 8 can be the threat.

Besides the main hope to steal, leading hearts also offers two legitimate chances: (1) West holding a blank heart honor and Q-x-x or shorter, or (2) East holding a blank heart honor and x-x-x or shorter. In either case, the defender who wins is helpless to stop the squeeze against his partner.

This is a difficult problem to score because most lines offer opportunities for misdefense, and I clearly stated the defenders were not experts. Even running the J (Line B) has a chance the Ambassador won’t cover. Which defense is worse? Not covering the J? Or not exiting with the Q if endplayed? The latter seems a more likely mistake to me, so I’ll rank Line F ahead of Line B. (Line F also caters to a blank Q, but trying for the bogus endplay is surely better.)

The next decision is where to rank the inferior heart swindle (Line A), which curiously received the same number of votes as Line D. Line A requires A-10-9 or K-10-9 (any length) with East, as well as Q-x-x (or shorter) with West and misdefense* — quite a parlay. Thus, I think the single blunder of Line B is more apt to occur, so Line B gets third place, and Line A fourth.

*Unless East has a stiff heart honor and x-x-x or shorter.

Running diamonds first (Line E) is poor, as it ruins the endplay chance since you will perforce end in dummy after cashing clubs; i.e., West can then keep Q-x-x along with K-x (or A-x). Of course, you could run the J instead (after cashing diamonds), but West is sure to cover then, as he can see 12 tricks if he doesn’t.

Worst of all is to finesse the 10 immediately (Line C) as it caters to only one legitimate chance (stiff Q West) and kills any endplay hopes. Even if followed by a heart lead, this comes from the wrong hand to be effective (probably); and if you cross to hand in diamonds, you give away your little secret. Further, either defender could break up the squeeze by leading a second spade.

Comments for D. Win A; lead 5

Jordi Sabate: My plan is that East wins this trick and (hopefully) plays another suit. Then I can squeeze West if he has the other heart honor and Q-x-x-x. I don’t think this works in real life — the Ambassador hesitates, so the Consul General returns a heart. Do I call the Director? …

No, as they will call, “Guard!” Then you can put your head between your knees and kiss your ass good-bye.

Rainer Herrmann: The chance for a singleton Q seems tiny… so I better hope for a defensive error. If West has the Q, heart honors are split, and opponents fail to cash out, I can [squeeze] an opponent with long spades and the remaining heart honor.

Perry Groot: Hopefully, East wins and plays anything but a heart. Then I will be able to squeeze West if he has Q-x-x-x and a heart honor.

Rob Stevens: Hoping the heart honors are split, and that East wins and doesn’t realize the need to lead a heart back. Then I can squeeze West if he Q-x-x-x.

Jim Munday: I’ll need the spade finesse and a major-suit squeeze… If East holds A-K and spade length, a squeeze without the count will not operate, as I don’t have a late entry to the heart in my hand. Thus, I need to find split honors and lose a heart to the hand without spade length. … Not knowing the spade distribution, leading to the Q has the advantage that West is less likely to return a heart… However, this leaves the 8 as my threat, which requires East to have A-10-9 or K-10-9… By leading to the J, I only need West to hold one of the top honors… Also, the spade hook is more likely to succeed if West has the spade length. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: Apart from the legitimate chance of finding West with Q-x-x and a singleton heart honor, the main hope is that [whoever] takes this trick fails to continue hearts.

Thijs Veugen: I’ll continue the psych by playing a heart to the jack. If A-K are split, East might shift (or have no choice with a stiff heart honor). Then I have a genuine chance if the spade finesse is on, and the long spade is with the remaining heart honor.

John Lusky: If I didn’t know that West can’t have A-K, I might try the legitimate strip squeeze. As it is, I must follow my lie in the bidding with a swindle in the play. The idea is to lose a heart to one player, have him not realize what I’m up to and return a non-heart; then squeeze his partner in the majors. [Conceivably], a player could have a stiff heart honor [leaving no defense].

Craig Satersmoen: Let East make the easy diamond return while I rectify the count.

Chris Willenken: I hope East wins and doesn’t return a heart, so I can squeeze West in the majors.

Tim DeLaney: Hoping that West ducks and East returns a non-heart to develop a major-suit squeeze against West. Taking the spade finesse first would force me to reenter my hand with a diamond, telling East that diamonds are not a weak point.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: The Q must be onside, and I must lose a heart to the opponent with less than four spades and not have a heart returned. Then I can win the 12th trick with a squeeze. This gives the chance that West ducks the heart with Q-x-x-x, or hops with K-x and Q-x-x. Because of the special circumstances that ethical problems (e.g., West hesitating with K-x) will not be ruled in my favor, I need to take some time before playing a heart, so the Ambassador can work out that I might hold A-10-x-x-x, and duck smoothly…

Jonathan Mestel: There is no genuine pressure if opponents defend well, so not Line E or F. Attacking spades makes it too easy for them to break up the squeeze by accident, so not Line B or C. … [I don’t know] which of them is more likely to lead a second heart, but more squeezes work if I keep the Q. … If West huddles and plays low, I’m sure the Ambassador’s guards will rule in my favor.

Charles Blair: If West has Q-x-x-x K-9 x-x J-10-9-x-x, maybe he’ll play me for x A-Q-8-x A-K-Q-x A-x-x-x.* The clash of cymbals in the movie led me to expect a more exotic role for the J. …

*Charles’s example, no doubt intended, is like a classic Hitchcock ending: thought provoking but maybe too subtle. West must win the K and return a spade to break up a double squeeze. -RP

Julian Wightwick: I hope the heart honors are split, that East doesn’t continue the suit, and that West has Q-x-x-x. It’s a shame I don’t have a third spade.

N. Scott Cardell: This is just about the opposite of Problem 3. Here I have only remote legitimate chances, so my best hope is a deceptive play… With A-K, West would have led them; and if East held A-K, he might have doubled 6 NT or bid over 1 ; so the odds are well over 2:1 that the heart honors are split. In addition to the Q onside, I either need West to duck the J, or to isolate the heart threat and find one player guarding hearts and spades for a squeeze. … A good player should have no trouble covering the J. …

Joshua Donn: Sad to say, I know altogether too many people who really would respond 1 on this hand. Leading toward the J makes it easier for opponents to cash both hearts right away…, but it’s necessary to [have fair squeeze chances]. I’ll do this while they have safe exit [cards], and hope that my 1  bid still has impetus.

Brad Theurer: I could try Line B and hope West doesn’t cover, but there is a legitimate squeeze chance if an opponent holds 4+ spades and A-x-x-x-x or K-x-x-x-x. … I also might make without a legitimate chance if whoever wins does not return a heart…

Subhransu Patnaik: Heart honors are likely to be split, and it [may be] difficult for either defender to win and lead back a heart. If East wins and returns another suit, it is possible to squeeze West in spades and hearts.

Dale Freeman: I see no technical play that has any percentage, so I attack hearts as if I have them. Line A may get East to duck, but I cannot squeeze him later; therefore, Line D.

Carsten Kofoed: Opponents cannot see my five diamond tricks, so they’re unaware that a heart continuation may be needed to beat this slam.

Daniel Bertrand: East could have three small spades and a singleton heart honor, West could have Q-x-x and a singleton heart honor…, or my non-expert opponents could have an accident.

Shawn Tate: It looks like the spade finesse has to work, …the heart honors have to be split, and [whoever] wins the heart must not lead a heart back. At least the bidding got West off to the wrong lead.

Wei Victor Zhang: … The Q must be finessed successfully, and I hope West’s K or A won’t win [if he has 4+ spades]. …

Del Knox: A singleton heart honor…combined with a spade finesse and a squeeze is a [legitimate] chance.

Lajos Linczmayer: [Assuming the heart honors are split], there are two chances: (1) The Ambassador has Q-x-x-x and plays a low heart… or (2) he has Q-x-x and wins his heart honor. Anyway, I will offer them cigars, before they can show any shock.

David Grainger: Playing West for Q-x-x-x or longer and one heart honor, hoping he ducks and East won’t continue.

Neelotpal Sahai: The 11th trick will come from a successful spade finesse (mandatory), and the 12th will come from a spade-heart squeeze. On the outside chance that West has a singleton Q, finessing the 10 should be adopted versus running the J. Also, the heart should be lost to East so that West can be squeezed in the majors. The diamond position should not be revealed, lest East may continue hearts…

John Reardon: If West holds Q-x-x-x and ducks his heart honor, and East does not return a heart, I am in business; a spade-heart squeeze will now operate on West. Not much hope otherwise.

Barry Rigal: I need a spade finesse plus a squeeze. My plan is to keep the Q in hand and four spades in dummy. Yes, leading a heart to the queen at trick two is more deceptive, but it [greatly reduces] squeeze chances…

Paul Misso: I need deception to bring this one in, so I’ll give up a heart early. The plan is to squeeze the opponent with the remaining heart honor and 4+ spades.

Manuel Paulo: If East has a hand like 9-x-x-x A-10-9-7-3 x x-x-x, he will be squeezed in the majors, for which I must rectify the count. …

Jean-Christophe Clement: To build a spade-heart squeeze against West.

Albert Ohana: Assuming West has Q-x-x-x and a heart honor, if East wins and returns [anything but a heart], West will be squeezed…

Thomas Raymond: Playing East for 9-x-x-x A-x-x-x x-x x-x-x.

Bill Erwin: [This offers] a legitimate chance when either opponent has a stiff heart honor, his partner has 4+ spades, and the Q is onside. Playing toward the J preserves the Q as a threat if either opponent wins and doesn’t continue hearts.

Gonzalo Goded: I’m doomed. The Ambassador and Consul General will help themselves by [breaking tempo], and it’s not like I’m going to call director under the circumstances. :(

Robert Meakins: [Little] chance against proper defense, but the best hope is to lead to the J and hope the heart honors are split. Best scenario is for East to win and return anything else; then squeeze West in hearts and spades (with the finesse).

Robert Dannels: The Q must be with West, and heart honors split. I hope to lose a heart to East to set up a squeeze against West.

Steve White: I need to squeeze someone in the majors. The 8 is very unlikely to be a successful squeeze card against East, so I must play this way and hope opponents don’t take two hearts right away. …

Mauri Saastamoinen: I am a simple soul and cannot see any other way to survive. West should have something like Q-x-x-x-(x) and the A or K. After a smooth duck by West, and a non-heart continuation by East, there is true squeeze against poor West.

Marek Malowidzki: Preparing for a squeeze against West. I must hope that West will duck, and East will not lead another heart. The spade finesse must win.

Kevin Conway: Playing for Q-x-x-x with West, heart honors split, the J losing to East, and no heart continuation.

Gerald Cohen: If West is looking at Q-x-x, he may rise [with his heart honor], giving me a chance to squeeze East with four small spades and the other heart honor.

Simon Cheung: Even if the Q is right, there are just 11 tricks; so I need to score a heart or rely on major-suit squeeze (simple or without the count). I want to preserve the Q in hand as a squeeze [menace]. If I lead toward the Q, losing to West, it is certain that East holds the remaining high heart, and East can’t be squeezed [using the J] menace. …

Roger Morton: I will lose a heart before opponents know what’s going on, and later try to squeeze West in the majors.

Jouko Paganus: My actual choice would be to win the Q and lead the J, hoping to squeeze East with the A and 4+ spades (without the queen), but it was not on the list.* Now I must rely on East not returning a heart.

*I didn’t include it just for this reason, i.e., to avoid a debate over two reasonable options. Even so, I think it is inferior because bad things may happen, e.g., if East covers the jack with the king (a routine play), he won’t need a crystal ball to figure out why he won the trick. -RP

Tommy Suhendra: The A-K must be split in order to have a chance… By playing a heart from hand, West [may] take his K, then a squeeze will be perfect against East if he has the long spade [without the Q].

Carlos Dabezies: If heart honors are split and West has Q-x-x-x, there will be a squeeze if East wins and doesn’t return a heart.

Valentin Dumitru: Hoping West has Q-x-x-x and five hearts (A-10-9-7-3 or K-10-9-7-3).

Julian Pottage: … If West has Q-x-x or shorter and wins his heart honor, and does not (or cannot) return the suit, there will be a squeeze.

Jon Sorkin: Hoping for a major-suit squeeze if opponents don’t cash two hearts. I need to pitch dummy’s hearts on diamonds.

J.J. Gass: Hey, don’t knock the 1 bid! It stopped the lead, didn’t it? Running winners to fool opponents into both retaining a heart guard (and unguarding spades) doesn’t seem likely to work; my scheme [will be obvious when] they see I have five diamond tricks. … If whoever wins this trick fails to find a heart return, I may be able to catch his partner in a major-suit squeeze. I lead the 5 rather than the 2 because it will leave me threats in both hands, and a possible squeeze against either opponent…

Jaap Ravenhorst: Playing West for one heart honor and Q-x-x-x.

Gabriel Ip: With 10 top tricks, my [best] chance is to keep up the barefaced bluff. The A-K should be split…, and I hope [whoever wins] continues clubs. Then I will clear clubs and diamonds, hoping to squeeze West with Q-x-x-x [or East with 9-x-x-x].

Dick Henry: I have to find a singleton A or K; then in some scenarios, his partner gets squeezed. For example, East may have 4+ spades (without the queen) and five hearts.

George Klemic: … It looks like the best chance is to find West with Q-x-x-x and one heart honor; and since I need West to retain his heart honor, I should lead low towards dummy. I must do this early, so it will be more difficult for the defense to [realize] the situation.

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 5

Rubber Bridge None Vul	J 10 9 6 5 A K 5 3 Q 10 7 4		Ambass. West Pass Pass Pass All Pass	Jo North 3 4 5	General EAST Pass Pass Pass Pass	You South 1 4 1 5 2 7
Lead: 8		East pitches 5
7 South	A K Q 4 3 Q 10 A K 5 3 K 3		1. trying to stop a club lead 2. a little reinforcement

You win four trumps ending in hand, as only clubs are pitched.

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
F. Win Q; A-K	10	132	15
E. Win Q; finesse 10	9	286	32
B. Win Q; A-K	8	94	10
D. Win Q; finesse 10	6	165	18
C. Win Q; Q	3	57	6
A. Lead your last trump	2	163	18

From the bidding, you might have a brighter future as a circus performer (assuming you have any future), as even the Ringling Brothers would be impressed. Bidding a grand off an ace should liven up any side show — if you make the contract.

The problem boils down to two realistic options: (1) Finesse for a red jack, or (2) Ruff out one red suit and hope the other is protected by the player with the A for a squeeze. Actually this amounts to four options, as in either case you can choose which red suit to involve. Line D or E caters to the finesse, and Line B or F caters to the squeeze.

Some people questioned leading a fourth round of trumps, but this seems reasonable. The only thing lost is the negligible luxury of catering to a blank jack in the red suit chosen for a squeeze (Line B or F); while forcing another discard might have been helpful, particularly against less-than-expert opponents.*

*I deliberately did not state which clubs were pitched (except the 5 at trick one, which is ambiguous with the 2 missing) because the information is suspect anyway. Further, it would seldom be wise to base your play of a grand slam on an opponent’s signal. Of course, being at the table and knowing your opponents could make a difference, but a four-board history against this pair does not seem enough.

What can you deduce about the enemy hands? The Ambassador’s trump lead surely denies the A, as he would hardly put any faith in your bidding after witnessing the first four hands. You just overbid to 6 NT off the A-K, so bidding seven off a cashable ace would be more or less in stride. The  A would be on the table if he had it. Therefore, as far as known cards, which is the basis for figuring percentages, I’ll assume East has one (the A) and West has three (the missing spades). No other deductions should be made, as a trump lead from x-x-x is normal against a grand slam (lacking an ace).

The 3:1 assumption of known cards means a 10:12 proportion in vacant spaces. Thus, East is more likely to have any missing card (most notably the J or J) and East is more likely to have greater length in any specific red suit. This clearly shows that Line E is better than Line D, because only the heart finesse goes through East; but it still leaves an unanswered question. Which is more likely: East having the J, or East having longer hearts? By my calculations, East having the J is 54.55 percent, while East having longer hearts is 61.61 percent. This shows that playing for the squeeze is better than the finesse. Another factor, though of minor significance, is that you go down two with a losing finesse but only one with a failing squeeze.

Alas, this still doesn’t solve the problem. You can squeeze East in either hearts (Line F) or diamonds (Line B), and the chances to find the needed red-suit length are identical. Nonetheless, there are two edges for Line F: (1) The heart-club squeeze is automatic, so if by some miracle West has the A and 4+ hearts, it still works, and (2) East had an opportunity to open 3  and didn’t, which means his side length is more likely to be in a major; e.g., 0=4=3=6 is more likely than 0=3=4=6. Here’s a layout that shows how Line F (and only Line F) will succeed:

Rubber Bridge	J 10 9 6 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	A K 5 3		1 W	8	5	5	A
	Q 10		2 S	K	2	6	6
	7 4		3 S	3	7	J	9
8 7 2		—	4 N	9	J	Q	2
J 6		9 8 7 4 2	5 S	3!	2	Q	4
9 7 6 2		J 8 4	6 N	10!	J	A	6
Q 10 8 2		A J 9 6 5	7 S	K	7	4	8
	A K Q 4 3		8 S	5	9	10	2
	Q 10		continued below…
	A K 5 3
7 South	K 3

After winning four trumps, you continue with three top diamonds and a ruff to reach this ending with North on lead:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	A K 5 3		9 N	3	4	Q	6
	—		10 S	4	8	7	?
	7		East is squeezed
—		—
J 6		9 8 7 4
—		—
Q 10 8		A
	4
	Q 10
	—
North leads	K 3

Next cross to the Q and lead your last trump, pitching the club from dummy. East is squeezed, and you win the rest. Note that if West held the A and four hearts, he would be squeezed as well.

Based on the 10:12 proportion of vacant spaces, there seems no doubt that Line F is best. Nonetheless, some will argue that East is not such an overwhelming favorite to hold the A, or that his discards alter the vacant-space proportion. The latter is a puzzling issue, since East becomes marked with 5+ clubs (assuming the A), while West reveals only three spades and one club (though the auction implies he has 3+ clubs). Nonetheless, chosen plays do not significantly change the original odds. Some holdings become impossible (e.g., East can no longer hold six hearts and three diamonds), but the relative odds of possibilities that remain are virtually the same.*

*To better understand this, consider an analogy: Suppose each opponent is known to have three hearts, and you have a two-way finesse for the Q. East then voluntarily shows you one of his cards, which is a low heart. Does this change the odds on who has the queen? Hardly.

Based on subjective deductions, one could argue a case for any of Lines B, D and E. For example, some suggested that West’s trump lead implied an honor in each side suit (hence the J), but I don’t buy this. Leading from a worthless side suit is more likely to help declarer in a grand slam than leading from three low trumps. Thus, playing West for the J (Line D) must be odds-against.

Second place is a close call between Lines B and E. Since it is absolutely clear that Line B is inferior to Line F, but a matter of subjectivity regarding Line E (depending on how often West may have the A), it seems only fair to give second place to Line E, and a close third to Line B. The voting also preferred Line E to Line B by a wide margin.

Regardless of subjectivity, Lines A and C are surely worst. Line C caters to a blank jack in either red suit, failing which leading the last trump will recover by a repeating triple squeeze* if East is precisely 0=4=4=5 with the A. Line A is slightly worse, being able to cater to only one blank jack.

*This necessarily must gain two tricks, because one trick was given away by eschewing a ruff. Once both queens are cashed, however, there is no other hope but to lead a fifth trump.

Comments for F. Win Q; A-K

Jordi Sabate: Intending to reach a five-card ending: A-K-5-3 7 opposite 3 Q-10 K-3. Then [a heart to the queen] and the 3 will squeeze whoever has heart length and the A. I could instead squeeze East with diamond length and the A, but that’s only a [positional] squeeze, although East is a favorite to have the A.

Rainer Herrmann: East is more likely to have refrained from preempting with long clubs and four hearts than with four diamonds.

Perry Groot: My guess is to go for a squeeze: 4+ hearts or 4+ diamonds together with the A; but I have to guess which suit. At least this works against either opponent.

Rob Stevens: If East has both red suits, he is squeezed regardless; if he has only one, I must guess which. …

Jim Munday: East figures to hold the A, and thus has at least five clubs. With only five, he is likely 4-4 in the reds, and I can squeeze him in several ways. If East has six clubs, each opponent has six black cards and any red-suit finesse is even money; or I can still squeeze East if I know which red suit he has length in. Seeing the club spots might be informative; but with six decent clubs and a spade void, East may have preempted as dealer. Failure to do so mildly suggests heart length; thus I ruff the fourth diamond and win the Q, then the last trump will finish off East.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Then I ruff the fourth diamond and play a heart to the queen; my last trump will squeeze either opponent who holds four hearts with the A (West may have believed me and not led his ace). … Line B only squeezes East.

Jonathan Mestel: … According to my calculations, if East is 76 percent or more to hold the A, the club-heart squeeze wins over the heart finesse. Subsequent discards don’t affect a priori odds much; but it’s easier to throw clubs from A-x-x-x-x than Q-J-x-x-x (I may hold A-K-Q-x-x x-x A-x A-K-x-x) so the A is more likely with East. Would West lead the A from x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x A-J-x-x? Might I not hold A-K-x-x-x-x Q-J A-K-x-x-x —? I’m not a psychologist, so I’ll go with the 76 percent; and perhaps the stiff J is worth a bit.

Joshua Donn: This is far superior to Line D with trumps 3-0, and I can save an undertrick for what it’s worth; so why finesse when there may be a squeeze? The key is to ruff in dummy, so I can play the squeeze card from my hand and catch either defender. … The only thing nagging at me is that I think this line is better after three rounds of trumps, which allows communication to benefit from a stiff J. If you bid this much, you need to take advantage of all your chances. …

Brad Theurer: This leads to an automatic squeeze if either opponent holds 4+ hearts and the A. Line B is only a positional squeeze. Second choice is Line E, since the finesse is through the hand with more non-spade cards.

Subhransu Patnaik: Playing for a squeeze if East has four or more hearts [with his A].

Dale Freeman: Finessing a 10 just does not thrill me! So I’ll ruff a diamond in dummy, [return to the Q], and lead my last spade, pitching a club. This will squeeze either opponent with 4+ hearts and the A. (Line B only squeezes East.)

Weidong Yang: The 5 persuades me that West [might] have the A… The club-heart squeeze will work against West [as well as East].

Daniel Bertrand: Then ruff a diamond, cross to the Q, and play my last trump to squeeze East if he has the A (very likely) and 4+ hearts. I could instead try for a diamond-club squeeze; but since East did not preempt, I think he is more likely to have hearts.

Shawn Tate: This is slightly better than Line B because it only needs the A to be in the same hand as 4+ hearts for the squeeze to operate; while Line B needs East to have the A and 4+ diamonds.

Barry White: This has the advantage of making when either opponent has 4+ hearts and the A. I certainly expect East to hold the A; but if I were void in clubs, there are times when the A lead is the only way the hand can be made; [so maybe not]. … If I play hearts first, I can never squeeze West…

David Brooks: The heart-club squeeze [may be] marginally less than 50 percent — but at least it guarantees 12 tricks!

Lajos Linczmayer: Though the Consul General’s first pitch was a low club, I suppose he has the A, and probably 0=4=4=5 shape, e.g., — 9-8-x-x J-x-x-x A-J-x-x-x. If he had, say, — J-x-x-x J-x-x-x J-9-8-6-5, he would play me for a heart or diamond loser, e.g., A-K-Q-x-x x-x-x A A-K-x-x or A-K-Q-x-x x-x A-x A-K-x-x, and would have pitched one club and two diamonds. Incidentally, this also works if the Ambassador has the A and 4+ hearts, e.g., x-x-x J-x-x-x x-x-x A-Q-J.

David Grainger: East clearly has the A and 4+ cards in at least one of the red suits, if not both; so he is ripe for a squeeze. This will work when East is 0=4=4=5 and 0=5=3=5.

Dean Pokorny: Playing for an automatic club-heart squeeze, plus the possibility of a singleton J.

David Turner: This will squeeze either opponent with 4+ hearts and the A.

Jon Greiman: Setting up a squeeze if anybody has 4+ hearts and the A. This [may be] slightly worse than a simple finesse (to make the contract) but has the advantage of going down only one if it fails. Plus, I’m a bad guesser; and if only one finesse works, I’d take the other one. :)

Steve White: … This has the theoretical advantage that a club-heart squeeze would also succeed against West, but it’s hard to believe West would not have led the A if he had it — and if I do squeeze this West in clubs and hearts, it may cost me my life. :)

Mauri Saastamoinen: A guessing game? Maybe, but East had a chance to open the bidding 3 , and he passed. Why? Could there be some hearts concealed in his hand? Possibly… so I’ll play to squeeze East with something like — x-x-x-x J-x-x A-Q-x-x-x-x. …

John Chen: Playing for a heart-club squeeze.

Len Vishnevsky: Ruffing a heart sets up a positional squeeze; ruffing a diamond sets up an automatic squeeze. … Because I checked for lurkers, I can’t change tacks and take a heart finesse if East has few or no diamonds. Silly; I go with the squeeze.

Jouko Paganus: Then ruff the last diamond, [return to the Q, and lead the last trump] to squeeze either hand with 4+ hearts and the A.

Jim Tully: What to do? Odds have to favor East having either red jack. I think East has the A, because if West had it, he would have led it with all the missing stuff in that suit. So I’m going to play East for four or more hearts and squeeze him with the last trump.

Paulino Correa: One opponent may have the A and 4+ cards in one of the red suits…, so a squeeze is possible. A diamond-club squeeze will pressure East only, but a heart-club squeeze will act indifferently on either opponent…

Julian Pottage: Good problem. If West has the A, Line E is better.

J.J. Gass: Then ruff a diamond, win the Q, and lead the last trump, pitching a club. Dummy is down to A-K-5, and my hand is 10 K-3; so if either opponent started with long hearts and the A, he is squeezed.

Gerald Murphy: Next ruff a diamond, return to your heart, and lead the last spade to squeeze East in clubs and hearts…

Douglas Dunn: Ruff the diamond, then return to the Q and play the last trump, squeezing East (or West) if he has 4+ heats with the A.

Jack Presser: … A squeeze is possible by ruffing the fourth diamond; then win the Q, and the last spade should do it.

Comments for E. Win Q; finesse 10

Leif-Erik Stabell: This finesse should be 13/23, or a 56.5 percent chance. I cannot see that any squeeze is better, particularly as I cannot be sure that East has the A after my clever cue-bids.

John Lusky: If I were certain that East had the A, I might try Line F (heart-club squeeze); but his low club pitch makes me think West may have the A and have been fooled by my club bids. (Will this work after my swindle on Problem 4?) So I think my best shot is a simple heart finesse, which in light of the spade division is about 56.5 percent.

Charles Blair: With the A, East might have doubled or pitched a higher club at trick one. I am playing him for 0=4=4=5 or 0=3=4=6 (original pass argues against seven clubs).

N. Scott Cardell: … West might well hold the A and not have led it, thinking it would be ruffed and might set up a trick in dummy.

Bruce Neill: A finesse through the hand with short trumps is over 55 percent. Hard to see anything better.

Bill Powell: Fractionally better than 50 percent is the best I can see.

Gonzalo Goded: … I would like to have played three rounds of diamonds [after drawing three trumps], so if West has five cards, I can try to squeeze East in hearts and clubs; but if I do that now, I lack the entries [to benefit from the heart finesse].

Richard Stein: Call me lazy here. I know that one Line B or F will almost surely work, but I have no way to discover in time which red suit East is guarding. So I take a finesse which I know will be on more than 50 percent of the time.

Sebastien Louveaux: This has more or less a 13:10 chance (56.5 percent), while playing for a [heart-club] squeeze requires the A to be with the heart length. … I don’t see any reason why West couldn’t hold the A, as my bidding pointed to a club void.

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Problem 6

Rubber Bridge N-S Vul	A J 9 8 10 4 A 9 8 A 10 5 2		Ambass. West Dbl All Pass	Jo North Pass	General East Pass	You SOUTH 5 Rdbl1
Lead: K		East plays 3
5 ×× South	5 J 3 K Q J 10 7 6 5 4 Q 7		1. Jo always puts down nice dummies

When the Ambassador sees dummy, he calls for the guards.
Before they can cuff you, you grab the A.

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Ruff two spades; run trumps	10	188	21
B. Lead 8 (East plays low) and pitch a heart	8	371	41
C. Ruff three spades; exit with a heart	6	121	13
E. Lead the 4	5	105	12
A. Lead J and pitch a heart	4	67	7
F. Lead the 2	1	45	5

If you bid this way in a bridge tournament, you’d be brought before the Ethics Committee. The good news: You won’t see any committees at the Moroccan Embassy. The bad news: You might see a firing squad instead. Oh well; what’s done is done. You might as well try to make this and go out in glory.

The instinctive move is the free loser-on-loser play offered by Line B. If East has the 10, this ensures the contract; and if West has it, you still have good chances. Opponents will have to cash their heart trick (or attack clubs), else you can draw trumps* and claim with another loser-on-loser play. If the A is not (or cannot be) removed, you’ll have a black-suit squeeze against West. Consider the following deal.

*Some respondents wondered why there was no option to draw trumps first. You may need help to make this contract, so leading just one round of trumps could be a mistake, allowing an opponent to signal. Further, leaving West with a safe trump exit gives him another losing option.

Rubber Bridge	A J 9 8		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	10 4		1 W	K	A	3	5
	A 9 8		2 N	8	7	3?	10
	A 10 5 2		3 W	6!	4	K	J
K Q 10 2		7 6 4 3	4 E	6!	7	J	A
A Q 8 6 5		K 9 7 2	Declarer fails
3		2
K J 9		8 6 4 3
	5
	J 3
	K Q J 10 7 6 5 4
5 ×× South	Q 7

If you follow Line B, West will win the 10. It doesn’t take a genius West to realize the danger in clubs, and that his partner almost surely has the K. Therefore, West will (or should) lead a low heart to East; then a club shift breaks up the squeeze. Down one. On a lucky day, the J might be with East, so neither defender could lead clubs; but as the circling guards remind you, this is not your lucky day.

Leading the J instead of low (Line A), eliminating spades for an endplay (Line C), or leading a heart immediately (Line E) all suffer from the same defect. East may gain the lead for the killing club shift; and with the A removed, you are destined to lose three tricks.

Only Line D allows you to defy this fate — with a winkle. (At least it works in the card play, but its effect on the guards is untested.) Ruff two spades in case the queen drops, and lead all but one trump to reach this ending:

win 3	J		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	10 4		9 S	7!	A	J	7
	—		10 S	3!	Q	4	9
	A 10		West is endplayed
Q		6
A Q		K 9 7
—		—
K J		8
	—
	J 3
	7
South leads	Q 7

So far, the defense has everything under wraps; but what will West pitch on the last diamond? A club or a spade makes it easy, and the Q leaves West ripe for a simple endplay; so suppose he pitches the A. Pitch the spade from dummy, and exit with a heart to West’s queen. East cannot overtake without setting up a heart trick for you, so West is endplayed after all.

The winkle (Line D) will succeed when West has any two of the three top hearts (likely on the bidding) and the K. If East has the J (and West has the K), you can succeed against any distribution provided you guess the ending — which shouldn’t be too hard against non-expert defenders.

Second place goes to Line B, which succeeds when East has the 10, the Q ruffs out, or West has the K and East the J. In the last case, clubs cannot be attacked, so West will eventually be squeezed.

Lines C and E are next, succeeding by an endplay or squeeze when West has the K and East the J, or if the Q ruffs out (obviously you would not ruff three spades in Line C if that happened). The loss versus Line B is that you will not benefit if East holds the 10. Rather than break a tie between them, I’ll let the voting decide.

Line A is just is good as Line B at double-dummy, but in practice it is far worse because you won’t know where the 10 is. Thus, you might waste your time playing for a squeeze when a simple ruffing finesse would work.

Worst by far is to concede a club (Line F), which is truly a nullo play with no legitimate chance. Then again, it could be a way to save your life, as the Ambassador is going to be pissed if you make this. Did you really redouble? Geez!

Comments for D. Ruff two spades; run trumps

Jordi Sabate: For the bidding and [lead]…I think West has two heart honors (A-Q or K-Q) and the K. If I ruff two spades and run trumps, I can reach a five-card ending with J 10-4 A-10 opposite J-3 4 Q-7. West must keep the Q, two hearts (with at least one honor) and K-x. My last trump squeezes him; if he discards a heart, I discard the J and play a heart.

Rainer Herrmann: West should have all missing honors except the K; so he will get strip-squeezed in three suits when trumps are run.

Perry Groot: This squeezes West. I either throw him in with a heart to win a trick with the [ Q], or develop a trick in hearts if West unblocks both heart honors.

Rob Stevens: This brings too much pressure on West when he has K-Q-10-x A-Q-x-x x K-J-x-x.

Jim Munday: West should have most of the outstanding high cards — and some of dummy’s — for his double. With two of the top three heart honors and the K, he will crumble on the run of trumps. On the last trump, West will be down to Q A-x K-J and have no successful discard.

Leif-Erik Stabell: It must be odds-on to find West with two heart honors and the K, in which case it makes no difference who has the J.

Thijs Veugen: West has something like K-Q-10-x A-Q-x-x-x x K-J-x. On the last trump he has to discard one of his heart honors, so I discard the J and exit with a heart. If East overtakes, I’ll have a heart trick; otherwise, West has to play into my club tenace.

John Lusky: This works when West has the K (with or without the J) and two heart honors (as he should for his double), or when the Q comes down. … Line B will work some of the time when this fails (East has two heart honors and the 10 or J, and the Q is not coming down), but I doubt that West would double with only the K-Q, A and K-J. Of course, another advantage of Line B is that if East has the 10, it works fast — before the guards cuff me!

Craig Satersmoen: I assume East has one of the top two heart honors from the lead. On the last diamond, I will pitch the spade, then [exit with a heart] to make the contract on a winkle.

Chris Willenken: If West has two heart honors and the K in addition to K-Q, he is winkled. Nice 10, partner!

Tim DeLaney: West is a [favorite] to have the 10, so Lines A and B are unlikely to work. … My choice is between Lines C and D; both require West to hold the K. Line C requires East to hold the J (about 50 percent); Line D requires West to have two of the three heart honors, which is somewhat better than 50 percent, given his double. … Besides, the squeeze is prettier than the endplay.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Even winning if West started with K-Q-10-x A-Q-x-x x K-J-x-x, the last trump forces him to discard a high heart (to keep Q K-J); so I discard the J from dummy and lead a heart. If West wins, he can take the Q, but has to give me two clubs. If East overtakes to play a club, I make the A and a heart. This only fails if East has two heart honors or the K, which is very unlikely after the double. …

Jonathan Mestel: Laydown if West has two heart honors and the K, as likely; and there are other chances. …

Charles Blair: If West has K-Q-10-x A-x-x-x x K-J-x-x, he can set the hand; but he might not discard the A to keep a low heart.

Julian Wightwick: Presumably, East has K since I escaped a heart lead. This leaves West with K-Q, A and K, and probably both the Q and J for his double. I’ll try the 8 at trick two in case East covers; but if he doesn’t, I’ll play for strip-squeeze and endplay… This loses if West pitches the A, and East turns up with K-Q (or any two heart honors), or if West bares the K and I don’t read it. …

Joshua Donn: I don’t want to lose the lead early since [East] may lead a club and kill the ace. West will come under a lot of pressure if he has at least two heart honors. Line B is also tempting, but it may guide West to underlead A-Q to get a club through.

Dale Freeman: I will play West for K-Q, K and two heart honors (probably A-Q since no heart lead). He has to come down to Q, K-x and one heart; then I play a heart and he is endplayed in clubs, or I get a heart trick.

Weidong Yang: If West has the K and two heart honors (very likely from the bidding), he will be squeezed no matter who has the J.

Carsten Kofoed: If East has K-J, he can’t fool me. In other cases I hope I can read his distribution.

Shawn Tate: Line B seems to be the only option that allows East to have the K, but I find that unlikely. … I’ll strip-squeeze West down to Q A K-J, then put him in with a heart.

Gilles Korngut: Playing West for K-Q, two heart honors, and the K.

Neelotpal Sahai: An anticlimax. Like Problem 3, I believe this is foolproof — if the Ambassador has his double…

Lajos Linczmayer: If the Ambassador had A-K, he would have led it. If he has, say, K-Q-x-x-x A-x-x-x x K-J-x, only Lines A and B win… but with K-Q-10-x-x A-Q-x-x x K-J-x, these fail if West leads a low heart and East returns a club — a defense even non-experts may find. Line D always wins if West has the K and A-Q or K-Q.

John Reardon: I’ll play West for something like K-Q-10-x A-Q-x-x x K-J-x-x. With one trump left, he will have Q A-Q K-J, and the last trump will finish him.

Manuel Paulo: As the Ambassador has the strength, I project a favorable final position where he can win two tricks in the majors but must release a club trick.

Jean-Christophe Clement: To execute a squeeze throw-in against West, who should have two of the three heart honors, K and Q.

Neil Cohen: Slightly better than running the 8. … West may have found another lead with K-Q-x-x and a diamond, and he [probably] needs the Q for his double.

Albert Ohana: West must keep his Q and K-J, so he is obliged to discard a heart honor. Then play a heart, and East cannot take the trick without setting up the jack.

Jon Greiman: This should catch West in a squeeze, as long as he holds the Q, K and two of the heart honors. This seems better than messing with guessing and finessing…

Maybe so, but it sure ain’t as poetic! But I’m confessing that’s a blessing.

Robert Dannels: Hopefully, squeezing West to force an [eventual] lead from the K.

Steve White: This is cold if West has the K, two (or three) heart honors, and the marked Q — and I read the distribution. If West also has the J, it will be almost impossible to misread.

Mauri Saastamoinen: Nicely bid! Now it’s time to create some pressure against West — before those guards come to cuff me. If West has something like K-Q-10-x A-Q-x-x x K-J-x-x, he is soon ruined. Even if East has the J, I have a chance to guess correctly whether West has kept Q A-x K, or Q A K-x, at the end.

Simon Cheung: If West holds the K and at least two high hearts, he will be strip-squeezed.

Stu Goodgold: West started with K-Q, A, K and probably the J, but not the K, else his eminence would have led a heart honor. In the ending he is strip-squeezed, an embarrassment for the embassy.

Sandy Barnes: I have to control the play until West is down to Q, one heart and K-x. If West has any two heart honors, he is done.

Bruce Blakely: I make it if the Q [ruffs out], or if there is a spade-club squeeze against West.

Ed Barnes: This is the only way to make if West has both K-J [and the 10], as other lines allow East to get in with a heart to lead a club through. West gets winkled with A-Q (or K-Q) and the K, and eventually endplayed in clubs. … This also caters for short spades [in West].

Amiram Millet: West will be squeezed, then ripe for an endplay.

Sebastien Louveaux: This only requires West to have the K and two heart honors. After all trumps are played, West will have Q ? K-J. Then I’ll endplay him in hearts, as East cannot overtake [without setting up a heart for me]. …

Anthony Golding: In the four-card ending, West must come down to a single heart honor (say, the Q from A-Q), and dummy’s spade goes away. Then a heart endplays West if East lets the Q win, or I have a heart trick if he overtakes.

Biddy Smyth: Stay of execution. I hope the K and [two] heart honors are with West.

Final Notes

I hope you enjoyed the contest, as well the memories of a great film by the “Master of Suspense,” and Doris Day’s Oscar-winning song — almost as pretty as she is. Thanks to all who participated, and especially those who offered kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected from those above average (top 468) or in the overall Top 200 prior to this contest, and on each problem only those who supported the winning play (except Problem 5, which was close). While this might be considered biased, I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and to avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are off base. On this basis, I included about 75 percent of the eligible comments. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly except for corrections in spelling and grammar. Where I have included only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) indicates where text was cut. Text [in brackets] was supplied by me to summarize a cut portion or fix an omission. Comments are listed in order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing. I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems (aided by your comments) has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

Before I bid you “Good evening,” I’ll pass along these words from the film crew:

Jack Rhatigan: Regarding Doris Day, I love Oscar Levant’s comment, “I knew her before she was a virgin.”

John Reardon: Bid boldly, play safe? Even Rixi Markus would turn in her grave at this bidding.

Josh Sinnett: These auctions are for The Birds; like they were bid by Strangers on a Train. Can I Dial M for Misbid?

Curt Reeves: Only a Psycho would foist these problems upon me. As I attempt to solve them, I glance out my Rear Window for a Saboteur with a Rope. Fade with Funeral Dirge for a Marionette playing softly in the background.

Tony Warnock: I feel more like “The Man Who Knew Too Little.”

Analyses 8X48 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Man Who Bid Too Much

Acknowledgments to Alfred Hitchcock (1899-1980) and The Man Who Knew Too Much (1956)
© 2005 Richard Pavlicek