Main   Puzzle 8S83 by Richard Pavlicek  

Chances Are…

…You believe the stars that fill the skies are in my eyes…
 And if you believe that… chances are you’re crazy 

Oh well; as South pretend you experience a temporary return of sanity:

3 NT South	4 3 2 3 2 Q 5 4 3 Q J 10 9		Both Vul	West Pass Pass	North 3 NT	East Pass	South 2 NT Pass
? K Q J 9 ? ?		? A 10 8 7 ? ?
Lead: K	A Q 5 6 5 4 A K 2 A K 8 7

West leads the K, and luckily you lose only four tricks with hearts as shown. Assume all other suit distributions are completely random, except no one can have seven spades, as that player would have bid with 7-4 shape. Assuming you choose the line of play with the best chance:

What is your percent chance to make 3 NT (1) if East wins the fourth heart; (2) if West wins the fourth heart.

Further, assume the defender who wins the fourth heart is just happenstance with no underlying motive, after which East leads a spade; West of course does not (else you could claim).

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Solution

Use the form below if you wish to submit a solution. Entries will be accepted until February 28 at midnight GMT. You may submit multiple times, but only the latest one counts. The best solutions will be published here on March 1 with acknowledgment to the top solvers.

1. Chance if East wins the fourth heart
2. Chance if West wins the fourth heart
Enter percents to nearest 100th (e.g., 66.67)

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