Study 8J05 Main

Notrump or Suit Fit?

by Richard Pavlicek

A common decision is whether to place the contract in notrump or a suit fit. Most often this is a choice between 3 NT and four of a major, but the decision can apply to any suit fit at any level. This study considers the problem from the perspective of hand patterns. Other factors certainly apply, such as the ability to obtain a useful ruff, and the presence or lack of stoppers, but for now assume these to be equal or indeterminable. Which partnership patterns are better for notrump? Which for suit play? And by what percent do they differ?

3 NT or 4 of Major

1 NT or 2 of Suit

2 NT or 3 of Suit

6 NT or 6 of Suit

Results were obtained from a database of 10,485,760 solved deals. Only partnerships with an 8 or 9-card fit, no suit over six cards, and no singleton or void were considered, as the lack of a fit clearly favors notrump, and a 7+ card suit or splinter clearly favors suit play. To obtain maximal data, both sides (N-S and E-W) of each deal were analyzed, and the fit could be anywhere (suit identity is irrelevant). Makable tricks are determined at double-dummy, and each contract is right-sided if it matters which hand is declarer.

To facilitate interpretation, all results are transposed to West and East with the fit in spades and West having the greater spade length (or greater freakness if a 4-4 fit). Listing is in order of frequency of the paired hand patterns (irrespective of makes) in the database, which is likely to be the theoretical frequency as well. West patterns are shown in generic order: fit suit (spades), longest other suit, next longest, shortest. East patterns are matched suit-by-suit to West.

Study 8J05 Main

Top Notrump or Suit Fit?

Three Notrump or Four of Major

If game but not slam is makable in notrump or spades, this table shows the percent of the time that only 3 NT makes, only 4 makes, and both games make for each pair of hand patterns; i.e., percents in each row must total 100. Times shows the number of occasions the paired hand patterns qualified for this table. Tinted rows show cases where 3 NT makes more often than 4 .

The data strongly supports the accepted practice of not using Stayman with 4-3-3-3 shape, as 3 NT is superior regardless of opener’s shape (if balanced). Note Cases 1, 3, 6, 7 and 56. Even in Case 12 with a nine-card spade fit, notrump is the big winner.

A similar diagnosis occurs after a Jacoby transfer and a follow-up in notrump, giving opener a choice of contracts. Traditional strategy is to choose 3 NT with a doubleton, or the major with 3+ trumps. Not the best advice! Cases 3, 6, 7 and 12 show that with 4-3-3-3 shape opener should generally choose notrump, even with a four-card major fit. A caveat is that transfer bidder will not always be 5-3-3-2, but note that Cases 8 and 9 (5-4-2-2) only slightly favor suit play.

If neither hand is 4-3-3-3, or if either hand is unbalanced (5-4-2-2 or 6-3-2-2), the major-suit game is superior except curiously in Cases 29 and 45. Note how the major-suit advantage soars when the two hands have matching doubletons (Cases 14, 26, 32, …).

Case	West	East	3 NT only	4 only	Both make	Times
1	4=4=3=2	4=3=3=3	23.33	16.94	59.73	84,642
2	4=4=3=2	4=2=3=4	16.05	18.36	65.58	40,966
3	5=3=3=2	3=3=3=4	35.93	3.51	60.57	45,324
4	4=4=3=2	4=2=4=3	14.71	25.67	59.62	37,033
5	4=4=3=2	4=3=2=4	14.87	26.14	58.98	36,685
6	5=3=3=2	3=4=3=3	26.43	13.86	59.71	38,911
7	5=3=3=2	3=3=4=3	26.98	14.24	58.78	38,545
8	5=4=2=2	3=3=3=4	18.41	19.51	62.08	31,322
9	5=4=2=2	3=3=4=3	18.60	19.81	61.59	31,126
10	5=3=3=2	3=2=4=4	18.46	20.04	61.50	31,024
11	5=3=3=2	3=4=2=4	18.94	20.10	60.96	30,971
12	5=3=3=2	4=3=3=3	28.80	9.66	61.54	28,725
13	5=4=2=2	3=2=4=4	15.39	16.37	68.23	28,465
14	4=4=3=2	4=3=4=2	11.12	44.91	43.98	21,129
15	5=3=3=2	4=2=3=4	9.45	26.55	64.00	24,909
16	4=5=2=2	4=2=3=4	9.17	39.23	51.60	24,662
17	5=3=3=2	4=3=2=4	9.38	26.18	64.44	24,700
18	4=5=2=2	4=2=4=3	9.39	38.95	51.66	24,516
19	5=3=3=2	3=2=3=5	18.51	20.82	60.67	24,082
20	5=3=3=2	3=3=2=5	18.65	20.57	60.78	23,908
21	5=3=3=2	4=4=2=3	9.06	35.81	55.13	21,897
22	5=3=3=2	4=2=4=3	8.93	35.94	55.13	21,594
23	5=4=2=2	4=3=3=3	9.26	32.95	57.79	21,585
24	5=4=2=2	4=2=3=4	4.36	41.38	54.26	21,674
25	5=4=2=2	4=2=4=3	4.49	41.14	54.37	21,800
26	5=3=3=2	3=4=4=2	10.64	48.86	40.51	20,747
27	5=4=2=2	3=2=5=3	12.25	28.41	59.34	19,802
28	5=4=2=2	3=2=3=5	12.74	28.53	58.73	19,602
29	6=3=2=2	2=3=4=4	22.47	12.75	64.78	19,169
30	6=3=2=2	3=3=3=4	16.73	19.82	63.45	18,309
31	6=3=2=2	3=3=4=3	17.03	20.28	62.69	18,393
32	5=3=3=2	4=3=4=2	8.81	47.24	43.95	15,918
33	5=3=3=2	4=4=3=2	8.98	47.89	43.13	15,613
34	6=3=2=2	2=4=4=3	17.33	23.96	58.71	16,846
35	6=3=2=2	2=4=3=4	17.30	24.07	58.63	16,692
36	5=3=3=2	4=2=2=5	3.39	50.79	45.82	14,709
37	6=3=2=2	3=4=3=3	13.49	30.40	56.11	15,667
38	5=4=2=2	4=3=2=4	3.38	56.49	40.13	13,663
39	5=4=2=2	4=3=4=2	3.36	57.81	38.83	13,587
40	4=4=3=2	4=4=2=3	8.20	36.57	55.22	13,458
41	5=4=2=2	3=3=5=2	6.87	57.20	35.93	13,041
42	6=3=2=2	3=2=4=4	7.23	28.79	63.98	14,892
43	5=4=2=2	3=3=2=5	7.19	56.04	36.77	13,177
44	4=5=2=2	4=3=3=3	7.54	39.72	52.74	12,027
45	6=3=2=2	2=3=3=5	20.25	19.69	60.06	12,762
46	6=3=2=2	2=3=5=3	20.06	20.24	59.69	12,739
47	5=3=3=2	3=2=5=3	10.76	32.92	56.32	11,009
48	5=4=2=2	4=4=3=2	2.29	59.57	38.14	10,343
49	5=4=2=2	4=4=2=3	2.75	59.29	37.95	10,418
50	5=4=2=2	3=4=3=3	9.65	37.32	53.04	9505
51	4=4=3=2	4=4=3=2	9.85	44.52	45.64	8572
52	6=3=2=2	3=4=4=2	8.53	51.66	39.81	10,166
53	5=4=2=2	4=2=5=2	1.29	70.75	27.96	9850
54	5=4=2=2	4=2=2=5	1.14	69.83	29.03	9803
55	6=3=2=2	3=4=2=4	8.51	50.67	40.82	9945
56	4=3=3=3	4=3=3=3	47.35	0.88	51.77	9121
57	6=3=2=2	3=2=5=3	5.62	38.66	55.72	10,001
58	6=3=2=2	3=2=3=5	5.75	38.13	56.12	10,045
59	6=3=2=2	2=2=5=4	16.51	22.38	61.10	9847
60	6=3=2=2	2=2=4=5	16.38	21.70	61.92	9845
61	5=3=3=2	4=5=2=2	2.24	67.11	30.65	8073
62	5=3=3=2	4=2=5=2	1.81	66.53	31.66	8074
63	5=3=3=2	3=3=5=2	7.73	51.97	40.30	8476
64	4=5=2=2	4=3=2=4	3.14	59.44	37.41	7286
65	4=5=2=2	4=3=4=2	3.07	59.94	36.99	7227
66	6=3=2=2	3=3=2=5	7.83	52.02	40.14	7837
67	6=3=2=2	3=3=5=2	7.76	52.22	40.03	7840
68	5=4=2=2	3=4=2=4	3.69	60.70	35.60	7016
69	5=4=2=2	3=4=4=2	3.18	61.25	35.57	6798
70	6=3=2=2	2=4=2=5	9.36	53.25	37.39	6836
71	5=3=3=2	3=5=2=3	9.47	34.42	56.11	7083
72	6=3=2=2	2=4=5=2	8.29	52.82	38.89	6825
73	6=3=2=2	3=5=3=2	5.71	57.77	36.53	5782
74	6=3=2=2	3=5=2=3	5.69	58.30	36.00	5619
75	4=5=2=2	4=2=2=5	2.96	70.10	26.94	5669
76	4=5=2=2	4=2=5=2	3.06	70.06	26.89	5430
77	5=3=3=2	3=5=3=2	7.73	53.87	38.40	5292
78	6=3=2=2	2=5=3=3	9.01	35.47	55.52	4861
79	5=3=3=2	3=2=2=6	9.56	37.06	53.38	4822
80	5=4=2=2	3=2=2=6	4.72	60.86	34.42	3896
81	6=3=2=2	3=2=2=6	2.30	59.96	37.74	3132
82	6=3=2=2	3=2=6=2	2.86	58.78	38.36	3042
83	6=3=2=2	2=5=4=2	5.11	57.55	37.33	2933
84	6=3=2=2	2=5=2=4	6.01	57.23	36.75	2827
85	5=4=2=2	3=2=6=2	2.97	63.77	33.26	2730
86	6=3=2=2	2=2=3=6	12.10	27.15	60.75	2777
87	6=3=2=2	2=3=2=6	9.95	49.63	40.42	2291
88	5=4=2=2	4=5=2=2	0.00	84.27	15.73	1806
89	6=3=2=2	2=2=6=3	10.60	31.88	57.52	2067
90	6=3=2=2	2=3=6=2	9.54	52.44	38.02	1636
91	6=3=2=2	3=6=2=2	1.25	72.53	26.22	801
Average for 91 Cases			14.31	31.36	54.33	15,453
Total Times			201,292	440,934	764,036	1,406,262

Study 8J05 Main

Top Notrump or Suit Fit?

One Notrump or Two of Suit

If 1 NT or 2 (but not 2 NT or 3 ) is makable, this table shows the percent of the time that only 1 NT makes, only 2 makes, and both contracts make for each pair of hand patterns; i.e., percents in each row must total 100. Times shows the number of occasions the paired hand patterns qualified for this table.

The dominant message here is that at low levels the suit fit is always better, except with mirror 4-3-3-3 patterns (Case 56). Obviously this is because fewer high cards make notrump more demanding (stoppers, timing, etc.) while a trump fit has the same ruffing ability at any level.

Case	West	East	1 NT only	2 only	Both make	Times
1	4=4=3=2	4=3=3=3	16.06	44.16	39.78	79,803
2	4=4=3=2	4=2=3=4	9.91	52.34	37.75	35,538
3	5=3=3=2	3=3=3=4	26.93	27.72	45.34	32,760
4	4=4=3=2	4=2=4=3	7.87	65.22	26.92	31,513
5	4=4=3=2	4=3=2=4	7.81	65.24	26.95	31,270
6	5=3=3=2	3=4=3=3	19.54	42.94	37.52	30,302
7	5=3=3=2	3=3=4=3	19.41	43.21	37.38	30,490
8	5=4=2=2	3=3=3=4	10.49	58.85	30.65	25,129
9	5=4=2=2	3=3=4=3	10.30	59.16	30.55	25,007
10	5=3=3=2	3=2=4=4	10.91	57.01	32.07	23,712
11	5=3=3=2	3=4=2=4	10.74	56.01	33.25	23,778
12	5=3=3=2	4=3=3=3	16.57	45.79	37.65	24,037
13	5=4=2=2	3=2=4=4	9.61	53.63	36.76	20,824
14	4=4=3=2	4=3=4=2	5.03	70.90	24.07	24,953
15	5=3=3=2	4=2=3=4	2.70	72.06	25.24	20,938
16	4=5=2=2	4=2=3=4	4.20	76.55	19.25	19,059
17	5=3=3=2	4=3=2=4	2.61	70.97	26.43	21,066
18	4=5=2=2	4=2=4=3	4.13	76.40	19.47	18,983
19	5=3=3=2	3=2=3=5	11.10	53.76	35.14	18,778
20	5=3=3=2	3=3=2=5	10.52	53.73	35.75	18,703
21	5=3=3=2	4=4=2=3	2.74	77.83	19.43	17,957
22	5=3=3=2	4=2=4=3	2.86	77.82	19.32	17,641
23	5=4=2=2	4=3=3=3	2.91	75.76	21.33	17,650
24	5=4=2=2	4=2=3=4	0.94	88.32	10.74	15,505
25	5=4=2=2	4=2=4=3	1.01	88.01	10.97	15,273
26	5=3=3=2	3=4=4=2	6.95	72.54	20.51	19,069
27	5=4=2=2	3=2=5=3	6.27	67.24	26.50	14,299
28	5=4=2=2	3=2=3=5	6.35	66.30	27.35	14,535
29	6=3=2=2	2=3=4=4	14.03	52.22	33.76	14,160
30	6=3=2=2	3=3=3=4	9.41	59.10	31.49	12,937
31	6=3=2=2	3=3=4=3	9.55	59.12	31.33	12,944
32	5=3=3=2	4=3=4=2	6.04	74.02	19.94	14,957
33	5=3=3=2	4=4=3=2	6.04	73.15	20.81	15,057
34	6=3=2=2	2=4=4=3	10.63	64.68	24.69	12,545
35	6=3=2=2	2=4=3=4	11.38	64.14	24.48	12,476
36	5=3=3=2	4=2=2=5	0.60	91.64	7.76	10,731
37	6=3=2=2	3=4=3=3	8.44	68.76	22.80	11,206
38	5=4=2=2	4=3=2=4	0.73	87.23	12.04	12,195
39	5=4=2=2	4=3=4=2	0.81	86.52	12.67	12,043
40	4=4=3=2	4=4=2=3	3.26	77.04	19.70	12,406
41	5=4=2=2	3=3=5=2	3.34	80.95	15.71	12,235
42	6=3=2=2	3=2=4=4	2.70	76.64	20.67	9750
43	5=4=2=2	3=3=2=5	3.49	80.86	15.65	12,139
44	4=5=2=2	4=3=3=3	3.40	75.07	21.53	9531
45	6=3=2=2	2=3=3=5	10.59	59.77	29.63	9968
46	6=3=2=2	2=3=5=3	10.38	60.39	29.24	9706
47	5=3=3=2	3=2=5=3	3.67	69.89	26.45	8700
48	5=4=2=2	4=4=3=2	1.14	87.97	10.89	8663
49	5=4=2=2	4=4=2=3	1.59	88.09	10.31	8667
50	5=4=2=2	3=4=3=3	3.24	76.35	20.42	9086
51	4=4=3=2	4=4=3=2	3.92	71.37	24.71	10,821
52	6=3=2=2	3=4=4=2	4.43	80.91	14.67	7705
53	5=4=2=2	4=2=5=2	0.19	96.41	3.40	7332
54	5=4=2=2	4=2=2=5	0.21	96.85	2.94	7268
55	6=3=2=2	3=4=2=4	4.59	80.15	15.26	7576
56	4=3=3=3	4=3=3=3	56.90	4.19	38.91	8633
57	6=3=2=2	3=2=5=3	1.85	82.47	15.68	6959
58	6=3=2=2	3=2=3=5	2.05	82.79	15.15	6910
59	6=3=2=2	2=2=5=4	8.77	62.29	28.94	7443
60	6=3=2=2	2=2=4=5	8.50	62.95	28.55	7237
61	5=3=3=2	4=5=2=2	0.59	89.26	10.15	7161
62	5=3=3=2	4=2=5=2	0.65	89.94	9.42	7285
63	5=3=3=2	3=3=5=2	5.86	73.34	20.80	7970
64	4=5=2=2	4=3=2=4	1.17	89.29	9.54	6575
65	4=5=2=2	4=3=4=2	1.00	89.06	9.94	6511
66	6=3=2=2	3=3=2=5	3.83	78.79	17.38	6168
67	6=3=2=2	3=3=5=2	3.55	78.70	17.75	5995
68	5=4=2=2	3=4=2=4	1.02	88.83	10.15	6382
69	5=4=2=2	3=4=4=2	1.13	90.03	8.84	6179
70	6=3=2=2	2=4=2=5	4.46	81.35	14.18	6098
71	5=3=3=2	3=5=2=3	3.25	72.40	24.35	5782
72	6=3=2=2	2=4=5=2	4.56	81.34	14.09	6068
73	6=3=2=2	3=5=3=2	2.70	84.55	12.75	4596
74	6=3=2=2	3=5=2=3	2.58	84.42	13.00	4763
75	4=5=2=2	4=2=2=5	1.08	91.96	6.96	4712
76	4=5=2=2	4=2=5=2	0.99	91.97	7.04	4770
77	5=3=3=2	3=5=3=2	5.71	74.44	19.85	5184
78	6=3=2=2	2=5=3=3	4.24	77.40	18.36	4031
79	5=3=3=2	3=2=2=6	4.20	69.96	25.84	3189
80	5=4=2=2	3=2=2=6	1.89	85.71	12.40	2968
81	6=3=2=2	3=2=2=6	0.46	91.33	8.21	2387
82	6=3=2=2	3=2=6=2	0.69	91.79	7.52	2326
83	6=3=2=2	2=5=4=2	2.07	86.05	11.88	2517
84	6=3=2=2	2=5=2=4	2.80	84.74	12.47	2503
85	5=4=2=2	3=2=6=2	1.74	87.37	10.89	2066
86	6=3=2=2	2=2=3=6	4.50	71.21	24.30	2202
87	6=3=2=2	2=3=2=6	3.62	77.83	18.55	2043
88	5=4=2=2	4=5=2=2	0.13	95.32	4.55	1581
89	6=3=2=2	2=2=6=3	5.15	72.26	22.58	1572
90	6=3=2=2	2=3=6=2	3.68	78.42	17.90	1469
91	6=3=2=2	3=6=2=2	0.00	94.92	5.08	650
Average for 91 Cases			8.44	65.72	25.84	12,662
Total Times			97,271	757,267	297,723	1,152,261

Study 8J05 Main

Top Notrump or Suit Fit?

Two Notrump or Three of Suit

If 2 NT or 3 (but not 3 NT or 4 ) is makable, this table shows the percent of the time that only 2 NT makes, only 3 makes, and both contracts make for each pair of hand patterns; i.e., percents in each row must total 100. Times shows the number of occasions the paired hand patterns qualified for this table. Tinted rows show cases where 2 NT makes more often than 3 .

As one might expect, this data falls between the previous two tables. Like 3 NT, the notorious 4-3-3-3 shape suggests ignoring the suit fit to play 2 NT, but to a lesser degree. Note the flip-flop in Case 1 and the resounding return to normalcy in Cases 29 and 45.

Case	West	East	2 NT only	3 only	Both make	Times
1	4=4=3=2	4=3=3=3	26.87	29.48	43.65	66,624
2	4=4=3=2	4=2=3=4	17.05	36.38	46.57	31,626
3	5=3=3=2	3=3=3=4	43.42	13.15	43.43	28,221
4	4=4=3=2	4=2=4=3	13.12	54.08	32.80	28,858
5	4=4=3=2	4=3=2=4	13.50	53.59	32.91	28,672
6	5=3=3=2	3=4=3=3	33.25	29.06	37.69	25,217
7	5=3=3=2	3=3=4=3	32.58	29.22	38.20	25,288
8	5=4=2=2	3=3=3=4	17.56	45.72	36.72	22,294
9	5=4=2=2	3=3=4=3	17.14	45.83	37.03	22,374
10	5=3=3=2	3=2=4=4	17.92	45.50	36.58	21,449
11	5=3=3=2	3=4=2=4	18.22	44.57	37.22	21,330
12	5=3=3=2	4=3=3=3	29.58	28.53	41.89	20,380
13	5=4=2=2	3=2=4=4	14.90	42.98	42.12	19,898
14	4=4=3=2	4=3=4=2	7.36	67.49	25.15	19,248
15	5=3=3=2	4=2=3=4	5.72	55.28	38.99	17,904
16	4=5=2=2	4=2=3=4	7.44	68.00	24.56	19,066
17	5=3=3=2	4=3=2=4	5.72	55.44	38.84	17,944
18	4=5=2=2	4=2=4=3	6.80	68.52	24.68	18,785
19	5=3=3=2	3=2=3=5	18.75	41.16	40.09	15,777
20	5=3=3=2	3=3=2=5	18.85	39.64	41.50	15,816
21	5=3=3=2	4=4=2=3	5.27	67.51	27.22	17,150
22	5=3=3=2	4=2=4=3	5.05	67.41	27.55	17,006
23	5=4=2=2	4=3=3=3	5.41	64.83	29.76	16,882
24	5=4=2=2	4=2=3=4	1.73	82.22	16.06	16,576
25	5=4=2=2	4=2=4=3	1.83	81.78	16.39	16,539
26	5=3=3=2	3=4=4=2	11.03	66.35	22.62	14,394
27	5=4=2=2	3=2=5=3	10.33	57.68	31.99	14,068
28	5=4=2=2	3=2=3=5	10.49	56.61	32.91	13,873
29	6=3=2=2	2=3=4=4	23.79	39.52	36.69	11,998
30	6=3=2=2	3=3=3=4	17.64	50.78	31.58	11,412
31	6=3=2=2	3=3=4=3	16.77	51.49	31.74	11,262
32	5=3=3=2	4=3=4=2	12.27	63.41	24.32	11,978
33	5=3=3=2	4=4=3=2	12.43	62.93	24.65	12,079
34	6=3=2=2	2=4=4=3	16.86	55.05	28.09	10,979
35	6=3=2=2	2=4=3=4	17.48	54.79	27.74	10,729
36	5=3=3=2	4=2=2=5	1.20	87.38	11.42	12,025
37	6=3=2=2	3=4=3=3	11.76	64.86	23.39	10,690
38	5=4=2=2	4=3=2=4	1.37	80.81	17.82	11,442
39	5=4=2=2	4=3=4=2	1.61	80.52	17.87	11,553
40	4=4=3=2	4=4=2=3	6.34	68.17	25.49	11,348
41	5=4=2=2	3=3=5=2	5.43	75.52	19.05	10,319
42	6=3=2=2	3=2=4=4	4.24	69.56	26.20	10,746
43	5=4=2=2	3=3=2=5	5.46	74.74	19.80	10,372
44	4=5=2=2	4=3=3=3	6.05	69.90	24.04	9370
45	6=3=2=2	2=3=3=5	19.58	47.92	32.50	8078
46	6=3=2=2	2=3=5=3	20.12	47.78	32.10	8353
47	5=3=3=2	3=2=5=3	8.07	60.72	31.21	8101
48	5=4=2=2	4=4=3=2	1.73	83.66	14.61	9126
49	5=4=2=2	4=4=2=3	2.18	83.14	14.67	9070
50	5=4=2=2	3=4=3=3	6.08	67.11	26.81	8990
51	4=4=3=2	4=4=3=2	5.68	64.71	29.61	8506
52	6=3=2=2	3=4=4=2	7.50	75.57	16.94	7498
53	5=4=2=2	4=2=5=2	0.65	95.08	4.26	8115
54	5=4=2=2	4=2=2=5	0.55	95.60	3.84	8145
55	6=3=2=2	3=4=2=4	7.31	75.62	17.08	7431
56	4=3=3=3	4=3=3=3	69.73	1.93	28.34	8716
57	6=3=2=2	3=2=5=3	3.23	75.50	21.27	7626
58	6=3=2=2	3=2=3=5	2.63	76.34	21.03	7485
59	6=3=2=2	2=2=5=4	15.19	51.83	32.98	6464
60	6=3=2=2	2=2=4=5	15.38	52.62	32.00	6384
61	5=3=3=2	4=5=2=2	1.27	84.53	14.21	7419
62	5=3=3=2	4=2=5=2	1.20	84.76	14.04	7256
63	5=3=3=2	3=3=5=2	12.90	62.27	24.83	5884
64	4=5=2=2	4=3=2=4	2.16	84.47	13.37	6297
65	4=5=2=2	4=3=4=2	1.88	85.48	12.64	6431
66	6=3=2=2	3=3=2=5	9.60	71.63	18.77	5252
67	6=3=2=2	3=3=5=2	10.00	70.52	19.48	5349
68	5=4=2=2	3=4=2=4	2.01	83.40	14.59	6066
69	5=4=2=2	3=4=4=2	1.93	83.54	14.53	6015
70	6=3=2=2	2=4=2=5	7.76	75.14	17.10	5427
71	5=3=3=2	3=5=2=3	6.92	63.67	29.42	5364
72	6=3=2=2	2=4=5=2	8.63	74.01	17.36	5086
73	6=3=2=2	3=5=3=2	4.51	80.02	15.47	4830
74	6=3=2=2	3=5=2=3	4.15	78.58	17.27	4766
75	4=5=2=2	4=2=2=5	1.75	89.09	9.16	4848
76	4=5=2=2	4=2=5=2	1.77	89.14	9.09	4642
77	5=3=3=2	3=5=3=2	11.02	64.86	24.12	3848
78	6=3=2=2	2=5=3=3	7.77	69.15	23.08	3592
79	5=3=3=2	3=2=2=6	7.06	67.51	25.43	3398
80	5=4=2=2	3=2=2=6	3.22	81.96	14.83	3109
81	6=3=2=2	3=2=2=6	1.51	84.26	14.24	2585
82	6=3=2=2	3=2=6=2	1.22	83.16	15.62	2797
83	6=3=2=2	2=5=4=2	4.90	79.16	15.94	2246
84	6=3=2=2	2=5=2=4	5.41	78.70	15.89	2310
85	5=4=2=2	3=2=6=2	2.32	83.51	14.17	2195
86	6=3=2=2	2=2=3=6	11.12	59.44	29.43	1906
87	6=3=2=2	2=3=2=6	12.31	68.86	18.83	1641
88	5=4=2=2	4=5=2=2	0.16	95.53	4.31	1835
89	6=3=2=2	2=2=6=3	7.85	63.96	28.19	1440
90	6=3=2=2	2=3=6=2	10.16	73.12	16.72	1250
91	6=3=2=2	3=6=2=2	1.11	84.81	14.07	810
Average for 91 Cases			13.73	56.64	29.62	11,489
Total Times			143,571	592,240	309,732	1,045,543

Study 8J05 Main

Top Notrump or Suit Fit?

Six Notrump or Six of Suit

If 6 NT or 6 is makable, this table shows the percent of the time that only 6 NT makes, only 6 makes, and both slams make for each pair of hand patterns; i.e., percents in each row must total 100. Times shows the number of occasions the paired hand patterns qualified for this table.

This comparison differs from the previous ones in that both contracts are at the same level, which is dictated to have practical benefit — at least I could see no reason to compare 6 NT with a seven-bid. Therefore, it is obvious that suit contracts have a definite edge in producing an equal number of tricks. In most cases the advantage is big, but it narrows considerably when a 4-3-3-3 pattern is involved.

This should make you think twice about shunning a suit fit to play 6 NT, though in the case of a minor the frequent 2-IMP gain for 6 NT will often override. For example, consider Case 3 with a minor fit, vulnerable. In 100 tries 6 NT gains 5×16 - 8×16 + 87×2 = 126 IMPs!

Note the Times column in Cases 51 and 56, which are extremely low and disproportionate, despite the fact that cases are listed in order of frequency of the paired patterns. Why so? Because mirror shapes seldom win 12 tricks in any strain. A word to the wise.

Case	West	East	6 NT only	6 only	Both make	Times
1	4=4=3=2	4=3=3=3	4.83	32.62	62.55	8382
2	4=4=3=2	4=2=3=4	3.35	55.37	41.28	5315
3	5=3=3=2	3=3=3=4	4.88	8.00	87.12	4751
4	4=4=3=2	4=2=4=3	4.70	46.71	48.58	4761
5	4=4=3=2	4=3=2=4	4.94	47.05	48.01	4793
6	5=3=3=2	3=4=3=3	5.80	7.55	86.64	4979
7	5=3=3=2	3=3=4=3	6.01	7.44	86.55	4908
8	5=4=2=2	3=3=3=4	5.55	15.89	78.56	4287
9	5=4=2=2	3=3=4=3	6.19	15.53	78.28	4442
10	5=3=3=2	3=2=4=4	5.82	21.08	73.10	4621
11	5=3=3=2	3=4=2=4	6.17	19.80	74.02	4600
12	5=3=3=2	4=3=3=3	2.16	5.07	92.78	2270
13	5=4=2=2	3=2=4=4	3.93	33.42	62.65	4530
14	4=4=3=2	4=3=4=2	6.99	27.91	65.10	2791
15	5=3=3=2	4=2=3=4	1.37	38.32	60.31	3502
16	4=5=2=2	4=2=3=4	4.47	50.96	44.57	4431
17	5=3=3=2	4=3=2=4	1.32	39.33	59.35	3397
18	4=5=2=2	4=2=4=3	5.03	51.40	43.57	4496
19	5=3=3=2	3=2=3=5	6.73	28.32	64.95	4385
20	5=3=3=2	3=3=2=5	6.47	28.03	65.50	4417
21	5=3=3=2	4=4=2=3	1.87	31.59	66.54	3314
22	5=3=3=2	4=2=4=3	1.83	31.65	66.52	3226
23	5=4=2=2	4=3=3=3	2.30	23.20	74.51	2832
24	5=4=2=2	4=2=3=4	0.83	54.39	44.78	3743
25	5=4=2=2	4=2=4=3	1.06	53.26	45.68	3774
26	5=3=3=2	3=4=4=2	6.32	12.40	81.28	3040
27	5=4=2=2	3=2=5=3	6.48	30.81	62.70	3609
28	5=4=2=2	3=2=3=5	6.34	30.66	63.00	3738
29	6=3=2=2	2=3=4=4	4.91	16.33	78.75	3276
30	6=3=2=2	3=3=3=4	2.69	14.72	82.59	3010
31	6=3=2=2	3=3=4=3	2.44	14.56	82.99	2946
32	5=3=3=2	4=3=4=2	2.55	13.15	84.30	1962
33	5=3=3=2	4=4=3=2	2.52	13.06	84.41	2021
34	6=3=2=2	2=4=4=3	5.53	16.74	77.73	3040
35	6=3=2=2	2=4=3=4	5.14	17.67	77.19	3056
36	5=3=3=2	4=2=2=5	1.16	53.25	45.59	3354
37	6=3=2=2	3=4=3=3	2.36	15.76	81.88	3096
38	5=4=2=2	4=3=2=4	1.42	36.74	61.83	2316
39	5=4=2=2	4=3=4=2	2.34	35.50	62.16	2265
40	4=4=3=2	4=4=2=3	0.95	41.59	57.46	1368
41	5=4=2=2	3=3=5=2	8.47	22.87	68.65	2667
42	6=3=2=2	3=2=4=4	1.99	26.99	71.01	2860
43	5=4=2=2	3=3=2=5	8.05	24.66	67.30	2486
44	4=5=2=2	4=3=3=3	1.09	45.30	53.61	2746
45	6=3=2=2	2=3=3=5	7.46	18.00	74.54	2533
46	6=3=2=2	2=3=5=3	7.05	16.69	76.26	2511
47	5=3=3=2	3=2=5=3	2.22	19.28	78.51	2345
48	5=4=2=2	4=4=3=2	2.26	10.01	87.73	1239
49	5=4=2=2	4=4=2=3	2.15	10.66	87.19	1210
50	5=4=2=2	3=4=3=3	3.20	13.80	83.01	1377
51	4=4=3=2	4=4=3=2	1.49	8.93	89.58	672
52	6=3=2=2	3=4=4=2	2.95	19.40	77.65	1964
53	5=4=2=2	4=2=5=2	1.33	50.05	48.62	2030
54	5=4=2=2	4=2=2=5	1.84	49.08	49.08	2007
55	6=3=2=2	3=4=2=4	3.13	17.54	79.33	1984
56	4=3=3=3	4=3=3=3	5.11	9.09	85.80	352
57	6=3=2=2	3=2=5=3	2.10	29.11	68.79	2233
58	6=3=2=2	3=2=3=5	2.05	29.58	68.37	2248
59	6=3=2=2	2=2=5=4	6.88	20.83	72.30	2108
60	6=3=2=2	2=2=4=5	7.77	19.86	72.37	2150
61	5=3=3=2	4=5=2=2	2.76	25.69	71.55	1849
62	5=3=3=2	4=2=5=2	3.12	27.46	69.41	1857
63	5=3=3=2	3=3=5=2	2.13	16.11	81.76	1831
64	4=5=2=2	4=3=2=4	1.20	41.33	57.47	1500
65	4=5=2=2	4=3=4=2	2.24	42.01	55.75	1426
66	6=3=2=2	3=3=2=5	2.60	25.17	72.23	1768
67	6=3=2=2	3=3=5=2	3.10	26.45	70.45	1709
68	5=4=2=2	3=4=2=4	3.24	15.55	81.21	958
69	5=4=2=2	3=4=4=2	1.54	18.79	79.67	974
70	6=3=2=2	2=4=2=5	10.10	15.82	74.08	1555
71	5=3=3=2	3=5=2=3	1.69	25.00	73.31	1360
72	6=3=2=2	2=4=5=2	8.02	18.97	73.01	1571
73	6=3=2=2	3=5=3=2	4.10	7.53	88.37	1341
74	6=3=2=2	3=5=2=3	3.47	7.58	88.95	1385
75	4=5=2=2	4=2=2=5	7.66	44.11	48.22	1070
76	4=5=2=2	4=2=5=2	7.96	44.01	48.04	993
77	5=3=3=2	3=5=3=2	1.83	18.75	79.42	1040
78	6=3=2=2	2=5=3=3	3.09	10.11	86.80	1068
79	5=3=3=2	3=2=2=6	1.90	31.57	66.52	1156
80	5=4=2=2	3=2=2=6	2.55	28.51	68.94	982
81	6=3=2=2	3=2=2=6	3.67	23.11	73.23	818
82	6=3=2=2	3=2=6=2	1.89	24.43	73.68	741
83	6=3=2=2	2=5=4=2	4.02	11.10	84.88	721
84	6=3=2=2	2=5=2=4	3.10	11.50	85.40	678
85	5=4=2=2	3=2=6=2	2.32	36.01	61.67	647
86	6=3=2=2	2=2=3=6	2.99	15.57	81.44	668
87	6=3=2=2	2=3=2=6	2.52	15.32	82.16	555
88	5=4=2=2	4=5=2=2	0.85	19.72	79.44	355
89	6=3=2=2	2=2=6=3	3.96	21.67	74.38	480
90	6=3=2=2	2=3=6=2	3.91	19.27	76.82	358
91	6=3=2=2	3=6=2=2	0.00	2.97	97.03	202
Average for 91 Cases			4.12	27.63	68.26	2444
Total Times			9154	61,436	151,792	222,382

Study 8J05 Main

Top Notrump or Suit Fit?

© 2014 Richard Pavlicek