Study 7A23 Main |
| by Richard Pavlicek |
What is the par score for a bridge deal? How is it calculated? You wont find the answers in the classic, Bubba Watson on the Play of the Hand, but you might find them here. Most experienced players have a general idea of the logic, but few understand it completely. This study describes the algorithm I use to calculate par scores, the special case of par zero deals, and statistics of actual par scores.
Par Score Calculation | Par Zero Deals | Par Score Stats |
The first step to calculate the par score is to determine the highest makable contract by rank (not score) for each side. The side that makes the higher contract must be the board winner, because a plus score can be assured by bidding and making that contract or by defeating the opponents if they bid any further. In most cases this determines par immediately.
1. None vul | Q 4 K 7 5 3 2 K J 10 6 5 3 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 10 = 3 = 26 | 9 = 4 = 26 | 8 = 5 = 26 | 9 = 3 = 24 | 12 = 1 = 26 | |
K 9 6 3 J 5 2 J 10 9 6 7 2 | J 8 5 Q 8 7 6 3 Q 8 4 A 9 | |||||||
A 10 7 4 2 A K 10 9 A Q 8 4 | Par: NS +920, 6 N or S |
North or South can make 6 , either by ruffing two diamonds, or by establishing the long spade if the defense leads two rounds of trumps. No higher contract is makable by anyone, so this appears to be par.
The next step is to determine if the losing side has a profitable sacrifice at the vulnerability, and if so, that sacrifice becomes the par score for the winning side. On the previous deal the most East-West could win is five tricks in hearts, so a sacrifice in 6 would be down seven doubled (minus 1700) which is hardly profitable to put it mildly. Now consider this deal:
2. Both vul | A 9 7 5 9 5 4 6 3 K Q 7 3 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 3 = 7 = 20 | 2 = 10 = 24 | 9 = 4 = 26 | 2 = 10 = 24 | 9 = 4 = 26 | |
Q 10 6 4 2 K 8 A 9 8 2 A 2 | K J 8 7 2 K Q J 10 7 J 8 6 | |||||||
3 A Q J 10 6 3 5 4 10 9 5 4 | Par: EW +500, 5 × S or N |
East-West own the highest makable contract at 4 , but N-S can win nine tricks in hearts. Therefore, N-S do better to bid 5 , which when doubled surrenders only 500 instead of 620. Curiously, N-S could also sacrifice in clubs, but the score would be the same, which is all that matters.
If the losing side has no profitable sacrifice against the highest makable contract, it is necessary to check the winning side for alternate contracts that score higher. Three situations must be considered:
Highest make 5 or 5 → check for 4 NT, 4 or 4 |
Highest make 4 or 4 → check for 3 NT, 3 or 3 |
Highest make 3 or 3 → check for 2 NT |
If a higher scoring contract exists, it does not necessarily become the par contract; a further check for sacrifices is required. The losing side may have a profitable save against the higher scoring contract but not against the higher ranking contract, in which case this new sacrifice becomes par, unless the winning side does better to take its score for the higher ranking contract. This is easier than it sounds, applying little more than common sense. Consider this deal:
3. E-W vul | K 7 2 J 10 5 A K 8 2 A 4 2 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 9 = 4 = 26 | 9 = 4 = 26 | 5 = 6 = 22 | 10 = 2 = 24 | 4 = 9 = 26 | |
10 8 A K 9 7 4 4 K Q J 9 3 | J 9 5 3 8 2 7 6 5 10 8 7 5 | |||||||
A Q 6 4 Q 6 3 Q J 10 9 3 6 | Par: NS +200, 4 × W or E |
North-South own the highest make at 4 , against which E-W have no profitable sacrifice; but N-S also make 3 NT. Should the par score then be 400 for N-S? No, because if N-S bid 3 NT, E-W would have a profitable sacrifice in 4 , which becomes the par contract (doubled, down one). If E-W were nonvulnerable, 4 × would net only 100, so N-S do better to ignore it and take their 4 ; then par would be 130.
Study 7A23 Main | Top Par for the Course |
Almost all practical cases of determining the par score are resolved by the preceding calculation, but a few loose ends still exist. What if neither side can make any contract? On the following deal no one can win more than six tricks in any strain. This is rare, but the obvious consequence is a par score of zero. A perfect passout!
4. None vul | 7 6 5 4 8 3 9 5 A K Q J 10 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 5 = 3 = 16 | 5 = 5 = 20 | 4 = 6 = 20 | 6 = 3 = 18 | 6 = 3 = 18 | |
A K Q 8 2 J 10 8 3 9 5 3 2 | 10 A K Q 9 7 2 7 4 2 8 6 4 | |||||||
J 9 3 10 6 5 4 A K Q J 6 7 | Par: Zero, Passout |
Another possible situation, even more unlikely, is both sides making the same contract. Consider the following symmetric deal in which everybody makes 1 NT. Who deserves the 90 points? One possibility is to assign plus par to the dealing side, because they have the first opportunity to bid 1 NT, but this seems unfair.
5. None vul | 10 8 A 5 4 Q J 3 2 K 9 7 6 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 7 = 7 = 28 | 6 = 6 = 24 | 6 = 6 = 24 | 6 = 6 = 24 | 6 = 6 = 24 | |
A 5 4 Q J 3 2 K 9 7 6 10 8 | K 9 7 6 10 8 A 5 4 Q J 3 2 | |||||||
Q J 3 2 K 9 7 6 10 8 A 5 4 | Par: Zero, Passout |
My decision is to assign par zero to any deal in which the highest make for both sides is the same contract. Vulnerability does not matter. The deal is like a jump ball in basketball; whoever grabs the opportunity beats par.
Consider the following deal I composed for my Optimum Contract puzzle, where the object was to find the best contracts for N-S and E-W. Remarkably, 3 is the best contract for both sides. South and East both win nine tricks in spades against any defense. Hard to believe, but proof is in the play.
6. None vul | 9 J 10 9 A Q 4 3 2 A K Q 2 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 5 = 8 = 26 | 4 9 4 9 26 | 5 = 8 = 26 | 4 5 8 9 26 | 5 = 8 = 26 | |
J 10 9 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 4 3 | A K Q 8 A K Q 8 7 K J 10 9 | |||||||
J 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 6 5 4 3 2 | Par: Zero, Passout |
For the ultimate fantasy, witness this deal from my Fewest HCP To Make Notrump record book. With only 11 HCP, South is cold for 7 NT with any lead. Strange enough, but the eerie fact is that so is West. Therefore, to keep in line with my arbitrary rule, par remains at zero. Bid 7 NT first to claim your prize!
7. None vul | 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 7 6 5 4 3 2 | Makes North South West East Deal | NT 0 13 13 0 26 | 12 13 1 0 26 | 1 2 12 11 26 | 1 2 12 11 26 | 0 = 13 = 26 | |
K K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 | A K Q J 10 9 A K Q J 10 9 8 | |||||||
A Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 A | Par: Zero, Passout |
Somehow, I wouldnt predict a passout. East will surely bid 7 , and South will bid 7 not realizing he has left West a chance to be a hero. But hey, maybe East will try to be the hero. In any case, both sides making 7 NT may be the short route to the looney bin.
Study 7A23 Main | Top Par for the Course |
Source for this par-score analysis was my database of 10,485,760 random deals, each of which is solved 20 times (4 hands x 5 strains) with double-dummy play. Separate analyses were made for each of the four vulnerability conditions, because this affects the number and value of par scores. Results are summarized below.
Par scores are considered as absolute values, regardless of which side is plus, or neither side if par zero. Note that the first four rows of the table are the same for each column, since vulnerability has no effect on which side is plus to par. The number of deals with N-S plus or E-W plus (Rows 2 and 3) are equal in theory, but only bear close proximity in this small sample. Yes, 10+ million is small, indeed infinitesimal in relation to 53+ octillion possible bridge deals.
Summary | None Vul | Both Vul | N-S Vul | E-W Vul |
---|---|---|---|---|
Deals analyzed | 10,485,760 | 10,485,760 | 10,485,760 | 10,485,760 |
Par plus N-S | 5,241,511 | 5,241,511 | 5,241,511 | 5,241,511 |
Par plus E-W | 5,243,995 | 5,243,995 | 5,243,995 | 5,243,995 |
Par zero | 254 | 254 | 254 | 254 |
Unique scores | 25 | 26 | 38 | 38 |
Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum | 1520 | 2220 | 2220 | 2220 |
Mode | 100 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
Median | 400 | 600 | 400 | 400 |
Mean | 372 | 530 | 441 | 441 |
Standard deviation | 317 | 475 | 403 | 403 |
In duplicate bridge there are 205 possible absolute scores, but only 25 to 38 of them (depending on vulnerability) are possible as par scores. For instance, common bridge scores of 50, 150 and 170 can never be par scores.
The following four tables show the breakdown of absolute par scores by vulnerability condition. Percents of par score occurrence are shown in three ways: for the specific score, at least that score, and at most that score. To find the chance of multiple scores (e.g., 110 to 140) add the specific percents for each score.
Score | Deals | Specific | At Least | At Most |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 254 | 0.0024 | 100 | 0.0024 |
70 | 544 | 0.0052 | 99.9976 | 0.0076 |
80 | 25,534 | 0.2435 | 99.9924 | 0.2511 |
90 | 311,654 | 2.9722 | 99.7489 | 3.2233 |
100 | 1,703,194 | 16.2429 | 96.7767 | 19.4662 |
110 | 471,717 | 4.4986 | 80.5338 | 23.9649 |
120 | 426,000 | 4.0627 | 76.0351 | 28.0275 |
130 | 396,295 | 3.7794 | 71.9725 | 31.8069 |
140 | 1,126,959 | 10.7475 | 68.1931 | 42.5544 |
300 | 574,095 | 5.4750 | 57.4456 | 48.0294 |
400 | 857,017 | 8.1732 | 51.9706 | 56.2025 |
420 | 1,172,303 | 11.1800 | 43.7975 | 67.3825 |
430 | 635,759 | 6.0631 | 32.6175 | 73.4456 |
450 | 940,380 | 8.9682 | 26.5544 | 82.4137 |
460 | 440,033 | 4.1965 | 17.5863 | 86.6102 |
500 | 42,423 | 0.4046 | 13.3898 | 87.0148 |
800 | 92,577 | 0.8829 | 12.9852 | 87.8977 |
920 | 231,696 | 2.2096 | 12.1023 | 90.1073 |
980 | 379,389 | 3.6181 | 9.8927 | 93.7254 |
990 | 354,495 | 3.3807 | 6.2746 | 97.1062 |
1100 | 7832 | 0.0747 | 2.8938 | 97.1808 |
1400 | 11,700 | 0.1116 | 2.8192 | 97.2924 |
1440 | 50,858 | 0.4850 | 2.7076 | 97.7774 |
1510 | 87,483 | 0.8343 | 2.2226 | 98.6117 |
1520 | 145,569 | 1.3883 | 1.3883 | 100 |
U = 25 | 10,485,760 | 100 | 2600 |
Score | Deals | Specific | At Least | At Most |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 254 | 0.0024 | 100 | 0.0024 |
70 | 544 | 0.0052 | 99.9976 | 0.0076 |
80 | 25,534 | 0.2435 | 99.9924 | 0.2511 |
90 | 311,654 | 2.9722 | 99.7489 | 3.2233 |
110 | 1,125,546 | 10.7340 | 96.7767 | 13.9573 |
120 | 596,794 | 5.6915 | 86.0427 | 19.6488 |
130 | 494,735 | 4.7182 | 80.3512 | 24.3670 |
140 | 1,626,205 | 15.5087 | 75.6330 | 39.8757 |
200 | 280,305 | 2.6732 | 60.1243 | 42.5489 |
500 | 574,095 | 5.4750 | 57.4511 | 48.0239 |
600 | 857,597 | 8.1787 | 51.9761 | 56.2025 |
620 | 1,172,303 | 11.1800 | 43.7975 | 67.3825 |
630 | 635,759 | 6.0631 | 32.6175 | 73.4456 |
650 | 940,380 | 8.9682 | 26.5544 | 82.4137 |
660 | 440,033 | 4.1965 | 17.5863 | 86.6102 |
800 | 42,423 | 0.4046 | 13.3898 | 87.0148 |
1100 | 92,577 | 0.8829 | 12.9852 | 87.8977 |
1370 | 231,696 | 2.2096 | 12.1023 | 90.1073 |
1400 | 96,494 | 0.9202 | 9.8927 | 91.0275 |
1430 | 305,448 | 2.9130 | 8.9725 | 93.9405 |
1440 | 339,774 | 3.2403 | 6.0595 | 97.1808 |
1700 | 11,700 | 0.1116 | 2.8192 | 97.2924 |
2000 | 14,757 | 0.1407 | 2.7076 | 97.4332 |
2140 | 39,650 | 0.3781 | 2.5668 | 97.8113 |
2210 | 83,934 | 0.8005 | 2.1887 | 98.6117 |
2220 | 145,569 | 1.3883 | 1.3883 | 100 |
U = 26 | 10,485,760 | 100 | 2700 |
Score | Deals | Specific | At Least | At Most |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 254 | 0.0024 | 100 | 0.0024 |
70 | 544 | 0.0052 | 99.9976 | 0.0076 |
80 | 25,534 | 0.2435 | 99.9924 | 0.2511 |
90 | 311,654 | 2.9722 | 99.7489 | 3.2233 |
100 | 850,820 | 8.1141 | 96.7767 | 11.3373 |
110 | 799,092 | 7.6207 | 88.6627 | 18.9581 |
120 | 511,183 | 4.8750 | 81.0419 | 23.8331 |
130 | 445,768 | 4.2512 | 76.1669 | 28.0843 |
140 | 1,376,763 | 13.1298 | 71.9157 | 41.2141 |
200 | 140,241 | 1.3374 | 58.7859 | 42.5515 |
300 | 287,045 | 2.7375 | 57.4485 | 45.2890 |
400 | 506,497 | 4.8303 | 54.7110 | 50.1194 |
420 | 741,276 | 7.0694 | 49.8806 | 57.1887 |
430 | 329,155 | 3.1391 | 42.8113 | 60.3278 |
450 | 503,739 | 4.8040 | 39.6722 | 65.1318 |
460 | 221,220 | 2.1097 | 34.8682 | 67.2415 |
500 | 464,681 | 4.4315 | 32.7585 | 71.6731 |
600 | 295,134 | 2.8146 | 28.3269 | 74.4877 |
620 | 388,047 | 3.7007 | 25.5123 | 78.1884 |
630 | 286,214 | 2.7295 | 21.8116 | 80.9179 |
650 | 402,711 | 3.8406 | 19.0821 | 84.7585 |
660 | 215,268 | 2.0530 | 15.2415 | 86.8114 |
800 | 67,398 | 0.6428 | 13.1886 | 87.4542 |
920 | 136,161 | 1.2985 | 12.5458 | 88.7527 |
980 | 211,293 | 2.0150 | 11.2473 | 90.7678 |
990 | 179,206 | 1.7090 | 9.2322 | 92.4768 |
1100 | 80,221 | 0.7650 | 7.5232 | 93.2419 |
1370 | 86,306 | 0.8231 | 6.7581 | 94.0650 |
1400 | 75,703 | 0.7220 | 5.9350 | 94.7869 |
1430 | 104,401 | 0.9956 | 5.2131 | 95.7826 |
1440 | 182,287 | 1.7384 | 4.2174 | 97.5210 |
1510 | 45,358 | 0.4326 | 2.4790 | 97.9535 |
1520 | 72,677 | 0.6931 | 2.0465 | 98.6467 |
1700 | 7313 | 0.0697 | 1.3533 | 98.7164 |
2000 | 7979 | 0.0761 | 1.2836 | 98.7925 |
2140 | 13,688 | 0.1305 | 1.2075 | 98.9230 |
2210 | 40,037 | 0.3818 | 1.0770 | 99.3048 |
2220 | 72,892 | 0.6952 | 0.6952 | 100 |
U = 38 | 10,485,760 | 100 | 3900 |
Score | Deals | Specific | At Least | At Most |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 254 | 0.0024 | 100 | 0.0024 |
70 | 544 | 0.0052 | 99.9976 | 0.0076 |
80 | 25,534 | 0.2435 | 99.9924 | 0.2511 |
90 | 311,654 | 2.9722 | 99.7489 | 3.2233 |
100 | 852,374 | 8.1289 | 96.7767 | 11.3522 |
110 | 798,171 | 7.6120 | 88.6478 | 18.9641 |
120 | 511,611 | 4.8791 | 81.0359 | 23.8432 |
130 | 445,262 | 4.2463 | 76.1568 | 28.0896 |
140 | 1,376,401 | 13.1264 | 71.9104 | 41.2159 |
200 | 140,064 | 1.3358 | 58.7841 | 42.5517 |
300 | 287,050 | 2.7375 | 57.4483 | 45.2892 |
400 | 507,378 | 4.8387 | 54.7108 | 50.1280 |
420 | 742,218 | 7.0783 | 49.8720 | 57.2063 |
430 | 329,950 | 3.1466 | 42.7937 | 60.3529 |
450 | 502,760 | 4.7947 | 39.6471 | 65.1476 |
460 | 221,243 | 2.1099 | 34.8524 | 67.2576 |
500 | 465,264 | 4.4371 | 32.7424 | 71.6947 |
600 | 293,876 | 2.8026 | 28.3053 | 74.4973 |
620 | 386,854 | 3.6893 | 25.5027 | 78.1866 |
630 | 285,765 | 2.7253 | 21.8134 | 80.9119 |
650 | 403,453 | 3.8476 | 19.0881 | 84.7595 |
660 | 215,379 | 2.0540 | 15.2405 | 86.8135 |
800 | 67,602 | 0.6447 | 13.1865 | 87.4582 |
920 | 136,400 | 1.3008 | 12.5418 | 88.7591 |
980 | 211,021 | 2.0125 | 11.2409 | 90.7715 |
990 | 180,089 | 1.7175 | 9.2285 | 92.4890 |
1100 | 79,335 | 0.7566 | 7.5110 | 93.2456 |
1370 | 86,315 | 0.8232 | 6.7544 | 94.0687 |
1400 | 75,452 | 0.7196 | 5.9313 | 94.7883 |
1430 | 104,952 | 1.0009 | 5.2117 | 95.7892 |
1440 | 181,405 | 1.7300 | 4.2108 | 97.5192 |
1510 | 45,237 | 0.4314 | 2.4808 | 97.9506 |
1520 | 72,892 | 0.6952 | 2.0494 | 98.6458 |
1700 | 7444 | 0.0710 | 1.3542 | 98.7168 |
2000 | 8077 | 0.0770 | 1.2832 | 98.7938 |
2140 | 13,686 | 0.1305 | 1.2062 | 98.9243 |
2210 | 40,117 | 0.3826 | 1.0757 | 99.3069 |
2220 | 72,677 | 0.6931 | 0.6931 | 100 |
U = 38 | 10,485,760 | 100 | 3900 |
Mathematical check total of At Least + At Most columns = 100(U+1).
Study 7A23 Main | Top Par for the Course |
© 2014 Richard Pavlicek