Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge
The Art of Self-Defense
Scores
by Richard PavlicekAnalyses 8Y32 Main Challenge |
| Scores by Richard Pavlicek |
These six problems were published on the Internet in April 2007 as a contest open to all bridge players. As West, your opening lead wins the first trick, and you were asked to choose your next lead from the options listed.
| Problem 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Final Notes |
The Fort Lauderdale Chamber of Commerce awarded me a “key to the city,” not only for my well-received Academy but because it solved an annual problem. “Spring break” has confounded law enforcement since the 1950s, with raucous beach parties, and drug and alcohol abuse.
My solution was to teach Pav-Kwon-Do to every police officer on beach patrol. Now all they have to do is twirl a foot, and the beach is a ghost town! What can I say? College students vow never to return, so we may have to retitle our theme song to Where the Boys Aren't.
Word spread quickly. My phone rings off the hook with offers from Chicago, Detroit, and who knows where else.
[Ring Ring] There it goes again! Hello… Where next?… Baghdad?
Carsten Kofoed Wins!This contest had 895 participants from 115 locations, and the average score was 38.46. Congratulations to Carsten Kofoed (Sweden) who submitted the first of two perfect scores. Carsten was a regular, strong participant in my old series (three times runner-up) so his time was due. Also scoring 60 was N. Scott Cardell (Washington) who is no surprise either. Scott is well-known for his articles on card play, especially bizarre squeezes, and I enjoyed having dinner with him (and our wives) a few years ago. Close behind at 59 was Jerry Fink (Ohio), followed by three regular contenders at 58: Perry Groot (Netherlands), Rainer Herrmann (Germany) and John Lusky (Oregon).
OK, you really humiliated me this time, with the third consecutive attendance drop. I’ve already put out contacts to locate Fritz (last seen selling showshoes in Ecuador) so you can be sure he’ll be reappearing this year to get even. I suppose my topic of matchpoint defense was the real culprit, but you have to realize that winning bridge is not all roses; or maybe what they say about the game dying is true. Time will tell.
The average score (38.46) was the lowest this year, not surprising for the topic, but this reflects a variety of factors including field competence, problem difficulty and my scoring decisions. Only 419 players scored 39 or higher to make the listing. None of the problems were aced by the consensus. Two problems were close, meriting 9-awards for second place, of which Problem 6 proved to be the most difficult to analyze in a long time.
Overall standings are based on best three scores in the four contests this year. Tim DeLaney (Indiana) remains atop the leaderboard with a 59.67 average, despite a lesser showing this month. Many perennial contenders are in hot pursuit: Leif-Erik Stabell (Zimbabwe) with 59.33, Darek Kardas (Poland) and John Lusky (Oregon) with 59.00, Bruce Neill (Australia) and Lajos Linczmayer (Hungary) with 58.67.
Speaking of declining participation, Audrey Kueh (England) amused me with her anagram of my title: “He End Effortless Feat?” Well, keep discouraging me and find out! For now at least, I remain unperturbed. You’re the ones who need to be looking over your shoulder, because Fritz may be nearer than you think.
Bidding is standard (except as noted) and you use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.
Each defensive problem offered six plausible leads for West at trick two. The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale per my judgment, which may be influenced by comments received.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge |  | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 1
| Matchpoints E-W Vul |  7 3 2 Q 7 4 A 10 5 3 K 10 5
| You WEST 1 Pass Pass | Dummy North Pass Pass 3
| Partner East Pass 2 All Pass | Declarer South 2 Pass | |
| A K 9 6 5 K 3 Q 9 7 Q 9 7
|  | 3 South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead K
| 2nd 2 | 3rd Q | 4th 4 |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | 189 | 21 |
| A | 9 | 273 | 31 |
| Q | 7 | 44 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | 282 | 32 |
| 9 | 2 | 53 | 6 |
| Q | 1 | 54 | 6 |
For the first exchange of the bout, you and partner apply a one-two punch, lunging out with the king and queen on the same trick. Take that! Declarer seems unperturbed, as he follows with the lowly four. As you plot your next move, you wonder about partner’s queen; he must be trying to tell you something.
Established practice is that a queen signal promises the jack; else a singleton queen, which can’t be the case because of partner’s raise. A common misconception is that it demands you to underlead the ace next. No, it only demands that you use your head for something besides a punching bag. Knowledge that partner has a likely entry with the J can be put to good use, but not immediately.
Besides three obvious tricks in the majors, you need to win a club and a diamond. Partner can’t have an ace or king after passing 1 (with Q-J-x) so your only hope is to find him with both minor-suit jacks. South’s most likely shape is 2=5=3=3, which means you must attack clubs before declarer can get a discard on the fourth diamond. Consider the following layout:
| Matchpoints | 7 3 2 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| E-W Vul | Q 7 4 | 1 W | K | 2 | Q | 4 | |
| A 10 5 3 | 2 W | 9! | 10 | J | A | ||
| K 10 5 | 3 S | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | ||
| A K 9 6 5 | | Q J 10 | 4 E | 6 | 2 | 7 | K |
| K 3 | 8 6 5 | 5 N | 7 | J | 2 | 6 | |
| Q 9 7 | J 8 6 | 6 S | 8 | Q | 5 | 3 | |
| Q 9 7 | J 6 4 3 | 7 W | 7 | 10 | J | K | |
| 8 4 | Declarer fails | ||||||
| A J 10 9 2
| |||||||
| K 4 2
| |||||||
| 3 South | A 8 2 | ||||||
At trick two you must shift to the club nine; 10, jack, ace. Suppose declarer next leads a spade to the 10, and East returns the 6.* Declarer does best to win in dummy, ruff the remaining spade and exit with a club to your queen. A diamond shift** then provides two more tricks, even though declarer will try to endplay again with ace and another heart.
*If East held the 8, he should return the 3; then you should unblock to avoid the problem in the next note. This follows the general principle after dummy is in view to lead high from nothing, or low from an honor (or significant card).
**Any diamond works, as partner must have the 8 to succeed legitimately. Best is to lead the 7, because if South has K-8-x, he must guess immediately whether you have Q-J-7 or Q-9-7. Leading the Q also affords a guess, but I think declarer is more apt to guess right. Curiously, the seemingly technical lead of the 9 is worst, as declarer can’t go wrong after covering with the 10.
A close second goes to the A. While this decreases the chance of setting the contract, cashing out might be necessary at matchpoints. For example, if South has x-x A-J-10-x-x K-J A-x-x-x (or K-x-x-x A-J) a second spade holds declarer to nine tricks, but anything else allows 10. Further, after cashing the A, you will still switch to clubs (unless the J drops) and succeed if partner has J-8-x-x. Indeed, my tests showed the trick average of the A to be a tad higher than the 9 at double-dummy; but the 9 prevails because declarer may guess wrong, and most of its losses had partner making a dubious bid* and/or South being conservative.
*For example, would you compete to 2 vulnerable on Q-J-8 J-x-x x-x-x-x J-x-x?
Third place goes to leading the Q, which is clearly inferior to the 9. If declarer has A-8-x, he will almost surely win the K to freeze the suit from further attack. If partner has the 8, of course, this will suffice to establish your club trick in time.
The 6 must settle for fourth place, despite being the popular choice. A club shift by East is useless, as declarer just captures your queen with the king to freeze the suit. Even if East has J-8-x-x, declarer can maneuver to concede a diamond to East before dislodging the K, thus avoiding a club loser. Further, if East has Q-J doubleton, your A could disappear; while cashing it allows partner to ruff the third spade. My award of 6 is generous, because I am reminded of what Confucius say: “Yield to mass, protect ass.”
Shifting to a diamond is worst by far. If you’re entitled to a diamond trick, it won’t go away; so this can only help declarer. Imagine if South has x-x A-10-x-x-x-x K-J A-x-x — making five, as the only trick you’ll now get is the K. Between the Q and 9, the latter saves a trick when South has K-x-x-x. If you lead the queen to the king, declarer may show you a flying dropkick on the next round.
Comments for the 9Carsten Kofoed: I must use the tempo to develop a club trick.
N. Scott Cardell: From the bidding and play, East must have Q-J-x, and he wouldn’t have passed 1 with an additional ace or king; and if East has J-x-x, we still have only one trump trick; so declarer has at least eight tricks (four hearts and four minor tops). … If declarer is 2=5=4=2 or 2=5=2=4, there is nothing I can do, as he will surely guess either minor queen on the bidding. A plausible case where my play matters is when South is 2=5=3=3, and partner has both minor jacks; then I can set up a club trick before declarer can discard his club loser on the long diamond. …
Jerry Fink: This will force out the 10, jack and ace; then partner’s J will furnish an entry for a club through declarer’s 8-x. An immediate lead of the Q freezes the suit. I need to time correctly the kick from partner in the club suit.
Best at “timing kicks” was Sergio Zucchelli 32 years ago. Or was it Zucchini? Never mind. I better squash this.
Perry Groot: I will play South for something like x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x K-8-x. Next I’ll cross to partner’s J, and he will return a club.
Rainer Herrmann: Finally, a surrounding play. I’ll play partner for both minor-suit jacks.
Lajos Linczmayer: Unless South has a bare K-J, I must attack clubs right away. If partner has, say, Q-J-x x-x-x J-x-x J-x-x-x, declarer makes nine ticks, as I must lead diamonds twice. If he has Q-J-x x-x-x J-x-x J-8-x-x, or Q-J-x J-x-x J-x-x J-x-x-x (less likely, but at matchpoints it is better to pass 1 ), we can beat 3 . With the latter, I expect partner to play high-low in hearts.
Leif-Erik Stabell: Partner cannot have more than Q-J-x and a couple of jacks, so I hope for Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x.
Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible East hand: Q-J-8 x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x. [Later] partner will win the J, and his club switch defeats the contract. If partner doesn’t hold the 8, declarer wins with an elimination play.
Claude Valiquette: Danger is that declarer can establish the diamond suit for a club discard, so I attack clubs with the nine to prepare a surrounding of the 8 (if South has it). I must keep communication with partner by not playing another spade…
Adrian Barna: Playing South for x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x. We can establish a club trick before declarer can discard his club loser on dummy’s fourth diamond. … When partner wins the J, he should lead a club through South’s eight.
David Kenward: Hopefully, partner has Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x, and we can set up a club trick and wait for a diamond.
Okan Ozcan: I think South has x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x, so I must shift to the 9,…and partner will continue clubs when in with the J. …
Brad Theurer: I will try to [develop] a club trick before it goes away on dummy’s long diamond, catering for x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x with South. If it goes 10-jack-ace, I can lead a spade to partner for a club return.
Jonathan Mestel: I’ll regret this if South has K-J tight; but the partner of my dreams holds Q-J-x x-x-x J-x-x J-x-x-x — and maybe the 8, too.
David Caprera: We need to get our club trick before diamonds are established…
Thijs Veugen: When South has x-x A-J-x-x-x K-x-x A-8-x, I must [attack] clubs now.
Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: If partner has Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x, I can reach him later with the J to play a club through and develop the setting trick in time.
Bruce Neill: If partner has Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x, I need to play clubs before declarer’s loser disappears on the fourth diamond.
Richard Stein: Diamonds are far more of a threat to us than clubs. If partner can produce the J,…this will knock out the 10, jack and ace; then I can lead to his J for another club to the eight, queen and king — setting up my 7…
Barry White: I suspect South may have something like x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x K-8-x, so I need to start clubs, [else] the diamond suit can be set up for a pitch.
Sebastien Louveaux: I need to establish a club trick before declarer establishes the fourth diamond. Leading the 9 caters to declarer having the 8 (partner will play back a club when he wins the J).
Dale Freeman: Playing partner for the minor-suit jacks, and [preserving] his spade entry to get a second club through, before declarer can set up diamonds for a club pitch.
Andrew de Sosa: In quest of our club trick, should partner hold the J. Next…I will let partner win the J to lead a club through South’s eight.
Toby Kenney: The second round of clubs must come from partner [if South has A-8-x], so I’ll [preserve] his entry with the J.
Paulino Correa: Partner has very little, hopefully Q-J-x and both minor-suit jacks. Unfortunately, my apparently safe spade lead now demands that he also has the 8 or 8; otherwise, declarer (with x-x A-J-10-x-x K-8-x A-8-x) can throw me in [twice] to lead diamonds or yield a ruff-sluff.
Martin Hirschman: [To defeat 3 ], partner needs both minor-suit jacks, and South must be 2=5=3=3 (e.g., x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x). [Play described].
Kauko Koistinen: Declarer has eight tricks and will establish dummy’s fourth diamond for a club discard if given time. Partner must have Q-J-x and both minor-suit jacks, giving South x-x A-J-x-x-x K-x-x A-8-x. Leading the Q is not good enough, as declarer will rise with the K, then we cannot establish a club trick.
Tong Xu: I need to attack clubs before declarer develops a diamond trick.
Paul Gosney: To set up a club before diamonds get going. I will underlead to partner’s J later for a club through South…
David Grainger: Playing partner for the minor-suit jacks. I need to keep a spade entry for partner to lead the second club.
Gerald Cohen: On the bidding, best chance is to play partner for Q-J and the minor-suit jacks; so I need to set up a club trick before declarer throws his club loser on the fourth diamond. By leading the 9, I do not need partner to hold the 8; as I can put partner in with a spade for a club return to surround South’s possible eight.
Venkatesh Ramaratnam: At best, partner can have a minor-suit jack or two in addition to his spade honors. Playing from the Q is [unlikely] to cost, since declarer will guess it right anyway if required. If South has x-x A-J-x-x-x K-x-x A-8-x, only the 9 gives us a chance to set up a club before the 13th diamond is set up.
John Auld: Planning to use partner’s J [entry] for the next club lead.
Nigel Guthrie: I hope to set up a club before declarer can discard it on a diamond.
George Klemic: …Given the auction [and partner’s spade signal], he can’t have anything else, outside of a jack or two. Are two jacks enough to beat this? Perhaps, if they are the minors. Leading the 9 caters to declarer holding A-8-x; and it can’t hurt, since declarer would finesse me anyway if held the J. …
Dick Yuen: Even if South has four clubs, this cannot hurt; while a diamond switch is dangerous, as dummy’s fourth diamond may provide a club discard.
Jyrki Lahtonen: Declarer is marked with the rounded aces and K, and with either minor-suit jack he is likely to finesse me for the queen. Therefore, I probably need to play partner for both minor jacks, and I need to develop a club trick before declarer can do something with diamonds. [Play described].
Jim Munday: Playing for South to have something like x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x. A diamond shift will establish a trick, but it sets up a club pitch. I need to preserve partner’s entry to lead a club through the eight spot.
Imre Csiszar: On the bidding, declarer will guess all finesses; so 3 can be set only if South is 2=5=3=3 lacking both minor jacks, and I lead the 9. As partner would have passed 1 with Q-J-x x-x-x J-x-x J-x-x-x, I cannot resist trying this chance — though I will regret it if South holds K-J or A-J doubleton.
Tim DeLaney: Trying to set up a club by [trapping] the 10, hoping partner holds Q-J-x x-x-x J-x-x J-x-x-x. Even so, declarer can make nine tricks at double-dummy but probably won’t.
Mark Chen: A surrounding play. I hope partner has Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x; then he will continue clubs when he wins the J.
Jordi Sabate: Trying to develop a club trick if partner has at least J-x-x-(x). If the 9 is covered 10-jack-ace, partner will lead another club when he wins the J.
Gerald Murphy: Trying to get a club trick before declarer throws it on the fourth diamond.
Douglas Dunn: [If next] in with the K, I’ll play a small spade to partner’s jack for a club return.
Dean Pokorny: When partner has Q-J-10 x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x, it is important to develop a club trick (preserving spade communication) before it vanishes on the 13th diamond.
Roger Morton: Diamonds will likely provide a late discard for declarer, so I must attack clubs now; then put partner in with the J to return a club to my Q-7.
Peter Gill: Hoping partner has Q-J-x x-x-x J-8-x J-x-x-x. The alternative to promote J-x-x requires 6 HCP from partner.
John Reardon: If South has x-x A-J-10-x-x K-x-x A-8-x, I must switch to the 9 while partner still has the J. Even at matchpoints, I think this is best.
Barry Rigal: This needs the J and J from partner — though the location of the minor-suit eights may be critical.
Joon Pahk: Partner doesn’t have the A, so this can’t blow a trick; and if he has J-x-x-x, I might need to start clubs now before declarer can set up a diamond discard. I’ll underlead the spade later, in case we need to trap the 8.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge |  | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 2
| Matchpoints Both Vul | 10 9 A Q 6 5 A Q 9 10 8 6 5
| You West Pass Pass | Dummy North 1 3 NT | Partner East Pass All Pass | Declarer SOUTH 1 1 NT | |
| K Q J 5 J 9 7 4 8 6 Q J 4
|  | 3 NT South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead K
| 2nd 9 | 3rd 7 | 4th 2 |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 10 | 89 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | 87 | 10 |
| Q | 7 | 71 | 8 |
| Q | 6 | 264 | 29 |
| J | 5 | 305 | 34 |
| 5 | 4 | 79 | 9 |
Your opening lead seems to have dealt declarer a crushing blow, as you can see four fast tricks after partner’s encouraging signal, which must show the ace.* Indeed, partner could even have five spades, although that would mean South rebid 1 NT with 8-x — unlikely, as most Souths would then prefer a raise with K-x-x. Partner is a strong favorite to have A-7-x-x; but A-7-x is plausible, as South might bypass a 1 rebid with 8-x-x-x.
*Standard attitude signals are generally specific to the suit led. Partner should not encourage with worthless cards, unless he is certain that a continuation is safe; and he couldn’t be here, as you could have A-K-J-(x). Note that the so-called “obvious shift principle” promulgated by Matt Granovetter is not a standard agreement.
The obvious defense is to take ‘em and run; the only question being which spade to lead next, which probably doesn’t matter with partner having four. Time out! If partner has the A, declarer is marked with the K, K and A-K, which gives him eight top tricks. What will you discard on the third diamond? Ouch! You will be pulverized — or in Pav-Kwon-Do, pavlerized. Consider a likely layout:
| Matchpoints | 10 9 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| Both Vul | A Q 6 5 | 1 W | K | 9 | 7 | 2 | |
| A Q 9 | 2 W | Q? | 10 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 10 8 6 5 | 3 W | 5 | 5 | A | 8 | ||
| K Q J 5 | | A 7 6 3 | 4 E | 6 | 3 | J | 9
|
| J 9 7 4 | 10 3 | 5 W | J | 6 | 2 | A | |
| 8 6 | J 10 7 5 4 | 6 S | 2 | 6 | A | 4 | |
| Q J 4 | 9 2 | 7 N | Q | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| 8 4 2 | 8 N | A | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||
| K 8 2 | 9 N | 5 | 10 | K | 7 | ||
| K 3 2 | 10 S | K | 4 | 8 | 9 | ||
| 3 NT South | A K 7 3 | continued below… | |||||
If spades are run, declarer will pitch a club and a diamond from dummy (not two clubs to preserve the chance of Q-J doubleton) and a club from hand. After any shift, he will win A-K, A-Q, and A-K ending in hand to reach this ending:
| NT win all | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| Q 6 | 11 S | K | ? | ||||
| — | West is squeezed | ||||||
| 10
| |||||||
| — | | —
| |||||
| J 9 | —
| ||||||
| — | J 10 7
| ||||||
| Q | —
| ||||||
| —
| |||||||
| 8
| |||||||
| K
| |||||||
| South leads | 7 | ||||||
Finally, the K is cashed for the knockout blow. The only question is when to call the paramedics after you lay motionless on the canvas — better hurry, or you may be Pav-Kwon-D.O.A.
What if you cash only three spades? No good either, as declarer will reach this ending:
| NT win 4 | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| A 6 5 | 9 S | K | 5 | 9 | 7 | ||
| 9 | 10 S | 3! | Q | 10 | 10
| ||
| 10 | Declarer succeeds | ||||||
| 5 | | A
| |||||
| J 9 7 | 10
| ||||||
| — | J 10 7
| ||||||
| Q | —
| ||||||
| —
| |||||||
| K 8
| |||||||
| K
| |||||||
| South leads | 7 3 | ||||||
On the K, you can avert the squeeze by pitching your last spade. Alas, declarer will know that your last four cards must be three hearts and a club, so he’ll just concede a club to establish his ninth trick.
To defeat the contract, you need partner to hold the 10, and you must shift to a heart at trick two. Suppose declarer wins the Q and leads a spade (he knows how to parry) which you win to lead the J, won by the king. If declarer leads a third spade, you win and lead the 9 to knock out the ace. This leaves the following ending:
| NT win 6 | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| 6 | 7 N | A | 5 | 2 | 6 | ||
| A Q 9 | 8 N | 9 | 10 | K | 8 | ||
| 10 8 6 | 9 S | 3 | 5! | Q | 7 | ||
| 5 | | A | Declarer fails | ||||
| 7 | —
| ||||||
| 8 6 | J 10 7 5
| ||||||
| Q J 4 | 9 2
| ||||||
| —
| |||||||
| —
| |||||||
| K 3 2
| |||||||
| North leads | A K 7 3 | ||||||
On the third diamond, you can safely part with your last spade. Declarer cannot establish clubs (as in the previous ending) because you have a good heart to cash.
A nice thing about the 4 shift is that it’s matchpoint safe. If South turns up with K-10-(x), it presents the contract immediately instead of later; but declarer cannot win more than nine tricks (four hearts, three diamonds* and two clubs).
*South should not have four diamonds on the bidding, as with 3=2=4=4 the systemic opening is 1 (especially with no spade stopper, as it may be necessary to bid both minors after a spade overcall).
What about shifting to the Q? This doesn’t quite work, as South wins and leads a spade. If you win, you cannot lead another club; so assume you play the J (better than the 5 to retain some flexibility) and partner overtakes with the ace to return a club, won by South. Declarer wins the Q and A-Q to reach this position:
| NT win 4 | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| A 6 5 | 8 S | K | 5 | 9 | 7 | ||
| 9 | 9 S | 3! | J | 8 | 10
| ||
| 10 8 | Declarer succeeds | ||||||
| Q 5 | | 6 3
| |||||
| J 9 7 | 10
| ||||||
| — | J 10 7
| ||||||
| J | —
| ||||||
| 8
| |||||||
| K 8
| |||||||
| K
| |||||||
| South leads | 7 3 | ||||||
On the K, you must pitch the 5 (you can’t unblock as South has the 8). Then it doesn’t take a black belt to realize you’re guarding hearts and have only the Q left; so declarer concedes a club. A diamond shift at trick two leads to a similar ending.
Second place must go to the 8 and Q, as another spade only helps declarer, and running the suit is like raising your chin to a flying foot. Even if partner has five spades, declarer cannot come to a ninth trick (you will discard a spade on the third diamond). The 8 gets the edge because it’s less revealing (voting agreed too), though I doubt it would matter against an expert.
Fourth place goes to the Q. While this doesn’t necessarily mean “running spades” (you can shift at trick three) popular intention was clearly to do so. Note that if South follows with the 8, you would next lead the J (partner may have five) but otherwise low (partner cannot have five because with A-8-7-x-x he would signal with the eight).
Worst is a close call between the J and 5, as each has a serious flaw. The J makes partner overtake with A-7-x (expecting K-Q-J-x-x) gifting declarer an amazing 10 tricks with 8-6-x-x K-x K-x-x A-K-x-x. The 5 fails when partner has five spades by blocking suit. The edge goes to the J, not only per the overwhelming vote but because it survives when partner has A-7-6.
I was generous with the awards, not only because this was a tough problem but to save my Academy from a torch job.
Comments for the 4Carsten Kofoed: [If partner has the 10], this destroys the threatening squeeze,…as I can develop a heart trick; then I can discard a winning (or strategic) spade. If South has 8-2 K-10-x K-x-x A-K-x-x-x, I’ll get kicked by partner if he has a temper.
N. Scott Cardell: … I need partner to have the 10, and no other defense works on any plausible distribution. … At first, it looked as if the Q followed by partner winning the next spade to return a club works when South is 3=3=3=4; but the spade blockage allows a strip squeeze to work when declarer still has three losers. …
Jerry Fink: Partner’s 7 promises the ace,…so four tricks are ours for the taking — after which I will be undone by a heart-club squeeze. In fact, I am a hair away from being Kwon Done by a triple squeeze right now. Only hope is to find partner with the 10, then repeated heart leads (after declarer’s spade leads) will just barely break the hold of the triple squeeze. I don’t worry about leading into declarer’s K-10-(x), as that only gives him the same nine tricks the squeeze will produce.
Perry Groot: Running four spades will give away the contract, as I will be squeezed in hearts and clubs on the third diamond. As I can only throw a spade safely, and declarer will play spades himself to cut communication, another winner has to be set up. This can only be done in hearts, so I’ll play partner for the 10 and lead hearts every time I win a trick in spades. This makes the 7 a winner, and the Q as a safe exit.
Rainer Herrmann: A nice exercise in squeeze defense.
John Lusky: Cashing out the spade suit will subject me to a club-heart squeeze. If I shift to a diamond or a club honor, declarer will play spades himself; and since he is marked with the 8, I will have insufficient transportation in spades to beat him (I will be squeezed out of my low spade, then declarer can give up a club). Only chance is to find partner with the 10 and keep pounding away at hearts when in with spades. If declarer has the 10, he still only makes nine tricks.
Lajos Linczmayer: East must have A-7-x-x; as with 8-x K-x-x K-x-x A-K-x-x-x, South would have raised hearts (I hope). If South has 8-x-x K-x-x K-x-x A-K-9-x, I must immediately switch to hearts to prevent the threatening heart-club squeeze.
Leif-Erik Stabell: Would South open one club and rebid 1 NT with 8-x K-x-x K-J-x-x A-K-x-x? Probably not, so I hope he is 3=3=3=4 (or similar) and partner has the 10.
Manuel Paulo: Consider these possible South hands: x-x-x K-8 K-x-x A-K-x-x-x, or x-x-x K-8-x K-x-x A-K-x-x. It is urgent to lead hearts, and continue whenever declarer leads a spade; otherwise, after some spade tricks, the third diamond squeezes my hand.
Claude Valiquette: The 7 is encouraging but denying the eight, which means I cannot hope for partner to take the lead twice in spades. … If four spades are cashed, the danger looming is a club-heart squeeze. Cashing only three spades won’t do, because South could then develop his ninth trick in clubs after cutting our communication with three rounds of diamonds. What is left is to destroy the heart entries needed for the squeeze…
Adrian Barna: East is marked with A, and declarer with all the other missing high cards, probably 3=3=3=4. After three or four rounds of spades, I will be squeezed on the third diamond — unless I find partner with the 10 and lead hearts from the top every time I gain the lead.
David Kenward: Declarer is probably 3=3=3=4; so a heart shift is needed to break up a club-heart squeeze, either with or without the count.
Steve White: Partner would play the eight from A-8-7-x, and he would not play the seven without the ace; so the only hope to avoid a club-heart squeeze is a heart shift.
Okan Ozcan: I don’t think partner has A-7-x-x-x, as South would bid 2 with 8-x K-x-x. South should have something like 8-x-x K-x-x K-J-x A-K-x-x; so I’ll be squeezed on the third diamond — unless partner has the 10 and I lead hearts three times. If declarer has K-10-x, I won’t give him an overtrick, as he still only has nine tricks.
Ding-Hwa Hsieh: South may hold 8-x-x K-8-x K-x-x A-K-x-x.
Dmitri Shabes: Seems partner holds the A, and declarer all other primary cards. To avoid the impending squeeze, I will assume partner has the 10 along with at least four spades, so I’ll start on hearts. Declarer wins and returns a spade; I win and continue the J; declarer wins…and leads his last spade; I win again and lead the 9. After establishing a good heart, I can afford to discard a spade on a third diamond.
Jonathan Mestel: Necessary if partner has four spades and the 10. I’m sure he’ll be sympathetic if South has x-x K-10-x K-10-x-x A-K-x-x and forgot to bid 2 .
Amiram Millet: South might have x-x-x K-x K-x-x A-K-x-x-x.
Debbie Cohen: Partner’s spade holding makes things tough for me. If he had the 8, I could shift to the Q, and he would later overtake a high spade to set up a club trick. In my usual crowd, the Q would work anyhow, as declarer wouldn’t lead two spades then cash three diamonds; but an expert would… That leaves playing partner for the 10 and leading a heart.
Richard Stein: Partner has the A, and we can take four spade tricks; but then a round-suit squeeze against me is as plain as day. I have to hope partner has the 10, so I can attack declarer’s heart entries. If I lose this trick to South’s 10, I would have lost the trick later anyway via the squeeze.
Toby Kenney: I’ll look stupid if partner has five spades, but this cuts communication and prevents my being squeezed if partner has A-7-x-x. (If declarer plays another spade, I’ll win and play the J.)
Thibault Wolf: Partner’s attitude signal shows the A and denies the 8 — important because I cannot throw top spades because of South’s 8-x-x. If we cash spades, I’ll be squeezed on the third diamond; so it is necessary to switch to hearts, hoping partner has the 10. If partner has A-7-6-4-3 and South has the 10, [I’m wrong], but that’s against the odds. (Same problem with partner playing the 8 would be interesting, too.)
Jim Munday: Based on the play to trick one, partner has the A, leaving declarer with K, K and A-K to have an opening bid (and any real chance). If I hastily take our spades, I will be subject to a heart-club squeeze. It seems counterintuitive to play a heart; but if declarer has the 10, I cannot succeed. Partner’s lack of the 8 will prove fatal to a [passive] defense. Attacking declarer’s communication in hearts enables the defense to prevail.
Tim DeLaney: The play to the first trick makes it clear that partner has the A; but if we cash spades, I will be subject to a heart-club squeeze. I must lead hearts every time declarer leads spades. Moreover, I must win the second spade (so the A guards South’s 8) and the third as well (partner probably has no third heart to lead).
Eugene Dille: Cashing four spades will eventually squeeze me when diamonds are played. I hope partner has the 10, and declarer will lose entries for a squeeze.
Jordi Sabate: East has A-7-x-x-(x) and South 8-x-(x). Declarer does not have nine quick tricks, so spades can wait. The problem will be a heart-club squeeze against me, declarer first trying to rectify the count in spades; in which case partner must have the 10, and I need to play hearts [at each opportunity] to ruin declarer’s plan. This is dangerous, as South might have 8-x and K-10-(x); but I think it’s the best option.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge | | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 3
| Matchpoints N-S Vul | K 7 6 K 10 7 2 J 9 5 Q 10 3
| You West 1 All Pass | Dummy North 2
| Partner EAST Pass 2
| Declarer South 1 4
| |
| Q J 9 8 4 8 3 K Q 10 9 8 7
|  | 4 South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead Q
| 2nd 6 | 3rd 2 | 4th 5 |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | 157 | 18 |
| 3 | 8 | 47 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | 248 | 28 |
| 4 | 5 | 28 | 3 |
| J | 4 | 314 | 35 |
| K | 2 | 101 | 11 |
Finally, an easy one? Partner obviously has the A* among three or four spades for his raise, so the textbook play is to continue with the jack in case South has 10-5. Such might be the case if you didn’t watch the spot cards, but partner contributed the 2. Apparently, he wants you to shift, and the 9 looks attractive in view of dummy.
*Not absolutely of course. Declarer could be playing a tricky game with A-5 A-Q-x-x-x-x A-x A-x-x to prepare an elimination for an overtrick, albeit unlikely if not far-fetched.
Look out! You almost got floored by a reverse dropkick. Think about partner’s play: If he held K-J-x-x, would he really want a club shift? Hardly. You happen to have nice club spots, but partner does not; a club shift could easily blow a trick (e.g., A-8-x South) so he would simply encourage spades. Then why did he play the 2? Because he has A-10-2, whence the 10 costs a trick if South has 9-8 doubleton, or more realistically a key entry as in this layout:
| Matchpoints | K 7 6 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| N-S Vul | K 10 7 2 | 1 W | Q | 6 | 2 | 5 | |
| J 9 5 | 2 W | J? | 7 | 10 | 3 | ||
| Q 10 3 | 3 W | 9 | K | A | 5
| ||
| Q J 9 8 4 | | A 10 2 | 4 S | A | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 3 | J 4 | 5 S | A | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| K Q 10 | 8 6 3 | 6 S | K | 8 | 10 | 4 | |
| 9 8 7 | J 6 5 4 2 | 7 S | 6 | 8 | K | J | |
| 5 3 | 8 N | Q | 5 | 2 | 9 | ||
| A Q 9 6 5 | 9 N | 7 | 6 | Q | 4
| ||
| A 7 4 2 | continued below… | ||||||
| 4 South | A K | ||||||
Suppose you continue with the J (ducked) and another spade (ruffed). Declarer will then win the A, A-K, K, Q, and return to hand with a heart to reach this ending:
| win 3 | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| 10 | 10 S | 4! | Q | 5 | 3 | ||
| J 9 5 | West is endplayed | ||||||
| —
| |||||||
| 8 | | —
| |||||
| — | —
| ||||||
| K Q 10 | 8 6 3
| ||||||
| — | J
| ||||||
| —
| |||||||
| 9
| |||||||
| A 7 4
| |||||||
| South leads | — | ||||||
Next comes a low diamond, and even Oddjob’s soaring hat couldn’t save you now. What you needed was a diamond lead from partner early on to break up the endplay, and he gave you that chance by preserving his 10. At trick two, you must lead a lower spade, more specifically the nine as suit preference for diamonds; then the 8 return relieves you of any danger.
Second place is a close call between a heart and a club. Either suffices if South is 2=5=3=3 (partner can shift to a diamond later). The 2 prevents an overtrick if South has x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K (a club allows declarer to strip the hand). The 9 achieves an extra undertrick if South has x-x A-Q-J-x-x-x A-x A-x-x (a heart allows declarer to endplay East). Defeating a contract one trick instead of two is surely a lesser evil than giving declarer 11 tricks for a top. Further, declarer arguably must play double-dummy to benefit from a heart lead in the second example. Therefore, the 2 gets second place, and the 9 a close third. Sorry voters, but you might have suspected that 9-8-7 was too good to be true.
Fourth place goes to the 4. In theory, this is the same as the 9, but the message it conveys invites disaster. With my example East hand, partner must return a club if South has 5-3 A-Q-x-x-x A-K-x-x A-x; else you will be thrown in with the third diamond to lead from the K. I suppose there’s some chance that partner will be asleep and return a diamond anyway, but don’t hold your breath.
Leading the J gets only fifth place, as it precludes any chance for a diamond shift — unless partner overtakes, which is ludicrous.
Last and clearly worst is the K. In martial-arts lingo this is Pav-Kwon-Donate, not only losing a diamond trick in my example but a spade as well. I suppose it’s possible that South stretched with 5 A-Q-J-x-x x-x-x A-K-J-x to apply pressure in competition, while partner bid like a wimp; so I’ll award it 2.
Comments for the 9Carsten Kofoed: I must get partner on lead to shift to a diamond, so I can’t be endplayed if South has x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x A-K-x…
N. Scott Cardell: … With A-3-2, partner would encourage with the three; and with A-10-3-2, he would play the 10; but with A-10-2, he would play the two because it may be essential for him to win the second spade. … If declarer has six trumps, my defense is unlikely to matter; but if he has a hand similar to 5-3 A-Q-J-9-6 A-8-2 A-K-5,…a spade to partner and a diamond return will get me off the looming endplay. I lead the 9 as suit preference for diamonds.
Jerry Fink: I need partner on lead for a diamond through declarer. If South was dealt 10-4, so be it — a strip and low diamond toward dummy’s J-9-5 was going to endplay me anyway. The rush to lead spades is the ominous threat of declarer holding A-K doubleton and chucking his second spade on the Q.
Perry Groot: The 2 looks discouraging. Did South duck with A-5? Of course not! Partner must have exactly A-10-2 for his carding; hence, I lead the 9 (diamond preference) to partner’s 10. He will return a diamond while I still have a safe exit; else declarer could strip everything and play a diamond toward the jack for a throw-in.
Rainer Herrmann: If the 2 is attitude, it can only be from A-10-2 (not A-3-2). … The 9 asks for a switch. Not continuing spades loses if South has five clubs, or 5-3 A-x-x-x-x A-x-x-x A-K.
John Lusky: I need to play a second spade in case South has something like x-x A-Q-J-x-x A A-J-x-x-x, or x-x A-J-x-x-x A-x-x-x A-K… I need partner to have A-10-2, and it looks like he does. The 9 tells him to come back a diamond, which breaks up the impending endplay.
Leif-Erik Stabell: The 2 must indicate that partner couldn’t afford a higher spade, which marks him with A-10-2. If South has 5-3 A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K, a spade to partner followed by a diamond switch should defeat the contract.
Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible East hand: A-10-2 x-x x-x-x-x x-x-x-x. After winning cheaply the second spade, partner switches to diamonds, as I suggested with the 9; else declarer wins with an elimination play.
Claude Valiquette: What does the 2 mean? Who has the 10? With A-3-2, partner would play the three. With A-10-2, partner cannot afford to encourage with the 10, [because] South might have 9-8 doubleton. It is pretty safe then to lead the 9 to invite a diamond return. It is necessary to help partner, as from his point of view I could have Q-10-x and K-x-x, in which case a club return is necessary to avoid the endplay if South is 2=5=4=2.
Snorri Karlsson: This asks for a diamond. It can only lose if South has 10-5,…but partner did not encourage, which suggests a holding of A-10-2.
Okan Ozcan: I think partner has A-10-2, so I play the 9 to ask for a diamond return.
Brad Theurer: Partner seems to be discouraging, but he should have A-10-2 and be retaining an entry. I will signal for a diamond return to break up a potential endplay. This also cashes a spade that goes away if South has x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K.
Dmitri Shabes: Partner’s play suggests he holds A-10-2, so I want to cross to the 10 and get a diamond back to avoid a throw-in later.
Jonathan Mestel: If I understand our signals, partner would not play the two from A-3-2; so I can safely [assume A-10-2] and ask for a diamond return, playing South for x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x A-K-x. If I switch, South may have x-x A-Q-J-x-x-x A-x-x A-K, and I’ll be endplayed for an overtrick.
Amiram Millet: To get a diamond back if South has 10-5 A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-J.
David Caprera: Damn, partner is good! He played low from A-10-2 to ensure an entry…and get me off the endplay.
Thijs Veugen: I must hope partner has the 10, and South something like x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x. Partner will switch to a diamond. Leading a second spade immediately is urgent if South has x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x-x A-K.
Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: I need partner to play a diamond, hence the 9 (Lavinthal); otherwise I will get endplayed when South has x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x. I hope partner has A-10 left.
Marco Catellani: Playing South for x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K, or similar.
Bruce Neill: Cashing a second spade may be urgent if declarer has x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K, and I can’t risk him ducking the J. I need partner to win the second spade and play a diamond through to prevent an endplay, hence the 9 as suit preference.
Richard Stein: Partner seems to have the A, but what is this deuce? Maybe he wants a switch; but maybe he has A-10-2 and couldn’t afford the 10 if my spades were Q-J-5-4-3 (South having 9-8). My 9 requests a diamond back…
Barry White: Playing for South to hold x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x. I must get partner in for a diamond lead, and the 9 suggests this. …
Sebastien Louveaux: A plausible South hand: x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x A-K-x. If I lead the [ J], declarer can strip my hand and play a diamond toward dummy. Thus, I need a diamond lead from partner; and his 2 suggests A-10-2, with which he did not waste the 10, in case South had 9-8 tight. Playing the 9 (as opposed to the 4) implies an interest for diamonds.
Dale Freeman: I will play partner for A-10-2, and hopefully he will switch to a diamond to get me out of a possible endplay.
Toby Kenney: If South has x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-K, we need to take our second spade now in partner’s hand, so he can return a diamond to prevent my being endplayed.
Paulino Correa: Partner has the A but probably no other useful honor, so 4 can be defeated only with two spades and two diamonds. South is likely to be 2=5=3=3, so I need to give the lead to partner for a diamond return; else I will be thrown in at the end with a diamond, and be forced to return a diamond or give a ruff-sluff. …
Martin Hirschman: If South has x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x, I need a diamond play from partner to avoid later endplay; the 9 is suit preference for diamonds. Hopefully partner brought the 10 for his crummy raise. I would like to go passive, but South might have A-K [doubleton].
Kauko Koistinen: To have any chance, we must win two spades and two diamonds. If I continue with the J, declarer will duck. Later he will draw trumps, eliminate black suits, and play a small diamond from his hand to endplay me. [Therefore], I continue with the 9, so partner can win and return a diamond. South might have x-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x A-K-x, or x-x A-Q-J-x-x-x A-x-x A-J.
Tong Xu: Partner’s 2 should be from A-10-2. He will know my 9 is suit preference and return a diamond, then I can avoid the endplay.
Jeff Goldsmith: Looks like partner has done the right thing with A-10-2. Since I [must] avoid winning trick two to have a chance, I’ll provide suit preference.
Paul Gosney: South may have 5-3 A-Q-J-9-6 A-8-7-6 A-K, and I obviously want a diamond back.
David Grainger: Declarer probably has x-x A-Q-x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x (or A-x-x-x A-K) and will endplay me if partner doesn’t shift to a diamond now. The 2 suggests partner is holding on to the 10 for an entry, not that declarer is holding up…
Julian Wightwick: Partner needs to win the 10, then switch to a diamond to prevent me from getting endplayed.
Bill Powell: Partner needs A-10-2 and must switch to a diamond a trick three. (He probably has this and couldn’t afford the 10 in case South held 9-8.)
Nigel Guthrie: Trying to avoid a diamond endplay if South has, say, 10-x A-Q-J-x-x A-x-x-x A-J.
Ruud von Seida: Hoping partner wins the 10 to play a diamond back.
Michael Bodell: Maybe partner has A-10-2… Leading the K could only be right if partner has the A, and South is 1=5=3=4 with A-K-x-x or A-J-x-x. …
Robert Birthisel: Suit preference for a diamond return.
Ozgur Deniz Aydin: I need partner to win the second spade and shift to a diamond, before declarer clears trumps, spades and clubs, then leads a low diamond toward dummy to endplay me.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge | | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 4
| Matchpoints None Vul | 10 5 2 10 5 4 A K 5 A 9 4 2
| You West Pass Pass All Pass | Dummy North 1 NT1 3
| Partner East Pass Pass | Declarer SOUTH 1 2 4
| |
| J 3 K Q 7 6 J 10 8 2 J 8 5
|  | 4 South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead K
| 2nd 5 | 3rd 3 | 4th 2 | 1. forcing (6-12) |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q | 10 | 107 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | 180 | 20 |
| J | 6 | 409 | 46 |
| 5 | 3 | 153 | 17 |
| 3 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| J | 1 | 30 | 3 |
First, a note about the bidding: One notrump forcing is a popular treatment, often used in conjunction with two-over-one game forcing. The maximum for 1 NT is extended to 12 HCP, and opener is required to bid again. Therefore, the 2 rebid is often only three cards. North’s jump to 3 shows a limit raise with three trumps, and South’s 4 shows a little extra, either in shape or high cards.
As on the previous problem, partner discourages your lead. Geez, what a deadbeat! You came for some serious action, and you’re facing a Pav-Kwon-Don’t. If partner doesn’t like hearts, he probably has the Q, so a diamond shift seems in order. Consider a likely layout:
| Matchpoints | 10 5 2 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| None Vul | 10 5 4 | 1 W | K | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| A K 5 | 2 W | 6? | 4 | J | A | ||
| A 9 4 2 | 3 S | A | 3 | 2 | 6 | ||
| J 3 | | Q 8 6 | 4 S | K | J | 5 | 8 |
| K Q 7 6 | J 8 3 | 5 S | 4 | 2 | A | 7 | |
| J 10 8 2 | Q 9 7 3 | 6 N | K | 3 | 6 | 8 | |
| J 8 5 | Q 6 3 | 7 N | 5 | Q | 4 | 10 | |
| A K 9 7 4 | continued below… | ||||||
| A 9 2
| |||||||
| 6 4
| |||||||
| 4 South | K 10 7 | ||||||
Put that diamond back! You must continue hearts, else declarer will establish dummy’s fourth club to dispose of his heart loser. Partner is marked for the J*, else declarer (with A-J-2) would have ensured a second heart trick by winning the A.
*Discouraging hearts was correct, because your lead could have been from A-K-9-x (Q-x-x South). Many experts avoid this ambiguity by leading ace from ace-king, but this contest presumes standard agreements as outlined in Standard American Bridge.
Suppose you lead the 6 to the jack and ace. Declarer draws two rounds of trumps and eliminates diamonds to reach this ending:
| win 4 | 10 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| 10 | 8 S | 9! | Q | 10 | 8 | ||
| — | West is endplayed | ||||||
| A 9 4 2
| |||||||
| — | | Q
| |||||
| Q 7 | 8
| ||||||
| J | 9
| ||||||
| J 8 5 | Q 6 3
| ||||||
| 9 7
| |||||||
| 9
| |||||||
| —
| |||||||
| South leads | K 10 7 | ||||||
Declarer now exits with a heart, and you are stuck. You must lead clubs into the dual tenace, else concede a ruff and discard, allowing declarer to make 4 .
The proper defense is to lead the Q* at Trick 2, preserving partner’s entry. If declarer attempts the same elimination, partner will win the third heart, cash the Q, and exit safely with a diamond. Down one.
*If you worried about partner holding J-3 doubleton, this is impossible on the auction, as South would have rebid 2 with four.
Second place goes to the 6, because the main priority is to establish a heart trick. If partner has J-9-3 (instead of J-8-3) or Q-10-x (instead of Q-x-x), declarer has no endplay threat, and routine defense will prevail.
Third place goes to the J, which is safe in itself but loses a crucial tempo. About the only time this would be effective is if South has A-K-Q-x-x A-3 x-x-x x-x-x, but then he would win the first trick.
Other leads not only lack benefit but may lose a trick outright. A spade might kill partner’s trump trick (e.g., K-x-x or Q-x-x), and a club might pickle his Q-x-x. Among them, a club seems the lesser evil, losing to fewer holdings. Between the J and 3, low is better, as partner should play his honor (unless holding the 9); then declarer might finesse on the second round to resurrect your jack.
Comments for the QCarsten Kofoed: Partner’s 3 could show J-x-x in this situation. [If I lead a low heart], I could be endplayed with the Q after a partial elimination. This way, partner will win the third heart and take the Q before exiting safely with a diamond.
N. Scott Cardell: Partner’s discouraging signal denies the A; but if declarer had the A-J, he would win the first trick,…so partner has the J. Breaking either black suit is likely to give away a trick with nothing to gain, so the only reasonable alternatives are the Q, 6 and J. … If South has four clubs, which red suit I lead is unlikely to matter. … The key South hand to consider is A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x (or spades headed by A-K-Q or A-Q). A diamond lead lets declarer set up dummy’s long club for a heart discard, and a low heart allows him to endplay me after winning two trumps and eliminating diamonds. This partial strip and endplay works if partner still holds a high trump, or [for an overtrick] if the 10 is high.
Jerry Fink: It’s about 27-to-1 that declarer has 5=3=2=3 distribution (versus 5=4=0=4, when the Q lead would crash partner’s ace). Leading a low heart could wind up with an endplay, forcing me to break clubs or give declarer a ruff and sluff.
Perry Groot: It looks like South has A-x-(x) given the bidding and play. A black card is easily rejected, as it costs a trick too often. A diamond is too passive, as declarer can set up a club for a heart discard. A small heart may lead to a throw-in (declarer strips diamonds, cashes A-K, and throws me in with a heart);…but the Q works because partner can win the third heart and exit safely in spades or diamonds.
Rainer Herrmann: South could have A-K-x-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x, in which case only the Q continuation defeats the contract. Against the 6, declarer can play a partial elimination. …
John Lusky: Partner appears to have J-x-x. I need to play the Q next to save myself from being endplayed after a partial elimination, if South has A-K-x-x-x A-x-x x-x K-10-x (or A-K-Q-x-x).
Lajos Linczmayer: South held up the A (partner discouraged), and partner has the J. I must continue hearts, else a heart loser could disappear on clubs; and I must lead the Q to avoid a throw-in, e.g., if South has A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x.
Leif-Erik Stabell: Would South bid like this with A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x? Maybe, although some would open 1 NT. Would partner play the 3 from J-8-3? Quite possibly with the 10 in dummy. In any case, the Q keeps most possibilities open and prevents me from being endplayed later.
No doubt you’re right that some would open 1 NT. I’ll remember this at the next Harare Nationals.
Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible South hand: A-K-x-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x. I lead another heart, else declarer will discard his loser on the last club; and I lead the queen to assure that partner can win the third heart after two rounds of trumps and a diamond ruff.
Claude Valiquette: What is happening in hearts? Partner probably has the J, but not knowing that I led from a K-Q combination, denies possession of the Q. South has ducked, intending to play on semi-elimination lines to force whoever wins the third heart to broach clubs… so I continue with the Q. (Hearts can’t wait when South is 5=3=2=3.)
Adrian Barna: If declarer is 5=3=2=3, it makes no sense to duck with A-J-x. There are several holdings for South when I must return a heart, e.g., A-K-x-x-x A-x-x x-x K-x-x, or A-K-Q-x-x A-x-x Q-x x-x-x; and the Q will make it easier for partner and avoid a throw-in if South has K-10-x.
David Kenward: If partner has something like K-x-x J-x-x Q-x-x-x Q-x-x, he needs to win the third heart to avoid an endplay.
Snorri Karlsson: If hearts are not continued, dummy’s fourth club may provide a discard; and it is necessary for partner to win the third heart. For example, if South has A-K-Q-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x, a low heart would enable declarer to draw two rounds of trumps, [ruff the third diamond], and endplay me.
Steve White: I want partner to win the third heart if South is 5=3=2=3.
Brad Theurer: Keeping off an endplay if South has, say, A-K-x-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x, and establishing a second heart trick that would go away on a passive diamond shift. Even if declarer has A-K-Q-x-x, he can cash only two spades, ruff out diamonds, and throw me in with a heart [for an overtrick] if I lead a low heart now.
Dmitri Shabes: Partner’s 3 is discouraging, yet declarer could have won the trick holding A-J-x; so partner has only the jack and did not want to encourage in case my lead was from A-K. …
Jonathan Mestel: Any [heart] will usually do; but maybe South has A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x, and I must avoid a partial elimination.
David Caprera: If declarer has A-J-x, I have just been Grosvenored; but I think [partner’s discouragement] is due to the ambiguity of leading king from A-K or K-Q. The question is who should win the third heart if declarer has A-K-x-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x and strips the hand. Answer: partner.
Thijs Veugen: The danger of the 6 is that I will be endplayed if South has A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x.
Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: If South holds A-Q-9-x-x A-x-x x-x K-10-x, I need to continue with the Q. Otherwise, declarer can play two rounds of spades, three rounds of diamonds, and throw me in with a heart.
Bruce Neill: Obvious to continue with a low heart, in case South has A-K-x-x-x A-x-x x-x K-10-x. Wait a minute! Far too obvious for a Pavlicek problem. :) I’d better play the Q to avoid an endplay later.
Barry White: This leaves partner with a heart entry, so he can lead a spade if a throw in and endplay is possible. South may hold A-K-9-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x.
Dale Freeman: I’ll play partner for J-x-x because of the heart duck. Declarer may have a partial elimination to force me to break clubs or give a ruff-sluff; but if partner wins the third heart, he will have a third trump to exit.
Andrew de Sosa: It looks like partner started with J-x-x-(x) and couldn’t encourage, since I might have led from A-K. I see no compelling reason to switch, so I’ll continue with the Q.
Kauko Koistinen: Declarer may have A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x. If I do not continue hearts, he will later discard his heart loser on dummy’s fourth club. If I continue with a small heart, partner has to play the jack; and after A-K and ruffing the third diamond, declarer plays his last heart to endplay me…
Tong Xu: It looks like partner has J-x-x, so I need to continue hearts; but if I lead the 6 and declarer has A-Q-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x, he can win two spades and [eliminate] diamonds, then endplay me with the third heart.
Gerald Cohen: The play to trick one suggests declarer has the A, and partner the J; but declarer does not have four hearts, so I can safely continue with the Q. …
Venkatesh Ramaratnam: Declarer should have the A, and partner the J, for the play to trick one. A material South hand for an active defense is A-K-x-x-x A-9-2 x-x K-10-x, in which case our heart trick must be set up before declarer can set up the 13th club. On a low heart shift, declarer will score the contract by cashing the top spades, ruffing a diamond, and throwing me in with the Q.
John Auld: This prevents a throw-in against me.
Imre Csiszar: The critical South hand is A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x (or A-Q-x-x-x). If I lead the 6, declarer can perform a partial elimination, then throw me in with a heart.
Peter Gill: To avoid being thrown in later, South having A-K-x-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x. Partner’s 3 and declarer’s duck mark partner with J-x-x.
Charles Blair: Playing South for A-K-9-x-x A-9-x x-x K-10-x.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge | | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 5
| Matchpoints Both Vul | 8 5 2 7 4 Q 10 5 2 A K J 3
| You WEST 1 Pass All Pass | Dummy North Pass 1 NT | Partner East Pass Pass | Declarer South Dbl 4
| |
| J 10 Q J A K J 6 3 Q 8 7 6
| | 4 South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead K
| 2nd 2 | 3rd 7 | 4th 4 |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q | 10 | 65 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | 210 | 23 |
| A | 7 | 191 | 21 |
| J | 5 | 311 | 35 |
| Q | 4 | 68 | 8 |
| J | 3 | 50 | 6 |
The auction strongly suggests that South is 4-6 in the majors. The leap to 4 surely requires six, and with a heart one-suiter he would not have doubled.* Therefore, odds are overwhelming that declarer has the singleton diamond rather than partner, in which case the friendly layout means you’re not beating this. At matchpoints, however, every trick counts.
*In balancing seat, there are no “weak jump overcalls,” so normal procedure with a one-suiter is to bid for one more trick than you can win in your hand. For example, if South could win eight tricks in hearts, he would jump to 3 .
The obvious defense is to shift to spades, but it’s like throwing marshmallows at a twirling black belt. Partner’s pass of 1 suggests the best you can hope for is K-x-x-x or Q-x-x-x, so developing a spade trick will be slow, and partner will have no entry to cash it. Further, a spade switch marks partner with a spade honor, so declarer will bank on the club finesse. Consider a likely layout:
| Matchpoints | 8 5 2 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| Both Vul | 7 4 | 1 W | K | 2 | 7 | 4 | |
| Q 10 5 2 | 2 W | J? | 2 | 7 | A | ||
| A K J 3 | 3 S | A | Q | 4 | 3 | ||
| J 10 | | Q 9 7 3 | 4 S | K | J | 7 | 8 |
| Q J | 10 8 3 | 5 S | 9 | 3 | 5 | 10 | |
| A K J 6 3 | 9 8 7 | 6 E | 3 | K | 10 | 8 | |
| Q 8 7 6 | 10 4 2 | 7 S | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8
| |
| A K 6 4 | 8 S | 5 | 6 | K | 2 | ||
| A K 9 6 5 2 | 9 N | 10 | 9 | 2 | J | ||
| 4 | continued below… | ||||||
| 4 South | 9 5 | ||||||
Suppose you shift to the J (or any heart). Declarer will clear trumps ( A-K and another), win the spade return, lead another heart, cross to the K, and ruff a diamond to reach this ending:
| win all | — | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| — | 10 S | 5 | ? | ||||
| Q | West is squeezed | ||||||
| A J 3
| |||||||
| — | | Q 9
| |||||
| — | —
| ||||||
| A | —
| ||||||
| Q 8 7 | 10 4
| ||||||
| 6 4
| |||||||
| 5
| |||||||
| —
| |||||||
| South leads | 9 | ||||||
On the 5, you might as well fold up your cards. Declarer knows you’re a big favorite to have the Q (and he needs the finesse anyway for a 10th trick) so he finishes with an overtrick.
It’s not like your being squeezed was any surprise. You saw the club menace when dummy came down, yet you wasted time leading a major. The proper defense is a club shift, then partner can continue the attack when he wins the 10. This kills dummy’s entry, and partner will get a spade trick in due time. Holding the contract to 10 tricks is likely to score 75 percent in a strong field.
But wait! Leading the 8 only works when partner has the 10, so it warrants only second place. The best lead is the club queen, which works even when South has 10-x (including 10-9) — or in the Pav-Kwon-Do women’s division, flip the lady on the canvas. Essentially, you must resign yourself to the club finesse.* Declarer knows you’re a big favorite to hold the Q, so he will always take the finesse, even if it risks the contract. Anyone who doesn’t will lose many matchpoints in the long run.
*If you led the 8 on the opening lead, declarer may believe the queen is offside; but in view of dummy, it means nothing. Declarer has much to gain by ducking if he held 10-x in the diagrammed layout. Even if it lost to the queen and a club came back, he would still succeed on the distribution shown.
Other leads fail to break up the minor-suit squeeze on typical layouts. Third place has to go to the A, as it could set the contract on a lucky day. (At IMPs the A is probably the winner.) Give declarer A-K-Q-x A-K-10-9-x-x 9-8-4 —, and he cannot avoid a spade loser after two diamonds and a ruff. Also observe that on layouts like the diagram, cashing the A is no worse than leading a major; setting up the Q costs nothing, since you’d be squeezed anyway.
The J gets fourth place. Besides being the popular choice, it does better than a trump, defeating the contract (as will a club) if South bid aggressively with A-9-x-x A-K-9-8-x-x 4 x-x, albeit remote, as few Easts would pass 1 with K-Q-x-x 10-x-x 9-8-7 10-x-x. If declarer ducks the J, however, you must switch to clubs, else declarer could duck a heart to you and squeeze you later.
Battling to stay out of the basement is which heart to lead. Any hope of deception is likely for naught, as declarer cannot benefit from a stiff honor with A-K-10-9-x-x, and he knows you wouldn’t lead from Q-x or J-x. Rather than pursue psychological tactics, the voters’ preference will prevail, or as my mother would remind me, honesty is the best policy — but then, she never made it past green belt.
Comments for the QCarsten Kofoed: This starts to break declarer’s communication when he has A-K-x-x A-K-9-x-x-x x 10-x, so he won’t make an overtrick.
N. Scott Cardell: … Partner’s 7 is almost certainly from 9-8-7,…so the choice is between a passive defense (major-suit return) or an active defense (club return). … The critical situation occurs when South has something like A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x 4 x-x, with partner holding the 10; a passive defense fails, as declarer will cash A-K and give partner his heart trick, [ending] with a minor-suit squeeze. On this auction, no expert would allow the 8 to talk him out of the club finesse, so I lead the Q in case South has 10-x. Also, I want to be sure partner returns a club when in with the 10. …
Jerry Fink: I read South for 4-6 in the majors on the bidding, and his minors will be 2-1 [far] more often than 3-0. I’ll try to break his communication with dummy (hoping partner has 10-x-x) before he can floor me with a minor-suit squeeze. (I would never try this at IMPs.)
Perry Groot: A second diamond will not cash. For a spade shift to work, partner needs K-Q which is unlikely. The J might work if declarer decides to cross and finesse into my hand. [More realistically], a club lead may break up a squeeze between the threatening minors in dummy; and in case South has 10-x, the Q is better than the eight. Hopefully, partner has 10-x-x, so he can play a second club to kill the squeeze.
Rainer Herrmann: South could have A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x 4 10-x.
John Lusky: South is probably 4=6=1=2. I need partner to have the 10, but not the 10, to hold declarer to 10 tricks. Partner will return another club when in with the 10 to break up the impending squeeze. (Declarer is unlikely to misguess the Q if I instead switch to the 8.) Holding 4 to four should be a useful score, since notrump will also make four.
Lajos Linczmayer: Partner has one diamond or three (more likely). If South has, say, A-K-x-x A-K-10-9-x-x 9-8-4 —, a diamond ruff beats the contract; but if he has A-K-x-x A-K-9-x-x-x 4 10-9, or A-K-x-x-x A-K-10-x-x-x 4 x, the Q destroys the squeeze.
Leif-Erik Stabell: Chances of defeating the contract are slim, considering partner’s pass and South’s strong bidding. Repeated club leads will prevent the overtrick if partner has Q-x-x-x 10-x-x 9-8-7 x-x-x, and also looks OK if partner is stronger.
Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible South hand: A-9-x-x A-K-9-x-x-x 4 10-x. With the club finesse declarer has nine tricks; but if I lead the 8 [or never lead clubs], he gets 10.
Adrian Barna: Killing the diamond-club squeeze if South has A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x 10-x (without the 10).
David Kenward: South is probably 4=6=1=2, so two rounds of clubs should stop a minor-suit squeeze for an overtrick.
Snorri Karlsson: To break communication for a squeeze; and I must lead the Q if South has 10-x.
Steve White: Trying to break up a club-diamond squeeze without risking South holding 10-x.
Okan Ozcan: Partner has 9-8-7, as South would not bid 4 with 9-8-4. If South has something like A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x x-x, a club lead and continuation (when partner wins the 10) will break the squeeze, holding declarer to 10 tricks for a good score. … I lead the Q in case South has 10-x (blocking the suit). …
Brad Theurer: I must break up the impending club-diamond squeeze. I hope partner has Q-x-x-x and 10-x-x, so he can win a trump and lead another club, breaking communication. I need to lead the Q in case declarer has 10-x, as he would let a low club ride to his 10 and not need the squeeze.
David Caprera: If South has A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x 10-x, I need to play the Q to kill the minor-suit squeeze. …
Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Cutting communication for a minor-suit squeeze, when South has A-9-x-x A-K-9-8-x-x x 10-x.
Bruce Neill: In case South has A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x 10-x.
Andrew de Sosa: Playing South for 4=6=1=2 distribution. I want to disrupt declarer’s communication to dummy to cut down on any squeeze chances. Leading the Q guards against declarer holding 10-x and scoring four club tricks if I led small.
Rob Wijman: Partner has 9-8-7. I’m not going to present declarer with four club tricks if he has 10-x.
Gerald Cohen: Given the bidding and play to trick one, long odds favor declarer having one diamond. One club pitch is unlikely to be helpful, but two might be; so I defend against a hand with two clubs. The Q is necessary in case declarer has 10-x and plays low on the 8 shift.
Robert Tamlyn: Hoping to tangle the club suit when South has 10-x. If we can get in [once more], we can remove the club-diamond squeeze.
Jim Munday: Declarer is extremely unlikely to have three diamonds on this auction; much more likely is something like A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x x-x. We need to play two rounds of clubs to break up the double squeeze.* In case declarer has 10-x, the Q is necessary to prevent four club tricks.
*Jim makes a good point. With West guarding diamonds, and East guarding spades, it makes no difference which defender stops clubs. While not actually a double squeeze (only one person can stop clubs), it plays like one. -RP
Audrey Kueh: We must lead clubs to avert a minor-suit squeeze. The Q caters for 10-x in declarer’s hand.
Mark Chen: We need to lead clubs at each opportunity to break up a squeeze, and the Q blocks the suit if South has something like A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x 10-x.
Jordi Sabate: In case South has 10-x and four spades. If I play a low club, he can win four club tricks. If I defend passively, I can be squeezed in the minors.
Gerald Murphy: … Maybe a high club is best; then another if [we regain the lead].
Peter Gill: South is an expert,…so he wouldn’t jump to 4 with three diamonds. Leading the Q (not low in case declarer has 10-x) might stop me from being squeezed later.
John Reardon: I expect South to hold A-K-x-x A-K-x-x-x-x x 10-x, so I switch to the Q to stop an overtrick. It is unlikely that South has three diamonds and no clubs.
| Analyses 8Y32 Main Challenge | | Scores Top The Art of Self-Defense |
Problem 6
| Matchpoints N-S Vul | Q J 8 J 8 6 5 3 5 Q 8 6 3
| You West Pass All Pass | Dummy NORTH Pass 2
| Partner East Pass Pass | Declarer South 1 4
| |
| K 10 7 A K 10 2 J 8 4 3 4 2
| | 4 South | ||||
| Trick 1 W | Lead K
| 2nd 3 | 3rd 4 | 4th 7 |
| Next Lead | Award | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 10 | 225 | 25 |
| 2 | 9 | 204 | 23 |
| 3 | 8 | 48 | 5 |
| K | 7 | 101 | 11 |
| A | 4 | 92 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | 225 | 25 |
A few months ago I was looking through some stacks of old hand records and came across the following deal from the 1986 Southeastern Regional Open Pairs. I was declarer in 4 after the auction shown above, and West led the K.
| Matchpoints | Q J 8 | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| N-S Vul | J 8 6 5 3 | 1 W | K | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| 5 | 2 W | 4 | 3 | 7 | J | ||
| Q 8 6 3 | 3 S | A | 3 | 5 | 2 | ||
| K 10 7 | | 3 2 | 4 S | K | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| A K 10 2 | Q 9 4 | 5 S | A | 2 | 8 | 9 | |
| J 8 4 3 | Q 9 6 2 | 6 S | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | |
| 4 2 | K 10 9 7 | 7 N | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| A 9 6 5 4 | 8 S | 10 | J | J | Q | ||
| 7 | 9 N | 6 | Q | 5 | 10 | ||
| A K 10 7 | continued below… | ||||||
| 4 South | A J 5 | ||||||
West shifted to the 4 at Trick 2, won by my jack. There wasn’t much to do but crossruff, so I cashed both top diamonds and the A, then alternately ruffed two diamonds and two hearts to reach this position:
| win 2 | Q | Trick | Lead | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| J 8 | 10 S | 5 | A | Q | K | ||
| — | 11 E | 2 | 6 | K | Q | ||
| Q | West is endplayed | ||||||
| K 10 7 | | 3 2
| |||||
| A | —
| ||||||
| — | —
| ||||||
| — | K 10
| ||||||
| A 9 6
| |||||||
| —
| |||||||
| —
| |||||||
| South leads | 5 | ||||||
On the club exit West pitched the A but could not avoid being endplayed in trumps.
Four spades can also be made by ruffing three diamonds (including a winner) then a fourth round of hearts.
Crossruffs are powerful when declarer can’t be overruffed. The only defense that might prevent it is a trump shift, but West was reluctant to do this because of his king; and indeed, a low spade would do no good. But wait! What if West shifts to the spade king. Now declarer’s diamond ruffs come at the expense of high trumps, and West’s 10-7 is worth two tricks in the end. Further analysis shows that declarer is completely stymied by this defense and cannot come to 10 tricks.
Wow! Talk about flying dropkicks! I wasn’t sure if the K would stand up under scrutiny, but I could not resist including this deal in my Pav-Kwon-Do theme. I would worry about analyzing other layouts when the time came.
Well, the time has come. Considering the myriad of possible South hands, this was not a problem that could be analyzed intuitively, or by calculating percentages — at least for me — so I ran a 1000-deal simulation. I defined the South hand as 5+ spades with a revalued point count of 19-22 (per my methods); and East less than 13. Further, I gave South 3+ diamonds and 2+ clubs, else East would have a 6+ card suit at least as good as Q-10-9-7-6-2 or K-J-10-9-7-5, with which he would almost always open 2 , 3 or 3 at the vulnerability.
Another issue had to be addressed: If East were 5-5 in the minors, he might have bid 2 NT (unusual) over 2 . Some would argue that he shouldn’t, because the revelation may help declarer in the play. I disagree. At favorable, the chance of locating a successful sacrifice surely outweighs that risk. (At equal vulnerability I think the issue is close.) Nonetheless, because it is controversial, I ran two tests: Simulation 1 allows East to be 5-5, and Simulation 2 does not. Results are tabulated below.
| Lead | Simulation 1 | Simulation 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3.34 | 399 | 3.33 | 401 |
| 2 | 3.29 | 385 | 3.26 | 371 |
| 3 | 3.19 | 319 | 3.17 | 311 |
| K | 3.02 | 296 | 3.04 | 310 |
| A | 2.92 | 197 | 2.87 | 169 |
| 7 | 2.84 | 146 | 2.82 | 130 |
Under each simulation, the first number (tinted) is the defensive trick average; next is the number of sets in 1000 deals. At matchpoints, trick average is more important than sets (vice versa at IMPs) though the ranking order holds true for all columns. Results are based on double-dummy play, which is not necessarily true for actual play but usually a good approximation. Examining some of the deals revealed an occasional bias, tending to overrate the 4 and underrate the K; but not enough in my judgment to change the order.
The most pronounced difference between simulations is for the A, which is obvious if you think about it. Allowing East to be 5-5 in the minors (Simulation 1) means that East could have a singleton heart; while in Simulation 2 it is impossible. For the same reason, the 2 is better in Simulation 1, but to a lesser degree.
C’est la vie. I wanted the K to win but couldn’t justify it. Instead of a flying dropkick, it’s like a cannonball dive in the Olympic 10-meter platform finals. Many respondents were also lured by this spectacle, often noting to the effect, “The K looks so weird it has to be right.” Evidently this is just another reminder that spectacular plays are often losing defense.
I’ve already spent too much time on this problem, so rather than rank the awards per my judgment, the simulation order will do just fine. The top four options are sound and maximized (awarded 10-9-8-7) while the last two are clearly inferior.
Comments for the 4Carsten Kofoed: If declarer held Q-9-7, he would drop the Q on my king. This, together with partner’s silence in the bidding, and the fact South didn’t try for 3 NT, makes me hope partner has the A. South might have A-x-x-x-x-x x A-K-x K-J-x.
N. Scott Cardell: … Only a club offers more chances to gain than lose. Even if declarer has A-9-6-4-3-2 7 A-9-2 A-K-10, he cannot benefit from the free finesse. Suppose declarer has a plausible hand like A-9-6-4-3-2 7 A-K-7 A-9-5; the best he can do is duck partner’s 10, forcing a switch; but [he must] lose two clubs, a heart and a spade. If instead I lead a diamond, he wins and leads a low trump, which I win (to prevent two diamonds ruffs on a different distribution) and exit safely with the 7. Declarer ruffs a heart, a diamond, and another heart to reach his hand to draw the last trump. This strip-squeezes partner, and an expert declarer rates to guess the ending right. … Leading the K is ridiculous…
Oh yeah? Give me a few days to perfect my cannonball and you’ll be scraping that 4 off the sides of the pool.
Lajos Linczmayer: I won’t play partner for a singleton heart (unlikely), so I suppose he has Q-4 or Q-9-4. … If South has A-9-x-x-x x-x A-K-x-x A-K, or A-9-x-x-x-x x-x A-x-x A-K, I must lead the 2. If South has A-9-x-x-x-x x A-K K-J-x-x, or A-9-x-x-x-x x A-K-x K-J-x, only the 4 [sets the contract]. … The 4 also [stops an overtrick] if South has A-9-x-x-x x A-K-x-x-x A-K (a heart helps a crossruff), or A-9-x-x-x-x x A-x-x A-K-x (a heart lets him establish hearts).
Adrian Barna: With such weak trumps, South should have a strong hand with long trumps and at most two hearts to justify his jump to game. …
Snorri Karlsson: Best chance to set the contract is to find partner with the A — or K-J and declarer winning the first round.
Bill Powell: Maybe declarer will try ruffing two diamonds.
George Klemic: Simple defense; I just ask partner to have K-J or better. Even A-J-10 is possible…
Tim DeLaney: South most likely has a stiff heart. The K is an elegant play,…necessary if South has A-9-x-x-x x A-K-x-x A-J-x,…but losing a trick in many other cases; so I choose the mundane.
Frans Buijsen: This can strike gold if partner has the A and ducks it once.
Ozgur Deniz Aydin: The best chance to defeat the contract is to find partner with a club trick and get a club ruff with my third trump. If partner has the A, he should know to take the second round. If he has K-J and declarer ducks the first round, partner can safely play a trump to prevent diamond ruffs.
Wei Victor Zhang: I hope partner has the A.
Comments for the 2John Lusky: It is tempting to shift to the K because of my spade spots, and the K will often be more effective than the 7; however, its effectiveness in relation to a non-spade depends on how many diamonds declarer needs to ruff. … Playing a club may help declarer in clubs and is unlikely to gain if declarer plays to best advantage. Playing a low heart, on balance, is at least as good as other plays when declarer has a singleton heart, and gains heavily against hands like A-9-x-x-x x-x A-K-x-x A-K, where it is necessary to take our second heart.
Claude Valiquette: It looks very much like Q-4 with partner, as with 9-4 he would play the nine, and a singleton does not seem to fit with the bidding. If so, I hope partner returns a spade, which should leave declarer a trick short if he is 5=2=4=2, because he is unable to ruff two diamonds in dummy.
David Kenward: The K is a cute way to stop diamond ruffs, but when partner has Q-4 it might be vital to take the two hearts immediately.
Barry White: It’s the end of a long session; I’m getting tired and can’t think of anything better. Besides, I have an excellent score going and I figure an average will be enough to win.
Rob Stevens: South has to have at least A-x-x-x-x x-x A-Q-x-x A-K, and I hope the trump lead has to come from partner’s side…
John Reardon: I hope South has A-x-x-x-x-x x-x A-x-x A-K. Partner will switch to a spade after winning the Q.
Comments for the 3Perry Groot: … I could play a heart, [hoping] partner has Q-4, for a spade return; however, the singleton diamond is not a threat. If declarer ruffs two diamonds, my K-10-7 will take two tricks. Therefore, a diamond shift seems better. If partner’s diamonds are strong enough, we can force dummy to ruff…
Rainer Herrmann: I do not think partner has a singleton heart, because South probably would play the Q in this case. More likely, partner has Q-4. With A-x-x-x-x 9-7 A-x-x A-K-x, declarer has three entries to establish the fifth heart; and forcing dummy is the only defense that works. However, in the less likely case of A-x-x-x-x 9-7 A-x-x-x A-K, only a diamond lets declarer make.
Comments for the KLeif-Erik Stabell: Spectacular success if South has A-9-x-x-x 7 A-10-x-x-x A-K, or similar. A diamond is necessary against A-9-x-x-x 9-7 A-10-x A-K-x, but wouldn’t this be…just worth a game invitation? Against other more likely distributions, a diamond switch would be a disaster.
Manuel Paulo: Consider this possible East hand: x-x Q-9-7 Q-9-x-x K-10-9-x. My gambit aims to win two diamond tricks; if declarer still ruffs in dummy, my low trumps are promoted…
Brad Theurer: Looks like a crossruff hand. If declarer ruffs two diamonds in dummy, my 10-7 will become two tricks…
Jonathan Mestel: Unlikely to cost and often good, e.g., A-9-x-x-x-x x A-10-9-x A-J.
David Caprera: I hope it is declarer and not partner who wins this trick, but I might make it into the Times either way.
Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: If South has A-9-x-x-x-x x A-x-x-x A-J, I need to prevent three ruffs in dummy. …
Bruce Neill: Minimizing ruffs. South may have A-9-x-x-x x A-K-x-x A-J-x.
Andrew de Sosa: It looks like declarer will need to ruff a diamond in dummy. Leading the K nets a trump trick for each diamond declarer ruffs.
Kauko Koistinen: I’ll play South for A-9-x-x-x x A-K-x-x A-J-x. If I lead a small spade, declarer will ruff two diamonds and lose three tricks (spade, heart and club); but the K forces declarer to lose two trump tricks if he ruffs two diamonds.
Paul Gosney: This looks so spectacular, it has to be right — not that I would ordinarily associate self-sacrifice with self-defense.
David Grainger: A club could be right when partner has a club trick;…but this seems to work most often when declarer needs to ruff diamonds.
Venkatesh Ramaratnam: Declarer is more likely than partner to be short in hearts. Declarer needs to ruff diamonds in dummy and this trick will surely come back (one ruff in dummy), more often with interest (two ruffs).
Imre Csiszar: In [many] cases when South has a singleton heart and five spades, this is necessary to prevent a crossruff. It’s hard to compare the K with pedestrian [leads], so I am only guessing that it wins more often.
Zoran Bohacek: Risky business. This wins on [many] layouts but could be the only card to let declarer make…
Dean Pokorny: It is vital to prevent a crossruff when South has A-9-x-x-x x A-Q-x-x A-J-x. Playing the K instead of a small one develops two trump tricks and prevents a throw-in against partner.
Roger Morton: I’ll draw some trumps and try to scupper the impending crossruff. This sacrifice may return tricks with interest.
Peter Gill: Do I have to be Italian to find plays like this? If so, I might replace my daily Pav-Kwon-Do exercise by an Arte Marziale such as Nova Scrimia.
Barry Rigal: … At least I’ll get my face in the Hall of Shame when this is wrong.
John S. Robson: OK, so I’m looking for a top! Apologies to partner when he has the wrong diamond holding.
Final NotesI hope you enjoyed the contest, or at least didn’t break any chairs in the process. The idea for this silliness was inspired by The Karate Kid (1984) which piqued my son’s interest in karate at the time. (Rich was considerate in not breaking any chairs, though I recall he took out a few lamps.) Thanks to all who participated, and especially those who offered kind remarks.
Comments are selected only from those scoring 44 or higher (top 212) in this contest or in the prior Overall Top 100 and above average here. For each problem, I included only comments that support the winning line — except Problem 6, a nutcracker that deserved more viewpoints. This might seem biased, but I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are off base. Of the eligible comments, I included about 80 percent. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.
Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly, except for corrections in spelling and grammar. If I use only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) shows where text was cut. In some cases I have inserted text [in brackets] to supply an omitted word or phrase, or to summarize a cut portion. Comments appear in the order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing.
I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems (combined with the input of comments) has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.
Well, it’s time for me to wax off, so these P-K-D dropouts can wax on:
J. Larry Miles: Pav-Kwon-Do should use propkicks, not dropkicks.
Jyrki Lahtonen: The building looks like a cover for a secret Pav-lovian experiment by the CIA. Did I become a guinea pig by participating?
Rob Wijman: This contest was more like Pav-Don’t-Know to me.
Anthony Golding: Somebody defend me from my own defense!
Barry White: I also have a black belt — and a brown belt, although I only wear one of them at a time.
Susan Richardson: I actually live in Canada, but your site wouldn’t accept it, so I lied with Costa Rica.
Close enough! Choosing British Columbia might have dispelled the “Great White North” image of the McKenzie brothers.
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© 2007 Richard Pavlicek