Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Par for the Course

Scores  by Richard Pavlicek

These six play problems were published on the Internet in June 2005 as a contest open to all bridge players. As declarer on each problem, all you had to do was choose your line of play from the choices offered.

Problem 1

2

3

4

5

6

Final Notes

Well, so much for our United States Open. New Zealand wins at Pinehurst, and Germany wins at Pavhurst. Go figure. Can this be attributed to a lack of sand saves, or too many phantom saves? I really thought Tiger Woods was going to pull it out at the wire, and he would have against most competitors. Michael Campbell was just too inspired — and too good. No doubt we will be hearing more of his name, and I don’t mean in soup commercials.

Hey! I got to see Bob Costas again, as he took time off of his busy Olympics schedule to show up in Pinehurst. I like this guy, as he seems at ease with everyone he talks to — kind of like Regis Philbin in talk shows (or game shows in the “Millionaire” days). I wonder if Costas plays bridge. Probably not, as he wouldn’t have time. He’s probably headed for Jamaica right now to interview a bobsled team.

Sports are great, and it’s always sad to see a major event end. Whether you’re a player or a spectator, the highs and lows are exhilarating. Even so, what’s important in life is to keep things in perspective. To wit:

Michael Campbell: I have no idea how much I won today. No idea. I don’t really care right now. All I care about now is this little puppy right next to me.

Rainer Herrmann Wins!

This contest had 966 entrants from 115 locations, and the average score was 39.60. Congratulations to Rainer Herrmann (Germany) who was the first of three to submit perfect scores. Hmm… Herrmann would be “Mr. Man” if I recall my Deutschland days. Is that macho, or what? Rainer has participated since day one (27 of 29 contests) and is a top contender (now third overall). Also scoring 60 were Jim Munday (California) and Alex Perlin (Russia). Close behind at 59 were Lajos Linczmayer (Hungary), Bruce Neill (Australia), and Xiongwen Gu (China).

Participation this month was up slightly from the April contest but well below the high of 1153 in February 2005. Strange, the shortest month claims the highest turnout — and it isn’t even a leap year. Fair warning: If you don’t set a new mark in August, I’m bringing back Fritz. (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, consider yourself blessed.) The average score (39.60) was better than usual (12th highest) and 489 persons managed to exceed that (40 or higher) to make the listing. From my perspective, analyses were easier this month, as the winning lines were generally clear-cut (only two 9 awards) as compared to some photo finishes in the past that required deep analysis and/or subjective conclusions.

In the overall standings, Lajos Linczmayer (Hungary) held on to the top spot with a 58.75 average. Next in line with 58.25 are Charles Blair (Illinois), Rainer Herrmann (Germany) and Jim Munday (California). Just a notch back at 58.00 are Bruce Neill (Australia), John Reardon (England) and Rob Stevens (California).

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and your opponents use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each problem offered six plausible lines of play (A-F). The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which is also aided by comments received.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 1 — Par 4

IMPs None Vul	Q 9 3 2 Q A Q J 10 5 2 A 5		West 2 All Pass	NORTH 1 3	East Pass 4	South 1 4
Lead: K		East plays 7
4 South	K J 10 8 10 4 2 K 7 J 9 3 2

West continues with the A.

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Ruff; win J; ruff heart	10	263	27
A. Ruff; win J; lead 10	9	450	47
F. Pitch a club	6	156	16
C. Ruff; win J; run diamonds	4	41	4
E. Ruff; run diamonds	3	4	0
D. Ruff; win K; ruff heart	1	52	5

Could you drive the green on a 401-yard hole? Hardly, but it looks like West is letting you take out your putter after that friendly heart continuation; 11 tricks look about as easy as a one-foot putt. Not in the U.S. Open! Birdies are too hard to come by, so the actual defense forebodes bad news in the trump suit. Consider this layout:

IMPs	Q 9 3 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	Q		1 W	K	Q	7	2
	A Q J 10 5 2		2 W	A	2	3	4
	A 5		3 N	3	4	J	6
6		A 7 5 4	4 S	10?	5	9	5
A K 9 8 5		J 7 6 3	Declarer fails
9 8 6 3		4
K 10 8		Q 7 6 4
	K J 10 8
	10 4 2
	K 7
4 South	J 9 3 2

After ruffing the second heart, suppose you cross to the J and lead the 10 (Line A); East will duck again. Now what? If you lead a third trump, East will win and cash a heart; then you will be tapped with the next heart. If you run diamonds, East will ruff the second, extract dummy’s last trump, and cash a heart. Either way you lose four tricks and go down. If instead you ruff the third heart, you will have to return to hand with the K, and you’ll be set at least two.

Running diamonds after winning the J (Line C) or immediately (Line E) doesn’t help either, as East will score a ruff; then a club shift will establish a club trick before the A is dislodged.

What about a club pitch instead of ruffing (Line F)? No, this does nothing to preserve trump control, as a third heart will force dummy anyway. East will then hold up his A twice, and you will be fatally tapped or suffer a diamond ruff.

The proper play is to ruff your last heart after winning the J (Line B); then lead dummy’s last trump (overtake if East ducks) and drive out the A. East must lead his last heart to tap you (else you win the rest) as you pitch a club from dummy. Finally, just run diamonds, and East can ruff whenever he wishes, leaving dummy high.

What if West holds four spades instead of East? In that case, you’re almost surely doomed, as the presence of the fifth heart with the long trump is insurmountable.*

*Unless West also has three diamonds (4=5=3=1); but this is a long shot, and contraindicated by East’s middle (or high) heart at trick one (holding six clubs with at least one honor, he is likely to play a low heart as suit preference).

A close second goes to the popular choice to continue trumps (Line A). While this fails in the diagram, it gains versus Line B in the uncommon case that West is 4=5=3=1. Thus, the net loss is small.

A distant third goes to pitching a club (Line F). This may seem like an ultra safety play, but it really only increases the risk. For example, you might now be defeated by a 4-1 diamond break when trumps were 3-2 all along.

Worse yet is Line C (win J, run diamonds), as you might fail against 3-2 breaks in both spades and diamonds if West ruffs the third diamond and shifts to a club. The similar Line E adds more risk by not leading any trumps. Worst by far is Line D, which not only shortens dummy’s trumps but kills your hand entry; opponents can then win the second trump and shift to a club to defeat you on almost any layout.

This problem is derived from Problem 3 of my “Let Your Heart Be Light” defensive-play contest, which showed how a similar contract is defeated by leading a singleton in dummy’s long suit at trick two. And so it could be defeated here as well, but a diamond shift was difficult if not impossible. East tried by playing the 7 (wasting the J seems implausible), but West reasonably interpreted it as middle, requesting a continuation.

Comments for B. Ruff; win J; ruff heart

Rainer Herrmann: This wins whenever East has between two and four spades. Just continue trumps and accept the heart force.

Jim Munday: An adverse trump split is the big concern, and quite likely given the heart continuation. I can survive if the length is with East. [I will next lead] a spade to hand to drive out the ace, then East must play a fourth heart (if he has one) to prevent me from winning the rest. I will ruff and lead my last trump (if any) then run diamonds. East can ruff but will not have a heart to cash, and I will have the rest.

Lajos Linczmayer: I suppose East a singleton (with four hearts). If a singleton spade, I need a singleton club with West to make the contract. I think it’s better to assume East has a singleton diamond, e.g., A-x-x-x J-7-5-4 x Q-x-x-x, and West did not find the killing diamond switch at trick two.

Bruce Neill: Danger is if spades don’t break. I can’t cope if West has four spades. If East has four spades — perhaps A-x-x-x x-x-x-x x x-x-x-x — he runs out of winners if he makes me ruff the fourth heart.

John Reardon: Then continue trumps; no problem if trumps are 3-2 or if East has four.

Dmitri Shabes: Choices C through F are eliminated easily. Lines A and B are both OK if trumps are 3-2. If West has A-x-x-x, nothing can be done unless he is short in clubs, in which case Line A gains. If East has A-x-x-x, [only] Line B succeeds against a singleton diamond (although the defense could have prevailed by leading a diamond at trick two). Four trumps and a singleton diamond in East is more likely than four trumps and a singleton club in West.

Tim DeLaney: If East has A-x-x-x-x J-x-x-x x-x Q-x, it is necessary to pitch a club, then play diamonds without touching trumps. But it is far more likely that East has something like A-x-x-x J-10-x-x x Q-x-x-x, so the mundane line of ruffing a heart and playing trumps is best.

Manuel Paulo: Ruffing the last heart before drawing trumps looks fine and is necessary if West has a hand like x A-K-x-x-x x-x-x-x K-Q-x. However, the expert West lost an opportunity to set the contract with a diamond switch at trick two.

Rob Stevens: If West has four spades, I am down. If East has four spades,…I can make, provided I take the heart ruff early.

Weidong Yang: If trumps split 4-1, I may lose trump control; but thanks to the A, I can still take the reins and have a bridge to dummy. First I will get rid of the heart loser.

Imre Csiszar: This wins over Line A if East has four spades and a singleton diamond. Line A wins if West has four spades and a singleton club. The former appears more likely.

Jonathan Mestel: East will run out of hearts if he has, say, A-x-x-x x-x-x-x x 10-x-x-x. If I throw a club, West may switch to diamonds.

Julian Wightwick: … After the heart ruff, I’ll try to draw trumps; I may lose control but still enjoy the diamonds. …

Mauri Saastamoinen: After a second heart ruff, it is time to play more trumps. Even if East has A-x-x-x x-x-x-x x Q-x-x-x, he cannot prevent me from taking 10 tricks.

Subhransu Patnaik: If spades are 3-2, there is no serious danger. If East has four spades and a singleton diamond, it is important not to play diamonds before forcing out the A (else East could play a club and kill dummy). If East shortens me with a fourth heart (promoting a trump winner), he will be out of hearts and unable to win another side trick. …

Frans Buijsen: I can afford to lose two spades, as long as I keep two entries in dummy so that I can always run diamonds.

Neelotpal Sahai: Handling a 3-2 spade break is easy. Even a 4-1 spade break can be handled if East has four, since he is [known] to have four or fewer hearts. …

Bill Powell: I can guard against a 4-1 trump break when the hand with four trumps has only four hearts.

Alex Cameron: Next pull trumps [as many as I can] then run diamonds.

Joshua Donn: After ruffing my last heart, I will knock out the A. Even if East has four spades, he is welcome to tap me with another heart to give himself the long trump, as he will be out of hearts when he ruffs, and dummy has the A entry to the [remaining] diamonds. This looks similar to Line D, but if I waste the K entry to my hand, East can kill the diamonds by knocking out the A after dummy is out of trumps.

John Lusky: This works if East has A-x-x-x, even if diamonds are 4-1.

Peter Breuer: If spades break no worse than 4-1, I can draw two more trumps and run diamonds. Note: If West discards on the J, I cannot afford to ruff a third heart. [Hoping] that East is 5=3=3=2, I play three rounds of diamonds…

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Even if East has four spades, four hearts and one diamond, I will make. After the heart ruff, I play trumps; East can take the ace and shorten my trumps, but I just run diamonds and lose only one more trump. …

David Shelton: I need to keep the K to enter my hand and pull trump.

Malcolm Lunn: Even on a 4-1 trump break, there appear to be 10 tricks. After ruffing my last heart in dummy, I extract trumps…

Paulino Correa: [Guarding against] the possibility of a 4-1 trump distribution.

Jeffrey Turner: Then play two more rounds of trumps and run diamonds. Even if [East has a trump remaining], after he ruffs, dummy has the A entry to the remaining diamonds.

Ludek Ambroz: And then spades. If East has four spades and returns a heart (best), I ruff and cash my last spade (leaving East with one spade) and play diamonds. When East ruffs, he has no heart.

Alan Kravetz: After ruffing the heart, draw trumps.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 2 — Par 4 ×

IMPs N-S Vul	7 6 4 3 J 10 5 4 2 A K 4 2		West 2 Pass	North 3 Pass	EAST 1 NT 3 Dbl	South 2 4 All Pass
Lead: Q		East wins K
4 × South	8 K Q 7 6 4 2 A Q 9 6 5 3

East continues with the A.

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Ruff; win A-K	10	83	9
E. Ruff; duck a club	9	122	13
C. Ruff; win J; A-K	7	39	4
A. Ruff; win J; lead 10	5	371	38
B. Ruff; win J; finesse Q	4	330	34
F. Pitch a club	2	21	2

There is nothing shy about your bidding, as you swing away on this long Par 4. Fortunately, you caught an excellent dummy with two heart honors and matching club strength; so with the diamond finesse marked, you’re in great shape.

With normal breaks (3-2 hearts and clubs) 10 tricks will be easy (five hearts, two diamonds and three clubs), but East’s double suggests a 4-1 trump break. Surely, East must have a surprise in store to double 4  holding A-K (dubious defense); i.e., most experts would go quietly holding A-K-x A-x-x K-J-x-x Q-x-x, having already told their story. This is further evidenced by East’s eagerness to tap you, so a layout like the following is predictable:

IMPs	7 6 4 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	J 10		1 W	Q	3	K	8
	5 4 2		2 E	A	2	2	4
	A K 4 2		3 S	4?	5	10	A
Q J 10 5 2		A K 9	4 E	9	6	5	6
5		A 9 8 3	5 S	7	10	J	3
10 9 7 6		K J 8 3	6 N	2	3	Q	7
J 10 8		Q 7	7 S	K	6	4	8
	8		8 S	Q	9	7	9
	K Q 7 6 4 2		Declarer fails
	A Q
4 × South	9 6 5 3

Suppose you ruff the second spade and take the straightforward course of drawing trumps (Line A). East will win the A and tap you again with a third spade. Now you must exhaust all your trumps to draw East’s trumps, so you will have to establish your long club without letting West on lead. Alas, this is impossible with best defense (East unblocks the queen if you cash the A), so you will fail.

Instead, you must establish clubs before drawing trumps to knock out West’s entry first. After ruffing the second spade, suppose you duck a club immediately (Line E). The defense will tap you again, but now you’re in control; just lead trumps, using A-Q (with a finesse) as reentries to your hand to cope no matter when East chooses to take his A.

Line E is good but slightly defective in the rare event trumps are 3-2 and West has a doubleton club — a club return allows West to get a ruff. Better is to clear clubs immediately (Line D), provided you are careful to unblock* so the 4 in dummy will be a late entry for the diamond finesse (if necessary by East’s defense). This line will always succeed when clubs are 3-2, which is almost assured since West would lead a singleton club if he had one.

*No doubt some people chose Line D without realizing the need to unblock, but everyone’s entitled to get lucky sometimes. I could hardly elaborate the precise plays in a contest, else everybody would get it right. The answer would stand out like Tiger Woods with a munchkin quartet.

Care must be taken in drawing trumps. After giving up a club (Line D) and being tapped again, you will lead a heart to the jack. If East ducks (best), you must continue hearts. If West then wins and returns a heart, the late club entry allows the diamond finesse. If West ducks twice, you will take the diamond finesse immediately and force out the A, then your A allows you to draw East’s last trump. It would be fatal to take the diamond finesse after winning the first heart, as East will duck the second trump; then you must use the A to return to hand, allowing East to tap you in diamonds.

Third place goes to Line C, which works just as well as the winning line if you get there.* Alas, East should never allow it to happen by grabbing the first heart, so he can tap you again while West still has a club entry.

*As usual in my play contests, selecting a listed line does not mean the defense must follow along as stated. You are always liable to any potential switch (or in this case, not holding up the A) that might occur along the way.

Lines A and B are equivalent as far as I could see, and ranked by the voting. Neither deserves more than a distant fourth, as choosing either is to reject the assured continuation of Line C — effectively missing two bites at the same apple.

Worst of all is to pitch a club (Line F). No matter how hearts break, this can never succeed against accurate defense (club shift). If East leads a third spade, however, West will be squeezed in the black suits in my example. Sorry, no mulligan for a faulty squeeze plan. Besides, why pick on West? You should be taking your practice swings against East for his insulting double.

Comments for D. Ruff; win A-K

Rainer Herrmann: The club trick must be lost first should West hold three clubs. The 4 is a late entry for the diamond finesse should East take the second round of hearts.

Jim Munday: I need both the diamond finesse and 3-2 clubs. East certainly has A-9-x-x for his double; hopefully he does not have A-9-8-x-x. I need to be wary of a tap and take out West’s conceivable entry before tackling trumps. Three rounds of clubs will leave me well placed if they split (I will retain the 3 as an entry to dummy). Assuming a third spade is led, I will ruff and play trumps. No matter what East does, I can pull his trump, using the club entry to take a late diamond finesse if needed. …

John Reardon: In case East has A-K-x A-x-x-x K-J-x-x x-x, I must establish my 10th trick in clubs before I am forced too often. I will preserve my 3 in case I need a late entry to North to take the diamond finesse.

Dmitri Shabes: I need trumps no worse than 4-1, clubs 3-2 and the K onside; and with these conditions, only Line D always succeeds. I will continue with a third round of clubs, preserving the 3 and 4. Choices A-C fail in the same way if East has four trumps and two clubs — he will not duck the J but win and continue spades. Line E fails if trumps were 3-2 all along and East holds three clubs. Line F is hopeless, as I can’t squeeze West if East switches to a club and leads another after winning the A.

Tim DeLaney: On this difficult Par 4, club selection is important. I next give up a club, keeping the 4 in dummy and the 3 in hand, so I can enter dummy later for the diamond finesse. This way, I can cope if East has A-K-x A-9-x-x K-J-x-x J-7 or similar.

Manuel Paulo: Consider a likely East hand: A-K-x A-x-x-x K-J-x-x 8-7. There is no sense in pitching a club, so I ruff. Drawing trumps is harmful if trumps break 4-1 and I later lose a club to West. Ducking a club is dangerous if trumps break 3-2. Thus, I cash the club honors and lead the 2, being careful to keep the 3 in hand.

Rob Stevens: East has the A, so I want to knock out the putative late entry to the spades lest hearts go 4-1. I must unblock in clubs, or East can arrange to strand me in the wrong hand. Any extra credit for that?

No, but you made me look up “putative” because I taut I taw a puddie tat.

Weidong Yang: I will keep the 3 as a late entry to finesse diamonds.

Chuck Lamprey: Then a third club, keeping the 3 opposite the 4.

Nigel Guthrie: Granny says, “Side suit first.”

Dale Freeman: Knocking out West’s entry first, if he has one.

Imre Csiszar: Assuming the diamond finesse is on, this and the 2 next (keeping the 3 in hand) guarantees the contract. If I try Line C, the J will not be allowed to win, then another spade will force me to lose control if a club is lost to West.

Barry Rigal: West’s only entry could be the third club. If East is 3=4=4=2, I might need to do this.

Julian Wightwick: East’s most likely shape is 3=4=4=2. I will need the long club, and I need to set it up early to prevent West from enjoying spades when I am out of trumps. Ducking a club is similar but would look silly if East is 3=3=4=3.

Subhransu Patnaik: I am in danger of getting shortened if trumps break 4-1. West must be given his [potential] entry now rather than later (East must have the A). … Care should be taken to [unblock] in clubs, leaving the 3 opposite the 4, as a late entry to take the diamond finesse. Ducking a club initially runs the danger of a club ruff if trumps are 3-2.

Eugene Dille: I need to knock out West’s entry if he has the third club. Also, I will make sure to hold on to the 3.

Amnon Harel: I need the likely diamond finesse and club break, so assume so. Opponents may shorten me three times (now, after the A and after losing a club), so a 4-1 trump break is a problem. East probably has A-K-x and the A, so I need to dislodge the club entry first; then West can’t shorten me when in with the A.

Jerry Fink: Hold on to that 3 like a limpet!

Bill Powell: Then the 2, unblocking the five, six and nine. This may prevent a force when West is 5=1=4=3.

David Grainger: Then give up a club. I have to knock out West’s potential entry before the A, as he is very likely to be 5=1=4=3. …

Barry White: Then a third club, retaining an entry to dummy with the 4. An immediate trump lead could be won by East, then another [force] could make it difficult to score the long club. East may have A-K-x A-x-x-x K-J-x-x J-x. I like my chances for a birdie here.

Marek Malowidzki: Hearts should be played when East has no more spades; thus, I need to lose to the Q first.

Joshua Donn: Obviously spades are 5-3, and hearts are 1-4. If West were 5=1=6=1, he would have bid his (cold) 4  contract, so clubs are 3-2. The danger is that after trumps are drawn, I will be fresh out due to spade taps; and if West has J-10-8, I won’t be able to keep him and his good spades off lead against best defense. The simplest way to avoid this is to play off A-K and give up a club now. Even if I get tapped after this, East will be out of spades when he [wins the A].

John Lusky: If trumps are 4-1, losing a late club trick to West will cause me to be tapped out, so I must lose a club trick early. I will retain the 3, as on some lines I will use the 4 as a late entry to take the diamond finesse.

Toby Kenney: Then concede a club. Now East won’t be able to force me again when in with the A.

David Wiltshire: The contract needs clubs to be 3-2. The danger is that trumps are 4-1 and that East will play a third spade when in with the A; then if West holds the club stopper, I will go down. This is…avoided by playing clubs before hearts.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: It is important to give up a club first in case West has three clubs; then I ruff the spade return and play hearts. … Although East’s double will usually be based on four trumps, he might have only three (maybe A-K-x A-x-x K-J-x-x Q-10-x) so he could give West a club ruff if I followed Line E. … With Lines A-C, East could take the A directly and tap me in spades, then I may have to give up a club to West when everybody is out of trumps…

Michael Kammermeier: I must not let myself be forced [more than twice]. After giving up a club, I will play on hearts, then the diamond hook will come later — either as necessary or by crossing to the 4 with my preserved 3.

Samuel Krikler: Clubs must be established before trumps are drawn to [overcome] spade taps.

Craig Biddle: This is OK if I remember to save the 3 for the fourth round… I need to score five hearts, two diamonds and three clubs, so I am dead anyway if clubs are 4-1. Likewise, I can’t handle 5-0 hearts. This way, I can guard against West having the club stopper. … East could defeat me with A-x-x-x if I led a heart before establishing a club trick, since he could win the first heart…

Bill Daly: I need a third club trick, so I can’t succeed if clubs are 4-1. I can’t afford to let East force me with a third spade, then lose a trick to West to face a fourth spade, so I have to establish clubs before leading trumps. Of course, I may need to retain the 3 to provide a late reentry to dummy.

Thijs Veugen: Give away a club as soon as possible. East probably has only three spades along with his A-x-x-x and K…

Douglas Dunn: If I play trumps, there is a danger of getting forced if East has four trumps and West three clubs.

Phil Clayton: I have to keep this out of the water hazard by knocking out the club before the trump, else West will have [two] spades to cash.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 3 — Par 4

IMPs E-W Vul	Q 2 A 2 K 8 6 4 2 Q 7 6 3		West Pass Pass All Pass	North 2 3	East Pass Pass	SOUTH 1 2 4
Lead: 9
4 South	K J 9 8 7 6 K 10 3 A 7 4 2

East plays the J if you play 2 (else the 7).

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
F. Win K; lead a club	10	68	7
A. Win A; K; ruff heart	8	531	55
E. Win K; A; K; ruff diamond	6	174	18
B. Win A; A; K; ruff diamond	5	67	7
C. Win K; lead J	3	37	4
D. Win K; lead 6	2	89	9

On this short Par 4, you seem to have teed off in the bidding with a long drive, hoping to reach the green — or maybe you just fell in love with your 9-8-7-6 in trumps. Regardless, the sight of dummy is good news, as 4  seems be to just a matter of ruffing a heart and drawing trumps. Not so fast! The green-side bunkers are treacherous. There’s a trump promotion lurking if you’re not careful.

West’s lead indicates short hearts*, most likely a doubleton. This alone does not prevent a heart ruff in dummy, since West is likely to have 3+ trumps (then an uppercut to force dummy’s queen won’t help the defense). The danger lies afterwards, when you try to draw trumps; if West has the 10, you may not be able to prevent him from scoring it by an overruff or promotion.

*While controversial, default contest agreements specify low from three low cards and fourth best from length. Sequences must be headed by an honor (10 is led from 10-9-x), so the proper lead from 9-8-x or 9-8-x-x is low.

Where are the missing high cards? East appears to have six hearts to the Q-J and a high club (West would lead a club with A-K), so the A and remaining high club should be with West; else East would have overcalled 2 . Here’s a plausible layout:

IMPs	Q 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	A 2		1 W	9	A	7	3
	K 8 6 4 2		2 N	2?	J	K	8
	Q 7 6 3		3 S	10	5	Q	4
A 10 5		4 3	4 N	2	3	K	A
9 8		Q J 7 6 5 4	5 W	8	3	A	2
Q 10 9		J 5 3	6 E	Q
K J 9 8 5		A 10	Declarer fails
	K J 9 8 7 6
	K 10 3
	A 7
4 South	4 2

Suppose you try the straightforward Line A. On the third heart West can either pitch or uppercut dummy with the 5; but when he later wins the A, he will reach East with a club for another heart to promote the 10. Quick and deadly — down one.

Leading trumps first (Line C or D) doesn’t help; in fact it gives West more ways to beat you. Even if you played double-dummy by leading the 6 and letting it ride, it wouldn’t matter because you would then have to ruff with the queen, and West would still get his promotion. If diamonds weren’t 3-3, West could simply win the A and return a trump to kill your heart ruff.

What about setting up diamonds? Even if they break 3-3, this won’t work because dummy’s entry will be removed. Suppose you win the K in hand and ruff out diamonds (Line D). If you lead trumps, West will win the second round and return a heart to kill dummy; if instead you try to ruff a heart, you’re back to the same promotion. Another dead end.

Instead of worrying about a heart ruff, consider the fairway rough. A good basic principle in card play is to restrict enemy options, which generally means leading uncontrolled suits first. And so it proves here. While there is little chance of developing a club trick, two club leads will break the enemy communication; then a successful path may emerge. Actually, all you probably need is for West to have long clubs (likely considering the heart layout) to develop a squeeze.

IMPs	Q 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	A 2		1 W	9	2	J	K
	K 8 6 4 2		2 S	4!	8	3	10
	Q 7 6 3		3 E	4	3	8	A
A 10 5		4 3	4 N	6!	A	2	5
9 8		Q J 7 6 5 4	5 E	3	6	10	Q
Q 10 9		J 5 3	6 N	2	4	K	A
K J 9 8 5		A 10	7 W	10	2	3	A
	K J 9 8 7 6		8 S	J	5	4	5
	K 10 3		9 S	9	9	7	6
	A 7		10 S	8	J	6	7
4 South	4 2		continued below…

After winning the K and leading a club (Line D), what can the defense do? If they continue hearts, you will lead a second club. At this point, the defense must lead a trump; else you can ruff a heart with impunity. If opponents lead ace and another trump, you have the luxury to ruff a club; but best is for East to lead the trump and for West to cover your six with the 10, forcing the queen. Continue trumps to drive out the ace, win the diamond return in hand, and cash three trumps to reach this position:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		11 S	7!	9	Q	5
	K 8		West then East squeezed
	Q
—		—
—		Q
Q 9		J 5
K		—
	7
	10
	7
South leads	—

The last trump then completes a double squeeze. West must keep the K, and East must keep the Q; so each must let go a diamond, and dummy wins the last two tricks. A true connoisseur would keep K-2 in dummy for greater effect — call it a poor man’s beer card.

Second place goes to the popular, straightforward approach (Line A), which probably requires the 10 to be with East; otherwise, a trump promotion is imminent. Ruffing a diamond early is considerably inferior, as it only adds risk without reward; between Lines B and E, I couldn’t find any significant difference, so they’re ranked by the voting.

Worst of all is to start by leading trumps. Between Lines C and D, the clumsy-looking lead of the J (Line C) is better, as it saves the day if West has A-x-x-(x) and diamonds are 3-3. If West wins and returns a trump, you can establish diamonds; otherwise, you can ruff a heart with the Q.

Comments for F. Win K; lead a club

Rainer Herrmann: Playing for the double squeeze unless defenders kill both diamond entries; but if they do that, a heart ruff will be safer from a trump promotion after their communication has been cut in clubs.

Jim Munday: A difficult hand; one in which club selection is critical. With East holding the likely heart length, West rates to have the 10; so ruffing a heart early will result in a fatal trump promotion. With no late entry, setting up the diamonds will not work. … The idea is to remove East’s entry in clubs for a trump promotion, while still retaining heart control. If a heart comes back, I will play a second club. If the defense prevents the heart ruff by playing ace and a spade, I will switch horses and ruff a club to isolate the menace; then if West holds the club length, I have a double (or simple) squeeze.

Bruce Neill: The lead looks like a doubleton. If so, the simple line of ruffing a heart risks a trump promotion. The good news is, if East has six hearts, West is likely to have the long clubs (and the A, since East couldn’t overcall). So I try for a double squeeze — if opponents break it up [by leading diamonds], they will allow me the heart ruff after all.

Steve White: Threatening a double squeeze if opponents pull trumps; else attacking their communication for the trump promotion.

Joon Pahk: I assume hearts are 2-6. … If diamonds are 3-3, opponents must either (1) let me ruff my heart in dummy, (2) let me draw trumps and set up diamonds, returning to dummy with the A, or (3) preserve my 10 and entries for a double squeeze around diamonds. …

Dmitri Shabes: I play West for something close to A-10-x 9-8 Q-x-x K-J-x-x-x. … If opponents play trumps [to stop a heart ruff], I will play a second club; win the A; ruff a club, and look! A double squeeze. …

Tim DeLaney: The 9 is almost surely from a doubleton. I must not ruff a heart straightaway, as I may then fall victim to a trump promotion when West has A-10-x. Enter the scissors coup. Opponents can erase the impending heart ruff, but then I will have control, entries and timing for a double squeeze with diamonds as the common suit when East is 2=6=3=2.

Manuel Paulo: Consider these possible West hands: A-10-x 9-x x-x-x-x J-x-x-x or A-10-x 9-x x-x-x K-x-x-x-x. To keep an entry to dummy, I win the lead in hand. Drawing trumps will maintain a heart loser, and ruffing diamonds will set up the suit for no use. So I lead a club, forcing opponents to win their club tricks before East can lead hearts to promote a trump trick.

Madhukar Bapu: Playing diamonds early could result in the loss of two clubs and two trumps. Drawing trumps on winning the first trick may [leave] no way to come to 10 tricks. A club lead towards dummy at trick two has enormous merit, either to materialize a simple or double squeeze, or to sever the defenders’ communication to avoid a possible trump promotion.

Brad Theurer: Planning a scissors coup…to thwart a potential trump promotion. West probably has two hearts and quite possibly A-10-x.

Imre Csiszar: Being short in hearts, West is likely to hold A-10-x, so I have to cut the opponents’ communication to prevent West from making the 10 via a late overruff. If opponents lead trumps to prevent the heart ruff, squeeze chances appear good. …

Dean Pokorny: Preventing an overruff with the 10 when West has something like A-10-x 9-8 J-x-x A-J-x-x-x.

Jonathan Mestel: West could have, say, A-10-x 9-8 10-9-x A-J-10-9-x, and [later] I may have a double squeeze — or I may just cut communication…

Eugene Dille: I think I can get a double squeeze out of this.

Barry White: Tough hand to be certain what to do. I like winning the heart in hand and starting to cut their lines of communication, which also leaves me options if trumps are led. I do not take the immediate heart ruff because a later trump promotion can beat me if West has A-10-x 9-x J-x-x A-J-x-x-x or so. Trying to drive the green could get me a bogey.

Andrew Finkenstadt: Aiming for the club house.

Bill Daly: It’s pointless to set up diamonds, because even if they break, there will be no late entry to dummy to cash them after drawing trumps. If I ruff a heart in dummy, East may be able to promote a trump trick when he gets in by playing a fourth heart… If I can lose a couple of clubs, I may end up with a squeeze position since East appears to have Q-J.

George Klemic: Removing the club entry [to reduce the chance] of a trump promotion when the A is won. Let the opponents commit to a line… If they attack trumps, I will retain the A entry to set up diamonds (if 3-3).

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 4 — Par 5

IMPs Both Vul	10 3 A Q J 7 5 Q J 2 A K Q		WEST Pass 2 Pass	North 1 Dbl 5	East 1 Pass All Pass	South Pass 4
Lead: 2		East pitches 7
5 South	9 5 2 2 A 10 5 J 10 7 6 4 3

After winning the A:

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
E. Finesse 10; lead a spade	10	122	13
A. Lead the 10	8	151	16
B. Lead the 3	7	148	15
D. Run the Q	6	139	14
F. Finesse 10; finesse Q	4	111	11
C. Win A; run Q	3	295	31

West may have found the killing lead. A routine spade would have given you the timing for a spade ruff, but now West may be able to clear dummy’s trumps. West is likely to have two spade entries because the usual reason for not leading partner’s suit is holding the ace.* Well, if West wants to lead clubs, you’ll just have to reach into your own bag of clubs and pull out the old 2-iron. A few practice swings near his groin might change his perspective. Care to lead any more clubs, fella? I didn’t think so!

*Leader then knows it is unnecessary to establish a trick in that suit, plus the ace might establish a trick for declarer. Further, leading the ace sometimes cramps the defense by wasting leader’s only entry.

It looks like the diamond finesse must work to have any chance, and your 11th trick may have to come from hearts, either a direct finesse or a ruffing finesse, since you don’t have the necessary trumps or entries to establish hearts by ruffing. The heart finesse can wait, so you might as well see what happens when you lead a spade. Consider a typical layout:

IMPs	10 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	A Q J 7 5		1 W	2	A	7	3
	Q J 2		2 N	10?	Q	2	A!
	A K Q		3 W	5	K	3	4
A J 8		K Q 7 6 4	4 N	3	4	9	J
9 6		K 10 8 4 3	5 W	8	Q	4	6
9 8 6 4		K 7 3	6 N	Q	3	5	8
9 8 5 2		—	7 N	2	7	10	4
	9 5 2		Declarer fails
	2
	A 10 5
5 South	J 10 7 6 4 3

After winning the A, suppose you lead the 10 (Line A). West wins the jack (or overtakes with the ace if East covers) and leads a second trump. If you lead another spade, West will win as cheaply as possible and lead a third trump. Curtains — no spade ruff, and no entry to dummy to benefit from the ruffing heart finesse. Leading the 3 (Line B) comes to the same conclusion.

What about taking the ruffing heart finesse immediately (Line C)? Or after winning the second trump in Line A or B? No, East will cover the Q, denying the quick discard, then West’s fourth trump prevents you from enjoying the J. If you lead the Q early, East will not cover to prevent creating an entry to dummy. Frustrating, as you swing your 2-iron near East: Cover this!

Everyone is familiar with the advantage of leading toward honors, but it often goes unrealized when those honors seem too low to matter. Even spot cards may gain stature when the lead comes the right way.

IMPs	10 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	A Q J 7 5		1 W	2	A	7	3
	Q J 2		2 N	2!	3	10	4
	A K Q		3 S	2!	J	3	4
A J 8		K Q 7 6 4	4 W	5	K	3	4
9 6		K 10 8 4 3	5 N	10	Q	5	A
9 8 6 4		K 7 3	6 W	8	Q	4	6
9 8 5 2		—	7 N	Q	7	5	6
	9 5 2		8 N	J	K	A	8
	2		9 S	J	9	5	6
	A 10 5		10 S	10	9	7	8
5 South	J 10 7 6 4 3		continued below…

The 10 and 9 are significant, and the key play is to cross to hand with a diamond finesse to lead a spade toward dummy. The edge is that you will not waste the 10 since West must hop to continue trumps. Then lead the 10 to West, who leads a third trump. Next win the Q (East must duck, else dummy has a hard entry) and A, and cash two trumps to reach this ending:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	A Q J		11 S	7	8	J	?
	—		East is squeezed
	—
8		K
9 6		K 10
—		—
—		—
	9
	2
	—
South leads	7

Your care in handling spades has retained the 9, an isolated threat against East because West had to spend A-J early to clear dummy’s trumps. Leading the last trump now squeezes East in the majors*, and you win the rest.

*West should pitch the 8 and East the 10 to give you a losing option (heart finesse); but you are aware of the original heart distribution, which means 5:2 odds that East has the king. Further, a losing finesse goes down two; while a failing squeeze only goes down one.

Curiously, if South’s diamonds were A-10-9, the second finesse would be unnecessary — as well as an error, because West might ruff the third diamond. Instead, winning the A would create a third threat ( 9) against East and result in a repeating triple squeeze. Of course, you can’t afford this luxury with A-10-5.

Second place goes to leading a spade from dummy immediately. Which one? Good question. I thought there might be some subtle difference but failed to find any, so Lines A and B are ranked by the voting. Line D (running the Q) follows next and is almost as good, the slight defect being that West could have a doubleton diamond and get a ruff.*

*A doubleton diamond also defeats the winning line, but this is less likely than normal percentages because East probably would have used Michaels with five spades and five diamonds.

Lines C and F, committing to a heart finesse before trying to ruff a spade, are clearly inferior. Between them, the straight finesse (Line F) is better because it doesn’t require a 4-3 break. Some would argue that East is more likely to hold the K on the bidding; but once he is assumed to hold the K, it’s not clear. A stronger argument is that West would not lead a trump looking at three or four low hearts (what you need for the ruffing finesse), so he rates to have the K or shortness.

Comments for E. Finesse 10; lead a spade

Rainer Herrmann: I assume East is unlikely to hold K-x-x-x-x for lack of a Michaels cue-bid. My plan is to play East for the K should West turn up with two spade honors. If East denies me a late diamond entry for the ruffing heart finesse, he will be squeezed in the majors.

Jim Munday: I need East to hold the K to have any chance. West is likely to hold two honors in the majors…but might have three. I’m inclined to play West for the K based on the trump lead, but I don’t need to commit right away. … Assuming the 10 finesse works and West wins the spade to play a trump, a second spade requires West to have two spade honors (thus making East more likely to have the K) to lead a third trump. … Next comes the Q, and East has a Hobson’s choice: (1) If he ducks, a third diamond to hand allows me to squeeze him in the majors. (Based on East’s first pitch, West surely has the 8, which defeats Line A or B, since I must keep the 9 in hand to isolate the threat.) (2) If East covers, the late entry to dummy allows me to take a ruffing heart finesse. …

Alex Perlin: How come East has no clubs? What is he doing on the golf course?

Lajos Linczmayer: I suppose West has A-J-8 or A-Q-8, so East’s critical holding is, e.g., K-Q-7-6-4 K-x-x-x-x K-x-x —. I will either ruff a spade or squeeze East in spades and hearts.

Bruce Neill: The trump lead suggests hearts are unfriendly. East didn’t use Michaels so might easily be 5=5=3=0. If East has three spade honors, I can get a spade ruff without difficulty. If West has two spade honors, say, A-Q-8 x-x x-x-x-x 9-8-x-x, I need to be careful to lead the first spade from South, so that if West rises to keep leading trumps, his 8 won’t ever be a winner. I also need to be careful to protect my entries to hand; if I run the Q at trick two, opponents may knock out the A early and beat me with a trump promotion.

Steve White: Taking the risk of 5-2 diamonds (low risk since no Michaels) to try to keep a spade threat against East for a spade-heart squeeze if West has two spade honors. (If East blocks communication in diamonds, I have an entry to play for the ruffing heart finesse after West shows up with two spade honors.).

John Reardon: I need the diamond finesse; and if I can ruff a spade, I won’t need to guess the location of the K. I can’t legitimately stop West from winning twice in spades if he holds two honors, however, I can isolate the spade menace to East by starting spades from hand. Then I can play for a spade-heart squeeze against East. This gains when East is 5=5=3=0. …

Charles Blair: If West has two spade honors, and East has the K, this isolates the menace. However, I feel the opening lead strongly suggests West has the K, and I’m worried that East is 5=3=5=0.

Joon Pahk: I’m going to try to locate the K by discovery play. Opponents have 16 HCP, and I need East to have the K; if the HCP are roughly 6 and 10 (East did make a vulnerable overcall) I can infer the location of the K by who shows up with what in spades. Whenever I lead a spade, West must win to play a trump, else I can just ruff my third spade. … If West has two spade honors…and I can knock them out without using my nine, I’ll have a simple squeeze against East if he has the K. To that end, I’d very much like to start spades from hand. The only risk is a diamond ruff,…but for that to materialize, East had to reject Michaels with 5=3=5=0… Starting spades from dummy requires misdefense or West to have specifically the 4-spot. …

Manuel Paulo: If West has something like A-J-8 x-x x-x-x-x 9-8-5-2, I must lead spades from hand to preserve the nine. If West wins two spade tricks to lead trumps, East is squeezed in the majors. The expert in West should have led a heart at the first trick.

Rob Stevens: By leading toward the 10, I can set up a spade-heart squeeze on East after West wins two high spades to lead clubs. Finding West with two spade honors also helps to place the K. …

Weidong Yang: I’ll find out which spade honors West has before deciding who has the K. If East has the K, I can squeeze him…if West has no more than two spade honors.

Nigel Guthrie: Preparing for a major-suit squeeze.

Madhukar Bapu: I will play West for 3=2=4=4 or 4=2=3=4 shape and two honors in spades. The 9 is the key card which later becomes a threat card to…squeeze East. No wonder this is a 565-yard drive!

Imre Csiszar: This combines the chances of Lines A, B and C… Suppose West shows up with A-J, making the K [more likely] with East. Although the K can no longer be finessed, a spade-heart squeeze works against East.

Dean Pokorny: Establishing the 9 as a threat to…squeeze East (holding, say, K-J-x-x-x K-x-x-x K-x-x-x —) if West returns two more rounds of trump.

Jonathan Mestel: Playing West for K-Q-8 x-x-x x-x-x x-x-x-x. The 7 from East suggests West has the 8, and I can isolate the spade guard [to squeeze East]. If West wins a spade and returns what looks like his last diamond, I can change tack and guess who has the K. …

Barry Rigal: I can always take the ruffing heart finesse later, but [first] I’ll try for a spade ruff (maybe West as K-8-x or the like) or to set up a squeeze…

El Asser: … West figures to hold a [top] spade and no red kings.

Mauri Saastamoinen: My main plan is to ruff a spade. To prevent this, West must take the lead twice in spades and play two more trumps. It seems West has something like A-J-8, which means I must start spades from hand to build up an isolated threat against the innocent victim sitting on my right. … [After winning dummy’s last trump] and leading the Q: If East ducks, ending is a simple squeeze; if he covers, I can ruff his K into the ashtray — as long as I remember to pull West’s last trump. …

Subhransu Patnaik: West needs to win twice to draw trumps, which requires at least two spades higher than the 10. By playing spades from hand, I can preserve the 9 to squeeze East in spades and hearts.

Roger Morton: … Just in case West has only one spade honor, I’ll play spades before I commit to a…heart finesse; but I prefer to play spades first from hand so as to keep the 9 as a squeeze menace. …

Neelotpal Sahai: The 10 and 9 are crucial cards. If West has two spade honors, he can win both spade plays and return clubs to kill my ruffing chance. Then I am forced to guess who has the K, which is more likely to be East, who will be caught in a spade-heart squeeze, so there is no need to take a ruffing finesse. …

Barry White: It seems I need the diamond finesse; and by developing a possible threat card against East with the 9, I hope to increase my chances in an end position. With two spade honors, West must win immediately to continue trumps. … East is likely to be 5=4=4=0 but doesn’t need the K, although he may have it. I like my chances for a par, but a three-putt bogey is a possibility.

Tong Xu: If West lacks two spade honors, I can ruff a spade in dummy. If he is able to win both spades, I still have my 9 and can play for a heart finesse or a spade-heart squeeze finally. The danger is that East may have five diamonds, but I don’t want to guess the K right now.

Albert Ohana: If West wins [both spades] and insists on playing trumps, East will be squeezed, assuming he has both red kings and the [remaining] spade honors.

William Grover: Are you saying the finesse of the 10 will work?

Oh, sorry, no. You’re down one. Curious, how everyone else got lucky.

Joshua Donn: I probably need East to hold the K, and I read him as 5=4=4=0 or 5=5=3=0 since he didn’t use Michaels. Due to the assumed heart length in East and West’s trump lead, I believe East has the K. The key is to make West use his high spades to get on lead for trump plays, thereby setting up a major-suit squeeze on East… To do this, I must lead the first spade from hand, but entries are tricky. … If East sticks in the K to cost me a hand entry, this creates a dummy entry for the ruffing heart finesse. …

Terry Lillie: Give East 5=4=4=0 distribution with both red kings and two of the four spade honors. Five clubs now makes on a spade-heart squeeze or a ruffing heart finesse, depending upon whether East ducks or covers in diamonds.

Jouko Paganus: Postponing the decision about the K. West must continue clubs after each spade lead, so I will see which honors he has. East is probably 5=4=4=0 because he might have bid 3  over the double with 5=3=5=0. In the end, I can finesse hearts or squeeze East in [the majors].

Sebastien Louveaux: … I definitely need the K onside, but I will decide later about the K. Playing a spade to dummy allows me to keep the 9 as a menace against East. When West takes the lead twice and plays trumps, I will know what his spade honors are. Then I will choose…between the heart finesse and a spade-heart squeeze.

Thijs Veugen: If West has…one spade honor, I succeed; and if he has two spade honors, a heart-spade squeeze against East remains.

Ludek Ambroz: East must have the K. To prevent my spade ruff, West must [win both spade leads] and continue with clubs. Then I will have a spade-heart squeeze against East, e.g., with A-J-8-7-4 K-x-x-x-x K-x-x —.

Sheldon Spier: Playing for at most two spade honors in West, so [if West wins both spades to lead trumps], I will set up a spade-heart squeeze against East. … At the end I must choose between the squeeze and simple finesse.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 5 — Par 4

IMPs N-S Vul	A Q 4 A K 3 8 6 5 4 9 3 2		West 2 Pass	NORTH 1 Pass 4	East Pass Pass All Pass	South 1 3
Lead: 6
4 South	7 5 Q J 10 9 2 A Q 8 6 5 4

West finds another great trump lead!

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Win Q; finesse Q; finesse Q	10	225	23
C. Win A; lead a club	8	285	30
A. Win A; finesse Q; finesse Q	6	152	16
F. Win Q; lead a club	5	127	13
E. Win Q; finesse Q; lead a club	4	98	10
B. Win A; finesse Q; lead a club	3	79	8

It’s a good thing spectators aren’t allowed to have cameras or recording devices, as your auction here was not a thing of beauty — though it might make the record books for bidding suits of 8-6-5-4. If partner can do it, so can you. OK, this is a Par 4 hole, so you weren’t getting off cheaply at the three level. Call it an overbid, or out-of-bounds in ground under repair; I don’t care.

Look at this West dude! Twice in a row he finds a brilliant trump lead, so your 2-iron demonstration may require an encore. Oh well, I guess the word is out about your overbidding. If the spade and diamond finesses both work (likely) you have nine cold tricks, and a 10th may come from a 3-3 club break (or ruffing your last club if opponents don’t remove dummy’s trumps). Not a good chance, but it may be all you can hope for. Consider a plausible layout:

IMPs	A Q 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	A K 3		1 W	6	3	4	Q
	8 6 5 4		2 S	4	10	2	7
	9 3 2		3 W	7	A	5	2
K J 9 8 6 2		10 3	4 N	3	A	5	K
7 6		8 5 4	5 E	8	9	6	K
J 9 2		K 10 7 3	Declarer fails
K 10		A Q J 7
	7 5
	Q J 10 9 2
	A Q
4 South	8 6 5 4

Suppose you lead clubs immediately after winning the A (Line C) or the Q (Line F). West will win and lead another trump; then East will win the next club and lead a third trump. With the club ruff eliminated, and clubs not breaking, there is no 10th trick. East can’t be squeezed because the diamond threat is useless without a diamond entry in the same hand. Down you go.

What about a dummy reversal? So close! Suppose you win the Q, finesse the Q, and finesse the Q. Next cash the A, cross to dummy in spades, ruff a diamond, exit with a club, win the trump return in dummy, and ruff a spade. Alas, you now have one trump in each hand but can’t reach dummy to ruff the last diamond (when you exit with a club, East will lead a trump).

Winning the first trick in dummy for an immediate diamond finesse (Line A or B) doesn’t help, as the second trump must then be won in hand, which leaves insufficient entries for a dummy reversal.* (Winning the first two trumps in dummy leaves the losing 3 after ruffing three times in hand.)

*Several respondents suggested an unlisted line of winning the A and both top diamonds with a finesse, but this falls short as well. For the dummy reversal to work, you need three high hearts (e.g., A-K-8) in dummy.

The key to solving this problem is to picture the most likely distribution. West should have six spades from the bidding, and his trump lead suggests no singleton. Therefore, 6=2=3=2 shape is most likely, which leaves East with 2=3=4=4. What will East pitch on the third spade? The way to benefit is to win the Q, finesse the Q and finesse the Q (Line D), then cross to the A to reach this position:

win 6	4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	A K		5 N	4!	7	2	2
	8 6 5		6 S	4	10	2	J
	9 3 2		7 E	5	9	7	K
K J 6 2		—	8 N	3	A	5	K
7		8 5	Declarer succeeds
J 9		K 10 7
K 10		A Q J 7
	—
	J 10 9 2
	A
North leads	8 6 5 4

Next lead the 4 from dummy, and watch East squirm. He can’t ruff, as it prevents a third trump lead. If he pitches a diamond, cash the A and exit with a club; then if trumps are continued, one ruff establishes the 8. If he pitches a club, lead clubs at each opportunity to set up the 8, while opponents must lead trumps to stop a crossruff. Note that it is crucial not to cash the A prematurely, as the entry is needed if East abandons clubs.

When a defender is squeezed in three suits, one of which is trumps, it is called a backwash squeeze if the defender plays after the inflicting ruff. Evidently, this should be called a frontwash squeeze because East plays before the ruff, but the term ‘knockout’ squeeze (which I don’t like) is also in use.

In the above layout, East will probably pitch a club to keep parity with dummy’s diamonds, since your 3  bid may have been manufactured as a means to force — or more aptly perhaps, as a means to farce. Therefore, if he pitches a diamond, there’s a good case to play him for five diamonds (2=3=5=3 shape) and pursue a 3-3 club break. Nonetheless, this is a dubious detour as it means failure in the above layout. Just be happy you didn’t have to make that decision.

Second place goes to Line C (win A, lead a club), which has several extra chances besides 3-3 clubs; e.g., East might have five clubs and only two hearts, plus some remote squeeze possibilities. Also, leading the first club from dummy makes the defense difficult; if East doesn’t play low in the example, you can succeed with accurate technique.

Third place goes to Line A (win A, finesse Q, finesse Q) which has similar hopes in the club suit, but the erosion of entries dooms any squeeze chances. Line F (win Q, lead a club) retains the squeeze chances, but blocking hearts is worse, allowing West to get a diamond ruff with K-J-9-8-x-x x-x-x J-x 10-x (or J-x-x K); all his diamonds go away, as dummy is locked with four club leads.

Lines B and E are worse still, and difficult to choose between. Lacking a high-speed camera to examine golf swings, my choice is easy at this stage: An Eagle beats a Birdie, so Line E gets the edge. Voting would have it the same way.

My example deal (except for the exact spot cards) occurred in a regional Swiss teams in the early ‘90s. I was North and happened to made note of it because we missed out in the bidding, selling to 2  when we were on for game (3 NT in a breeze). It wasn’t until recently while looking through old deals that I noticed the clever play required in 4 . It’s amazing how many things can slip by on the first encounter, even to the trained eye.

Everybody clear the green! All this back-and-front washing has caused the sprinklers to go on. I’ll meet you on the sixth tee.

Comments for D. Win Q; finesse Q; finesse Q

Rainer Herrmann: Then feed East more spades. He will have an interesting discard to make should he be 2=3=4=4. If East discards a diamond, I will have to guess the right continuation.

Jim Munday: Most of my golf shots wind up in the water, but here it will be East caught in the backwash. I will now play ace and a spade, and East will have no answer with his likely 2=3=4=4 pattern. I will have to read the position, but East is unlikely to part with a diamond holding four since he cannot be sure I have four clubs.

Alex Perlin: Hey Fritz, how have you been? Thanks for filling in for North. I am glad golf balls flying by have not changed your inimitable bidding style.

Lajos Linczmayer: Next I lead a spade to the ace and ruff dummy’s last spade, squeezing East in three suits if his shape is 2=3=4=4. If he discards a diamond, I must guess whether he is 2=3=4=4 or 2=3=5=3 (the former is more likely).

Bruce Neill: Ruffing the third spade may squeeze East if he has, say, x-x x-x-x K-J-x-x A-Q-J-x. If East throws a diamond, I will need to guess his shape.

Steve White: Perhaps playing for clubs 3-3 gives better odds, but a squeeze in three suits including trumps gives much better odds of making the paper. :)

John Reardon: A funny thing happens if I continue with A and a spade, and East has something like x-x x-x-x K-x-x-x A-K-J-x. He must concede a trick whatever he plays: A trump means only one more trump can be led, and I ruff my last club in dummy; a diamond means I can set up the long diamond with one ruff; a club means my last club will be good.

Joon Pahk: Both hooks rate to be on, which is nice since I need them. If clubs are not 3-3, I still have a chance if East is 2=3=4=4 — he’ll be squeezed in three suits when I ruff the third spade high. If he pitches a club, I’ll play clubs next; if a diamond, I’ll have to guess whether he was 2=3=5=3 or 2=3=4=4. Normally this squeeze works on the other opponent. Is this therefore a frontwash squeeze?

You got it, but this month we’ll call it the Joon Moon in June.

Charles Blair: Then A and a spade ruff, hoping East is 2=3=4=4.

Dmitri Shabes: Yet another squeeze, and indeed a rare one. Let’s assume West would [rarely] lead a singleton trump…and would certainly lead a singleton diamond if he had one. Clubs breaking 3-3 then is a lesser chance, and much more boring than West having 6=2=3=2 distribution. … Next cash the A and ruff a spade to squeeze East in three suits, including trumps.

Tim DeLaney: On the auction, both finesses are likely to succeed. [Next] I play a spade to the ace and ruff a spade. If East is 2=3=4=4, he will be squeezed in three suits, one of which is trumps.

Manuel Paulo: If East has a hand like x-x x-x-x K-x-x-x A-Q-J-x, he will be squeezed in trumps and the minor suits [when I ruff dummy’s spade].

Rob Stevens: When East is 2=3=4=4, he is subject to one of those strange squeezes without a name (or does it?) on the third spade. He either has to [unguard] the fourth round of a minor or discard a trump, allowing a club ruff.

Weidong Yang: A subtle squeeze against East, reminding me of Geza Ottlik… It doesn’t matter if this is the best line; just appreciate the elegance. :)

Dale Freeman: Next play is the A and a spade ruff. East’s most likely shape is 2=3=4=4, and his discard may show the way.

Madhukar Bapu: … Conditions do not quite exist for a dummy reversal, but the play of dummy’s last spade should squeeze East, paving the way to 10 tricks.

Brad Theurer: I hope East has 2=3=4=4 shape, in which case…the third spade will squeeze him in three suits, including trumps.

Ed Davis: … A spade ruff will squeeze East in three suits if he started with 2=3=4=4…

Dean Pokorny: Producing a backwash squeeze when East has 2=3=4=4 distribution.

Jonathan Mestel: Then A and a spade ruff, with East having x-x x-x-x K-J-10-x A-Q-J-x. Great problem, and no reason not to find it at the table… Note that I must not release the A early.

Gilles Korngut: East is squeezed in three suits (including trumps) if he started with 2=3=4=4.

Mauri Saastamoinen: After the lead, I can only hope that East has 2=3=4=4 distribution and K. On the third spade, East is shamelessly squeezed in a perverted way. If he throws a club, my fourth club will be the 10th trick; if a diamond, dummy’s fourth diamond will come to the rescue; if he trumps, I can trump the fourth club in dummy.

Subhransu Patnaik: All finesses should work, and I need to squeeze East… Next play the A and a third spade, and East will be in trouble if he started with 4-4 in the minors and a doubleton spade. Any minor pitch will promote the fourth card in that minor, and a ruff will let me ruff the fourth club. If East follows to the third spade, hope for a 3-3 club break.

Roger Morton: What a pity I’m an entry short for a true dummy reversal. I’ll now play the A and ruff a spade, and East will have no good discard with 2=3=4=4 shape.

Frans Buijsen: I’m playing East for 2=3=4=4 shape with the K (a likely holding). If I follow up with the A and a small spade, East is squeezed with the count three off. …

Neelotpal Sahai: West may have K-J-10-x-x-x x-x J-x-x A-x, and East x-x x-x-x K-x-x-x K-Q-J-10. … If I continue with the A and spade from dummy, East is squeezed in the minors…

Tong Xu: Next I will play the A and ruff a spade. If East has 2=3=4=4 shape, he will be squeezed. The problem occurs when East discards a diamond. Should I take the A and play for the squeeze? Or play for clubs 3-3?

John Lusky: Continuing with the A and a low spade squeezes East in an odd way if he is 2=3=4=4.

Toby Kenney: Next cash the A and ruff a spade, which will squeeze East if he holds x-x x-x-x K-x-x-x A-K-Q-x.

David Wiltshire: Continue with a spade to the ace and a spade ruff. If East is a 2=3=4=4 (likely on the bidding), he is squeezed in three suits, including trumps. …

Travis Crump: … Assuming East is 2=3=4=4, which seems likely, he will be squeezed [when I continue] with the A and 4. It was important to win the first heart in South, as I need both dummy entries to establish a diamond if East pitches a diamond.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Hole 6 — Par 3 NT

IMPs E-W Vul	K 6 2 Q J 3 2 Q 7 4 A J 9		West Pass Pass	North 1 3 NT	EAST Pass Pass All Pass	South 1 1 NT
Lead: J		East plays 8
3 NT South	A 9 4 A K 4 8 5 3 Q 8 3 2

Finally, a notrump bid!

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Win A; run Q	10	126	13
E. Win A; finesse J	8	309	32
B. Win K; K; finesse J	6	131	14
A. Win K; K; run Q	5	47	5
F. Win A; finesse 9	4	319	33
C. Win K; run hearts	1	34	4

Do you expect to finish with a hole-in-one? I don’t think so! A stiff head wind, and a sloping green with deep bunkers, make this Par 3 one of the toughest holes on the course. Never mind that you’re playing in your favorite contract, and West didn’t find the best lead. You’re still a long way from par, as you may have to lose the lead in clubs.

In view of East’s 8 signal and your own 9, West’s lead must be a short suit.* Therefore, West is likely to have four diamonds, and you’re lucky he didn’t lead them (barring A-K onside). You must develop clubs to win nine tricks; and if a club must be lost, it may be crucial to lose it to East to prevent opponents from running diamonds.

*Proper lead from J-10-7-x-(x) is fourth-best, so West should have J-10-x or J-10 doubleton.

Club selection is often crucial, so let’s ask our caddy which club to play. In isolation, the best play to win three club tricks is to finesse the jack. If it loses, cash A-Q hoping the 10 falls. If it wins, cross to hand in hearts and lead the Q, which is guaranteed to succeed if West has the king as indicated; but it could succumb to trickery if East ducked with K-10-x-x-x. A priori, this offers an 80-percent chance, assuming East ducks half the time with K-10-x-x-x. Consider a plausible layout:

IMPs	K 6 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	Q J 3 2		1 W	J	2	8	A
	Q 7 4		2 S	2?	6	J	4
	A J 9		3 N	2	5	K	7
J 10 5		Q 8 7 3	4 S	Q	K	A	5
9 8 7		10 6 5	5 N	9	7	3	10
K J 9 6		A 10 2	6 W	J!
K 10 6		7 5 4	Declarer fails
	A 9 4
	A K 4
	8 5 3
3 NT South	Q 8 3 2

Suppose you win the A and finesse the J (Line E). This easily produces the club tricks you need, but you must give up the lead to enjoy them. West will then realize that his best chance to defeat 3 NT is to find East with the A, and the J will be on the table — sending you from the Golf Channel to the History Channel in one fell swoop.

Instead you should take a slightly inferior club play by leading the queen first (Line D) to keep West off lead. In theory, this is only about 3 percent worse, and the failing cases (K-10 fifth or sixth with East) are extremely far-fetched when you consider that West led a short spade suit. Thus, the technical loss is negligible, and the strategic gain is significant.

What about winning the first spade in dummy? Not good, as this creates insoluble entry problems. After winning the K, crossing to the K and leading the Q (Line A), West will cover (king, ace). Then you must cross in hearts and finesse clubs again to cater to the diagram; but if East has the 10, a spade return will sever your communication. Ouch. Winning the first spade in hand keeps your entries fluid and avoids this mess.

Finessing the 9 first (Line F) gains outright when East has K-x, and it also has psychological merit when East has 10-x-x (he’ll think his partner has K-Q-x and not realize the urgency of a diamond shift). Alas, the price tag is too high, as it loses outright when East has K-10-x, K-10, 10-x or a blank 10. You can’t expect to win at Pinehurst laying those odds.

Worst by far is Line C (win K, run hearts) as it not only cramps your communication but also telegraphs the diamond weakness. Even if you cash only three hearts*, ending in hand to lead a club, you are limited to one club finesse and cannot benefit from the described technique.

*As Line C is worded, normal interpretation (at least by me) is that it means running the entire suit, or four rounds. This would dictate leading clubs from dummy (no finesse) since the A is your only remaining hand entry. Thus, Line C clearly deserves the basement.

Comments for D. Win A; run Q

Rainer Herrmann: In isolation, Line E is the best play for three club tricks. Comparatively, this loses only if West has a [void] or small singleton, but it makes the diamond switch much harder to find…in common cases. Line F gives up too many genuine chances for three club tricks.

Jim Munday: I need to manage my entries for the best chance to get three club tricks. I want to lose a club trick to East (if anyone) because if East has three diamonds, the defense can take only three diamond tricks (I’ll play for split honors). If West gets in, they can take four regardless (assuming split honors and no blockage). I can’t afford to play hearts early, as I can’t untangle my entries. … Also, it will not be clear for West to cover the K-x-x-x, so I may succeed even when opponents can cash four diamond tricks.

Alex Perlin: If opponents now cash four diamonds, I will move to greener pastures.

Lajos Linczmayer: West led a short suit. I should win three club tricks without losing the lead, or by losing the lead to East and hoping he has three diamonds. Finessing the J gives up the chance of K-10-x or longer in West, and leading the queen is better than finessing the nine. …

Bruce Neill: I need to take three club tricks without letting opponents in, or hope East returns a spade if a club finesse loses. The lead looks like J-10-x, so West figures to be long in clubs or hearts. … West may fail to cover with K-x-x-x, knowing I have club length and fearing Q-10-x-x-(x). I don’t want to touch hearts first because if West suspects I have four heart tricks, he will know he has to cover the Q. And, if East knows I have four heart tricks, he will definitely switch to diamonds if the club finesse loses.

Steve White: I want to maximize chances of three club tricks, with a strong preference for keeping West off lead. In addition to its technical merit, this could win when West does not cover with K-x-x-x (and he can’t know to cover since I could have Q-10-x-x).

John Reardon: If clubs are favorable, I may win nine top tricks without losing the lead… If the Q loses, I will still succeed if opponents don’t win 4+ diamond tricks, so long as the 10 drops. …

Charles Blair: This loses (compared to finessing the nine) if East has K-x, but gains against K-10-x, K-10 [or 10-x].

Tim DeLaney: The play to trick one makes it clear that West has [short] spades. West would likely have led a diamond from four, so he is likely to be 3=3=3=4, or 3=3=2=5. In any case, the diamonds are threatening enough that it looks like I should play for three fast club tricks. Club selection is crucial on Par 3’s, so I choose the Q, intending to finesse the 9 later if covered. West will have a hard time covering if he has K-x-x-x, because it could give up the whole suit. …

Rob Stevens: Any club play might work, but this has good deceptive qualities. West might not cover with K-x-x-x, playing me for five clubs [or Q-10-x-x].

Weidong Yang: Best chance to get three clubs is to finesse the J, but I should avoid letting West gain the lead. Between Lines A, D and F, Line F wins when West has 10-x-x-x, while Line A or D wins when West has K-x-x-x. Line F also loses on some 3-3 breaks. I choose Line D over Line A because it gives out less information to opponents.

Chuck Lamprey: Playing West for K-10-x [or longer]. If East can win a club trick and doesn’t (or can’t) beat me in diamonds, I’ll have another chance.

Dale Freeman: From J-10-x-x, most will lead low; therefore, West is likely to have J-10-x. West may only have three diamonds because he did not lead diamonds, so his club holding is more likely to be K-x-x-x than K-x. I like this play because, with K-x-x-x (without the 10), West may not cover because that would give me four undeserved club tricks if I had the 10.

Brad Theurer: The lead looks like two or three spades, so I’ll play West for club length. This wins if he has both club honors, or if he doesn’t cover with K-x-x-x. Even if the club hook loses, East may have both top diamonds, [honor-third] or fail to find the switch — which is why I don’t adopt Line A, which gives East more information.

Imre Csiszar: Not the percentage play for three club tricks, but perhaps best for three tricks without losing the lead. West is unlikely to cover with K-x-x-x; and if he holds K-x-x, it is better to lose the third club to East…

Barry Rigal: Line F is a nice deceptive play, but K-10-x onside looks too good to pass up.

Julian Wightwick: If the Q is covered, I’ll come back to the A and finesse the 9. I don’t want to give away the red-suit position, so I don’t fancy Line A or B. … The clincher is that I really don’t want to let West in if he has the K because opponents then can run diamonds if East has A-K-x-x, A-x-x or K-x-x. Line F is worse because it loses [two tricks] to K-10-x offside.

Mauri Saastamoinen: Line E is the normal play, but this hand has other considerations because of the weak diamonds. The main advantage in leading the Q is not to take four club tricks when West has K-10-x but to win three tricks without losing the lead (e.g., when West has K-10-x-x). This also works like a charm when West has K-x-x-x and does not cover; and why should he?

Roger Morton: … Even if East wins the K, all may not be lost. East may have only three diamonds, or West may have both top honors…

Steve Mager: I win the spade in hand to hide the diamond weakness. Running the Q will win three club tricks [without losing the lead] more often than hooking the jack.

Pierre Boes: Potential is there to win three clubs [without losing the lead] so I go for it, keeping enough entries in South. … Moreover, it is better to keep West off lead, as a lead through dummy’s diamonds would be bad.

Gerald Murphy: … Hoping to pick up the K; or if I have to lose a club trick, maybe East will hold only three diamonds.

Final Notes

I hope you enjoyed the contest, as well as the thrills of the U.S. Open. I’m still laughing at all those balls rolling off the greens, but I guess it’s not so funny when our trump suits behave the same way. Thanks to all who entered, and especially those who offered kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected from those above average (top 489) or in the overall Top 200 prior to this contest, and on each problem only those who supported the winning play. While this might be considered biased, I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and to avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are off base. On this basis, I included over 70 percent of the eligible comments. If you supplied comments not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly except for corrections in spelling and grammar. Where I have included only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) indicates where text was cut. Text [in brackets] was supplied by me to summarize a cut portion or fix an omission. Comments are listed in order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing. I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems (combined with the input of comments) has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

The Winners’ Tent at Pinehurst was crawling with talent… around here, just crawling:

Bill Powell: I’ve played too many hooks, as usual.

Jonathan Mestel: “It don’t mean a thing, if it ain’t got that swing.” -Duke Ellington

Rob Stevens: Hoots man! Where’s my mashie niblick when I need it?

Jim Saxon: I quit golf after 40 years to play bridge — and now I have play Tiger?

Curt Reeves: Oh well, I am used to being in the sand!

David Wiltshire: When my girlfriend saw I spent more time on a bridge quiz rather than with her, I ran into a water hazard.

Analyses 8X40 Main Challenge

Scores Top Par for the Course

Acknowledgments to the USGA. Golfer pictured is Tiger Woods.
© 2005 Richard Pavlicek