Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

The Worst Leading Man

Scores  by Richard Pavlicek

Well, the award ceremony is history, like your partnership with this West creep. Hopefully, you have recovered after witnessing his horrendous leads; but even if you didn’t, look at the bright side: You might win a PavCo Award yourself for “Worst Original Score” — and I don’t mean music. If you disaree with my scoring, you can nominate me for “Worst Director,” but that probably won’t matter since my remake of The Lord of the Rings is already up for “Worst Picture.”

Problem 1

2

3

4

5

6

Final Notes

During the month of April 2004, these six defensive-play problems were published on the Internet as a contest. All bridge players were invited to participate. In each case, your partner made an unfortunate opening lead. Your goal as East was to choose the best defense from the choices offered to salvage what you can.

Ding-Hwa Hsieh Wins!

This contest had 908 participants from 115 locations, and the average score was 38.91. Congratulations to Ding-Hwa Hsieh (US), who was the first of two persons to submit perfect scores. Also scoring 60 was John Lusky (US). Curiously, this is the first time in all 22 play contests that first and second place are both from the same country — OK, all together now, “Oh, say can you see…” Close behind at 59 were Patrice Piganeau (France) and Zahary Zahariev (Bulgaria), followed by Richard Stein (US) alone with 58.

In the overall standings, Zahary Zahariev’s sizzling average actually dropped to 59.50 — aww, everyone shed a tear — which still holds the top spot, but now only by tiebreaker over Leif-Erik Stabell (Zimbabwe). Moving up to third place is Gareth Birdsall (UK) with 58.00, followed closely by Charles Blair (US) with 57.75.

In the April Bot's Eye View, Blue Chip Bridge (UK) and GIB (US) topped the bots with respectable scores of 48, and Bridge Buff (Canada) was third with 45. Overall champ Jack (Netherlands) had an off month with only 35 but still holds the overall lead despite GIB gaining ground.

Since I began this activity in September of 2000, there have been 44 monthly events (22 bidding polls and 22 play contests) with a total of 30,406 entries, comprising 4650 persons from 86 countries. Thanks to all who participated. And then there were three! Reminiscent of my Agatha Christie theme in February, only three persons now have participated in every event. Special thanks go to Charles Blair (US), Bill Cubley (US) and Meelis Tiitson (Estonia).

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and you use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each problem offered six plausible defensive options for East. The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which may be influenced by comments received.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 1

Matchpoints Both Vul	K J 9 2 10 8 7 4 A 2 K 8 6		WL Man West Pass Pass All Pass	North 1 3 1	You East Pass Pass	SOUTH 1 1 4
4 South		Q 4 Q J 9 J 10 8 3 Q 9 7 2

Trick 1 W 2 S

Lead 4 5

2nd 2 3

3rd 10 J

4th Q Q

1. forcing

Next Lead	Award	Votes	Percent
9	10	140	15
2	7	61	7
4	6	165	18
Q	5	407	45
3	4	80	9
J	1	56	6

The old “unbid suit caper” strikes again, as partner apparently blew a trick with his lead from the K. Some defenders in the East position would become irritated by this and fail to consider what can be done from here on. Don’t give up! Other Wests may make the same stupid lead, so the situation is not hopeless.

Partner’s fourth-best lead marks South with three diamonds, so South should be 4=3=3=3, 4=2=3=4 or 4=1=3=5. Of the missing high cards ( A, A-K, A) partner should have one, as South needs three for his opening. (If South had all four, he would have made a slam try or opened 1 NT with a balanced 17.) Consider this plausible layout:

Matchpoints	K J 9 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	10 8 7 4		1 W	4	2	10	Q
	A 2		2 S	5	3	J	Q
	K 8 6		3 E	9!	10	J	K
A 8 3		Q 4	4 N	K	4	6	A
6 5 2		Q J 9	5 W	5	6	7	A
K 9 6 4		J 10 8 3	Declarer fails
J 5 3		Q 9 7 2
	10 7 6 5
	A K 3
	Q 7 5
4 South	A 10 4

Given time, declarer will draw trumps and establish dummy’s fourth heart for a club discard. To prevent this you must shift to clubs, and specifically the nine, a surrounding (or entrapment) play to prevent declarer from ducking to capture partner’s presumed jack. The club play is likely to go: nine, 10, jack, king. When partner wins the A, he will lead a second club to establish your queen (or seven) as the setting trick.* Note that this defense works just as well if partner has a high heart instead of the A.

*Declarer can succeed by giving up a heart before leading a second spade, but this is double-dummy. Odds much favor leading trumps first, as the defense has no option who can win the A; whereas, if the heart honors were divided (as usual), the defense could manage to win in the proper hand to continue clubs. Further, failure to lead trumps might result in a club ruff or the erasure of dummy’s fourth heart (e.g., if East held Q-x or J-x).

I did not like awarding second place to the 2, because it’s a clear technical error; but aesthetics don’t count. The  2 is better than leading any other suit, as it still defeats the contract when partner has J-10-x or the A.*

*Partner is not marked with the A, since declarer’s first-round finesse is the proper technique with A-8-x-x. Even with A-10-x-x, declarer is likely to play this way, since West’s opening lead makes him a distinct favorite to hold the Q, else he might have led a trump.

Some respondents chose a trump return, hoping to get three rounds of trumps played, which leaves declarer a trick short if his shape is 4=2=3=4.* Unfortunately, this plan has three defects: (1) Declarer probably would try to develop a crossruff rather than lead trumps first, (2) unless partner has J-10, you cannot prevent declarer from establishing a third club trick ( A, K, then a club from dummy), and (3) your heart stopper will ruff out if South has A-K doubleton. Nonetheless, a trump is better than a passive heart or diamond, as it stops an overtrick when South has A-10-x-x K Q-x-x A-J-x-x-x.

*Several respondents tried to justify this by presuming South would rebid 1 NT with 4=3=3=3 shape. No, systemically he should not bypass a four-card spade suit. A few others thought South would rebid 3 NT over 3  with 4=3=3=3, but I don’t buy it. A holding of Q-x-x in the unbid suit seems too weak to suggest notrump after the major fit is known (3  should always show four trumps) so 4  is routine on any hand lacking slam interest.

The popular choice was to lead the Q, no doubt out of impulse, but logically this cannot be necessary. Whatever heart tricks you have coming will not disappear. (Evidently my composing strategy to include the 9 paid off, diverting many people.) Effectively, the Q and 3 are equivalent passive strokes and ranked by the voting. So is the J, for that matter, but the deception has no purpose and might cause partner to duck the A when South plays the king (from K-x) — hence, the low award.

Comments for the 9

John Lusky: Necessary if declarer has A-8-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x. I think partner would have led a singleton club, so the risk of crashing a singleton J or 10 seems minimal.

Patrice Piganeau: In case declarer has A-x-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Richard Stein: When South has 10-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x, we can knock out a club trick before South knocks out the rest of our control cards in the majors.

Jordi Sabate: It seems partner has the A. An interesting South hand for a defensive problem is 10-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x, in which case I have to start with the 9…to develop a club trick [because of] the 8 in dummy. We have two other entries ( A and Q) to lead clubs again; but if declarer has the 10, I must hope that he leads spades again before hearts.

John Reardon: The danger seems to be that a club loser will go on a long heart. Therefore, I should attack clubs, and I must lead the 9 in case South has, say, A-x-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Mike Sweet: The danger appears to be that South is 4=3=3=3 and will set up the long heart for a club discard. We will get any heart tricks we have coming. I lead the 9 to kill dummy’s eight. If partner is kind enough to hold the red kings and the J, we will prevail.

Gonzalo Goded: If partner has x-x-x K-x-x K-x-x-x J-x-x, we need to develop a club trick before declarer can enjoy the fourth heart. If declarer has the 10, the only way to do this is to start with the 9. Alas, this means that any opening lead by partner would have given a trick — so he shouldn’t be given the award. :) …

Leif-Erik Stabell: In Standard American, I suppose South can have 10-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x…

Imre Csiszar: If South has 4=3=3=3 distribution and West holds the J, this lead may enable us to win a club trick before declarer can set up dummy’s fourth heart.

Jim Munday: The surrounding play is just too tempting. Partner’s 3 would normally indicate a doubleton trump, but this is inconsistent with the bidding and play, so he probably elected not to echo with A-10-x.* This (hopefully) gives South something like: x-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x…

*Normal practice is to play the lowest trump first from A-x-x regardless of spots (unless touching, as A-6-5) because the ace will usually be won on the second round; hence, wasting the middle card might cost a trick by losing an opportunity to overruff. -RP

Lajos Linczmayer: If South has x-x-x-x A-K-x Q-9-x A-10-x, the contract still fails unless he clears hearts before leading the second trump.

Teymur Tahseen: Set up our club trick before it gets chucked on a heart.

Bluetooth Wuhan: Maybe South holds A-x-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Manuel Paulo: If South has A-10-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x, then hearts break well. It is urgent to attack the club suit, and leading the nine is mandatory.

David Lindop: We might need to establish a club trick before declarer can establish the fourth heart if South has something like 10-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x. Our heart winners aren’t going anywhere.

David Caprera: A club can go on a heart, but a heart can’t go on a club. The 9 protects against A-x-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Rolf Mattsson: Only club tricks can disappear (on the fourth heart if declarer is 4=3=3=3). I lead the nine to guard against A-10-x South. Partner will later lead through dummy’s 8-6. Partner better play the king if declarer ducks a heart from A-x-x.

Jean-Christophe Clement: To establish a club trick before dummy’s hearts get in the action.

Rob Stevens: As far as I can see, almost the only hand that matters is South holding 4=3=3=3 shape with A-10-x…

Cosmin Mindruta: If declarer is 4=3=3=3, I must get a club before he can discard it on the fourth heart.

Gareth Birdsall: Heart tricks won’t run away, but a club trick could if declarer is 4=3=3=3.

Mark Abraham: I expect we will win a heart and either the A or a second heart. The fourth defensive trick must be a club, and I must set it up before the 13th heart is high. The surrounding play of the 9 sets up our trick when partner has J-x-x or J-x…

Wuping Lu: South may have x-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Steve White: If declarer is 4=3=3=3, this is the killing defense. If not, I may be killing the defense.

Federico Goded: This is necessary to promote a trick in clubs. South probably has A-8-7-5 K-5-3 Q-9-5 A-10-x.

Hua Huang: If South has A-J-10-x, maybe he will finesse the 8 later.

Bruce Neill: In case South started with A-x-x-x A-x-x Q-x-x A-10-x…

Jing Liu: I know South has three diamonds from partner’s lead… so South’s shape should be 4=3=3=3 or 4=2=3=4. From the play at trick two, I doubt that South has the A; so he should have A-K and the A, and I must establish a club if South has 4=3=3=3 shape (before he can establish a heart trick). …

John Carroll: Catering for x-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x, with the danger of a club going on the fourth heart. Partner [probably] has the A and K, so the J is the only remaining useful card he can have. Declarer could still succeed by leading hearts before [trumps], but he is unlikely to do so. A positive score should be OK as many other players won’t reach game.

Daniel de Lind van Wijngaarden: Playing partner for A-x-x x-x-x K-x-x-x J-x-x.

Ronald Michaels: South is probably 4=2=3=4 but may be 4=3=3=3. (If he is 4=1=3=5, partner may have led his stiff club.) North is a little light for his game force; so partner may have 8-9 HCP and, assuming he has underled the K, he can have the A and J. Hence, with the favorable heart lie for declarer, we’re not going to beat him if he has 8-x-x-x A-K Q-x-x A-10-x-x. I must hope for 8-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x, so we can get two spades, one heart and a club, but I must attack clubs now before the long heart is set up. …

Nikolay Demirev: This seems to give nothing away, while it could gain a trick to compensate for partner’s lead for an above average matchpoint result when declarer holds 10-x-x-x A-K-x Q-x-x A-10-x.

Sandy McIlwain: Safest way to build a club trick, or two.

Hakan Peksen: Partner should have the A and K; so if he also has the J, I have to lead the 9 now in case South is 4=3=3=3.

Roger Morton: We probably have a heart or two to come, but there’s no hurry. The fourth heart may provide a discard for a club loser.

Bala Iyer: Dummy’s fourth heart is a threat, so I must attack clubs. …

Joon Pahk: Any possible heart trick we have can’t vanish, but a club trick could if declarer has, e.g., A-x-x and A-x-x. In case South has A-10-x-(x), I need to start with the nine.

Conor Moore: Lucky 7! I will try to establish a club before declarer can set up the fourth heart.

Sebastien Louveaux: I need a heart and a club trick to defeat the contract, but I must establish the club before declarer establishes hearts. The nine caters for A-10-x in South’s hand. [If South has 10-x-x-x and A-K-x], he could succeed by playing hearts before trumps; but I won’t make his guesses for him.

Andrew de Sosa: It looks like South started with A-K, K and A. I need to set up our club trick before it goes away on the long heart, and the 9 caters to partner holding only the J.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 2

Matchpoints None Vul	Q 5 4 A 8 4 3 2 K 10 8 5 2 —		WL Man WEST 3 Pass Pass	North Pass 4 Pass	You East Pass Dbl Dbl	South 4 5 All Pass
5 × South		J 9 7 6 — A Q J 9 4 K 6 3 2

Trick 1 W 2 S 3 S

Lead K A Q

2nd 4 4 5

3rd 7 2 3

4th A 2 K

Next Lead	Award	Votes	Percent
6	10	241	27
9	9	63	7
J	6	169	19
3	5	254	28
A	3	138	15
Q	1	44	5

Partner seems to have lost his mind, but it was reasonable to hope you had the A or Q. Your double of 4  was penalty, but a diamond lead from a doubleton might have established a trick for declarer. Anyway, what’s done is done; all you can do is pedal onward.

Partner’s up-the-line play in trumps indicates two, so South is marked with seven clubs, besides four spades from the lead. Could South have five spades? Highly unlikely, as he would probably have bid 4  (Michaels) or at least tried 4  after your double of 4 . Further, considering partner’s rash lead, South probably has the Q, so the full deal rates to be like this:

Matchpoints	Q 5 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	A 8 4 3 2		1 W	K	4	7	A
	K 10 8 5 2		2 S	A	4	2	2
	—		3 S	Q	5	3	K
K 3		J 9 7 6	4 E	3?	J	5	4
K J 10 9 7 6 5		—	5 S	10	6	8	6
6 3		A Q J 9 4	6 S	7	6	2	9
5 4		K 6 3 2	continued below…
	A 10 8 2
	Q
	7
5 × South	A Q J 10 9 8 7

Suppose you pursue the passive course and return a trump, waiting for your tricks in spades and diamonds. Declarer will draw trumps (pitching hearts from dummy) and lead a diamond, finessing into your hand to put you on lead in this position:

win all	Q 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	A		7 E	6	10	3	5
	K 10 8 5		8 S	9	7	5	4
	—		9 S	8	9	8	J
3		J 9 6	10 S	Q	10	A	?
K J 10 9 7		—	East is squeezed
3		A Q J 4
—		—
	10 8 2
	Q
	—
East leads	9 8 7

Ouch! You’re endplayed, forced to concede a trick with any return. Worse yet, you will be squeezed later to lose another trick. Suppose you return a low spade, won by the 10 (or 8, no difference). Two more trumps are cashed, then a heart to the ace catches you in a ruffout squeeze.* If instead you had returned a diamond, declarer would enjoy the K, then a similar squeeze follows.

*Also called a “trump squeeze,” but I never liked that terminology. The more descriptive “ruffout squeeze” was originated by George Coffin (I believe) but he reversed the order, calling it a “squeeze ruffout” — which technically may be better since the squeeze occurs before the ruffout.

To defeat the contract, you must return a spade (any but the jack) when you win the K. This doesn’t cost anything (declarer can always build a third spade trick) and prevents any embarrassments. If declarer ducks a diamond as before, you have a safe spade exit to break up any squeeze. The  6 is better than the nine, as it effects a two-trick set if partner has K-10 doubleton.

Even the J return, while disastrous in my example, is better than not leading a spade, because it beats the contract when partner has K-8 or K-10 doubleton. If you exit with a trump, you can survive only when partner has K-10.

Worst of all is to lead the Q, as declarer can then succeed with any hand, either by direct suit establishment with A-10-x-x, or a similar ruffout squeeze (without the count) with A-8-x-x. Leading the A then the queen is equally bad; however, no follow-up to the A was listed, so I had to score it better, since a spade shift saves the day if partner has K-10 — though it’s doubtful any A leaders had this in mind, so my award of 3 is generous.

Comments for the 6

John Lusky: I keep pounding away in spades to set up my jack (or J-9 if partner started with K-10 doubleton). Other plays place me at risk of a trump squeeze in spades and diamonds.

Richard Stein: It looks like South is 4=1=1=7, and a passive trump exit would leave me open to an endplay (by a diamond to the 10) and a squeeze later. Pounding spades will break it up.

“Pounding” is certainly the key — and a well-deserved denouement for partner after the session.

Dean Pokorny: This prevents a trump squeeze (as does the 9 return).

Tim DeLaney: Partner is almost certainly 2=7=2=2, and I hope his second spade is the 10. If so, it sets up two spade tricks for us, and declarer cannot get off the board without letting me cash them.

Jordi Sabate: A dangerous hand. It seems declarer has something like A-x-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. If I defend passively and lead a club, he will draw trumps and lead a diamond to the 10. Now any diamond or spade (if South has the 10) gives an immediate trick, and I cannot prevent a later spade-diamond squeeze. So it’s better to give a trick now by returning a spade, then I can lead another spade when I make my diamond trick. After that, there’s no squeeze. …

John Reardon: This is better than the 9 because I get an extra trick when West has the 10. It looks as though South has something like A-x-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-9-8-7.

Mike Sweet: It seems right to continue spades, and the six caters to partner holding the 10, which leads to a two-trick set. The jack may let declarer make the hand — and later tell stories about how to play A-10-8-x opposite Q-5-4 for no losers. …

Gonzalo Goded: On South’s likely 4=1=1=7 shape, I am going to be endplayed soon and…squeezed later. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: To guard against A-10-8-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. A passive club could be right if partner has only six hearts ( K-x K-J-10-9-x-x x-x-x x-x) but he doesn’t bid like that; does he?

Imre Csiszar: South appears to have four spades, a singleton Q and seven clubs, thus a singleton diamond. If South holds the 10, it may win now; but the “obvious” 3 lead would enable him (after drawing trump) to gain one trick by a diamond endplay, then another by a spade-diamond trump squeeze. The immediate spade lead, and another spade later, destroys the squeeze.

Jim Munday: Was partner not present during the bidding? A diamond void is impossible for partner, and he figures to be missing the Q for his nonstandard lead. This gives South A-?-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-9-8-7. A club back looks safe; but declarer can pull trumps and duck a diamond, putting me in the same boat. Better to get my spade play out of the way, so I can play another spade upon winning the diamond. I choose the 6 in case partner happens to have the 10.

Rainer Herrmann: South is probably 4=1=1=7, and I cannot escape an endplay anyway. Assuming my analysis is correct, a farsighted dummy-entry-destroying plan is needed. Otherwise, the ending could culminate into an endplay followed by a trump squeeze…

Weidong Yang: Aha! A doubled contract, so I’d better defeat it. South cannot have five spades, else he would have tried for a spade contract; so he is likely to be 4=1=1=7. If partner has the 10, this may set the contract two. If I defend wrongly, I will be the victim of an interesting squeeze play. …

Lajos Linczmayer: I hope partner has K-10 K-J-10-9-7-6-5 x-x 5-4, and we can score plus 300. If he does not have the 10, we score plus 100. …

Sylvain Brethes: Playing South for A-10-8-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. …

Teymur Tahseen: Giving declarer entry problems.

Bluetooth Wuhan: Avoid the endplay, and the 6 is better than the nine [if partner has the 10].

Manuel Paulo: If South has A-10-8-x Q x A-Q-J-10-9-8-7, as is likely, the J and any diamond leads are wrong, sure enough. It’s not so obvious that a club return allows declarer to succeed via a trump squeeze. I must lead a low spade…

Carolyn Ahlert: Endplayed now, or later. It’s better to lead spades right away so I can rid dummy of the Q when I am thrown in later with a diamond. Besides, there is still hope that my “Worst Leading Man” started with K-10, and we will get a two-trick set.

Rolf Mattsson: The bidding and lead place partner with 2=7=2=2. If he has K-8 and no K, I need to play the J to kill dummy’s entry. More likely, partner has K-x and the K, in which case I have to lead a low spade now to avoid a later trump squeeze. Why not hold up the K until the third round? Partner may signal with the Q, in which case I must try leading the J.

Rolf makes a valid point. While it’s unlikely partner would lead the K holding Q-J-10, it costs nothing to hold up the K. When creating the problem, I did not want to reveal partner showing out of clubs, lest it might simplify the solution. Therefore, you were forced into a minutely inferior play. -RP

Jean-Christophe Clement: To break the ruffout squeeze in diamonds and spades; and maybe West has the 10.

Charles Blair: Stops a ruffing squeeze if South has A-8-x-x K-x — A-Q-J-10-x-x-x.

Rob Stevens: I find it incredible that my ox would lead the K from a doubleton; but if it were a singleton, and if it were to matter, South would have refused to bid spades with five, and partner would have eight semisolid hearts. Declarer is going down; and if partner has the 10, we can beat it two. If I wait, my hand comes under too much pressure…

Connie Delisle: Declarer cannot get rid of his fourth spade. Give a little; gain a lot.

Dale Freeman: I will get endplayed later if I exit passively, and getting that Q off dummy seems correct. Therefore, I lead a spade now, and another when in with a diamond.

Cosmin Mindruta: To avoid a squeeze if South is 4=1=1=7.

Gareth Birdsall: I need to break up the trump squeeze by playing spades.

Wuping Lu: South seems to have A-10-x-x x x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. If I lead a club, I will be thrown in and squeezed later. …

Federico Goded: If I defend passively, declarer can execute a squeeze against me; and if West has K-10, this guarantees two down.

Eduard Munteanu: South probably has A-10-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. I lead spades now to kill dummy’s entry later. If I return a trump, declarer will draw trumps and lead diamond; then I will be forced to return spade, and declarer will have a trump squeeze.

Bruce Neill: Declarer appears to have A-x-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. This breaks up the looming trump squeeze between spades and diamonds. The  9 does the same; but what if partner has the 10?

Marcus Chiloarnus: If you can’t accept losing, you can’t win.

Jing Liu: South must have seven clubs and one heart. If he is 5=1=0=7, I can’t do anything. If he is 4=1=1=7 and I don’t return a spade, I may be squeezed in spades and diamonds. … Maybe partner has the 10, so returning the 6 might get plus 300. …

Wojtek Gawel: South is most probably 4=1=1=7, so I return a spade to break the communication needed to squeeze me.

Len Vishnevsky: Nice bidding. Only small spades win when South has A-10-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x, and the 6 gets an extra undertrick when South has A-8-3-2 Q 7 A-Q-J-10-9-8-7.

Neelotpal Sahai: … This is better than the 9 if partner has K-10 instead of K-x. A probable distribution for South is 4=1=1=7 (ruling out an eight-card heart suit with West, and nothing works if South is 5=1=0=7). … If I make a “safe” club return, declarer can remove trumps and play a diamond to the 10; then I must lead a spade, and in the last [four] cards I will be squeezed…

Julian Pottage: I need to lead a low spade if South is 4=1=1=7 to avoid a later throw-in and squeeze, and I prefer the six as this leads to two down if West has the 10.

Toby Kenney: Declarer clearly has seven clubs, and four or five spades given partner’s lead; but with five spades, he would have tried 4 , so he is 4=1=1=7, probably with the Q since partner did not lead a heart. Two spade leads prevent a trump squeeze.

Bala Iyer: Anti-squeeze defense! The a passive 3 fails. Either the 6 or 9 will work, but the six might [set the contract two tricks].

Carsten Kofoed: West didn’t lead a diamond, so South probably has a singleton diamond. I imagine South has A-8-x-x Q x A-Q-J-10-x-x-x. Down two seems good.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 3

Matchpoints None Vul	Q 8 4 4 3 A 6 5 2 K Q J 7		WL Man West Pass	North 4	You EAST 1 NT All Pass	South 3
4 South		A J 3 A K 5 J 9 8 A 9 5 2

Trick 1 W 2 S

Lead 4 Q

2nd J 2

3rd A 3

4th 6 A

Next Lead	Award	Votes	Percent
K	10	189	21
8	7	228	25
2	6	83	9
5	5	37	4
J	4	79	9
3	3	293	32

With anyone else on lead you might have doubled this contract, but your fears were well justified. Fastest-finger Freddie manages to establish two club tricks for declarer in one fell swoop. The only good news is that dummy didn’t have the 10 as well.

Counting declarer’s assets reveals eight winners (five hearts, two clubs and the A). If South has the K and K, he has 10; but partner probably has one of those cards — most likely the K, because declarer would usually opt for fast pitches if missing the K. The key is to hold your ground and not surrender a 10th trick. Don’t panic! Consider this defendable layout:

Matchpoints	Q 8 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	4 3		1 W	4	J	A	6
	A 6 5 2		2 S	Q	2	3	A
	K Q J 7		3 E	2?	5	8	Q
10 7 6 2		A J 3	continued below…
2		A K 5
K 7 3		J 9 8
10 8 6 4 3		A 9 5 2
	K 9 5
	Q J 10 9 8 7 6
	Q 10 4
4 South	—

After winning the A*, leading a spade is obviously a mistake, and leading the 8 costs if South guesses correctly to play the 10. Suppose you exit passively with a low club, on which South pitches a spade to reach the following position.

*Several respondents wondered why I had you win the A instead of the normal king. Essentially to obfuscate the high-card locations to declarer, though admittedly he will find out soon enough, so there’s not much to it.

win 8	Q 8 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	4		4 N	4!	3	K	7
	A 6 5 2		5 S	J	3	4	K
	K 7		6 E	5	10	2	2
10 7 6 2		A J 3	Declarer can succeed
—		K 5
K 7 3		J 9 8
10 6 3		9 5
	K 9
	J 10 9 8 7
	Q 10 4
North leads	—

When declarer leads a spade from dummy, and you are caught in a Morton’s fork. If you duck, declarer will win the K on air and drive out the K; then if you defend passively, he can pitch his spade on the K and succeed by guessing diamonds. If instead you hop with the A (or cash it later), dummy’s Q provides an extra winner to rid both diamond losers.

Alternatively, from the above diagram, declarer could win the K to pitch a diamond, then lead a spade (you must duck) to the king. When you next win the K, you can’t lead spades or diamonds, so declarer runs all his trumps to reach:

win 2	Q		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		11 S	9!	10	Q	A
	A 6		Declarer can succeed
	—
10		A
—		—
K 7		J 9
—		—
	9
	—
	Q 10
South leads	—

Finally, he will exit with a spade for the endplay. Note that if you kept two spades and blanked the J, declarer could instead run the Q.

To defeat the contract, you must prevent declarer from leading a spade from dummy early on, which means locking him in hand. Exit in trumps ( K and another) and declarer has no recourse. Note that if you err by leading the 5 first, declarer can endplay you with a third trump for the same denouement.

Even after the recommended defense, it seems declarer can put the defense under pressure by running trumps. Pressure, perhaps, but there is no fruition. West should abandon clubs and keep a spade stopper, and East simply retains parity with dummy. Even if declarer guesses the exact layout, he cannot succeed.

Many respondents brought out another advantage in the K lead: Partner is able to signal, though it is unlikely to provide any information you haven’t deduced. Unfortunately, some K leaders planned to lead a spade or diamond next according to partner’s discard, not realizing the importance of continuing trumps. Well, with multiple choice, you’re entitled to get lucky sometimes!

Of the remaining choices, I couldn’t find any effective difference between the 5, 8 and 2, so they are ranked by the voting for second through fourth place. The  J is clearly worse, not only in removing a potential diamond guess, but allowing an overtrick if South has K-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 K-10-x-x —. Worst of all is the 2, which surrenders the contract virtually any time South has the K.

Comments for the K

John Lusky: Since declarer did not go after quick pitches, I place him with the K. If he has K-x-x and Q-10-x, any play but continuing trumps gives him the entries for a Morton’s fork coup in the spade suit, else the opportunity to guess well in diamonds.

Patrice Piganeau: Any other return gives the contract if South holds K-x-x Q-J-10-x-x-x-x Q-10-x —.

Richard Stein: Declarer has the K, else he would have gone to the A to pitch spades on the clubs. I don’t want to give away a trick to… Q-10, nor give dummy an extra entry…

Tim DeLaney: The only safe lead. If partner has the K, he should signal it; but South probably has that card. I expect South’s hand to be something like K-9-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —. If I lead a club, declarer can pitch a spade then lead a spade toward the king, giving me a choice of evils.

Jordi Sabate: Any diamond can be dangerous if South has Q-10-(x)-(x). South must have the K, otherwise he would try to pitch some spades on the clubs, so a spade lead is also dangerous. I don’t want to lead clubs because South can have something like K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —, in which case he will pitch a spade and immediately lead a spade from dummy — then I’m dead whether I play the ace or not. The best I can do is lead the K and 5, waiting for my tricks.

Gonzalo Goded: Passive defense is needed in many cases, and my [lead] matters when South has K-x-x Q-J-10-x-x-x-x Q-10-x —. If I lead the 2 (or 5 and later the 2), dummy will have an extra entry to lead a spade for a [Morton’s fork] coup.

Leif-Erik Stabell: Anything else gives declarer the entry he needs to dummy with K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —.

Imre Csiszar: The attacking 8 lead loses if South has Q-10-x and guesses correctly. I cannot see how declarer can make the contract with this holding (lacking the 10) on passive defense if I keep clubs and spades as long as dummy does. …

Jim Munday: … A diamond shift is necessary [to beat the contract two] when South has K-x-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-6 Q-x-x —, as declarer is forced to take his diamond pitches immediately and can be tapped out from establishing the fourth spade. A diamond is disastrous when South has K-x-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10 —, or K-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —. … A club is disastrous if South has K-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-6 K-x-x-x —, as declarer pitches a spade and puts me on Morton’s fork with a low spade play from dummy. … Declarer is a favorite to have seven hearts, so I will go passive with K and a heart. …

Rainer Herrmann: South could be 3=7=3=0 or 4=7=2=0 with the K (based on his play) and Q-10. No squeeze will develop if I keep parity with dummy, and West holds on to the 10 tripleton and guards the K.

Lajos Linczmayer: … If declarer has K-9-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —, this passive defense beats the contract and results in a score better than average.

Sylvain Brethes: Then continue hearts, playing South for K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —.

Manuel Paulo: If South has K-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x — (or K-x-x-x and Q-10) he has nine tricks, and a spade or diamond lead gives him the 10th. Leading a club looks safe, but declarer wins via a strip squeeze. …

David Lindop: If South has K-10-x, or the K and K, there’s no defense; so give South something like K-x-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —. Passive defense should work fine.

David Caprera: … I don’t want to pin my defense on partner having the K. Give South K-9-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x, and I will have a Hobson’s choice [if I let declarer lead a spade from dummy]. …

Rolf Mattsson: If declarer needed spade discards, he would have taken them already. I’ll defend passively and hope for partner to have the 10 and K.

Jean-Christophe Clement: I don’t know clearly why, but any other solution may cost a trick — and West’s discard may help me to choose the right next card.

Charles Blair: Avoiding a Morton’s fork if South has K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —.

Gareth Birdsall: I’ll put declarer back in hand to break the pointed suits himself.

Mark Abraham: When it matters, South has K-9-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —, passive defense (exiting in trumps) is enough to beat the contract. …

Wuping Lu: Then the 5. South may have K-x-x Q-J-10-x-x-x-x Q-10-x.

Federico Goded: South has the K, else he would have led a diamond and won two clubs immediately. If South has K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —, it is better not to lead clubs because declarer could discard one spade and lead a spade before taking his second discard.

Hua Huang: The K seems to be with South; and if he has K-x-x Q-J-x-x-x-x-x Q-10-x —, I must win the K and lead the 5.

Eduard Munteanu: Declarer surely has the K and at least one diamond honor. If he has both kings, there is no defense; so I should defend against K-x-x Q-J-10-x-x-x-x Q-10-x —. A club return will give declarer a Morton’s fork against me. If I return the K and a heart, declarer has to make the first losing play.

Bruce Neill: Passive defense works against even as much as K-9-x Q-10-9-x-x-x-x Q-10-x —. A spade or diamond gives an immediate trick, and a club allows declarer to fork you by leading a spade.

This is a family web site. Watch your language!

Jing Liu: All I can do now is wait. I have A-K and the A, and any other return is dangerous. On my K, I may get some help from partner’s discard; but otherwise I will continue with the 5…

John Carroll: No need to panic; I will just continue hearts. Declarer only has 8-9 tricks and could have taken discards already. It is important not to lead a club as it would tighten up the endgame, e.g., with K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —, declarer can throw a spade and diamond then lead a spade to the king, followed by a squeeze and endplay.

Frances Hinden: It seems very passive to play three rounds of trumps, but anything else gives a trick away if South has the K and Q-10…

Len Vishnevsky: The best hand South can have is K-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x K-Q-x-x —, in which case the A goes away if I don’t take it (this is matchpoints). But wait! That’s not an option. …

Julian Wightwick: Then I shall just exit passively with the third trump. Presumably declarer has the K, since he did not take immediate spade pitches on the clubs. I now need partner to hold the 10 and K. I cannot afford a club lead, because then a spade from dummy would impale me on Morton’s fork.

Julian Pottage: On many layouts my play makes little difference, but K and another heart is the only way to beat the contract if South has Q-10 or Q-10-x.

Toby Kenney: If South has seven hearts, I’ll exit with a third heart, and leave declarer to go off with, e.g., K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x-x Q-10-x —. If only six hearts, I’ll switch to a diamond to break up a squeeze [e.g., K-x-x Q-J-10-9-x-x K-10-x-x].

Nikolay Demirev: If South has K-9-x Q-J-10-9-8-7-6 Q-10-x —, I must not give declarer an extra entry to dummy or an opportunity to guess diamonds. If I lead a club to dummy, South pitches a spade and leads a spade toward the king to catch me in a Morton’s fork. If declarer tries to run trumps, I can guard clubs against the above shown distribution.

Daniel Miller: Declarer didn’t pitch spades via the A, so he is likely to have the K and a problem in diamonds (e.g., 3=7=3=0 shape with Q-10-x). I won’t solve it for him

Roger Morton: I don’t want to bust open the diamond suit, or give dummy an extra entry for a Morton’s fork — my namesake! … I’ll just get off play with the third heart.

If Roger missed this he should stick to packaging salt, or open a chain of steakhouses.

Frans Buijsen: I will avoid being thrown in by playing all my trumps. I hope declarer has only one side trick in his hand, so the contract is one down.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 4

Matchpoints E-W Vul	10 4 8 4 A Q 10 6 4 K 5 4 2		WL Man WEST 4 Pass	North Pass Pass	You East Pass Pass	South 4
4 South		A 3 2 7 6 5 K J 9 8 2 Q 10

Trick 1 W 2 S

Lead 3 Q

2nd 4 5

3rd 5 4

4th 9 A

Next Lead	Award	Votes	Percent
9	10	145	16
2	8	191	21
7	6	192	21
2	5	196	22
10	3	98	11
Q	2	87	10

Looking at the first trick repeatedly in disbelief, you find it hard to control yourself. Did this moron really underlead his A-K-Q-J-10? Apparently he did, and it’s easy to deduce his motive* as a desperate attempt to get a diamond ruff. Note that he probably also held the 2 and chose the 3 as suit preference. Alas, all he really accomplished was to lose a heart trick.

*Perhaps his real motive was to make the newspaper column, as rash opening leads like this clearly buck the odds. Even if you had raised hearts, it would be anti-percentage. I’m a firm believer in making normal leads, and saving any brilliancies until after dummy appears.

Well, you can’t change water under the bridge, though it does occur to you as an ideal setting to drown partner. Declarer appears to have nine tricks: five spades (assuming K-Q-J-x-x-x), one heart (thanks to partner), one diamond and two clubs (assuming the A since partner wouldn’t preempt with solid hearts and an outside ace). The deal rates to be something like this:

Matchpoints	10 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	8 4		1 W	3	4	5	9
	A Q 10 6 4		2 S	Q	5	4	A
	K 5 4 2		3 E	7?	7	10	8
6 5		A 3 2	4 S	K	6	10	2
A K Q J 10 3 2		7 6 5	5 S	J	J	2	3
—		K J 9 8 2	6 S	9	Q	4	2
J 8 7 3		Q 10	continued below…
	K Q J 9 8 7
	9
	7 5 3
4 South	A 9 6

Giving partner a diamond ruff doesn’t seem to gain, so suppose you defend passively and return a heart. Oops. Not good enough. Declarer will ruff and lead trumps to reach this ending:

win 5	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		7 S	6	3	K	Q
	A Q 10 6		8 N	4	10	A	7
	K 5 4		9 S	3	K	6	8
—		—	10 E	6	8	2	5
A K 2		6	11 S	5	8	10	J
—		K J 9 8	East is endplayed
J 8 7 3		Q 10
	8
	—
	7 5 3
South leads	A 9 6

Declarer will also be aware of the diamond void (remember that first trick) so he will next cash both top clubs and lead a diamond, ducking the trick to you. Your only safe exit is a heart, ruffed, then a diamond is ducked for the final endplay.

Obviously, a trump exit leads to the same ending. Instead, you must give partner his ruff by leading a diamond. Partner then exits with a top heart, ruffed, and declarer leads all but one trump to reach this position:

win 5	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		8 S	5	2	6	8
	A Q 10 6		9 E	7	8	K	10
	K 5		Declarer fails
—		—
K 2		7
—		K J 8
J 8 7 3		Q 10
	8
	—
	7 5
South leads	A 9 6

A dead end, as you must get two tricks. If declarer ducks a diamond, a heart return forces his last trump.

Why the 9 instead of low? Suit preference! After partner ruffs, it is crucial to get that heart off the board. Partner might come to the same conclusion anyway, but that’s no excuse to be lazy and ask for a club return. If partner returned a club, declarer would win the A and lead trumps to reach this position:

win 4	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	8		9 S	6	7	K	6
	A Q 10		10 N	8	7	7	K
	K		11 S	5	8	10	J
—		—	East is endplayed
A K		7 6
—		K J 9
J 8 7		—
	7
	—
	7 5
South leads	9 6

Then a club to the king squeezes you. If you pitch a diamond, declarer will duck a diamond to establish a trick. If you pitch a heart, he will ruff the heart then duck a diamond to endplay you. Ouch.

Of the inferior non-diamond leads, best is a heart, which is the only successful return (including a diamond) in the unlikely event South has K-Q-9-8-7-6 9-2 7-5-3 A-J. A trump is next, doing nothing strategic but at least avoiding the overtrick a club surrenders if South has K-Q-9-8-7-6 9 7-5-3 A-J-9. I couldn’t find any real difference between the Q and 10, so they’re ranked by the voting.

Comments for the 9

John Lusky: Giving partner the opportunity to underlead A-K-Q-J-10-3-2 a second time. :) Seriously, his opening lead seems to place him with a diamond void, and I think I need a (high) heart back [to prevent a squeeze]. If I lead the 2, he might play me for A-Q since he does not know where the diamond honors are, and from his perspective declarer could be about to throw a club loser on a long diamond.

Patrice Piganeau: … Suit preference to encourage partner to lead a top heart after he ruffs the diamond.

Richard Stein: If partner would go through this hell for a diamond ruff, I honestly don’t see why I should refuse him. Meanwhile, I am sending the message not to lead a club — I’d like partner to wipe out the heart threat [to nullify any squeeze opportunities].

Dean Pokorny: Partner has to return the A after the ruff to prevent a strip-squeeze when South has the most probably 6=1=3=3 shape.

Tim DeLaney: Partner was angling for a ruff, and he can’t be void in clubs. I return the nine to direct partner to lead back a heart to squash the menace. … South’s hand (I hope): K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x-x.

Jordi Sabate: The spectacular lead by partner means that he has a diamond void, and I hope that he has at least two spades. It’s necessary that I lead diamonds now, otherwise declarer can ruff a heart, draw trumps and cash two clubs (he also knows the exact distribution) to leave A-Q-10-x-x x in North opposite x-x x-x-x x in hand. Now he ducks a diamond, and I have to lead my last heart, which he ruffs; then he ducks another diamond, and I’m dead. … I lead the 9 calling for a heart return [to kill dummy’s threat].

John Reardon: Let partner have his ruff and ask him to remove the heart threat. This will defeat the contract when partner has x-x A-K-Q-J-10-3-2 — J-x-x-x.

Gonzalo Goded: If partner has x-x A-K-Q-J-10-x-x — J-x-x-x, declarer already knows about the diamond void, and I can be endplayed… This gives away another trick if partner has 1=7=0=5 shape, but we deserve it then. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: To make sure partner continues hearts to remove the squeeze threat in dummy.

Imre Csiszar: Even an award-winning worst leader must have a void for that heart lead. If I don’t give partner the ruff, declarer may be able to throw me in twice…

Jim Munday: Can I arrange for partner to leave the table when the auction ends and return at trick two? Partner obviously has a diamond void; but does he have another trump? If partner has x A-K-Q-J-10-3-2 — x-x-x-x-x, a diamond return is disastrous as it rectifies the count to squeeze partner for 12 tricks!… A heart lead kills the threat in dummy and I can wait for two diamond tricks, but declarer is always making 10 tricks. … It seems mandatory to shoot for a plus score after partner’s lead, so I must assume he has a second trump. Since I want partner to play a heart after ruffing to kill the squeeze [threat], I return the 9.

Weidong Yang: Declarer will get home if he can throw me in twice in diamonds, so I must give partner a diamond ruff as indicated by his opening lead. I will signal partner for a heart return to kill the 8 as a threat.

Lajos Linczmayer: I hope South has K-Q-J-9-8-6 9 7-5-3 A-9-x, in which case only the diamond ruff and a heart return defeats the contract. If West had attacked with A-K, it would not be easy to find the diamond ruff necessary for two down.

Sylvain Brethes: Partner has underled A-K-Q-J-10-3-2? … OK, I’ll assume he wants a diamond ruff (note the 3) and lead the 9 to ask for a heart return to destroy a squeeze…

Bluetooth Wuhan: Let partner ruff, and this is better than the 2 to [erase] the 8 as a squeeze threat.

Manuel Paulo: If South has K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 7-5-3 A-x-x, after winning the first trick he counts four losers, and keeping the diamond matrix A-Q-10 opposite x-x-x will eliminate one of the losers with an endplay. I must lead a low diamond, and I choose the nine as suit preference, so partner will return a heart after the ruff.

David Lindop: OK, I better give partner a diamond ruff; and I’ll lead high to remind him to return a high heart to [erase the threat].

David Caprera: I am trusting partner on this one, giving declarer K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-J-x. If I am wrong, declarer is about to take the rest, e.g., K-Q-J-x-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x. …I hope partner doesn’t return the 2 in response to my request for a heart switch. :) Not returning a diamond is double suicide: (1) Partner will kill me for not giving him the ruff after having made that lead, and…(2) declarer is going to strip the hand and throw me in. Returning the 2 is partnercide…

Carolyn Ahlert: Assuming West is void and ruffs the diamond, I don’t want a crazy club lead back; so I lead the 9… I will save a heart as my exit card to the bitter end.

Rolf Mattsson: Give partner his ruff to avoid being endplayed in diamonds. I want partner to return a heart to remove dummy’s heart, otherwise I can be strip-squeezed — declarer must not have the option to ruff a heart [or duck a diamond] when he enters dummy later with the K. …

Charles Blair: If South has K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x-x, the diamond ruff avoids my being thrown in twice. If partner doesn’t return a (high) heart, declarer can cash all but one trump, then A-K [and duck a diamond].

Barry Goren: I must keep my third heart at all costs.

Gareth Birdsall: If I don’t give partner his ruff, it seems likely I’ll be endplayed out of a diamond trick later. A club return can’t be good for us, so I’ll return the 9.

Wuping Lu: Declarer must have K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x-x, so I give partner his ruff and ask for a heart return to avoid an endplay.

Hua Huang: This tells partner to return a heart, which destroys the ending for declarer. (Without a heart return, the ending is 8 A-Q-10 K opposite x x-x x-x, then a club to the king squeezes me with 7-6 K-J-8.)

Bruce Neill: Partner seems to be looking for a diamond ruff, so I give it to him. I’ll ask for a heart back to get rid of dummy’s menace…

Marcus Chiloarnus: Bridge players occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened.

Jing Liu: Partner wants a ruff, so South probably has K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x-x. I must return a diamond to avoid being thrown in… and after partner ruffs, he must return a heart; else I will be squeezed and then thrown in. So I return 9 as suit preference.

John Carroll: Give partner a ruff and ask for a heart continuation. The ruff might not look necessary, but an endplay is very likely. [Ending described]. It is also important for partner to return a heart, otherwise declarer comes down to 8 A-Q-10 K opposite x x-x x-x, and a club to the king squeezes me out of a heart; then a heart ruff and diamond endplay.

Jim Wiitala: When experts underlead honors in books to get a ruff, they are heroes; but in my world it costs a trick. I better give partner the ruff now…and I lead the 9 to discourage clubs back.

Frances Hinden: I need to give partner his diamond ruff and eliminate the heart menace, either to stop a squeeze or prevent my getting thrown in.

Toby Kenney: Partner clearly has a diamond void, so I’ll give him a ruff to avoid being endplayed twice; and he should switch to the A to remove the menace from dummy.

Dave Setterholm: I hope partner ruffs and returns a high heart to break any squeeze [or endplay] — I’d hate to see declarer make two heart tricks with a stiff nine opposite 8-4 doubleton.

Nikolay Demirev: Can I be endplayed in diamonds? Yes! It’s enough for declarer to hold K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 7-5-3 A-9-x. I signal for a heart return, as a club could give declarer (holding A-J-x) 11 tricks on simple heart-club squeeze.

Karl Barth: Partner is looking for a diamond ruff, so I give it to him and tell him not to expect a club entry.

Mike Phillips: Partner’s underlead shows he is looking for a ruff, and the lead of the 3 (rather than the two) points to diamonds. Leading the 2 would ask for a club back, which is no good; hence, the 9…

Richard Aronson: Would partner open 4 red-vs-white with seven running hearts and out? He’s the worst leading man, not the worst bidding man.* Or is he? … After too many ruminations, I decided that underleading all the hearts without at least two trumps is too insane to consider, [so I give partner a ruff] with the 9 for a heart continuation. …

*To each his own, but 4 seems perfect to me with 7-4 shape. A side four-card suit (even worthless) warrants an extra playing trick, so West is within two tricks of his bid — the usual criterion for a preempt at unfavorable vulnerability. -RP

Frans Buijsen: Partner must be void in diamonds, and I want a heart return to [prevent a squeeze or endplay].

Stephen Fischer: We have no chance to recover if partner has a singleton spade, [so I hope] South has K-Q-J-x-x-x 9 x-x-x A-x-x. … I can be endplayed [if I don’t] give partner his ruff now, and I might as well ask for a heart return.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 5

Matchpoints None Vul	K 3 A J 8 2 K 10 4 2 J 9 2		WL Man West Pass Pass	North 2 3 NT	You East Pass All Pass	SOUTH 1 NT 2
3 NT South		Q 10 9 8 Q 10 9 7 6 5 Q 10 4

Trick 1 W 2 S

Lead Q 4

2nd 2 5

3rd 5 J

4th A Q

Next Lead	Award	Votes	Percent
10	10	322	35
4	9	241	27
10	8	160	18
6	7	130	14
Q	5	33	4
7	1	23	3

There always seems to be one problem in each play contest that’s a stickler to analyze, and this is it. The major-suit distribution is easy to predict: South probably has four spades and three hearts.* This leaves him with either 3-3 in the minors, or two diamonds and four clubs. (Note that 4-2 the other way would mean partner led from Q-J-x with five clubs.)

*Partner’s play of the 5 is consistent with a holding of 5-3, K-5 or K-6-5, but the last is remote because declarer would hardly lead hearts first with 4-3 doubleton. Hence, partner should have the doubleton, and it’s probably not K-5 because South might (should?) play hearts differently with 6-4-3, i.e., duck the first round (or finesse the eight) to cater to honor-doubleton in East.

The main difficulty in this problem is pinpointing the objective: Is it to defeat 3 NT? Or to win the most tricks, with overtricks an important concern? When I created this problem, I had the following deal in mind:

Matchpoints	K 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	A J 8 2		1 W	Q	2	5	A
	K 10 4 2		2 S	4	5	J	Q
	J 9 2		3 E	10	4	2	3
J 5 2		Q 10 9 8	4 E	8	6	5	K
5 3		Q 10 9 7	5 N	2	4	7	8
Q J 9 8		6 5	6 W	J	9	9	A
K 8 6 3		Q 10 4	continued below…
	A 7 6 4
	K 6 4
	A 7 3
3 NT South	A 7 5

After capturing the J with the queen, suppose you defend passively by returning a spade, ducked, then a spade to the king. Declarer next ducks a club to advance the play, and a third spade is won by the ace as dummy pitches a club. This leaves the following ending:

NT win 6	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	A 8 2		7 S	3	8	10	6
	K 10 4		8 N	K	10	7	9
	J		9 N	4!	Q	5	J
—		Q	10 W	3	2	7	K
3		10 9 7	11 S	A	3	J	?
J 9 8		6	East is squeezed
K 6 3		Q 10
	7
	K 6
	7 3
South leads	A 5

Declarer now can make the contract by winning two diamonds with the finesse and losing a diamond. You are forced to pitch both clubs, then you’ll be squeezed in the majors when South wins the A. Partner can do nothing to prevent it. In fact, from the moment you shifted to a spade, declarer could not be stopped from making the contract.

Although counterintuitive, the killing defense is to shift to a low club when you win the Q. Declarer will duck this to the king, then a club return fetches the 10 and ace. If declarer then tries to squeeze you by winning two diamonds, you can pitch a spade because he cannot establish his fourth spade without letting West on lead to cash the setting tricks. It also wouldn’t help declarer to hold up in clubs; you can always evade a squeeze.

If this were IMPs, the club shift would be a clear winner, as it’s the only realistic chance to beat the contract. But no-o-o-o, I had to make it matchpoints, creating a side dish of pasta with salad and breadsticks — yum, it’s Olive Garden tonight. Closer scrutiny shows there are many more layouts that favor a spade lead. Consider this similar deal:

Matchpoints	K 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	A J 8 2		1 W	Q	2	5	A
	K 10 4 2		2 S	4	5	J	Q
	J 9 2		3 E	4?	5	K	2
7 5 2		Q 10 9 8	4 W	3	9	10	A
5 3		Q 10 9 7	5 S	3	8	10	6
Q J 9 8		6 5	6 N	K	8	7	9
K 7 6 3		Q 10 4	7 N	K	9	4	2
	A J 6 4		8 N	3	10	J	5
	K 6 4		9 S	A	7	J	Q
	A 7 3		10 S	6	6	4	?
3 NT South	A 8 5		East is squeezed

You’re not beating this one! After winning the Q, if you shift to a low club as necessary before, declarer will duck it to partner’s king and win the club continuation. Next he will win two diamonds to squeeze you in three suits; and worse, the squeeze will repeat to give declarer 11 tricks. Ouch.

If the above were the only case, I’d still prefer the club lead, as holding declarer to 10 tricks instead of 11 is not exactly a windfall. But a club lead costs in many other layouts, e.g., South may have the K (with or without the ace) and/or a four-card club suit (partner will often have five diamonds). In the long run, a spade shift produces more tricks, which has to be the deciding factor at matchpoints.*

*A few respondents chose to go all out with the club shift because of partner’s lead, i.e., trying to recover what was already lost. Unfortunately, there is no sound basis for this as partner’s lead was probably normal. The same situation should arise at most other tables, so every trick counts.

The 10, while inferior* to a spade, is also strong. With perfect defense thereafter, declarer cannot rectify the count for the squeeze in my first example, but he can endplay you instead: Win  K; finesse 10; win K; K; duck a spade, which West wins to lead a club, ducked; Q (South cannot afford to duck) to ace; A; spade.

*Among the common layouts, a spade gains when South has A-J-x-x K-6-4 A-x-x K-x-x; and a heart gains when South has A-J-x-x K-6-4 A-x K-x-x-x. The latter, however, is improbable based on declarer’s play (he would surely start clubs before taking the heart finesse). Further, the 10 is unrevealing (declarer might even play for the Q offside), while the 10 suggests your exact holding.

What about just returning partner’s suit? The 6 is also pretty good, essentially losing (to a spade or the 10) only if South has A-8-7, then declarer can win four diamond tricks (note the 4 establishes) and squeeze you.

Another interesting but bizarre lead is the Q. Superficially this looks silly, but declarer will often play you for K-Q-10 and duck, in which case it works as well as a low club in the first example, or a spade in the second. Will the cat or mouse win? Who knows. On another planet it might deserve better, but on Earth it will have to settle for the Panasonic Award — just slightly ahead of our time.

With considerations of setting the contract versus stopping overtricks, as well as psychological tactics, this was a tough problem to score. The  10 arguably deserves second place, but it’s hard appreciate second-best plays to stop overtricks. Therefore, those who went for the gusto to set the contract get the runner-up spot. Curiously, my ranking order also matched the voting, coincidental but comforting.

As usual with problems that turn out to be close calls, I was generous with the awards — maybe too generous. The exception being the 7, for which I found no merit, usually just offering a free trick.

Comments for the 10

Ding-Hwa Hsieh: It is a club or no-club decision. A club return will blow one or two tricks on these spade-club combinations: A-J-x-x A-8-x, or A-J-x-x K-x-x. It will gain only against: A-x-x-x A-x-x, and versus: J-x-x-x A-K-x, it makes no difference if declarer plays it right.

John Lusky: This may help us knock out communication in a potential central suit for a double squeeze (if partner has J-x-x), or it may force declarer to make an early decision in the spade suit.

Dean Pokorny: This prevents declarer from making 11 tricks when holding A-J-x-x x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x…

Gonzalo Goded: Failed again. I suppose the Q will be a standard lead at other tables, so I don’t want to make any desperate move — so no club lead, and the 7 will give up a trick easily (declarer won’t rise with the king since he lacks entries to his hand). The  10 might lead to a self-endplay (maybe after being squeezed on the third diamond). Why the 10? Declarer will take the finesse sooner or later, and this breaks some communications; while a diamond will make declarer smile if he holds A-8-7. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: Limiting the number of overtricks seems a reasonable target. With A-J-x-x x-x-x A-x-x A-K-x in the South hand, I will have an embarrassing discard to make on the third round of diamonds unless I can disturb the communication.

Jouko Paganus: South’s hand: A-J-x-x K-6-4 A-x A-x-x-x, or possibly a third diamond and only three clubs. Best is to try to break communications, or fool declarer.

Imre Csiszar: Difficult; I could not analyze the complex squeeze possibilities. Perhaps a spade lead might cause entry problems.

Jim Munday: Partner should have good spots for leading the queen, probably Q-J-9-8-x. There is room for him to have just one ace or king, and he might have the J. I will be forced to part with a club on the third diamond, so as an optimist I will give partner a club honor. Thus, South has something like (1) A-x-x-x K-x-x A-x A-x-x-x, or (2) A-J-x-x K-x-x A-x K-x-x-x. On a diamond return, declarer can establish a fourth club, as partner can only gain the lead once and cannot establish diamonds. Declarer always has two hearts and three diamonds; and he will get two spades and two clubs with Hand 1, or three spades and one club with Hand 2. A heart return seems likely to bear fruit as well (certainly not the 7). …

Rainer Herrmann: A discovery play to find out in which black suit partner holds a high card, and what black suit to discard from on the third diamond.

Jean-Christophe Clement: Does West have the K or K? … I may be threatened by a three-suit squeeze, so I will try to break it by playing spades twice.

David Grainger: At IMPs I’d lead the 4 in case partner has K-x-x-x and the J, and declarer feels like being very double-dummy by ducking a spade shift and playing three rounds of diamonds to squeeze me. This seems too obscure to play for at matchpoints…

Mark Abraham: We can’t set up diamonds with partner’s entries, so I return a suit where we have an upside (partner with either honor) and no serious downside (declarer could do this finesse himself). The  10 is also OK but only defers the problem.

Eduard Munteanu: Trying to destroy declarer’s spade communication for a squeeze. South’s probable hand: A-J-x-x K-x-x A-x A-x-x-x (or the K instead of the ace, or without the J).

Neelotpal Sahai: Prima facie, it looks like if diamonds are played, I will be under pressure to discard. … Spades is the transportation suit from dummy to hand, so I should try to break this communication. Additionally, partner may have the J.

Julian Wightwick: Partner can have at most 4 more points besides his presumed J. If he has those 4 points, and at least four diamonds, declarer has only eight obvious tricks, plus various squeeze and endplay possibilities. For example, if partner has the A and South A-J, declarer can cash three spades and two hearts, then throw partner in with a diamond; but I don’t see why he wouldn’t just play on clubs in that case. I’ll just lead my suit in case it’s a race to stop declarer from setting up the long club.

Douglas Ogozaly: I hope partner has the A and ducks.

Leo Yuan: I hope partner has the J.

And I hope partner has the spade queen… so I can junk this irritating problem as a misdeal.

Jorge Castanheira: The problem is what to discard on the third diamond. If South has A-J, K and A, he cannot have both A-K; then I can safely discard my small club.

Gerald Cohen: Trying not to give up a trick.

Petko Boukov: … Diamonds are a dead end because I can only lead them once, and partner has at most one side entry…

Adrian Petculescu: Partner has 5-7 HCP. Besides Q-J, he could have the A, A, K, or both K and J. (The K is also possible; but would South lead hearts first without the king?) In all cases, the 10 seems to leave South with his minimum number of tricks.

Sandy McIlwain: I think declarer’s entry situation will get tight before I get squeezed.

Karl Barth: This can’t hurt, and it may win big.

Richard Aronson: Safe exits are at a premium. I might as well go for the exit card that cannot hurt…and could set up more tricks, especially if partner has [the A].

Nigel Marlow: Partner is marked with one of the three top black cards in addition to the Q-J. A spade shift [seems safest].

Frans Buijsen: Partner has one king. If it’s the K, I need to break up South’s entry position, or I will get squeezed in three suits on the third diamond.

Anant Rajani: I need partner to have the J for two spade tricks, one heart and two club tricks.

Bala Iyer: Anti-endplay defense is called for, and the key is not to touch clubs.

Sandy Barnes: If partner does not have the [ A], the party may be over since I get squeezed on the third diamond.

Joon Pahk: I can already feel the triple squeeze coming. The only hope is that partner has the [ A, or that I can break communication].

Sebastien Louveaux: If partner has nothing in spades, declarer will have an easy time setting up a major-suit squeeze.

George Klemic: Partner rates to have 2-4 points outside diamonds. There’s no rush to hit any particular card, but the A would be nice.

Pieter Geerkens: Maybe I can break up the impending squeeze by forcing declarer to use his spade entries prematurely.

Don Hinchey: Endplayed at trick three! With a presumed J-x-x-x K-x-x A-x-x A-K-x, declarer has eight tricks, with a ninth to come via an [endplay] — unless partner is put on play for a heart lead.

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

Problem 6

Matchpoints Both Vul	K Q K 10 8 4 K 8 3 2 A Q 4		WL Man West Pass	NORTH 1 NT Pass	You East Pass Pass	South 4 1
4 South		A 7 2 7 6 5 3 J 10 4 J 10 8

Trick 1 W 2 S

Lead A 5

2nd 4 9

3rd 3 Q

4th 3 ?

1. no transfers — need West on lead!

Defense	Award	Votes	Percent
C. Win A; lead J	10	140	15
F. Duck twice	8	174	19
D. Win A; lead J	7	144	16
A. Win A; lead 2	5	221	24
B. Win A; lead 5	4	120	13
E. Duck; win next spade	3	110	12

Wow. Over 100 votes for each option. Maybe I deserve a PavCo Award for the “most plausible choices.” Usually, at least one of the choices can be quickly dismissed, but not here. This problem easily sets the record for the most votes for the least popular answer — though not by percentage, which December 2002, Problem 5, still holds by less than 1/10 of a percent.

Thankfully, this is your last board with Golden Arm, as he proves once again that if there’s any way to blow a trick, he’ll find it. This time it appears to be just a matter of overtricks, since 4  must be cold if South has anything resembling his bid. Further, it doesn’t seem to matter what you do.

How many tricks does declarer have? With a jack-high suit at best, he surely has the A. With the Q or K as well, he has at least 11 tricks, and nothing you do can affect the outcome.* Therefore, assume partner has the Q and K, which gives declarer 10 tricks with the club finesse. He can always set up an 11th trick with dummy’s fourth diamond (or his long club if he has four clubs); but once again, there seems no way to win 12 (barring fluke shapes) no matter what you do.

*With J-8-x-x-x-x — A-x-x K-x-x-x, he has 12 tricks. With J-8-x-x-x-x — A-x-x-x K-x-x, he has 11 tricks; and there is no squeeze since you can guard diamonds. Similarly, with J-8-x-x-x-x — A-Q-x x-x-x-x (or A-Q-x-x x-x-x), he has 12 tricks; and with J-8-x-x-x-x — A-Q x-x-x-x-x, only 11.

So far I’ve only considered six-card spade suits, but South could easily have seven. Then he will have 11 tricks (assuming the A) and be playing for 12. With J-10-8-x-x-x-x — A-x-x x-x-x, 12 tricks are easy, since a diamond can be pitched on the K, then the long diamond will establish with a ruff. But what if South’s minors are 4-2? Consider this layout:

Matchpoints	K Q		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	K 10 8 4		1 W	A	4	3	3
	K 8 3 2		2 S	5	9	Q	A
	A Q 4		3 E	2?	4	2	K
9		A 7 2	4 N	K	5	2	9
A Q J 9 2		7 6 5 3	5 N	8	6	6	J
Q 9 6 5		J 10 4	6 S	J	7	4	7
K 9 7		J 10 8	continued below…
	J 10 8 6 5 4 3
	—
	A 7
4 South	6 5 3 2

Suppose you win the A and exit passively with a trump. Declarer will then cash the K (pitching a club), ruff a heart, and draw your last trump to reach this position:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	10		7 S	10	9	2	7
	K 8 3 2		8 S	3	K	A	8
	A Q		9 N	Q	10	5	5
—		—	10 N	3	4	A	6
Q		7	11 S	8!	9	10	?
Q 9 6 5		J 10 4	East is squeezed
K 9		J 10 8
	10 8
	—
	A 7
South leads	6 5 3

Note that West had to let go his club stopper to keep diamond length equal to dummy. On the next trump* West pitches the 9, North a diamond, and East a heart. Then comes the A, Q and A, followed by the last trump for a simultaneous double squeeze — 12 tricks. I suppose the only good news is that, with Wonder Boy on lead, South didn’t bid the slam.

*Optionally, declarer could win two clubs with a finesse, cross to the A, and lead both trumps.

So what can you do about it? Declarer’s big edge was his flexible communication in diamonds, and you can upset this with a diamond lead when you win the A. Suppose declarer wins the A, K, K, heart ruff, and draws your last trump as before. The position is now:

win all	—		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	10		8 S	10	9	?
	K 8 3		Declarer wins only 11 tricks
	A Q
—		—
Q		7
Q 9 5		10 4
K 9		J 10 8
	10 8
	—
	7
South leads	6 5 3

A dead end. If declarer leads another trump dummy is squeezed. If instead he wins two clubs, he cannot return to hand without removing the K entry or eliminating the heart threat. It would not have helped declarer to win two club tricks early, because West then can protect clubs and hearts (no entry, no squeeze) and East can protect diamonds (the fourth diamond is not a threat because dummy has no outside entry). In short, there is no route to 12 tricks after a diamond return.

What about other defenses? It should be apparent that a heart or club return does not help, as the play is essentially the same as after a spade. What about winning the second spade and returning a diamond? Not quite good enough, as declarer will have an extra heart in dummy for the crucial return to hand late in the play.

Curiously, ducking both spades also defeats the squeeze. Declarer must use the A or a heart ruff to return to hand, then you can remove the K or heart threat when you win the A. Alas, this opens another path to 12 tricks: Declarer can elope with all his trumps. Even so, I decided this deserved second place because it gives declarer a losing option: Rather than assume the K onside, which is necessary for the elopement, he could play for the K offside and try to endplay you. (After any other defense, this endplay option disappears.)

Among choices A, B, D and E, I couldn’t find any plausible layout where one gains over another, so they are ranked by the voting.* Several respondents correctly noted that a club shift (with or without ducking in spades) will defeat a double squeeze if South has J-10-8-x-x-x-x — A-9-7-6-5 x, but I dismissed this since I don’t believe West would lead the A from 9 A-Q-J-9-2 Q K-x-x-x-x-x (either the Q or a club would be more reasonable).

*Correction 5-5-04. My original analysis was based on South having the A or K, but on reconsideration I suppose it is plausible that South has neither, e.g., some would bid 4  with J-10-8-x-x-x-x — Q-x-x x-x-x (particularly with this West on lead). Against that hand, Choice D is the clear winner, so it has been upgraded from 5 to 7 into third place. Accordingly, Choice A is dropped from 6 to 5 into fourth. Arguably, Choice E should also be upgraded, but no one who commented on it cited this case; hence to presume a club shift with four suits to choose is illogical; so that score stands.

Comments for C. Win A; lead J

John Lusky: This is the only defense if declarer has J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x. Ducking twice would defeat the squeeze but allow a trump elopement. …

Patrice Piganeau: No way to beat the contract. Best is to return a diamond to kill a double squeeze for the 12th trick if South has J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x.

Richard Stein: Return dummy’s weakest suit and hope something good happens.

Dean Pokorny: Prevents declarer making 12 tricks on a double squeeze when he holds J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x.

Tim DeLaney: It’s hard to find a layout where it makes any difference what I do; but if South has J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x, I need to lead a diamond to disrupt the entry position for a compound squeeze. Fortunately, partner’s lead then didn’t cost, and we hold declarer to 11 tricks.

John Reardon: The time it makes a difference is when South has J-10-8-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x, and I must stop the impending squeeze to save an overtrick.

Weidong Yang: South [probably] has seven spades; but how are his six minor cards split? It’s true he may make 4  with 7=0=3=3 and very few HCP, but it’s too crazy to bid 4  with such a hand. I would rather play him for 7=0=1=5 and get the A immediately. Although declarer could have reached dummy in clubs, this [would have been risky]. …

David Caprera: If declarer is J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x, this [defeats a compound squeeze]. And if I duck two spades, he won’t even need no stinkin’ squeeze.

Rob Stevens: As far as I can see, the only time this matters (consistent with the bidding and lead) is when South has a 7=0=2=4 pattern with the A and no K. Then, although a normal compound squeeze will fail (West abandons diamonds), the extra threat of ruffing out a diamond [allows declarer to succeed if I don’t attack diamonds]. Surely, partner would have led a stiff Q, so I don’t think this can cost.

Or Shoham: Why not? Even if I’m wrong, partner deserves a bad lead to follow a bad lead. At this point, I’d rather the opponents just claim so I can go home and find a new partner.

Wuping Lu: Declarer may have J-10-x-x-x-x-x — A-x x-x-x-x, and only winning the A and leading the J will destroy the compound squeeze.

Marcus Chiloarnus: I have found that the best way to give advice to my partner is to find out what he wants and advise him to do it.

And my goal in publishing your comments is some day to understand what you’re talking about.

Frances Hinden: Another hand to attack entries for a potential double squeeze to stop 12 tricks, but it’s a guess how many tricks we are aiming at. Establishing a club trick could be necessary if declarer has little outside spades, but I think 7=0=2=4 with A-x is more likely.

Daniel Miller: … Could South have 6=0=6=1 shape and partner a diamond void? …

Final Notes

I hope you enjoyed the 2004 PavCo Awards and were not called to the podium. Thanks to all who participated and especially those who offered kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected from those above average (top 428 in this edition) and on each problem only those supporting the correct solution or close seconds. While this might be considered biased, I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are flawed. On this basis, I included over 70 percent of the eligible comments. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly except for corrections in spelling and grammar. Where I have included only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) indicates where text was cut. Text in [brackets] was supplied by me to summarize a cut portion or fix an omission. Comments are listed in order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing. I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems, assisted by comments received, has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

After the session, your partner walks over and says, “Watch this!”
Then he reaches under his chin to peel away a latex mask. What the…
But of course… you should have known all along! It’s Fritz!

Also feeling the misery:

Lois Stuart: I never want to play with this partner again. It was torture!

Bill Powell: I must congratulate partner — it’s not easy to make my opening leads look good.

Frans Buijsen: What an excellent partner! So gallantly he insures that he won’t have to blame me for the defense.

Stu Goodgold: Who’s your accounting firm that will total the ballots and put the winners’ names in a hermetically sealed envelope?

Richard Stein: I can already see inside the sealed envelope: “Worst Defender in a Supporting Role” — the PavCo goes to Richard Stein. Oh well; maybe I can sell that thing for some decent money!

Analyses 7X80 Main Challenge

Scores Top The Worst Leading Man

© 2004 Richard Pavlicek