Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Visions of Sugar Plums

Scores  by Richard Pavlicek

These six play problems were published on the Internet in December 2002 as a contest open to all bridge players. As declarer, all you had to do was choose your play from the choices offered.

Problem 1

2

3

4

5

6

Final Notes

Wojtek Siwiec Wins!

This contest had 637 participants from 94 locations, and the average score was 40.64. Congratulations to Wojtek Siwiec (Poland) who was the first of three with perfect scores. Wojtek is a past winner (August 2001) and was perfect in my last contest as well. Also scoring 60 were Tonci Tomic (Croatia), another past winner (June 2002); and Alexei Vinogradov (Germany). Close behind with 59 were Zahary Zahariev (Bulgaria); Gabriel Nita-Saguna (Willowdale, Ontario); Sergey Kustarov (Russia); and Rob Balas (United States).

The problems were more difficult than usual month, and the healthy average of 40.65 is impressive. I thought my “sugarplum leads” and the holiday spirit might catch more people off guard, but most of you were on the ball, at least choosing good plays if not the theoretically best ones.

In the overall rankings, Tonci Tomic soared into the lead with a 59.00 average. Remarkably, this includes 60s in the last three contests he entered, so one more 60 would make that his average. Scary. Close behind at 58.75 are two perennial contenders, Gabriel Nita-Saguna and N. Scott Cardell (Pullman, Washington). In fourth place with 58.50 is previous leader John Reardon (London, England).

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and your opponents use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each problem offered six plausible lines of play. The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which may be influenced by comments received.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 1

IMPs N-S Vul	5 4 J 10 2 7 5 3 A K Q J 5		West 1 All Pass	North 3	EAST Pass Pass	South 1 4
Lead: 10		East plays 4
4 South	A 7 3 2 A K Q 9 8 Q J 10 2 —

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Win A-K (pitch diamonds)	10	105	16
E. Win A (pitch spade); A; J	9	304	48
C. Win A-K (pitch spades)	7	38	6
F. Win A (pitch spade); lead 3	5	73	11
B. Win A-K-Q (pitch diamonds)	3	68	11
A. Win A-K-Q (pitch spades)	2	51	8

The opening lead is a welcome sight, but don’t be overconfident. The lack of communication with dummy after trumps are drawn leaves no sure path to success. Of course, if trumps break 3-2, you could ring up an overtrick with Line E; but if that were the case, you would never have seen this problem. The only gifts you get this month are on the opening lead. After that, not even a gingerbread crumb!

What do you make of the lead? The first reaction is to fear a singleton; but then you realize that clubs were never bid, and West is just leading an unbid suit. The 10 hardly suggests a short suit, as it is routine from many 10-9 holdings regardless of length. Further, a stiff club is even less likely than normal percentages because East failed to open 3 .*

*A preempt with a topless seven-card suit may be appalling to some, but white-vs-red it would be the norm for most tournament players, especially when short in the majors. I’d bet that most experts would open 3  with, say, Q-x x K-x-x 9-8-7-6-4-3-2, but only at favorable vulnerability.

Therefore, I see no reason to be paranoid about a singleton club. Instead you should be concerned with the realistic possibility of a doubleton, as in this treacherous deal:

IMPs	5 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	J 10 2		1 W	10	A	4	2!
	7 5 3		2 N	K	3	10!	2
	A K Q J 5		3 N	4!	8	A	6
K J 10 9 6		Q 8	4 S	2!	9	5	Q
7 6 5 3		4	5 E	4	A	3	2
A 4		K 9 8 6	6 S	3	10	10	6
10 2		9 8 7 6 4 3	7 N	Q	6	8!	4
	A 7 3 2		8 S	7	J	J	7
	A K Q 9 8		Declarer succeeds
	Q J 10 2
4 South	—

The instinctive play is to discard two spades immediately; but then what? If you lead a third club pitching your last spade, West will ruff; then he will get a second ruff in diamonds to set you. Drawing three rounds of trumps doesn’t help; when West ruffs the third club, he will just exit with a spade, then you are destined to lose three diamonds in the endgame.

The only way to ensure success (barring a stiff club) is Line D. After pitching two diamonds, lead a spade to the ace and give up a spade. Even a trump return won’t matter, as you can crossruff the black suits to ice the contract. It may seem strange to pitch only two diamonds; but if try to pitch three, West will ruff and return a trump; then your crossruff is foiled by a second trump lead when West wins a spade. Don’t be greedy!

Line E was the popular choice and does provide excellent chances. If trumps are 3-2, it assures 11 tricks, so it would be the correct choice at matchpoints. It is also safe when East has four trumps (continue top clubs after two trumps). Nonetheless, the failure of Line E when West has 5=4=2=2 shape makes it a dubious choice.*

*Actually, in the long run there is little (if any) difference in the productivity of Lines D and E. With Line E you will gain 1 IMP on the great majority of deals but occasionally lose 12. It is arguable, depending on various subjective factors, whether this breaks even or is a slight gain or loss; but it is certainly close. Hence, the 10-9 awards. In fuzzy situations like this, I almost always give the edge to the safer line at IMPs.

Line C is the same as Line E if you lead two trumps next (barring the fluke case of a stiff club) though it’s unclear what most of its followers had in mind.* Hence, the lower score.

*Presumably the next lead would not be a high club next (else Line A would be chosen) but there are other possibilities like leading a diamond.

Line F is an interesting choice, as it avoids direct commitment, leaving various avenues open. In my diagram the defense must be accurate: West must win the A and shift to a spade. Note that if West grabs an early diamond ruff, you will succeed.

Comments for D. Win A-K (pitch diamonds)

Tonci Tomic: All I need is [no worse than] 2-6 distribution in clubs… Even 5-0 in hearts doesn’t bother me. Line E looks promising but will go down if West is 5=4=2=2 [barring A-K tight].

Alexei Vinogradov: This wins if West has 5=4=2=2 and loses if he has 5=4=3=1. Line C wins the opposite way [which is less likely].

Zahary Zahariev: I’ll continue with ace and another spade for 10 sure tricks. On Line B I’ll take 11 tricks if the Q wins, but if West has something like K-J-x-x-x x-x-x-x A-x 10-x, he may ruff twice for one down. There is no sure line for 10 tricks against 7-1 club break.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: If West has two diamonds and only one club, I will not be able to make unless he has stiff A-K. It looks like the best choice is between Lines D and E. If West’s shape is 5=3=4=1 or 5=4=3=1, Line E works better; but if 5=4=2=2, Line D is the winner. I think there are more hands in the latter case…

Rob Balas: Is it a doubleton? Or is it a singleton? …otherwise, no matter. … Tricky. The diamond honors must be split, otherwise West would have led one instead of this nebulous club; [likewise] for the spade honors [K-Q]. East is a passed hand, [so] seven clubs are unlikely, otherwise he might have risked a preempt at these colors — I wouldn’t bet the farm on it though. The key is what East is signaling at trick one; with seven clubs and one of the diamond honors, it seems like he should play his [lowest] club to show West where his entry is located. … OK, I like it; East’s pass and the 4 add up to Line D.

Walter Lee: In the trump spots lie the answer.

Frances Hinden: As long as clubs aren’t 7-1 this ensures the contract, even if hearts are 5-0. I’ll play a spade next.

N. Scott Cardell: Then A and a spade. If the A-K and A live, I have 10 sure tricks. Lines B and E are reasonable at matchpoints, as they are likely to produce 11 tricks when they work.

David Lindop: If two rounds of clubs live, I can play A and a spade, planning to score seven trump tricks.

Nikolay Demirev: [Playing for] two clubs, one spade and seven trump tricks. …The other lines fail when West is simply 5=4=2=2.

Julian Wightwick: Then play for spade ruffs. I don’t think spades are 7-0 [from the bidding and lead] so this guarantees 10 tricks unless clubs are 7-1. The alternative of trying to draw trumps then pitch spades (Line E) fails with West 5=4=2=2. At matchpoints, I would play for overtricks by pitching more diamonds.

Dale Freeman: Torn between this and Line E. This goes down only if clubs are 7-1; Line E could go down if hearts are 4-1…

Julian Pottage: Almost certain to make 10 tricks: five hearts, one spade, two clubs and two high spade ruffs.

Bill Powell: No seven-card black suits around are there?

Rainer Herrmann: If the second club stands up, a crossruff is a near certainty.

Bob Zorn: Followed by A and a spade, then a high crossruff. Needs 7-0 spades or 7-1 clubs not to work.

Frans Buijsen: After A-K, I can assure myself of two spades ruffs, so I lose only two diamonds and a spade.

Douglas Dunn: Followed by ace and another spade, and crossruff — ensures the contract unless a club gets ruffed.

Richard Higgins: It appears West has five spades and one diamond honor (since didn’t bid 2 or lead A-K). After A-K, I will lead to the A [to ensure the contract] with two spade ruffs…

David Stern: Then a high crossruff. If I don’t pitch diamonds, they may get diamond ruff.

Nicola Farina: To succeed, this line needs only a 6-2 (or better) club break. Line E wins in some situations when 10 is singleton but loses if West has 5=4=2=2 shape.

Tim DeLaney: Two club tricks are all that’s needed; play A next, followed by a spade to ensure 10 tricks.

Homer Wang: Then play A and a spade; win heart (best) in hand and crossruff spades and clubs.

Ognian Smilianov: If the second club holds, which is very likely, I will switch to A and a spade. No one can stop me from ruffing two spades in dummy; as a result I will make two clubs, one spade and seven trumps.

Nigel Guthrie: Prepare for a crossruff.

Roger Morton: I only need two clubs before giving them a spade and starting to crossruff. If [I try to win three clubs] and West has a doubleton, they might lead trumps twice leaving me a trick short.

Harvey Jaffe: Avoids the risk of a diamond ruff and guarantees the contract when clubs are no worse than 6-2 by then playing to ruff two spades high in dummy.

Florentin Axinte: If West has five trumps and a singleton club, I really cannot see how to make this game. The third round of clubs will be pernicious if West started with a doubleton along with four trumps, and to lead a diamond immediately seems a suicide. Spades must be ruffed in dummy, so discard [two] diamonds…

Daniel Auby: Then A, small spade and crossruff — 100 percent unless clubs are 7-1 or spades 7-0.

Dick Yuen: I can afford to lose two diamonds and one spade but not a diamond ruff as well.

Jean Verbeke: I [expect] to win…two clubs (10 is highest of doubleton) and then start spades [to ensure] seven trump tricks…

Tim McKay: Then presumably A and a spade.

Dale Rudrum: … This eliminates the risk of a diamond ruff, allowing me to play A and a spade, claiming 10 tricks on a high crossruff. If the 10 is a singleton, I will feel extremely unlucky.

Roddy Kok: Then A, concede a spade, and proceed to crossruff.

Leonard Helfgott: If I try three rounds of clubs, I could [be defeated by a doubleton club]. Pitching two diamonds and then getting two spade ruffs ensures the contract when clubs are not 7-1 and spades not 7-0.

Gerald Murphy: …Then revert to A and another spade. If a heart is returned, I can still get two ruffs in dummy and come to 10 tricks. The only thing that could thwart this plan is a 7-1 club break.

Paul Hardy: Intending to ruff two spades… easy game.

Carlos Dabezies: If clubs are no worse than 6-2, I will make on a crossruff.

Rai Osborne: It is tempting to play a third club, but success occurs with two spade ruffs in dummy.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 2

IMPs E-W Vul	K 7 5 3 6 2 A 5 2 K 6 5 2		West Pass Pass	North 2 3 NT	East Pass All Pass	SOUTH 1 NT 2
Lead: 4		East plays 6
3 NT South	A 9 A 8 5 4 K 7 6 4 A 8 4

After winning the 9 (thank you very much):

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Duck a heart	10	61	10
E. Duck a diamond	9	233	36
F. Duck a club	7	256	40
A. Win A; duck a heart	5	17	3
B. Win A; duck a diamond	4	24	4
C. Win A; duck a club	3	48	8

The gift on the opening lead seems strange, but a closer look should explain it. West chose to lead fourth-best from Q-J-10-4-2 because dummy was marked with four spades from the Stayman sequence. I agree with this strategy, as I think would most experts, because partner will often have a stiff ace, king, nine or eight; and if he has none of these cards, declarer will usually have three stoppers anyway if you lead the queen.

Now that we’ve cleared up the lead mystery, it’s time for some Christmas duck. But which recipe? The straightforward approach is to duck a minor suit, as a 3-3 break yields nine tricks. The trouble is that this may be your only chance; a heart shift seems inevitable, then you may be unable to try the other minor. Consider a typical layout where one of the minors breaks 3-3:

IMPs	K 7 5 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	6 2		1 W	4	3	6	9
	A 5 2		2 S	4	3	2	8
	K 6 5 2		3 E	Q	4	3	2
Q J 10 4 2		8 6	4 E	9	5	7	6
K 7 3		Q J 10 9	5 E	10	A	K	2
J 3		Q 10 9 8	6 S	8!	2	5	J
Q 9 3		J 10 7	continued below…
	A 9
	A 8 5 4
	K 7 6 4
3 NT South	A 8 4

Ducking a club obviously works, but suppose you duck a diamond. East wins and shift to hearts, which you duck twice, then win the third round, pitching a club from dummy since you can no longer duck a club safely. Next lead your last heart (completely safe) to pitch another club, which puts East on lead in this ending:

NT win all	K 7 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		7 E	J	4	3	K
	A 5		8 N	5	8	A	10
	K 6		9 S	K	J	5	9
Q J 10		8	10 S	6	9	A	10
—		—	11 N	K	?
J		Q 10 9	East is squeezed
Q 9 3		J 10 7
	A
	—
	K 7 6
East leads	A 8 4

Regardless of East’s return, win the K, A and K. Next cross to the A, which forces West to unguard clubs to keep a spade stopper. Finally, the K squeezes East in the minors. A neat double squeeze, and the opponents were helpless to stop it.

Now consider the flip side, where diamonds break and clubs do not:

IMPs	K 7 5 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	6 2		1 W	4	3	6	9
	A 5 2		2 S	4	3	2	7
	K 6 5 2		3 E	Q	4	3	2
Q J 10 4 2		8 6	4 E	9	5	7	6
K 7 3		Q J 10 9	5 E	10	?
J 9 3		Q 10 8	Declarer fails
9 3		Q J 10 7
	A 9
	A 8 5 4
	K 7 6 4
3 NT South	A 8 4

Ducking a diamond obviously works, but suppose you duck a club. East shifts to hearts as before, and no matter when you take your ace, you’ve reached a dead end. No double squeeze will develop, because heart leads force dummy to part with a black-suit threat prematurely, else lose communication in the common suit (diamonds).

Therefore, ducking a diamond is better than ducking a club, because it works when either minor splits. Essentially this is because you will have a positional threat if East has 4+ diamonds, which is conducive to squeeze prospects; not so if East has 4+ clubs.

But what if neither minor splits? Consider this layout:

IMPs	K 7 5 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	6 2		1 W	4	3	6	9
	A 5 2		2 S	4	3	2	7
	K 6 5 2		3 E	10	4	3	2
Q J 10 4 2		8 6	4 E	9	6	J	A
K J 9 3		Q 10 7	5 N	6	10	A	9
J 3		Q 10 9 8	6 S	5!	J	2	Q
Q 3		J 10 9 7	7 E	8	K	2	5
	A 9		continued below…
	A 8 5 4
	K 7 6 4
3 NT South	A 8 4

If you begin by ducking a diamond (or a club) the defense prevails simply by returning the minor you led (or the other minor) thereby attacking your entries before you can rectify the count for a squeeze. A slower approach is required, and this is accomplished by Line D: Duck a heart. The play can take many turns, and declarer has an answer to all, though it may require a guess. Suppose East wins and returns the 10 (ducked) then a diamond to the ace. Next lead a heart to the ace (optionally duck) and a third heart to East’s queen. Win the diamond return with your king to leave this position:

NT win 5	K 7 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		8 S	A	10	5	8
	—		9 S	8!	K	5	7
	K 6 5		10 W	Q	K	?
Q J 10		8	East is squeezed
K		—
—		Q
Q 3		J 10 9 7
	A
	8
	7
South leads	A 8 4

Since diamonds didn’t split, your only chance is a squeeze, so unblock the A and exit with your last heart, which is only the fourth trick lost. Regardless of which black suit West returns, the K will squeeze East in the minors.

Curiously, the heart duck works on all three of my examples. After ducking a heart or two, you will usually duck a diamond along the way; then if diamonds don’t split, you’ll end with a simple or double squeeze. The danger in ducking a heart is that East may be 2=5=3=3 and pound away hearts, causing you to fail with both minors 3-3. Ouch. Therefore, it’s still not clear which line is better.

Further study shows six East shapes (2=4=4=3, 2=4=3=4, 2=5=5=1, 2=5=3=3, 2=3=5=3 and 2=3=3=5) where a diamond duck always succeeds, and three shapes (2=4=4=3, 2=4=3=4 and 2=5=5=1) where a heart duck always succeeds. In addition, there are seven shapes (2=3=4=4, 2=5=4=2, 2=4=5=2, 2=2=5=4, 2=2=4=5, 2=3=3=5 and 2=3=5=3) where a heart duck can succeed if you guess the play. Your guess rate cannot be determined exactly; but you should get more than half right, which gives the edge to Line D.

Another factor in favor of the heart duck is the mystery it creates, which will often work to your advantage. The opponents may think you have five hearts, so the best defense is unclear; and even if East has five hearts, he may lack the spots to overtake West’s card and drive the suit. If they shift to a minor, it is strong evidence that suit is not 3-3. If they return a spade, I would cross to dummy with a club and lead the K; East’s discard will be a big clue, and you can still afford to duck a trick in any suit without risk.

Lines A, B and C (cashing the A first) are considerably inferior, as releasing winners can only hurt your battle to rectify the count for a potential squeeze.

Comments for D. Duck a heart

Tonci Tomic: Rectifying the count in the only suit possible at the moment; need some time to guess which squeeze will work. If I cash the A, I [may] be squeezed before the opponents.

Zahary Zahariev: I must reduce the hands and eventually squeeze somebody, and this way prevents the removal of my threats. Poor West; there isn’t another losing lead.

Rob Balas: Squeeze time. Spades must be 5-2 with Q-J-10-4-2 with West. With only eight tricks off the top, I need to have either diamonds or clubs split 3-3 or a squeeze. By ducking a heart early, I start to rectify the count…

Frances Hinden: One of those irritating hands where I know the contract is making as long as I can read the position. I don’t want to touch one of the minors as opponents can then attack that minor and destroy my menace, so I’ll start by ducking a couple of hearts and see what happens. Cashing the A first doesn’t seem to gain anything…

David Lindop: With a spade threat against West, I probably want a heart threat against East for a possible double squeeze. … A lot of threats, but I’ll probably get all tangled up eventually.

Julian Wightwick: Isolate the heart menace, start to rectify the count, and hope for the best. The spade menace over West is powerful, and surely something good will happen. … If they continue spades, I shall start ducking minor suits.

Gareth Birdsall: West looks to have the spade length so I should have [some kind] of squeeze as long as I can rectify the count enough times. It must be right to start on hearts since I want to keep the minor-suit entries as flexible as possible.

Manuel Paulo: Spades appear to be divided Q-J-10-4-2 and 8-6. If diamonds [and] clubs break evenly, any line is good. If West controls diamonds and East controls clubs, there is no good choice — aside from West’s 5=4=4=0 shape, where [Line D] wins. Ducking hearts [probably] doesn’t compromise a minor-suit setup when viable; and by rectifying the count or isolating a menace, this helps to establish one of several squeezes, according to the opponents’ further leads. Only Line D deals well with all these [West] distributions: 5=4=2=2, 5=4=0=4, 5=3=1=4 and 5=2=2=4.

Rainer Herrmann: West has probably led from a five-card suit headed by Q-J-10, in which case [there should be some] squeeze.

Anthony Golding: I [probably] need one of the minors 3-3, but playing on them may expose my heart weakness. They know I’ve got four hearts (and I assume I could have five for a 1 NT opening) and spades held, so they may well open up one minor for me. I can’t afford to play a second spade first, as West can now set up his spade winners while I still have to lose the lead at least once more.

Paulino Correa: I can only make the ninth trick with the fourth diamond or club after ducking both those suits — unless my crystal ball’s batteries are very good and I can guess the right minor at once. The problem is, after my first duck, the opponents will attack hearts; so I try to mislead them by ducking a heart first. …

Roger Morton: I have to lose a few tricks before a squeeze emerges. This keeps my positions in the threat suits fluid for the moment.

Neil Morgenstern: I have eight tricks thanks to the lead; and while a minor suit might break 3-3, it seems right to play for squeeze combinations. Duck the heart first to start rectifying the count.

Cecil Livingston: If either minor splits 3-3, a ninth trick is available; if not, East is vulnerable to a squeeze. I must remove idle hearts and rectify the count before testing splits.

Paul Hardy: Maybe not an easy game.

Noer Imanzal Kartamadjana: I need to know which suit can develop between diamonds and clubs, [and the defense may tell me].

Comments for E. Duck a diamond

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: It would be great if I could duck once each minor, and then lose two more tricks, ideally hearts. Then, already having eight tricks, I could try for the ninth if either minor splits 3-3 or if there is any sort of squeeze available. However, after ducking the first trick they will start playing on hearts, so I will not be able to duck the other minor. I think it is better to duck a diamond because I will later have to duck a few hearts and I will need clubs available for discards. I might eventually succeed via a squeeze, as West is already marked with the spade threat.

Sergey Kustarov: I play East to be 2=4=4=3 or 2=4=3=4. Opponents have to lead hearts (else I’ll duck a club); take third heart; A; go to A… and duck a spade. After that, I’ll squeeze East in hearts and diamonds (or diamonds 3-3).

Walter Lee: Who says aces and kings are undervalued? Make him play this hand.

Nikolay Demirev: With eight top tricks I can rely on a squeeze as the best chance for nine. It’s hard to duck four times without breaking all communications unless the defense helps me. … Ducking a diamond is preferable to a club because on the third round of hearts I can pitch a club from dummy.

John Reardon: Playing for West to be 5-3-3-2, in which case one minor is 3-3. If it is diamonds I already have nine tricks; if not, I will succeed if I can safely duck a club or arrange a squeeze. The defense must now lead and continue hearts or I will be able to duck a club; I duck three rounds of hearts throwing a club from North. Whatever they play next I win and execute a double squeeze (if diamonds did not break); East must keep diamonds and West spades, so neither will be able to keep three clubs.

Marcus Chiloarnus: A sweet problem. If they don’t keep playing hearts, I will give them a club trick later. If they do keep playing hearts, I will squeeze their plums.

The holidays are never complete without a fruitcake… Trouble is, this guy is year-round.

Charles Blair: If a heart is returned, I will duck three times and try to squeeze West followed by East. Ducking a heart at trick two would be embarrassing if West is 5=2=3=3.

Dale Freeman: I will duck some hearts probably and pitch two clubs from dummy, and maybe a double squeeze will unfold if diamonds are not 3-3.

Julian Pottage: Unlikely to be time to try for 3-3 in both minors. Prefer diamond duck as East is a favorite to hold a four-card minor, and squeeze chances are better with threats over the stoppers.

Grant Peacock: I need another month for this one.

Bob Zorn: Pitch clubs on the likely heart switch; this gives me chances of 3-3 diamonds and a squeeze. If I duck a club, I rely [almost] solely on 3-3 clubs.

Douglas Dunn: If East returns hearts, keep ducking and throw two clubs from table; then A, K, A and K results in a double squeeze if East has long diamonds and West long spades. If East returns a spade at trick three, duck a club playing for a 3-3 break in one minor.

Harvey Jaffe: Expert opponents are sure to switch to hearts, leading to discarding problems if a club is ducked.

Len Vishnevsky: … If they shift to hearts, I duck three rounds and have a squeeze in…diamonds (East), spades (West) and clubs (both)… I keep the A in case I duck a few hearts and they shift…

David Johnson: Presuming that the count will be rectified for a squeeze by losing [three] hearts… I have to keep the A, as a [third] spade lead…would force me to discard…too soon. I have to duck a diamond to preserve threats in three suits and communication with dummy.

Sriram Narasimhan: I need to develop some sort of squeeze involving three suits (spades, diamonds and clubs). If I cash the A, West will clear the suit and cash winners (eliminating the threat) when I duck to rectify. Ducking a heart will be a problem when East has five and clears hearts. If I duck a club, I have discard problems when ducking hearts to rectify. So duck a diamond, and then duck hearts three times pitching clubs.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 3

Matchpoints Both Vul	K Q 4 A Q 7 5 2 A 7 5 4 3 —		West Pass All Pass	NORTH 1 3	East Pass Pass	South 1 4
Lead: J		East plays 6
4 South	A J 10 9 8 J 3 Q 8 9 8 6 3

After winning the Q:

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
E. Ruff club; lead 2 to jack	10	132	21
B. Lead 3 and finesse queen	9	145	23
A. Run the J	8	131	21
C. Win A; ruff diamond; run the J	6	21	3
F. Ruff club; win A; ruff diamond	5	173	27
D. Ruff club; lead the Q	2	37	6

Overtricks are the story at matchpoints, and partner’s tricky bidding (concealing diamonds) earned a sugarplum. For starters, you have eight top tricks (five trump tricks, one heart and two diamonds thanks to the lead). On normal layouts you should be able to add a heart trick, two club ruffs and a long card in one of the red suits, for a total of 12 tricks. Alternatively, if you can win your second heart trick with a finesse, you could ruff three clubs (i.e., crossruff) instead of establishing a red suit.

Why did West lead a diamond? From this contest you might say “in the Holiday spirit,” but more likely it is because he has a weak heart holding and is trying to develop or cash tricks before you obtain discards. Certainly, if West held K-10-x-x or the like, he would have chosen a safe trump lead. Therefore, the heart finesse is a favorite to lose. A singleton heart can be ruled out on similar grounds. Consider this typical layout:

Matchpoints	K Q 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	A Q 7 5 2		1 W	J	3	6	Q
	A 7 5 4 3		2 S	3!	4	4	2
	—		3 N	2!	K	3	4
7 6 2		5 3	4 E	9	8	2	A
8 4		K 10 9 6	5 N	4	5	8	10
K J 10 2		9 6	6 S	6	7	Q	10
A Q 7 4		K J 10 5 2	7 N	5	J	9	K
	A J 10 9 8		8 S	A	2	K	3
	J 3		9 S	J	6	5	5
	Q 8		10 S	10	7	7	6
4 South	9 8 6 3		Declarer succeeds

You must start club ruffs early, so consider Line E above. At Trick 3 East does best to win the K and return a diamond, then you have a path to 12 tricks by establishing the long diamond. If East returns anything else, your 12 tricks are easier with all the hearts being good. What if East ducks the heart? “Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus,” as you now can win all 13 tricks.

After winning the Q, suppose you followed Line A (run the J). East does best to win and return a heart, then you lack the entries to ruff two clubs and enjoy the long heart; and it does no good to establish the long diamond with the heart entry removed. You can’t crossruff for 12 tricks either because you can’t score a second heart trick.

Your fate is similar with Line B (lead 3 to queen), only this time East should return a diamond. Oh, what a tangled web this leaves, but you cannot come to 12 tricks with any play.

The pleasing aspect of Line E is that it usually produces the same 12 tricks if West has the K. Let’s switch that card:

Matchpoints	K Q 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	A Q 7 5 2		1 W	J	3	6	Q
	A 7 5 4 3		2 S	3!	4	4	2
	—		3 N	2!	4	J	K
7 6 2		5 3	4 W	K	A	9	8
K 8		10 9 6 4	5 N	4	5	8	2
K J 10 2		9 6	6 S	6	7	Q	10
A Q 7 4		K J 10 5 2	7 N	5	J	9	10
	A J 10 9 8		8 S	A	2	K	3
	J 3		9 S	J	6	5	5
	Q 8		10 S	10	7	7	6
4 South	9 8 6 3		Declarer succeeds

When the J loses to the king, West cannot kill both red-suit entries to dummy, and you can establish the long card in whichever suit he returns (if a diamond you need trumps 3-2), ruff another club, and easily win 12 tricks. Note that you cannot improve on this by taking an immediate heart finesse, as that still only nets 12 tricks, even if hearts were 3-3. On a bad day, of course, West will win the K and the diamond return will be ruffed; but even then, 10 tricks are virtually certain*, and you might win 11.

*Several respondents, by their comments, overlooked the conditions and assumed IMPs. Curiously, I think Line E is best at IMPs also because it is only jeopardized by a bad heart break, which can be ruled out by West’s lead. Note that in the worst scenario (West wins K, A ruffed), East must return a trump to stop a crossruff; then you have 10 sure tricks even if trumps were 5-0.

Of the other choices, Lines A and B are pretty good, losing to Line E only when the heart finesse loses and both red suits are 4-2. Line B gets the edge because the J reentry allows 12 tricks to be won when East has a singleton diamond.

Line C might produce 12 tricks on a crossruff if the heart finesse works (assuming no stiff diamond), but whenever it loses there is almost no chance.

Line F offers the only legitimate play for all 13 tricks, but it requires 3-3 diamonds (contraindicated by East’s 6) and a risky heart finesse after trumps are drawn. Christmas may be the time for miracles, but I’d rather bet on seeing a reindeer fly.

Line D is the worst, as it blocks the heart suit, leaving no chance to establish either red suit after a diamond return. Then the only hope for 12 tricks is 3-3 hearts and a crossruff; and if you play for this, you will be held to just 10 tricks if West ruffs the A.

Comments for E. Ruff club; lead 2 to jack

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: With the most probable distributions (hearts and diamonds 4-2, and spades 3-2) this line will lead to 12 tricks regardless of who holds the K. I might get 12 tricks even with spades 4-1 if a diamond is not returned at trick four.

Sergey Kustarov: Better not spoil the favorable lead. I’ll take 11 or 12 tricks, depending on the defense and distribution.

Manuel Paulo: Playing IMPs, I would choose Line G: Ruff club; duck diamond. At matchpoints, I will try to win as many tricks as possible. I don’t expect any red suit to break 3-3, so I need to ruff some clubs; and if I have to surrender a heart trick, I should do this while I have club control.

Marsha Rayton: I don’t think it matters who wins the K. I have control of every suit and entries to both hands.

Alan Kravetz: If East has the K, I can make six.

B. Downey Grover: Attempting [to establish hearts] and create an entry to hand for another club ruff…

Comments for B. Lead 3 and finesse queen

Zahary Zahariev: To ensure 10 tricks against a 5-1 diamond break, and [try for] 11 or 12 tricks (depends on heart and diamond distributions). And something interesting: If East has x-x-x-x K-10-9-x x A-Q-x-x, he must duck the Q to take a second trick.

Walter Lee: I’m taking a finesse that I hope will lose. Matchpoints are really messing with my mind.

N. Scott Cardell: … It’s matchpoints and I received a favorable opening lead, so the primary goal is to preserve that advantage so as to take (at least) one more trick than those less fortunate. Diamonds are likely to be 5-1 but might be 4-2. The advantage of Line B [over E or D] is (1) that West might have five diamonds and the K… and (2) you may get a trump return if the finesse loses… (Note that if your hearts were x or x-x instead of J-x, a trump return is best and necessary on some distributions.)

Nikolay Demirev: When hearts are no worse than 4-2, the defense will need to counter with a trump return; then the J will be the necessary entry to cope with 4-1 trumps. In other words, 12 tricks will be made when [the heart finesse loses and] East is 4=4=1=4. Strangely, if the K is onside the play is more difficult; 11 tricks are there, but trying for 12 may get me 10.

John Reardon: A good chance of 12 tricks even if the finesse loses, and safe too.

Marcus Chiloarnus: I expect two extra sugar lumps (which happens to be an anagram of plums) most of the time.

Charles Blair: A 5-1 diamond split is more likely than 3-3 (restricted choice). If East is 3=4=1=5 with the K, I can ruff two clubs in dummy and [establish hearts] for 12 tricks.

Andrew de Sosa: Best shot at making 12 tricks without risking the contract overly much. If the finesse wins, I’ll attempt to cash both red aces and crossruff. If the finesse loses and a trump is returned, there is still an odds-on play for six (hearts no worse than 4-2 and trumps no worse than 4-1). On a diamond return, I’ll give up on six and take the sure five (assuming the J cashes), which should still be a decent result.

Julian Wightwick: If the finesse wins and the red suits are 4-2 or better, I have 12 tricks on a crossruff. If it loses and East switches to trumps, I can ruff two clubs and establish the long heart, keeping the A as a late entry, also making 12. If East returns a diamond, I will have to settle for 11 on a crossruff, and will wish I had started with the J…

Dale Freeman: I think diamonds are 5-1 with that lead. Actually, I hope the heart finesse loses [as with normal breaks] I make six.

Julian Pottage: Excellent chance of overtricks. This could be useful to have a reentry for club ruffs if the heart finesse fails.

Anthony Golding: If this holds, I’ve got 12 tricks on a crossruff on normal breaks… If it loses and East returns a trump, I’ll win; ruff a club; J; club ruff; heart ruff; draw trumps, and I’ve still got 12.

Frans Buijsen: I think this maximizes my chances for 12 tricks without risking a diamond ruff (if West gets in).

Douglas Dunn: Aim for 12 tricks… Avoid playing the A as it might get ruffed.

Richard Higgins: Keeps the J as an entry for a club ruff, in case the heart finesse loses.

Tim DeLaney: … Paradoxically, if the Q loses, I have excellent chances for 12 tricks; but if it wins, I may have to settle for 11 [fearing the A will be ruffed].

Ron Zucker: Damn matchpoints. If the heart finesse wins, cash the two aces, ruff a red card, ruff a club low and claim six. If it loses and East returns a spade, win in hand, ruff a club, heart to hand, club ruff, heart ruff, pull trumps… making six.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 4

Matchpoints None Vul	K J 6 5 J 7 5 3 10 2 Q 7 3		West Pass	North Pass	EAST 2 Pass	South 3 NT
Lead: K		East plays A
3 NT South	A 3 10 6 2 A K J 5 4 A K 5

At trick two East leads the J to your ace; West plays the 2.
On the K, West pitches the 4.

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Lead 3 and finesse jack	10	66	10
C. Lead the 10	8	216	34
D. Lead the 6	7	176	28
F. Win Q; lead 10 (Q-A); win J	6	34	5
A. Win A; lead 3 and finesse jack	4	69	11
E. Lead the 4	2	78	12

As on Problem 3, with matchpoint scoring the main concern is overtricks. After the sugarcoated first trick, it is easy to ensure nine tricks simply by establishing a heart; but prospects are good to win as many as 11 tricks. West is almost sure to hold four (or more) spades and probably the Q, so he’s ripe for a squeeze. Consider this layout:

Matchpoints	K J 6 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	J 7 5 3		1 W	K	3	A	2
	10 2		2 E	J	A	2	3
	Q 7 3		3 S	K	4	2	9
10 9 7 4		Q 8 2	4 S	3!	4	J	Q
K Q 9 8 4		A	5 E	10	5	4	Q
—		Q 9 8 7 6 3	6 N	10	Q	A	6
8 6 4 2		J 10 9	7 S	J	8	7	3
	A 3		continued below…
	10 6 2
	A K J 5 4
3 NT South	A K 5

The popular choice was to lead the 10 at Trick 4, which West would win and return the 9. Now you could win 11 tricks on a squeeze assuming* the likely case that West has Q-x-x-x or longer. Alas, you’d be headed for a nasty surprise when East produced the Q at a disastrous time — and defeated if East pitched one spade.

*The late comedian Benny Hill comes to mind, as he illustrated on a chalkboard: “Never ASSUME… because it makes an ASS out of U and ME.” Ah, was he a funny one… his crazy theme music echoes through my mind.

The solution is to finesse spades early as shown above (Line B). No matter who has the Q, you’ll have the same squeeze against West. When East wins the Q, assume he returns a club (nothing matters) which you win in dummy to finesse diamonds (10-queen-ace) then cash the J to leave this position:

NT win 5	K 6 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	J 7 5		8 S	A	7	5	2
	—		9 S	K	?
	—		West is squeezed
10 9 7		8 2
Q 9 8		—
—		8 7 6
—		9
	A
	10 6
	5 4
South leads	K

Note that West was obliged to pitch all his clubs to guard both majors. Next cash the A (optional) then the K. Whichever suit West pitches, you will pitch the other from dummy, then concede a heart to win the rest.

Of the also-rans, Lines C, D and F are essentially equal, leading to the same predicament: Who’s got the button? You can always do as well as Line B if you guess correctly (note that if you decide to play East for the Q, he can be endplayed). The ranking is based on the voting.

Line A (cash A first) is definitely inferior because whenever the spade finesse loses, East can return a spade to establish a winner for West and limit you to nine tricks.

Line E (conceding a diamond) seems the worst because it gives up any chance to win 11 tricks. Essentially, it is a committal that East has the Q, in which case you can achieve parity (10 tricks) with a spade-diamond squeeze.

Comments for B. Lead 3 and finesse jack

Tonci Tomic: If West is 4=5=0=4… I will make 11 tricks if the Q is onside, or 10 if not. I must not give up a heart trick too early if the Q is with East.

Zahary Zahariev: Normally West has 4+ spades, and a squeeze is easy — 10 or 11 tricks, depending on Q.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: Making just the assumption (reasonable enough, by me) that West has four or five spades, this will get 11 tricks when the Q is onside. If East has the Q, I will still succeed in taking 10 tricks. In either case, I will follow up with a strip squeeze in the majors against West.

Sergey Kustarov: East hardly has Q-x-x-x, so this is the safest plan to check if I have 10 or 11 tricks. (If I choose Line A, East returns a spade with Q-x-x.) Later West will be caught in a three-suit strip squeeze (delayed duck in hearts).

Rob Balas: Strip-squeeze time against West, but first I have to find out about the Q — don’t want a nasty guess at the end. … If East has [ Q-x-x], I’ll have trouble if I play the A first; therefore, as a singleton Q is highly unlikely, I’m hooking the jack now. If it works, I make five on the strip squeeze; if it fails, I make four — either way, good health and Christmas cheer. …If the hook works, I win the A and follow Line F…and finally the K to put the gingerbread knife into West.

Frances Hinden: As long as West has the long spades, this will be 10 or 11 tricks (depending on who has the Q) with the aid of a [strip] squeeze.

N. Scott Cardell: Clearly, West started with K-Q-9-8-4 and is also very likely to hold the spade length. Given this, I have West caught in a squeeze for an overtrick, and I need to try the spade finesse [immediately] for a possible second overtrick. (With Line A, if the spade finesse loses to Q-x-x, a spade comes back breaking up the key squeeze position.) It is also useful to keep the K to last. [Play sequence described]. If West has the spade length, there is no way for him to create any ambiguity.

David Lindop: It is dangerous to leave the spade finesse until after diamonds have been played. A singleton Q is less likely than Q-x-x, in which case [Line A allows] East to return a spade to destroy my chance for [10] tricks.

Nikolay Demirev: Once I have a head start at matchpoints, I’ll try not to waste it on a misguess in the end position… Probably everyone in 3 NT is taking the spade finesse, so I’m taking it, too, in the safest way. Win or lose, assuming West has four or five spades, I plan to squeeze him without the count for 11 or 10 tricks, respectively.

Radu Mihai: If the J wins, win the Q and take the diamond finesse; then win the A and another high diamond. West has to make two more discards. [Ending described].

John Reardon: [Assuming West has four or more spades], this line guarantees 11 tricks when the spade finesse succeeds or 10 tricks when it fails.

Marcus Chiloarnus: West is already sweating because he can see the fiendish glint in my eye.

Charles Blair: If the finesse loses, I don’t want East to be able to establish a spade trick for West. I win the second club in dummy.

Julian Wightwick: I plan to squeeze West in the majors. Assuming West has the spade length, I will make 11 or 10 tricks according to whether the J holds. It’s interesting that I must block the spade suit in case the finesse loses and East continues the suit. The top diamonds must be played before the last club to squeeze West out of the long club first.

Dale Freeman: Leaving all options if the spade finesse is wrong. Hopefully, West will have Q-x-x-x, and I will make five on a [strip] squeeze.

Imre Csiszar: … The immediate finesse, whether it wins or loses, admits the best result possible (via a spade-heart squeeze against West) unless East has four spades.

Gareth Birdsall: Placing West with four or more spades… I will squeeze West in the majors for either 10 or 11 tricks depending on whether the spade finesse works.

Erkki Malkamaki: Killing entries looks strange; but if West has four spades, I get 10 or 11 tricks by a squeeze, depending on where the Q is.

Grant Peacock: Win or lose the spade hook, I can still squeeze West.

Rainer Herrmann: Nine tricks are certain, and West is very likely to have more spades than East. So the objective must be to get 10 tricks if the spade finesse loses, or 11 if it wins. To keep control if the finesse loses, it should be taken immediately; then a trick to the Q will be lost after the squeeze has operated on West.

Olivier La Spada: There are always 10 tricks if West has at least four spades, and 11 can be made if he has the Q. Let’s see immediately.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 5

IMPs N-S Vul	10 7 K Q 5 A 8 6 3 A 8 5 4		West 2 All Pass	NORTH 1 3	East Pass Pass	South 1 4
Lead: A		East plays Q
4 South	K 5 3 A 7 6 4 2 4 2 K 3 2

At trick two West leads the 6, East plays the J, and you win the king.

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
C. Win K; A; ruff spade	10	96	15
B. Win K-Q; duck a club	8	134	21
D. Win K; duck a club	7	99	15
F. Duck a club	6	93	15
A. Win K-Q; K; ruff spade	3	139	22
E. Duck a diamond	2	78	12

Partner’s optimistic heart raise got a big boost from West’s lead, else this contract would have about as much chance as the Sugar Plum Fairy wedding the Tooth Fairy. Assuming a normal trump break, there are nine tricks, and the obvious chance for 10 is a 3-3 club break. Another possibility is to try to ruff your third spade after drawing two trumps (Line A), but this is a fantasy. Even if you are lucky and find West with the third trump, you won’t be able to return to hand to draw it. To wit:

IMPs	10 7		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	K Q 5		1 W	A	7	Q	3
	A 8 6 3		2 W	6	10	J	K
	A 8 5 4		3 S	2	3	K	8
A 9 8 6 4 2		Q J	4 N	Q?	10	4	9
J 9 3		10 8	5 N	4	6	K	7
Q 7		K J 10 9 5	6 S	5	8	5	5
J 7		Q 10 9 6	7 N	A	9	2	J
	K 5 3		8 N	5	10	3	7
	A 7 6 4 2		9 E	Q	2	Q	8
	4 2		10 E	K	4	J	3
4 South	K 3 2		Declarer fails

Suppose you draw two trumps (K-Q), cross to the K and ruff your last spade successfully. What next? It’s hopeless; no matter what you do, West will score an overruff in clubs or diamonds. Forget this layout and consider the far more likely case that East has three trumps:

IMPs	10 7		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	K Q 5		1 W	A	7	Q	3
	A 8 6 3		2 W	6	10	J	K
	A 8 5 4		3 S	2	3	K	8
A 9 8 6 4 2		Q J	4 N	5!	9	A	J
J 3		10 9 8	5 S	5!	8	Q!	?
Q 9 7		K J 10 5	Declarer succeeds
J 7		Q 10 9 6
	K 5 3
	A 7 6 4 2
	4 2
4 South	K 3 2

If you duck a club hoping for clubs 3-3 (Line B, D or F), you are sunk; in fact, it doesn’t even matter what the defense returns. But watch what happens with Line C (shown above). On the surface it may seem illogical to ruff your third spade with dummy’s high trump, but what will East discard? A club pitch makes it easy; a diamond lets you duck a diamond and establish the long diamond; and the only alternative is to underruff with his now-master trump. East is caught in a backwash squeeze — a three-suit squeeze, one of which is trumps.

*It would be just as good to ruff a spade (high) at trick three, or after cashing only the A, but these plays were not among the choices.

It is true that if East pitches a diamond without a hitch, you’d have to guess that he is 2=3=4=4 and not 2=3=5=3; but his discomfort is likely to be apparent, and he might pitch a club anyway, since he does not know the minor-suit layout. In any event, you are no worse off than if you committed to the club duck immediately.

Several respondents commented that South might succeed against a 4-1 heart break (with clubs 3-3), but this isn’t true. If you ruff a spade (low) allowing East to overruff with his natural trick, a diamond shift foils you. Alternatively, if you duck a club first, you can never enjoy the fourth club with any sound defense. The contract is doomed if trumps don’t break.

Of the other choices, Lines B, D and F are basically the same, needing clubs to be 3-3, but with no other chances. They are ranked by the voting. Line A is terrible, essentially needing West to be 6=3=1=3* (note that it fails against 6=2=2=3). Line E (diamond duck) seems the worst, as the only glimmer of hope is that West can never gain the lead and clubs split 3-3.

*Virtually impossible considering East’s silence (no weak 2 overcall) and West not leading his singleton. My award of 3 points was generous due to the large number of votes.

Comments for C. Win K; A; ruff spade

Tonci Tomic: And guess how to squeeze [East]. … An interesting line of play not among the choices is to ruff a spade with the K immediately. … This [may be] psychologically stronger, as East with 2=3=5=3 shape will easily discard diamond; but with 2=3=4=4 he will have a problem, and you can plan your play according to that.

Good point. An early spade ruff might divert East from an Academy Award huddle when he has five diamonds.

Zahary Zahariev: For a minor-squeeze against East. There is no way to succeed if West has 6=3=2=2 shape.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: If trumps are 4-1, there is no timing allowing me to get 10 tricks; so assume trumps are 3-2 with three in East (very likely). Line C will succeed even though it apparently looks like an absurd gambit. Giving East the most probable shape (2=3=4=4), he will be caught in a backwash squeeze. I will continue by ducking the minor he chooses to discard, and that suit will provide the 10th trick.

Sergey Kustarov: Executing a backwash squeeze if East has 2=3=4=4 shape. Though, after a diamond pitch by East, I have to guess if he is 2=3=4=4 or 2=3=5=3.

Rob Balas: Based on the play so far, West doesn’t have a void or other holding that he would love returned (the 6 at trick two). East can’t have a six-card diamond suit at these colors (else a preempt). If hearts are 4-1, I can’t make. Therefore, I need to worry about West having 6=3=2=2, 6=2=4=1, 6=2=3=2 or 6=2=2=3. The first two are unmakable (I think); but Line C will allow me to make with the last two, as long as I watch the discard of East and am a good guesser (if a diamond discard). A backwash squeeze without the count?

Frances Hinden: Playing for East to be caught in the backwash with 2=3=4=4 shape. I don’t know if this is the best line, but it’s certainly the prettiest.

N. Scott Cardell: I have nine tricks and the obvious way to develop another is to play for clubs 3-3… It is a bridge certainty that spades were 6-2, and I surely need a 3-2 trump break. If East is 2=3=4=4 (most likely distribution), Line C catches him in an unusual squeeze… An underruff obviously gives me a trick, and discarding either minor gives me a trick in that suit. [Play sequence explained]. Other attempts to set up a squeeze can be broken up by the opponents attacking your entries.

David Lindop: If West is 6=2=3=2…, East will be squeezed on this trick.

Nikolay Demirev: West would hardly lead the A holding three trumps; and the lead itself and the 6 also show he has unattractive choices in the minors. Whenever East is 2=3=4=4, the spade ruff will catch him in a backwash squeeze. …

Radu Mihai: Because of the lead, West cannot have a minor singleton. Assuming trumps to be 3-2 leaves West with one of three distributions: 6-3-2-2, 6=2=3=2 or 6=2=2=3. The second is the most probable. Some of the six lines win only with clubs 3-3; some others can never win. On Line C, when I ruff the spade, East has to unguard one of the minors; then I’ll get the missing trick from that minor.

John Reardon: It looks as though West is likely to be 6-3-2-2 in some order, and I need hearts 3-2. East will have to make a fatal discard when I ruff the spade. [Play sequence described].

Charles Blair: When East discards a diamond, do I play him for 2=3=4=4 or 2=3=5=3? Theoretically, I think I should try clubs because if East were 4-4 with [similar] minor holdings, he might have discarded a club.

Andrew de Sosa: Let the squeeze begin!

Gareth Birdsall: West has six spades, and he needs at least two trumps for me to have any chance. West would also have led a singleton minor, so his 13th card is most likely to be a diamond since N-S have only six diamonds… Assuming East is 2=3=4=4, he will be squeezed in the minors and trumps when I ruff my spade.

Erkki Malkamaki: If East is 2=3=4=4, he is squeezed now. If he throws a diamond, I have guess if it is from five.

Bill Powell: Squeezing East when he’s 2=3=4=4.

Grant Peacock: Just your everyday triple squeeze; if East pitches a diamond on this, I’ll duck a diamond. Line A is a dead end.

Manuel Paulo: This tactic is not a gambit because I exchange a trump for a spade ruff. I hope that East has 2=3=4=4 distribution; then he is squeezed in three suits (trumps and the minors).

Olivier La Spada: … By ruffing a spade high, East may be squeezed in the minors. If he throws a club, I’ll play clubs; if a diamond after some delay, I’ll play diamonds; if a diamond very quickly (he probably has five), I’ll play clubs.

Douglas Dunn: Neat! If East is 2=3=4=4, he gets squeezed in the process; play whichever minor is discarded.

Nicola Farina: Surely, I can win with other lines if clubs break 3-3; but if East has 2=3=4=4 shape (very probable), he will be squeezed on the spade ruff.

Tim DeLaney: On the lead, I expect West has a semibalanced hand with a horse in every stall, with 6=2=3=2 as his most likely shape. The squeeze inflicted on East when I ruff the spade loser is stunning; so a solution this beautiful just has to be right. (I hope!)

Paulino Correa: Hearts must split 3-2 to have a chance; and West does not have a singleton, or he would have led it. So East should have 2=3=4=4, 2=3=5=3 or 2=2=5=4 shape. Ruffing the third spade low (Line A) would definitely not work on the first two cases; and even in the third one, I would be unable to return to hand to draw West’s last trump. Ducking a club will work if East is 2=3=5=3, but not if he is 2=3=4=4. [The odds are] East is 2=3=4=4, and he will be squeezed at trick five. [Play sequence described].

Florentin Axinte: The problem here is not how to make the contract but how to make up a hand where you had a [legitimate] chance [after the A lead]. West [apparently] made a mistake, as with A-x-x-x-x-x x-x H-x-x x-x, he [should] have shifted to a diamond… and the game is hopeless. With all this in mind, I have to ruff the spade in dummy with a high trump… after which I’ll duck a club. Also, order a glass of good wine for West.

Neil Morgenstern: This is a tricky one, because the problem comes after the multiple choices. I need hearts 3-2, and if East has three hearts and 4-4 in the minors, then Line C is the only one that works… I guess the correct guess when East discards a diamond would be to play on clubs because with four cards in each suit, East would sometimes discard a club.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

Problem 6

IMPs None Vul	9 8 6 4 K 8 5 3 5 3 A 10 3		West 1 All Pass	North Dbl	East 3	SOUTH 1 4
Lead: A		East plays 4
4 South	A 7 5 2 — A K 8 7 6 4 2 7 4

Is the A lead a blessing? Or a Trojan horse?

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
D. Ruff; win A-K	10	84	13
B. Ruff; win A; duck a spade	8	73	11
A. Ruff; duck a spade	6	152	24
F. Pitch a club	5	202	32
C. Ruff; win A; A; K; lead 5	2	102	16
E. Ruff; duck a diamond	1	26	4

There is certainly nothing shy about your bidding, but the contract is decent. If diamonds split 2-2, all you need is 3-2 trumps; in fact, you could win 11 tricks with Line A, B or D. Can you survive a 4-1 trump break? No, because you must lead a round of trumps before running diamonds; if you cash the A, you lose the long diamonds (whoever ruffs the third diamond can pull your trumps); if you duck a trump, the loss of tempo is crucial (a club shift routinely beats you). Therefore, assume a 3-2 trump break.*

*It is possible to survive 4-1 trumps (with diamonds 2-2) if one defender has K-Q-J-10, but this is too far-fetched to worry about. Further, you probably would have been doubled then, anyway.

The realistic task is to cope with a 3-1 diamond break, and this is not as easy as it might seem. Consider this layout:

IMPs	9 8 6 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	K 8 5 3		1 W	A	3	4	2
	5 3		2 S	5?	3	4	10
	A 10 3		3 E	Q	4	2	A
Q J 3		K 10	4 N	K	9	7	2
A Q 7 6 2		J 10 9 4	5 N	3	9	A	J
J		Q 10 9	6 S	K	J	5	10
K 8 5 2		Q J 9 6	7 W	6	5	10	7
	A 7 5 2		8 S	8	Q	8	Q
	—		9 W	K	3	6	A
	A K 8 7 6 4 2		Declarer fails
4 South	7 4

The usual technique in handling such a weak trump suit is to duck the first round, so suppose you follow Line A (ruff; duck a spade). East will win and shift to clubs (you can survive a heart return), which you win with dummy’s ace. Suppose you now pitch your club on the K and lead diamonds from the top; West ruffs and taps you. You can’t draw the remaining trumps because the diamonds aren’t good, so you lead a diamond; West ruffs for the third defensive trick, then another tap promotes East’s K into the setting trick. Holy gingerbread man! In your quest to retain trump control, you lost four trump tricks.

Another possibility is to refuse to ruff at trick one (Line F), but this also comes up short. Suppose West continues hearts (a club shift is just as good) to dummy’s king, then you duck a spade and take the heart tap. If you next lead top diamonds, West ruffs and taps you again; then you must lead another diamond before the A, and West ruffs for the setting trick. Frustrating.

To succeed against 3-1 diamonds, you cannot afford to lose a tempo. Just lead diamonds from the top (Line D). It may get messy, but you should lose only three trump tricks. Suppose West ruffs the second diamond (if he pitches you can win 11 tricks) and shifts to a club (best) to dummy’s ace. Discard a club on the K, then cross to the A to reach this position:

win 5	9 8 6		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	8 5		7 S	8	Q	3	Q
	—		Declarer succeeds
	10 3
Q		K
Q 7 6		J 10
—		Q
K 8 5		Q J 9
	7 5
	—
	8 7 6 4 2
South leads	—

If West ruffs the 8, your diamonds are then good, and with two trumps still in hand you have control; East only makes his high trump; 10 tricks. If West discards on the 8, you ruff in dummy, then you can win 11 tricks by leading a trump; alternately, ruffing a club then leading a good diamond for either defender to ruff comes to 10 tricks.

Line D works just as well when East has the singleton diamond along with three trumps. (Nothing works if the hand with short diamonds has only two trumps.) If diamonds happen to be 2-2, you would revert to common technique and duck a trump, winning 11 tricks.

Of the inferior options, Line B (win A, duck a spade) gets second place as it allows you to succeed when East has the singleton diamond (the key being to lead the second diamond from dummy). Lines A and F are worse, as they always require diamonds 2-2; the only difference being that Line A brings 11 tricks and Line F only 10.

The misdirected Line C is like digging your own grave, failing even with diamonds 2-2, except for a few specific spade holdings (West with a doubleton including the 3 allow a successful scramble). Line E (duck a diamond) is the worst, as I don’t think it can ever succeed.

Comments for D. Ruff; win A-K

Tonci Tomic: Hearts are 5-4; if spades are 4-1, I cannot make it; if diamonds are 2-2, it’s easy. If diamonds are 3-1, then [the player with the singleton] must have three spades.

Zahary Zahariev: And make the contract if diamonds are 2-2 or 3-1 with three spades and one diamond in one hand.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: There is no way to make if trumps are 4-1; so assume trumps are 3-2. This will make whenever diamonds are 2-2 (by ducking a trump if all follow) or even with diamonds 3-1 when the stiff diamond is with three spades. …

Sergey Kustarov: I will succeed if diamonds are 2-2 or either defender has three spades and one diamond.

Rob Balas: I guess I am going to have a little talk to partner about bidding after I bring this miracle home. … I guess it’s Christmas, so let’s hope Santa brought our presents early. I need trumps to be 3-2 and diamonds no worse than 3-1. … Furthermore, if diamonds are 3-1, the hand with one diamond must have three trumps. Timing is critical… I need to ruff and lead the top diamonds. If no ruff then it is easy… If it gets ruffed, it now becomes the battle of ruff and counter-ruff. A club return for the defense is best (should have led one!); win A; cash K to pitch the club; then lead a spade to ace and [continue] diamonds, letting the enemy ruff again; then I ruff and push diamonds.

Frances Hinden: … I need spades 3-2, and diamonds 2-2 or 3-1 with the long diamonds with the short spades. This is the only option that always makes in [the last] scenario.

N. Scott Cardell: This looks mundane or perhaps foolish at first glance, but it is the only way to maintain a key tempo. I should make the contract whenever trumps are 3-2, and diamonds 2-2 or 3-1 with the short diamonds in the same hand as the long trump. [Play sequence described]. …

Radu Mihai: I need trumps 3-2, and diamonds 2-2 or 3-1 with short diamonds together with long trumps.

John Reardon: If diamonds are 3-1, I must hope the hand short in diamonds has three spades.

Andrew de Sosa: Spades must be 3-2. If diamonds are 2-2, several lines should work; if 3-1, the singleton diamond must be with three spades. In the last case, Line D succeeds against any defense; but other lines allow a forcing defense to prevent me from both setting up and enjoying the long diamonds.

Julian Pottage: I’m down anyway if spades are 4-1 or if the short trump hand has a singleton diamond. This caters to three trumps and one diamond in the same hand.

Erkki Malkamaki: If [the second diamond] is ruffed from three-card spades, I am still home.

Manuel Paulo: If trumps break 5-0 or 4-1, or if diamonds break 4-0, I can’t find any successful play. When trumps break well, and diamonds break 3-1 (the singleton being in the hand with three spades) or 2-2, the simple plan is to ruff and play diamonds from the top.

Rainer Herrmann: Trumps must break… and this will make if diamonds are 2-2 or if the one who has a singleton diamond holds three spades. All other lines look worse to me.

Anthony Golding: I’m particularly attracted to this line because it says, “Win A-K” so they must be 2-2. :) Even if they’re not, I seem to run out of trumps too early on all other lines, and this way they may run out first.

Frans Buijsen: Basically, I am planning to draw trump just once and accept [the loss of] three diamonds ruffs. …

Nicola Farina: If diamonds break 3-1, I hope three spades are in the hand with the singleton diamond.

Tim DeLaney: This deal looks like a lesson to demonstrate why aces are so valuable.

Neelotpal Sahai: As long as the person with longer trumps is ruffing, it doesn’t harm. …

Florentin Axinte: Another West’s mistake? I guess that a club lead (at least on a normal layout) is fatal. I need a 3-2 trump split, a sine qua non condition, and now close my eyes and cross my fingers and cash A-K. … If [someone] ruffs, I have the good chance that it is from three trumps — end of the story.

Don’t waste that “sine qua non” stuff on me… I never liked trigonometry to begin with.

Neil Morgenstern: Control is of optimal importance. I must set up my long suit while maintaining trump control. If East has a singleton diamond (with three trumps) and ruffs the second diamond and leads a club, I win; discard a club; trump to the ace and ruff a diamond. East can overruff, but West’s high trump will be their last trick. If West has the singleton diamond and three trumps, it works similarly…

Leonard Helfgott: I must force a defender before they can shorten me again. … If diamonds are 3-1 and the long trump hand ruffs (if the short trump hand ruffs, no hope) I can win club; pitch club loser on heart; lead to A and ruff a diamond…

Final Notes

Thanks to all who responded, and especially those who offered holiday greetings and/or kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected from those above average, and on each problem only those supporting the correct solution or close seconds. While this might be considered biased, I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are flawed. On this basis, I included over 75 percent of the eligible comments. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly except for corrections in spelling and grammar. Where I have included only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) indicates where text was cut. Text in [brackets] was supplied by me to summarize a cut portion or fix an omission. Comments are listed in order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing. I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems, assisted by comments received, has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

Well, the holidays are over, and all that remains are few gingerbread crumbs:

Anthony Golding: Lets hope the Grinch doesn’t steal too many marks.

Harvey Jaffe: Tough set of problems! Instead of sugarplums, it should be “Visions of Poisonous Poinsettias!”

Richard Stein: It appears West would have benefited from your contest last February on opening leads!

Judy Nahmias: I enjoyed the quiz very much. Thank you! Thought it was worthwhile mentioning that Moshe White from Israel is only 13 years old and learning the game at school.

Wow, that is impressive; I see he scored well over average this month, too. Interesting curricula you have in Israel! Moshe learns bridge in school, and I flunked out of college because of it.

Analyses 7X16 Main Challenge

Scores Top Visions of Sugar Plums

© 2002 Richard Pavlicek