Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge

The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

by Richard Pavlicek

These six play problems were published on the Internet in October 2002 as a contest open to all bridge players. As declarer on each problem, you had to choose your line of play from the choices offered.

Problem 1 2 3 4 5 6 Final Notes

Shortly After Midnight

You hear faint voices calling out, “Hello? Hello? Are you all right?”

Slowly you regain consciousness and are blinded by flashlight beams as a group of men approach you. “Where am I?” you ask in a state of delirium. “Where’s the gray ship? The Captain? And Patch?”

“I don’t know what you mean,” replied Commander Hollings of the U.S. Coast Guard. “Our radar shows no other vessel in this area for the past 24 hours. We are following up a report that a yacht is overdue in port, and we find you lying here on the deck unconscious.” The Commander then aims his flashlight at your shirt pocket and reaches down to pull out a wad of $500 bills. “I hope you can explain this illegal currency.”

You start to count it. Incredible… over 30,000 dollars! Then you remember the six games at 10 dollars a point. Could they really have paid you? “And also,” continued the Commander, “Where are your shoes? It seems pretty strange to be wearing only socks. I’m afraid we’ll have to take you into custody until we can sort this all out.”

Epilogue

Nobody believed your story, of course. The money turned out to be counterfeit, and your shoes were never found. The Coast Guard impounded your yacht (material evidence they claim). As you now await trial for money laundering, you might as well stick around to read the analyses of the hands you played — or think you played. Indeed, you may never know.

Frances Hinden Wins!

This contest had 662 entrants from 100 locations, and the average score was 39.66. You’re becoming too good, as there were 13* perfect scores this month. Congratulations to Frances Hinden (Surrey, England) who was first off the ghost ship. Also scoring 60 were Gabriel Nita-Saguna (Willowdale, Ontario); Brian Lee (Cambridge, Massachusetts); N. Scott Cardell (Pullman, Washington); Walter Lee (Hong Kong); Graham Osborne (Surrey, England); Tonci Tomic (Croatia); Wojtek Siwiec (Poland); Charles Blair (Urbana, Illinois); Jonathan Weinstein (Cambridge, Massachusetts); Radu Mihai (Bucharest, Romania); Piotr Beling (Poland); and Leah Cohen (Austin, Texas). Whew! A lot of familiar names, so I might as well say: Round up the usual suspects.

*Interesting number. Maybe I should have expected that from the Halloween theme. Even the average score of 39.66 has an ominous look, and I almost hit 666 participants — wouldn’t that have been frightening.

The overall standings became a photo finish this month, with three players sporting a 57.50 average. John Reardon (London, England UK) gets the top spot by my tiebreaking method; second place goes to Gabriel Nita-Saguna, and third to N. Scott Cardell.

Since I began these monthly events over two years ago, there have been 13 bidding polls and 13 play contests. Altogether these drew 13,423 entries, comprising 2,738 different persons from 73 countries. Curiously only five persons have participated in all 26 events. My special thanks go to Charles Blair, Bill Cubley, James Hudson, Josh Sinnett (all US) and Meelis Tiitson (Estonia).

I considered it almost “required viewing” to see the movie Ghost Ship that opened on October 25. What a disappointment; unbelievable, and too gory. If you haven’t seen it, save your money. Two thumbs down. -PavCo and Ebert

Bidding is standard (except as noted) and your opponents use standard leads and signals.
For a reference see Standard American Bridge. Assume all players are experts.

Each problem offered six plausible lines of play. The merit of each is scored on a 1-to-10 scale based on my judgment, which may be influenced by comments received.

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 1

Chicago Scoring None Vul	K Q 5 3 6 3 A J 10 6 3 K J		Captain `West` Pass Pass	Patch `NORTH` 1 1 3 NT	Shipmate `East` Pass Pass All Pass	You `South` 1 2 NT
Lead: J		East plays 2
3 NT South	A 4 Q 10 8 7 K 5 4 A 10 6 3

Play Award Votes Percent
B. Win K; run the J 10 335 51
E. Win A; A; run the J 8 148 22
D. Win A; K; run the J 7 25 4
F. Win A; K; finesse J 4 112 17
C. Win K; run the J 3 34 5
A. Win K; lead 3 to eight 2 8 1

Play	Award	Votes	Percent
B. Win K; run the J	10	335	51
E. Win A; A; run the J	8	148	22
D. Win A; K; run the J	7	25	4
F. Win A; K; finesse J	4	112	17
C. Win K; run the J	3	34	5
A. Win K; lead 3 to eight	2	8	1

With seven top tricks it is easy to establish two more in diamonds (barring a 5-0 break). The danger is that the opponents may be able to take four heart tricks, but this is possible only if you lose the lead to East. Therefore, you must try to finesse diamonds into West to protect your heart holding. Consider this layout:

Chicago Scoring K Q 5 3 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
None Vul 6 3 1 W J 3? 2 A
A J 10 6 3 2 S 4 2 A 7
K J 3 N J Q! K 2
J 10 9 7 Table 8 6 2 4 S 5 5 10 8
A J 9 4 K 5 2 5 N 3 9 3 7
2 Q 9 8 7 6 E 2! 10 J 3
9 7 5 2 Q 8 4 7 W 4 6 K 7
A 4 8 E 5 8 9 5
Q 10 8 7 9 W A 6 6 Q
K 5 4 Declarer fails
3 NT South A 10 6 3

Of the six options, three of them (Lines B, D and E) involve the right strategy in diamonds; but only one is foolproof. Suppose you follow Line E as shown above. This works fine if East ducks the J (cash the K and run the J); but if he covers, it removes a crucial entry to your hand, which prevents you from reverting to clubs. A similar problem occurs after Line D.

The majority of respondents were on the money, choosing Line B (win K; run J) which guarantees the contract against any distribution and any defense. If East covers the J, win the king; then win the K and run the J. Because of the A entry to your hand, and two diamond entries to dummy, you can always untangle your tricks. In the rare event that East shows out* on the J, you would win the king then play clubs as above to ensure nine tricks with the proven diamond finesse.

*A few respondents remarked they were unsure as to what extent they were committed when choosing a particular line. Listed options (A-F) indicate your intention under usual circumstances. For example, “Run the J” presumes that East follows with a low diamond. If East shows out, you are not obliged to run the jack. Similarly, if East plays the queen, you can certainly win it — although being on a ghost ship, it might be just an apparition.

If the J holds (both following), there are several sure paths to success. You could make the same club play, but it seems better to continue with a diamond to the king. If diamonds split 3-2, you have an overtrick. If West shows out, you can revert to clubs at no risk since dummy’s diamond entry cannot be removed without giving you the whole diamond suit.

Lines D and E are next best. The edge goes to Line E because it secures the contract when East has all five diamonds (postpone the diamond finesse and switch to clubs) plus it gains an overtrick if either player has a blank Q.

The remaining lines are poor. Line F offers the best chance for five diamond tricks but grossly jeopardizes the contract. Line C attacks the wrong suit (if the club finesse loses, you have only eight tricks). Line A seems to be aiding the enemy, though it might develop a trick or have a psychological benefit.

Comments for B. Win K; run the J

Frances Hinden: [This is] 100 percent for nine tricks.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: I need to develop two tricks in diamonds and maybe clubs. I must avoid losing a trick in a minor to East, as I may lose four more immediate tricks in case West started with K-J-9-x or A-J-9-x. … Line B seems to be 100-percent safe even when an opponent has four or five diamonds… It also preserves communication ( A) that may be necessary if I need to finesse [for] the Q (when East covers the J).

N. Scott Cardell: … The dangers that I need to avert are losing four hearts and a minor trick, or losing two minor tricks and three hearts. … If East has Q-x-x-x (or all five), he should cover to take out my K entry… This only leaves the A as a possible late hand entry, so Line B is the only [sure play]. …

Graham Osborne: Finessing into the safe hand. If East shows out on the first diamond, I change horses by winning the K and switching to clubs. A 100-percent line.

Tonci Tomic: Contract is laydown as long as East is not on lead. I will need the A for communication if diamonds [break badly].

Charles Blair: If East shows out, win K and play on clubs. If the J wins, cash the A and play clubs.

Radu Mihai: I need [two more] tricks in the minors without letting East to win. If East covers (or discards), win the K and play the K-J, intending to take the finesse. …

Paulino Correa: If West has A-J-9-x [or K-J-9-x], I will go down if East gets the lead in a different suit, losing four heart tricks. … Taking the first trick in dummy and running the J immediately preserves entries that may be necessary later. … If East discards on the first diamond (or covers with the queen), I win the K [and switch to clubs].

Rob Balas: …I need to keep East off lead. I also need to worry about getting to hand to potentially cash clubs, so I have to win the K. …

Malcolm Ewashkiw: … The danger is that West will hold A-J-9-x and East K-x-x (or A-K switched); East, therefore, becomes the danger hand and I must finesse through him. If diamonds are 4-1, I must revert to clubs, playing the king then the jack. Line E seems similar to Line B but is not; it fouls the entries in the event of a 4-1 diamond break.

Daniel Korbel: Happily, this isn’t matchpoints. Playing this way I’m cold no matter what happens, even against ghosts. …

Are you sure about that? What if they lead a slimy green suit?

Leif-Erik Stabell: Keeps communication open to run the J next, even if East covers with Q-9-8-7.

Ron Small: This seems to handle any [distribution]. If West has five diamonds, I will know it [and win] the K; if East has five, the finesse works.

Gareth Birdsall: This is 100 percent. If East covers or shows out, I win the king and switch to clubs, making three tricks [each] in spades, diamonds and clubs.

Hanchang Wang: (1) If East has no diamonds, win K, K then run J (use A entry to cash clubs and hook diamond). (2) If East plays low, let the J run; if it loses I have [nine tricks]; if it wins, then K, run J. (3) If East covers with the Q, win K, K then J.

Sriram Narasimhan: Only a heart lead from East [could] lead to four heart losers, so West is the safe hand (eliminates Lines A and F). At least three diamond tricks are necessary (eliminates Line C). If diamonds are not breaking, Lines D and E run into [entry] problems… Line B is 100 percent. …

Franco Baseggio: A 100-percent line (play K, of course, if East covers or shows out). If the J loses, I have nine tricks; if it wins, switch to K then J.

Rainer Herrmann: This guarantees the contract. The A is required as a late entry in the scenario where East has no diamonds [or covers with the queen].

Sivakumar Salem: The crux of the hand is to avoid East winning, so the lethal heart shift is prevented. I need to develop two tricks. For entry sake, I win the K and run the J. If the J is covered, I win the king; then the K and run the J…

Toby Kenney: The only danger is losing four heart tricks, which is impossible unless I lose the lead to East. If the diamond finesse loses, I have four diamond tricks, making nine tricks in total. Otherwise, I will cash the K and run the J.

Matej Accetto: If the J loses to the Captain’s queen, I’m home with four diamonds, three spades and two clubs. If East is void, I win the K, play to the K and run J. If the J holds, I plan to switch to the J. It’s a jack-eat-jack game, after all.

John Reardon: This looks to be 100 percent. If the J holds or is covered by East, I will next play the K and run the J. I must make at least three spades, three diamonds and three clubs.

Rob Stevens: Sure trick problem… If diamonds break, I have nine tricks and East-West at most four. If West shows out, set up a third club, keeping East off lead. If East shows out, win K and play on clubs, later taking the known diamond finesse.

Sergey Kustarov: Problem is A-J-9-x or K-J-9-x in West. [Running] the J is an avoidance play. [I must preserve] the A entry in case East has Q-x-x-x [and covers]. If the J takes the trick, my next lead is the J.

Leon Jacobs: A 100-percent play. If West wins, nine tricks. If the J holds, shift to the K and run the J. South must keep the A to keep communication.

Perry Groot: The clue is South’s heart holding, which is a stopper as long as West is the first to attack the suit. Line B is 100 percent: [variations explained].

Richard Stein: I dislike the idea of the evil Captain on lead, but just how much can he do? In contrast, if I took the A, played to the A and the Captain’s partner were unkind enough to pitch, I could easily become shark bait.

Dale Freeman: I cannot let East in (four heart tricks possible). If the J loses, I have three spades, four diamonds and two clubs. If the J wins or the queen covers, I [switch] to clubs [to ensure] three spades, three diamonds and three clubs. If East shows out, I win the K and go to clubs…

Paulinho Brum: Nice deal. If it wins or is covered, I play the K and [run the] J, and the contract is guaranteed. This is the kind of super safety play I never make in real life. :(

Len Vishnevsky: In case West has J-10-9 A-J-x Q-9-8-7-2 Q-x, I need the A [entry] to enjoy my clubs after K; J to king; K; J to queen…

Quentin Stephens: I have a weak spot in hearts, but that’s OK as long as the lead is with West, and I need the diamonds to make the contract.

Barry Rigal: The only danger is that East wins an early diamond and leads a low heart from A-x-x or K-x-x. If the diamond finesse wins, I have a 100-percent line by passing the J.

Cenk Tuncok: The only danger is West holding A-J-9-x or K-J-9-x, so the diamond should be [lost] to West to prevent being finessed twice in hearts.

Moshe White: I don’t want East to lead a heart. This way, if West has the Q, I only lose three hearts and a diamond…

Ron Landgraff: This caters to [any distribution]. I can switch to clubs as appropriate.

Tim DeLaney: If West doesn’t win the Q, play on clubs for a ninth trick. If East shows out, win the K then play on clubs.

Daniel Auby: If East covers the J with the queen (or shows out), I win the K and play the K and run the J. This appears to be 100 percent.

Thijs Veugen: I don’t want East on lead to play hearts, and I have to be careful with my communication. If East plays the Q (maybe from four cards), I continue with the K and a club finesse.

Bob Boudreau: [This always] works, even versus a 5-0 break either way. If East shows out, win the K and play K-J to ensure three tricks in each minor. A great hand to show the value of 10s in [three] suits…

Julian Wightwick: If East follows and West wins the Q, I have nine tricks. If the J wins, I’ll play K-J to make certain of the ninth trick. If East shows out on the first round, I’ll win the K, then play two rounds of clubs, taking the diamond finesse later. This last case [or if East covers with Q-x-x-x or more] is when I need to keep A in hand.

Bill Powell: If four diamonds don’t materialize immediately, I’ll go for three diamonds and three clubs.

Jojo Sarkar: West is the safe hand. [If the J loses], this gives me three spades, four diamonds and two clubs. On a 5-0 diamond split [or if East has Q-x-x-x], entries must be managed carefully, and a club finesse taken.

Rich Pavlicek: If the J holds or is covered, I must switch to clubs while I still have the protected diamond entry to dummy and the A entry to my hand.

Gyorgy Ormay: To keep them in dusk… but maybe Line A works better against ghosts.

Harold Simon: West can’t beat me in hearts if he wins the Q. If the diamond break is foul, [I can always] bring home three club tricks.

Roger Morton: Only a heart lead from East can [cost me] four heart tricks. Running the J at trick two keeps entries fluid so I can still unscramble a third club if diamonds don’t break.

Jack Lacy: The only way to go down is for the opponents to take four heart tricks after winning a trick, and [this cannot be done] starting from the West chair. If the J wins, I play the K-J.

Arpan Banerjee: With seven top tricks, I need to develop two more… and the best way is to run the J to keep East off lead. If it loses, the opponents [might] cash three heart tricks but no more.

Shyam Sashital: The opponents [might] make four heart tricks if East gets the lead; hence, finesse through East. If it wins, I’d switch to the K, followed by running the J.

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 2

Chicago Scoring E-W Vul	J 6 4 2 9 7 2 5 4 2 A 6 5		Captain West Dbl All Pass	Patch `North` 2	Shipmate EAST Pass 4	You `South` 1 4
Lead: K		East plays Q
4 South	A K 7 5 3 6 A K J 6 3 8 2

West next leads the 8 to East’s 10 and you ruff. You cash the A and West plays the Q.

Next Play Award Votes Percent
A. Win K; J; lead 2 to jack 10 184 28
C. Win J; lead 2 to jack 9 67 10
D. Win J; duck a diamond 8 71 11
B. Win K; duck a diamond 6 74 11
E. Win A; J; lead 2 4 217 33
F. Win A; duck a diamond 3 49 7

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
A. Win K; J; lead 2 to jack	10	184	28
C. Win J; lead 2 to jack	9	67	10
D. Win J; duck a diamond	8	71	11
B. Win K; duck a diamond	6	74	11
E. Win A; J; lead 2	4	217	33
F. Win A; duck a diamond	3	49	7

The obvious problem is how to establish diamonds after West’s takeout double suggests at least Q-10-x-x behind you. This is further evidenced by East’s jump to 4 , which rates to be based on shape, probably short in diamonds. Instinctive strategy in situations like this is to cash one top diamond, then lead the second diamond from dummy, forcing East to play first — so he must either ruff a loser or discard and let you win the trick. But is this really necessary?

No, it is not. It may seem like you can’t afford to draw trumps, but this is an illusion. What did you expect being on a ghost ship? While it is true that a subsequent heart lead will remove your last trump, it doesn’t matter. Consider a typical layout:

Chicago Scoring J 6 4 2 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
E-W Vul 9 7 2 1 W K 2 Q 6
5 4 2 2 W 8 9 10 3
A 6 5 3 S A Q 2 10
Q Table 10 9 8 4 S K! 3 4 8
A K 8 Q J 10 5 4 3 5 S 5 4 J 9
Q 10 9 7 8 6 N 2 8 J! Q
K J 10 4 3 Q 9 7 7 W A 7 3 7
A K 7 5 3 8 S 3! 7 4 4
6 Declarer succeeds
A K J 6 3
4 South 8 2

After ruffing the second heart and cashing the A, simply draw trumps ending in dummy and take the diamond finesse (Line A). West must return a heart to create a problem, then the sure-trick solution is to ruff* and duck a diamond. This ensures the remaining diamonds will be good to pitch both of dummy’s low clubs. (If instead, West shifts to a club, just win the ace and establish diamonds with a ruff.)

*In the actual layout discarding a club would also work, but this fails if the opponents could lead another heart.

Lines B, C and D are also foolproof against a 4-1 diamond break if followed up properly. So why is Line A better? The big edge comes when diamonds are 5-0. Only Line A forces West to discard twice before he has any information about your minor-suit pattern, so he is likely to pitch a diamond from five; and even if he discards perfectly, you can develop an endplay against some layouts.* Obviously, if East shows out on the first diamond (and West has kept all five), you would not finesse the jack but win it and lead a club to prepare for an endplay.

*The success of the endplay depends on the clubs. If East can gain the lead twice in clubs, it can be foiled with accurate defense; but if West’s clubs are, say, K-J-10-9, there is no defense.

Lines C and D are only slightly inferior and earn second and third place. I gave the edge to Line C only because of the remote chance that the diamond finesse might win, netting 12 tricks; while Line D produces only 10, as you are obliged to duck a second diamond to ensure the contract. Note that the aforementioned endplay is still possible after Lines C and D because you will see East show out before you finesse the J or duck; hence, you can change tack. With Line B, however, the duck is committal, and your endplay chances vanish (like some ships around here); so it gets only fourth place.

Line E was the popular choice, no doubt because of the instinctive aspect I alluded to earlier. Unfortunately, besides losing outright to a 5-0 diamond break, it’s not even safe against a 4-1 break. The play is worth a closer look:

Chicago Scoring J 6 4 2 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
E-W Vul 9 7 2 1 W K 2 Q 6
5 4 2 2 W 8 9 10 3
A 6 5 3 S A Q 2 10
Q Table 10 9 8 4 S A? 7 2 8
A K 8 Q J 10 5 4 3 5 S 5? 3 J 8
Q 10 9 7 8 6 N 4 7 K? 9
K J 10 4 3 Q 9 7 7 S 3 10 5 9
A K 7 5 3 8 W Q 5 Q 6
6 9 W K A 9 2
A K J 6 3 Declarer fails
4 South 8 2

When you lead a diamond at Trick 6, East pitches a club. If you win the K and continue diamonds, East pitches another club; then the Q leaves you in a hopeless predicament. If you ruff, East overruffs; if you pitch a club, so does East to get a club ruff. To succeed, you must duck the second diamond; then on a heart return, ruff, draw the last trump, and duck a club to eventually squeeze West. If clubs were 4-4, however, you must win the second diamond, as the squeeze will not work if East guards the third club. In other words, you need to guess the distribution. A similar case exists with Line F.

Comments for A. Win K; J; lead 2 to jack

Frances Hinden: All lines [can] make with diamonds 4-1. Line A [has] chances of a throw-in if diamonds are 5-0 (I will play the A not the jack if East discards). Also, this [could] make 12 tricks!

N. Scott Cardell: Draw trumps, not only for safety but to squeeze West before giving away the distribution… (the only real danger is that West has five diamonds). If East follows to the first diamond, the finesse is just for fun… so suppose East discards. [Endplay strategy described].

Graham Osborne: This enables me to make against some 5-0 diamond breaks (4-1 splits are easy). It depends on the degree of blockage in the club suit.

Tonci Tomic: Unless diamonds are 5-0 (again) — in that case I will win the A [and lead a club]. By the way, West must be a wizard to keep all [five] diamonds on two spade rounds. If [East follows to the first diamond] and the J loses to the queen, on a heart return I will ruff with my last trump and play a small diamond. On a club return, it’s easy.

Charles Blair: If East shows out (otherwise much easier), I win the A. West has three non-diamonds at this point; the difficult case is when they are all clubs. I hope I can lose a club to West and eventually exit with a diamond. Are supernatural figures allowed to misdefend? A club at trick two would probably set me if the Captain has five diamonds.

Radu Mihai: East cannot have many points, so he must have some distribution; and the only short suit he can possibly have is diamonds. If East discards on the first diamond, I win the ace and have to guess what are West’s three non-diamond cards: If two clubs and one heart, I can extract these cards and eventually throw him in; if all clubs, I can [succeed] only if they are K-Q-x, K-J-10, or Q-J-10. If East has one diamond, I’ll duck twice in diamonds and the contract will be easily made. Line A is a little better than Lines C and D because it forces West to make a second discard before seeing the diamond position. The other lines give no chance if diamonds are 5-0, and the last two may lose the contract even with diamonds 4-1 (if East has only three clubs, he will discard all his clubs on diamonds and receive a club ruff).

Paulino Correa: … To allow for the [likely] 4-1 diamond break… If the diamond finesse loses and a heart is returned, I will ruff in hand, duck a diamond and claim. If a club is returned, win the A, A-K, ruff a diamond and claim. …

Leif-Erik Stabell: [Lines A through D] all succeed with diamonds 4-1 offside, either by ducking a second diamond (if they continue hearts) or ruffing out the diamonds (if they switch to clubs). Line A gives a chance with diamonds 5-0 if West has something like Q A-K-8-x Q-10-9-8-7 K-J-10. When East shows out, win the A and duck a club. Best defense is for East to win and continue hearts, but even if West can discard a diamond on the third heart (having discarded hearts earlier), he will be endplayed in clubs, provided his clubs are high enough.

Ron Small: On a heart return, I ruff and duck another diamond (losing two diamonds and one heart). On a club return, I win and establish diamonds (losing one diamond, one heart and one club).

Gareth Birdsall: [Lines A through D] cater to picking up 4-1 diamonds by [losing] a diamond, then ducking a second round on a heart return, or ruffing out diamonds on a club return. There is a legitimate chance of making if West is 1=3=5=4 with four of the top five clubs since he will be thrown in to give me a third diamond trick. Line A is better than Lines C or D because it puts West to two early discards — he may well go wrong by discarding a diamond or two clubs, or fail to [unblock] in clubs (e.g., from K-J-10-x), any of which is fatal.

Hanchang Wang: If diamonds are no worse than 4-1, all lines [can] work. If West has five diamonds, playing two more trumps will put him under pressure, giving an opportunity to throw a diamond.

Zahary Zahariev: No way to go down if diamonds are 4-1 (or 3-2 of course). If West has Q-10-9-8-7, I still have a chance. All I need is a special club position (e.g., K-J-10-9 in West); if East can’t overtake West’s cards more than once, I’m home.

Steve White: I may as well play for the overtrick. Barring diamonds 5-0, I can’t see what can go wrong. Even if West wins and forces me with a heart, I can just duck a diamond next…

Toby Kenney: If diamonds are 4-1, this guarantees the contract: On a club return, cash A-K and ruff out the last diamond… On a heart return, ruff and duck a diamond, leaving the A as an entry (the club losers can be pitched on the diamonds). If diamonds are 5-0, some sort of strip squeeze will be needed, and forcing West to discard early increases the chance of a mistake…

Imre Csiszar: If West wins and continues hearts, I can ruff and duck a diamond. The contract is safe unless diamonds are 5-0.

Dale Rudrum: … If diamonds split 4-1 (or 3-2), all plays can lead to 10 tricks if I follow through in the right order. The real problem is West with five diamonds. As I have never mentioned my diamonds, it is entirely possible that West will ditch a diamond when I force two discards on him. Even expert opponents can’t see through the cards.

I don’t think this holds against expert ghosts… Or even Superman, for that matter.

Paulinho Brum: This guarantees the contract unless diamonds are 5-0. Against a heart return, I can duck a diamond; against a club return, I have entries to establish the fifth diamond by ruffing if necessary. I confess I stopped looking for a better line… and it was the first option, also! Am I supposed to be looking for overtricks against the mighty Captain?

Leonard Helfgott: If the defense forces out my last trump with a heart, I duck another diamond. If the defense knocks out the A, I can ruff out the diamond guard with dummy’s last trump and reenter [my hand] with a heart ruff to score the long diamond.

Donald MacMillan: This guarantees the contract as long as diamonds are no worse than 4-1.

Tim DeLaney: Lines A, B, C and D all work unless West has five diamonds, but Line A preserves overtrick chances. If West wins the first diamond [and returns a heart], I ruff and duck a diamond.

Rich Pavlicek: If diamonds are 4-1 (or 3-2), this is easy. If West has five diamonds, I should pay attention to his two discards on the trumps, and it’s possible I will be able to endplay him later.

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 3

Chicago Scoring N-S Vul	A 7 5 A 2 10 6 5 4 2 K J 2		Captain `West` Pass Pass	Patch North 1 3 NT	Shipmate `East` Pass All Pass	You SOUTH 1 1 NT
Lead: 6		East plays 7
3 NT South	J 9 3 K 9 K Q 8 A 9 6 5 4

You win the A and lead the 2 to the king; East plays the 3, West the 7.

Next Play Award Votes Percent
A. Lead 3 to ace 10 89 13
E. Lead 4 to king 8 178 27
B. Lead the Q 6 114 17
C. Lead the 8 5 36 5
F. Lead 4 to jack 3 177 27
D. Win A; lead 4 to jack 2 68 10

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
A. Lead 3 to ace	10	89	13
E. Lead 4 to king	8	178	27
B. Lead the Q	6	114	17
C. Lead the 8	5	36	5
F. Lead 4 to jack	3	177	27
D. Win A; lead 4 to jack	2	68	10

When the K wins, your chances are excellent since the ace is almost surely with East. (West would seldom hold up since you are unlikely to have a second-round diamond guess and may be stealing a ninth trick from K-x-x or K-x.) The problem is to find the best way to return to dummy for a second diamond lead because, if diamonds break 3-2, you are home without needing the club suit. It feels right to cross to the K (Line E), which indeed was the consensus view. Consider this layout:

Chicago Scoring A 7 5 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
N-S Vul A 2 1 W 6 A 7 9
10 6 5 4 2 2 N 2 3 K 7
K J 2 3 S 4? 7 K 3
K 10 2 Table Q 8 6 4 4 N 4 A 8 9
Q 10 8 6 5 J 7 4 3 5 E 4! 9 10 5
J 9 7 A 3 6 W K 7 6 3
8 7 Q 10 3 7 W 2 A 8 J
J 9 3 Declarer fails
K 9
K Q 8
3 NT South A 9 6 5 4

After winning the K, a second diamond goes to East’s ace. Alas, the situation is now an open book; East can count you have nine tricks (one spade, two hearts, four diamonds, two clubs) with a heart return, so his only hope is a spade switch to remove dummy’s entry before you can unblock the Q. Then your ship is sunk (or maybe that’s good news for a ghost ship). There is no way to use the long diamonds, and the opponents have five total tricks if you concede a club.

One way around this is to lead diamonds from your hand, hoping to guess whether the ace or jack is doubleton; and if it fails, you still have the chance to run the club suit with a finesse. Too desperate; prospects are brighter than that.

The proper play is easy to miss because it goes against the grain of normal technique. At Trick 3 you should cross to dummy with a spade (Line A). While this leaves the spade suit wide open, it is inconceivable that the opponents could win more than three spade tricks and the A. (If East held K-Q-x-x-x and the A, he would have overcalled 1 ; and with a weaker five-card suit, the spades would be blocked.) In with the A, East is helpless to defeat you since the K entry is untouchable.

Second place goes to Line E, which certainly has good chances. It will succeed (1) if East has the K-10 or Q-10, and sometimes just the 10, (2) if the Q drops, or (3) if the player with the club stopper does not have the long spade (after holding up in spades you will play ace and another club).

Lines B and C are fair and pretty close, each retaining the best chance to win five clubs, while adding the extra chance of catching a doubleton J or A (pick one). Line B seems fractionally better, as East might have won the A from A-3 but not A-9-3*; plus the voting also favored Line B.

*Psychological considerations also exist. A strong East player might falsecard with the nine from A-9-3, so the appearance of the three favors Line C. But then, if East held A-3, West would have J-9-7, and he might have falsecarded, so the appearance of the seven favors Line B. In theory these cat-and-mouse tactics balance out; but for most players the falsecard from J-9-7 behind declarer is more likely than from A-9-3 in front, which again favors Line B.

Lines D and F are poor, essentially committing the contract to a favorable club lie. The edge goes to Line F because the fluidity in clubs might save the day on some layouts; e.g., if West has K-Q-x Q-10-x-x-x x Q-10-x-x, you will succeed (but not with Line D). Line D only caters to a blank Q with East; but even then you need diamonds 3-2, which becomes unlikely (East probably would have acted with nine or more cards in the majors).

Comments for A. Lead 3 to ace

Frances Hinden: Very, very difficult… I believe Lines A, B and C are both slightly over 50 percent, and Line F slightly under; Lines D and E are clearly worse. It depends on how likely West was to duck with the A, and how likely they are to untangle their diamond and spade tricks if they have them; but it is unlikely East has both the A and K-Q-x-x-x, as he passed over 1 .

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: Apparently this is a dangerous line, but let’s not forget the psychological aspect of the game. I need to preserve the chance of winning five club tricks (by finessing the jack) in case [diamonds are foul]. From the bidding it seems impossible that either defender started with K-Q-x-x-x and the A. The real danger is when West started with K-Q-x-x and A-J-x, but assuming he also has four or five hearts headed by a honor, he would surely have entered the auction. If the spade honors are split between defenders, it is very unlikely they will switch to spades after winning the second diamond; thus, I will get another shot by playing on clubs.

N. Scott Cardell: West would almost surely take the A if he had it. (He wouldn’t pass over 1 with all the outstanding strength, so he can’t know that you have the Q; and you could just need one diamond to make nine tricks.) … Line A guarantees the contract when diamonds work and spades can’t be run for four tricks, both of which are strong favorites (even on a priori grounds, 2/3 of the 3-2 diamond splits work for you.) If the diamonds don’t work, there are still [many] cases where you get a second chance, either because spades are blocked or because they can only take one diamond and three spades. Line E (Low to the K) suffers when East wins the A and knocks out the A. With Lines D and F, if you lose a club finesse you are down; so these can never be much above 50 percent.

Graham Osborne: In isolation, I don’t think there’s much between Line A and playing a diamond from hand. However, the lack of a spade lead or 1 overcall increases the chance of spades being 4-3. Also, if West wins the second diamond trick, he may not be able to read the position clearly.

Tonci Tomic: Hope that spades are 4-3 or that West has K-x or Q-x. Then, if diamonds behave it’s over; else I have to rely on the club finesse. I mustn’t play a club to the king because East will take the next diamond (say, from A-J-x) and return a spade to kill me.

Charles Blair: This one looks pretty complicated to me. Among other issues: With which holdings would the defenders have won the A on the first round?

Radu Mihai: … From the bidding (nobody bid 1 in spite of the vulnerability) and the lead it’s clear that, after winning the A, the opponents will not be able to take four spade tricks. So I need the remaining diamonds 2-1 with the ace in the East hand or a singleton jack (52.17 percent). If this doesn’t happen, it’s still possible the opponents cannot take two diamonds and three spades (spades [may be blocked] or East has A-J-x-x) and I can take five club tricks. This is [more than] enough to make up the difference versus Line B, [which I figure as] 53.23 percent.

Leah Cohen: A little trickery seems right for Halloween. Even against double-dummy defense, this is best. I have full chances for 3-2 diamonds (12 of the remaining 18 cases). If a defender holds A and K-Q-x-x-x, he would have overcalled. …

Rob Balas: … To maximize my chances, I need to get to the board in a way that will allow me to lead up to the Q (otherwise I halve my chances to bring home that suit). The problem is that I can’t use the club [entry] without wrecking my chances in clubs or taking a finesse I can’t afford to lose. Therefore, I need to chance the spade suit, and given the lack of [enemy] bidding [it’s a big favorite to succeed]. …

Malcolm Ewashkiw: I want to take advantage of a fortunate diamond position if it exists, and this seems to give the best chances. … If diamonds don’t materialize, I can fall back on the J finesse. …

Darek Kardas: I am not sure who the Captain is playing with, but having K-Q-x-x-x, J-x-x-x and something in diamonds he would have overcalled at the one level. So there is nothing to worry about. Clubs can wait.

Daniel Korbel: I don’t think anyone has K-Q-x-x-x because he would have overcalled, with or without the A. This is basically a percentage problem; and assuming they can’t run spades, this is the only line that plays diamonds and clubs to best effect.

Sriram Narasimhan: I need four diamonds and two clubs or one diamond and five clubs. Playing clubs first does not combine chances and so is inferior (eliminates Lines D, E and F). Unless four spades can be cashed (unlikely given the bidding), a spade to the ace (then a diamond) works best.

Franco Baseggio: Hopefully, diamonds will come in. If not, I can fall back on clubs. Layouts that lead to five fast tricks for the defense are unlikely on the auction.

Rainer Herrmann: Save the entry ( K) to dummy that cannot be prematurely attacked by the defense. This line may not require a club finesse if diamonds break. The defense is unlikely to damage the contract with spades alone.

Sivakumar Salem: I have two entries in dummy for a [second] diamond play; but if I enter via clubs, East can jump up with the A and lead spades to knock out the ace. If I enter via spades, dummy’s club entry can’t be knocked out; the only danger is if spades are 5-2, which is most unlikely.

Matej Accetto: This seems like an intuitive attempt to save my life after stealing two games from the Captain, but in fact is a counterintuitive attempt to make game by finessing again in diamonds. … If the Q wins or East rises with the ace, I’m home with diamonds 3-2, as opponents are very unlikely to be able to cash more than three spade tricks… If diamonds fail, I can still fall back on the club finesse unless opponents can cash both A-J and three spade tricks… How sneaky can those pirates get anyway?

Imre Csiszar: If West has the A, he might have taken it to clear hearts. If East has it, he cannot also have K-Q-x-x-x (did not overcall), thus this has little risk and may be necessary to save the club entry.

Michal Nowak: Most adverse spade distributions are excluded by the bidding and opening lead. The chance of four diamond tricks if played from dummy is now over 55 percent. Line E loses [to an effective spade switch]. Line B is better than Line C, not only psychologically but fewer undertricks if diamonds are all with East [and clubs don’t run].

John Reardon: I hope East has something like K-10-x-x J-x-x-x A-J-x Q-x, and I will make nine tricks (one spade, two hearts, four diamonds and two clubs). … If East has four diamonds, I will still succeed if West has Q-x-(x). The A rates to be with East, but I may well succeed even if West has ducked, for he does not know the spade position and will probably continue hearts.

Marcus Chiloarnus: I once went six-off trying to be clever on a hand like this when Filbert had ducked from A-J-x.

Rob Stevens: It seems very probable that the A is onside, because it cannot be very clear for West to duck the A. Given that probability, I should play to set up diamonds instead of relying on a diamond guess or the club finesse because it is almost impossible that the opponents can run four spade tricks (East would overcall with K-Q-x-x-x and A; and if West held K-Q-x-x-x and didn’t lead them, East will be hard pressed to guess that). [Line E is a close second choice] but risks defeat if East switches to a spade to knock out the A and set up the fourth round in the hand with the guarded Q. …

Richard Stein: Living dangerously, yes, but then it was rather daring to board this brig in the first place. Actually, this is safer than it looks. If West had five spades, he’d have a Michaels bid; if East had five, one of the defenders would have enough points to bid their suit. Even if the Cap’n were wicked enough to be trapping with A-J-x and the Q, that still [probably] gives him a 1 overcall.

Dale Rudrum: … Obviously, I have to try diamonds before switching to clubs. … Can I risk crossing in spades? This would greatly increase my chances in diamonds… and based on the absence of a spade bid by the opponents, I believe it is a gamble worth taking. If East dumps the Q under the ace, and proceeds with a small spade after winning the A, I will bow my head in awe.

Dale Freeman: Hopefully, I can get diamonds right, and they don’t have five tricks. If West had A-x and ducked, I will go wrong; but maybe he will continue hearts, and I can still get five club tricks.

Douglas Dunn: The lack of bidding by East-West and the lead suggest spades are 4-3, so this play should be safe — maybe.

Paulinho Brum: Hard to imagine the opposition taking four spades and a diamond with this bidding. If I lose two diamonds, maybe they won’t attack spades immediately, or maybe spades are blocked, and I still have the best chance for five club tricks later. A very hopeful line of play.

David Davies: I’ll pay out if spades are 5-2 and can run, but I don’t think it is very likely on the bidding. I’ll follow by playing on diamonds, and then clubs if diamonds don’t work.

Barry Rigal: I’m going to play for the A onside so I should be OK unless they can cash four spades — and even if they can, will they?

Sartaj Hans: Despite my long thought at the table, it will be very hard for West to play another spade if he had two small spades and the A. He will be busy congratulating himself on his successful diamond duck — I hope. :)

Daniel Auby: A doubleton A with East appears more probable than K-Q-x-x-x in either hand (on the bidding it is even impossible to find K-Q-x-x-x and A in the same hand).

Bob Boudreau: Sets up their spades tricks, but I hope for a 4-3 split or a doubleton honor. This keeps both minor-suit options open.

Mikko Sarela: I probably lose a maximum of three spade tricks. Now I can make a second try in diamonds, and if that fails… I can still make it with a nice club distribution.

Gerald Cohen: I hope to lose no more than three spades and one diamond. I need A-x-x, A-x or J-x onside; if not I can still hope for five club tricks.

Julian Wightwick: The question is: Would West have been able to duck at trick two holding the A? I doubt it… So this is my best chance of four diamond tricks, without giving up my chances of five club tricks. …

Bill Powell: I’ll risk possible embarrassment in spades to improve my diamond chances.

Ludmil Mirov: This way, I won’t give East the opportunity to shine by [switching to] spades.

Richard Higgins: This leaves chances to make by setting up either diamond or clubs — hope they stay with hearts.

Roger Morton: Rather than guess the doubleton diamond, I will lead a second diamond from the table. On this auction, spades will either be blocked or 4-3 (or they might not switch anyway), so I have the club suit in reserve.

Andrew de Sosa: This ensures an entry to the long diamond should the A be onside and diamonds split 3-2. Hopefully, nobody started with K-Q-x-x-x. If diamonds aren’t running and I’m not set in spades, I still have a shot at five club tricks.

Roger Allen: Would it not be better to play a diamond to the queen? It is more difficult for West to duck this.* …

*Roger brings up a controversial point. There are pros and cons for either tactic, and psychology plays a role. I don’t like the queen here because an expert West (holding A-J-x) can deduce you have K-Q, else East would have hopped with the king to preserve West’s entry (let alone that with Q-9-x, you would finesse the nine). But then, against ghosts you might as well table your hand. -RP

Pratap Nair: I believe that West would have overcalled at the one level with a decent five-card heart suit and the A. I am therefore going to back my instinct and go to dummy with a spade to lead another diamond. If I enter dummy with a club, East can hop with the A and return a spade [before I can unblock diamonds].

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 4

Chicago Scoring Both Vul	K Q 9 2 10 9 8 A 5 4 J 6 3		Captain WEST 1 3 All Pass	Patch North Pass 3	Shipmate East 1 NT Pass	You South 2 4
Lead: K		East plays J
4 South	10 5 A Q J 7 6 5 2 8 3 K 2

You duck and West leads the 6, won in dummy, as East plays the 7.
On the 10 East plays low. Note: West is void in hearts.

Next Play Award Votes Percent
E. Win 10; draw the missing trumps 10 142 21
F. Win 10; ruff diamond; lead 10 to king 7 246 37
A. Win Q; lead 10 to king; lead 9 6 87 13
D. Win 10; lead K and unblock 10 4 28 4
B. Win Q; lead 10 to king; ruff diamond 2 155 23
C. Win Q; lead K 1 4 1

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
E. Win 10; draw the missing trumps	10	142	21
F. Win 10; ruff diamond; lead 10 to king	7	246	37
A. Win Q; lead 10 to king; lead 9	6	87	13
D. Win 10; lead K and unblock 10	4	28	4
B. Win Q; lead 10 to king; ruff diamond	2	155	23
C. Win Q; lead K	1	4	1

West’s heart void is apparent from the bidding; West should have four spades (else East would respond 1 ) yet he bid both minors; so his shape should be 4=0=5=4, or possibly 4=0=4=5. West should also have both black aces to justify his opening bid and competition to the three level. Therefore, the layout shouldn’t be much different from:

Chicago Scoring K Q 9 2 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
Both Vul 10 9 8 1 W K 4 J 3
A 5 4 2 W 6 A 7 8
J 6 3 3 N 10 3 Q? 7
A 7 6 4 Table J 8 3 4 S 10 7 K 3
— K 4 3 5 N 9 4 2 4
K Q 9 6 2 J 10 7 6 N 5 10 5 2
A 10 8 7 Q 9 5 4 7 S 5 A 2 8
10 5 8 W Q!
A Q J 7 6 5 2 Declarer fails
8 3
4 South K 2

I gave East the J and Q to make the 1 NT response more palatable. The problem is the lack of entries to dummy. Even with the A onside, you won’t be able to enjoy two spade tricks because West will take his ace on the second round, leaving dummy high and dry. Your thoughts therefore turn to some kind of endplay.

Consider Line A above. East will duck the second heart, then you can ruff dummy’s remaining diamond and lead your last spade to West. Is he endplayed? No! He will lead a fourth diamond, then if you ruff in dummy, East will overruff to lock you in your hand. Down one.

Ah, so perhaps you must leave two hearts in dummy so when East overruffs the diamond, you can return to dummy with a heart. This can be achieved with Line B (win Q, 10 to king, ruff diamond). When you next lead a spade, West will win the ace. Is he endplayed? Well, yes and no. West will exit with ace and another club. The good news is you win the K; the bad news is you can’t get to dummy to repeat the finesse. Frustrating!

To succeed, you must maneuver to squeeze West, and this can only be accomplished with Line E:

Chicago Scoring K Q 9 2 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
Both Vul 10 9 8 1 W K 4 J 3
A 5 4 2 W 6 A 7 8
J 6 3 3 N 10 3 2 7
A 7 6 4 Table J 8 3 4 N 9 4 5 2
— K 4 3 5 N 8 K A 4
K Q 9 6 2 J 10 7 6 S Q 8 3 3
A 10 8 7 Q 9 5 4 7 S J Q 2 4
10 5 8 S 7 6 6 5
A Q J 7 6 5 2 continued below…
8 3
4 South K 2

After winning the second diamond, finesse and lead all but one trump to reach this ending:

win 3 K Q 9 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
— 9 S 10 7 K 8
5 10 N 5! 10 6 9
J 11 S 5 A 9 J
A 7 Table J 8 West is endplayed
— —
9 10
A 10 Q 9
10 5
6
—
South leads K 2

Note that West was obliged to keep two spades (else he can’t hold up the ace) and two clubs (else his ace falls on air) so he has room for only one diamond, and he unblocked the Q with vain hopes. Next lead the 10 to the king (West must duck), ruff the diamond, and exit with a spade to endplay West in clubs.

For the endplay to materialize it was crucial not to lead a spade or ruff a diamond early. If you did, you could not remove West’s exit card in diamonds, and the endplay would fail. Hence, Lines A, D and F would fall short even if you reverted to leading trumps.

In ranking the also-rans, Lines A and F are essentially the same and will succeed in the unlikely event West has 4=0=4=5 shape; Line F gets the edge per the voting. Line D is considerably worse because it requires West to have the J as well (without it, he could just win the A and return a spade). Worse still is Line B, which has no real chance other than misdefense.

What about Line C, you ask? Don’t laugh! It got four votes. This was just a test (ha-ha) to see if there were people who just guessed at answers. By the law of averages, this suggests about 24 random mouse clickers. While it really deserves zero, I will stick with tradition and award it 1 point (surely not my worst overbid).

Comments for E. Win 10; draw the missing trumps

Frances Hinden: West will not enjoy six rounds of trumps followed by a spade. I may have to decide very late which club honor East has (if either), but as long as West has the A, it is makable.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: I cash all the trumps but one. … With five cards left West cannot keep two diamonds, as this would mean [coming down] to a stiff ace, allowing me to get either two spade tricks or a spade and the K. I will keep K-Q-9 5 J in dummy. Now I will continue with a spade, planning to eliminate the diamond by ruffing and endplay West with another spade. …

N. Scott Cardell: This is the only way to strip-squeeze West. On the bidding West is likely to have both black aces, and if so, he can be squeezed. After drawing trumps I play three more rounds, discarding two clubs and a spade. Assuming nothing spectacular happens, I next lead the 10 (West must duck) to the king … then: If West has kept only one diamond (or none), ruff the diamond and lead a spade for the endplay. If West kept two diamonds, his A must be blank, so duck a club to set up the K.

Graham Osborne: West gets crushed on the run of my trumps. In the five-card ending he is forced to keep at least two spades and two clubs to stop an easy extra trick. [Then I lead] a spade to dummy, extract his last diamond with a ruff, and play another spade.

Tonci Tomic: … In the five-card ending South holds 10-5 x K-2, and North holds K-Q-9 5 J. If West holds A-Q and East the A, I’m dead anyway. If West has the A, he must keep two spades and two clubs to guard both of his honors. Now play a spade to the king, ruff the last diamond, then a spade. Cute.

Radu Mihai: I have to hope West has the A (otherwise West has A-Q and East has a sure entry to lead clubs). Lead six trumps keeping K-Q-9 5 J in dummy… West has to keep A-x… and duck when I lead a spade. Then if West has A-x left, ruff the diamond and throw in West with a spade; or if West has a blank A, lead the J and play small from hand. It’s easy to count West’s hand because his initial distribution should be 4=0=5=4.

Paulino Correa: From the auction, East cannot have four cards in spades, so West should be 4=0=5=4, or [possibly] 4=0=4=5; and he must have both black aces. I continue hearts, and with five cards remaining, West must keep A-x and A-x (and likely a diamond). I then lead a spade (West must play low) to the king, ruff a diamond, and another spade endplays West in clubs.

Daniel Korbel: I think West has A-?-x-x — K-Q-x-x-x A-?-x-x, or possibly A-?-x — K-Q-x-x-x A-?-x-x-x. To succeed, I must run six rounds of trumps. West is squeezed without the count, and I have an answer to anything he does.

Leif-Erik Stabell: After six rounds of trumps, West will be down to 2=0=1=2. Then play a spade to dummy, ruff the last diamond and exit in spades. West must give me a club trick in the end. (Better is for West to have 2=0=2=1 left, then I have to guess whether he has the A or Q. After the vulnerable 3 bid, it must be odds-on to play West for both black aces.

Ron Small: West will eventually be endplayed, either running out of diamonds or discarding a critical spade or club.

Gareth Birdsall: Run all but one trump and I can make if West holds both black aces. In the six-card end position, West will keep two spades, two clubs and two diamonds. If he discards a club on the penultimate trump, discard a club from dummy, play a spade to the king and duck a club return. If instead he discards a diamond, cross to K, ruff a diamond and exit with a spade for a club return into the king.

Hanchang Wang: Play West for the A and A. Win the 10 and continue four more rounds of hearts. In the six-card ending, dummy has K-Q-9 5 J-6; I have 10-5 x-x K-2. West has to keep two spades, two clubs and at most two diamonds. Lead one more heart, and West has to let go a diamond. Discard a club from dummy and lead a spade (West has to duck) to the king, ruff dummy’s diamond, and play a spade. West is endplayed and has to give me the K.

Zahary Zahariev: There isn’t another way. In the [five-card] end position [described], I play a spade to the king as West must duck, ruff a diamond, and lead a spade to [gain] a 10th trick in clubs. I must watch West’s discards closely.

Steve White: I can’t play spades too early; I need to reach a five-card ending with K-Q-9 5 J in dummy.

Sriram Narasimhan: Run trumps to catch West in a squeeze. After six trumps, dummy has K-Q-9 5 J, and I have 10-5 x K-2. If West bares the A, it is easy. If he bares the A, lead a spade first (West has to duck), then duck a club. If West keeps at least A-x and A-x, then he has at most one diamond, so lead a spade (West has to duck), ruff a diamond, then play a spade…

Franco Baseggio: West will be strip-squeezed. Run all but one trump, pitching one spade and two clubs; then play a spade to the king (West must duck). If the A is bare, duck a club; otherwise, ruff a diamond to complete the strip and play another spade.

Rainer Herrmann: Just run six rounds of trumps and watch West’s discards. If East has the A, the contract is likely to be doomed anyway.

Sivakumar Salem: … West is surely 4=0=5=4 (because East denied four spades with 1 NT), and the only way to make this hand is by a strip and throw in. After six rounds of hearts, West has to come down to five cards, which will be two spades, one diamond and two clubs; dummy will have three spades, one diamond and one club. Now when I lead spades, West will have to duck; win in dummy, ruff a diamond, and then a spade to throw West in. …

Toby Kenney: On the run of trumps, West will be squeezed. When I play the second-to-last trump, he must keep two spades and two clubs, and thus at most one diamond. Now I cross to the K, ruff the last diamond, and lead my last spade; West must win and concede a club trick.

Matej Accetto: I run six trumps, keeping three spades, a diamond and a club in dummy, and watch the old devil’s discards from his presumed 4=0=5=4 distribution. I play him for both aces (or at least the A and Q if I’m lucky)… I presume he comes down to two spades, a diamond and two clubs… then I lead the 10 to the king, ruff a diamond and lead my last spade, endplaying the Captain into giving me a trick at the end (even if he holds Q-x at that point). If the Captain comes down to a singleton A in the five-card ending, there is no trouble. If he comes down to a singleton club, however, I have to decide whether he has the Q or A. I’m not telling you which, of course; play it out with me and you’ll see.

Michal Nowak: Then [lead all but one trump] to execute a trump strip squeeze against West. Both the small diamond and the spade entry have to be preserved in dummy. …

Marcus Chiloarnus: The usual rumble in the jungle seems best.

Rob Stevens: Run six hearts reducing everyone to five cards. West must keep the A guarded, and therefore will come down to one diamond and A-x. Then when dummy wins the Q, I can ruff a diamond and endplay West. …

Daniel Bertrand: Continue playing trumps and come down to a five-card ending (dummy saves K-Q-9 5 J)… [Endplay described]. I guess that East might have bid 1 NT with a bad four-card spade suit, but the last time the Captain’s partner bypassed a major to bid notrump ahead of the Captain, he had to walk the plank.

Leon Jacobs: Easy, these double-dummy problems. West is known to hold 4=0=5=4 distribution with A, A and K-Q-x-x-x. On the run of diamonds, he must come down to A-x x A-x. [Endplay described].

Perry Groot: I have to play for a squeeze throw-in. Run all but one trump and cross in spades (West has to duck). Then I must decide if West has the A bare (duck a club) or A-x (ruff a diamond and throw West in with a spade).

Richard Stein: I was totally in the dark on this problem until Slim Tom, the parrot on Patch’s shoulder, squawked out, “Three-suited strip squeeze! Wraaaaauck!”

Klaas Naaijkens: If I lead all the trumps but one, West will come down to A-x x A-x. I will play a spade (he must duck); I will ruff a diamond, and put him in with the A.

Neelotpal Sahai: The Captain is mercilessly squeezed in three suits on the run of trumps. …

Sartaj Hans: Come down to five cards [ending described]. The real problem is going to be guessing the distribution, as if West is 3=0=5=5, then East didn’t bid a four-card spade suit. If West is 4=0=5=4, then he is bidding a four-card suit at the three level. In the modern world, everyone insists on rigidities of bidding four-card majors over one of a minor, so I’m likely to play West for four clubs.

Thijs Veugen: I play all trumps except one. West must hold A-x, Q and A-x. Now I play a spade to the king, ruff a diamond and endplay West with a spade.

Andrew de Sosa: I play West for 4=0=5=4 distribution, given East’s failure to bid 1 . West also must have the A because if he does not, then he must surely hold A-Q for his bidding. If I’m right, a funny thing happens on the run of the trumps. In the five-card ending, West must hold A-x A-x, so he can only afford to keep one diamond. [Endplay described].

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 5

Chicago Scoring None Vul	K 4 3 Q 5 4 3 A 10 4 A 3 2		Captain `West` 1 Pass All Pass	Patch `North` 2 3	Shipmate `EAST` Pass Pass Pass	You `South` 1 2 NT 4
Lead: K		East plays 10
4 South	A 5 2 A K J 7 6 J 3 2 6 4

West continues the J, won in dummy (East plays 5).
You next win A and Q; West (void) pitches 6 and 5.

Next Play Award Votes Percent
E. Lead 3 and pitch a spade 10 213 32
A. Ruff club; K; A; spade 7 142 21
D. Ruff club; lead 2 to 10 6 67 10
C. Ruff club; run the J 5 56 8
F. Lead 3 and pitch a diamond 4 27 4
B. Ruff club; K; K; A; spade 2 157 24

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
E. Lead 3 and pitch a spade	10	213	32
A. Ruff club; K; A; spade	7	142	21
D. Ruff club; lead 2 to 10	6	67	10
C. Ruff club; run the J	5	56	8
F. Lead 3 and pitch a diamond	4	27	4
B. Ruff club; K; K; A; spade	2	157	24

What looked like an easy endplay when dummy came down is now a difficult problem with the 4-0 trump break. (If trumps were 2-2 or 3-1, you could just draw trumps, ruff the third club, cash the top spades and exit with a spade.) If West has both missing diamond honors, it will still be easy, so assume they’re split. Consider this likely layout:

Chicago Scoring K 4 3 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
None Vul Q 5 4 3 1 W K 2 10 4
A 10 4 2 W J A 5 6
A 3 2 3 N 3 2 A 6
Q J 9 8 6 Table 10 7 4 S 6 5 Q 8
— 10 9 8 2 5 N 3 8 2! 7
K 9 7 5 Q 8 6 6 E 10 A! 8 3
K Q J 7 10 9 8 5 7 S 2! 7 10 Q
A 5 2 continued below…
A K J 7 6
J 3 2
4 South 6 4

First thoughts suggest some kind of elimination, followed by giving up the lead with the third round of spades, hoping to force a diamond lead from either opponent. Alas, Line A (ruff club, K-A, spade) can be defeated in two ways: East could simply ruff his partner’s trick and exit with a trump, or he could discard a club and West could lead either black card (if you ruff in dummy, East will overruff).

Line B (cashing a third trump before the endplay) does not help. While it prevents East from ruffing and returning a trump, you still cannot cope if West exits with a black card. The ruff-sluff does you no good, since East will overruff dummy; or if you discard from dummy, so will East, then you’re automatically defeated having to ruff with your high trump.

As on Problem 4, you must ignore the bogus endplays and think about a squeeze. West is marked with the only spade stopper, so a spade-diamond squeeze is in the works if you can rectify the count and keep your threats and entries intact. Line E (diagrammed above) is the only effective path, beginning with a loser-on-loser play. Assume a spade is returned, which you win with the ace. Next lead a diamond to the 10 and queen, which leaves East on lead in this ending:

win all K 4 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
5 4 8 E 7 5 9 K
A 4 9 N 4 9 K J
— 10 S J Q 5 10
Q J 9 Table 7 11 S 7 ?
— 10 9 West is squeezed
K 9 8 6
Q 9
5
K J 7
J 3
East leads —

The timing is now right for a squeeze, and East cannot destroy both of your entries to dummy. On a spade return, win the king and run trumps to squeeze West positionally in front of dummy. On a diamond return, the play is essentially the same, although technically it becomes an automatic squeeze.

Of the inferior choices, there’s not a great deal of difference. Assuming West hasn’t pitched a diamond from honor-third (a silly error), you will succeed if West has both the K-Q and fail otherwise.* Any of Lines A, C, D and F will achieve this with the proper follow-up, so they are equal in theory and ranked by the voting.

*Alternatively, you could play East for a doubleton honor, but you can’t combine this with the chance of West having K-Q. For example, if you lead the J (covered of course), you have to guess which case to play for.

Line B is the worst because it fails even with the K-Q onside. As in many endings involving trump control, it is a mistake to reduce yourself to only one trump in each hand. Make a note to avoid this one:

win 3 4 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
5 9 S 5 J 4 6
A 10 4 10 W K 4 7 2
— 11 W Q! 5 8! 3
Q J Table — 12 N A 10 J 9
— 10 Declarer fails
K Q 9 8 7 6
— 8
5
J
J 3 2
South leads —

No matter what you lead, you can win only two tricks. If you exit with a spade (Line B), East pitches a diamond; then West leads the K. If you win and draw the last trump, West gets the last two tricks. If you duck, West leads his last spade; and when you ruff in dummy, East pitches his last diamond to score a diamond ruff. Ouch.

Comments for E. Lead 3 and pitch a spade

Frances Hinden: West will get squeezed in the pointed suits as long as he has at least one diamond honor.

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: First step to prepare a spade-diamond squeeze against West, assuming he started with at least one diamond honor and five or six spades. I will follow-up later with a diamond to the 10, completing the count rectification. …

N. Scott Cardell: It looks like an endplay; it smells like an endplay; but guess what? It’s a squeeze. Congratulations on the fine disguise, Richard. The endplay would be 100 percent if trumps were not 4-0, but as it is I need another plan. … Fortunately, all I need is for West to have five or six spades and at least one diamond honor (I don’t need to guess his exact distribution). … If a spade is returned (best), win in hand and lead a diamond to the 10. [Ending described].

Graham Osborne: West gets squeezed in the pointed suits.

Tonci Tomic: Squeezing West in spades and diamonds. On a heart or spade return, take in hand and play a diamond to the 10. Then win any return and lead all the trumps to squeeze West. All I need is one diamond honor and five spades with West, a reasonable assumption.

Charles Blair: I plan to lead a diamond to the 10 later to set up a squeeze.

Radu Mihai: West didn’t make a Michaels cue-bid, so he probably doesn’t have a five-card minor. Looking at the way the cards have been played, I think West is 5=0=4=4. He also has at least one diamond honor (East would have discouraged on the first lead if holding both K-Q). Suppose the opponent who wins the club returns a spade; win in hand and play a diamond to 10. East wins and no matter what he leads, I’ll be able to squeeze West in spades and diamonds. The final position will be clear because I can afford to cash all the winners in one of the two menace suits.

Paulino Correa: West has five (or six) spades; and his diamond discard indicates that he had four (or five) diamonds, therefore not more than four clubs. If the missing diamond honors are split, I may build a spade-diamond squeeze against West. (West [should] have at least one of the diamond honors to justify his bid. If he has both K-Q, then one trick only will be lost in the suit, and the contract will be safe.) [Ending variations described].

Rob Balas: Squeeze time, assuming the diamond honors are split. … Win the spade return (best) in hand and hook the 10; win any return (spade best, I think) and run trumps. The K or A will be my connection to dummy, and West is toast.

The Captain is toast? That’s what I call a safety play… It just about guarantees you won’t leave the ship alive.

Malcolm Ewashkiw: This should set up a spade-diamond squeeze on West if it is needed (i.e., when the diamond honors are split).

Darek Kardas: To rectify the count.

Daniel Korbel: I should be able to set up a pointed-suit squeeze on West. The opponents can’t break up both my spade and diamond communications.

Leif-Erik Stabell: Win the spade return in hand, play a diamond to the 10, win the [spade or diamond] return in dummy and lead trumps, squeezing West in spades and diamonds. (If the defense leaves two entries in dummy, cash the A first to avoid a guess in the end.)

Gareth Birdsall: Rectifying the count for a spade-diamond squeeze on West. I will later play a diamond to the 10 to isolate the diamond menace.

Hanchang Wang: Play West for at least one diamond honor. … Win any return in hand and play a diamond to the 10. Later West will be squeezed in spades and diamonds.

Zahary Zahariev: For a simple squeeze in spades and diamonds against West. On a spade return (best), I’ll win with A; and after a diamond to the 10, East can’t remove both entries ( K and A).

Steve White: Beginning to rectify the count for a spade-diamond squeeze.

Sriram Narasimhan: Only chance is to develop a diamond trick, or some kind of endplay or squeeze. [None of the endplay attempts work]. Line E sets up a simple squeeze against West after ducking a diamond to East. …

Franco Baseggio: Win the return and play a diamond to the 10, eventually leading to a spade-diamond squeeze.

Rainer Herrmann: Start to set up the simple spade-diamond squeeze.

Sivakumar Salem: Assuming the lie of cards is unfavorable, the only chance is a squeeze. For that to mature, I need to rectify the count. … If a spade is returned, win in hand and lead a low diamond to the 10; if another spade comes back, win it and run trumps to squeeze West in spades and diamonds. Of course, diamond honors have to be split (not both with East).

Toby Kenney: Next I win the spade return and finesse the 10. East will be unable to return both a diamond and a spade, so West will be positionally squeezed when I lead trumps.

Matej Accetto: As long as both diamond honors are not with East (unlikely given the bidding), this secures the contract. On a diamond return, I play low from dummy and later finesse against the Captain’s honor. On a spade return, I win in hand and play a diamond to the 10, then squeeze the Captain in spades and diamonds.

Michal Nowak: Preparing for the spade-diamond squeeze against West. Next the count will be rectified by losing the 10 to East. Either the K or A will remain in dummy (there is no way for the opponents to remove them both).

John Reardon: Preparing to squeeze West… If a spade is returned (best), I win the ace and play a diamond to the 10; East wins but cannot stop me from running the trumps to squeeze West in spades and diamonds.

Rob Stevens: If trumps were 3-1, an endplay would suffice; but East can overruff the fourth round of spades, so this won’t work. The alternative is a squeeze against West (assuming he holds at least one diamond honor), and the only way to rectify the count without destroying a menace is a loser-on-loser play.

Sergey Kustarov: Preparing for a simple spade-diamond squeeze against West. Next move is to lead a diamond to the 10.

Leon Jacobs: West will lead a spade after this; I win in hand and finesse the 10. Hereafter, West will be squeezed in spades and diamonds when trumps are run.

Nice choice of adverbs with “hereafter.” After squeezing the Captain, you may be headed there yourself.

Perry Groot: … I can set up a spade-diamond squeeze on West. For this to succeed, West needs five or six spades (indicated by the bidding) and one or both diamond honors.

Richard Stein: Another moment of loss, but once more Slim Tom came to the rescue. One look in Tom’s piercing eyes told me about the spade-diamond squeeze eventually to materialize against West, for which I must start losing tricks immediately.

Douglas Dunn: To rectify count for a squeeze when West holds [one diamond honor]. I will win a spade return in hand, then play to the 10.

Paulinho Brum: … If West has [at least] one diamond honor, I have him. I’ll win the spade return in my hand and play a diamond to the 10. Later West will be squeezed, even if East can return a second spade after winning his diamond honor. This also wins against K-Q alone offside.

Klaas Naaijkens: If think I need diamond honors divided and the count rectified for a spade-diamond squeeze.

Leonard Helfgott: Rectifying the count with a loser-on-loser play allows West to be squeezed after losing a diamond to East (low to the 10) to isolate the menace. [Ending described]. The ruff-sluff endplays in Lines A and B are illusions because ruffing in hand promotes a trump trick for East. Line F (the diamond discard) is inferior because the [ J is then useless as a threat].

Neelotpal Sahai: The Captain will again be squeezed in the pointed suits. [This will fail] only if East has both diamond honors; but what is the likelihood of that?

Frans Buijsen: Preparing for the spade-diamond squeeze against West. I will later finesse the 10, thus taking out East’s diamond guard.

David Grainger: The diamond [discard] must be from four (unless East has both honors), so West is probably 5=0=4=4. After winning the probable spade return with the ace and playing a diamond to the 10, I will eventually set up a spade-diamond squeeze on West. …

Ron Landgraff: Planning a spade-diamond squeeze on West, who hopefully holds at least one diamond honor.

Neil Morgenstern: I wanted to make an elimination play but can’t because of the 4-0 trump break; and a partial elimination does not work. [Failing lines explained]. So I will pitch a spade [on the third club and next] lead a diamond to the 10, removing East’s honor card. [Assuming] the diamond honors are split, West will eventually be squeezed in spades and diamonds.

Bob Boudreau: Trying to set up a squeeze against West. I can win any return and lead low to the 10 before running the rest of the trumps.

Gerald Cohen: Rectify the count. Later I will lead a diamond to the 10 and expect to succeed on a spade-diamond squeeze.

Julian Wightwick: Endplays on West don’t work because he can just lead a fourth round of spades, so I will have to squeeze him. This loser-on-loser play rectifies the count. If they switch to spades, I next finesse the 10. They can knock out one of the K and A but not both; so when I lead trumps, West will be squeezed in the pointed suits (assuming he has a diamond honor).

Rich Pavlicek: To squeeze West in spades and diamonds.

Olivier La Spada: West will be squeezed in spades and diamonds after playing a diamond to the 10.

Ognian Smilianov: If a spade is returned (what else?), win the ace and lead a diamond to the 10, which is likely to lose. [Regardless of the return], running trumps will squeeze West in spades and diamonds.

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Problem 6

Chicago Scoring N-S Vul	J 9 5 K 9 A Q 10 A K J 9 4		Captain `West` Pass Pass	Patch North 1 4 ¹	Shipmate `East` Pass All Pass	You SOUTH Pass 1
Lead: 5		East captures K with A
4 South	K Q 10 4 3 4 3 2 4 3 7 6 5		1. What else. You’re on a roll.

East pauses a bit then leads the 2 (West will play the 6).

Next Play Award Votes Percent
A. Win K; lead 4 to queen 10 110 17
C. Win K; lead 7 to jack 8 218 33
F. Win 9; A; lead 5 6 120 18
D. Win 9; lead 5 5 41 6
E. Win 9; lead 9 4 116 18
B. Win K; lead 4 to 10 2 57 9

Next Play	Award	Votes	Percent
A. Win K; lead 4 to queen	10	110	17
C. Win K; lead 7 to jack	8	218	33
F. Win 9; A; lead 5	6	120	18
D. Win 9; lead 5	5	41	6
E. Win 9; lead 9	4	116	18
B. Win K; lead 4 to 10	2	57	9

Your chances aren’t too good this time, as the defense seems to have done exactly the right thing. Perhaps you should just give up a heart (Line E); then if the opponents counter with ace and another trump, you may only need a club finesse and reasonable breaks. Alas, that’s wishful thinking. Consider this typical layout:

Chicago Scoring J 9 5 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
N-S Vul K 9 1 W 5 K A 2
A Q 10 2 E 2 K! 6 5
A K J 9 4 3 S 3! 2 Q! 5
8 6 Table A 7 2 4 N 9 6 3 10
Q 10 7 5 A J 8 6 5 W 8 9 A 3
K 9 7 2 J 8 6 5 6 E 7 Q 7 J
Q 10 2 8 3 7 S 10 7 10 8
K Q 10 4 3 8 S 5 2 J 3
4 3 2 Declarer succeeds
4 3
4 South 7 6 5

If you give up a heart and the defense clears trumps, you would indeed get home; but there is a much stronger defense. Instead of leading a third trump, East should lead a third heart forcing dummy to ruff. Then you are dead in the water — which may be the case anyway when you try to leave this ship. You would be dummy-locked, needing a miracle.

Perhaps you should win the spade in hand and take an immediate club finesse (Line C). This is an improvement, but you still can’t go anywhere without forcing out the A, and the defense can still lock you in dummy with a third heart. Now you only need a small miracle (three trumps and three clubs in the same hand), but there is a better play.

What appears to be a “practice finesse” in diamonds is really necessary to establish communication. The proper play is Line A (diagrammed above). Once the finesse wins, you can succeed with any sensible play. You still need the club finesse, of course.

It is worth noting that the diamond finesse is a big favorite after East’s trump return at Trick 2. If East had the K, he could defeat you on any layout (barring an unlikely A-Q-J-10) by returning a low heart, so West could shift to a diamond before the A is dislodged. For this reason, some would argue that you should have played the heart nine at Trick 1… Whoa! Did you forget West was the nefarious Captain? Even after the lead, the A was even money to be onside.

Line B offers a possible alternative: Instead of playing West for the K and Q, play him for both diamond honors. Mathematically, the chances are identical, but the double diamond finesse is flawed. Suppose the 10 wins. How will you get back to your hand to finesse again? You can’t. The opponents can always lock you in dummy by winning the A and leading a third heart (or just clear trumps for that matter) so you will still need the club finesse.

In ranking the inferior choices, Line C is second best, needing to find three clubs and three trumps in the same hand. Lines D and F are next and essentially the same (cashing the A early offers no benefit since you can’t finesse anyway), needing the same black-suit distribution and the Q to fall doubleton. Line E is only slightly worse as it may also require the K onside (but that finesse is almost a given anyway). Line B seems the worst, depending on three finesses, one of which is truly for practice.

Comments for A. Win K; lead 4 to queen

Frances Hinden: Lines B, D, E and F all end up with the A cashed and dummy forced in hearts, leaving me stranded in the wrong hand. Line C is the intuitive line, but I end up needing the long spade to be with the long club. Line A is just on two finesses…

Gabriel Nita-Saguna: I can’t play on clubs right away,… for as soon as I play another spade, the defenders will lock me in dummy by taking the A and [leading] a third round of hearts. So it is imperative to create communication to my hand first.

N. Scott Cardell: For a change, I am out on a limb and need some real luck. East’s defense has been good, and he probably has the A (unless his spade return was more a lucky guess than good analysis). When I lead spades (or hearts), the opponents will now be able to win a heart and the A then lock me on the board with a heart return. … The point of the diamond finesse is simply to give me an entry to my hand if they do win the A and lead a third heart. …

Graham Osborne: Opening a communication route back to my hand.

Tonci Tomic: Horror. It looks like a practice finesse, but I need an entry to my hand badly. It seems I must rely on a 25-percent chance. Line C is close; in that case I need the Q onside and West to have 2=6=3=2 or 2=5=4=2 distribution. This looks inferior to Line A.

Charles Blair: The main thing to worry about with other lines is the defenders winning the A and playing hearts.

Radu Mihai: If I choose one of Lines C, D, E and F, the opponents will take the A and lock me in dummy with a [third] heart. I need to come back to hand to extract the last trump, and this can be done only if I solve the clubs without a loser and the opponent short in clubs is also short in trumps. A better chance is to play a diamond to the queen to prepare the needed entry. Then I’ll play a heart, and eventually need the club finesse also to be right. It’s not a very good chance, but it’s the best I have.

Leah Cohen: I need this “unnecessary” finesse to set up a way back [to my hand]. If the K is off, the defense could have defeated me — so, a free finesse.

Rob Balas: As I am on a roll, Q-x-x will be with West and trumps will be 3-2. OK, so I have some communication problems. There is a serious danger of being cut off from hand (the defense can lock me on the board by winning the A and leading a third heart). Therefore, I need to set up an entry while I still have the tempo, so I have to win in hand and hook the diamond. …

Malcolm Ewashkiw: I need both the Q and K onside for this to make. If I finesse the club first, the opponents can lock me in dummy. Finessing the Q keeps my entries fluid.

Darek Kardas: [Against most lines] the opponents have a brilliant defense: A and hearts twice, placing me in dummy. So it’s time to set up communication.

Daniel Korbel: Curiously enough, I think the diamond hook is working, else I’d be down already thanks to my trick-one slip. If I don’t take the diamond hook now, I’m getting dummy-locked soon with A and a heart tap.

Leif-Erik Stabell: To maintain communication in case the opponents next take the A and play two rounds of hearts.

Ron Small: With East’s defense, this is the only line that prevents A and a third heart (locking me on the board) since it provides a diamond-ruff entry back to hand.

Gareth Birdsall: There is a danger the opponents will win the second round of trumps and strand me in dummy with hearts. So I must win the K and take either the club or diamond finesse. The diamond finesse is a much better prospect since, if the K were wrong, the defenders would have killed the contract by returning a heart at trick two for a diamond return.

Zahary Zahariev: West has the K and clubs are 3-2, else East could return a heart for a diamond shift if he has K, or [either opponent could have led a singleton club]. So all I need is the Q in West. Sometimes, to play against experts is wonderful. [Needing] 3-2 clubs and two finesses is now a 50-percent chance. What a life!

Steve White: I must prepare an entry to hand if the opponents force dummy to ruff a heart.

Franco Baseggio: When I next play a major, the defense will win the A, Q, and tap dummy. The diamond finesse creates an entry back to my hand to draw trumps. Note also that the defense could have arranged to lead a diamond through if the king were offside, so this play is very safe.

Rainer Herrmann: I do not know what clue to draw from East’s pause, but getting locked in dummy will not increase my slim chances to succeed in this contract.

Sivakumar Salem: For this to make, both the K and Q must be onside… The reason for taking the diamond finesse first is so I can get back to my hand — otherwise I will be locked in dummy, forced to lose a fourth trick.

Michal Nowak: To avoid being stuck in dummy without majors and with untouched minors.

John Reardon: The diamond and club finesses seem the best hope. The trouble with Line C is that the defense can win the second spade and play two more hearts to strand me in dummy. Now I will require the hand with three spades to have three clubs, which is less likely than West having the K. … Moreover, unlike Line C, I do not require a 3-2 club break. All other lines seem markedly inferior.

Rob Stevens: I likely need the club finesse, but it won’t usually suffice because, after East-West take the A, they’ll play two rounds of hearts. Now I need three spades and three clubs in the same hand. It seems better to win the spade in hand and take the diamond finesse, which must be better than 50 percent… I can then play a second trump and later take the club finesse in comfort (with the luxury of trying to drop the singleton Q offside).

Daniel Bertrand: Worried that opponents will win the next round of spades then play two rounds of hearts, forcing me to win in dummy, and not being able to reach my hand to pull the remaining trump. West is marked with K from East’s failure to return a heart for a diamond switch before the A is removed. Then I will continue to pull trumps and hope for good things in clubs.

Sergey Kustarov: I need it! If I take the club hook successfully and play the J, the defense will take A and play two rounds of hearts to lock me in dummy…(then I win only if three clubs and three spades are in the same hand).

Leon Jacobs: Difficult play. If I don’t keep communication with dummy, there are several effective defenses possible. If I lead club to the jack (Line C) and it wins, then lead a spade (or heart) from dummy, the opponents win a spade, a heart and throw dummy in with the last heart. … [After the diamond finesse wins I will] come back to hand with a spade; if the opponents take the ace and [play two hearts], I ruff and come back to hand with a diamond ruff… Roughly, this succeeds if both finesses are on — but I am on a roll. :)

Perry Groot: Just think about what can go wrong. If I pull trump at some stage, East-West can continue hearts to lock me in dummy. Hence, Line A, because this allows me to enter my hand with a third-round diamond ruff.

Dale Freeman: I must have a way of getting off the dummy!

Douglas Dunn: East seems poised to endplay dummy.

Alex Kemeny: If the Q holds, I’ll lead a heart. The A will then appear, either because it is doubleton, or [deliberately] in order to stop the heart ruff. If the heart-ruff option is removed, I still have the option [to establish] clubs with the A entry.

Leonard Helfgott: Need to set up a diamond ruff as reentry, otherwise a forced heart ruff creates a dummy lock.

Frans Buijsen: I need to create an extra entry to hand (diamond ruff) else the opponents will play A, A and a heart, thus stranding me in dummy with no communication.

Tim DeLaney: The diamond hook [is necessary] to establish reentry to the closed hand. I play a spade next; if they duck, then A, diamond ruff, club hook, and run the clubs.

Neil Morgenstern: The situation is bad and I must hope for a favorable lie, and this means both the Q and the K onside. I must take the diamond finesse first so that, after I lose the second round of trumps (and opponents continue hearts leaving dummy without trumps), I can play ace and another diamond to return to hand to draw the remaining trump and finesse in clubs. … Line C fails because the opponents can win the second round of trumps and play two more rounds of hearts leaving me stuck in dummy.

Thijs Veugen: The danger is that I will be locked in dummy with A, heart and a heart ruff. In order to get back to my hand later, I have to take the diamond finesse now. This is more likely to succeed than long clubs being in the same hand as the long trumps.

Bob Boudreau: I need both minor finesses to work, but I have to [lead diamonds] first to insure an entry back to hand if they force dummy with a heart ruff.

Gerald Cohen: Problem is to avoid getting locked in dummy, which East can easily do by winning the second spade and leading two rounds of hearts. Both the silence of East (who appears to have two aces and a heart honor) and the fact that East didn’t return a heart (so he could beat me whenever the diamond lost) suggests the [diamond] finesse will win. This will help my entry situation considerably and enable me to get off dummy to draw trump. …

Julian Wightwick: I wonder if partner is still on my side here? Never mind, the game must go on. If the K were offside, my expert opponents would have crossed in hearts at trick two then switched to a diamond, so it looks onside. (I should have ducked at trick one.) I will need the club finesse as well; but if I take it at trick three, they will win the second trump and put me in dummy with two rounds of hearts. This way, I will be able to ruff a diamond back to hand to draw trumps.

Bill Powell: After a second trump, two more rounds of hearts will trap me on the board. This makes a way back to hand.

Roger Morton: If I went for trumps straightaway, good defenders would win the second round and lock me on the table with a third heart. On this line, I still need to bring in the clubs later.

Shyam Sashital: Lines D through F are flawed because the defense can lock me in dummy by playing two rounds of hearts. Given that a late entry to hand is needed (and the only safe one is in diamonds), I am left with no option other than to play West for K and Q. Line C will lose if clubs are 4-1. Hence, Line A is best.

Final Notes

Thanks to all who responded, and especially those who offered kind remarks about my web site.

Comments are selected from those above average, and on each problem only those supporting the winning line of play. While this might be considered biased, I feel it’s the best way to ensure solid content and avoid potential embarrassment by publishing comments that are flawed. On this basis, I included over 75 percent of the eligible comments. If you supplied comments that were not used, I thank you for the input.

Use of a comment does not necessarily mean I agree with it, but generally they are all worthy. Comments are quoted exactly except for corrections in spelling and grammar. Where I have included only part of a comment, an ellipsis (…) indicates where text was cut. Text in [brackets] was supplied by me to summarize a cut portion or fix an omission. Comments are listed in order of respondents’ rank, which is my only basis for sequencing. I am confident that my lengthy study of these problems, assisted by comments received, has determined the best solutions in theory, but oversights are possible. Feedback is always welcome.

It’s time to abandon ship! As we depart Lake Erie, some eerie remarks:

Rick Kelly: Did I lose my yacht as well as my money to the dark side?

Bill Cubley: Are you sure the ship is not the Griffin, first ship on the Great Lakes? It was sunk and never heard from again. If so, these problems may be worthy of the Hideous Hog from the Griffins Club.

Howard Byers: I was raised near Lake Erie and was actually on a lost ship (OK, it was a rowboat) in a storm many moons ago.

Wow; I guess they found you. I also grew up near Lake Erie (Willoughby Hills) but my experiences were less harrowing. When I was a kid my parents took me to Mentor-on-the-Lake for swimming lessons (at least that was their story). My Dad also took me fishing, and even ice fishing when the lake was frozen. I never saw any ghosts — just the usual saucer people I meet every day.

Analyses 7X08 Main Challenge Scores Top The Lake Erie Ghost Ship

Chicago Scoring	K Q 5 3		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
None Vul	6 3		1 W	J	3?	2	A
	A J 10 6 3		2 S	4	2	A	7
	K J		3 N	J	Q!	K	2
J 10 9 7		8 6 2	4 S	5	5	10	8
A J 9 4		K 5 2	5 N	3	9	3	7
2		Q 9 8 7	6 E	2!	10	J	3
9 7 5 2		Q 8 4	7 W	4	6	K	7
	A 4		8 E	5	8	9	5
	Q 10 8 7		9 W	A	6	6	Q
	K 5 4		Declarer fails
3 NT South	A 10 6 3

Chicago Scoring	J 6 4 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
E-W Vul	9 7 2		1 W	K	2	Q	6
	5 4 2		2 W	8	9	10	3
	A 6 5		3 S	A	Q	2	10
Q		10 9 8	4 S	K!	3	4	8
A K 8		Q J 10 5 4 3	5 S	5	4	J	9
Q 10 9 7		8	6 N	2	8	J!	Q
K J 10 4 3		Q 9 7	7 W	A	7	3	7
	A K 7 5 3		8 S	3!	7	4	4
	6		Declarer succeeds
	A K J 6 3
4 South	8 2

Chicago Scoring	A 7 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	A 2		1 W	6	A	7	9
	10 6 5 4 2		2 N	2	3	K	7
	K J 2		3 S	4?	7	K	3
K 10 2		Q 8 6 4	4 N	4	A	8	9
Q 10 8 6 5		J 7 4 3	5 E	4!	9	10	5
J 9 7		A 3	6 W	K	7	6	3
8 7		Q 10 3	7 W	2	A	8	J
	J 9 3		Declarer fails
	K 9
	K Q 8
3 NT South	A 9 6 5 4

Chicago Scoring	K Q 9 2		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
Both Vul	10 9 8		1 W	K	4	J	3
	A 5 4		2 W	6	A	7	8
	J 6 3		3 N	10	3	Q?	7
A 7 6 4		J 8 3	4 S	10	7	K	3
—		K 4 3	5 N	9	4	2	4
K Q 9 6 2		J 10 7	6 N	5	10	5	2
A 10 8 7		Q 9 5 4	7 S	5	A	2	8
	10 5		8 W	Q!
	A Q J 7 6 5 2		Declarer fails
	8 3
4 South	K 2

win 3	K Q 9		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	—		9 S	10	7	K	8
	5		10 N	5!	10	6	9
	J		11 S	5	A	9	J
A 7		J 8	West is endplayed
—		—
9		10
A 10		Q 9
	10 5
	6
	—
South leads	K 2

win all	K 4		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
	5 4		8 E	7	5	9	K
	A 4		9 N	4	9	K	J
	—		10 S	J	Q	5	10
Q J 9		7	11 S	7	?
—		10 9	West is squeezed
K 9		8 6
Q		9
	5
	K J 7
	J 3
East leads	—

Chicago Scoring	J 9 5		Trick	Lead	2nd	3rd	4th
N-S Vul	K 9		1 W	5	K	A	2
	A Q 10		2 E	2	K!	6	5
	A K J 9 4		3 S	3!	2	Q!	5
8 6		A 7 2	4 N	9	6	3	10
Q 10 7 5		A J 8 6	5 W	8	9	A	3
K 9 7 2		J 8 6 5	6 E	7	Q	7	J
Q 10 2		8 3	7 S	10	7	10	8
	K Q 10 4 3		8 S	5	2	J	3
	4 3 2		Declarer succeeds
	4 3
4 South	7 6 5